surveying the digital future: the impact of the internet

The Impact of the Internet--Year Five Report, 2005

Surveying the Digital Future—The World Internet Project USC Annenberg Center for the Digital Future

“Surveying the Digital Future: A Project of The Center for the Digital Future at USC Annenberg, 2005

Surveying the Digital Future:The Impact of the Internet

Year Five: Trends in Internet Use

Jeffrey Cole, Ph.D.Director, The Center for the Digital Future

at USC Annenberg

Cross-Platform Media Teams: Strategic Thinking for a Multi-Platform World

June 22, 2005Reston, VA




Lost Research Opportunity

A Longitudinal Study of Television, beginning in 1948 could have found

– Where the time for television came from

– How it affected …consumer behavior, connection to the civic process, desire to travel, career goals and much else




We are undertaking the study of the Internet that

should have been conducted on television in the late

1940s




Countries and Regions in Current Comparisons

United StatesSingaporeItalySwedenJapanTaiwanGreat BritainIndiaIranAustraliaBoliviaHong Kong

Mainland China*MacaoSouth KoreaGermanyHungarySpainChileArgentinaBrazilPhilipinesPortugualAfrica about to join




Trend # 1

Broadband Changes Everything




Broadband Changes EverythingBigger gap between dial-up and broadband than between non-

user and dial-up

Dial-up is disruptive — broadband integrative

Broadband determines how often people log on, how long they stay on, what they do online and where they log on from

Broadband predicts purchasing behavior and overall relationship to Internet




Broadband vs. Dial-up

Broadband users on 17.3 hours a week vs. 10.6 for dialup

Dial-up users on 2-4 times a day, broadband 16-30+

Broadband users do more of everything except using medical information and distance learning




Trend #2

Media use (especially television) has shown

profound change




Offline Media Use Continues to Change

Television displacement changing Newspaper and magazine use drops for

second year Book use declining slightly for first time Radio and home film watching remains

stable Age makes enormous difference




Average Hours per Week Spent Watching Television:Users vs. Non-Users

HTV x Usenet – 7 extra questions (10-22-03)

13.0

18.3

11.8

20.9

10.2

16.2

20.4

14.112.9

15.5

15.9

20.2

15.514.5

18.7

22.9

17.5

26.3

18.1

24.3

15.623.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Britain Chile(Santiago)

Germany Hungary Japan Korea Macao Singapore Sweden Taiwan USA

Nu

mb

er

of

Ho

urs

Users Non-users




During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE?

(Use)

0.92.1

2.82.0

0.41.5

0.6

4.8

16.2

1.6

11.6

7.8

6.1

4.7

8.1

3.1

4.75.5

0

5

10

15

20

Reading books Watchingmovies in the

theater

Watching rentedmovies at home

Playingvideo/computer

games

Listening torecorded music,

such as CDs,tapes, MP3 files

Readingnew spapers

Readingmagazines

Listening toradio

Watchingtelevision

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

Ho

urs

per

Wee

k

User Non-user

Q690 (K-4)




During a typical week, about how many hours of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities OFFLINE?

(Age)

Q690 (K-5)

2.33.0

1.7 1.50.9

2.71.8

10.9

4.5

0.61.9

0.7

5.0

2.82.1

8.6

11.9

6.5

0.4 0.9 0.8

4.25.4

3.1

7.6

15.3

3.7

7.76.7

9.9

3.1

7.4

4.2

2.0 1.9

7.9

0

5

10

15

20

Reading books Watching moviesin the theater

Watching rentedmovies at home

Playingvideo/computer

games

Listening torecorded music,

such as CDs,tapes, MP3 files

Readingnewspapers

Readingmagazines

Listening toradio

Watchingtelevision

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

Ho

urs

per

Wee

k

Youth (< 18) 18-34 35-54 55+




Online Media making a Real Impact

Online newspaper readership rising Magazine and radio use climbing Online books, telephone and television

use still very low Online game use very high, but drops

slightly in 4th year For young, some online media use

VERY high




During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online?

(Year to Year)

50.2

11.8

63.4

40.4

15.4

21.5

10.8

46.5

17.3

27.7

1.7

10.9

6.1

35.6

3.47.4

20.2

6.5

55.6

15.7

42.0

1.3

49.0

5.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Reading books Playingcomputer

games

Listening torecorded

music

Readingnew spapers

Readingmagazines

Listening toradio

Talking on thetelephone

Watchingtelevision

Av

era

ge

Nu

mb

er

of

Min

ute

s p

er

We

ek

2001 2002 2003

Q700 (K-2)




During a typical week, about how many minutes of your leisure time, if any, do you spend with the following activities online?

(Age)

106.0

36.8

3.8

57.0

46.0

0.60.8

35.5

18.7

45.8

15.8 13.17.2

1.11.6

50.0

22.0

5.511.3 8.1

1.4

11.319.1

129.0

3.6

17.9

29.3

11.4

60.0

12.7

29.0

19.8

6.2 5.4

37.5

2.0

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Reading books WatchingMovies

Playingcomputer

games

Listening torecorded music

Readingnewspapers

Readingmagazines

Listening toradio

Talking on thetelephone

Watchingtelevision

Av

era

ge

Nu

mb

er

of

Min

ute

s p

er

We

ek

Youth (< 18) 18-34 35-54 55+

Q700 (K-4)




Trend #3

Internet is the most important source of

information (for Internet users)




Internet #1 Information Source

First place people go to for information Broadband greatly accelerates this

process Want access to Internet everywhere Growth is in information, not

entertainment




How important is the Internet as a source of information? (Connection)

4.5%7.3%

39.0%

27.4%

21.8%

1.5%3.9%

23.9%

40.7%

30.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Not important Somewhat important Moderately important Very important Extremely important

Per

cen

t o

f R

esp

on

den

ts

Telephone Modem Broadband

Q530a (P-1)




Trend # 4

Reliability and credibility of media varies greatly

based on source and in different countries




Reliability and Credibility of Media

Continuing to drop—a healthy trend

Credibility high in much of the world

Trust in information varies widely depending on familiarity with the source




How much of the information on the World Wide Web overall do you think is reliable and accurate? (Year to Year) (Users)

0.4%

7.1%

37.7%

52.1%

2.9%0.0%

5.7%

36.3%

56.1%

1.9%0.2%

7.2%

39.9%

2.2%0.1%

8.3%

41.5%

48.8%

1.3%

50.6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

None Small Portion About Half Most All

Per

cen

t o

f U

sers

2000 2001 2002 2003

Q160 (M-1)




Information on the Internet: Is it Reliable and Accurate? (Users Age 18 and above)

Stage 5 – RELIA x Usenet (10-14-03)

7.2%

18.5%

5.0%

25.3%

4.8%

18.3% 17.6%

36.0%

7.1%

54.0%

13.4%

53.1%

47.3%

54.9%

13.3%

59.7%

26.4%

58.0%

69.7%

32.3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Britain China Germany Hungary Japan Korea Singapore Spain Sweden USA

Per

cen

t o

f A

du

lt U

sers

None of it or Some of it Most of it or All of it




How much of the information on the World Wide Web sites that you visit regularly do you think is reliable and accurate?

0.0%3.0%

18.7%

70.2%

8.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

None of it A small portionof it

About half of it Most of it All of it

Per

cen

t o

f U

sers

Wh

o F

req

uen

tly

Vis

it W

ebsi

tes

Q170 (M-2)




How reliable and accurate are: News Pages posted by Established Media

1.3%5.0%

19.4%

62.1%

12.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

None of it A smallportion of it


Per

cen

t o

f U

sers

Q173-1 (M-1)




How reliable and accurate are:Government Websites

2.1%6.1%

18.3%

56.5%

17.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

None of it A smallportion of it

About half ofit

Most of it All of it

Per

cen

t o

f U

sers

Q173-3 (M-1)




How reliable and accurate are: Information Pages posted by Individuals

3.0%

35.6%

51.8%

8.1%

1.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

None of it A small portionof it


Per

cen

t o

f U

sers

Q173-2 (M-1)




The Internet 2005-2010

The advantages of experience will disappear

Much Internet time will move to “down time” and number of hours on-line will shrink and mean less and less

Internet users will reach television levels, but in 2030 not 2010 (most of those who want to be on-line are)




The Internet 2005-2010 (continued)

Push back from most advanced users (E-nuff already)

Surprising amount Internet use will move to mobile




CONTACT INFORMATION

Web: http:/digitalcenter.org

E-mail: [email protected]

Phone: (213) 437-4433

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