the future of mobile [deck]

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THE FUTURE OF MOBILE [SLIDE DECK]Alex Cocotas and Henry Blodget | Mar. 22, 2012, 3:44 PM | 2,789,430 | 44

Yesterday, we hosted our IGNITION

WEST: Future of Mobile conference

in San Francisco.

To kick off the conference, our BI

Intelligence teamPascal-

Emmanuel Gobry, Alex Cocotas, andIput together a deck on the currenttrends in mobile. We looked closelyat the growth of smartphones andtablets, the platform wars, and howconsumers are actually using their devices.

You can flip through the deck below(click on the link).

(BI Intelligence , by the way, is a new

industry research service for executives and investors. W e recently launched, and we hope you'll all become members.Please sign up for a free one month trial here .)

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uture Of Mobile [DECK] http://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-mobile-deck-2012-3?op=1

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The Board RoomFeatured Comments

mshoebri (URL) on Mar 22, 9:24 PM said:

Henry

Interesting to see a global perspective but this is only part of the story. The emerging market is massive and as indicated a huge install base of featurephones. New phone sales are only part of the picture the current install base needs to be taken into account.

The challenges around smartphones in emerging markets are not just price points., Power consumption, robustness and network infrastructure all play animportant factors. Yes they are all being addressed but slowly. The operator network capacity and power consumption are significant issues in manyplaces in the emerging markets. Many are the operators have only 2G to invest in 3G or even 4G requires significant capital resources.

Ovum say Feature phones has 63% of mobile market share by 2016.Gartner say in recent report - India accounts for 12% of device sales globally with Smartphone sales making up only 6% in the first 3 quarters of 2011.This is expected to increase to 8% by the end of 2012.GSMA

Africa has overtaken Latin America to become the second largest mobile market after Asia.By 2015, the total number of connections is estimated to reach 84% of the total African population.CISCO - GSM mobile data traffic is set to grow at 26fold between 2010 and 2015 with the mobile-only Internet will grow to 788 million by end of 2015.

Contrary to popular developed nations thinking feature phones will be around for some time to come. We just have to widen our scope of thinking toappreciate this. iPhones and high end Androids are desired but out of the reach for many. Yes the cost of Android phones will come down but thosefeature phones will not go away they will be re-cycled, re-used and refurbished in the emerging markets.

The Water Cooler 44 Comments

Flag as Offensive

Valentin on Mar 22, 4:53 PM said:

Android will be the OS of the future because it is implemented by more and more hardware makers!

Flag as Offensive

Henry Blodget on Mar 22, 5:00 PM said:

@ Valentin : Yes, it still has the lead in marketshare. But Apple has done an impressive job of hanging in there. And, thus far,developers have not rallied around Android in the same way as iOS.

Flag as Offensive

cwdunlap (URL) on Mar 22, 6:44 PM said:

@ Henry Blodget : Android has no network effect due top the diversity of its platforms.How much can HTML5 fix that?

Flag as Offensive

RJWTimes on Mar 22, 6:15 PM said:

I hope Microsoft still hangs in there.


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Flag as Offensive

Old Timer on Mar 22, 7:04 PM said:

@ Henry Blodget : A very interesting presentation! Mary Meeker may have some competition one day. Please correct me if I overstate, but Ibelieve that perhaps in your analysis you have missed the third leg of the iOS story - Apple's underappreciated but very valuable secretweapon - the iPod Touch. Here's what Asymco's Horace Dediu said about it (albeit in Sept, 2010): "the iPod touch is a large (1.6) multiplier to the whole iOSplatform. The demographics are very sweet too with a clear upsell opportunity....(and)...in the iPod touch we have a mini iPadironically, the dig at the iPad wasthat it was nothing more than a large iPod touch." Surely the multiplier of the iOS platform has decreased since then, but I believe it is still large and material.Surely if the large number of cheap, 'buy 2 for the price of 1' Android "smartphones" which are little used as such, or the loss-leading Amazon Kindle (that is

Android only at buried technical levels and can't easily access Google's App Marketplace and services) are included in your mobile platform statistics, then the iPodTouch which is fully up-to-date iOS and Apple Appstore Ready should be included. The iPod Touch has even less competition than the iPad and has been nearlyforgotten by other analysts as well. It is a key and strategic part of Apple's secret sauce. When those many millions of iPod Touch using kids grow up, whatphones and/or tablets will they buy? Thanks again for you efforts to understand Mobile. I hope that this helps.

Flag as Offensive

jasno on Mar 22, 7:44 PM said:

We are in the beginning of a great revolution. Like in the 1950's when the interstate highway system was about to be kicked off. I'm talkingabout the mobile technology of LTE. (real 4G) It does away with the old circuit switched phone network.. There is still lots of work to be done,but when the smoke clears, it will be voice and data all on the same pipes, the same gear (more or less). Couple that with IPv6 and we will really have a flexiblesystem. There is no telling where this will take us.I must disclose that I work for AT&T; however, the opinions expressed here are my own.

Flag as Offensive

Michelle Sanford on Mar 23, 9:42 AM said:

@ jasno : Actually with the mass cloning going on in Asia (i.e. the article about apple being returned on front page?), smartphoneand tablet devices are vastly more economical than ever before therefore lending much more credibility to these statistics. Themobile platforms such as droid, iPhones, and rim etc. are a feasible option in a global market where traditional pc's aren't a necessity and are a pain in thebehind to lug around. Couple this with the advancement in cloud computing and you've got, like you so elequently stated "great revolution". If I can root my droidand install an Ubuntu server on it, can you imagine where technology will be in the not so distant future?! That was six months ago. While I can't completely getrid of my pc's, many of my networking colleagues already have. If we can install, configure and run networks via our blackberries (personal preference) or iPads there really is no use for bulky towers anymore. And really the only people who still use pc's are techies that need the additional simultaneous operatingsystems.

Flag as Offensive

original insider on Mar 22, 8:41 PM said:

conference attendees paid good money for this wafer-thin analysis? my sympathies for their losses

Flag as Offensive

Henry Blodget on Mar 22, 9:49 PM said:

@ original insider : No! They got this free. They paid for other folks' analysis.

Flag as Offensive

original insider on Mar 25, 3:52 PM said:

@ Henry Blodget : ah. i feel much better.

Flag as Offensive

Tadas iemys on Mar 22, 9:08 PM said:

Great slide show! Thanks

Flag as Offensive

mshoebri (URL) on Mar 22, 9:24 PM said:

Henry

Interesting to see a global perspective but this is only part of the story. The emerging market is massive and as indicated a huge install base of feature phones.New phone sales are only part of the picture the current install base needs to be taken into account.

The challenges around smartphones in emerging markets are not just price points., Power consumption, robustness and network infrastructure all play an importantfactors. Yes they are all being addressed but slowly. The operator network capacity and power consumption are significant issues in many places in the emerging


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Comment flagged as offensive.

markets. Many are the operators have only 2G to invest in 3G or even 4G requires significant capital resources.

Ovum say Feature phones has 63% of mobile market share by 2016.Gartner say in recent report - India accounts for 12% of device sales globally with Smartphone sales making up only 6% in the first 3 quarters of 2011. This isexpected to increase to 8% by the end of 2012.GSMA

Africa has overtaken Latin America to become the second largest mobile market after Asia.By 2015, the total number of connections is estimated to reach 84% of the total African population.CISCO - GSM mobile data traffic is set to grow at 26 foldbetween 2010 and 2015 with the mobile-only Internet will grow to 788 million by end of 2015.

Contrary to popular developed nations thinking feature phones will be around for some time to come. We just have to widen our scope of thinking to appreciatethis. iPhones and high end Androids are desired but out of the reach for many. Yes the cost of Android phones will come down but those feature phones will not goaway they will be re-cycled, re-used and refurbished in the emerging markets.

Showing first 5 of 12 replies. View All

Flag as Offensive

Abhishek on Mar 23, 12:43 AM said:

@ mshoebri : Ultimate....!

Flag as Offensive

Pablo Gimenez on Mar 23, 2:17 PM said:

@ mshoebri : http://phxsms.com/features.html

Flag as Offensive

Edward on Mar 23, 2:43 PM said:

@ mshoebri : But first, the cost of monthly calling plans must be reduced before this will take off in a big way.

Flag as Offensive

Gene Saxe (URL) on Mar 23, 5:12 PM said:

@ mshoebri : Mobile devices can replace most desktop use, with a broader range of services, and transactions, because of geography,focused promotions, and using it as an educational resource "on the spot". However, this opportunity will not happen, until there is anefficient and fast dynamic content delivery, that will approach TV like experience, to satisfy the "always on" nature of youth, and busy people generally. Withoutsolving that problem, wide adoption of mobile as the choice to connect will stall out, and the hope of getting from education to transaction to fulfillment will bedelayed, yet again.

Flag as Offensive

GLComputing on Mar 24, 10:39 AM said:

@ mshoebri : The fragmentation of Android goes beyond the versions... the platform gets additional complexities with the varietyof screen sizes/resolutions; then the OS is customised by the hardware manufacturers and again by the telcos.

On the other hand, iOS development has it's own challenges with the inability to run simple betas, the inability to integrate with other apps (esp the native ones)and the inability to simulate apps in a demo or webinar without a Mac

Blackberry still has two advantages... far better security and email (still amazed that RIM could release PlayBook without native QNX email) ... Not sure thatthis will be enough as it's obvious that platform decisions are based on games and personal apps rather that business usage

Local app integration issues will be a problem for more powerful apps with HTML5 - especially on iOS.

Flag as Offensive

ibrahim ali (URL) on Mar 23, 1:17 AM said:

hai everybody iam new to linkedin

pvzed on Mar 23, 8:22 AM said:


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Flag as OffensiveGood presentation. Is this available for download?

Flag as Offensive

Darrel on Mar 23, 9:09 AM said:

That's true. However, developers will have to go where the consumers are, otherwise they won't make any money.

Flag as Offensive

rybchin on Mar 23, 10:11 AM said:

Fantastic presentation Henry. Even better than Mary Meeker's most recent installment. :) #in

Flag as Offensive

Karthik S. Ramaswamy on Mar 23, 12:04 PM said:

This is by far one of the best posts I've seen in a long time. Thanks so much for designing this presentation. This comes in handy todevelop our applications! :)

Flag as Offensive

turfgrrl on Mar 23, 2:08 PM said:

Just like during the personal computer early days, people will aggregate where the apps are. I think HTML5 changes the need for appdevelopment a bit and can change the game for Android. But, never underestimate the ease of use factor. IOS rules.

Flag as Offensive

Arjun on Mar 23, 2:20 PM said:

Slide 8 - Global phone users @ 6.45billion.World population ~ 7billion.92% market penetration? is that true?

Flag as Offensive

Alexander Cocotas on Mar 23, 2:25 PM said:

@ Arjun : Hi Arjun, the International Telecommunications Union estimates that 87 percent of the world are mobile subscribers.There is a decent minority of people with two phones and that probably accounts for the gap. Hope this helps.

Flag as Offensive

Prof Hindu on Mar 24, 1:38 AM said:

@ Alexander Cocotas : @Alex, yes ITU says 87% mobile penetration, but does it make sense? Approx 1/4 of the world's population isunder 15; the proportion is much higher in many developing countries. Optimistically, the maximum addressable market globally for mobilephone subscription is 6 billion (excluding 30% of the developed world under 15s and 70% for their developing world counterparts). Even two phonesubscriptions are unlikely to justify the 6.45 billion estimate. The real test will be how the aggregate estimates are adjusted in the next 5 years. Anyway, bigpicture is still the same - massive growth.

Flag as Offensive

Alex Kerr on Mar 26, 9:27 AM said:

@ Arjun : The stats shown here are wrong. The world's leading mobile stats expert Tomi Ahonen (recently rated by Forbes as the mostinfluential mobile expert in the world) gives the following stats and I have no reason not to believe his over other stats out there:

Total mobile phone installed base is 4.8 billion, which is just under 69% of world population. Population is split between 1.2 billion in the rich industrialised worldand 5.8 billion in the developing and emerging world. Smartphone split is at 35% of all phone in the industrialised world (covering 44% of the population, asphones outnumber population) and just 12% of phones in the developing/emerging world (covering only 7% of the population) - incidentally those latter figureshave grown by only 1% in the last year, from 11% (6% of pop) - NOT explosive smartphone growth!


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Flag as OffensiveFoneboy Cashaphone on Mar 27, 12:35 AM said:

@ Alexander Cocotas : come to southern china (hong kong and shenzhen) and you will see a very large % of the population with2-3 phones

Flag as Offensive

Brian Hemsworth (URL) on Mar 23, 4:06 PM said:

There is a disconnect with this growth and how mainstream business is viewing mobile right now. People get that there are a lot of mobilephones out there, but the usage of web-enable devices is missed by many. I teach at a near by university, and for my students, even a laptopis too big. They want EVERYTHING to come through their smart phone, of if necessary, their tablet. I've been working with a start up called crowdseye.com andwe found that the rising tide is the need for apps and tablet-friendly websites. In time we may see the default as the mobi site, and the full site becomes thealternate.

Flag as Offensive

QATestingTools on Mar 24, 6:47 PM said:

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Advertise to software people at http://www.qatestingtools.com/advertising

Flag as Offensive

QATestingTools on Mar 24, 6:57 PM said:

Future of Mobile....always takes me to the future of Testing tools for mobileso, if you are looking for good mobile testing solution, you better start from herehttp://www.qatestingtools.com/mobile-testing-tools-tablemore advertising options inside, see you at http://www.qatestingtools.com

Flag as Offensive

Aleen Sagers (URL) on Mar 26, 12:35 AM said:

LOL "and the internet"Really. I think that's why they stopped us taking so many pics when I went there with a mate, we just looked too full onI guess. Great place though. Journalists can see more of it perhaps and the bits not on the tour look amazing. I mean the main hall is amazingbut those tunnels look very attractive too. Maybe I can get myself on one oneday.Take careDamon

Flag as Offensive

Justus on Mar 26, 2:05 AM said:

Pity this presentation doesn't work on a mobile phone.

Flag as Offensive

Manolo Fuentes on Mar 27, 8:59 AM said:

Nothing new for people on the industry and maybe for people with open eyes on what is happening on the Mobile industry for the last 10years also nothing new. Great for newcomers though. Forgot to mention the RIM blackberry story as how they went to market leaders withonly one App - email- to flop in a decade but they still have a decent market. share, this could happen to any company banking on just a few apps or games. Thearticle is not telling us what is the next big thing on mobile, no mention of wireless wallets, M2M, etc., they forgot also to mention tablets and Smartphones will be awindow to the cloud, the cloud being a bunch of servers running on a datacenter running enterprise applications so yes Microsoft, Oracle, IBM are listening just noton the same channel, what is behind the mobile revolution will also grow it has to, just like the wires, hardware and bandwith of the telecom industry process nowmore bits and bytes with less, and yes there are plenty of places in the world mainly Africa where there are no wireless capacity for these smartphones and thehardware there is not ready to support it.

Flag as Offensive

Josvic Zammit on Mar 27, 10:08 AM said:

Why is HTML5 downplayed against native apps? i.e. iOS & Android?

Flag as Offensive

John Towers M.Math on Mar 27, 1:38 PM said:

BIO: I must admit that the prior comments are all interesting. Before adding my feedback, my background will indicate that I have thecredentials to back it up... Over 40 years of IT experience. Former Director Data Strategies & Architecture/Chief Architect at Roges AT&T


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Wireless/CANTEL(1991-2001), former strategy consultant at IBM (2004-2010), managing the Canadian Communications sector 2008 CEO study. I now work for an India based consulting firm, where I am engaged on Mobility strategies for large corporations.COMMENTS: If one wants to know where the mobile technology is going, from a usage pattern, look at Japan. The youth there are typically 2-3 years ahead of the rest of the world. Highest wireless penetration usage has traditionally been Japan and Europe, with North America following. The new world frontiers of AsiaPacific and Africa do not have the older telecom infrastructure to pay off, that North America has. As such, they are starting with wireless fooprints day one. Aswell, as have significantly higher populations (potential subscribers). I saw a BBC news item, indicating a Samsung SVP's focus on India. Could it have anything todo with the volumes?

As one of the early laptop users (1990.. Thinkpad 700) versus early cell phone users (1985... was half the size of a brick), I would note the following comparison.(1) "Size matters"... my favorite laptop was the size of a book ... an IBM butterfly with folding keyboard. But there is a limit. I tried smaller Toshiba laptops, of thetime, and found them too small. As long as there is a keyboard, the phone can be only so small. As fat fingered guys, like myself, still need to type. Which mayeventually change phones to like clothing sizes? Fat finger phones and skinny/younger usage phones. I wear glasses so larger fonts on larger screens might benice.(2) Screen size is a concern. Though current users of smart phones will disagree (my girlfriend being one). She carried two cell phones one for data/text and one

for voice. As such an example at the higher penetration stats. Though HTML formats are wonderful, there is still a real-estate issue with the smaller phone screensizes. In the 1990's the cell phone application developers dealt with a standard called WAP = Wireless Application Protocol. Which basically dealt with the problemof shoehorning a large amount of data into a small screen. So another customizaton may be usage type based.(3) Let's not forget the hardware volumes affect on attracting developers to the mobile platform. I learned my lesson the hard way... I was one of the earlyadopters of Steve Job's NextStep effort. It was bulit on a non-WINTEL platform. Though at least 10 years ahead of Windows it died. Why? Insufficient developersand a coporate user focus versus retail consumer focus. Another corporate versus consumer example is IBM's OS/2. I was far superior to Windows but waslimited to the smaller corporate user versus large retail consumer base. Where are OS/2 and Windows now? I rest my case. The reason for mentioning thiscoporate versus retail consumer comment is liensing numbers to attract developers. This is a dilemna that RIM is in. As very early adopter of the Blackberry atRogers, I noted the killer app (e-mail) that RIM provided. This provided silent collaboration capabilities that reminded me of video conferncing. Boeing claimed thatthe use of videoconferenicng took a year off the 747 developent time. But while comparing the Apple iPhone with a streamline of new applications, as waspreviously noted RIM focuses on one application (e-mail). My predicion... unless RIM comes up with another killer application/device it will forever be at best 2ndplace to Apple. My suggestion to RIM is think outside of the box, e.g. ask IBM about its translation electronics that it is production ready (2006 approx), as per itsVP Nick Dinofrio's internal announcement at IBM's TLE. With a global presence of smart devices a non-text voice translation may be helpful? US demographicsshow that growing spnish versus english growth, while Canada is officlally english and french with a string oriental growth in wstern Canada. I must admit my lackof knowledge on Asia Pacific, but would wonder about Cantonse versus mMandarin in China? As well as any India differentiators?(4) Three other factors in a wireless world have nothing to do with the electronics... customer service, wireless bill and fraud. Wireless companies have spent yearstrying to address churn (customer changing wirless providers) and faud detectin predictors. Today's Wintel based platforms have had it easy dealing with virusprotection with such producs as McAfee. While Cell phone providers have dealt with cloned phones using A-key and FraudBuster type approaches. Imaging thepossibilities of viruses that affect wireless technology? Maybe a LINUX/UNIX based mobile device may be a short -term fix. Until the UNIX world has to deal withviruses. Only time will tell.(5) The other dark horse is the durability of the product. Nokia, the European wireless handset manufacturer makes the most durable handsets.... I lost a cellphone in a snow bank. Found it in the summer, while cutting my lawn. Charged the phone and it worked like a charm. While I experience and hear horror storiesabout LGS handsets (e.g. power management, automatically turning phone off when the battery is fully charged). Nokia is adopting the next Windows mobileplatform. Wait and see.

Sorry if I put you to sleep.


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