The Long View: Trends in Policies to Address Mobile

Sources Around the World

Dr. Miriam Lev-On

The LEVON Group, LLCThousand Oaks, California

UCLA Research/Policy Symposium:Lake Arrowhead, California, 17 October 2005

The issue at a glance . . .

Growth, development & energy demand Energy is the fuel for growth, an essential requirement

for economic and social development. Energy demand could double or triple by 2050 as a

result of development.

Facts and trends

The dynamics of technological change Global technological change is a lengthy process,

measured in decades. Very large systems such as transport and energy

infrastructures can take up to a century to fully develop.

How will our energy system develop?

Prim

ary, En

ergy, E

J

200

0

400

600

800

1000

1200

1920-1930’s

Coal economyCoal economy

OECD countries

Non-OECD countries

Development of oil, gas and large-scale hydro, introduction of nuclear.

Development of oil, gas and large-scale hydro, introduction of nuclear.

2000

New renewables such as wind and solar

New renewables such as wind and solar

The transition is uncertain?The transition is uncertain?

2050

Low

High

Source: IEA Scenarios

The lifetime of energy infrastructure

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++

The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment

Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years

Nuclear 30 – 60 years

Coal power 45+ yrs

Hydro 75+ years

Gas turbines 25+ years

Buildings 45+++ years

Light duty vehicles trends

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total vehicles, millions

Total alternative vehiclesTotal traditional vehicles

Annual total vehicle growth of 2% p.a.Annual vehicle production growth of 2% p.a.

Large scale "alternative" vehicle manufacture starts in 2010 with 200,000 units per annum and grows at 20% p.a. thereafter.

Source: WBCSD, 2004; Mobility 2030

Air quality and public health nexus Health protective ambient air quality

standards: Pb, SO2, NO2, CO, O3 and PM (PM10 /

PM2.5) Visibility Impairment and Regional

Haze: Linked to fine particles

Air Toxics exposure outdoors Vehicles emit directly in the breathing

zone Linkage between local air quality

and global climate Transboundary transport

LA Smog

Elements for a worldwide science-based air quality management process

Identification of air quality problems by monitoring,

Development of Emissions Inventories and pollutant fingerprinting for pinpointing problem areas,

Assessment of needed emissions reductions to meet air quality goals within an appropriate attainment timelines,

Definition of needed air pollution regulations to achieve the required emission reductions,

Adoption and implementation of defined regulations,

Periodic review of the plan to improve itTel-Aviv Dust Storm

What is transportation share of emissions?

Still a major contributor, despite reductions in new vehicle emissions achieved over

the last decade

CO

NOx

Lead

VOCs

CO2

Particulates

79%

53%

13%

44%

33%

25%

SO2

7%

Source: US EPA

Developed countries have reduced local emissions

Why is action difficult in the transport sector?

Fragmented and self interested actors Tensions between transport and

environmental policies Increase mobility and improve goods

movement – Vs.- Reduce emissions and adverse

environmental impacts Developing countries problems

Lower incomes, poorer resource base Old fleets, low replacement rates No maintenance culture Very low quality fuels and fuel

adulteration Poor public sector administrative

capabilityCairo

International initiatives to address transportation related air quality

Plethora of initiatives have sprouted over the last decade World Bank Clean Air Initiative UN Partnership for Clean Fuels

and Vehicles US DOE Clean Cities International And the list is growing

Developing countries are rushing to adopt US or EU style emissions and fuel standards

Systematic air quality planning is sprouting in many regions

Improvement of Emissions & Efficiency

Use of Clean, Alternative & Renewable Fuels

Reduction of Vehicle Miles Traveled

Common elements of the strategies envisioned

Typical Developing Country Context Little quantitative assessment of

air quality problem High PM emissions from heavy-

duty vehicles and 2-3 wheelers Old vehicle fleets, second hand

vehicle imports, low maintenance, Lack of inspections - fuel

adulteration Weak enforcement of rules and

performance standards Poor traffic management

India

Emerging Planning Tool - International Vehicle Emissions (IVE)

Goal - Provide a more accurate method to estimate on-road emissions worldwide

Accomplishments - Developed IVE computer model for

estimating emissions Developed methodologies for vehicle

operating parameters and local fleet distribution (applied in 11 cities worldwide)

Developed methodology for on-road vehicle emission testing to improve model performance (applied in 3 cities worldwide)

Reports and Modelwww.issrc.org/ive

Courtesy: Jim Lents et. al.

IVE - Observed Vehicle Class Distribution

IVE - Observed average driving characteristics

IVE - Fleet Average Emission Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

CO/10 VOC NOx PM*10 CO2/40

Em

issi

on R

ate

(g/k

m)

Los Angeles Nairobi Santiago Pune Mexico Sao Paulo Lima

Key Factors for Success It is critical to have goals and timelines along with a

commitment to cleaner air A science based air quality management process is

essential including regular reviews and enhancements

Air Quality Management must be integrated between pollutants, consider other media (such as water and land impacts), and follow public trends

Cost-Benefit analyses should be strengthened in order to ensure proper spending of limited public resources

Engagement of all stakeholders is a key to creating the political will to take on tough issues

The issue at a glance . . .Where do we go from here?Reshaping our energy future By 2050 energy demand will be sharply higher, Global emissions must be no higher than today and

trending downward, No single solution will deliver this change.

What should we focus on? Environmental goals, quality and equality Discussions with governments regarding the

‘fuel&vehicle’ systems approach Dissemination of new technologies for new vehicles and

for retrofits of existing ones Proper enforcement of laws and regulations Rethinking the integration of transportation and quality of

life issues