the economic outlook for manufacturers - dr. ernie goss, economist, creighton university
DESCRIPTION
While some manufacturers have had record years, and in some respects, helped to jump start the economic recovery, the outlook may be cloudy. Manufacturing is weakening in Minnesota, and across the nation, according to a closely watched Creighton University Index. Presented at the Minnesota Chamber Manufacturers Summit on October 23, 2012TRANSCRIPT
Mid-America and the Global Economy: Short and Long Term Challenges & Opportunities
Ernie Goss Ph.D.
Professor of Economics
MacAllister Chairholder
Creighton UniversityWeb: www.ernestgoss.com
Twitter.com/erniegoss
Web: www.outlook-economic.com
Minnesota Manufacturers Summit
2008-12Never has so much been done to achieve so little?
• Two stimulus bills ($1 trillion)
• Bailouts—GM, Bear Stearns, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Chrysler, 19 Large Banks
• Interest rates: QE1, QE2, QE3,Operation Twist, Funds Rate = 0% - ¼%
• Cash for clunkers, appliances, caulking, windows, Green vehicles,
• Tax credit for first time home buyers
• Mortgage forgiveness & writedowns
Threats
Opportunities
• Opportunities–Record low interest rates (bond
market looking for quality issues)– International opportunities–Great bargains in real estate market –Cash is king–How can you take advantage of
uncertainty?
Housing/Construction
Source: Lodmell & Lodmell http://www.lodmell.com/protect-wealth/strategic-defaults-mortgages
Price changes, 2007-12
Why Build New?
New construction costs = 4 x existing
Case-Shiller home price index 2001- July 2012
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Year over year price change
E
End of federal tax credit
Debt
Federal spending as % of GDP, 1947-2012
Public debt as % of GDPThe 25% problem?
Agriculture
Monthly Survey of Rural Bank CEOs
• 10 states, 210 bank executives
• Released 3rd Thursday of each month
• Average community size = 1,300
• CO, IA, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, NE, SD, WY
Rural Mainstreet Economy Jan. ‘08 – Oct. ‘12
Bullish on Agriculture/food: Long term
• Fast growth for emerging economies (China, India): Food & energy demand income elastic (e.g. income up 8%, food demand up 12%)
• Cheap value of dollar (makes U.S. food & energy more competitive abroad): U.S. trade deficit, budget deficit, higher inflation.
• Biofuels & alternative fuel production: wind farms, ethanol, solar.
ManufacturingThe Regional Economy:
Survey of Purchasing Managers
A Partnership Among Creighton and State Supply Managers Associations
U.S. & Mid-America PMI’s, 2007 – September 2012
Minnesota’ exports, 1999 vs 2011
1999 2011
Indicators to Watch (next month)
• Case-Shiller home index for August• Trade weighted value of dollar• Sovereign bond default (PIIGS)• Yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury
Bond• Retail sales (Nov. 14) • GDP (Oct. 26)• PMIs (Nov. 1)• Employment report (Nov. 2)
Economic Medicine
• Look internationally for sales & investment• Need fundamental tax reform—flatter & fairer• Simpson/Bowles tax/spending plan• Shorten period of UI benefits• Commitment to reducing federal spending• Keep 2001 & 2003 tax cuts for all until
spending cuts• Reduce barriers to trade• Must convert pensions to defined contribution
plans for public employees• Encourage repatriation of U.S. earnings