the impact of the syrian crisis on the lebanese power sector and … · 2017-03-01 · part 1....

The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on the Lebanese Power Sector and Priority Recommendations: Part 1. Survey & Methodology

Ministry of Energy and WaterEnergy Sector WorkshopTuesday February 21, 2017

Presented by Mohamad Naim

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SITE SURVEY

A representative survey to 350 Syrian families and 60 institutions across thecountry was undertaken in July 2016.

Survey samples were selected based on the number of registered displacedSyrians in each village as per the UNHCR data as of June 30, 2016.

The survey concentrated on collecting information related to the No. of familiesand persons living in each shelter unit (Non IS and IS) and the available householdappliances in each shelter unit.

Region Population % of Total No. of Samples

Beirut & ML 298,702 28.50% 110

Bekaa 375,312 35.80% 100

North 255,194 24.34% 80

South 119,059 11.36% 60

Total 1,048,267 100% 350

The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on the Lebanese Power Sector and Priority RecommendationsI. - Survey II. Methodology

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Two scientific approaches are adopted to calculate the power consumption of

the displaced Syrians in Lebanon:

Through sampling/survey data to calculate the power consumption of each

shelter unit based on the available household appliances irrespective of the

number of persons living in each shelter unit.

Through analysis of the load profile of EDL MV feeders supplying each

region during the period 2012 – 2016, taking year 2012 as the base year, and

correlating the increase in load on each MV feeders with the number of

displaced Syrians in the region supplied by the particular feeders.

METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY - ADOPTED APPROACHES


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METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY - SAMPLING/ SURVEY DATA APPROACH

Calculated the Total Connected Load (TCL) of the available household

appliances in each shelter unit as per the survey data.

Calculated the Average Connected Load per shelter unit.

Calculated the Average Power Consumption per shelter unit.

For Non IS shelter units, a factor of 0.5 (Demand Factor * Diversity Factor)

is applied to calculate the Average Power Consumption per shelter unit.

For Non IS shelter units, the number of families is converted to number of

shelter units using the survey data.

The Total Power Consumption is calculated by multiplying the Average

Power Consumption per shelter unit * NR of units for each shelter type.


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SURVEY DATA

Average Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon as per Survey Data

Survey Data

RegionShelter

Type

No. of Visited

Shelters

Total No. of Units in Visited

Shelters

% of Total No. of

Units in Visited

Shelters

No. of Persons in

Visited Shelter Units

No. of Families in

Visited Shelter Units

Average No. of

Persons/ Family

Total Connected

Load of Household Appliances of Visited

Shelter Units (kW)

Average Connected

Load of Household Appliances

/ Shelter Unit (kW)

Average Power

Consumption/

Shelter Unit (kW)

Average No. of Supply

Hours/ Day

Beirut & ML

Non IS 83 148 64% 428 91 4.70 230.450 2.777 1.388 8

IS 27 85 36% 185 38 4.87 17.850 0.661 0.661 6

Total 110 233 100% 613 129 4.75 248.300

Bekaa

Non IS 38 130 11% 226 58 3.90 78.750 2.072 1.036 12

IS 62 1,002 89% 484 72 6.72 68.150 1.099 1.099 15

Total 100 1,132 100% 710 130 5.46 146.900

North

Non IS 56 580 48% 427 76 5.62 106.850 1.908 0.954 9

IS 24 623 52% 169 37 4.57 18.400 0.767 0.767 8

Total 80 1,203 100% 596 113 5.27 125.250

South

Non IS 31 143 69% 162 31 5.23 81.050 2.615 1.307 6

IS 29 64 31% 154 31 4.97 54.050 1.864 1.864 5

Total 60 207 100% 316 62 5.10 135.100


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METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY - ANALYSIS OF EDL DATA APPROACH

1. Econometrics and forecasting techniques are employed to validatethe monthly power consumption calculated using EDL data takinginto consideration the seasonal variation in power consumption.

2. Taking the South region as a sample, the Average Peak PowerConsumption per Family is shown in the table below.

Column 1

Year

Column 2

Average

Loads

(AMP)

Column 3

Population

Growth

Column 4

Estimated

Loads

Base Year

2012

(AMP)

Column 5

Load

Growth

Base Year

2012

(AMP)

Column 6

Adjusted

Average

Loads

Per

Quarter

(AMP)

Column 7

Change

in

Adjusted

Average

Annual

Loads

(AMP)

Column 8

Change

in

Adjusted

Average

Annual

Load

(KW)

Column 9

Change in

Number of

Families

(Base

Year 2012)

Column 10

Average

Consumption

per Family

(KW with

Base Year

2012)

2012 20,427 20,427 0 20,427

2013 23,686 1.222% 20,676 250 23,437 3,010 62,558 21,462 2.915

2014 23,291 1.180% 20,920 494 22,797 2,371 49,269 30,263 1.628

2015 21,757 1.182% 21,301 874 20,882 455 9,466 27,949 0.339

2016 23,741 1.182% 21,689 1,262 22,479 2,052 42,654 26,457 1.612

Average 1.623


The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on the Lebanese Power Sector and Priority Recommendations: Part 2. Study Results, Recommendations & Prioritization of Interventions

Ministry of Energy and WaterEnergy Sector WorkshopTuesday February 21, 2017

Presented by Robert Sfairy, PMPSenior Energy Consultant - MoEW

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The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on the Lebanese Power Sector and Priority RecommendationsI. - Study Results II. Recommendations III. Prioritization of Interventions

I. STUDY RESULTS

II. RECOMMENDATIONS

III. PRIORITIZATION OF INTERVENTIONS

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STUDY RESULTS

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STUDY RESULTS

• As per the survey results, the direct average electricity consumption of the Displaced Syrians was determined per type of shelter unit and per region with an overall average of 1.16KW/shelter

• The survey results were validated by comparing to actual EDL historical data for the south region

• Transmission and distribution technical losses were considered to obtain the overall impact

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STUDY RESULTS• Indirect electricity consumption of the Displaced

Syrians was also noticed as follows:

- In Schools hosting Syrian students having to work additional 4-hour shift, knowing that there are 85,487 displaced students in 238 schools across Lebanon

- In Municipalities/Water Establishments having to operate water pumps for longer hours to cover the increase in water demand in each area

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STUDY RESULTS

• The study considered different scenarios based on two variables:

1. Number of Displaced Syrians(Spread over 84% of the villages in Lebanon)

• UNHCR data as of June 30, 2016 -1,048,267• DGGS data – 1,500,000 (+10% to +23%)

2. Number of supply hours per day per region• Survey data (average 9 hours)• EDL data (average 14 hours)

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STUDY RESULTS

Scenario 4 - DGGS Data (1,500,000 D.S.)

MW GWHr / Year

Direct Impact 447 2,310

Indirect Impact 39 25

Schools 2.724 2.833

Hospitals - -

Municipalities 36.297 22.650

Total 486* 2,335**

* Around 30% of EDL power generation** Around 19% of EDL energy production per year

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STUDY RESULTS

Beirut & ML, 163, 37%

Bekaa, 140, 31%

North, 87, 19%

South, 57, 13%

Regional Distribution of Direct Power Consumption

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STUDY RESULTS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Aley Baabda Beirut Chouf El Meten Jbeil Kesrwane Total

26,645

40,341

13,666

21,750 28,039

3,1528,411

142,003

No. of Persons

No. of Families

No. of Shelter Units

Power Consumption (KW)

Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon per Caza (DGGS Data) - Beirut & ML Region

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Baalbak El Hermel Rachaya West Bekaa Zahle Total

42,513

1,714 2,98520,118

54,168

121,498

No. of Persons

No. of Families



Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon per Caza (DGGS Data) - Bekaa Region

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Akkar Bcharre El Batroun El Dennie El Koura Tripoli Zgharta Total

30,285

7453,850 16,496

4,61716,368

3,455

75,816

No. of Persons

No. of Families



Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon per Caza (DGGS Data) - North Region

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Bent Jbeil El Nabatieh Hasbaya Jezzine Marjeyoun Saida Sour Total

3,0009,848

2,649 1,2223,310

18,468 11,189

49,686

No. of Persons

No. of Families



Power Consumption of Displaced Syrians in Lebanon per Caza (DGGS Data) - South Region

Demand was obtained at the governorate level as well at the caza level

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STUDY RESULTS

1. Most of the shelter units do not have basic household appliances (fridge/washing machine) due to insufficient power capacity and quality, so power demand is expected to increase if power quality and capacity are improved

2. An average of 45% of the surveyed shelters do not have metered electricity connections (range from 36% in the North to 82% in Beirut & ML), which increases the grid non-technical losses

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STUDY RESULTS

3. Increased demand, causes an additional burden on the already weak electricity network by damaging distribution transformers, cables, fuses, breakers, etc…

4. Weakens quality of the supplied power in some areas where private diesel generators are turned ON even during EDL supply hours due to high voltage drop

5. Increases further the already high grid technical losses

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RECOMMENDATIONS

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RECOMMENDATIONS

Short Term

• Energy Saving Bulbs• Solar Water Heaters• Solar Kits up to 2.5 KW• Net-metering (Bulk Industrial/Commercial

Customers)• Upgrade & Rehabilitate the MV/LV Distribution

Network

Demand Side Management

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RECOMMENDATIONS

Medium Term (5 years)

• Distributed Generation Sources (DER) in areas with power demand up to 10 MW

• Street Lighting Retrofit (Sodium lamps to LED)• Grid connected PV plants• Wind Turbines/Farms (West Bekaa and Akkar)• Hydro Plants (Refurbishment/New)• PV Direct Water Pumping Technology (Irrigation &

Water Distribution)• Upgrade & Rehabilitate the Transmission Network

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RECOMMENDATIONS

Region

Caza Information Specific Recommendations

Caza NameTotal No. of

Persons

Total Power

Consumption

(KW)

Energy

Saving

Bulbs

Solar

Water

Heaters

Replace

Street

Lights

Solar

Water

Pumps

Solar Kits

Distributed

Generation

Resource

(DER)

Grid-

Connected PV

Plant

Reinforcement

of EDL Network

Refurbishment

of Hydro Plants

Beirut & ML

Aley 84,876 26,645 X X X X X

Baabda 126,741 40,341 X X X X

Beirut 36,656 13,666 X X X X

Chouf 72,275 21,750 X X X X X

El Meten 74,278 28,039 X X X X

Jbeil 9,237 3,152 X X X X

Kesrwane 23,361 8,411 X X X X

Bekaa

Baalbak 177,276 42,513 X X X X X X X

El Hermel 8,669 1,714 X X X X X

Rachaya 14,189 2,985 X X X X X

West Bekaa 92,098 20,118 X X X X X X X

Zahle 244,814 54,168 X X X X X X

North

Akkar 144,444 30,285 X X X X X X X

Bcharre 3,883 745 X X X X

El Batroun 20,020 3,850 X X X X

El Dennie 81,398 16,496 X X X X X X

El Koura 22,901 4,617 X X X X X

Tripoli 74,906 16,368 X X X X X X

Zgharta 17,611 3,455 X X X X

South

Bent Jbeil 11,133 3,000 X X X X X

El Nabatieh 35,606 9,848 X X X X X

Hasbaya 7,956 2,649 X X X X X

Jezzine 4,302 1,223 X X X X X

Marjeyoun 10,536 3,311 X X X X X

Saida 61,822 18,469 X X X X X

Sour 39,010 11,189 X X X X X

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PRIORITIZATION OF INTERVENTIONS

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PRIORITIZATION OF INTERVENTIONS

• Areas where there is no EDL grid or insufficient capacity to operate basic household appliances: Akkar, West Bekaa, Dennie

• Areas of high settlements concentration: Baalbak, West Bekaa, Akkar, Tripoli, Dennie, Saida

• Areas where PV solar kits and solar water heaters are easy to install: Baalbak, Hermel, Rachaya, West Bekaa, Zahle, Akkar, Dennie, Tripoli, Nabatieh, Saida, Sour

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Robert Sfairy, PMPSenior Energy Consultant - MoEW

[email protected]

the impact of the syrian crisis on the lebanese power sector and … · 2017-03-01 · part 1....

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