The Nuclear Club

Who’s in? Who’s out?

And where do we go from here?

From Einstein to the A-Bomb

• 1930’s- Early research into atomic fission.

• 1940’s- US and Germany race to develop nuclear weapons.

• “Manhattan Project” in US

1945

• 1st US test of atomic bomb [“Trinity”]

• US drops 2 atomic bombs on Japan to end WWII

The Cold War: 1945 – 1990

• Massive nuclear build-up by US and USSR• Espionage• “Mutually assured destruction” [MAD]

1950s

• US and Soviet Union develop more powerful nuclear fusion weapons. [Thermonuclear]

• Atmospheric testing

IAEA: UN Nuclear watchdog

• Founded 1957 – International Atomic Energy Administration• Nuclear verification and security; safety; technology transfer.• Nuclear safety after Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.• Challenges possible proliferation - North Korea, Iraq, Iran

http://www.iaea.org/

Cold War nuclear crisis: 1962

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty:

• Non-proliferation

• Disarmament

• The right to peacefully use nuclear

technology

• 181 nations have signed

• Non-signers: India, Pakistan, Israel

• North Korea – withdrew in 2003

http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt/

NPT: Issues

• Reviewed every 5 years

• 2000 – Nuclear powers agreed to eliminate nuclear arsenals

• 2005 – Concerns by non-aligned nations that NATO nuclear-sharing agreement violates NPT.

• Nuclear powers not doing enough to reduce their arsenals

Today: Nuclear numbers

Emerging threats: Direct nuclear confrontations

• India – Pakistan

• US – Iran

• Israel – Arab nations

• North Korea – Japan/China/US/Others?

• China – North Korea? Russia?

Emerging threats

• Post-Cold-War “first-use” policy by NATO and Russia

• Continuing modernization of nuclear arsenals

Emerging threats

• Security and safety of nuclear stockpiles

• “Loose nukes”

Emerging threats

• Nuclear espionage • Illegal sales• Smuggling

In 2004, Dr. A.Q. Kahn, of Pakistan, admitted to selling nuclear technologies to Libya, Iran and North Korea

Nuclear Terrorism

• Dirty bombs

• High explosives plus radioactive material

Emerging threats:New nuclear nations

Emerging threats:Accidents

Nuclear weapons: The next generation

• “Small” nuclear weapons

• “Bunker-buster”• US - $5 billion per year for weapons

research, development, and production $3.8 billion during the Cold War.

Steps to prevent nuclear terrorism

• Secure nuclear warheads and materials

• Stop nuclear smuggling• Stabilize employment

for nuclear personnel• Monitor nuclear

stockpiles• Reduce nuclear

stockpiles• End production http://www.nti.org/

How much progress has been made so far? The good news…

• Glaring security gaps have been addressed in many places

• Thousands of bombs-worth of nuclear materials have been destroyed

• Radiation-detection equipment in place at many border crossings around the world

• Many nuclear scientists have been re-employed in non-weapons programs.

Progress: the bad news…

• US/India nuclear deal includes no provision for nuclear security

• Secure storage facility in Russia still empty

• Thousands of nuclear weapons and materials in insecure buildings and bunkers

• Thousands of nuclear workers with potentially dangerous nuclear knowledge do not have legitimate jobs

• 10,000+ bombs’-worth of plutonium still out there

Some questions to consider

• Why should any country be banned from having nuclear weapons?

• Is it the inherent right of a country to develop any weapons it feels necessary to defend itself?

• Is it even possible to ban a particular category of weapons?

• If you keep a country out of the Nuclear Club, do you lose the ability to influence its decisions regarding nuclear weapons?

More questions

• If the US—the world’s strongest power—feels the need to continue developing nukes, how can we expect less powerful countries to resist getting them?

• Can nuclear weapons themselves be viewed as a deterrent to war?

• Or, is “deterrence,” in effect, an incentive for more proliferation?

• What are the ethical and moral considerations for scientists who help develop new nuclear technologies?

• What role could your country play in making today’s nuclear world safer?

The Nuclear Club:What’s next?