the future of the diamond industry - bruce cleaver, de beers group
TRANSCRIPT
D I A M O N D S I N C O N T E X T
The De Beers Group of Companies
Source: The De Beers Group of Companies; World Gold Council 2014; Johnson Matthey
D I A M O N D S O U R C E S F O R D I A M O N D S V S . G O L D A N D P L AT I N U M – 2 0 1 3(Per cent)
99
44
8
48
33
21
9
37
Jewellery
Industrial
Investment
Autocatalyst
Diamonds Gold Platinum
2
“In CONTRAST with precious metals
and other natural resources industries,
which rely on MULTIPLE sources of demand,
the diamond industry derives practically
all its VALUE from CONSUMERS’ demand for diamond jewellery”
(Per cent of brides receiving a diamond)
1939 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2013
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
USA
Japan
China (Tier 1)
D E B E E R S : B U I L D I N G T H E D I A M O N D E N G A G E M E N T T R A D I T I O N
The De Beers Group of Companies 3
C O M PA N Y O V E R V I E W
The De Beers Group of Companies
GlobalExploration1
Canada(100%)
South Africa(74%)
DebswanaDiamond Company
(50%)
NamdebHoldings
(50%)
NamdebDiamond
Corporation(land)
DebmarineNamibia
(sea)
Element SixTechnologies2
(100%);Abrasives (c.60%)
GlobalSightholder
Sales(100%)
Sightholder SalesSouth Africa
(74%)
DTC Botswana(50%)
Namibia DTC(50%)
Auction Sales(100%)
Forevermark(100%)
De BeersJewellers(50%)
M I N I N G S U P E R M AT E R I A L S
P R O D U C T I O NO P E R AT I O N SE X P L O R AT I O N R O U G H D I A M O N D S A L E S B R A N D S / R E TA I L
A N G L O A M E R I C A N 8 5 %
D E B E E R S
G O V E R N M E N T O F T H E R E P U B L I C O F B O T S WA N A 1 5 %
1. Exploration is undertaken through a number of controlled subsidiaries of De Beers
2. Element Six is made up of two businesses: Technologies, which is 100%
by De Beers, and Abrasives, which is c.60% owned by De Beers
Wholly-owned or controlledsubsidiaries and divisions
Joint ventures
4
D E B E E R S ’ S T R AT E G Y A C R O S S T H E P I P E L I N E
The De Beers Group of Companies
U P S T R E A MOptimise core business
E X P L O R AT I O N A N D P R O J E C T S : • In-house exploration
• Accelerated exploration project decision making
M I N I N G : • Flexible operations
to maximise value
through the demand cycle
• Asset optimisation across
operations
D I S T R I B U T I O N : • Build the smartest
distribution system
to maximise the value
of each rough carat
D O W N S T R E A M : • Support consumer preference for diamonds in main
consumer markets through branded propositions
• Consumer and trade intelligence
• Better understanding of polished diamonds
M I D S T R E A MUnique value proposition
D O W N S T R E A MDemand generation and future growth platform
ConsumersJewellery
manufacturingJewellery
retail
Polished manufacturing
and trading
Rough distributionand tradingMining
Explorationand projects
T E C H N O L O G Y & I N N O VAT I O N : TA L E N T & L E A D E R S H I P
5
P R O J E C T E D G L O B A L R O U G H D I A M O N D P R O D U C T I O N – M c K I N S E Y F O R E C A S T S
The De Beers Group of Companies
Source: McKinsey & Company, ‘Perspectives on the Diamond Industry’, September 2014
(Million carats)
New projects
Expansions
Existing production
6
The De Beers Group of Companies
M I D S T R E A M P R E S S U R E S
M I D S T R E A M
Upward pressure on
rough price due to higher
production costs
Downward pressure on
polished price as retailers
look to maintain price points
Changing industry stock-
holding patterns pushes
burden of inventory to
cutting centres
Financing challenges as
banks require greater
transparency and
financial strength
7
E V E N S T R O N G E R C O M P E T I T I O N F R O M O T H E R L U X U R Y C AT E G O R I E S
The De Beers Group of Companies
Source: Euromonitor
G R O W T H O F L U X U R Y C AT E G O R I E S I N T H E U N I T E D S TAT E S(Per cent)
8
B R A N D S W I L L B E C O M E I N C R E A S I N G LY I M P O R TA N T
The De Beers Group of Companies
Source: De Beers
U S C O N S U M E R S W H O R E P O R T E D B U Y I N G A B R A N D E D D I A M O N D E N G A G E M E N T R I N G(Per cent)
9
T H E I M P O R TA N C E O F T H E O N L I N E C H A N N E L A N D S H A R E O F A D V E R T I S I N G V O I C E
“Analysts’ forecasts are for annual US online jewellery sales growth
to be twice as high as brick and mortar growth to 2020”
*Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
21
10
30
39
17
11
36
36
23
11
29
38
19
11
33
3
148
32
45
139
36
42
148
37
41
16
11
36
37
149
33
45
Jewellery
Timepieces
Fashion
Electronics
S H A R E O F A D V E R T I S I N G V O I C E F O R J E W E L L E R Y A P P E A R S T O B E S T R E N G T H E N I N G S L I G H T LY, A S E L E C T R O N I C S G I V E WAY(Per cent*)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The De Beers Group of Companies 10
T H E U S A N D C H I N A W I L L R E M A I N T H E K E Y M A R K E T S F O R D I A M O N D C O N S U M P T I O N F O R T H E F O R E S E E A B L E F U T U R E
The De Beers Group of Companies
1. Greater China includes China, Hong Kong and Macau
Source: De Beers Group Strategy analysis
USA 42%
China 16%
India 8%
Japan 5%
Gulf 8%
EU 28%
ROW 13%
USA 40%
Greater China1 19%
India 9%
Japan 4%
Gulf 7%
ROW 20%
2 0 1 8 F2 0 1 4
Main trends:• Global consumer demand is forecast to grow at an annual average of 4-5% in US$ nominal terms (through to 2018)
• The US is expected to remain the largest market for polished diamonds with roughly the same share by 2018 as in 2014
• Continued Asian and especially Chinese middle class growth should support demand growth for diamonds with Greater China1 expected to account for approximately 19% of world total demand by 2018
• India is set to remain an important market but its trajectory is currently more uncertain
11
P R O J E C T E D G R O W T H O F M I D D L E C L A S S E S I N E M E R G I N G M A R K E T S S H O U L D S E E C O N T I N U E D G L O B A L D E M A N D G R O W T H F O R D I A M O N D S
The De Beers Group of Companies
Source: Oxford Economics
Brazil 27%
Russia 49%
Turkey 33%
South Africa 69%
Mexico 27%
Indonesia 164%
India 72%
China 129%
2 0 1 4
• Total number of US households with annual income >US$35,000 approximately 100mn in 2013 (75% of US households)
• Middle class households in emerging markets defined as those with annual income >US$20,000, except in India where it is >US$10,000
P R O J E C T E D G R O W T H O F M I D D L E C L A S S E S I N E M E R G I N G M A R K E T S(Per cent change 2013A-2018F)
N U M B E R O F P R O J E C T E D A D D I T I O N A L M I D D L E C L A S S H O U S E H O L D S I N 2 0 1 8 F V S . 2 0 1 3 A (Millions)
13
6
10
4
2
5
11
27
99
USA
Bra
zil
Ru
ssia
Tu
rkey
So
uth
Afr
ica
Mexic
o
Ind
on
esi
a
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
12
S U P P LY / D E M A N D C U R V E B A S E D O N M c K I N S E Y F O R E C A S T S
The De Beers Group of Companies
Source: McKinsey Global Insitute; McKinsey & Company, ‘Perspectives on the Diamond Industry’, September 2014
(Index base 100 in 2014)
2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Demand forecast
Production forecast
13
S A F E G U A R D I N G C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E
The De Beers Group of Companies
The AMS is a compact, automated version of DiamondSure that enables 360 small stonesper hour to be tested completely automatically
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• Various companies have the ability to manufacture gem-quality synthetic diamonds utilising different technologies (HPHT and CVD, principally)
• Trading in undisclosed or misrepresented gem synthetics risks damage to consumer con�dence, so accurate descriptions and clear disclosure are fundamentally important
• De Beers has invested around US$65m (in today’s values) to develop sophisticated detection technology including DiamondSure™ and DiamondView™ that can readily identify all types of gem synthetics
• Latest generation of technology from De Beers includes the Automated Melée Screening device (AMS), to scan colourless and near-colourless melée (small diamonds) quickly and cost-effectively
• With De Beers’ leadership, the industry has so far been successful in safeguarding consumer con�dence. Continual investment in developing and deploying technology will be required to sustain that success in the future