supra sensor nsf final presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Macronutrient sensors enabling precision
agriculture
Bruce BranchaudMentor
Calden CarrollEntrepreneurial Lead
Darren JohnsonPrincipal Investigator
NO3-
Contact Counter: 103Group 6
Nitrate Monitoring
Fertilized zone(3-12 inches)
Groundwater seepage
Tiling or vaporization
Scientific American, Nov 2011
Drivers:
• Feed 7 billion people
• Double production by 2050
• Decrease environmental damage
What’s Being Done?
• All farmers do soil sampling and lab analysis– 1-2 week turn around
• Fertilized through irrigation: “fertigation”• U.S. average lost N: 30% of applied
*Real-time soil moisture monitoring increased yields =
$43-$81/acre with 25% reduction in irrigation frequency
Farmers
Gov’t subsidies
Hungry folks or
cars
Seed banks, Ag-Bio
Heavy equipment
Water systems
Seeds, pest/ weed control
Planting/tilling/harvest
Controlled irrigation
Current Generation
The Ecosystem
$$
Farmers
Gov’t subsidies
Hungry folks or
cars
Seed banks, Ag-Bio
Heavy equipment
Water systems
Seeds, pest/ weed control
Planting/tilling/harvest
Controlled irrigation
IT The Ecosystem
Regulatory fees
Next Generation$$
Farmers
Gov’t subsidies
Hungry folks or
cars
Seed banks, Ag-Bio
Heavy equipment
Water systems
Seeds, pest/ weed control
Planting/tilling/harvest
Controlled irrigation
IT
Nutrient management
Regulatory fees
The Ecosystem
Mitigate fines$$
How the Market Works?
OEM Large farm USDA/EPA
Small farm
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Electronic device manufacturers
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Engineering partners
• Composition of matter protection
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive licensing agreements with distributors
• Farmers waste resources on over-fertilization: real-time monitoring remedies this
• Farmers spend most of their waking hours in field (see DST). Automation remedies this
• OEM distributors of devices
• Catalog sales of sensor molecules via manufacturers
• Distributors of large-scale, high-tech agricultural equipment
• Electronic device manufacturers
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices
• Patent royalties• 1x sales of sensor devices• Recurring sales of disposable sensor
membrane components
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 2Split: Agriculture
Our First Experiment
• Hypothesis: Science shows precision agriculture increases yields/profits. Farmers care.
Research!
Blue River
Riverpoint Farms
Hermiston Growers
Our First Experiment
• Hypothesis: Science shows that precision agriculture increases yields/profits. Farmers care.
Hesitant “yes”; restricted to large farms, precision farms or low cost to small farmers
Our Delineation By Automation
Garden 1000 acres 10,000 acres100 acres
Automation
Yield over small savings Small savings over yield
TAM: $6 B/yr>100K systems
worldwide
SAM: $1.5B/yrAssumptions: 25K pivots w/ 1 sensor/acre
(125 sensors/pivot)
Target Market: $50-75M/yrAssumptions: 3-5% licensingRecurring consumable costs
would add to revenue
Nitrate Market: High-tech Farms
TAM: $6 B/yr>100K systems
worldwide
SAM: $1.5B/yrAssumptions: 25K pivots w/ 1 sensor/acre
(125 sensors/pivot)
Target Market: $50-75M/yrAssumptions: 3-5% licensingRecurring consumable costs
would add to revenue
Nitrate Market: High-tech Farms
This seemed small….
Experiment 2
• Hypothesis: Both large, precision farms and small, high-value farms would benefit from macronutrient management.
– False. Keywords: biodynamics, economy of scale
Research! Flowerdale Farms
Fall Creek Nursery
Highbush berry farms
Experiment 2
• Hypothesis: Both large, precision farms and small, high-value farms would benefit from macronutrient management.
– False. Keywords: biodynamics, economy of scale
• True! Blueberry farms pay way, way more for fertilizer than do corn farms.– $6.50/acre suddenly becomes >$24/acre
Our Delineation by Size and Automation
Garden 1000 acres 10,000 acres100 acres
Automation
Yield AND savings Small savings over yield
Plant/Soil Health
Customer Discovery via Possible Partners/Competitors
gThrive
What We Learned
• Hypothesis: Farmers buy equipment to improve efficiency and manage farm activities
– Farmers don’t buy things.
• Why are the successful companies service-oriented?– It competes with an upfront cost of only 100s of
dollars.
Our Delineation by Management Practice
Garden 1000 acres 10,000 acres100 acres
Automation
Yield AND savings Small savings over yield
Small, high-value = invest time in management
Large, automated = need assistance in management
New (Confusing) Model: Service Provider
OEM
Us
Large farm
USDA/EPA
Small farm
Product
Money
Nutrient Data
Licensing/sales
New (Confusing) Model: Service Provider
OEM
Us
Large farm
USDA/EPA
Small farm
Product
Money
Nutrient Data
Licensing/sales
Product
Service
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Sensor device manufacturers
• Extension agents
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Data analysis• Facilitate
incentives
• Composition of matter protection
• Relationships with regulatory agencies
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive leasing agreements
• Service contracts
• Improve profits through resource optimization
• Lower operating costs
• Lower DEQ costs and associated penalties
• OEM equipment manufacturers
• Direct sales
• Extension Services
• High-density, high value crop farmers
• Large row crop farmers
• Wastewater treatment companies
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices• Licensing of other sensor technology
• Patent royalties• Leasing and installation contracts• Regulatory incentives
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 8
TAM: $79 B/yrUS Ag data
SAM: $4.5B/yrAll direct nitrate fertigated
cropsAssumptions:
NOT in nitrate capped zones
Target Market: $2.1B/yrFarms >150 acres
(40% of irrigated US farmland)
Macronutrient Solution Market
Who? County agricultural resource officers (USDA)Why? Overwhelmingly positive response from agents
Also, they act as marketers and advocates.Cost? With agents, nothing.Barriers? Exclusivity in community, tech adoption fears (we
need test beds)
Extension Agents: Key Partners for Growth
Extension Agents: Key Partners for GrowthWho? County agricultural resource officers (USDA)Why? Overwhelmingly positive response from agents
Also, they act as marketers and advocates.Cost? With agents, nothing.Barriers? Exclusivity in community, tech adoption fears (we
need test beds)
Pivot Timeline
• Automated HUGE farms and biotech– Gillette model
• Automated farms and high value farms– Tractor model
• Farmers don’t buy things.• DEQ regulators and USDA incentives– ESCO model– Farmers aren’t fans of regulators
Product
Service
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Engineering partners
• Sensor device manufacturers
• Extension agents
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Data analysis• Facilitate
incentives
• Composition of matter protection
• Relationships with regulatory agencies
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive leasing agreements
• Service contracts
• Improve profits through resource optimization
• Lower operating costs
• Lower DEQ costs and associated penalties
• OEM equipment manufacturers
• Direct sales
• Extension Services
• High-density, high value crop farmers
• Large row crop farmers
• Wastewater treatment companies
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices• Licensing of other sensor technology
• Patent royalties• Leasing and installation contracts• Regulatory incentives
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 9
Us
USDA/EPA
Small farm
400 acres, 4 soil types: 8 sensors
Install sensors, provide service
$1K/sensor less incentive = $4140 to recover in contract
Incentives: Best case scenario $45.89/acreWorst case: $9.65/acre or state dependent 25% cost coverage
$3860 for 400 acre nutrient management
Average $10.40 in N-fertilizer lost to groundwater per acre
Pay for 2-3 year contract service monthly
Economics of TSP Operation
Us
USDA/EPA
Small farm
400 acres, 4 soil types: 8 sensors
Install sensors, provide service
$1K/sensor less incentive = $4140 to recover in contract
Incentives: Best case scenario $45.89/acreWorst case: $9.65/acre or state dependent 25% cost coverage
$3860 for 400 acre nutrient management
Onion Case Study (44K acres): Cost: DAP - $700/ton + $25/aRate: 280lb/a for 400a farm
= $39K
30% Improvement: $13K savedCharge: $6K/season
= $660K/yr contract revenue
Pay for 2-3 year contract service monthly
Economics of TSP Operation
First:- Finalize MOU with earlyvangelist, develop robust prototypesThen:- Build county extension agent relationships- Use federal incentives to expand to new farms- Extend data to new agents
To Do
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Electronic device manufacturers
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Engineering partners
• Composition of matter protection
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive licensing agreements with distributors
• Improve yield through resource optimization
• Lower runoff and associated costs
• Automation Real-time monitoring and remote management
• OEM distributors of devices
• Catalog sales of sensor molecules via manufacturers
• Distributors of large-scale, high-tech agricultural equipment
• Electronic device manufacturers
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices
• Patent royalties• 1x sales of sensor devices• Recurring sales of disposable sensor
membrane components
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 2Split: Agriculture
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Electronic device manufacturers
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Composition of matter protection
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive licensing agreements with distributors
• Improve yield profits through resource optimization
• Lower runoff and associated costs
• Real-time monitoring and remote management
• OEM equipment
• Catalog sales of sensor molecules via manufacturers
• Distributors of large-scale, high-tech agricultural equipment
• Electronic device manufacturers
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices
• Patent royalties• 1x sales of sensor devices• Recurring sales of disposable sensor
membrane components
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 3Split: Agriculture
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Electronic Sensor device manufacturers
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Composition of matter protection
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive licensing agreements
• Improve profits through resource optimization
• Lower runoff and associated costs
• Real-time monitoring and remote management
• OEM equipment manufacturers
• Piggyback on existing sensor companies
• Distributors of large-scale, high-tech agricultural equipment
• High-density, high value crop farmers
• Water QA facilities?
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices• Licensing of other sensor technology
• Patent royalties• 1x sales of sensor devices• Recurring sales of disposable sensor
membrane components
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 4Split: Agriculture
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Sensor device manufacturers
• Regulatory agencies
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Composition of matter protection
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive licensing agreements
• Improve profits through resource optimization
• Lower runoff and associated costs
• Real-time monitoring and remote management
• OEM equipment manufacturers
• Piggyback on existing sensor companies
• Distributors of large-scale, high-tech agricultural equipment
• High-density, high value crop farmers
• Water QA facilities?
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices• Licensing of other sensor technology
• Patent royalties• 1x sales of sensor devices• Recurring sales of disposable sensor
membrane components
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 5Split: Agriculture
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Sensor device manufacturers
• Regulatory agencies
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Data mining
• Composition of matter protection
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive licensing agreements
• Improve profits through resource optimization
• Lower runoff costs and associated hassle • OEM
equipment manufacturers
• Piggyback on existing sensor companies
• Distributors of large-scale, high-tech agricultural equipment
• High-density, high value crop farmers
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices• Licensing of other sensor technology
• Patent royalties• 1x sales of sensor devices• Recurring sales of disposable sensor
membrane components
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 6
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Sensor device manufacturers
• Regulatory agencies
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Data mining• Facilitate
incentives
• Composition of matter protection
• Relationships with regulatory agencies
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive licensing leasing agreements
• Improve profits through resource optimization
• Lower operating costs
• Lower DEQ costs and associated hassle
• OEM equipment manufacturers
• Licensing to existing sensor companies
• Distributors of large-scale, high-tech agricultural equipment
• High-density, high value crop farmers
• Large row crop farmers
• Ag wastewater treatment companies
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices• Licensing of other sensor technology
• Patent royalties• 1x sales of sensor devices• Recurring sales of disposable sensor
membrane components• Leasing and installation contracts
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 7
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Sensor device manufacturers
• Extension agents
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Data analysis• Facilitate
incentives
• Composition of matter protection
• Relationships with regulatory agencies
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive leasing agreements
• Service contracts
• Improve profits through resource optimization
• Lower operating costs
• Lower DEQ costs and associated penalties
• OEM equipment manufacturers
• Direct sales
• High-density, high value crop farmers
• Large row crop farmers
• Wastewater treatment companies
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices• Licensing of other sensor technology
• Patent royalties• Leasing and installation contracts• Regulatory incentives
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 8
Key Partners
Key Activities
Value Propositions
Customer Relationships
Customer Segments
Key Resources Channels
Cost Structures Revenue Streams
• Agricultural technology distributors
• Engineering partners
• Process chemistry
• Sensor device manufacturers
• Extension agents
• Design & development
• Manufacture devices
• Data analysis• Facilitate
incentives
• Composition of matter protection
• Relationships with regulatory agencies
• Exclusive or semi-exclusive leasing agreements
• Service contracts
• Improve profits through resource optimization
• Lower operating costs
• Lower DEQ costs and associated penalties
• OEM equipment manufacturers
• Direct sales
• Extension Services
• High-density, high value crop farmers
• Large row crop farmers
• Wastewater treatment companies
• Manufacturing of sensor components (physical device and membrane)
• Assembly of sensor devices• Licensing of other sensor technology
• Patent royalties• Leasing and installation contracts• Regulatory incentives
SupraSensor Technologies Iteration: 9