the next 20 years: powertrains come and go: when, why ... · “mild hybrid 48v vehicles...

The Next 20 Years: Powertrains Come and Go: When, Why, What Next?

By Dr Peter Harrop

IDTechEx [email protected]

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Electric vehicles land, water and air are now one business for OEMs and component

manufacturers.

Industrial/ commercial market much bigger than cars.

Pure electric coming in fast for many reasons. “Silent city”.

End game for many vehicles is autonomous in navigation and task but autonomy hardware

will be commoditised. Software/ services big business.

Toxic gases and materials increasingly banned.

End game for far more vehicles will be energy independence usually using photovoltaics and

wind.

New electrical regeneration, structural electronics, power electronics become more important

and batteries less important.

Car sales will peak. Other sales carry on up. OEMs reposition.

Politics hugely changes powertrain demand. Example: China U turn - HEV 30% of sales

2030. Probably a steal on conventional and 48V mild hybrid.

Companies sharply change position. Example: Toyota and Volkswagen crash programs on

pure electric led by CEO.

Fuel cell hybrids will never gain major market share

Key takeaways: powertrains 2017-2037


Autonomy hits sales of cars but not of other vehicles

Four brief pure electric modes possibly available with 48V mild hybrids in

later years, so some will call them EVs

Peak ICE

Peak car

2035 “Last ICE car

made if global warming

plan met” CAT

48V

MHCONVENTIONAL

ICE

Peak electric

car 2035?

GOOD

NEWS!As cars suffer,

many new EV

markets open

up –

Personal

aircraft, robot

vacuum cleaner,

grass cutting,

delivery….

bus-taxis,

microEVs,

motorbikes,

boats,

Autonomous

Underwater

Vehicles….

Car decline mainly due to 70% living

in cities where cars are banned or

discouraged. One autonomous taxi-

bus replaces 20 cars?

Cars have exceptionally low utilisation so they are threatened by autonomy because that can lead to much higher utilisation as taxis.

Units K car market globally


Energy Independent Vehicle EIV

THE END GAMEis propelled entirely by electricity created on-board

from wind (when parked), sun, heat etc.

It may or may not have energy storage

Micro hybrid

means

conventional

vehicle with

system that

switches off

the engine

whenever it

stops. Some

regenerative

braking

Mild hybrid

means electric

torque assist

permits

smaller engine

Full

regenerative

braking

50-75%

cheaper than

full hybrid. 20-

30kW versions

will be possible

Plug-in Pure Electric Vehicle to EIV PEVis propelled entirely by electric motors. No fuelled engine on-board

Powertrain graphics by Continental

Not plug-in

Conventional vehicles able

to handle some energy harvesting

inputs Full hybrid is propulsion by electric

motor at low speed with engine off.

Full regenerative braking. Some plug

in for extra electricity/ electric range.

Pure electric vehicles where many forms of external and

regeneration harvesting by the vehicle are key enabling

technology

Electric vehicle powertrain evolution: typical figures expected for cars


Autonomy systems for volume are commoditised


Diesel is a four letter

wordNo more NOx, SOx, particulates, CO2,

noise or vibration please.

Lead is a four letter

wordNo more deaths and birth defects from

smelting, disposal please. No more

maintenance/ replacement hassle please

The law is getting

tighter. Public

attitude

hardening.The Porsche 625 kW 918 Spyder hybrid car

and many pure electric vehicles have

no lead-acid battery


Here comes multiple external energy harvesting:

IFEVS EIV pizza van self-powers travel, oven, lighting


Case Study: Hanergy Solar O

Spec

18kWh Li-ion Battery

Solar Surface: 2.5m²

Extendable Windshield increases surface area

to: 3.2m²

Energy acquired (max): 4.2kWh/day

Range: 125mi/200km (@28mph/45kph)

Gross weight: 1200kg (Carbon-fiber)

100% Powered by Solar

Launch date 2020


Type: Helium inflatable aerofoil aircraft: heavier-than-air vehicle

that can be filled with normal air or get performance

with helium, making energy autonomy more realistic.

Name: Solar Ship

Designer/ manufacturer: Solar Ship

Status: Concept . $Ms funding obtained

External energy harvesting: PV

Extreme powertrain efficiency: ?

Extreme lightweighting: Yes

Extreme aerodynamics/

hydrodynamics/streamlining:

• Yes within constraints

• Next generation energy storage:

• not known

Carries 35 tonnes cargo

Truck reinvented

Solar Ship EIV helium inflatable fixed wing aircraft Canada

autonomous, energy independent sun alone


Dielectric

Elastomer

Generators

Triboelectric

Nanogenerators

Powertrains reinvented

70 kWwind


The boat that climbs mountains: Vanquisher soon

Industrial vehicles often need

power surges

48V for safety. 45 degree slope.

Supercapacitor not battery

Switched reluctance motors

SiC and GaN semiconductors


LX1 “fundamentally a new machine” 98% new parts

Doing work of L150-size wheel loader

Key to Electric Site research ending 2018.

“We get much greater efficiency with electric. Unlike

mechanical/ hydraulic systems, with electric we

decouple, move everything around, change the way the

machine runs. Subsystems can be optimized

individually, so greater efficiency.”

Results:

• Electric motors on wheel hubs, Volvo eliminated axles, moved the

bucket close to centre = Lifts more with a smaller machine.

• Additional energy storage = smaller engine.

• Small electric motors propel the hydraulics. 50% better fuel

efficiency.

Volvo hybrid wheel loader + Pure electric autonomous carrier

“and this can go much, much further than a wheel loader”

Pure electric drive

train is compatible

with its autonomy


Trend to less

mechanical, more

electrical/electronic

LeTourneau

switched reluctance

motors near wheel,

solid metal rotor.


Traditional motor

controls, BMS get cleverer

External energy harvesting:

solar, wind, tide, wave, 6D

motion, etc.

V2H

V2G

Faster charger on-board, inductive

charger.

New regen. EH suspension,

triboelectric tires, turbine in hybrid

exhaust, 6D motion harvester

etc.

Power electronics

becomes much more

Less battery needed

as we progress to

energy independence

See IDTechEx reports


Read the IDTechEx reports such as,

“Electric Vehicles Will Change the World 2017-2037”

Overview with forecasts in 46 categories

“Energy Independent Electric Vehicles 2017-2037”

“Autonomous Vehicles Land, Water, Air 2017-2037”

“Energy Harvesting/ Regeneration for Electric Vehicles 2017-2037”

“Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2016-2031”

“Future Powertrains 2017-2027”

“Electric Boats and Ships 2017-2027”

“Electric Drones: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) 2017-2027”

“Industrial and Commercial Vehicles on Land 2017-2027”

“Energy Harvesting Microwatts to Megawatts 2017-2027”

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the next 20 years: powertrains come and go: when, why ... · “mild hybrid 48v vehicles...

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