the outlook for energy - international energy forum...the outlook for energy: a view to 2040 kyle...

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Kyle Countryman

International Energy Forum

April 30, 2012

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes

in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future

Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and

analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission

of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

100 countries

15 demand

sectors

20 fuel

types

Energy Outlook Model

technology & policy


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2010 – 2040

0.9%

Energy Demand

Energy Saved

~500

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2015 2040

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

1990 2015 2040

Global Progress Drives Demand

Billion

Population GDP Trillion 2005$


2010 – 2040

0.8%


2010 – 2040

2.9%

OECD

Non OECD


0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Regional Energy Trends Evolve

Percent

By Region

Latin America

Middle East

Africa

Other AP

Southeast Asia

India

China

Russia/Caspian

Europe

North America


0

25

50

75

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD Efficiency Moderates Demand

Trillion 2005 $

OECD GDP

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2015 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD Demand

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD

North America

Europe OECD

Rest of OECD


0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2015 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

Non OECD Demand Trillion 2005 $

Non OECD GDP

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian

China

India

Middle East

Rest of Non OECD

Latin America

Africa

Russia/Caspian


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation

2010

2025

2040

Quadrillion BTUs

Electricity Generation Leads Growth


0

20

40

60

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Middle East Energy Trends

Billion

Population GDP Energy Demand Trillion 2005$ Quadrillion BTUs


2010 – 2040

1.4%


2010 – 2040

3.6%


2010 – 2040

1.8%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Middle East Energy Demand and Supply

By Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Transportation

Industrial

Electricity

Generation

Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Other


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Middle East Energy Demand by Country

By Country

Quadrillion BTUs

Iran

Saudi Arabia

UAE

By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Oil

Gas

Other

Iraq

Rest of Middle East


Transportation

90% By 2040, 90% of

transportation will run on

liquid petroleum-based fuels.


0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 2015 2040

Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth

Personal

MBDOE

Commercial

MBDOE

Light Duty Vehicles

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Vehicles


0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000 2020 2040

Million Vehicles Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type

Conv. Gasoline

Conv. Diesel

Hybrid

PHV/EV

Natural gas/LPG

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US Europe China Japan India

Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040 On-Road MPG

2010

2020-2025 Target

2015 Target

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency


0

100

200

300

400

500

North

America

Europe

OECD

Other OECD China India Middle East Latin

America

Other Non

OECD

PHV/EV

Full Hybrid

CNG

LPG

Diesel Conv

Mogas Conv

2040

Millions of Vehicles

Powertrain Technology Millions of Vehicles

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles


Industrial

30% Global Industrial

demand grows by 30%

from 2010 to 2040.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 2015 2040

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 2015 2040

Industrial Demand Shift Continues

Heavy Industry * Chemicals

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Quadrillion BTUs

China

India & Africa

Other Non OECD

* Steel, Cement and General Manufacturing


Electricity Generation

+80% By 2040, worldwide

electricity demand will be

80% higher.


Power Generation Mix Evolves


0

3

6

9

12

15

18

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Middle East Electricity

Electricity Generation by Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Electricity Demand

k TWh

Heavy Industry

Other Industry

Residential

Commercial

Renewables


0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

0

2

4

6

8

1990 2015 2040

k TWh

Gas

Nuclear Coal

Wind

Other Renewables

Gas w/ CCS

Coal w/ CCS

Electricity Supply Varies Globally

United States k TWh

China

Oil

k TWh

Europe

* Generation by Type


0

5

10

15

20

U.S. Europe China India

0

10

20

30

40

1990 2015 2040

CO2 Emissions Plateau

Billion Tons

By Region

OECD

Rest of Non OECD

India & Africa

China

Tons per Person Emissions per Capita

2010

2025

2040


0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar /

Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

0.7%

Quadrillion BTUs

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve

2010

2040

-0.2%

1.6%

2.2% 0.3%

6.0% 1.6%


2010 - 2040

0.9%


Supply

By 2040

60% of global demand will be

supplied by oil & gas.


0

1

2

3

4

5

2040

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

MBDOE

Liquids Supply

Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify

Conventional Crude and Condensate

Oil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

Tight Oil

Biofuels

Remaining

Resource

Cumulative

Production

TBO

Resource *

* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was

authorized in advance by IHS.


0

3

6

9

12

15

2000 2020 2040

0

3

6

9

12

15

2000 2020 2040

Technology Driven Supplies Expand Globally

MBDOE Deepwater by Region NGL by Region

MBDOE

North America

Russia-Caspian/Far East

Africa

Latin America Europe

North America

Far East

Africa

Latin America

Russia/Caspian

Europe Middle East


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2015 2040

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2015 2040

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 2015 2040

Natural Gas Grows in All Areas

Demand

Quadrillion BTUs

By Region

BCFD

By Sector

BCFD

Oil

Gas

Russia/Caspian

Asia Pacific

Africa

Latin America Industrial

Electricity

Generation

Other

Transportation

Coal

Middle East

North America

Europe

Res/Comm


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

North America

Europe

OECD

Asia Pacific

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

1000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

1.3

4.1

2.6

2.3

8.1

4.9

4.8

Global Gas Resource

Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD

•World: ~250 years coverage at current demand

•Large unconventional gains anticipated

World

Russia/Caspian*


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

2000 2020 2040

Gas Supply Grows and Diversifies

BCFD

United States

Local Production

Unconventional

LNG

BCFD

Europe Asia Pacific BCFD

Conventional

Pipeline

0

20

40

60

80

100

Energy Use Evolves Over Time

Percent

Global Percent Mix of Fuels

1800 1900 2000 1850 1950

Biomass

Coal

Oil

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

2040

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