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The Mobile Revolution Ewan MacLeod @ew4n

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Page 1: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

The Mobile Revolution

Ewan MacLeod

@ew4n

Page 2: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Topics

• About me – context

• Mobile: Size & scale

• M-commerce

• Implications for meetings• Implications for meetings

Page 3: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Mobile Industry Review

Page 4: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

About Me

• Founder of Mobile Industry Review

– www.mobileindustryreview.com

• 250,000 readers

• Consultant & Advisor• Consultant & Advisor

• Specialise in ‘innovation’, helping:

– Mobile operators, phone manufacturers, pensionfunds, banks, VCs

Page 5: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Mobile: This is big…

First let’s get some context

Page 6: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

At the end of 2011…

Page 7: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

Page 8: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

1.2 billionpersonal computers

Page 9: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

1.2 billionpersonal computers

1.1 billionfixed landline telephones

Page 10: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

1.2 billionpersonal computers

2.2 billionInternet users

1.1 billionfixed landline telephones

Page 11: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

900 million

1.2 billionpersonal computers

2.2 billionInternet users

1.1 billionfixed landline telephones

900 millionpay-tv subscriptions

Page 12: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

900 million

1.2 billionpersonal computers

2.2 billionInternet users

2 billion

1.1 billionfixed landline telephones

900 millionpay-tv subscriptions

2 billionemail users

Page 13: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

900 million

1.2 billionpersonal computers

2.2 billionInternet users

2 billion

1.1 billionfixed landline telephones

900 millionpay-tv subscriptions

2 billionemail users

970 millionregistered car owners

Page 14: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

900 million

1.2 billionpersonal computers

2.2 billionInternet users

2 billion

1.1 billionfixed landline telephones

900 millionpay-tv subscriptions

1.8 billioncredit cards

2 billionemail users

970 millionregistered car owners

(with atleast 1 card)

Page 15: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

900 million

1.2 billionpersonal computers

2.2 billionInternet users

2 billion

1.1 billionfixed landline telephones

900 millionpay-tv subscriptions

1.8 billioncredit cards

2 billionemail users

450 millionnewspaper circulation

970 millionregistered car owners

(daily)(with atleast 1 card)

Page 16: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

900 million

1.2 billionpersonal computers

2.2 billionInternet users

2 billion

1.1 billionfixed landline telephones

900 millionpay-tv subscriptions

1.8 billioncredit cards

2 billionemail users

450 millionnewspaper circulation

970 millionregistered car owners

(daily)(with atleast 1 card)

800 millionIM users

Page 17: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.7 billiontelevisions

900 million

1.2 billionpersonal computers

2.2 billionInternet users

2 billion

1.1 billionfixed landline telephones

900 millionpay-tv subscriptions

1.8 billioncredit cards

2 billionemail users

450 millionnewspaper circulation

970 millionregistered car owners

1.8 billionhouseholds

(with mortgage/rent/utility service)

(daily)(with atleast 1 card)

800 millionIM users

Page 18: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

4.2 billiontoothbrushes on the planet

Source: MMA Forum Asia via Tomi Ahonen

Page 19: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

5.9 billionmobile phone subscriptions

Source: MMA Forum Asia via Tomi Ahonen

Page 20: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

5.9 billionmobile phone subscriptions

Source: MMA Forum Asia via Tomi Ahonen

Page 21: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

6.4 billion by Jan 2013mobile phone subscriptions

Source: MMA Forum Asia via Tomi Ahonen

Page 22: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Unique mobile subscribers

4.8 billion phones currently in use

57% of the planet’s population has a mobile phone

Source: Ofcom

Page 23: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

WATER, ELECTRICITY

As a percentage of the human population, more people have access to amobile phone than electricity or running water

Page 24: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

$1.3 TRILLION

Total industry revenues in 2011 (services & hardware)

Page 25: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions
Page 26: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions
Page 27: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

87 countries have 100%+ penetration

Page 28: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.5 billion handsets sold last year

350m new TVs, 250m new DVD players, 400m new PCs

Page 29: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

1.75 BILLIONNew handsets sold this year – the prediction!

Page 30: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

MOBILE MOMENTBy December 2012, there will be more mobilesubscriptions than people on the planet

(7.1 billion mobile subscriptions vs 7 billion people)

Page 31: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

A glance at the revolutionunfolding…unfolding…

Page 32: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Mainframecomputers

1 million units in 10 years

Page 33: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Minicomputers 10 million units in 10 years

Page 34: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

The PC 100 million units in 10 years

Page 35: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Desktop Internet 1 billion users in 10 years

Page 36: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Mobile Internet

10+ billion units sold in 10 years

Page 37: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

It’s not a bubble, it’s a revolutionUnits sold/users in first 10 years

Source: Peter Pascale, Mobile Revolution presentation, MobileMarch 2011

Page 38: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions
Page 39: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

• 850,000 Android activations daily

• 300,000 babies born daily

Every day, more Android phones areactivated than babies are born

900,000 1,300,000 Android activations daily; 300,000 births planet-wide each day

Page 40: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

By 2020, half of all payments willbe transacted via mobilebe transacted via mobile- VISA

Page 41: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

27%36% of emailsare opened onmobile devicesmobile devices

Source: Knotice Report, 1H 2012

Page 42: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

The average person checks theirmobile 150 times per daymobile 150 times per day

Or every 6.5 minutes

Source: Nokia, Young & Rubicam MobileMani Report April 2010

Page 43: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

The average person checks theirmobile 150 times per daymobile 150 times per day

Or every 6.5 minutes

(82 times per day in Africa)

Page 44: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Who’s missing from the list? RIM!

Page 45: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Just looking at smartphones...

Page 46: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions
Page 47: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

This stuff changes quickly…

Page 48: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

It’s not just smartphones…

Page 49: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Tablets…

Page 50: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

eBay: A sale every second via mobile

$610m in 2009

$2 billion in 2010

$6 billion in 2011

$8 billion expected in 2012

Page 51: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Average of 4 sold per month via mobile on eBaySource: IAB 14th June 2011

Page 52: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

10% of UK teenagers think it’s fineto send an SMS while having sexto send an SMS while having sex

49% say it’s fine to text while eating

Source: Tomi Ahonen Consulting

Page 53: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

91% of mobile users keep theirphone within 1m (3ft) range 24/7,

even whilst sleepingeven whilst sleeping

Source: Morgan Stanley, 2007

Page 54: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

63% of the population do not sharetheir phone, ever, not even with

spouses/partnersspouses/partners

Source: Mashable, 8th May 2010

Page 55: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

What’s the consumer doing withmobile travel?mobile travel?A quick glance

Page 56: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions
Page 57: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions
Page 58: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Door Opening

Page 59: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Pre-arrivalrequests

Page 60: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions
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“Listed below is an assortment of amenities youcan select from in advance of your check-in”can select from in advance of your check-in”

Page 62: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions
Page 63: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Choice Hotels does $1m permonth through mobilemonth through mobile

Page 64: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

EasyJet does £1m in 4 weeksfrom their app

750,000 downloads so far…

Page 65: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Atlantis Hotel introduces mobilebooking for rooms & experiences

Page 66: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

IHG does $10-12m per monththrough mobile

“Fastest growing revenue“Fastest growing revenuechannel is mobile”

1,000% increase in bookings frommobile in 2010

Page 67: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Marriott does $25m/month viamobilemobile“India is 3% of that ($750,000/month)”

Source: Business Standard

Page 68: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

70% of Priceline’s mobile customersare booking for same-day check-inare booking for same-day check-in

34 US cities now have ‘tonight only’ deals

Faster, cleverer, cheaper…

Page 69: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

75% of Expedia’s mobile customersbuy to check-in within 24-hoursbuy to check-in within 24-hours

Page 70: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Carl Sparks, CEO, Travelocity

• Mobile will be 30-40% of our business in 5years

• "You might get together with a bunch of• "You might get together with a bunch offriends and say, "Hey, we should really go toVegas." And everyone leaves and forgetsabout it. With mobile, we actually book itright then."

Page 71: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

45 million Americans shoppedvia mobile in June 2012via mobile in June 2012

Nielsen, via Mashable, 6th August 2012

Page 72: The Mobile Revolution · email users 450 million newspaper circulation 970 million registered car owners (daily) (with at least 1 card) 800 million IM users. 1.7 billion televisions

Thank you!

[email protected]

@ew4n