GEA KM18 Urbanization

The Future of Urban Energy Systems:A Global Energy Assessment

Imperial College Laing O'Rourke Centre Distinguished Lecture

February 11, 2013

arnulf.grubler@yale.edu

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Global Energy AssessmentMulti-stakeholder “IPCC of energy” 2008-2012

Focus on energy challenges, options, transitionsAssess linkages: access/poverty, development, security, health, climate

Policy guidance (normative scenarios)First ever energy assessment of urbanization: KM18

GEA KM18 Urbanization

3

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

How Urban is the World AD2000?

Indicator Data Range References forSource uncertainty range

Area (1000 km2) 2929 1 313-3524 Schneider et al., 2009% of total 2.2 0.2-2.7 range of GlobCover-GRUMP data

Population (million) 2855 2 2650-3150 Uchida&Nelson, 2008% of total 47 44-52 size threshold: 50,000-100,000

GDP (MER 2005$) (billion) 32008 1% of total 81 ?? not available

Final energy use (EJ) 239 1 176-246 this assessment% of total 76 56-78 (see Section 18.4.1)

Light luminosity (million NLIS) 33 3,1% of total 57 50-82 KM18 estimate

Internet routers (number in 1000) 592 4,1% of total 96 73-97 KM18 estimate

Notes: MER: Market Exchange Rates, NLIS: Light Luminosity Intensity Sum (index)

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Urban and Rural Population Projections (Millions) GEA-H, GEA-M, GEA-L and UN WUP, 2010

0

3000

6000

9000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110

World GEA-H urb World GEA-H rur World GEA-M urb World GEA_M rur

World GEA-L urb World GEA_L rur World UN urb World UN rur

World HIST urb World HIST rur

GEA KM18 Urbanization

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mil

lio

ns 10,000,000 and more

5,000000 to 10,000,000

1,000,000 to 5,000,000

100,000 to 1,000,000

Less than 100,000

Rural

Population by Settlement Type/Size

1330

3403192

??

Mill

ion

s

10,000,000 and more

5,000000 to 10,000,000

1,000,000 to 5,000,000

100,000 to 1,000,000

Less than 100,000

Rural

Number ofagglomerationsin 2005

growthdominatedby small &medium sizedcities!

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Path Dependent Urban Energy – Incomes

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

GRP 1990 US$ PPP per capita

TFC

GJ/

capi

ta

Beijing 1985 -2005

Shanghai 1985-2005

London 1950-2007

Singapore 1971-2005

Hongkong 1971-2005

Tokyo 1970-2005

GEA KM18 Urbanization

8

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average)

n=132

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average)

n=68

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Direct and Embodied Urban Energy Use in Asian Cities

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Tokyo (90) Tokyo (95) Beijing (92) Beijing (97) Shanghai(92)

Shanghai(97)

Ener

gy U

se (E

J)

Embodied

Direct

GEA KM18 Urbanization

12

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

China - Air Pollution (SO2) ExposureEast China (2000)Tg SO2 xmillion people

BeijingShanghai

Hong Kong 3.43.3 1.9

2.11.4

1.8

1.7

0.6

0.3

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Europe – Energy Demand Densitiesblue = renewable supply density threshold <0.5-1 W/m2

WEU >79% EEU >66% of energy demand

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Urban Energy and Exergy EfficiencyEnergy and Exergy Flows Vienna 2007

Source: Wien Energie, 2009; (rough) exergy efficiencies based on Gilli et al., 1996.

Industry

Services

Final Exergy: 136 PJ 83%

Useful Exergy: 28 PJ 17%

. Electricity Motor fuels

Heat, Liquids

Households Traffic

L.T. heat Processheat

Light, motion

Secondary Exergy: 163 PJ 100%Secondary Energy: 43 TWh 100%

Final Energy: 37 TWh 85%

Useful Energy: 21 TWh 50%

district heat

Losses

solids

Gas

Vienna 2007

Useful exergy as % of secondary primaryGeneva (CH) 23.2 15.5Vienna (A) 17.2Malmo (S) 21.2 12.7London (UK) 11.3 6.2

trad. Mexican village 5.7

GEA KM18 Urbanization

16

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Stylized Hierarchy in Urban Energy/GHG Drivers and Policy Leverages

1. Spatial division of labor(trade, industry structure, bunkers)

2. Income (consumption)3. Efficiency of energy end-use

(buildings, processes,vehicles, appliances)

4. Urban form(density↔public transport↔carownership↔functional mix)

5. Fuel substitution (imports)6. Energy systems integration

(co-generation, heat-cascading)7. Urban renewables

Decreasing orderof importance

Increasing level ofurban policy leverage

GEA KM18 Urbanization

SynCity Simulations of Urban Policy Leverages

18

814 Energy Systems Analysis Arnulf Grubler

Medium tohigh density

GEA KM18 Urbanization

19

1. The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) 2. Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020

(all long-term energy growth will be urban)

3. City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints4. Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting

(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies

5. Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems)

6. Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management of urban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..)

7. Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

Main Messages

GEA KM18 Urbanization

GEA KM18 Authors & ResourcesLead Authors:Xuemei Bai, Thomas Buettner, Shobhakar Dhakal, David J. Fisk, Arnulf Grubler (CLA), Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead,Gerd Sammer, David Satterthwaite, Niels B. Schulz,Nilay Shah, Julia Steinberger, Helga Weisz

Contributing Authors:Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*, Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, Mikiko Kainuma*,Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers, Hitomi Nakanishi, Victoria Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, Seongwon Seo*,Ram Manohar Shrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik(*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base)

Resources:Online: www.globalenergyassessment.orgChapter 18 (main text)Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base

A. Grubler and D. Fisk (eds), Energizing Sustainable Cities:Assessing Urban Energy, Earthscan (2012)

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Supplementary Material

21

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Urban Energy Poverty, Access, & Policy Costs

22

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Urban Energy & GHG Accounting Conundrums

• Tradeoffs between comprehensiveness, policy relevance,& data availability; Key: systems boundaries

• Production accounting-- clear methodology (IPCC/OECD)-- data availability (>200 cities)-- policy/benchmark relevant (industry, buildings, transport)

• Consumption accounting-- comprehensiveness (with full accounting)-- intricate methodological issues (no agreed standard, local prices vs national, vs multi-regional I-O)-- data nightmare (estimates for only few megacities)

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Urban Air Pollutants Concentrations

24

GEA KM18 Urbanization

Urban Density and Car MobilityFigure Trans_4_colour1

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300

Urban density [persons/ha]

Mod

al s

pli

t of

pri

vate

m

otor

ized

mod

e

USA

Australia

Western EuropeAsia high income

Asia low income

Chicago

Dubai

Glasgow

Stuttgart Brussels

ZurichMunich

KrakowSao Paulo

Singapore

Moscow

Hong Kong

Average over cities of the cited areareference year 1991Individual cities, reference year 2001

Average over cities of the cited areareference year 1991Individual cities, reference year 2001

Cities in Asia and South AmericaCities in USA and Australia Cities in Europe

Cities in Asia and South AmericaCities in USA and Australia Cities in Europe

Average over cities of the cited areareference year 1991Individual cities, reference year 2001Cities in Asia and South AmericaCities in USA and Australia Cities in Europe

Weak correlation above density threshold

Low density “penalty”