future challenges for integrated assessment modelling markus amann international institute for...
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Future challenges for
integrated assessment modelling
Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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Historic SO2, NOx and NH3 emissions 1880-1985, EU-25
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/dev/tty> International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RAINS 1.1 (1984)
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RRRR AA III NN N SSSS R R A A I N N N S RRRR AAAAAA I N N N SSSS R R A A I N N N S R R AA AA III N NN SSSS
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Please treat all results with caution!
Hit RETURN to continue …
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20 years assessment of forest soil acidification1984 and 2004
1984: RAINS 1.1 assessment for 2010 2004: CAFE assessment for 2010
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads
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Historic SO2, NOx and NH3 emissions 1880-2005, EU-25
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Functions of integrated assessment models (1)
• Integration over cause-effects chain– Multi-disciplinary approach (since RAINS 1.1)
• Balancing of measures – Cost-effectiveness optimization (since 2nd Sulphur Protocol)
• Integration over multiple benefits– Multi-effect approach (since Gothenburg-protocol)
• Integration over scales– Inclusion of health impacts (since CAFE)
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Functions of integrated assessment models
• Integration over cause-effects chain– Multi-disciplinary approach (since RAINS 1.1)
• Balancing of measures – Cost-effectiveness optimization (since 2nd Sulphur Protocol)
• Integration over multiple benefits– Multi-effect approach (since Gothenburg-protocol)
• Integration over scales– Inclusion of health impacts (since CAFE)
• Integration of multiple policy areas– Link to climate policy, agriculture
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Multi-pollutant measures (1)
• Structural measures: – Energy savings, efficiency improvements, bans: all pollutants ↓
– Increased use of natural gas: CO2, SO2, VOC, NOx, PM ↓ CH4 ↑
– Biomass: CO2 ↓ VOC, PM, CH4 ↑
• Stationary sources:– SCR, SNCR: NOx, CO ↓, NH3, N2O, CO2 ↑
– Fluidized bed combustion: SO2, NOx↓, N2O ↑
– Advanced residential combustion: VOC, PM, CO, CH4 ↓
– FGD: SO2, PM ↓ CO2 ↑
– IGCC: CO2, SO2, NOx, PM ↓
– CHP: all pollutants ↓
• Mobile sources:– Euro-standards: NOx, VOC, PM, CO ↓ NH3, N2O ↑
– Low sulfur fuels: SO2, PM ↓
– Diesel: CO2, VOC↓, PM, NOx, SO2 ↑
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Multi-pollutant measures (2)
• Agricultural sources:– Low emission pig housing – NH3, CH4 ↓ N2O ↑
– Covered storage of slurry – NH3 ↓ CH4 ↑
– Injection of manure – NH3 ↓ N2O ↑
– Anaerobic digestion (biogas) – CH4, N2O ↓ CO2 ↑ NH3 ↓↑
• Other sources– Gas recovery and flaring: CH4 ↓ CO2, PM, VOC, SO2, NOx, CO ↑
– Gas recovery and re-use: CH4 ↓ CO2 ↑
– Improving flaring efficiency: PM, VOC, NOx, SO2, CO ↓
– Waste incineration: CH4 ↓ CO2 ↑
– Gas recovery from wastewater treatment: CH4 ↓ CO2 ↑
In total approx 500 measures with multi-pollutant impacts considered in GAINS
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Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO2 mitigation
90 €
20 €
0 €
National NEC projections
CAFE BL
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105%
CO2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions
Air
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a 0
€ c
ase
SO2 NOx PM25EU-25, 2020
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Health target (million life years lost)
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Benchmark
Net costs for further air pollution control as a function of CO2 mitigation
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95 100 105 110 115 No constraint
Health target (million life years lost)
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r
Benchmark -20% GHGs
Ambition level of Thematic Strategy
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Population, GDP and coal use for power generationin Andra Pradesh (projection provided by TERI)
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Population GDP Coal use for power generation
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PM10 SO2 NOx CO2
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Coal with current air pollution (AP) standards Coal + advanced air pollution control Max. wind+hydro & advanced AP controls With IGCC for new plants after 2015IGCC + carbon capture
Emissions from electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2020, relative to 2000
With advanced end-of-pipe emission control technologies
Level in 2000
With current emission standards
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Costs of electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2020
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Coal with current APstandards
Coal + advanced airpollution control
Max. wind+hydro IGCC after 2015
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IGCC Coal costs PM control SO2 control NOx control Wind Small hydropower
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Emissions from electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2020, relative to 2000with IGCC at new plants after 2015 (without carbon capture)
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PM10 SO2 NOx CO2
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Coal with current air pollution (AP) standards Coal + advanced air pollution control Max. wind+hydro & advanced AP controls With IGCC for new plants after 2015IGCC + carbon capture
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Conv. coal with currentAP standards
Coal + advanced airpollution control
Max. wind+hydro With IGCC for new plantsafter 2015
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IGCC Coal costs PM control SO2 control NOx control Wind Small hydropower
Costs of electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2020
Uncertainty range quoted by IPCC
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Expected impacts of the Nitrate Directive and optimized feed on EU-25 NH3 emissions
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2000 CLE 2020 Targetindicated in
TSAP
NEC baseline as ofDecember 2006
With fullimplementation ofnitrate directiveWith nitratedirective and low Nfeed
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Functions of integrated assessment models
• Integration over cause-effects chain– Multi-disciplinary approach (since RAINS 1.1)
• Balancing of measures – Cost-effectiveness optimization (since 2nd Sulphur Protocol)
• Integration over multiple benefits– Multi-effect approach (since Gothenburg-protocol)
• Integration over scales– Inclusion of health impacts (since CAFE)
• Integration of multiple policy areas– Link to climate policy, agriculture
• Integration with economic impacts– More comprehensive quantification of human welfare
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Per-capita NOx emissions1940-2000
1940
North America1970
2000
2000
Europe1960
2000
Russia1990
East Asia
South Asia0
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75
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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
kg N
Ox/
cap
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Per-capita NOx emissions1940-2030
2000
1970 North America
1940
2030
2030
1960Europe
2000
Russia
2000
East Asia
South Asia0
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75
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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
kg N
Ox/
cap
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Integrating economic development not as a slide
• Conventional cost concept considers investments in clean air as a welfare loss – heavy argument in policy debate (e.g., EU for CAFE, developing countries, US for climate)– Not all investments do lead to loss in GDP (recycling)– Non-monetary aspects of welfare excluded
• Integrated assessment can come up with additional quantified indicators that constitute parts of welfare (life expectancy, nitrogen pollution in water, etc.)
• Not necessarily based on monetary evaluation of benefits
• This could eventually allow a more comprehensive measure for welfare – and a re-evaluation of the value of environmental investments
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Conclusions