The Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project

“environmental stress, often the result of global environmental change coupled with increasingly vulnerable societies, may

contribute to insecurity”

GECHS Science Plan

Purpose:

• Review development of GECHS.

• Highlight recent activities and planned research

• Discuss GECAFS:CFS - GECHS linkages

INTRODUCTION

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GECHS Origins

• Redefinition of traditional security concepts

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• Human security & the Canadian/international policy agenda

• Environment & economy linkages

• Critical zones mapping

Key Questions Underlying GECHS

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• What types of environmental change threaten human security?

• How does environmental change threaten human security?

• What is the present extent of insecurity?

• Which regions and groups are the most insecure?

• Why are some regions and groups more vulnerable to specific environmental change than others?

• Can we predict future insecurities?

Context:

What strategies are potentially available to cope with the insecurities caused by environmental change?

Response Options:

• Why are some strategies selected?

Analysis:

• Why are some effective?

• How can obstacles be overcome?

Human Security Defined

Human Security is :• having the options necessary to end, mitigate or adapt to threats to their human, environmental and social rights; • participating in attaining these options; & • having the capacity and freedom to exercise these options.

Improving human security means improving livelihood

Human security is the capacity

to overcome vulnerability

and to respond positively

to environmental change

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GECHS Goals

• to advance interdisciplinary, international research

• to advance policy efforts in the area of human security & environmental change

• to promote collaborative & participatory research

• to encourage new methodological approaches

Current Project Structure

• International Project OfficeUniversity of Victoria (99-02)Carleton University (02-present)

•Project ChairMike Brklacich, Carleton University

• Scientific Steering CommitteeAustralia, Cambodia, Canada, Costa Rica, Netherlands, Ghana, Norway, Russia, USA

• Project Website: www.gechs.org

• Research Themes & Projects

• Three GEC Vulnerability Case StudiesHuman Insecurity Index (Macro)Double Exposure in India (Macro & Micro)Food System Vulnerabilities: Canadian Cases (Micro)

GECHS ACTIVITIES

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GECHS ResearchThemes & Activities

1. Conceptual & Theoretical Issues

2. Environ., Resource Use & HS

3. Population, Environment & HS

4. Modelling Environmental Stress & Human Vulnerability

5. Institutions & Policy Development in Environmental Security

6. Policy Briefings

Human Vulnerability:Science – Policy Linkages

• Identify vulnerable populations/regions• Assess interventions to reduce human

vulnerability• Trade-offs between improving adaptive

capacity vs mitigation vs multi-dimensional responses

• National Level Study• Employ Existing Data• Illustrate Current Potential & Applications

Human Insecurity Index

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PI: S. Lonergan

Reminder: Human Security

Human security is having the capacity to overcome vulnerability andrespond positively to global

environmental change

Multi-dimensional indicators required

Human Insecurity Indicator SetEnvironment

Net energy imports (% of energy use)Soil degradation (tonnes/yr)Safe water (% of pop with access)Arable land (ha/person)

EconomyReal GDP (USD/capita)Annual GNP growth

(%/capita)Adult literacy rate (% pop 15+)Value of imports (% of GDP)

Indicator Set Cont’d

SocietyUrban pop growth (%/yr)Young male pop (% 0-14 of tot pop)Maternal mortality (per 100,000 births)Life expectancy (yrs)

InstitutionsPublic expenditures: defense vs

social services (% of GDP)Gross domestic fixed investment(%GDP)Degree of democratization (1-7)Human freedoms index(1-40)

Index of Human Insecurity Example

Source: Lonergan 2000

Climatic Change and Economic GlobalizationIn Indian Agriculture: Policy Implications

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PI: K. O’Brien

Main Objectives

• Assess vulnerability of agriculture to climate change and economic changes

• Assess how social and economic policies enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change in the context of globalization (e.g., by limiting/increasing choices)

• Suggest measures to reduce vulnerability of farmers to global change

Context

• Agriculture in India– 27 % GDP– 700 million people– more than 60 % is rainfed cultivation

• Both climate change and economic globalization are ongoing processes with uneven impacts.

• Indian agriculture will be confronted by both processes simultaneously, leading to changing patterns of vulnerability.

Methodology

• GIS-based vulnerability profile• Village-level case studies• Integration of macro- and micro- scale

analyses• Policy survey and recommendations

Vulnerabilityindex

Globalizationvulnerability

Climate change

vulnerability

Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and cover• Flood prone districts• Groundwater extraction

Socioeconomic vulnerability• Agricultural workers and laborers• Gender discrimination• Literacy• Infrastructure• Irrigation availability

Elements of Vulnerability Profiles

Climate sensitivity index (precipitation variability and dryness)

Trade sensitivity index (port distance and export- & import- sensitive crops)

Data not available

High vulnerability

Low vulnerability

Climate change vulnerability map

High vulnerability

Globalization vulnerability map

Data not available

Low vulnerability

Data not availableHigh vulnerability

Low vulnerability

Jhalawar district, Rajasthan

Village-Level Case Studies

To assess key factors which enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt

Pilot study in Jhalawar district, Rajasthan

• semi-arid• 84% rural population• 30-40% below poverty line• 50-70% land under

cultivation• 21% area irrigated

Unequal access to markets, irrigation, credit, and other non-price inputs

Case Study Results: 1

Case Study Results: 2

Different Strategies for Coping with Climate Stress

• Shift towards less water-intensive crops• Change net cropped area• Seasonal migration to Gujarat for construction-

related employment

Next Steps

• Feedback of case study results into macro-level vulnerability profile

• Develop matrix relating globalization, climate vulnerability, and policies for agriculture sector

• Recommendations for adaptation to reduce vulnerability to multiple aspects of global change.

•Renfrew County 1995

• RMOC 1998

• On-going 2002-05

Eastern Ontario, CanadaCase Studies

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PI: M. Brklacich

• Whole farm decision making focus• Embedded climatic change• Focus group I• In-depth personal interviews

Renfrew: 30 RMOC: 55• Interview structure

Farm characteristicsPrevious farm changesPerceived climatic changeClimatic change scenario

•Focus group II

Renfrew & RMOC Case Studies

RMOC CASE STUDY:

FARM MGT CHANGES 87-97

0

20

40

60

80

100

Livestock Farms Diversified Farms

% of FarmsResponding

RMOC CASE STUDY:PERCEIVED CLIMATIC CHANGE 77-97

0

5

10

15

20

25

Livestock Farms n=27 Diversified Farms n=28

No of

Farms

RMOC CASE STUDY: RESPONSE TOPERCEIVED CLIMATIC CHANGE (77-

97)

Livestock farms (n=27) Diversified farms (n=28)

NO. REPORTING LIVESTOCK DIVERSIFIED Climate has changed

23 21

ADAPTATION More productive Spread/min risk

15 5 8

8 4 4

NO ADAPTATION 8 13 Not sensitive Too costly

7 0

4 3

RMOC CASE STUDY:CONCLUIDNG COMMENTS

• Climate vs other stimuli

• Differential response options

• Differential vulnerability

NEXT STEPS2002 - 2005

SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF EASTERN ONTARIO, WEST QUEBEC & UPSATE NEW YORK

Concluding Comments

• Vulnerability as a social science – policy linkage

• Vulnerability concepts vs applications• Science to reduce vulnerability to multiple

stressors• Improving science & policy relationships

Public Sector PartnersSSHRC, CIDA, IDRC, University of Victoria, Carleton University, US AID, WWC, University of Michigan, Norwegian Research Council, Norwegian Foreign Ministry, IHDP, ICSU, UNESCO, NATO, APN, EU ENRICH

Private Sector PartnersProcter & Gamble

GECHS Partnerships

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