The Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) program:

Scientific and economic assessment

Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

The CAFE approach2001-2005

• Based on peer-reviewed scientific knowledge• Using best available, quality-controlled real-world data• With close involvement of stakeholders:

Integrated assessment of cost-effective policy measures with the IIASA RAINS model:

1. Project future emissions and air quality resulting from full implementation of current EU legislation

2. Explore scope and costs for further measures

3. Analyze cost-effective policy scenarios

Economic driversassumed for the CAFE baseline scenario, EU-25

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use Passenger kmFreight ton-km Cattle lifestock Sea transport

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use

Land-based emissions CAFE baseline “with climate measures”, EU-25

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC PM2.5

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2SO2 NOx VOCNH3 PM2.5

Scope for further technical emission reductions CAFE baseline “with climate measures”, EU-25

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5

% of 2000 emissions

2000 CAFE baseline 2020, current legislation Maximum technical reductions 2020

Loss in life expectancy attributable to fine particles [months]

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical

Current legislation emission reductions

Vegetation-damaging ozone concentrations

AOT40 [ppm.hours]. Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Calculations for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical

Current legislation emission reductions

Excess acid deposition to forests

Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, Calculation for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical

Current legislation emission reductions

Excess nitrogen deposition threatening biodiversity

Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads Calculation for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical

Current legislation emission reductions

Multi-pollutant/multi-effect analysisfor identifying cost-effective policy scenarios

SO2 NOx VOCNH3PM

Health AcidificationEutrophication Ozone

RAINS computer model

CAFE policy targets for 2020

Optimized emission reductions for EU-25of the CAFE policy scenarios [2000=100%]

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5

% of 2000 emissions

Grey range: CLE to MTFR Case "A" Case "B" Case "C"

Emission control costs of the CAFE policy scenarios

0

10

20

30

40

Case "A" Case "B" Case "C" Max. technical reductions

Billion Euros/year

Road sources SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM

Distribution of costs[€/person/year]

0

20

40

60

80

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep.

Den

mar

k

Est

onia

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Irel

and

Italy

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Luxe

mbo

urg

Mal

ta

Net

herla

nds

Pol

and

Por

tuga

l

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Spa

in

Sw

eden UK

EU

-25

Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) Low ambition Medium ambition

0

20

40

60

80

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Cyp

rus

Cze

ch R

ep.

Den

mar

k

Est

onia

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Hun

gary

Irel

and

Ital

y

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Luxe

mbo

urg

Mal

ta

Net

herla

nds

Pol

and

Por

tuga

l

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Spa

in

Sw

eden UK

EU

-25

Total Costs (Euro/person/yr) Low ambition Medium ambition High ambition

*) excluding costs for road sources

EU-wide instruments and measuresconsidered by the Commission

• National emission ceilings

– for PM2.5, SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC

• Air quality limit values for PM2.5

– Focus on population-weighted urban background concentrations

• Further strengthening of emission limit values for vehicles (Euro-5, Euro-6)

• Product standards for small combustion sources

• Structural funds for substitution of coal combustion in households in accession countries

• Etc.

• Additional local measures subject to subsidiarity principle

Conclusions

• Emissions in the EU-25 will continue to decline in the future with progressing implementation of current legislation (except ammonia)

• However, air quality problems will remain. Different problems will persist in different regions of Europe

• There is scope for further emission reductions

• The Commission will propose cost-effective steps for further air quality improvement in Europe. Member States need to accept their shares in cooperative solutions.