table of contents - npes5 the worldwide market for print 2.0 (wwmp 2.0) study examines the current...
TRANSCRIPT
Table of contents
2
Table of contents
2
Executive summary 7
Overall print packaging market 13
Print packaging segments
Drivers of change: Industry and external
Drivers of change: Macroeconomic and demographic
Recommendations
Deep dives
Appendix: Regional profiles 107
23
40
49
56
63
Appendix: Country profiles
Appendix: EIU methodology
Appendix: Definitions
115
137
143
3 3
Foreword
Worldwide Market for Print 2.0
WWMP 2.0 – Packaging study
Today’s global business leaders face multinational challenges and constant change. The same can be said about print packaging in the global
setting. While much of the world business environment appears to work in tandem addressing many of the same challenges, a closer look unveils
very different economic, demographic, social and environmental issues from country to country—and different packaging segments within those
countries. In 2013 NPES published the “World-Wide Market for Print” (WWMP), a landmark study that framed an understanding of the size of the
global print and imaging industry, but also the myriad of opportunities and challenges of an international marketplace.
Continuing the WWMP study series and acknowledging the importance of this world view, in 2016 a collaborative partnership was forged between
NPES -- The Association for Suppliers of Printing, Publishing and Converting Technologies (NPES) -- in the United States and the Mechanical
Engineering Industry Association of Germany (Verband Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau—VDMA). The leadership of both organizations
recognized a need to revisit the 2013 WWMP research work and to drill more deeply, to provide a more current view of specific segments within
the global print market, while offering their own unique perspectives forged together in a jointly produced landmark study.
Phase One of this activity in 2016 focuses on examining the global print packaging market within 26 countries across the globe, spanning all
regions which, combined, represent 80% of global GDP and 70% of the world’s population. The renowned Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
was commissioned by the NPES and VDMA to conduct new primary and secondary research, assess key drivers and provide findings pertinent
to today’s global print packaging market, along with a view forward through 2020. Phase Two in 2017 will execute a similar multi-country
methodology to explore the global commercial & marketing and publishing segments.
The United States, Germany and other mature print markets appear to have limited capacity for growth in traditional print; however, the story is
quite different for print packaging, especially in developing regions of the world. This study highlights regions and countries where economic
indicators predict rising populations, prosperity and potential, and with it, opportunities for the growing, value-added packaging industry. It
provides insights into both developed and developing markets, their differences and similarities, as well as the continuing and growing
complexity of packaging technology necessary to satisfy global demands and requirements.
In addition to this report, a user-friendly data dashboard has been developed allowing comparisons across countries and packaging segments
by market size, growth rates and forecasts to 2020 for all 26 countries and major global regions.
We personally wish to thank the talented team from the EIU for their expertise and dedication to this research endeavor. Further, we especially
express our gratitude to the members of the joint Task Force of NPES and VDMA members, for their diligent work on this truly exceptional project.
December 2016
Thayer Long
President
NPES
Dr. Markus Heering
Managing Director, Printing & Paper Technology
VDMA
4 4
Task Force Members
Worldwide Market for Print 2.0
WWMP 2.0 – Packaging study
Member Title Company
Mr. Joerg Daehnhardt Director, Product Management, VLF Heidelberg U.S.A.
Mr. Dennis C. DeYoung Strategy Manager, GCBG Strategy & Marketing Communications Xerox Corporation
Ms. Mona Elibiary PageWide Web Press Marketing Hewlett Packard
Company
Mr. Eric Frank Senior Vice President, Marketing and Product Management KBA-North America
Mr. Christof Herschbach Head of Business Development Windmöller & Hölscher
Mr. Bernd Heusinger Deputy Head of Marketing Koenig & Bauer AG
Mr. Thomas Huhn Managing Director of the Paper Division / CSO TKM
Ms. Ashley Jackson Global Marketing Communications MacDermid Graphics
Solutions
Mr. Steven P. Mattingly Senior Vice President Southern Lithoplate Inc.
Mr. David J. Murphy WW Director of Marketing & Business Development Hewlett Packard
Company
Mr. Werner Schwab Head of Product Management Heidelberg Web Carton
Converting GmbH
Mr. Roland Stasiczek Fellow, Inkjet CF Business Development Canon U.S.A., Inc.
Mr. Marcus Tralau Chief Executive Officer KAMA GmbH
5 5
The Worldwide Market for Print 2.0 (WWMP 2.0) study examines the current state and outlook for the
global print packaging market
Background to the study
WWMP 2.0 – Packaging study
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), in partnership with
NPES -- The Association for Suppliers of Printing, Publishing
and Converting Technologies -- and VDMA -- Verband
Deutscher Maschinen- und Anlagenbau -- has conducted a
study of the global print packaging industry.
The objective of the study was to develop a historical
assessment of the global print packaging market between 2011
and 2015 and to project its development over 2016 to 2020.
The study examined five segments of the print packaging
industry: corrugated, folding carton and paperboard, flexible,
labels and tags, and other print packaging.
The EIU developed the market sizing, forecasts and insights in
this report from February to September 2016. Primary and
secondary research efforts were combined with statistical
techniques to estimate the historical market sizes (2011–15) of
the print packaging segments.
WWMP 2.0 follows on from the WWMP 1.0 study (2013), also
conducted by the EIU, which covered more than 50 countries
spanning 2007–17.
Product scope
Corrugated print packaging
Folding carton and
paperboard print packaging
Flexible print packaging
Label and tags printing
Other print packaging
Geographic scope
26 countries
6 deep dives
Time period
2011–2015 historical
2016–2020 forecast
6 6
26 countries spanning all global regions, representing 80% of global GDP and 70% of the world’s
population, were selected and analyzed, based on their overall size and global importance within the
industry, as well as the potential growth opportunities they present.
Geographic scope
WWMP 2.0 – Packaging study
Canada
United States
North America
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Latin America Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
Asia-Pacific
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
United Kingdom
Western Europe
Poland
Russia
Turkey
Central &
Eastern Europe
Nigeria
South Africa
Africa
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Middle East
Executive summary
8 8
Demand for print packaging will continue to grow robustly over the
next several years, underpinned by continued economic growth,
development, and positive demographic shifts around the world.
Print packaging globally will continue to grow at an average annual
rate of 5.2% in 2016–20.
The global print packaging market is concentrated, with the top five
markets accounting for 80% of the total market. The two largest print
packaging markets in our study, the US ($78bn) and China ($69bn),
together account for 60% of the total print packaging market in our
study. Japan, Germany and India round out the five largest markets.
There is considerable variation across countries and regions.
Developed markets will see steady though muted growth. The bright
spots are found in the emerging markets of Asia, in particular India,
Indonesia and Vietnam. In Africa, and specifically Nigeria, strong
growth is expected, albeit with a higher degree of risk.
Broadly speaking, emerging markets are catching up, converging
with developed markets, a positive product of rising incomes,
increased urbanization, growing middle classes, and shifting consumer
preferences.
The print packaging industry will remain fragmented, in spite of
continued consolidation, especially in developed markets such as the
US, where thin margins are encouraging corporate M&A activity.
Advances in technology, smart packaging, and the continued rise
of sustainability are additional trends that will shape the industry over
the coming years.
The print packaging market totals $244bn in 2016 across the 26 major markets in this study. The US
is the largest market at $78bn, closely followed by China at $69bn.
The print packaging landscape
Executive summary
2011 2016 2020Flexible Labels & tagsFolding carton CorrugatedOther
Print packaging market in 2011, 2016
and 2020
Note: Share of the sum for all 26 countries in this study.
Average CAGR in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Average
CAGR
5.2%
7%
7%
36%
35%
20%
20%
12% 12%
25% 26%
$244bn
$286bn
7%
36%
20%
12%
25%
$231bn
Average
CAGR
5.2%
Exchange rate fluctuations
mute growth in US dollar
terms vis à vis local-
currency terms.
9 9
Economic growth, rising literacy, and shifting lifestyle and consumer
preferences have created more sophisticated consumers and spurred
increased demand for packaged goods, in the form of processed
foods and beverages, toys, electronics, and pharmaceuticals,
particularly in emerging markets. The overall print packaging market
in emerging markets will grow at an average annual rate of 6.0%,
more than twice the 2.6% rate forecast for developed markets in
2016–20. Developed markets continue to experience muted growth
in the wake of the financial crisis. Uncertainty from the June 2016
Brexit vote has underscored fragility in the outlook for these markets.
Flexible print packaging will be the fastest-growing segment at an
average annual rate of 5.6% in 2016–20. The lightweighting of
packages and the advancement of digital printing on flexible
packages will drive the segment to gain global market share by 2020.
The labels & tags and the folding carton print packaging segments
are both growing at a still-strong annual average rate of 5.2% over
2016–20. Growth of labels & tags is due to the rise of digital printing
and small-batch products. Folding carton will grow on the back of
rising incomes and urbanization in emerging markets, as city dwellers
consumer more packaged goods than their rural counterparts.
The corrugated segment, the largest and most mature market, will
be the slowest-growing print packaging segment in 2016–20, albeit
at a robust annual average growth rate of 4.5%. The continued rise
of e-commerce and trends such as digital printing for high-quality
marketing packaging will support growth.
The rise of emerging markets remains the dominant trend and driving force behind the print packaging
industry outlook. In terms of segments, flexible print packaging shows a strong outlook, supported by
lightweighting and the rise of digital printing.
The future view of print packaging
Executive summary
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Flexible Labels & tagsFolding carton CorrugatedOther Total
Segment growth in developed and emerging
markets in 2012-2020
Note: Growth is the average growth rate across the countries in
the developed and emerging markets, respectively, in local
currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Emerging
markets
Developed
markets
Forecast
10 10
Key print packaging trends
Executive summary
Economic growth underpins growth of the print packaging industry.
Asia-Pacific drives print packaging growth, powered by India, Indonesia, China and Vietnam.
Economic growth
Urbanization is a key driver of growth in demand for print packaging products.
Emerging markets continue to experience more rapid urbanization rates than developed economies.
Urbanization
Consumption behaviors change as disposable incomes increase.
The rise of the middle class translates into more consumers and growth for the print packaging industry.
Rising middle class
Global trade underpins demand for print packaging.
Protectionism is a growing concern around the world, with the future of major trade deals still uncertain.
Global trade flows
US dollar appreciation and commodity price bust has hurt many emerging market currencies, influencing trade flows and output of highly integrated economies.
Exchange rates
Digital printing allows for more customized short runs for packaging.
Smart packaging is the next step in terms of innovative packaging.
Technological
innovations
Consumers are more conscious of their green footprints, such as the packaging of the products they buy.
Lightweighting is a common practice.
Environmental and
sustainability concerns
Regional sourcing and localization have emerged as cost-cutting measures to improve resiliency to political and economic shocks.
Cost-cutting
to improve
resiliency
Craft, customized products are gaining market space, especially among middle-income consumers.
Rise of
small-batch
products
Consumers are rebelling against traditional, marketing-led consumerism and are seeking more product differentiation.
Product
differentiation
Industry-specific and
external trends
Macroeconomic and
demographic trends
11 11
Key takeaways
Executive summary
Markets Regions
Segments Trends
Consumers in developed markets, notably the US, are
buying from a wider variety of brands and product
types and sizes and are focusing more on health,
wellness and environmentally friendly products.
The rising middle class will continue to support
China’s consumer market. Print packaging growth,
however, will slow down as manufacturing moves to
cheaper labor markets in South-East Asia.
Fast-growing incomes and urbanization in India,
Indonesia, Nigeria and Vietnam bolster print
packaging growth in those markets.
The bright spots are found in the emerging markets of
Asia-Pacific, in particular India, Indonesia and
Vietnam. Africa also offers high potential, albeit with a
higher degree of political and economic risk.
Developed markets, particularly those in Western
Europe, continue to experience muted growth in the
wake of the financial crisis. Uncertainty from the June
2016 Brexit vote has underscored fragility in the
outlook for these markets.
Protectionist rhetoric in developed and emerging
markets poses a risk to trade, affecting corrugates as
well as other types of print packaging.
Flexible print packaging will be the fastest-growing
segment over 2016–20, owing to cost-cutting and
more environmentally friendly practices such as
lightweighting.
The labels & tags and the folding carton print
packaging segments are growing at very similar rates.
Digital printing and small-batch product growth bolster
labels & tags, while urbanization and consumption of
packaged goods supports folding carton.
The corrugated segment is slow growing because of
its large size. E-commerce is a driving force that will
keep it growing at a still-healthy rate of 4.5%.
The industry will remain fragmented, in spite of
continued consolidation in developed markets like the
US, where thin margins are encouraging M&A activity.
Big-brand products will continue to dominate the
market, but smaller-batch, local products are
growing rapidly. Digital printing, best for short
printing runs, serves consumers demanding a more
diversified array of products, especially within labels &
tags, but increasingly with other segments as well.
Consumers are demanding and producers are
delivering more environmentally friendly
packaging, such as lightweighting and reducing
materials.
12 12
The EIU identified four overarching recommendations for print packagers, converters,
brand owners, and input manufacturers (equipment, inks and substrates).
Recommendations
Recommendations
Invest in key
country markets
Seek value along
the supply chain
Stay ahead on
green packaging
Keep up with
trends and
technologies
Add consulting to the menu of products and services.
Continue development of machine-to-machine technologies.
Lightweighting of packages makes them cheaper to ship and manufacture.
Create internal regulatory and quality assurance teams to monitor your product.
Customized and short-run print packaging is on the rise, and print packagers will be using more digital print packaging going forward.
Adopt more smart packaging for your products.
While developed markets are stable and will continue to play
a big part in the industry, emerging markets are where
growth will be concentrated in the 2016–20 period.
Emerging markets will add $24bn of the $44bn additional
revenue to print packaging between 2015 and 2020.
Consumers are not only
looking for a recyclable product
and package, but a reduced
footprint over its entire
production.
Governments will strengthen
environmentally friendly
packaging regulations,
bolstering growth of green
packaging globally.
Overall print packaging market
14 14
The print packaging market represents a bright spot of steady, positive growth in the context of
uncertainty surrounding the outlook for other segments of the print industry.
The print packaging market
Overall print packaging market
Demand for print packaging will continue to grow robustly over the next several years,
underpinned by continued economic growth, development and positive
demographic shifts around the world.
Print packaging globally will continue to grow at an average annual rate of 5.2% in
2016–20, just below the 5.3% rate of over 2011–15.
Note that over the 2011–15 period, the US dollar appreciated considerably against most
other currencies.
Within the positive picture there is considerable variation across countries and regions.
While there will be steady growth in developed markets, the bright spots are found in the
emerging markets of Asia, in particular India, Indonesia and Vietnam. Africa, and
specifically Nigeria, also offers high potential, albeit with a higher degree of risk.
Broadly speaking, emerging markets are catching up, converging with developed
markets, a positive product of rising incomes, increased urbanization, growing middle
classes, and shifting consumer preferences.
The industry will remain fragmented, in spite of continued consolidation in particular in
developed markets like the US, where thin margins are encouraging corporate activity.
Advances in technology, smart packaging, and the continued rise of sustainability
are additional trends that will take shape in the industry in the coming years.
Note that in 2011–15, the US dollar appreciated considerably against most other currencies. For the purposes
of drilling down to the underlying market dynamics, when discussing growth rates, this report refers to
growth rates in local currency units (unless otherwise noted).
Growth rates and values in this study are expressed in nominal terms.
15 15
Corrugated print packaging has the highest
share of the global print packaging market (36%),
due to its widespread use in displays, packaged
consumer goods and shipments, all of which are
growing strongly.
Flexible (second-largest) and folding carton
(third-largest) have similar market shares (25% and
20%, respectively), and often compete in the same
consumer packaging market, such as cereals and
baked goods, as well as the personal care
products market.
Labels & tags, primarily used in packaged foods
and consumer goods, has a market share of 12%.
The two largest print packaging markets in our
study, the US ($76bn) and China ($69bn), together
account for 60% of the total print packaging market
in our study.
Japan, Germany and India round out the five
largest markets, with $16bn, $15bn and $12bn
markets, respectively.
The global print packaging market is concentrated,
with the top five markets accounting for 78% of the
total market.
The print packaging market grew from $231bn in 2011, to $242bn in 2015. Corrugated print
packaging has remained the largest print packaging segment.
The current market
Overall print packaging market
Flexible 25.0%
Labels & tags 11.8%
Folding carton 20.3%
Corrugated 36.2%
Other 6.7%
Overall segment share in 2015
Note: Share of the sum for all 26
countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
$242bn
0
20
40
60
80
US China Japan Germany UK
Billi
on
s
Top 5 print packaging markets in 2015 (US$)
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other
Source: EIU.
76 69
16 15 12
16 16
The US continues to be the largest print packaging market in the world, but Asia-Pacific is the region
with the largest such market, due to the combined might of China, Japan and India.
The current market
Overall print packaging market
Print packaging growth in 2011–15 averaged 5.3%
per year in the 26 countries in this study.
The US grew at an average annual growth rate of
2.4% in 2011–13 and picked up to 2.8% in 2014–15.
Western Europe muddled through 2011–13 with
average annual growth of 0.6%, but growth picked
up in 2014–15, at an annual average rate of 2.0%.
In the emerging world, print packaging growth in
Latin America, Middle East, Africa and Russia started
to slow in 2012 with the end of the commodities boom,
which hurt consumer expenditures in those regions.
Asia-Pacific grew strongly in 2011–15 overall, but
gradually slowed towards the end of the period. The
region expanded 7.8% in 2012, slowing to 6.3% by
2015. Because of these strong growth dynamics,
Asia-Pacific’s share of the global print
packaging market jumped from 39% in 2011 to
43%, a 4-percentage-point gain. On the other hand,
Western Europe’s share of the industry shrank from
24% in 2011 to 20% in 2015.
Other emerging regions such as Latin America
and Central & Eastern Europe lost market share,
due to relatively poorer growth performance over
these years.
Asia-Pacific 38.8%
North America 31.0%
Western Europe 23.7%
Latin America 3.6%
C. & E. Europe 1.8%
Africa 0.5%
Middle East 0.6%
Overall regional share in 2011
Note: Share of the sum for all
26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
$231bn
Asia-Pacific 42.8%
North America 32.5%
Western Europe 19.8%
Latin America 2.7%
C. & E. Europe 1.2%
Africa 0.5%
Middle East 0.5%
Overall regional share in 2015
Note: Share of the sum for all
26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
$242bn
17 17
Rising incomes and urbanization bolster print packaging growth. Economic growth, rising literacy, and shifting lifestyle and consumer preferences have created more sophisticated consumers and spurred increased demand for packaged goods, in the form of processed foods and beverages, toys, electronics, and pharmaceuticals.
In spite of the recent slump of emerging markets, they will continue to outperform developed markets and become 41% of the global market by 2020, a leap from 33% in 2011. Print packaging in emerging markets will grow at an average annual rate of 6.0%, more than twice the 2.6% rate forecast for developed markets. Developed markets, particularly those in Western Europe, continue to experience muted growth in the wake of the financial crisis. Uncertainty from the June 2016 Brexit vote has underscored fragility in the outlook for these markets.
The concentration of the print packaging industry in the countries with major print markets will remain a key trend: the top 5 markets in 2011 were 74% of the market. By 2020, they will be 79% of the market.
China, the largest emerging market, is expected to continue to grow considerably over the coming years. While the US will remain the largest print packaging market in 2020, China will have closed the gap considerably.
The rise of emerging markets remains the dominant trend and driving force behind the print
packaging industry outlook.
The outlook
Overall print packaging market
Asia-Pacific 43.7%
North America 33.0%
Western Europe 18.8%
Latin America 2.5%
C. & E. Europe 1.1%
Africa 0.4%
Middle East 0.5%
Overall regional share in 2016
Note: Share of the sum for all
26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
$244bn
Asia-Pacific 45.6%
North America 31.5%
Western Europe 18.4%
Latin America 2.6%
C. & E. Europe 1.1%
Africa 0.4%
Middle East 0.5%
Overall regional share in 2020
Note: Share of the sum for all
26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
$286bn
18 18
The highest growth in print packaging in 2016–20 will come
from countries in Asia-Pacific, owing to India, Indonesia and
Vietnam. Increasing incomes and the rise of the middle class are
the major sources of growth in those countries.
The slow-growing markets are (for the most part) developed,
mature economies. Europe features heavily here, with countries
continuing to grapple with economic and political fragility. The UK’s
bottom ranking comes after forecasts were revised in the wake of
the Brexit vote, which is anticipated to take a strong toll on domestic
purchasing power and consumption. Japan is right behind the UK
at the bottom, owing to ongoing economic and demographic
weakness, in spite of Abenomics, a set of policies that combine
fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms.
All the top 13 fastest markets over 2016–20 are emerging markets. The developed markets, which
are mature and undergoing economic and political challenges, fall to the bottom of the rankings.
The outlook
Overall print packaging market
1.1%
1.1%
1.7%
1.8%
2.4%
2.5%
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
2.9%
3.5%
3.9%
4.0%
4.6%
5.7%
5.9%
6.0%
6.3%
7.1%
7.5%
7.6%
7.8%
9.7%
10.1%
10.3%
12.0%
UK
Japan
Italy
France
Russia
Netherlands
Germany
US
Canada
Poland
Australia
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
Brazil
Chile
China
Mexico
Turkey
Philippines
South Africa
Colombia
Iran
Vietnam
Indonesia
Nigeria
India
Growth rates in 2016-20
Note: Compound annual growth rate in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Bottom half
Top half
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billi
on
s
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other Total growth (%)
Note: This includes all 26 countries in this study. All figures are in US$ terms.
Source: EIU.
Overall print packaging market in 2011-20 (US$)
19 19
In both emerging and developed
markets, flexible print packaging will
be the fastest-growing segment over
2016–20, at average annual rates of
7.6% and 2.8%, respectively. The
average annual growth rate of flexible
print packaging for all countries is 5.6%
in 2016–20.
The labels & tags and the folding
carton print packaging segments are
growing at very similar rates in both
emerging and developed markets.
Across all countries, both labels & tags
and folding carton are growing at an
annual average rate of 5.2% in 2016–20.
The corrugated segment will be the
slowest–growing print packaging
segment in 2016–20, much as it was in
the historical period of 2011–15. In
emerging markets, the corrugated
segment will expand on average 6.4% in
2016–20, while it will grow by only 1.9%
on average in developed markets in the
same period.
Print packaging segments will grow more strongly and more uniformly in emerging markets compared
with developed markets.
The outlook
Overall print packaging market
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other Total
Segment growth in developed and emerging markets in 2012-2020
Note: Growth is the average growth rate across the countries in the developed and emerging markets,
respectively, in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Emerging
markets
Developed
markets
Forecast
20 20
Emerging regions generally have high growth but smaller print packaging markets. Asia-Pacific is the
exception, having the happy confluence of both large and fast-growing markets.
Print packaging market size and growth
Overall print packaging market
90.1 North
America
7.4
52.3
3.1
1.3
1.0
130.3
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Central &
Eastern Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia-
Pacific
> 8%
6%-8%
4%-6%
2%-4%
< 2%
Total print packaging
market, average growth
(2016–20)
Size of regional
print packaging
market in 2020
in US$ bn
21 21
In 2015, the five largest country markets for
overall print packaging were the US, China, Japan,
Germany and the UK.
India surpasses the UK in 2016, becoming the
fifth-largest market. India, growing fast, by 2020 will
almost catch up to Japan, the fourth-largest market
but experiencing a continuation of the prolonged
period of stagnant growth.
The US and China alone made up 60% of the total
print packaging market in 2015. While their
combined market share will remain largely the same
(at 59%) in 2020, China will have gained
considerably against the US. In 2015, the US print
packaging market was 11 percentage points
larger than China’s. By 2020, the differential will
be less than 4 percentage points.
The print packaging industry globally is
geographically concentrated, and will become
more so over the forecast period. The share of the
top five markets in 2015 (which includes UK but
excludes India) is 78%, but by 2020 the share will
increase to 79%.
The US will remain the largest print packaging market in 2020, though China will narrow the gap
considerably. The UK’s weakness will make room for India to enter the top five largest print packaging
markets.
Largest markets
Overall print packaging market
Top 5 77.6%
Bottom 21 22.4%
Top 5 share of market in 2015
Note: Share of the sum for all 26 countries in this study.
Top 5 countries are US, China, Japan, Germany and UK.
Source: EIU.
8.5%
10.1%
10.2%
10.5%
12.4%
Iran
Vietnam
Indonesia
Nigeria
India
Top 5 growing countries in 2016-20
Note: Compound annual growth rate in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
22 22
India, Nigeria, and Indonesia have favorable
demographics on their side. With large populations
and relatively small values of print packaging market
per head, there is significant room for long-term
growth in these markets.
With rising labor costs and economic moderation
in China, global manufacturers are looking at other
Asian countries to base their factories. South-East
Asia is a popular destination and Vietnam is its
flagbearer. With relatively cheap labor costs and a
well-educated population relative to its regional peers,
Vietnam is attracting investments, expanding its
status as a manufacturing hub, supporting both the
consumer base and the print packaging industry.
Iran remained closed from Western investment and
the global community for many years due to heavy
sanctions imposed by the US, EU and UN. In 2015,
a US deal was reached, establishing a timeline for
the lifting of sanctions. The opening of Iran’s market
will boost internal consumption and manufacturing
and foster a positive environment for print packaging.
In absolute terms, China will be the biggest
winner, adding $15bn to its print packaging market,
nearly the size of Germany’s total print packaging
market, between 2015 and 2020.
Changing global dynamics, shifting demographics and increasing regulation and policy
implementations are the drivers of the fastest-growing print packaging markets in 2016–20.
Growth markets
Overall print packaging market
15.2
10.7
6.8
2.9 2.7 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6
02468
10121416
Billio
ns
Dollar growth in print packaging market from 2015 to 2020
Source: EIU.
6.0%
6.2%
6.9%
7.4%
7.6%
8.5%
10.1%
10.2%
10.5%
12.4%
0% 5% 10% 15%
Turkey
Mexico
Philippines
Colombia
South Africa
Iran
Vietnam
Indonesia
Nigeria
India
Top ten fastest growing markets in 2016-20 Total average
5.2%
Note: Compound annual growth rate for 2016-20.
Source: EIU.
Print packaging segments
24 24
The flexible segment offers great opportunity: the market is relatively large and the outlook is for
strong positive growth, supported by shifting preferences and rising incomes.
Segment comparison
Print packaging segments
Growth
2016–20
Current
size
Overall
potential for
success*
Flexible The second-largest segment will be growing
strongly on the back of rising incomes in
emerging markets and shifting preferences in
developing markets.
Labels &
tags
The smallest of the four main segments in this
study will be growing strongly, as demand for
custom, short-run print packaging rises.
Corrugated Corrugated, the largest segment in our study,
is a mature market in most countries, so
growth will be relatively lower but stable.
Folding
carton
Folding carton and flexible generally move
together, but changes in consumer lifestyles
and preferences are shifting some growth
away from folding carton and towards flexible. Medium
High
Very low
Low
Very high
= Very favorable
= Unfavorable
= Stable
= Favorable
* The “Overall potential of success” is a qualitative assessment of growth opportunity in the forecast period. It is success in terms of
growth potential for printers and converters.
25 25
Corrugated print packaging overview
Print packaging segments: Corrugated
Corrugated print packaging ranks first among the four main packaging segments in terms of size and
fourth in terms of projected growth.
The total corrugated print packaging
market size in 2015 is $87.6bn. By
2020, it is expected to reach $101.3bn.
Revenues for corrugated print
packaging expanded at an average
4.6% per year in 2011–15 in local-
currency terms and will increase 3.5%
in 2016–20.
3.5%
While corrugated remains the largest
segment, it is a relatively mature
market, and growth, which typically
tracks real GDP, is expected to be
steady but slower than other segments.
84 86 87 90 88 88 90 93 96 101
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billi
on
s
Market size in US$ (left scale) Growth in LCU terms (right scale)
Note: Total growth corresponds to average growth in local currency terms of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Corrugated print packaging size and growth in 2011-20 (US$)
$101.3
26 26
Corrugated: Trends and products
Print packaging segments: Corrugated
The corrugated segment, driven by a dynamic e-commerce industry and manufacturing growth in
emerging economies, is a large, growing part of the print packaging industry.
Key trends
Exports and shipments support demand in the corrugated segment, and large,
export-oriented markets typically have large corrugated markets.
While mature, corrugated will continue to grow at a moderate pace as e-commerce
gains ground owing to increasing accessibility through mobile devices, competitive
prices, urbanization and fast shipping.
China has the world’s largest e-commerce market, which is reflected in its large
corrugated segment. In 2015 online shopping accounted for 12.9% of total
consumer goods retail sales. In the first five months of 2016 online sales slowed,
but still the growth rate remained impressive at above 25%. The Indian e-
commerce market is growing strongly; Goldman Sachs estimates India’s e-
commerce market more than doubled in size from $11bn in 2015 to $23bn in 2016.
Corrugated products are considered to be affected by lightweighting and ‘down
gauging’, or using fewer materials to produce packages to maintain pricing
advantages against competitors.
Corrugated is traditionally a lower-value-added segment, but it is innovating and
using new technologies, such as printing Quick Response (QR) codes on consumer
boxes and digital printing for good-quality, attractive packaging and marketing
materials. Experts say that this trend is on the rise, signaling growth potential within
a higher-value-added segment of the corrugated space.
Key products
Shipment boxes, storage boxes, filing boxes, electronics packaging, moving boxes.
27 27
Corrugated, the largest print packaging segment, is dominated by the Asia-Pacific region, which is
home to the largest and fastest-growing markets. Shipments and exports are a key driver, for
example of consumer goods and electronics from the Asia-Pacific market.
Corrugated: Top markets
Print packaging segments: Corrugated
0
10
20
30
40
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bill
ion
s
India Germany Japan US China
Forecast
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
Corrugated print packaging in the top 5 markets in 2015-2020
Bottom 21 17.6%
India 5.4%
Germany 6.1%
Japan 7.2%
US 29.1%
China 34.6%
Top 5 82.4%
Corrugated share of the top 5 markets
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
0.7%
0.8%
1.2%
1.4%
1.7%
1.7%
1.9%
2.4%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
3.1%
3.4%
4.0%
4.4%
5.1%
5.4%
5.8%
6.0%
6.4%
6.4%
6.8%
9.4%
9.5%
9.6%
12.3%
Japan
UK
Netherlands
Italy
US
France
Poland
Russia
Canada
Australia
Germany
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
Chile
Brazil
Turkey
Mexico
China
South Africa
Philippines
Colombia
Iran
Indonesia
Vietnam
Nigeria
India
Corrugated growth rates in 2016-20
Note: Compound annual growth rate in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
28 28
Flexible print packaging overview
Print packaging segments: Flexible
Flexible print packaging ranks second among the four main packaging segments in terms of size and
first in terms of projected growth.
The total flexible print packaging market
size in 2015 is $60.6bn. By 2020, it is
expected to reach $73.2bn.
Revenues for flexible print packaging
expanded at an average 5.9% per year
in 2011–15 in local currency terms and
will increase 5.7% in 2016–20.
5.7% $73.2
There is considerable opportunity in the
flexible market, as consumer incomes
and expenditures underpin packaged
goods demand, and producer desire for
shorter runs increases.
57 59 60 62 61 62 63 66 69 73
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
20
40
60
80
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billi
on
s
Market size in US$ (left scale) Growth in LCU terms (right scale)
Note: Total growth corresponds to average growth in local currency terms of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Flexible print packaging size and growth in 2011-20 (US$)
29 29
Flexible: Trends and products
Print packaging segments: Flexible
Due to its economical and innovative value, flexible packaging is forecast to be the fastest-growing
segment over the next five years.
Key trends
Growing demand for shorter runs and job sizes as consumers,
particularly in developed markets, prefer a wide variety of products
in different shapes and sizes, as well as features such as security,
handles, zippers and spouts.
Shifting consumer preferences towards pre-packaged foods,
particularly in urbanizing markets but also in some developed
markets where convenience is paramount, is a key driver.
The packaging industry is shifting to flexible and away from folding
carton and other rigid packaging, because it is considered more
attractive, cheaper, sustainable, recyclable and easier to transport.
There is an increasing variety of new flexible packaging
applications in the food and beverage space, from baby food to
condiment stand-up pouches.
Flexible packaging often requires low-migration inks, as it is directly
in contact with the product. Because of this, the market for low-
migration inks will grow strongly, accompanying the trends of flexible
packaging.
Intelligent packaging and security applications, which are
generally technologies applied on flexible packaging, will also lift
growth of flexible packaging in 2016–20.
Key products
Household supplies, food goods, pet food, personal goods.
30 30
The second-largest segment is dominated by the US, but growth will be driven from emerging
markets in Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East. Growing populations, an expanding middle class
and increasing incomes are the key drivers for flexible print packaging.
Flexible: Top markets
Print packaging segments: Flexible
0
10
20
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bill
ion
s
Germany Japan India China US
Forecast
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
Flexible print packaging in the top 5 markets in 2015-2020 (US$)
Bottom 21 21.8%
India 7.6%
Germany 5.9%
Japan 6.6% US
37.2%
China 20.9%
Top 5 78.2%
Flexible share of the top 5 markets
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
0.9%
1.7%
2.2%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.1%
3.4%
3.6%
3.9%
4.4%
4.5%
4.8%
6.4%
6.5%
6.7%
6.7%
7.4%
8.3%
8.4%
9.5%
10.8%
10.8%
10.9%
12.5%
Japan
UK
France
Italy
Russia
Netherlands
Canada
Poland
US
Germany
Australia
South Korea
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
China
Turkey
Mexico
Chile
Philippines
Colombia
South Africa
Iran
Vietnam
Nigeria
Indonesia
India
Flexible growth rates in 2016-20
Note: Compound annual growth rate in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
31 31
Folding carton print packaging overview
Print packaging segments: Folding carton
Folding carton print packaging ranks third among the four main packaging segments in terms of size
and third in terms of projected growth.
The total folding carton print packaging
market size in 2015 is $49.1bn. By
2020, it is expected to reach $57.3bn.
Revenues for folding carton print
packaging expanded at an average
5.4% per year in 2011–15 in local
currency terms and will increase 5.2%
in 2016–20.
5.2% $57.3
Growth will be supported by the rise of
the middle class, especially in emerging
countries. In more developed markets,
however, there is a general shift away
from folding carton and towards flexible.
47 48 49 51 49 49 50 52 54 57
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
20
40
60
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billi
on
s
Market size in US$ (left scale) Growth in LCU terms (right scale)
Note: Total growth corresponds to average growth in local currency terms of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Folding carton print packaging size and growth in 2011-20 (US$)
32 32
Folding carton: Trends and products
Print packaging segments: Folding carton
Despite a shift towards plastics and other substrates, folding carton demand is expected to continue
growing alongside declining raw materials prices and increasing discretionary spending.
Key trends
Similar to flexible packaging, folding carton packaging offers a significant
growth opportunity in economies with fast-expanding middle classes,
who are demanding common consumer goods such as pharmaceuticals,
pre-packaged meals, and beauty products.
But there is also a shift away from folding and towards flexible
packaging solutions, on the back of consumer preferences but also
manufacturer cost-cutting: flexible uses less material and is cheaper to
transport.
Folding carton is affected by light-weighting of packaging, as
manufacturers are cutting costs in smaller, more efficient packaging, and
marketing this move as environmentally friendly.
Folding carton is a common vessel for luxury goods and cigarettes,
both of which remain huge markets despite health concerns affecting
cigarette sales. In China for example, folding carton is a popular
packaging on the back of the strong domestic demand for these goods.
Folding carton is often a print package that is combined with either
flexible (e.g., cookie box with a bag inside) or labels & tags (e.g.,
pharmaceutical product box with a bottle with labels on).
Key products
Cereal boxes, pharmaceuticals, dietary supplements, cigarettes,
household goods, food goods.
33 33
Folding carton and flexible are often substituted for each other in consumer goods packaging. While
developed markets continue to shift towards more flexible, the fast-growing emerging markets are
using relatively more folding carton.
Folding carton: Top markets
Print packaging segments: Folding carton
0
5
10
15
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bill
ion
s
UK India Germany US China
Forecast
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
Folding carton print packaging in the top 5 markets in 2015-2020
Bottom 21 25.2%
India 6.8%
Germany 9.7%
United Kingdom
6.0% US
20.9%
China 31.3%
Top 5 74.8%
Folding carton share of the top 5 markets
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
0.7%
1.5%
1.9%
1.9%
2.4%
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%
2.8%
3.5%
3.9%
4.0%
4.1%
4.7%
5.4%
5.7%
6.1%
6.6%
6.7%
7.6%
7.8%
8.7%
9.6%
9.6%
11.0%
12.2%
Japan
UK
France
Italy
US
Russia
Netherlands
Poland
Canada
Germany
South Korea
Australia
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
China
Chile
Turkey
Philippines
Mexico
Colombia
South Africa
Iran
Indonesia
Vietnam
Nigeria
India
Note: Compound annual growth rate in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Folding carton growth rates in 2016-20
34 34
Labels & tags print packaging overview
Print packaging segments: Labels & tags
Labels and tags print packaging ranks fourth among the four main packaging segments in terms of
size and second in terms of projected growth.
The total labels & tags print packaging
market size in 2015 is $28.5bn. By
2020, it is expected to reach $34.6bn.
Revenues for labels & tags print
packaging expanded at an average
5.4% per year in 2011–15 in local
currency terms and will increase 5.2%
in 2016–20.
5.2% $34.6
Labels & tags will grow strongly in
2016–20 as demand for shorter runs
increase. The more competitive market
environment also fosters opportunities
for consolidation and new entrants.
27 28 28 29 29 29 30 31 33 35
4%
5%
6%
0
10
20
30
40
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billi
on
s
Market size in US$ (left scale) Growth in LCU terms (right scale)
Note: Total growth corresponds to average growth in local currency terms of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Labels & tags print packaging size and growth in 2011-20 (US$)
35 35
Labels & tags: Trends and products
Print packaging segments: Labels & tags
With the continued rise of digital printing and more applications of SKUs to final products, the labels
and tags segment stands at the forefront of many print packaging companies’ core product offerings.
Key trends
Costly prepress services, such as purchasing plates and tooling, are
significantly reduced with the use of digital printers and laser cutting, which
are better for shorter printing runs for small-batch and varied products.
Environmental concerns over paper and plastics have also increased
demand for labeled-packaged products.
Many personal and home care products (such as toothpaste and
detergents) are shifting packaging vessels from flexible to PET
bottles, which use labels & tags.
The shift of manufacturing away from China to other cheaper labor
markets (such as Vietnam) in South-East Asia will affect labels & tags, as
clothing and textiles (tied to labels & tags), are the most likely industries to
move to those countries.
Millennials are highly educated, health conscious and have easy access
to fresh produce, demanding products that stray from traditional
consumer packaged goods that use in-mold glue-applied or transfer
labels as print packaging substrates, which could mute labels & tags growth.
Print packaging companies are focusing on wraps and sleeves as the
fastest-growing types, owing to their ability to be printed for short runs and
the greater printable surface area compared with other types of print
packaging.
Key products
Soup cans, bottled beverages, clothing.
36 36
The smallest segment is a fast-growing market, expected to expand on average 5.2% per year from
2016-2020, on par with the growth of the flexible segment.
Labels & tags: Top markets
Print packaging segments: Labels & tags
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bill
ion
s
Germany India Japan China US
Forecast
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
Labels & tags print packaging in the top 5 markets in 2015-2020 (US$)
Bottom 21 21.1%
India 6.3%
Germany 4.5%
Japan 8.5%
US 33.1%
China 26.5%
Top 5 78.9%
Labels & tags share of the top 5 markets
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
0.3%
0.9%
1.5%
2.1%
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
2.7%
2.7%
3.3%
3.7%
3.8%
3.9%
4.6%
6.1%
6.2%
6.3%
6.4%
6.9%
7.2%
7.7%
8.8%
10.4%
10.4%
10.5%
12.6%
UK
Japan
France
Poland
Netherlands
Italy
Russia
Canada
Germany
Australia
South Korea
US
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
Mexico
Turkey
Chile
China
Colombia
Philippines
South Africa
Iran
Vietnam
Nigeria
Indonesia
India
Note: Compound annual growth rate in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Labels & tags growth rates in 2016-20
37 37
The “others” segment comprises around 6.7% of the total print packaging market across the 26
countries in 2015.
Other print packaging overview
Print packaging segments: Others
Revenues for other print packaging
expanded at an average 5.4% per year
in 2011–15 in local currency terms and
will increase 5.2% in 2016–20.
5.2%
The total other print packaging market
size in 2015 is $16.3bn. By 2020, it is
expected to reach $19.4bn.
$19.4
15 16 16 17 16 17 17 18 18 19
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billi
on
s
Market size in US$ (left scale) Growth in LCU terms (right scale)
Note: Total growth corresponds to average growth in local currency terms of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Other print packaging size and growth in 2011-20 (US$)
38 38
Others: Trends and products
Print packaging segments: Others
The others segment is primarily composed of beverage cans and rigid plastics that are directly printed
on. Market growth is relatively stable, tracing broader economic and demographic trends.
Key trends
The largest part of this market, beverage cans, is
relatively mature and growth follows demographics
and GDP. Consumers perceive beverage cans to
be more recyclable than other types of packaging
for beverages, so eco-friendliness trends are
positive for the market.
Many also perceive cans to be better for colder
drinks (e.g., beer), but some have health
concerns as the can opening is more exposed to
the environment (this is particularly the case in
emerging markets where health and sanitation
risks are more prominent). To address this issue,
some packagers put lids on the beverage cans for
protection.
Direct printing on rigid plastics is in many markets
a relatively new and expensive technique. While
there is room for growth, its size is still relatively
small.
Key products
Beer and soda cans, plastic bottles and containers
for cosmetics or beverages.
39 39
The smallest market in our study will become even smaller, shrinking from 6.7% of the print
packaging market in 2015 to 5.8% in 2020.
Other print packaging top market
Print packaging segments: Others
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bill
ion
s
UK India Japan China US
Forecast
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
Other print packaging in the top 5 markets in 2015-2020 (US$)
Bottom 21 14.7%
UK 3.1%
India 7.1%
Japan 8.9% China
32.6%
US 33.7%
Top 5 85.3%
Other share of the top 5 markets
Note: Top 5 countries are the top markets in 2020.
Source: EIU.
1.2%
0.8%
1.9%
1.9%
2.7%
2.3%
3.2%
2.6%
2.8%
2.5%
3.5%
4.1%
3.8%
4.7%
5.8%
5.9%
6.3%
6.0%
7.0%
7.5%
7.6%
8.5%
10.2%
10.2%
10.5%
12.4%
UK
Japan
Italy
France
Russia
Netherlands
Germany
US
Canada
Poland
Australia
Saudi Arabia
South Korea
Brazil
Chile
China
Mexico
Turkey
Philippines
Colombia
South Africa
Iran
Vietnam
Indonesia
Nigeria
India
Note: Compound annual growth rate in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Other segment growth rates in 2016-20
Drivers of change:
Industry and external
41 41
There are a number of key trends within the print packaging industry that are shaping the outlook for
the market.
Drivers of change: industry dynamics
Drivers of change: Industry and external
Digital printing is quickly gaining ground in the print packaging industry, as short runs become more common and its applications increase.
Smart packaging is becoming more widespread as brand owners aim to ensure safety and quality control, and to prevent product counterfeiting.
Technology
innovations
Consumers are becoming more interested in sustainable and green products.
Manufacturers are responding by targeting packaging design and construction methods and using less materials in their packaging. This increases their margins and at the same time addresses the shifting consumer preference in favor of sustainable goods.
Environmental and
sustainability concerns
Regional sourcing and localization have emerged as print packaging companies invest in cost-cutting measures to improve resiliency to political and economic shocks.
Cost-cutting
to improve
resiliency
Local brands are growing fast as consumer preferences shift towards craft, customized products.
This supports short-run, localized production by vertically-integrated print packaging companies, and the provision of consultancy services by print packaging companies.
Rise of
small-batch
products
Consumers are rebelling against traditional, marketing-led consumerism and are seeking more product differentiation.
This presents opportunities for the print packaging industry to become more integrated into strategic, segmented areas of the value-chain.
Product
differentiation
42 42
Advances in technology and changes in consumer behavior will continue to have profound impacts
on the print packaging industry.
Technology innovations
Drivers of change: Industry and external
Digital and 3-D printing are two rapidly growing areas of print technology, primarily in the US, Europe and Japan as well as other developed markets. New equipment and machinery allow companies to print more efficiently on various surfaces with far fewer costs. Digital printing, best for short, good-quality printing runs, accommodates those consumers demanding a more diversified array of products. This is already disrupting the industry, as the demand for mass produced print packaging from long runs stall, giving way to customized packaging from short runs. Developed markets, especially in Europe and North America, are the leading digital print packaging markets, but strong growth will come from the Asia-Pacific region.
Digital print packaging will account for 3-5% of total print packaging by 2020. Labels & tags dominate the digital print packaging industry accounting for 75-85% of all digital print packaging revenues, but this is changing as new equipment designed for folding carton, corrugated, flexible as well as rigid plastics and metal packaging gain space in the market. As non-label digital print packaging will be coming from a low base, expect dynamic growth of those segments in the near future.
3-D printing is used in the packaging industry during the development and conceptualizing phases, as it is best for constructing prototypes at a fast turnaround in low volumes for brand owners. 3-D prototypes are used for consumer testing, marketing studies and design reviews.
Machine-to-machine communication and other Internet of Things (IoT) solutions will allow for higher productivity and faster turnaround of printed products. Most, if not every, device in the printing operation will be on the IoT grid, streamlining the printing and converting process by, for example, monitoring and replenishing ink and substrate supply, and identifying and resolving any troubleshooting automatically.
43 43
Brand owner and print packagers will incorporate more smart packaging into their product portfolio,
as it adds value to the consumer and the product.
Technology innovations
Drivers of change: Industry and external
Intelligent packaging communicates extra information than what is printed on the box, bag or label, specific to the actual product in the package via a personal mobile device or on the packaging itself. It monitors the condition of the product, informing the consumer about its quality, safety, and authenticity.
Time-temperature indicators (TTI), an intelligent packaging technology primarily attached to food and beverage products and produce, indicate to consumers when goods have been exposed to harmful temperatures. Self-adhesive labels, a significant component of the $28.5bn labels & tags market in 2015, can be affixed to shipping containers and individual packages to track temperature fluctuations, helping reduce food waste. While some in the industry have incorporated this technology, increased regulations would ensure that this feature is used in all packaging for products at risk.
While it has been in the market for many years, the use of coding and marking technology has been widening, as it helps protect brands, signal authenticity of the product and reduce the risk of counterfeit products reaching end-users. Furthermore, the increasing need for accurate data computation, tracking, and storage has also helped growth of codes and marking, as they facilitate identification and tracking of packages.
While also considered smart packaging, active packaging is different, as it interacts with the product itself. Active packaging can preserve and protect the product better than a conventional package as well as add interaction between the product, the consumer and the producer. For example, pharmaceuticals and health care professionals can use active packaging to monitor whether the patient is taking the correct dosage of a medication at the appropriate times, as the packages could have sensitive seals that communicate signals via the internet (cloud).
44 44
There is a strong focus on designing and creating printed packaging products that meet the
environmental and sustainability standards of consumers and regulators. This trend is primarily
occurring in developed markets like the US and Europe.
Environmental and sustainability concerns
Drivers of change: Industry and external
Sustainability and environmental packaging has been a growing
concern for consumers, particularly in developed markets. The
industry wants to drive more sustainable packaging, but this has
been hampered by the lack of a standard definition as to what
constitutes sustainability or eco-friendliness. Sustainable packaging
can come in many forms, from biodegradable plastics for flexible
packaging to the highly-recyclable folding carton paperboard.
Packaging is perceived as both a positive and negative in the supply
chain. While packaging protects the goods and products that
consumers need and want, it can also be harmful due to the
materials and waste it produces. This “packaging paradox”
continues to drive the sustainability discussion as companies
must choose the most environmentally-conscious substrates—paper
or plastic—as well as inks and processes. Print packaging
companies’ efforts are measured by the resources that go into
manufacturing and printing on products, as well as the emissions of
the machinery and equipment used to produce the products.
Companies are figuring out creative ways to reduce package
weights, also known as lightweighting, without compromising the
strength and durability of the package; therefore, reducing waste.
Printers and converters are incorporating these trends into their
business models by designing packages with a strong focus on
sustainability, from sourcing of materials to the end-of-life of the
package and recycling.
Life cycle of a
printed package
From the sourcing of materials to the disposing of
the used package, the industry is concerned about
making print packaging more sustainable.
45 45
Regional sourcing and localization have emerged as print packaging companies address
differentiated consumer preferences, concerns of supply-chain sustainability, and focus on cost-
cutting to improve resiliency to political and economic shocks.
Regional hubs and localization
Drivers of change: Industry and external
The industry is moving away from centralized global
production and packaging hubs, and towards more regional
sourcing and localization models.
Differing regulations within a region also influence
business decisions to concentrate production in a specific
location. Consumer demand for packaged goods is variable
depending upon local and regional preferences and
needs (e.g. cereal products preferred in folding cartons vs.
flexible pouches).
Companies are also increasingly focused on sustainability
of supply chains, in terms of both reducing emissions-
intensity of production, but also from an operational risk
perspective: shorter supply chains reduce the risk of
unanticipated interruption.
High transportation and shipment costs of raw materials,
including paper, plastics, and other substrates, to foreign
markets are driving large print packaging companies to
develop or purchase local distribution and operations hubs.
This allows for companies to focus on internal cost-cutting
measures and ensure profitability.
This shift towards regional hubs is illustrated by re-shoring
some multinational operations from China back to the
US (where a large market of discerning consumers is based)
as well as countries with lower labor costs, such as Vietnam.
Differentiated consumer
preferences
Sustainability
Shipment costs
46 46
Instead of using a third-
party print packaging
company, more firms are
doing the printing and
packaging in-house.
Some multinational
corporations are building
local plants so that they can
directly deal with the local
consumers.
Smaller companies do not
have dedicated print
packaging teams, so some
companies offer expert print
packaging consultancy
services.
Big-brand products will continue to dominate the market, but smaller-batch, local products are growing
rapidly. Demand for customized, short-run print packaging will increase, which will prompt print
packaging companies to adapt to this shift both in terms of technology and efficiency.
Rise of small-batch products
Drivers of change: Industry and external
Changing consumer
preferences for smaller-
batch, craft products
Shorter print
packaging runs
Localization
Verticalization
Value-added consultative
services
Market driver
of change
Effect on
print packaging
Print packaging
industry response
Not only are smaller, local
companies multiplying, but
manufacturers in general are also
introducing a wider variety of
products.
Companies are producing several
different types and variations of the
same product, which also require
shorter print packaging runs.
People are
consuming more
craft products whose
print packaging come
from shorter runs,
where digital printing
is increasingly the
preferred printing
method.
47 47
Consumers, particularly in developed markets, are shifting away from commoditized, homogenous
tastes. This presents an opportunity, because packaging can produce product differentiation.
Product differentiation
Drivers of change: Industry and external
Consumers are rebelling against traditional, marketing-
led consumerism and are seeking more product
differentiation. There remains significant demand for
homogeneity, but there is movement toward market
fragmentation, shorter runs and a polarization of
consumers.
This shift in consumer behavior is particularly evident in
the mature, developed markets.
There is value for companies willing to enter the
rediscovery stage by differentiating their product
because consumers are willing to pay a premium for it.
This trends presents great opportunity for the print
packaging industry.
While packaging was traditionally viewed as functional,
packaging can change the perception of a product
and drive pricing. Packaging presents an opportunity to
create significant value for consumer packaged goods,
through innovations and design advances that help to
differentiate brands and boost sales, as it
communicates with the consumer at the point of sale.
Print packaging companies that are able to offer end-to-
end solutions for clients, integrated into the strategy
design and product marketing stage of the value-chain,
will be well-placed to benefit from this trend.
The J-curve describes how industries move from artisan, to mass
production, to homogeneity and finally to rediscovery in which
consumers value choice and quality over low prices.
Demand in the first three stages is influenced by economic
performance, demographic breakdown, and industry and trade
dynamics. During the homogeneity stage, cost/price is minimized, but
consumers are unsatisfied with a generic product. The rediscovery
stage occurs when consumers seek variety and premium products.
Pri
ce
Time
Artisan stage
Product made and sold
locally in small “factories”
(e.g., a bakery).
Mass production stage
Industry manufacturing
and national supply chain
leads to economies of
scale, driving higher
quality and lower
consumer prices.
Homogeneity stage
Maximum efficiency,
but also maximum
boredom—limited
choice. Consumers
get restless.
Rediscovery stage
Consumers demand more
choice and premium
products and are willing to
pay for them.
Rediscover artisanship
Services combined
with products
Quality over price
Democratization of
luxury
48 48
Packaging defines experience and enabling product pricing. Packaging can drive value and pricing
through two key avenues: existing experiences and new experiences.
Product differentiation
Drivers of change: Industry and external
Existing New Experience
Revenue / Profit Low High
Brand competitive strategies
(Protect, Improve, Enable, Change)
driven through packaging design
Existing experiences are where the customer is familiar
with the product and its use. Packaging can be used to
protect the product at the lowest cost by improving the
experience. This typically does little to increase pricing.
New experiences are where the customer is unfamiliar
with the product or has a new use for it. Advances in
packaging design allow customers to use the product in a
new way by changing the frame of reference. A
successful example is Coca-Cola’s use of packaging to
drive value for its main product, Coke. Coca-Cola went
even further, as it made packaging more personal with
names on its labels and cans in its “Share a Coke”
campaign.
Packaging is an avenue for not only driving price, but also
changing the customer’s perception of the product.
Some formats carry conceptual baggage that is difficult
for consumers to overcome.
For example, a study conducted by Campbell’s packaging
department found that consumers perceived a product
packaged in a can to taste worse than the same product
packaged in glass.
There is an opportunity for printers to develop an
expertise in packaging solutions for consumer packaged
goods due to the lack of existing knowledge in the
industry.
Drivers of change:
Macroeconomic and demographic
50 50
Macroeconomic and demographic drivers underpin the outlook for the print packaging market in all
countries in this study.
Macroeconomic and demographic drivers
Drivers of change: Macroeconomic and demographic
Asia-Pacific is the economic success story, driven by India, Indonesia, China and Vietnam. Strong economics and favorable demographics underpin strong growth potential.
The US has continued its recovery; improved confidence is underpinning strong consumption and supporting growth. Europe, however, will maintain its muted recovery with the UK’s Brexit vote contributing to uncertainty and fragility.
Economic growth
Today, more people live in cities (54%) than in rural areas, and this will grow to 66% by 2050.
Urban dwellers have readier access to goods, and consume more print packaging than rural populations, and it is expected for this trend to accelerate as incomes rise.
Urbanization
The rise of the middle class in emerging markets, owing to rising incomes, will boost consumer expenditures, with print packaging standing as one of the big winners of this trend.
In developed markets, consumer expenditures will still grow, albeit at a slower pace.
Rising middle class
Protectionism is a growing concern around the world. The outlook for major trade deals, like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), is less positive than earlier in 2016.
Nevertheless, trade flows will remain steady, supporting in particular the corrugated packaging market.
Global trade flows
In 2011-15, the US dollar appreciated strongly against most other currencies in the world, on the back of a stronger US economy, the prospect of higher interest rates against monetary loosening in other developed markets, and the softening of rapid growth in some major emerging markets.
The commodity price bust has also impacted currencies, in particular major commodity exporters like Australia and some emerging markets.
Exchange rates
51 51
Economic growth underpins growth of the print packaging industry across all countries. Emerging
markets face a more positive economic growth outlook than developed markets.
Economic growth
Drivers of change: Macroeconomic and demographic
In developed markets, economic growth and print
packaging growth tend to move hand-in-hand as
more mature markets have less space to grow.
In emerging markets, print packaging growth
outpaces growth in the broader economy, as
economic development drives the expansion of the
middle class and a shift in preferences towards pre-
packaged foods and consumer goods, as a matter
of convenience.
In developed markets, the recession caused a
slowdown in purchases of consumer goods, with
customers switching to store-brand goods or cutting
expenses back altogether. Since this time,
developed markets have continued their muted
recovery; 2015 marked the first year since 2010
that the US, EU and Japan all experienced positive
economic growth at the same time. But the
economic growth outlook remains moderate.
The outlook for emerging markets is more
positive; the clouds that threatened to gather in
2015 and harm emerging markets have dissipated
as expectations of a US monetary tightening have
diminished and the US dollar’s rise has fallen.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Developed markets Emerging markets Overall average
Note: Dashed lines indicate forecasts. Developed and Emerging Markets growth are
for the 26 countries included in this study. Overall average is the average of all 26
countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Real GDP per head growth in 2011-2020
52 52
City living tends to lead to higher
consumption, with city economies based
on services (and manufacturing) rather than
agriculture, and with readier access to
shops and packaged goods. As
urbanization of emerging markets grow
from 51.5% in 2015 to 55.7% in 2020,
consumption will increase and in turn print
packaging will grow.
In China alone, urbanization of its
population will increase from 56% in
2015 to 65% in 2020, a nine percentage
point increase or 133.8m new city-dwellers.
On the other hand, growth of cities in
developed markets is stalling. While
population growth is lower, cities have
become overcrowded and people prefer to
live in the outskirts of cities and suburbs.
While emerging markets’ urban population
is expected to grow at an annual average
rate of 2.5% between 2015 and 2020, in
developed markets, the growth rate is at a
tepid 0.8%.
Urbanization is a key driver of growth in demand for print packaging products. Emerging markets
continue to experience more rapid urbanization rates than the developed, mature economies.
Urbanization
Drivers of change: Macroeconomic and demographic
2.1 2.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
2015 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Urban population Population
Source: EIU.
Urbanization in emerging markets in 2015 and 2020
4.1 4.3
CAGR
2.5%
55.7% 51.5%
719 749
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2015 2020
Mil
lio
ns
Urban population Population
Source: EIU.
Urbanization in developed markets in 2015 and 2020
884 904 CAGR
0.8%
82.8% 81.4%
53 53
Between 2015 and 2020,
emerging countries in total
will add 225m households
into the middle-income
bracket ($5,000–$50,000 pa).
This translates to more
consumers with more
purchasing power to spend on
consumer goods, with positive
implications for the print
packaging industry.
Developed countries, on the
other hand will decrease the
number of households in the
middle-income bracket, but will
lift 34m households into the
high-income bracket (earning
more than $50,000 pa), with
implications for the types of
higher-end products and goods
(and packaging) demanded in
those markets.
Consumer behaviors change as disposable incomes increase. The rise of the middle class in
emerging markets will translate into more consumers and growth for the print packaging industry.
Rising middle class
Drivers of change: Macroeconomic and demographic
Households in developed and—to some extent—emerging markets are also shrinking, as families choose to have
less children. Smaller households could translate to more product differentiation within a family’s consumption basket,
in order to accommodate everyone’s preferences, tastes and habits.
225,772
588,845
214,161
95,577
17,477
11,377
354,770
497,888
145,577
60,565
11,081
6,600
0 200,000 400,000 600,000
< US$5,000
US$5,000 – US$15,000
US$15,000 – US$25,000
US$25,000 – US$50,000
US$50,000 – US$75,000
> US$75,000
2015 2020
Source: EIU.
Number of households by income
range in emerging markets in 2015
and 2020 ('000s)
1,060
21,524
36,786
112,923
82,438
123,425
1,510
27,046
40,239
118,858
74,206
102,553
0 50,000 100,000 150,000
< US$5,000
US$5,000 – US$15,000
US$15,000 – US$25,000
US$25,000 – US$50,000
US$50,000 – US$75,000
> US$75,000
2015 2020
Source: EIU.
Number of households by income
range in developed markets in 2015
and 2020 ('000s)
54 54
Global trade supports a robust consumer and packaged goods market, underpinning demand for print
packaging. After several years of strong trade flow growth, the outlook is steady though moderate.
Global trade flows
Drivers of change: Macroeconomic and demographic
Changing international trade patterns will continue to
transform the global economy. High-growth markets,
particularly in Asia-Pacific, continue to have the fastest
growing exports. Strong global trade and export flows
support robust print packaging demand, in particular in the
corrugated segment.
After several strong years of growth in goods trade globally
(annual growth averaging over 4%), the trade outlook has
moderated. Growth in global goods trade flows is expected
to average around 2% per year to 2020.
Growing discontent with the consequences of globalization
and free trade in OECD countries has fueled populist
politicians, boosting protectionist rhetoric and policies.
In the face of these headwinds, and following the UK
referendum result, it will prove difficult to ratify trade
agreements. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership (TTIP) is likely to be delayed until after the
2016-2020 forecast period, and other trade agreements will
also face delays.
EU economic sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine
conflict has hurt trade in Central & Eastern Europe. Russia
instead is turning to strengthening commercial ties with East
Asia.
Nevertheless, trade flows will remain steady, supporting in
particular the corrugated package market.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Developed markets Emerging markets
Overall average
Trade in goods in 2011-2020 (% annual change)
Note: Dashed line indicate forecasts.
Source: EIU.
55 55
In 2011-15, most currencies weakened strongly vis-à-
vis the US dollar, owing to low commodity prices, political
uncertainty and instability, and fiscal and debt crises.
More recently, the expected monetary tightening of the
US Federal Reserve has compounded on the
strengthening of the dollar as the US economy picks up
after years of slow growth. While tightening expectations
have eased somewhat in the wake of the Brexit vote, the
Federal Reserve will likely resume rate rises in 2017, with
potential implications for emerging market currencies and
therefore print packaging growth.
China’s yuan is slowly becoming a more internationalized
currency, with the government opening bond markets to
foreign institutions and shifting to a slightly more market-
oriented exchange rate. In October 2016, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) added the yuan to the basket of
currencies that form the Special Drawing Right currency
basket, a unit of account, an important stepping stone that
signals the growing influence of the country on the
international financial stage.
A significant amount of print packaging is geared towards
the internal market, though there is some print packaging
that is exported, and corrugated is a segment that is
particularly impacted by external forces.
Besides impacting our US$-term print packaging estimates and forecasts, the weakening of global
currencies around the dollar has influence on trade flows and output of highly integrated economies.
Exchange rates
Drivers of change: Macroeconomic and demographic
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EUR CNY INR
MXP BRL COP
Note: Dashed lines indicate forecasts.
Source: EIU.
Exchange rate growth of select currencies to the US
dollar in 2011-2020 (index 2011 = 100)
Recommendations
57 57
The EIU identified four overarching recommendations for print packagers, converters,
brand owners and input manufacturers (equipment, inks and substrates).
Recommendations
Recommendations
Invest in key
country markets
Seek value along
the supply chain
Stay ahead on
green packaging
Keep up with
trends and
technologies
Add consulting to the menu of products and services.
Continue development of machine-to-machine technologies.
Lightweighting of packages makes them cheaper to ship and manufacture.
Create internal regulatory and quality assurance teams to monitor their product.
Customized and short-run print packaging is on the rise, and print packagers will be using more digital print packaging going forward.
Adopt more smart packaging for your products.
While developed markets are stable and will continue to play
a big part in the industry, emerging markets are where
growth will be concentrated in the 2016–20 period.
Emerging markets will add $24bn of the $44bn additional
revenue to print packaging between 2015 and 2020.
Consumers are not only
looking for a recyclable product
and package, but a reduced
footprint over its entire
production.
Governments will strengthen
environmentally friendly
packaging regulations,
bolstering growth of green
packaging globally.
58 58
The identification of key country markets ripe for investment depends on the priorities and regional focus of the
investor. The EIU identified below the top four country markets in our study and how they rank among their group
(emerging and developed markets) and across different criteria.
Invest in key country markets
Recommendations
Do
lla
r g
row
th
% g
row
th
De
ve
lop
ed
E
me
rgin
g
De
ve
lop
ed
E
me
rgin
g
Growth and
added value
Top markets by percentage
growth (CAGR 2016–20) and
dollar growth (US$bn in 2016–20)
in our study
Business
environment
Business Environment Rating by
the EIU of the top emerging and
developed markets in our study
(score 0–10; 10 is best)
Operational
risk
Operational risk scores by the
EIU of the top emerging and
developed markets in our study
(score 0–100; 0 is best)
India (12.4%)
Nigeria (10.5%)
Indonesia (10.2%)
Vietnam (10.1%)
Mexico (8.2)
Chile (7.6)
Brazil (6.1)
Turkey (6.2)
Chile (22)
Saudi Arabia (40)
China (43)
Colombia (43)
China ($15.2bn)
US ($10.7bn)
India ($6.8bn)
Japan ($2.9bn)
US (8.3)
Canada (8.2)
Australia (8.1)
Germany (8.1)
Australia (13)
Canada (15)
Netherlands (19)
US (19)
59 59
Seek value along the supply chain
Recommendations
Print packaging value chain
The design and concept
of a print package
Package reaching
the consumer
Production, printing
and converting
Consulting services Packaging is a strategic tool for brand owners,
because it is the first point of contact with the
consumer.
Brand owners need support in designing and
conceptualizing how their product will be presented
to the consumer.
While there are specialized consulting companies,
print packagers can enter this space by providing
consulting services, as they already have the
expertise to support brand owners early in the value
chain.
Machine-to-machine and IoT Machine-to-machine communication and other
Internet of Things (IoT) solutions will allow for higher
productivity and faster turnaround of printed
products.
While this technology is still under development by
equipment manufacturers, its potential of
streamlining the printing and converting process can
disrupt the industry, and companies must be at the
forefront of this trend.
60 60
Seek value along the supply chain
Recommendations
Print packaging value chain
The design and concept
of a print package
Package reaching
the consumer
Lightweighting Aiming not to compromise the package’s strength and
durability, lightweighting reduces the material used on a
package.
Brand owners can market their products as being more
environmentally friendly.
Print packagers and substrate producers use less
material, reducing costs.
Distributors can ship packaged goods in higher
volumes at lower costs, since they take up less space
and are lighter.
Quality assurance In 2005, Nestlé recalled 30m liters of its baby formula
because traces of isopropyl thioxanthone (a photoinitiator from printing inks) were found in the product, as it migrated through the cartons and tainted the product. This incidence instigated a series of regulations around print packaging and inks.
More monitoring and accountability is needed throughout the supply chain. This is an opportunity for print packagers and converters to step up and own this part of the supply chain and create internal regulatory and quality assurance teams to monitor their products.
Production, printing
and converting
61 61
As consumers and markets become more sophisticated and wealthier, the
demand for more product differentiation and customization increases.
This in turn increases the demand for short runs in print packaging, which
is the niche of digital printing. Brand owners can use digital printing to
target consumers by their location (e.g., locally grown produce), their
mood (e.g., Snickers’ “Hunger Bars” campaign), and even their names
(e.g., Coca Cola’s “Share a Coke” campaign).
The next step for the industry is the further advancement and
popularization of digital printing in other segments, such as flexible,
folding carton and corrugated print packaging. While digital printing for
flexible and folding carton is ahead, corrugated digital printing is still
nascent and sparsely used. Equipment manufacturers should continue
advancing the technology for corrugated, flexible and folding carton digital
printing, making them more efficient and affordable.
Smart packaging is the next step for the print packaging industry, as it
can ensure quality by preserving the product better or it can increase
transparency by conveying extra information to the consumer. Brand
owners should be prepared to incorporate the next generation of
smart packaging into the consumer experience and print packagers
should expand their portfolios to offer the latest smart packaging.
Smart packaging can come in the form of labels that let consumers know
whether the product has been exposed to a harmful environment, or
packaging materials that slowly release chemicals preserving the product
and extending its shelf life, or packages that connect to the cloud, storing
information and communicating between the product and the
manufacturer. New applications are constantly being developed, so the
industry must be up to speed on this technology.
Keep up with trends and technologies
Recommendations
62 62
Many brand owners, printers and converters are already ahead of regulation when it comes to environmentally friendly
practices. The trend is for governments and their agencies to strengthen environmentally friendly packaging regulations.
Print packagers should stay ahead of the curve, as consumers are increasingly demanding more environmentally
friendly packaging. Furthermore, green packaging could cut costs as it aims to reduce weight, therefore using less
material and making it cheaper to transport.
Stay ahead on green packaging
Recommendations
Consumers are not only looking
for a recyclable product and
package, but a reduced
footprint over its entire
production.
Packaging paradox:
Packaging is perceived as both
a positive and negative in the
supply chain. While packaging
protects the goods and
products that that consumers
need and want, it can also be
harmful due to the materials
and waste it produces.
Governments and their
agencies will strengthen
environmentally friendly
packaging regulations,
bolstering growth of green
packaging globally.
Regulations and definitions
concerning green packaging
differ across countries and
countries have been going
green at different paces.
Companies are creating ways
to reduce package weights
(i.e., lightweighting) without
compromising the strength and
durability of the package,
thereby reducing waste and
costs.
Printers and converters are
incorporating these trends into
their business models by
designing packages with strong
focus on sustainability, from
sourcing of materials to the end
of life of the package and
recycling.
Changing demand Changing
regulations
Changing input
supply
Deep dives
64 64
The EIU has examined six markets in more detail, representing a selection of large and
high potential markets across different regions.
Deep dive overview
Deep dive
The largest print
packaging market in the
world will grow steadily in
era of thinning profit
margins and consolidation.
US
The Mexican economy
and print packaging
market will grow at a
healthy rate, despite being
strongly tied to the US.
Mexico
Growth will be muted in
Germany owing to the
already developed market
and uncertainties around
the EU Brexit vote.
Germany
The fastest-growing print
packaging market in our study
gained 3 positions since 2011
from 8th to 5th largest in 2016.
India
The second
largest market in our study will
grow strongly over 2016-20 and
narrow the gap with the US.
China
Indonesia, like India, is a high
growth and high potential market.
Indonesia
United States
Deep dive
66 66
The US print packaging industry
is being driven by a stable US
economy and increasing
disposable incomes. In 2015,
US print packaging companies
generated $76bn, up from $69bn
in 2011.
The US is currently the largest
print packaging market in our
study. It will keep its leading
position in 2020, but China
quickly narrowing the gap.
Besides facing demographic
changes in the transition from
baby boomers to millennials,
companies seeking stable growth
are adapting to changes in
consumer demand, raw material
costs passed down the supply
chain, global economics, and
safety/environmental concerns,
among other external influences.
Adaptation to these changes will
separate winners from losers.
With consolidation and thinning profit margins, the US print packaging industry is forecast to grow at a
steady but moderate 2.6% average annual rate over the next five years.
US: Overall and key takeaways
Deep dive: US
24 27
10 11
11
12
28
29
6
7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2016 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other
Print packaging market by segment in the
US in 2016 and 2020 (US$)
Source: EIU.
78 87
CAGR
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
1.7%
2.4%
3.8%
3.4%
2.6%
2.6%
1.7%
2.4%
3.7%
3.3%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth in the US
Note: Figures presented are compound annual
growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
67 67
US: Current dynamics and trends
Deep dive: US
US
macroeconomic indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population (m) 321.3 323.9 326.5 329.3 332.0 334.6
GDP (% real change pa) 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.3 1.1 2.1
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 0.1 1.3 2.2 2.3 1.3 1.7
Private consumption per head (US$) 38,190 39,420 40,950 42,410 43,040 44,460
Source: EIU.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other US growth (%) North America growth (%)
Print packaging market size by segment in the US in 2011-2020 (US$)
Forecast
Note: Regional and all countries growth is a simple average of growth rates.
Source: EIU.
68 68
US: Forecast dynamics and outlook
Deep dive: US
US consumers are buying from a wider variety of brands and are focusing more on health and wellness,
according to interviews with industry experts. For the print packaging market, this translates into a shift towards
shorter runs of labels & tags and flexible printing. Labels & tags will benefit from the continued rise of small-
batch beverages (e.g., craft beers and cold-pressed juices) and will be the fastest-growing segment in the US at
3.8% in 2016–20. Flexible packaging, which is being increasingly used for a wider variety of applications (e.g.,
baby food and cereal), will be the second-fastest segment and grow 3.4% in 2016–20.
Folding carton print packaging growth is expected to be muted as consumer preferences shift towards flexible
packaging solutions over the next five years.
The corrugated print packaging segment forecasts show the largest revenues at $29.5bn in 2020, maintaining its
position as the largest sales volume generator of the print packaging segments.
US total print packaging revenues are forecast to reach US$87bn by 2020, growing at an average
annual rate of 2.6%, exceeding real GDP growth since 2011.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other
Segment growth in the US in 2012-2020
Note: Growth in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast US business cycle
recession Other 7.5%
Corrugated 34.0%
Folding carton 13.8%
Labels & tags
13.2%
Flexible 31.5%
US print packaging segments market share in 2020
Source: EIU.
69 69
Print packaging in the US is generally a very narrow-margin industry, so consolidation is the preferred
way for large printers and converters to grow.
US: Print packaging highlights
Deep dive: US
Consolidation in the US market is high, with large mature US
companies purchasing smaller operations to meet localized
demand, expand market share and increase profits, as the
industry generally enjoys very narrow margins and consolidation
is the preferred source of growth of larger companies.
Fewer consumers are buying from one or two dominant brands
today, creating demand for numerous, shorter print runs with
better graphics—an area where digital presses will be
considered the best-suited technology. The US is leading the
digital revolution as new print technologies allow for economic
and time savings for printers and converters, and in turn
manufacturers.
Sustainability standards around packaging materials are
driving companies towards low-cost materials and better
efficiencies to maintain already thinning profit margins.
Lightweighting of products, e.g. PET bottles, packaging
variation, and intelligent packaging applications, allowing for
temperature control and added security features, are driving
growth in the US print packaging market.
There is an increasing demand for luxury packaging and eco-
packaging solutions as income growth and real personal
disposable income reaches its highest rate in the US in five
years in 2015.
Based on US income distribution,
consumers will retain a preference for mixing
selected high-end consumer goods purchases
with many cheap or own-brand goods.
0 50,000 100,000
< US$5,000
US$5,000 – US$15,000
US$15,000 – US$25,000
US$25,000 – US$50,000
US$50,000 – US$75,000
> US$75,000
2016 2020
Number of households by income range in the
US in 2016 and 2020 ('000s)
Source: EIU.
70 70
US: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: US
Second-strongest growth of all four
segments due to solid consumer
expenditure growth in 2016–20
and the increasing variety of new
flexible packaging applications
in the food and beverage space,
from baby food to condiment stand-
up pouches.
Intelligent packaging and
security applications, which are
generally technologies applied on
flexible packaging, will also lift
growth of flexible packaging in
2016–20.
Strong growth owing to the rise of
digital printing and the increasing
demand for shorter printing runs
for small-batch and varied
products.
However, millennials are highly
educated, health conscious and
have easy access to fresh produce,
demanding products that stray
from traditional consumer
packaged goods that use in-mold
glue-applied or transfer labels as
print packaging substrates, which
could mute labels & tags growth.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible growth Total growth GDP (% real change pa)
Flexible
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Labels & tags growth Total growth GDP (% real change pa)
Labels & tags
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 3.8%
71 71
US: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: US
In spite of being a saturated
market, corrugated will continue
to grow at a moderate pace as
e-commerce gains ground
owing to increasing accessibility
through mobile devices,
competitive prices and fast
shipping.
Corrugated is traditionally a
lower value-added segment,
but it is innovating and using
new technologies, such as
printing QR codes on consumer
boxes.
Moderate growth is projected,
driven by retail sales growth and
real GDP, which are growing
2.4% and 1.9% on average in
2016–20, respectively.
Flexible packaging offers a
substitute but folding carton
showcases better sustainability
and recycling standards with
paperboard.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Folding carton growth Total growth Retail sales growth (% pa)
Folding carton
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 2.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Corrugated growth Total growth Retail sales growth (% pa)
Corrugated
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 1.7%
China
Deep dive
73 73
The print packaging industry in
China grew at a 7.9% annual
rate in local currency terms in
2011-2015, a rapid pace
particularly given its large market
size of $69bn. Growth is
expected to moderate to a still-
strong rate of 5.9% per year over
2016-2020 (in local currency
terms).
China’s corrugated print
packaging segment is the
largest in the world partly
because of its export-dominated
economy. Corrugated accounts
for $29bn of the print packaging
total revenue in 2016. By 2020,
this number will grow to $35 bn.
The rising middle class will
continue to support China’s
consumer market. Print
packaging growth, however, will
slow down as manufacturing
moves to cheaper labor markets
in South-East Asia.
The second largest market in our study will grow strongly over 2016-20 and narrow the gap with the
US, the largest print packaging market.
China: Overall and key takeaways
Deep dive: China
5.9%
5.9%
5.8%
5.4%
6.4%
6.4%
7.9%
7.9%
7.4%
7.9%
8.6%
8.9%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in China
Note: Figures presented are compound annual
growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
12.3 15.3
7.4 9.2
15.0
18.0
28.7
35.0
5.2
6.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2016 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other
Print packaging market by segment
in China in 2016 and 2020 (US$)
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
68.5 83.8
CAGR
5.2%
74 74
China: Current dynamics and trends
Deep dive: China
China
macroeconomic indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population (m) 1,361.0 1,366.0 1,371.0 1,375.0 1,379.0 1,382.0
GDP (% real change pa) 6.9 6.6 6.0 4.8 4.4 4.2
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.0 2.4
Private consumption per head (US$) 3,130 3,190 3,320 3,490 3,790 4,210
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 6.23 6.65 6.93 7.10 7.04 6.84
Source: EIU.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated
Other China growth (%) Asia-Pacific growth (%)
Forecast
Note: Regional and all countries growth is a simple average of growth rates.
Source: EIU.
Print packaging market size by segment in China in 2011-2020 (in Chinese yuan)
75 75
Private consumption remains the strongest driver of the economy, despite a cooling in activity since 2015. In the
long term, the outlook for the print packaging industry remains relatively bright, despite the expected
slowdown in economic growth.
Manufacturing, including print packaging, is shifting away from China and moving to cheaper markets in
South-East Asia, such as Vietnam. China has achieved rapid economic growth through its large and cheap labor
market to produce packaged consumables, like toys (tied to folding carton and flexible), clothing (labels & tags) and
electronics (corrugated).
However, rising wages and input costs, as well as more complex value chains, have undercut the
competitiveness of the country's manufacturing sector. While it will continue to be a major manufacturing hub,
growth will slow down in 2016-20, which will reflect on the print packaging industry.
China’s market will continue to grow strongly, though the pace will moderate as the market matures.
The shifting global manufacturing supply-chain is also affecting China’s print packaging market.
China: Forecast dynamics and outlook
Deep dive: China
Other 7.5%
Corrugated 41.8%
Folding carton 21.5%
Labels & tags
10.9%
Flexible 18.3%
China print packaging segments market share
in 2020
Source: EIU.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other
Segment growth in China in 2012-2020
Note: Growth in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
76 76
Even though it is the second largest market in this study,
according to experts, the print packaging industry in China is
antiquated, as a lot of the machinery used there is old (about
10-20 years old). This means that the Chinese print packaging
industry cannot keep up with the quality of printing that is going
in the world. This is particularly true for corrugated machinery.
Folding carton machinery in China are relatively more modern,
since folding carton is very closely related to goods like toys, and
electric appliances which are exported to more sophisticated
markets. Therefore, there is a greater push for folding carton
to keep up with the print packaging trends, technologies and
demand.
Furthermore, folding carton is also associated with the
production of luxury goods and cigarettes, both of which are
huge in China. However, while luxury goods are expected to
continue growing strongly, cigarette sales could be taking a
turn. In 2015, China saw a decline in volume sales for the first
time since 1995.
China is already the world's largest e-commerce market,
which is reflected by the large corrugated segment. In 2015
online shopping accounted for 12.9% of total consumer goods
retail sales. In the first five months of 2016 online sales slowed,
but growth still remained impressive at above 25%.
With the exception of folding carton, China tends to lag other countries in terms of innovation and
early adoption of new print packaging technologies.
China: Print packaging highlights
Deep dive: China
0 100,000 200,000 300,000
< US$5,000
US$5,000 – US$15,000
US$15,000 – US$25,000
US$25,000 – US$50,000
US$50,000 – US$75,000
> US$75,000
2016 2020
Number of households by income range in
China in 2016 and 2020 ('000s)
Source: EIU.
The growth of the middle-class in China
will remain strong, but it will slowdown as it
reaches new highs. The number of
households earning more than $15,000 pa will
increase to 170m in 2020, from 115.2m in
2016.
77 77
China: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: China
Unlike other emerging markets
where flexible is the largest
segment, in China flexible is only
the third largest segment.
In 2016-20 the flexible segment will
grow strongly as manufacturers
increasingly prefer flexible over
folding carton, as it uses less
material and are cheaper to
transport. However, it will not
narrow its gap to folding carton.
Many personal and home care
products (such as toothpaste and
detergents) are shifting
packaging vessels from flexible
to PET bottles, which use labels &
tags.
The shift of manufacturing away
from China to other cheaper labor
markets in South-East Asia will
affect labels & tags, as clothing and
textiles, which are tied to labels &
tags, are the most likely industry to
move to those countries.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible growth Total growth Private consumption (% real change pa)
Flexible
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 6.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Labels & tags growth Total growth Private consumption (% real change pa)
Labels & tags
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 6.4%
78 78
China: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: China
Folding carton is a popular
packaging vessel in China largely
because it is associated with luxury
goods and cigarettes, both of which
are huge markets.
Luxury goods will continue to grow
as the income in China increases.
However, cigarettes will face
challenges in the coming years. For
the first time since 1995, sales of
cigarettes fell in China, signaling a
more health-conscious
consumer.
China’s corrugated segment is the
world’s largest, a reflection of its
export-oriented economy.
China is a very large and
fragmented corrugated market
with 4,000-6,000 converters,
according expert estimates.
Corrugated growth will remain
stable in 2016-20. While some
manufacturing will move to other
countries, e-commerce is growing
strongly owing to increasing
internet penetration and
urbanization.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Corrugated growth Total growth GDP (% real change pa)
Corrugated
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 5.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Folding carton growth Total growth Retail sales growth (% pa)
Folding carton
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 5.4%
Germany
Deep dive
80 80
Following a period of weakness,
the print packaging market grew
in 2014 and firmed notably in
2015, with revenues rising by
2.7% in euro terms. Germany’s
print packaging industry
remains healthy and will grow
2.4% annually in 2016–20 (in
local currency terms).
Germany is currently the fourth-
largest print packaging market
in our study. By 2020, Germany
will drop to fifth position, behind
India.
Corrugated is Germany’s
largest segment, accounting for
35% of the print packaging
market. It is not, however, the
slowest growing. Labels & tags,
the smallest and slowest
segment, will pick up its pace to
2% per year in 2016–20, but still
behind corrugated, which is
growing at a 2.1% annual pace.
The outlook for the print packaging market in Germany is for steady, though moderate growth. The
market is mature and the domestic economy faces challenges from stagnant growth in many other
major EU countries, due to the high level of integration of the German economy with the rest of Europe.
Germany: Overall and key takeaways
Deep dive: Germany
3.6 4.2
1.4 1.6
4.7
5.5
5.3
6.1 0.4
0.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2016 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other
Print packaging market by segment in
Germany in 2016 and 2020 (US$)
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
15
18
CAGR
3.8%
2.4%
3.2%
2.1%
2.6%
2.0%
2.7%
1.4%
1.4%
0.8%
1.6%
0.6%
2.3%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Germany
Note: Figures presented are compound annual
growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
81 81
Germany: Current dynamics and trends
Deep dive: Germany
Germany
macroeconomic indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population (m) 81.9 82.3 82.5 82.6 82.6 82.6
GDP (% real change pa) 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.7
Private consumption per head (US$) 22,160 22,010 22,340 23,800 24,780 25,710
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.90 0.88 0.87
Source: EIU.
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other Germany growth (%)
Western Europe growth (%)
Forecast
Note: Regional and all countries growth is a simple average of growth rates.
Source: EIU.
Print packaging market size by segment in Germany in 2011-2020 (in euros)
82 82
Print packaging growth will remain stable over 2016–20, owing to modest retail sales as pent-up demand fades,
real disposable income growth eases and second-round effects related to Brexit uncertainty exert a modest
dampening effect on broader regional sentiment within the EU.
Since the recession, German consumers have generally become more frugal, softening spending on “non-
essentials”, such as clothing and electronics, which are tied to labels & tags and corrugated, respectively. On the other
hand, growth of food, beverages and tobacco, which are related to folding carton and flexible, is solid and will grow at
an annual average rate of 2.8% in 2016–20, in line with growth of folding carton and flexible.
Consumers in developed markets such as Germany desire more product variety, which translates into a wider
product line for manufacturers and shorter runs for print packaging converters. Flexible will be growing the fastest
owing to cheaper materials and ease of transport, which is important in the EU, where cross-country trade is common.
Since the financial crisis, German consumers have become increasingly frugal and austere, and
there are few signs of these habits waning.
Germany: Forecast dynamics and outlook
Deep dive: Germany
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other
Segment growth in Germany in 2012-2020
Note: Growth in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast Other 3.0%
Corrugated 34.1%
Folding carton 30.6%
Labels & tags 8.7%
Flexible 23.6%
Germany print packaging segments market share in
2020
Source: EIU.
83 83
The developed market in Germany results in high competition
not only among companies, but also between types of
packaging, as products must be at the edge of consumer
preferences and companies must be at the edge of innovation.
Sustainability, recyclability and green packaging have gained
space in consumer packaging. Flexible and folding carton are the
segments that are best set to gain from this trend.
Due to the economic integration of the EU, the print packaging
industry is spread out in the continent, with German
companies and converters opening and maintaining plants in
neighboring countries. According to experts, some German
producers have operations outside of the domestic market to
benefit from EU incentives to build production facilities in Central
& Eastern Europe. Those facilities are often mass producing
goods for the entire EU market.
Print packaging consulting exists in Germany; however, it is a
small market. Most of the consulting come in the form of technical
assistance, design consulting, pre-press services, and packaging
design. Nevertheless, technical schools and universities offer print
and packaging courses, which are increasing.
The German beverage market is dominated by labels & tags, as
there is a container deposit law that more heavily affects
beverage cans (in the others segment) and single-use bottles
compared with recyclable bottles (with labels).
On the supply side, Germany’s print packaging market is structured to take best advantage of EU
integration and free flow of goods and labor. On the demand side, the market is sophisticated, and
sustainability concerns have gained traction.
Germany: Print packaging highlights
Deep dive: Germany
0 10,000 20,000
< US$5,000
US$5,000 – US$15,000
US$15,000 – US$25,000
US$25,000 – US$50,000
US$50,000 – US$75,000
> US$75,000
2016 2020
Number of households by income range in
Germany in 2016 and 2020 ('000s)
Source: EIU.
Income levels will remain relatively high,
but below those in France and the UK. By
2020 around half of households are forecast
to be earning more than $50,000 per year,
with one-third of these earning more than
$75,000.
84 84
Germany: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: Germany
Folding carton will follow flexible
print packaging closely, growing
at a 2.6% annual rate in 2016–20.
Folding carton is a highly
recyclable packaging material,
which is advantageous in an
increasingly environmentally
conscious consumer market where
German consumers are more
focused on decisions that affect
their environmental footprint, health
and safety.
Germany’s flexible print
packaging will be growing at a
healthy and stable 2.7% annual
rate in 2016–20 owing to the
recent recuperation of retail sales
and expectations for it to hold up in
coming years.
Experts point to a growing pre-
packaged food sector as a driver of
flexible packaging growth, as
Germans demand prepared foods
(e.g. frozen meals) as a matter of
convenience.
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible growth Total growth Retail sales (LCU)
Flexible
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 2.7%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Folding carton growth Total growth Retail sales (LCU)
Folding carton
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 2.6%
85 85
Germany: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: Germany
Labels & tags is a mature
consumer market in Germany.
Lifestyle trends and demographic
trends (population aging, higher
immigration and a rising share of
one-person households) will drive
spending patterns in the coming
years.
Germany has traditionally had a
fragmented brewing sector, so
short print packaging runs are the
norm. This characteristic of the
German labels & tags market is
expected to continue.
In spite of the uncertainties around
the EU Brexit vote, trade within
the EU and its partners will
continue, supporting growth of
corrugated print packaging, which
is strongly tied to exports.
Corrugated is also used for
shipments, and e-commerce
continues to grow in Germany. E-
commerce sales rose by 12% in
2015, according to the German
Retail Federation (HDE), which
projects another year of double-
digit growth (11%) in 2016.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Labels & tags growth Total growth Retail sales (LCU)
Labels & tags
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 2.0%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Corrugated growth Total growth Retail sales (LCU)
Corrugated
Stable
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 2.1%
India
Deep dive
87 87
India is the fastest-growing
print packaging market across
all segments, growing on
average 12.1% per year in local
currency terms in 2016-20.
Since 2011, India went from
being the 8th largest print
packaging market to 5th in
2016. It will pass Germany in
2020, and it will be just $557m
behind 3rd-placed Japan.
The flexible print packaging
market in India is much larger
than folding carton. However,
the folding carton segment in
India is still sizable because of
exports, in particular luxury
goods and cigarettes.
According to experts, the fast-
moving consumer goods and
food goods are the sectors that
offer the best opportunities for
print packaging.
India is quickly rising in the ranks of the print packaging industry, going from the 8th largest market in
2011 to 5th in 2016. By 2020 it will become the 4th largest market, passing Germany, and at this rate,
shortly after the 2020 horizon, India will surpass Japan, becoming the 3rd largest market in this study.
India: Overall and key takeaways
Deep dive: India
12.4%
12.4%
12.3%
12.2%
12.6%
12.5%
12.1%
12.2%
11.9%
12.0%
12.1%
12.4%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in India
Note: Figures presented are compound annual
growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
3.7 5.6
1.4
2.2 2.6
3.9 3.6
5.5
0.9
1.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2016 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other
Print packaging market by segment in
India in 2016 and 2020 (US$)
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
12.2
18.6
CAGR
11%
88 88
India: Current dynamics and trends
Deep dive: India
India
macroeconomic indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population (m) 1,311.0 1,327.0 1,343.0 1,358.0 1,374.0 1,389.0
GDP (% real change pa) 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 4.9 5.6 5.7 5.3 4.9 4.9
Private consumption per head (US$) 941 989 1,040 1,140 1,280 1,410
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 64.2 68.4 72.4 73.2 72.3 71.8
Source: EIU.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated
Other India growth (%) Asia-Pacific growth (%)
Print packaging market size by segment in India in 2011-2020 (in Indian rupees) Forecast
Note: Regional and all countries growth is a simple average of growth rates.
Source: EIU.
89 89
The print packaging industry in India will grow strongly over 2016-20, with each component segment growing at
similarly fast paces. The fastest will be labels & tags, which will grow at an annual average rate of 12.6% in 2016-
20; the slowest segment will be corrugated, which will grow at an annual average rate of 12.3% in the period.
India is the 5th largest print packaging market in our study with revenues of $12.2bn in 2016. By 2020, revenues
will reach $18.6bn, just below Japan, the 3rd largest market in our study with $19.1bn in print packaging revenues.
Numerous international food brands are targeting the Indian market, such as Unilever, Nestlé and Pepsi.
Those international companies will bring with them more demand for more sophisticated print packaging, which will
lift revenues for flexible, labels & tags and folding carton.
Indian consumers are not yet as eco-conscious or focused on green packaging as are consumers in mature
markets. However, there is an expectation that these trends will reach India in the forecast period, which will lift
further flexible print packaging revenues.
India is the fastest-growing market for all print packaging segments in this study, and it will continue to
grow strongly in 2016-20.
India: Forecast dynamics and outlook
Deep dive: India
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other
Segment growth in India in 2012-2020
Note: Growth in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast Other 7.4%
Corrugated 29.6%
Folding carton 21.0%
Labels & tags
11.8%
Flexible 30.2%
India print packaging segments market share
in 2020
Source: EIU.
90 90
A challenge for India’s print packaging industry is the rising
labor costs coupled with inflation, which raises costs and could
result in the outsourcing of those print packaging plants to other
cheaper labor markets.
According to experts, manufacturers in India are generally not
very sophisticated when it comes to print packaging and
marketing. Designs are generally provided by brand owners, but
even agencies employed by those brand owners are not very up to
date and innovative. Some print packaging firms employ graphic
designers to design for smaller companies who can not afford
agencies, filling in the gap in the supply chain.
The Indian packaging market is very fragmented, with estimates
reaching 22,000 firms (including print packagers as well as other
firms in the supply chain for packaging). Furthermore, according to
experts, the informal market is large in India. The folding carton
informal print packaging industry could be producing up to 25% of
the market, in the form of candy boxes and shoe boxes.
Rising incomes, urbanization and young people have significant
implications for the print packaging sector, as more fast-moving
consumer goods are sold, lifting folding carton, labels & tags and
flexible print packaging. Furthermore, India’s youthful population is
becoming brand- and fashion-conscious, especially in big cities,
where increasingly affluent households are acquiring a taste for
luxury items. Many global brands are targeting this segment.
India’s fast-changing demographics will be the key driver to watch for the print packaging industry. It
will be underpinning growing print packaging demand for luxury goods, pre-packaged processed
foods and fast-moving consumer goods.
India: Print packaging highlights
Deep dive: India
0 100,000 200,000
< US$5,000
US$5,000 – US$15,000
US$15,000 – US$25,000
US$25,000 – US$50,000
US$50,000 – US$75,000
> US$75,000
2016 2020
Number of households by income range in
India in 2016 and 2020 ('000s)
Source: EIU.
In 2020, about 83m more households will
earn more than $15,000 compared to 2016.
This translates into about 420m new people in
households earning more than $15,000, the
overwhelming majority of whom will be rising
from a lower income bracket.
91 91
India: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: India
Young city-dwellers are
consuming more pre-packaged
processed foods (which come in
flexible and folding carton
packaging) and the expectation is
for this trend to strengthen.
The industry is shifting away from
folding carton and other rigid
packaging to flexible because its
considered more attractive,
cheaper, and easier to transport.
Demand for soft drinks has
traditionally centered on fresh
juices and bottled water (which use
labels print packaging).
Carbonated drinks will become
more popular as innovative
package sizing increases
affordability.
Per-head consumption of alcoholic
drinks is small, but India is the
world’s largest whisky market in
volume terms and will remain a
major global spirits market (which
use labels print packaging).
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible growth Total growth Consumer expenditure: Food, beverages & tobacco
Flexible
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 12.5%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Labels & tags growth Total growth Consumer expenditure: Total
Labels & tags
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 12.6%
92 92
India: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: India
Folding carton will be the slowest
print packaging segment at an
average annual pace of 12.2% in
2016-20.
While the majority of the population
will continue to rely on basic,
unprepared foods, such as cereals,
there is a growing demand for
packaged foods, like ready
meals and canned goods,
especially in urban areas. This
will support growth in the flexible,
labels & tags, and folding carton
print packaging markets.
E-commerce and exports will drive
corrugated print packaging. A US
investment bank, Goldman Sachs,
estimates that Indian e-commerce
is worth $23bn in the year to March
2016, from $11bn in 2015, a
doubling of the market.
Online retail will continue to
grow as urbanization continues
and more people are connected to
the internet.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Folding carton growth Total growth Retail sales (LCU)
Folding carton
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 12.2%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Corrugated growth Total growth Retail sales (LCU)
Corrugated
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 12.3%
Indonesia
Deep dive
94 94
While a smaller market at $1.5bn
in 2015, the Indonesian print
packaging industry is set to
continue expansive growth
underpinned by an expanding
middle class, increasing
consumer demand for household
goods and retail products,
competitive local companies,
and cheaper raw materials.
Following this demographic shift,
flexible and corrugated
packaging revenues made up
roughly two-thirds of total
packaging demand in 2015.
Additionally, Indonesia’s e-
commerce transactions are
expected to grow from US$12bn
in 2014 to US$130bn by 2020,
reflective of growth in a
corrugated segment projected
to grow at a 9.4% clip in the
forecast period.
The Indonesian print packaging industry is projected to be the 3rd fastest growing market at an
average annual rate of 10.1% over the next five years.
Indonesia: Overall and key takeaways
Deep dive: Indonesia
10.2%
10.2%
9.4%
9.6%
10.5%
10.9%
9.5%
9.5%
8.9%
9.0%
9.7%
10.0%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Indonesia
Note: Figures presented are compound annual
growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
488 720
328
478 234
330 472
661
70
101
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2016 2020
Mil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other
Print packaging market by segments in
Indonesia in 2016 and 2020 (US$)
1,591 2,290
CAGR
9.5%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
95 95
Indonesia: Current dynamics and trends
Deep dive: Indonesia
Indonesia
macroeconomic indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population (m) 255.8 258.2 260.6 262.9 265.3 267.5
GDP (% real change pa) 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.1 5.0 4.9
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 6.4 3.8 4.7 5.1 4.7 4.4
Private consumption per head (US$) 1,922 2,080 2,260 2,500 2,770 3,030
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 13,389 13,557 13,785 13,800 13,725 13,875
Source: EIU.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other Indonesia growth (%) Asia-Pacific growth (%)
Print packaging market size by segment in Indonesia in 2011-2020 (in Indonesian rupiahs)
Forecast
Note: Regional and all countries growth is a simple average of growth rates.
Source: EIU.
96 96
Indonesian middle-class consumers, in the wake of rising regional minimum wages and accordingly
purchasing power, are creating significant demand for a flexible packaging industry that makes up 33% of the
total packaging industry in 2020, due to lightweight and lower costs to produce.
Local companies, such as PT Trias Sentosa and Indah Kiat, as well as international companies are battling for a
competitive edge as rising material costs and domestic fuel prices are forcing companies to rethink and innovate to
lower packaging costs and increase revenues. This will continue to affect the folding carton and flexible segments
in particular.
The flexible packaging and labels & tags segments point towards the strongest growth over the forecast period with
average annual growth rates of 10.8% and 10.5% respectively, as demand for higher value-added processed food,
beverages and household goods picks up across primary sales channels.
Indonesian print packaging revenues will reach $2.3bn by 2020, growing at an annual average rate of
9.5% in US dollar terms, more than double the pace of real GDP growth.
Indonesia: Forecast dynamics and outlook
Deep dive: Indonesia
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other
Segment growth in Indonesia in 2012-2020
Note: Growth in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast Other 4.4%
Corrugated 28.9%
Folding carton 14.4%
Labels & tags
20.9%
Flexible 31.4%
Indonesia print packaging segments market share
in 2020
Source: EIU.
97 97
Industry experts point to lower labor costs relative to China and a
motivated workforce as key success factors for multinational
packaging companies (e.g. TetraPak, Amcor) seeking to acquire
market share in the region. For consumers this translates to
increasing packaging variety, including sustainable and
hygienically-packed products.
Rising affluence is expected to drive increased demand for
higher-value packaged goods in all sectors. EIU forecasts that
37% of Indonesian households will earn more than US$10,000
annually by 2020, compared with 19% in 2015, driven by double-
digit annual nominal wage growth.
Improving economic conditions and falling oil prices (fuel
prices were cut from April 2016) will see stronger spending in
2016-20 but still-high inflation is reducing private consumption—
the largest contributor to nominal GDP.
Indonesia’s middle class will be drawn to the convenience and
choice offered by hypermarkets which allow for a plethora of
consumer goods. As Indonesians become richer, the popularity
of modern retail outlets, which currently account for only 30% of
total retail sales, will grow at the expense of informal channels.
Demographic factors—about 28% of the population are under the
age of 15—indicate scope for strong medium- to long-term
growth in consumer spending, especially for discretionary items
such as consumer electronics, a core product of packaged goods.
Both local companies and multinational giants are competing to meet Indonesian consumer demand
using innovative print technologies and packaging design.
Indonesia: Print packaging highlights
Deep dive: Indonesia
0 20,000 40,000 60,000
< US$5,000
US$5,000 – US$15,000
US$15,000 – US$25,000
US$25,000 – US$50,000
US$50,000 – US$75,000
> US$75,000
2016 2020
Number of households by income range in
Indonesia in 2016 and 2020 ('000s)
Source: EIU.
Indonesian income distribution shows strong
demand for high-volume, consumer goods as
wage growth pushes more of the population into
the middle class bracket.
98 98
Indonesia: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: Indonesia
Environmental concerns over paper
and plastic as well as shorter
printing runs have increased
demand for labeled packaged
products. Indonesian consumers’
shopping carts vary in product
types and contain numerous
brands as opposed to only the
big consumer packaged goods.
Labels and tags segment indicates
the second strongest growth of all
four segments.
Strongest segment growth owing to
Indonesia’s private consumption
habits. The food packaging
industry remained the largest
plastics end-user in 2015 in
Indonesia, after enjoying another
year of considerable growth.
The Indonesian plastics industry—
and as a result the supporting end-
use consumer goods industries—
are heavily reliant on raw material
imports, leaving room for local
flexible packaging converters to
gain market share.
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Labels & tags growth Total growth GDP (% real change pa)
Labels & tags
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 10.5%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible growth Total growth Private consumption (% real change pa)
Flexible
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 10.9%
99 99
Indonesia: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: Indonesia
Strong segment growth
projected due to increasing
Internet access and as a result,
growing e-commerce business
with a projected 10m new online
shoppers in 2016.
Many companies are investing
in new corrugated production
machinery to maintain foothold
and utilize efficiencies as
outdated equipment hamper
sales and slow down print
processes.
Like the other segments, the
folding carton and paperboard
packaging segment is growing
almost twice as fast as real GDP
at 9.6% versus 5.1% over the
forecast period.
Folding carton converters will
focus on lower quality, thinner
paper to produce the same
goods in an era of rising
environmental concerns and
increasing raw material costs.
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Folding carton growth Total growth GDP (% real change pa)
Folding carton
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 9.6%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Corrugated growth Total growth GDP (% real change pa)
Corrugated
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 9.4%
Mexico
Deep dive
101 101
The Mexican print packaging
industry is being affected by
thinning profit margins and
packaging-related
regulations, similar to other
developing countries in Latin
America and Asia-Pacific.
Mexican print packaging
companies generated roughly
$2.7bn in 2011 and 2015,
seeing virtually flat growth
owing to the sharp depreciation
of the Mexican peso against the
US dollar in 2015.
The Mexican flexible and
folding carton print
packaging segments are
expected to grow at an
average annual rate of 6.7% in
local currency terms in 2016-20
as consumers seek more
customized packaged products.
Mexico’s print packaging market is forecast to grow at a steady 6% average annual rate over 2016-
20, influenced by rising domestic consumption and middle class growth.
Mexico: Overall and key takeaways
Deep dive: Mexico
0.7 1.0
0.4
0.5 0.5
0.7 0.6
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2016 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other
Print packaging market by segment in
Mexico in 2016 and 2020 (US$)
2.4 3.3
CAGR
8.1%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
6.2%
6.3%
5.4%
6.7%
6.1%
6.7%
5.4%
5.5%
5.1%
5.4%
5.4%
5.7%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Mexico
Note: Figures presented are compound annual
growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
102 102
Mexico: Current dynamics and trends
Deep dive: Mexico
Mexico
macroeconomic indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Population (m) 127.0 128.6 130.2 131.8 133.3 134.8
GDP (% real change pa) 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.0
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4
Private consumption per head (US$) 6,238 5,590 6,180 6,530 6,960 7,450
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 15.8 18.5 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.3
Source: EIU.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other Mexico growth (%) Latin America growth (%)
Print packaging market size by segment in Mexico in 2011-2020 (in Mexican pesos) Forecast
Note: Regional and all countries growth is a simple average of growth rates.
Source: EIU.
103 103
Growth in retail sales, strongly correlated with print packaging products, has been more heavily concentrated on
lower-cost items, with high-ticket purchases remaining relatively weak. A fairly firm forecast of private consumption
growth in 2016-20 (averaging 3% per year) bodes well for the packaging sector.
Simultaneously, Mexican consumers are buying smaller package formats in the wake of high obesity rates and
increasing taxes and regulations on food and beverage introduced by the Mexican government. As such, flexible
and folding carton packaging solutions will increase in total volume, which together make up nearly half of the total
print packaging in Mexico.
Corrugated print packaging segment forecasts show the second-largest revenues at $858m in 2020, continuing
its position as the second-largest sales volume of the print packaging segments. Corrugated print packaging will
continue growing as 24m Mexicans gain access to the Internet between 2016 and 2020.
Mexican print packaging revenues are projected to reach $3.3bn by 2020, growing at an
average annual rate of 6.2% in 2016-20.
Mexico: Forecast dynamics and outlook
Deep dive: Mexico
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton Corrugated Other
Segment growth in Mexico in 2012-2020
Note: Growth in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast Other 4.4%
Corrugated 26.0%
Folding carton 21.6%
Labels & tags
16.4%
Flexible 31.5%
Mexico print packaging segments market share
in 2020
Source: EIU.
104 104
Despite an economic slowdown, tighter fiscal and monetary
conditions, and dissatisfaction over widespread corruption,
Mexicans are on a spending binge that is providing an important
boost to the economy in the absence of support from investment
or public spending. However, the factors supporting this consumer
boom are likely to be temporary.
Flexible packaging companies are acting as innovators to deflect
concerns over harmful packaging materials. In turn, sustainable
packaging solutions made of recycled and biodegradable materials
are being developed as a solution.
Demographic trends and rising income levels will affect food
demand. An increase in the number of single households and of
women working outside the home will continue to spur demand
for prepared foods, and wider use of freezers and microwaves
will prompt a corresponding rise in sales of packaged frozen
foods and ready meals.
Brand owners are working closely with print packaging manufacturers
for full supply-chain solutions. This can be seen especially in
personal care and beauty products as brand owners create new
product lines and want to maintain consistency in brand positioning.
The Mexican retail market is the second-largest in Latin America
after Brazil, with total sales in 2015 of $369bn. Although the
market declined in USD terms since 2014, in peso terms, retail
sales increased by 4.5%, also evidenced by a strong print
packaging market.
Mexican print packaging industry is growing off the back of increasing consumption of packaged food
and household products and convenience for consumers
Mexico: Print packaging highlights
Deep dive: Mexico
0 5,000 10,000
< US$5,000
US$5,000 – US$15,000
US$15,000 – US$25,000
US$25,000 – US$50,000
US$50,000 – US$75,000
> US$75,000
2016 2020
Number of households by income range in
Mexico in 2016 and 2020 ('000s)
Source: EIU.
A growing upper-middle class by 2020 will
allow for a diverse product mix, as consumers
will demand both luxury goods as well as
standard packaged household goods to meet
their consumption needs.
105 105
Mexico: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: Mexico
Similar to flexible packaging,
folding carton packaging offers a
significant growth opportunity as
many middle-class Mexicans are
demanding common consumer
goods such as pharmaceuticals,
pre-packaged meals, and beauty
products.
Grupo Gondi is one of the largest
players in folding carton print
packaging, recently acquiring
Aluprint Plegazidos from
Constantia Flexibles, a large
multinational company, in 2016.
Changing lifestyles, with an
increase in processed foods and
personal care products are driving
stronger growth in the flexible
packaging segment in Mexico. For
smaller household sizes as is the
case in Mexico, flexible packaging
offers the most variety of packaging
sizes (bought in bulk or single-
product) and storage flexibility.
Walmart subsidiary, Walmex, as
well domestic retailers, Soriana and
Chedraui, are the main companies
selling packaged goods.
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible growth Total growth Retail sales growth (% pa)
Flexible
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 6.7%
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Folding carton growth Total growth Retail sales growth (% pa)
Folding carton
Positive
outlook
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 6.7%
106 106
Mexico: Key segment analysis
Deep dive: Mexico
Corrugated print packaging is
growing steadily over 2016-20 as
Mexicans are increasingly getting
on the Internet—e-commerce has
risen sharply to 65m internet users
in 2015.
The online retail market remains
comparatively underdeveloped,
owing to limited supply of online
offerings and a shortage of e-
commerce solutions, leaving a
growth opportunity on the table for
package printers once
infrastructure improves.
As Mexican consumers garner a closer eye towards proper labeling on food and beverage products, demand will shift away from traditional goods and towards smaller-batch products, which closely align with the labels & tags segment.
In August 2016, Chobani, a US-based yogurt company using shrink-sleeve labels, entered its first international market, Mexico, facing sizable demand from a growing middle class and a health-conscious demographic.
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Labels & tags growth Total growth Retail sales growth (% pa)
Labels & tags
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 6.1% Positive
outlook
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Corrugated growth Total growth Retail sales growth (% pa)
Corrugated
Note: Print packaging growth is in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
CAGR 5.4%
Stable
outlook
Appendix: Regional overviews
108 108
Growth will remain stable across all segments, as the
average cumulative annual growth rate in 2016-20 will
remain at the same level as it did in 2011-15.
The EIU expects a mild business cycle recession in
the US in 2019, owing to a softening of domestic
demand as the Fed raises interest rates to fight inflation.
This will dampen consumption, affecting primarily
flexible, labels & tags, and folding carton print packaging.
Online retail sales (closely related to corrugated print
packaging) has been rising strongly over 2011-15 at
an average annual rate of 11.2% and we expect this
trend to continue in 2016-20, reaching a peak of 13.4%
growth in 2018. This will support corrugated in 2016-20.
North America is the second-largest regional print packaging market, accounting for 33% of the total
print packaging market in US$ terms.
North America
Regional profile
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0
20
40
60
80
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other N. America growth (%)
Total growth (%)
Note: North America includes US and Canada. Growth rates are average growth rates in LCU terms.
Total growth corresponds to average growth of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
North America print packaging market by segment
in 2011-2020 (US$)
Other regions,
67%
US 31.9%
Canada 1.0%
North America,
33%
North America print packaging market share in 2016
Note: This chart represents the share of 26 countries that is
covered by this study.
Source: EIU.
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%
2.6%
2.7%
2.9%
US
NorthAmerica
Canada
North America growth by country
2011-15 2016-20
Note: Figures presented are cumulative annual growth rates
for each country in local currency terms. Region growth is
the average cumulative annual growth rates of the countries
in the region.
Source: EIU.
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Nominal GDP (US$ at PPP)
Nominal private consumption (US$)
Total exports fob
Note: North America includes US and Canada.
Source: EIU.
Macro trends in North America
in 2011-2020 (% annual change)
109 109
Rising incomes across the region will continue to lift all
print packaging segments, albeit at a slower rate.
Brazil is the only Latin American country that loses
positions in this study’s growth ranking, falling five
positions to 13th fastest-growing print packaging market.
Colombia and Mexico both gain positions in 2016-20,
while Chile remains stable at 12th.
Corrugated will accelerate in Colombia and Mexico, on
the back of weaker local currencies as they support
exports. The weak Brazilian real would help
corrugated, but it will not be sufficient to counteract
the current recession, the political crisis and their
aftermath, which will last until 2017.
Despite annual average growth in 2016-20 being nearly one full percentage point below 2011-15,
Latin America will continue to be the third fastest-growing region in the world.
Latin America
Regional profile
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
2
4
6
8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other Lat. Am. Growth (%)
Total growth (%)
Note: Latin America includes Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico. Growth rates are average growth
rates in LCU terms. Total growth corresponds to average growth of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Latin America print packaging market by segment
in 2011-2020 (US$)
Other regions 97.5% Brazil
1.3%
Chile 0.1%
Colombia 0.1%
Mexico 1.0%
Latin America,
2.5%
Latin America print packaging market share in 2016
Note: This chart represents the share of 26 countries that is
covered by this study.
Source: EIU.
4.6%
5.7%
6.0%
6.2%
7.4%
7.6%
6.8%
6.9%
5.4%
7.8%
Brazil
Chile
LatinAmerica
Mexico
Colombia
Latin America growth by country
2011-15 2016-20
Note: Figures presented are cumulative annual growth
rates for each country in local currency terms. Region
growth is the average cumulative annual growth rates of
the countries in the region.
Source: EIU.
-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%
10%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Nominal GDP (US$ at PPP)
Nominal private consumption (US$)
Total exports fob
Note: Latin America includes Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico.
Source: EIU.
Macro trends in Latin America
in 2011-2020 (% annual change)
110 110
All print packaging segments’ growth have been muted
and even contracting in the earlier years closer to the
global financial crisis of 2007-08, owing to weak
consumption, retail sales and income growth.
The UK will be the only country in our study that will
shrink (a 0.01% contraction in 2017) in the forecast
period. All other Western Europe countries will grow more
strongly, compensating for the UK contraction and lifting
regional growth up to 2% in 2016-20.
Nevertheless, Western Europe is a slow-growing
region. Five out of the bottom eight print packaging
markets are in Western Europe, as it is a developed
market with a slow-growing population.
After a weak 2011-15, Western Europe will recover in 2016-20, but it will continue to be the slowest-
growing region in our study.
Western Europe
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0102030405060
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other W. Europe growth (%)
Total growth (%)
Note: Western Europe includes France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and United Kingdom. Growth
rates are average growth rates in LCU terms. Total growth corresponds to average growth of all 26
countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Western Europe print packaging market by segment
in 2011-2020 (US$)
Other regions 81.1%
France 4.1%
Germ. 6.3%
Italy 3.7%
Neth. 0.5%
UK 4.3%
Western Europe 18.9%
Western Europe print packaging market share in 2016
Note: This chart represents the share of 26 countries that is
covered by this study.
Source: EIU.
1.2%
1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
2.6%
2.4%
1.8%
0.9%
1.0%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
UK
Italy
France
W. Euro.
Neth.
Germany
Western Europe growth by country
2011-15 2016-20Note: Figures presented are cumulative annual growth
rates for each country in local currency terms. Region
growth is the average cumulative annual growth rates of
the countries in the region.
Source: EIU.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Nominal GDP (US$ at PPP)
Nominal private consumption (US$)
Total exports fob
Note: Western Europe includes France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands,
and United Kingdom.
Source: EIU.
Macro trends in Western Europe
in 2011-2020 (% annual change)
Regional profile
111 111
Turkey is the fastest-growing country in the region at the
10th position in our study. Its dynamic population and
proximity to Europe supported and will continue to
support print packaging growth in 2016-20. The same
could be said about Poland, but the EU sanctions
against Russia over Ukraine hurts Polish consumption
and its print packaging market across all segments.
Political uncertainties unveiled by the recent coup
attempt in June 2016 in Turkey as well as increasing
Western tensions with Russia will dampen consumer
confidence, and decelerate consumption and print
packaging growth of all segments in the region.
Central & Eastern Europe is the fifth largest and fifth fastest-growing region in our study. However,
political uncertainties within and across borders will trim growth in 2016-20.
Central & Eastern Europe
Regional profile
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%
0
1
2
3
4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding cartonCorrugated Other C. & E. Europe (%)Total growth (%)
Note: Central & Eastern Europe includes Poland, Russia and Turkey. Growth rates are average growth
rates in LCU terms. Total growth corresponds to average growth of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Central & Eastern Europe print packaging market by segment
in 2011-2020 (US$)
Other regions 98.9% Poland
0.3%
Russia 0.5%
Turkey 0.3%
Central & Eastern Europe 1.1%
Central & Eastern Europe print packaging market share in 2016
Note: This chart represents the share of 26 countries that is
covered by this study.
Source: EIU.
2.5%
2.6%
3.7%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
4.6%
7.8%
Poland
Russia
C. & E.Europe
Turkey
Central & Eastern Europe growth by country
2011-15 2016-20
Note: Figures presented are cumulative annual growth
rates for each country in local currency terms. Region
growth is the average cumulative annual growth rates of
the countries in the region.
Source: EIU.
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Nominal GDP (US$ at PPP)
Nominal private consumption (US$)
Total exports fob
Note: Central & Eastern Europe includes Poland, Russia and Turkey.
Source: EIU.
Macro trends in Central & Eastern Europe
in 2011-2020 (% annual change)
112 112
The market dynamics of Iran and Saudi Arabia will
counteract each other, resulting in similar growth rates
for 2016-20 compared to 2011-15.
Flexible, labels & tags, and folding carton will grow
strongly in Iran owing to the lifting of sanctions and
Western reengagement, as consumption and retail sales
expands due to a rise in disposable incomes. On the
other hand, tepid growth of the same segments in
Saudi Arabia will continue in 2016-20, with higher oil
prices starting only in 2017, picking retail sales up again.
Corrugated will perform better in 2016-20 in the region
as Iran reaps the benefits of the opening of the economy,
with increases in exports and shipments.
The Middle East is a mixed bag and it is in the middle of the pack in terms of growth. As the fifth fastest-
growing market in the world, Iran lifts the region, while Saudi Arabia (14th fastest) holds it back.
Middle East
Regional profile
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Nominal GDP (US$ at PPP)
Nominal private consumption (US$)
Total exports fob
Note: Middle-East includes Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Source: EIU.
Macro trends in Middle East
in 2011-2020 (% annual change)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding carton
Corrugated Other Middle-East growth (%)
Total growth (%)
Note: Middle-East includes Saudi Arabia and Iran. Growth rates are average growth rates in LCU
terms. Total growth corresponds to average growth of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Middle East print packaging market by segment
in 2011-2020 (US$)
Other regions 99.5%
Saudi Arabia 0.4%
Iran 0.1%
Middle East 0.5%
Note: This chart represents the share of 26 countries that is
covered by this study.
Source: EIU.
Middle East print packaging market
share in 2016
4.0%
6.3%
8.5%
4.0%
5.8%
7.5%
SaudiArabia
Middle-East
Iran
2011-15 2016-20Note: Figures presented are cumulative annual growth
rates for each country in local currency terms. Region
growth is the average cumulative annual growth rates of
the countries in the region.
Source: EIU.
Middle East growth by country
113 113
Both African countries are among the top ten fastest
markets: Nigeria in second and South Africa in sixth. The
fast growing population, particularly in Nigeria, is the
main driver of print packaging growth in the region.
Flexible, labels & tags, and folding carton print
packaging are the fastest growing segments in the
region owing to strong demographics, and growing
manufacturing and retail sectors.
Corrugated will grow at a slower, but still strong 7.8%
pace in 2016-20, as exports are expected to pick up
starting in 2017 on the back of depreciated currencies
which make those countries’ goods more competitive in
the global market.
Africa is the second-smallest regional print packaging market, yet it has been the fastest-growing region in
2011-15 and will continue to be the fastest in 2016-20, at a whopping 9% annual average growth rate.
Africa
Regional profile
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Nominal GDP (US$ at PPP) Consumer expenditure: Total
Total exports fob
Note: Africa includes Nigeria and South Africa.
Source: EIU.
Macro trends in Africa
in 2011-2020 (% annual change)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding cartonCorrugated Other Africa growth (%)Total growth (%)
Note: Africa includes Nigeria and South Africa. Growth rates are average growth rates in LCU terms.
Total growth corresponds to average growth of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Africa print packaging market by segment
in 2011-2020 (US$)
Other regions 99.6% Nigeria
0.3%
South Africa 0.1%
Africa 0.4%
Africa print packaging market share in 2016
Note: This chart represents the share of 26 countries that is
covered by this study.
Source: EIU.
7.6%
9.0%
10.5%
7.5%
9.3%
11.2%
SouthAfrica
Africa
Nigeria
Africa growth by country
2011-15 2016-20
Note: Figures presented are cumulative annual growth
rates for each country in local currency terms. Region
growth is the average cumulative annual growth rates of
the countries in the region.
Source: EIU.
114 114
Five out of the ten fastest-growing print packaging
markets in 2016-20 are in the Asia-Pacific region, with
India leading the way in first position in this study.
Manufacturing is shifting inside the region, as labor
costs (and incomes) rise in China. Southeast Asia is
gradually taking over the title of the “world’s factory”, as
China loses some ground in print packaging while growth
in Vietnam and Indonesia accelerates in 2016-20.
Corrugated is the slowest growing segment in the region
and will slow down further in 2016-20. Asia-Pacific is
generally a trade-oriented region; weaker global demand
from the US and EU in 2015-16 dampens trade and
shipments, which slows down the corrugated segment.
Asia-Pacific is the largest regional market for print packaging, accounting for 43.6% of revenues in
this study, and will be the second fastest-growing region, expanding 6.8% in 2016-20.
Asia-Pacific
Regional profile
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Nominal GDP (US$ at PPP) Consumer expenditure: Total
Total exports fob
Note: Asia-Pacific includes Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan,
South Korea, Philippines and Vietnam.
Source: EIU.
Macro trends in Asia-Pacific
in 2011-2020 (% annual change)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
020406080
100120140
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags Folding cartonCorrugated Other Asia-Pacific growth (%)Total growth (%)
Note: Asia-Pacific includes Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Philippines and
Vietnam. Growth rates are average growth rates in LCU terms. Total growth corresponds to average
growth of all 26 countries in this study.
Source: EIU.
Forecast
Asia-Pacific print packaging market by segment
in 2011-2020 (US$)
Other regions 56.4%
China 28.0%
Japan 7.7%
India 5.0%
S. Kor. 1.0%
Aus. 0.9%
Indo. 0.7%
Phil. 0.3%
Vietnam 0.1%
Asia-Pacific, 43.6%
Asia-Pacific print packaging market share in 2016
Note: This chart represents the share of 26 countries that is
covered by this study.
Source: EIU.
1.1%
3.5%
4.0%
5.9%
6.7%
7.1%
9.7%
10.1%
1.0%
3.3%
4.5%
7.9%
6.9%
7.5%
9.6%
9.5%
Japan
Aus.
S. Kor.
China
APAC
Phil.
Viet.
Indo.
Asia-Pacific growth by country
2011-15 2016-20
Note: Figures presented are cumulative annual growth rates
for each country in local currency terms. Region growth is
the average cumulative annual growth rates of the countries
in the region.
Source: EIU.
Appendix B: Country profiles
116 116
In addition to the six markets examined in detail in the Deep Dives, the EIU explored the print
markets in 20 other countries. This section contains summary profiles of these other 20 markets.
Country profile summary
Country profile
20 country profiles
Australia Netherlands
Brazil Nigeria
Canada Philippines
Chile Poland
Colombia Russia
France Saudi Arabia
Iran South Africa
Italy Turkey
Japan United Kingdom
South Korea Vietnam
117 117
Australia is in the middle of the pack in terms of
print packaging market size, as the 13th largest
market with $2.3bn in 2015. However, in terms of
growth, it falls in the bottom half of the group. In
2011-15, Australia was the 16th fastest growing
market in the world and will maintain that position
in 2016-20.
Folding carton will be the fastest growing
segment in Australia, at an average annual growth
rate of 4% in 2016-2020.
Australia hosts one of the largest packaging
companies in the world, Amcor, specializing in
flexible and rigid plastics. While it is based
there, only 5% of its $10bn global revenues in
2015 came from the Australia/New Zealand region.
While Australia is in the middle of the pack in terms of size and growth among all countries in this
study, it is the second-fastest developed market in terms of print packaging, behind only South Korea.
Australia
Country profile
Australia
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 24.2 25.5
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 1,253 1,492
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 1.6 2.6
Private consumption per head (US$) 29,970 32,740
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 1.35 1.44
Source: EIU.
3.5%
3.5%
2.8%
4.0%
3.3%
3.9%
3.3%
3.3%
3.0%
3.3%
3.2%
3.5%
0% 5%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Australia
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
0.7 0.7
0.4 0.4
0.5 0.5
0.6 0.6
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2016 2020
Billio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Australia in 2016
and 2020 (US$)
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
2.3
2.5
CAGR
1.9%
118 118
Brazil is the 9th largest print packaging market and
will keep its standing throughout the forecast period
in this study. In 2011-15, Brazil was the 8th fastest
growing country in local currency terms. However,
the end of the commodities boom and the
current recession dragged growth, dropping its
position to the 13th fastest growing in 2016-2020.
Up until 2014, Brazil was growing fast, being the
3rd fastest-growing print packaging market in 2013
(at a rate of 10.8%). However, the economy fell,
bringing Brazil down to the 20th position in 2015
and 2016 at a tepid growth rate of 2.3%.
While being the largest market in Latin America,
Brazil is also the slowest. Growth will not pick up
until at least 2017.
Brazil has been going through political turmoil and an economic slump, which have hurt consumer
confidence and expenditures. Print packaging growth will pick up again only in 2017, reaching a
healthier 5% rate in 2019.
Brazil
Country profile
4.6%
4.7%
4.4%
4.7%
4.6%
4.8%
7.6%
7.7%
7.3%
7.6%
7.6%
7.8%
0% 5% 10%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Brazil
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
0.9 1.0
0.5 0.5
0.6 0.7
0.8
0.9
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2016 2020
Billio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Brazil in 2016 and
2020 (US$)
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
3.1 3.4
CAGR
2.3%
Brazil
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 206.1 212.1
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 1,705 2,040
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 8.2 4.9
Private consumption per head (US$) 5,140 6,120
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 3.71 4.05
Source: EIU.
119 119
Canada is the 10th largest print packaging market
in our study. While it lost a position in 2014 and
2015 to 11th owing to the strengthening of the US
dollar, it quickly recuperated in 2016 and will
keep its standing at least until 2020.
In terms of growth, Canada’s print packaging
market is relatively stable in local currency
terms. In 2011-15, it grew at an average annual
rate of 2.9% and it is expected to grow 2.8% in
2016-20.
Canada’s economy and print packaging industry
is closely tied to the US, so its trends will be
closely aligned to its neighbor to the south. Print
packaging is traded across the border, so
many products that are printed and/or packaged
in Canada go to the US market, and vice versa.
Canada is the fastest North American market and the third-fastest developed market and in terms of
print packaging, behind only South Korea and Australia.
Canada
Country profile
Canada
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 36.3 37.6
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 1,528 2,149
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 1.5 1.8
Private consumption per head (US$) 24,360 32,700
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 1.33 1.10
Source: EIU.
2.8%
2.8%
2.6%
2.8%
2.7%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.6%
2.9%
2.8%
3.1%
2% 3% 3% 4%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Canada
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
0.8 1.1
0.4
0.6 0.5
0.7 0.7
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2016 2020
Billio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Canada in 2016
and 2020 (US$)
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
2.5
3.4
CAGR
7.8%
120 120
Chile is the smallest print packaging market in
our study at $259m in 2016. It will surpass Iran
and re-gain the 25th position in 2020, when its
market will be $309m. Chile held the 25th position
until 2013, when Vietnam surpassed it.
Between 2011 and 2015, Chile’s total print
packaging market grew at a healthy average
annual rate of 6.8%. In 2016-20, the pace will
slow down, accompanying global trends, but it
will still grow at a 5.7% rate.
Following global trends, Chile’s flexible print
packaging is the fastest growing segment in
2016-20 with an average annual rate of 6.7%, on
the back of rising incomes and consumer
expenditures.
Despite being a large commodities exporter and with the end of the commodities boom, Chile was able
to successfully navigate through the slump, keeping its economy and consumption relatively stable.
Chile
Country profile
Chile
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 18.1 18.8
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 243 296
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 3.9 3.0
Private consumption per head (US$) 8,720 10,340
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 679 712
Source: EIU.
5.7%
5.8%
4.0%
5.7%
6.3%
6.7%
6.8%
6.8%
5.3%
7.1%
7.0%
7.6%
0% 5% 10%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Chile
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
77 95
42
51
68
81
61
68 12
14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Chile in 2016 and
2020 (US$)
259
309
CAGR
4.5%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
121 121
While it is one of the smallest markets in the
world, Colombia is the fastest-growing print
packaging market in the Americas.
In 2011-15, Colombia was the 7th fastest market
in the world, a position it will keep in 2016-20.
Currency fluctuation has a significant impact on
the print packaging market in Colombia. A
weaker peso in 2016-20 will undermine
consumption (which dampens flexible, labels &
tags, and folding carton paperboard as they
are more closely related to consumer goods), but
will lift exports and shipments (which helps
corrugated).
Colombia will continue to be the fastest-growing print packaging market in the Americas in 2016-20
with an annual average growth rate of 7.4% over the period, despite weaker consumer demand.
Colombia
Country profile
97 127
54
66
85
108
76
92
14
18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Colombia in 2016
and 2020 (US$)
326
410
CAGR
5.9%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Colombia
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 48.7 50.2
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 280 360
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 7.7 3.7
Private consumption per head (US$) 3,630 4,380
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 3,077 3,263
Source: EIU.
7.4%
7.5%
6.4%
7.6%
6.9%
8.3%
7.8%
7.8%
6.3%
8.1%
8.0%
8.6%
0% 5% 10%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Colombia
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
122 122
In 2011 France had the 5th largest market, but
was surpassed by India and the United Kingdom
and by 2015 it held the 7th position, which it will
keep at least until 2020.
As it is a developed print packaging market,
France’s growth rate is expectedly low
amongst other countries in this study. In 2016-20,
it will grow at an average annual rate of 1.9% in
local currency terms, a rate above only the UK
and Japan.
Nevertheless, the tepid 1.9% annual growth
rate in 2016-20 is better than the sluggish 1%
rate in 2011-15, owing to lingering effects of the
financial crisis, unemployment, and a weak
external market.
The print packaging market growth in France will be better in 2016-20 than it was in 2011-15, as it
recuperates ground that was lost due to the economic slump and shy consumer expenditures.
France
Country profile
2.3 2.7
0.9 1.0
3.0
3.4
3.4
3.9
0.4
0.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 2020
Billio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in France in 2016
and 2020 (US$)
9.9
11.4
CAGR
3.3%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
France
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 64.7 65.7
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 2,419 2,822
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 0.3 1.5
Private consumption per head (US$) 20,520 23,780
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 0.92 0.87
Source: EIU.
1.9%
1.9%
1.7%
1.9%
1.5%
2.2%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
1.3%
0.3%
1.9%
0% 2% 4%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in France
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
123 123
With the lifting of sanctions in progress, Iran will
be the fifth fastest growing print packaging
market, as investment and imported goods flow
in, the economy picks up, and consumers spend.
However, Iran is and will continue to be a small
market as there is a lot of ground to catch up.
In the food and beverage sector, under sanctions,
Iranian customers grew accustomed to local
products. Domestic producers will have the
advantage over some foreign competitors,
especially in goods where local production costs
are low. However, the entrance of new players
will mean that packaged goods will need to be
more attractive, and packaging equipment will
be imported.
Iran offers a young, well-educated, urbanized population of around 80m people; the economy is
diverse and industrialized; and years of isolation have resulted in pent-up demand and substantial
(frozen) assets abroad.
Iran
Country profile
86 94
47 50
75 79
68 67
13 13
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Iran in 2016 and
2020 (US$)
287 304
CAGR
1.4%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Iran
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 80.0 83.4
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 438 614
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 9.2 10.6
Private consumption per head (US$) 2,910 3,990
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 30,462 39,950
Source: EIU.
8.5%
8.5%
6.8%
8.7%
8.8%
9.5%
7.5%
7.6%
6.0%
7.8%
7.7%
8.4%
0% 5% 10%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Iran
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
124 124
In 2011-15, the Italian print packaging market
grew a lackluster 0.9% on average per year, the
weakest rate among the countries in this
study. It will get better in 2016-20, as Italy will
grow 1.9% on average.
Demand for convenience and processed foods
will be modest. However, sales of packaged,
semi-ready foods will remain healthy, as large
Italian companies produce and export those
products. The main examples are Barilla
Alimentare (pasta—folding carton and flexible),
Ferrero (chocolates—folding carton and labels &
tags), Cirio (sauces—labels & tags), Sacla
(sauces—labels & tags), and Buitoni (pasta—
folding carton).
Italy, the 8th largest market in our study, has had a weak economy, austerity measures and
contracting consumption. Print packaging growth will return, albeit still at a very low rate.
Italy
Country profile
2.1 2.4
0.8 0.9
2.7
3.1
3.1
3.5
0.3
0.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2016 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Italy in 2016 and
2020 (US$)
9.0
10.2
CAGR
3.3%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Italy
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 59.8 59.7
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 1,795 2,051
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) -0.2 1.5
Private consumption per head (US$) 18,270 20,880
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 0.92 0.87
Source: EIU.
1.9%
1.9%
1.4%
1.9%
2.4%
2.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
1.2%
0.2%
1.8%
0% 2% 4%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Italy
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
125 125
Japan is a mature and developed market, so its
expectations are for very low growth. Japan
bottoms the list of countries in this study at an
annual average pace of 0.8% in 2016-20.
Furthermore, Japan has been having ongoing
economic and demographic weakness, in spite of
Abenomics, a set of policies which combine fiscal
stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms.
These macroeconomic dynamics will limit growth
for consumer goods and retail, principally
affecting flexible, labels & tags and folding carton.
Despite the slow growth in total retail sales in
2016-20, e-commerce is growing around 10% a
year, which will keep corrugated as the largest
print packaging segment during the period.
Japan is the third largest market in 2011, behind China and the US, a position it will maintain until at
least 2020. Growth will remain slow, owing to a weak economy and a shrinking consumer base.
Japan
Country profile
4.7 4.8
2.9 2.9
2.4 2.4
7.2 7.3
1.7 1.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
2016 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Japan in 2016 and
2020 (US$)
18.7 19.1
CAGR 0.4%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Japan
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 126.3 125.0
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 4,709 4,866
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) -0.1 1.3
Private consumption per head (US$) 21,740 22,780
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 107.1 108.7
Source: EIU.
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.9%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
0% 1% 2%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Japan
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
126 126
The Netherlands surpassed Russia to gain one
position in terms of market size, becoming the 15th
largest print packaging market in 2016.
While it is small, the Netherlands is the fastest
growing print packaging market among EU
countries in this study, surpassing Poland.
The demand for shorter print runs will increase
as the economic outlook remains feeble and is
likely to continue encouraging substitution of
branded products for low-cost or store-label goods,
which increase variety on the store shelf.
Eating habits will continue to demand convenience
products, such as ready-made meals and pre-
packaged fresh food (flexible and folding
carton), yet price-consciousness will play a role.
The Dutch print packaging market is developed and mature, and its consumer preferences and trends
generally accompany Germany, its neighbor to the East.
Netherlands
Country profile
355 430
187
219
244
291
303
336 52
60
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2016 2020
Mil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in the Netherlands in
2016 and 2020 (US$)
1,140 1,337
CAGR
4.1%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Netherlands
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 17.0 17.3
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 751 882
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 0.2 1.7
Private consumption per head (US$) 19,640 22,560
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 0.92 0.87
Source: EIU.
2.6%
2.3%
1.2%
3.1%
2.6%
3.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.2%
1.4%
1.4%
1.7%
0% 2% 4%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in the Netherlands
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
127 127
Despite its rapid growth rate, Nigeria’s market is
relatively small. In 2015, it was the 17th largest
print packaging market. By 2020, it will fall to 21st,
mainly due to a weaker currency.
Its strong local currency growth is attributed mainly
to demographics, rising incomes and supportive
government policies such as a street trade ban,
which led to more customers visiting official retail
outlets and consuming properly packaged
goods.
Nigeria's emerging middle class is also becoming
more diverse in its tastes. Busier lifestyles,
urbanization and rising female participation in the
workforce push demand for ready-to-cook and pre-
packaged foods (flexible and folding carton).
While Nigeria is a relatively small market, it is the second-fastest growing print packaging market in
local-currency terms in our study, only behind India. In 2016-20, it will grow at an average annual
pace of 10.5%.
Nigeria
Country profile
233 219
123 114
160 151
199
179
33
31
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Nigeria in 2016
and 2020 (US$)
749
695
CAGR
-1.9%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Nigeria
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 187.0 206.8
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 438 472
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 15.3 9.1
Private consumption per head (US$) 1,850 1,760
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 246 395
Source: EIU.
10.5%
10.5%
9.6%
11.0%
10.4%
10.8%
11.2%
11.3%
10.9%
11.3%
11.2%
11.5%
8% 10% 12%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Nigeria
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
128 128
The Philippines is currently the 21st largest print
packaging market in our study, and by 2020 it will
gain two positions, surpassing Poland and
Nigeria, to be the 19th. The Philippines will be the
8th fastest-growing market in 2016-20 in local
currency terms, but in dollar terms it is the 3rd
fastest market, as the peso strengthens.
About 44.5% of the population is less than 20
years old, ensuring a continued supply of new
consumers and boosting demand for more
innovative products and packaging.
The Philippines is one of the region’s biggest
markets for alcoholic beverages. The local
market is dominated by beer sales (other
segment), followed by wine and spirits (labels).
The fourth fastest growing print packaging market in Asia-Pacific is also one of the poorest. Print
packaging revenues are relatively low and there is a lot of room for growth.
Philippines
Country profile
201 286
135
191 96
132 195
266
29
40
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in the Philippines in
2016 and 2020 (US$)
657
915
CAGR
8.7%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Philippines
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 102.3 108.4
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 305 435
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 1.8 1.9
Private consumption per head (US$) 2,190 2,880
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 47.1 44.2
Source: EIU.
6.9%
7.0%
6.4%
6.6%
7.2%
7.4%
7.5%
7.6%
7.0%
7.1%
7.8%
8.1%
0% 5% 10%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in the Philippines
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
129 129
Poland is both the smallest market in the
region, and the slowest growing one. In 2016-
20, Poland’s print packaging market will grow at a
2.5% annual pace, below the regional average of
3.7%.
Due to its membership to the EU and lower
production costs, Poland plays host to
manufacturing and print packaging plants
which export to the rest of Europe.
Poland is the second-largest producer of home
appliances in Europe, after Italy, which supports
growth of its corrugated segment, and it is the
largest dairy-products producer in the region, but
it is highly fragmented, which supports the
flexible and labels & tags segments.
Poland is the smallest print packaging market in the Central & Eastern European region, with
revenues estimated at $746m in 2016.
Poland
Country profile
225 273
120
140
155
187
194
224 51
61
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Poland in 2016
and 2020 (US$)
746
885
CAGR
4.4%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Poland
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 38.4 38.2
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 456 537
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) -0.6 1.4
Private consumption per head (US$) 6,880 8,180
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 4.07 3.78
Source: EIU.
2.5%
2.5%
1.9%
2.8%
2.1%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
2.7%
3.0%
3.0%
3.2%
0% 2% 4%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Poland
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
130 130
Russia had the 13th largest print packaging market
in 2011, but since then it has lost market share
and position in the rankings.
In 2016-20, Russia will be the second-slowest
growing print packaging market in the Central
& Eastern European region at an annual
average rate of 2.6%, owing to inflationary
pressures and Western economic sanctions, which
will hurt consumer expenditures and retail sales.
These trends will affect flexible, labels & tags
and folding carton.
Online retail, however, is growing, albeit from a low
base. An increase in online product offerings and
ongoing demand for lower priced goods will
support growth in the corrugated segment.
Russia is currently the 16th largest print packaging market in this study, a position it will maintain at
least until 2020.
Russia
Country profile
330 382
181 206
292
334
267
302 50
57
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Russia in 2016
and 2020 (US$)
1,120 1,281
CAGR
3.4%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Russia
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 146.5 145.9
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 1,218 1,645
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 7.2 4.7
Private consumption per head (US$) 4,640 6,300
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 67.6 65.6
Source: EIU.
2.6%
2.7%
2.4%
2.6%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
3.1%
1.6%
3.3%
3.2%
3.8%
0% 5%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Russia
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
131 131
The Saudi Arabian print packaging market has
grown and expanded its market share amongst
the countries in this study, coming from being the
19th largest in 2011 to 17th in 2016.
As the world’s largest oil exporter and having its
income strongly dependent on the commodity,
Saudi Arabia’s growth varied significantly over
the past five years, going from a 9.8% growth in
2012 to 2.1% in 2013. Growth will gradually
pick up again, averaging at 4% annually in
2016-20.
Demand for Western food, beverage and
tobacco brands is likely to remain high,
supporting growth in the flexible and folding
carton segments.
The government’s austerity program—driven by the low oil price—will eat into public-sector wages and
employment in the near term, thereby hitting domestic demand and the entire print packaging market.
Saudi Arabia
Country profile
261 311
144
167
229
269
206
236 39
45
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2016 2020
Mil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Saudi Arabia in
2016 and 2020 (US$)
878
1,028
CAGR
4.0%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Saudi Arabia
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 31.1 34.2
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 665 898
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 4.7 2.9
Private consumption per head (US$) 9,060 10,720
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 3.75 3.75
Source: EIU.
4.0%
4.1%
3.4%
4.1%
3.9%
4.5%
4.0%
4.0%
2.5%
4.3%
4.2%
4.8%
0% 5% 10%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Saudi Arabia
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
132 132
South Africa is one of the smallest print packaging
markets in our study, accounting for less that half
of the size of its regional peer, Nigeria, at $330m in
revenues in 2016.
However, it is the sixth fastest growth market in
our study, at an average annual pace of 7.6% in
2016-20.
The spending patterns of South African consumers
have clearly shifted in recent years, owing to the
emergence of a black middle class, high rates of
urbanization and the proliferation of store cards
offering credit. This trend will support growth for
folding carton and flexible, as demand for
processed pre-packaged foods and beverages
increases in a fast-paced environment.
While South Africa is a more developed print packaging economy than Nigeria, South Africa is falling
behind, as the gap between both African nations widen.
South Africa
Country profile
99 107
55 58
86 91
78 77
13 14
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in South Africa in
2016 and 2020 (US$)
330 347
CAGR
1.3%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
South Africa
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 55.0 56.7
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 289 317
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 6.5 5.5
Private consumption per head (US$) 3,050 3,360
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 15.7 20.0
Source: EIU.
7.6%
7.6%
6.0%
7.8%
7.7%
8.4%
7.5%
7.5%
6.0%
7.8%
7.7%
8.3%
0% 5% 10%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in South Africa
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
133 133
At $2.4bn, South Korea is the 11th largest
print packaging market in our study, though
over the forecast period Canada will overtake it,
and South Korea will fall to 12th position.
Over the entire 2016-20 period, South Korea
will sustain a healthy and stable annual
growth rate of about 3.8%, the highest rate
among developed markets.
The highly urbanized population and high
incomes will sustain solid growth in consumer
expenditures over the 2016-20 period. However,
low birth rates is a risk to South Korea’s
consumer base growth, which will hurt print
packaging in the medium and long term.
South Korea is the developed market with the highest annual average growth rate for the print
packaging market in 2011-15, a position that it will keep in 2016-20.
South Korea
Country profile
0.7 0.8
0.4 0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2016 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in South Korea in
2016 and 2020 (US$)
2.4 2.7
CAGR
3.0%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
South Korea
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 50.5 51.3
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 1,355 1,501
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 1.0 1.2
Private consumption per head (US$) 13,080 14,500
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 1,199 1,238
Source: EIU.
3.8%
3.8%
3.1%
3.9%
3.7%
4.4%
4.5%
4.5%
4.3%
4.6%
4.5%
4.8%
0% 5% 10%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in South Korea
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
134 134
As the 10th fastest growing market in our study,
Turkey will grow at an annual pace of 6% in
2016-20, reaching a market size of $965m by
2020.
Demand for higher-value processed food
products is expected to rise in 2016-20,
bolstering growth in the flexible, labels & tags and
folding carton segments. However, these trends
will be largely confined to urban areas in the
wealthier western parts of Turkey.
Moves by the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
such as increasing interference with the public
use of the Internet and social media, are likely to
hamper the expansion of online retail channels,
muting growth in the corrugated segment.
Recent political instability and uncertainty of how it will play out in the near future will mute some
growth in consumer expenditures and in turn the print packaging market.
Turkey
Country profile
249 293
137 160
218
251
196
218 37
42
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Turkey in 2016
and 2020 (US$)
838
965
CAGR
3.6%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Turkey
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 77.3 79.7
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 747 976
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 7.5 4.9
Private consumption per head (US$) 6,740 8,550
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 2.94 3.22
Source: EIU.
6.0%
6.0%
5.1%
6.1%
6.2%
6.5%
7.8%
7.8%
6.3%
8.1%
8.0%
8.6%
0% 5% 10%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Turkey
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
135 135
The UK is one of the slowest markets in our study
in 2016-20, expanding a weak 1.2% annually.
Flexible and folding carton are the growing
segments for the British print packaging
market. The combination of an aging population
and an increasingly fast-paced society will
support demand for convenience, health and
wellness, and luxury food products.
Online retailing has developed strongly in recent
years, far outpacing growth in overall retail
and driving growth in the corrugated
segment. These trends will persist in 2016-20,
driven by rising mobile e-commerce (m-
commerce).
The UK was the fifth largest print packaging market in our study in 2015, but it lost a position in 2016,
owing to uncertainties around the EU Brexit vote, hurting consumer confidence and expenditures.
United Kingdom
Country profile
2.4 2.7
0.9 1.0
3.2 3.4
3.6 3.8
0.6
0.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2016 2020
Bil
lio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in the UK in 2016 and
2020 (US$)
10.6 11.4
CAGR
1.9%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
United Kingdom
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 64.9 66.4
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 2,480 2,779
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 0.5 2.0
Private consumption per head (US$) 24,920 26,910
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 0.76 0.74
Source: EIU.
1.2%
1.2%
0.8%
1.5%
0.3%
1.7%
1.8%
1.8%
1.2%
2.0%
1.0%
2.7%
0% 2% 4%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in the UK
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
136 136
Vietnam was the smallest print packaging
market in our study in 2011. However, it is the
third fastest-growing market in 2011-15 and the
fourth fastest in 2016-20.
Vietnam will gain four positions to become the
22nd largest market in this study by 2020,
surpassing Colombia, South Africa, Chile and
Iran.
As labor costs rise in China and India, Vietnam
will attract many companies to relocate
manufacturing and print packaging activities. This
will drive growth in print packaging revenues
across all segments as exports, incomes, and
consumer expenditures rise.
Vietnam is gradually becoming a regional hub for manufacturing, as companies move their operations
from China and India to the cheaper South-East Asian nation.
Vietnam
Country profile
109 153
73
101 52
70 104
139
16
21
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2016 2020
Millio
ns
Flexible Labels & tags
Folding carton Corrugated
Other
Print packaging market by
segments in Vietnam in 2016
and 2020 (US$)
353
485
CAGR
8.3%
Note: Compound annual growth rate in US
dollar terms.
Source: EIU.
Vietnam
macroeconomic indicators 2016 2020
Population (m) 94.4 98.2
Nominal GDP (US$ bn) 204 272
Consumer prices (% change pa; av) 1.5 4.4
Private consumption per head (US$) 1,420 1,730
Exchange rate LCU:US$ (av) 22,471 24,047
Source: EIU.
10.1%
10.2%
9.5%
9.6%
10.4%
10.8%
9.6%
9.7%
9.0%
9.2%
9.9%
10.2%
8% 10% 12%
Total
Other
Corrugated
Folding carton
Labels & tags
Flexible
2011-15 2016-20
Segment growth
in Vietnam
Note: Figures presented are compound
annual growth rates in local currency terms.
Source: EIU.
Appendix: EIU Methodology
138 138
Methodology
Methodology
To develop the market sizing for the print packaging market segments, the EIU undertook a two-
phase approach, first estimating the historical market sizes (2011-2015), then forecasting the market
sizes over the next five years (2016-2020).
Phase 1: Historical
market sizes
(2011-2015)
Phase 2: Forecast
market sizes
(2016-2020)
The EIU estimated historical market sizes using a foundation
country approach, where detailed, bottom-up estimates were
developed for a select set of countries, and then econometric
models, combined with validation checks, were used to extrapolate
these results across the remaining countries in the pool.
The EIU forecasted market sizes for 26 countries using the
historical estimates to identify the best predictive drivers. The EIU
developed econometric models based on these drivers to forecast
the market size development by segment over 2016-2020.
139 139
The historical estimation process involves a number of steps.
Phase 1: historical estimates (1/3)
Supply side financial information collected,
segmented, and analyzed per country
This data is augmented by reliable official statistics (e.g., Eurostat) and broader
official industry statistics
Trade and industry publications are then
consulted for additional insight
Initial estimate is produced
Macroeconomic variables
(e.g., GDP per capita) are incorporated into the estimation process for a
sense check
Country or product specialists are then
contacted to validate information
Internal reviews of results comparing with relevant benchmarks and previous studies
Final estimate produced
Market size data is presented to NPES and VDMA task forces for
final validation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Methodology
140 140
The historical estimation process involves triangulating based on a number of different
sources of intelligence.
Phase 1: historical estimates (2/3)
Methodology
Source Details
Supply-side
financial
information
Company databases (e.g., Bloomberg, Orbis, Hoovers etc.) were used to identify
companies with printing capabilities in each segment. For public companies, data was
gathered from public financial disclosures (e.g., company websites, Bloomberg). For
private companies, data was gathered from databases (e.g., Orbis, EBSCO), market
research reports, specialized publications, and articles from business news outlets.
The EIU examined revenue data by business line for each company to determine the
proportion of the company’s revenue attributable to each print packaging segment and
identify the geographic breakdown. The EIU then made qualitative adjustments where
necessary to arrive at packaging-specific country revenue figures. Upon exhaustion of
company-level data collection, the EIU determined the top companies and associated
market share in each segment by country.
Official country
statistics
Where available, the EIU used official statistics as a lead or complement to the company-
level supply-side approach. Prime examples included two countries: Colombia (DANE)
and Germany (Eurostat).
Expert
interviews
Additionally, we interviewed print packaging market experts to vet data points and, where
necessary, assumptions to validate estimates (e.g., for top competitive tier market share)
and the direction of the print packaging industry.
141 141
The bottom-up estimation is intensive, so the EIU adopted a “foundation country” approach, focusing
its detailed supply-side research efforts on a carefully selected set of countries, and used these
findings to carefully extrapolate estimates to the remainder of the countries.
Phase 1: historical estimates (3/3)
Methodology
EIU research and market sizing
estimations
Foundation
country 1
market size
Foundation
country 2
market size
Foundation
country X
market size […]
Country 1a
market size
EIU extrapolation methodology, including robustness and
data checks
Country 1b
market size
[…]
Country 2a
market size
Country 2b
market size
[…]
Country Xa
market size
Country Xb
market size
[…]
To develop historical estimates for the remaining markets, the
EIU focuses its research efforts on a carefully selected set of
“foundation countries”.
Based on the EIU’s experience and understanding of how
macroeconomic factors affect specific industries and insights
draw from trends in existing datasets and secondary research,
the countries were separated into 5 groups. A foundation
country—the most representative member of each group—was
selected to focus on in primary and secondary research to
maximize the accuracy of the forecasts.
Note that the US, Germany, China, India and Japan were
deemed sufficiently unique and important to warrant being
analyzed separately from the five groups, and were considered
foundation countries without an associated group.
The historical market sizing estimates for the foundation
countries are then the robust basis of an extrapolation exercise
to estimate historical market sizes for other countries.
The EIU applied a number of checks and qualitative
adjustments to the extrapolated market size estimates, to
ensure that they reflected the EIU’s understanding of the local
dynamics in those markets.
142 142
The print packaging markets of the 26 countries were then forecasted based on assumptions about
future macroeconomic performance, business environment, demographics, and the state of
development of the print packaging market.
Phase 2: forecast estimates
Methodology
Traditional forecasting
process
Preliminary analysis of trends
and drivers
Run model with historical data
Test significance and accuracy
of hypothesis
Investigate and apply forecast
of key drivers
Scenario analysis and review
The EIU leveraged our own database, along with secondary research and primary
interviews, to construct statistically-driven econometric models that estimate the
market size and projected growth trends across all four print packaging segments.
Model specification
Statistical models were derived by analyzing internal and external databases
to compile a comprehensive list of relevant explanatory variables (over 80
indicators).
The EIU ran statistical analysis to identify the strongest explanatory variables,
including controls for time series autocorrelation and other corrections.
The EIU ran stepwise regressions to identify the best-fitting predictive drivers,
and then qualitatively assessed each model output to determine whether they
were economically sound. The EIU specified individual forecast models for
each country and each print packaging segment (a total of 104 forecast
models), based on the best-fitting predictive models.
Forecasts and qualitative input
The EIU refined the forecasts, making qualitative adjustments based on
insights primary and secondary research and our own macroeconomic
expertise.
Appendix: Definitions
144 144
The EIU uses industry-standard terms and definitions to capture the print packaging
segments.
Print packaging segment definitions (1/2)
Definitions
Segment Definition
Flexible print
packaging
A package or container made of materials that when filled or closed with content, changes in
shape. Substrates include plastic, film, foil, or paper, and can be used separately or in
combination to produce the package. Flexible packaging materials—liners, pouches, wraps,
stretch film, and bags—cover many consumer verticals including retail food packaging,
pharmaceuticals, tobacco, and household goods.
Labels & tags
packaging
Packaging that is attached to another container by label or tag. Self-adhesive, wet-glue and
shrink-sleeve labels are the three main label types used in packaging. Printed examples of
labels are on cans, jars, industrial containers, stickers, and wine and spirits bottles. This
segment also includes RFID tags.
Self-adhesive labels are made of paper that is die-cut and attached to a release
paper. Self-adhesive (or pressure-sensitive) labels are applied by taking the label
from the release paper and applying it to the final product.
Wet-glue labels are made of paper substrates that are not pre-coated with
adhesives but rather are applied with glue once the package is filled.
Shrink-sleeve labels are made of plastic or polyester film materials that contour to
special shapes. Shrink-sleeve labels do not use adhesives, but rather heat, to
tightly conform to a container allowing for 360 degrees of graphics and a
moisture- and friction-proof product.
145 145
The EIU uses industry-standard terms and definitions to capture the print packaging
segments.
Print packaging segment definitions (2/2)
Definitions
Segment Definition
Folding carton/
paperboard
print packaging
Semi-rigid boxes made of board that varies in weight (thickness). To produce folding carton
packaging, the paperboard is cut, folded, laminated, and finally, printed on for transport to
packagers. Cartons are shipped flat to packagers and are then folded into proper shape,
manually, or on an automatic filling line, as containers for final products. Folding carton is
used frequently for consumer goods and pharmaceutical packaging.
Corrugated
print packaging
Multi-layered rigid boxes made from two sheets of paper called, liners, glued to either side of
a corrugated inner ‘fluting’, which consists of connected arches, allowing for greater strength
and resistance. Once the substrate is formed, the corrugated board can be cut and folded to
produce a custom-manufactured container, and then printed on using a variety of print
methods depending on run size and design needs. Corrugated packaging is used primarily
as a shipping container for various industries, as well as for point-of-purchase displays and
pallets
Other print
packaging
Direct printing on two substrates: rigid plastics and beverage cans. Beverage cans includes
aluminum and steel cans that are printed on for alcoholic, soft drinks and other beverages.
Rigid plastics includes hard plastic containers, including bottles and containers, that are
used for consumer goods (such as food products, household items, and beauty and
cosmetic products) and that are directly printed on.
Source: Primary interviews with industry experts.