the future of urban energy systems: a global energy...
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GEA KM18 Urbanization
The Future of Urban Energy Systems:A Global Energy Assessment
Imperial College Laing O'Rourke Centre Distinguished Lecture
February 11, 2013
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Global Energy AssessmentMulti-stakeholder “IPCC of energy” 2008-2012
Focus on energy challenges, options, transitionsAssess linkages: access/poverty, development, security, health, climate
Policy guidance (normative scenarios)First ever energy assessment of urbanization: KM18
GEA KM18 Urbanization
3
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities(high density enables demand/supply management but calls forlow waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy-transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change,- but requires overcoming policy fragmentationand dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main Messages
GEA KM18 Urbanization
How Urban is the World AD2000?
Indicator Data Range References forSource uncertainty range
Area (1000 km2) 2929 1 313-3524 Schneider et al., 2009% of total 2.2 0.2-2.7 range of GlobCover-GRUMP data
Population (million) 2855 2 2650-3150 Uchida&Nelson, 2008% of total 47 44-52 size threshold: 50,000-100,000
GDP (MER 2005$) (billion) 32008 1% of total 81 ?? not available
Final energy use (EJ) 239 1 176-246 this assessment% of total 76 56-78 (see Section 18.4.1)
Light luminosity (million NLIS) 33 3,1% of total 57 50-82 KM18 estimate
Internet routers (number in 1000) 592 4,1% of total 96 73-97 KM18 estimate
Notes: MER: Market Exchange Rates, NLIS: Light Luminosity Intensity Sum (index)
GEA KM18 UrbanizationUrban and Rural Population Projections (Millions)
GEA-H, GEA-M, GEA-L and UN WUP, 2010
0
3000
6000
9000
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110
World GEA‐H urb World GEA‐H rur World GEA‐M urb World GEA_M rur
World GEA‐L urb World GEA_L rur World UN urb World UN rur
World HIST urb World HIST rur
GEA KM18 Urbanization
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ions 10,000,000 and more
5,000000 to 10,000,000
1,000,000 to 5,000,000
100,000 to 1,000,000
Less than 100,000
Rural
Population by Settlement Type/Size
1330
3403192
??
Number ofagglomerationsin 2005
growthdominatedby small &medium sizedcities!
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Path Dependent Urban Energy – Incomes
‐
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
GRP 1990 US$ PPP per capita
TFC GJ/capita
Beijing 1985 ‐2005
Shanghai 1985‐2005
London 1950‐2007
Singapore 1971‐2005
Hongkong 1971‐2005
Tokyo 1970‐2005
GEA KM18 Urbanization
8
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities(high density enables demand/supply management but calls forlow waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy-transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change,- but requires overcoming policy fragmentationand dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main Messages
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average)
n=132
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average)
n=68
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Direct and Embodied Urban Energy Use in Asian Cities
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Tokyo (90) Tokyo (95) Beijing (92) Beijing (97) Shanghai(92)
Shanghai(97)
Energy Use (EJ)
Embodied
Direct
GEA KM18 Urbanization
12
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities(high density enables demand/supply management but calls forlow waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy-transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change,- but requires overcoming policy fragmentationand dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main Messages
GEA KM18 Urbanization
China - Air Pollution (SO2) Exposure
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Europe – Energy Demand Densitiesblue = renewable supply density threshold <0.5-1 W/m2
WEU >79% EEU >66% of energy demand
GEA KM18 UrbanizationUrban Energy and Exergy Efficiency
Industry
Services
Final Exergy: 136 PJ 83%
Useful Exergy: 28 PJ 17%
. Electricity Motor fuels
Heat, Liquids
Households Traffic
L.T. heat Processheat
Light, motion
Secondary Exergy: 163 PJ 100%Secondary Energy: 43 TWh 100%
Final Energy: 37 TWh 85%
Useful Energy: 21 TWh 50%
district heat
Losses
solids
Renew
ables
Gas
Vienna 2007
Useful exergy as % of secondary primaryGeneva (CH) 23.2 15.5Vienna (A) 17.2Malmo (S) 21.2 12.7London (UK) 11.3 6.2
trad. Mexican village 5.7
GEA KM18 Urbanization
16
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities(high density enables demand/supply management but calls forlow waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy-transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change,- but requires overcoming policy fragmentationand dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main Messages
GEA KM18 Urbanization
Stylized Hierarchy in Urban Energy/GHG Drivers and Policy Leverages
1. Spatial division of labor(trade, industry structure, bunkers)
2. Income (consumption)3. Efficiency of energy end-use
(buildings, processes,vehicles, appliances)
4. Urban form(density↔public transport↔carownership↔functional mix)
5. Fuel substitution (imports)6. Energy systems integration
(co-generation, heat-cascading)7. Urban renewables
Decreasing orderof importance
Increasing level ofurban policy leverage
GEA KM18 Urbanization
SynCity Simulations of Urban Policy Leverages
18
GEA KM18 Urbanization
19
1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020
(all long-term energy growth will be urban)
3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting
(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies
5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities(high density enables demand/supply management but calls forlow waste/~zero-impact systems)
6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy-transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)
7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change,- but requires overcoming policy fragmentationand dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking
Main Messages
GEA KM18 Urbanization
GEA KM18 Authors & ResourcesLead Authors:Xuemei Bai, Thomas Buettner, Shobhakar Dhakal, David J. Fisk, Arnulf Grubler(CLA), Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead,Gerd Sammer, David Satterthwaite, Niels B. Schulz,Nilay Shah, Julia Steinberger, Helga Weisz
Contributing Authors:Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*, Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, Mikiko Kainuma*,Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers, Hitomi Nakanishi, Victoria Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, Seongwon Seo*,Ram Manohar Shrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik(*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base)
Resources:Online: www.globalenergyassessment.orgChapter 18 (main text)Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base
A. Grubler and D. Fisk (eds), Energizing Sustainable Cities:Assessing Urban Energy, Earthscan (2012)