summary: interim report evaluation study of the pwc police illegal immigration enforcement policy ...

Summary:INTERIM REPORTEvaluation Study of the

PWC Police Illegal Immigration

Enforcement Policy



Enforcement Policy

www.virginia.edu/surveys

August 4, 2009

Project teamProject team• Tom Guterbock, Director, Center for Survey Research,

UVa• Karen Walker, Research Prof. of Psychology, UVa• Milton Vickerman, Assoc. Prof. of Sociology, UVa.• Abdoulaye Diop, Sr. Research Analyst, CSR, UVa• Bruce Taylor, Dir. of Research, PERF• Chris Koper, Deputy Dir. of Research, PERF• Tim Carter, Prof. of Sociology, JMU• Nicole Fedoravicius, F. Jennifer Jones, UVa

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Center for Survey ResearchUniversity of VirginiaCenter for Survey ResearchUniversity of Virginia

OverviewOverview• Background & history• Goals & limitations of the evaluation• Broad research questions• Data sources• The policy’s goals and possible consequences• Preliminary conclusions

– With summaries of key supportive data

• Next steps

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Background and historyBackground and history• July 2007: BOCS passes immigration resolution• BOCS decides an outside evaluation is needed

– Funding approved October 2007

• UVa teams with PERF, assembles interdisciplinary team

• Planning phase funded Dec 07 – Mar 08• Main project: Spring 2008 – Fall 2010• Interim report: August 2009

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Evaluation Project GoalsEvaluation Project Goals

1) Provide information about the policy’s implementation

2) Provide information about the policy’s potential effects on the community and police services in Prince William County

3) Provide a blueprint for future research and data collection by the Prince William County Police Department

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Some limitationsSome limitations

• No solid baseline we can compare PWC with– But some police data can be examined from earlier years

• No “control group” or comparison County– But we will soon be gathering crime statistics from other areas

• Immigration status often not recorded in police records– Not in other available data sources, either

• Direct surveys of illegal immigrants not feasible

• Study initiated in a highly charged atmosphere with strongly divided opinion

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More limitationsMore limitations• Important and rapid changes in the environment

– Decline in new construction in PWC– The mortgage crisis– General economic slowdown– Rapidly changing political climate– National immigration policy in flux– Shifts in public opinion– Strong media interest and attention

• Therefore: It is not possible to clearly attribute observed changes in the community to the County policy itself

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We are NOT . . .We are NOT . . .

• Evaluating the BOCS or its policy decisions• Attempting a comprehensive study of all effects of

the policy• Making recommendations on the best way to

handle illegal immigration at the local level• Investigating particular police-citizen interactions

for their legality• Changing the way individual police officers are

evaluated

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We are . . .We are . . .• Doing our best to maintain neutrality• Listening to diverse groups and opinions• Assisting the Police Department by providing

feedback as the policy implementation unfolds• Learning from Police Department and County

staff as we do our work• Keeping the County informed of our progress• Planning to use the results of the evaluation in our

research and scholarly publications

Three levels of analysisThree levels of analysis

Policy

Implementation

Police Dept.

Community

& Policing

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Three Broad Research Questionsfor the Interim Report

Three Broad Research Questionsfor the Interim Report

1) What are the Police Department’s experiences in implementing the policy?

2) What effect, if any, does the new policy appear to have on other areas of the Department’s policing?

3) What effect, if any, does the new policy appear to have on members of the Prince William County community?

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Methods and data sourcesMethods and data sources

• We are using a combination of methods

– Quantitative

– Qualitative

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Quantitative data sourcesQuantitative data sources• Collection of data from departmental records and

systems– Calls for service– Crime reports [UCR data]– Neighborhood services, school data– Planned: Arrest records– Planned: Field interview cards

• The annual PWC Citizen Survey– Including new questions about the policy

• Survey of police officers in Fall of 2008

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Qualitative data sourcesQualitative data sources

• Focus groups– Police officers at various levels

– Criminal Alien Unit

• “Key informant” and stakeholder interviews– County Board, County staff

– Community groups on all sides

– Immigrants (through churches)

– Business leaders

• Observation– At the jail

– “Ride-alongs” with patrol officers

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Multiple Policy Goals:Multiple Policy Goals:

• Improve public safety; • Reduce the number of illegal immigrants in the

county;• Save money by delivering fewer services to illegal

immigrants; and• Reduce neighborhood overcrowding and public

disorder,– such as loitering at day labor sites and public

intoxication.

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Possible other consequences?Possible other consequences?

• Create fear and a sense of being unwelcome among immigrants in general;

• Cause immigrants (including legal immigrants) to leave the county; and

• Result in lower crime reporting and greater victimization among immigrants.

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Preliminary ConclusionsPreliminary Conclusions

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1. A Contentious Processof Policy Formulation

1. A Contentious Processof Policy Formulation

• Large, rapid demographic change in the County 2000-2006

• Once started, action by the BOCS was speedy

• Very public controversy over the policy– Prominently featured in local and regional media

– The publicity and public conflict may have had as much effect on the immigrant community as the policy itself

• BOCS gave tight deadlines for implementation of this major policy change– Police and County staff had 60 – 90 days to develop details

• Policy was modified by BOCS in April 2008– Changed to cover only those physically arrested

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2. Smooth Implementation by the Police Department

2. Smooth Implementation by the Police Department

• PWCPD prepared carefully, consulted with legal counsel, developed training materials

• Every officer trained before policy went into effect (Jan – Feb 2008)– 4,884 officer-hours devoted to this training

• All were re-trained for policy revision, May 2008– 500 officer-hours

• Criminal Alien Unit created, trained in 287g program

Officer Survey shows:Effective training

Officer Survey shows:Effective training

Statement Strongly Agree or Agree

Currently, I believe it is clear how to implement the PWC immigration policy.

83.9%

I believe I have enough knowledge about the current policy to enforce this policy correctly.

85.0%

The training I have been provided by the PWPCD has adequately prepared me to enforce the PWC immigration policy.

82.3%

My personal beliefs are supportive of the current PWC immigration policy.

61.7%

My personal beliefs will have no effect on how to enforce any lawful PWC immigration policy.

92.2%

When appropriate, I have the necessary skills to ask immigration status questions.

88.9%

I have the necessary skills to review identification (e.g., driver’s license) for fakes.

78.5%

Officer survey Fall 2008, N=379

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PWCPD Community OutreachPWCPD Community Outreach

• Board directed extensive community education– Particularly with minority groups

• Over 100 meetings with community groups & media– Most attended by Chief Deane

• Meetings with over 300 County employees

• Pamphlets and media coverage

• Emphasizing:– Focus on those who commit crimes

– Protection for crime victims and those who report crime

– No racial profiling

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Contacts with Suspected Illegal Immigrants

Contacts with Suspected Illegal Immigrants

• Over 1,000 contacts March – December 2008– More frequent contacts under original policy

– Few contacts while policy was suspended (May)

– Average of 106 contacts per month, June – December

• Under the current policy, 68% of contacts with illegal immigrants resulted in an arrest

• 98% of suspected illegal immigrants were confirmed to be illegal

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More Officer Survey ResultsMore Officer Survey Results

• 63% of officers had questioned at least one person about their immigration status

• Officers felt well prepared for these encounters– 84.2% said the training was helpful– 96.1% felt confident about handling these

• Few problems reported with implementation of the policy– No racial profiling lawsuits so far

• Revised policy somewhat easier to implement than the original


Statement Str. Agree

Agree Neutral Disagree Str. Disagree

The policy is a useful tool for PWCPD officers.

16.4 48.8 26.4 7.0 1.3

The policy is too restrictive for PWCPD officers to do their job.

3.0 9.1 41.7 38.4 7.8



Question VeryPositive

SomewhatPositive

Neutral SomewhatNegative

VeryNegative

Overall, since July 1, 2008, what has been your experience with General Order 45.01?

12.7 28.3 51.5 6.2 1.3


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3. Effects on Crime Show:Mixed indications

3. Effects on Crime Show:Mixed indications

• Illegal immigrants were just 3-5% of those arrested for crime (Mar – Dec 2008).

• PERF analyzed PWCPD ‘calls for service’ data for past ten years– Several types of crime and disorder calls have declined

significantly (-2% to -11%) since policy went into effect

– Calls about violent crime are down by -9% to -11%– Less crime . . . Or less reporting?

• Citizen survey (2008) shows no difference in crime reporting rate between Hispanics and others

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Effects on crime, continued . . .Effects on crime, continued . . .

• Crime statistics from PWCPD show a 36% decline in aggravated assaults in 2008– But illegal immigrants are just 3% of those arrested for

this type of crime

• The policy may have contributed to reductions in some forms of crime and disorder, including violent crime.– But violent crime is down slightly across the region

• The policy is a reasonable way of targeting serious offenders who are illegal immigrants.

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4. Large-Scale ImplementationWould be Challenging

4. Large-Scale ImplementationWould be Challenging

• In the first eight months of the policy, 76% of arrests of illegal immigrants were for:– Public drunkenness

– Driving without a license

– DUI

• ICE has struggled to keep up with flow of persons detained by PWC for immigration violations.

• It would not be possible for ICE to keep up if many localities adopted a similar policy

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5. Most Residents Satisfied withImplementation & Police

5. Most Residents Satisfied withImplementation & Police

Lower Satisfaction among Hispanics

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New question about police execution

of the immigration policy

New question about police execution

of the immigration policy• “The Prince William County Board of County Supervisors

recently ordered the Department of Police to be more active in checking the citizenship or immigration status of people, to see if they are in violation of federal immigration law. How satisfied are you with the job the Police Department is doing in carrying out this policy?”

• If R SAYS OPPOSED TO POLICY, SAY: “We realize that opinions are divided on the policy. Would you be able to rate the job the police department is doing in carrying out the policy?”

• IF INSISTS THAT CANNOT RATE: SELECT “DECLINES TO RATE (VOLUNTEERED).”

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Question about police execution of the new policy

Question about police execution of the new policy

• IF SAYS POLICY CHANGED: “In July 2007, the Board ordered the Dept of Police to inquire into the citizenship or immigration status of detained persons when they are stopped and there's probable cause to believe the person is in violation of federal immigration law. In late April 2008, the policy was modified and it now applies only to persons who are actually placed under arrest. Taking into account the old and new policies together, are you . . .”

• The question asks about the police, not the policy itself.

• Asked of 1,223 respondents in 2008

Satisfaction: carrying out policySatisfaction: carrying out policyHow satisfied are you . . . % of all asked % of those

with opinion

Very satisfied 36.0 48.1

Somewhat satisfied 24.2 32.4

Somewhat dissatisfied 6.1 8.1

Very dissatisfied 8.6 11.5

Decline to rate/oppose the policy

7.7

No opinion/don’t know 17.2

Refused 0.2

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Satisfaction: carrying out policySatisfaction: carrying out policy

Somewhat Satisfied32.4%

Very Satisfied48.1%

Very Dissatisfied

11.5%

Somewhat Dissatisfied

8.1%

Overall satisfaction:80.5%

Satisfaction: Carrying out the Policyby ethnic/racial group

Satisfaction: Carrying out the Policyby ethnic/racial group

Reasons for being very satisfiedReasons for being very satisfiedComments from 48% who were very

satisfied:# of responses % of

cases

Illegal immigration causes problems in the community

67 15.7

The policy is good/needed 134 31.4

The policy’s enforcement is having positive results

105 18.3

The police have been doing a good job of carrying out the policy.

156 36.5

Other 40 9.4

Base: 427 respondents who explained why they were very satisfied

Reasons for being very dissatisfied

Reasons for being very dissatisfied

Comments from 11.5% who were very dissatisfied:

# of responses % of cases

The policy inadequately addresses the problems of illegal immigration

22 25.9

The policy is bad 41 48.2

Results of enforcing the policy are negative

13 15.3

Problems with enforcement 7 7.1

Police are racial profiling 14 16.5

Other 5 5.9

Base: 85 respondents who explained why they were very dissatisfied

Overall police performanceby ethnic/racial group

Overall police performanceby ethnic/racial group

Overall rating of policeby ethnic/racial group, by yearOverall rating of police

by ethnic/racial group, by year

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1 Hispanic 2 Black (non-hispanic) 3 All Others

Police attitudes and behaviorsby ethnic/racial group, by year

Police attitudes and behaviorsby ethnic/racial group, by year

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


PD treats everyone fairlyby ethnic/racial group

PD treats everyone fairlyby ethnic/racial group

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6. Changes in the Community Associated with

the Policy

6. Changes in the Community Associated with

the Policy

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7. Some Immigrants Left, Growth of Immigrants Slowed or

Halted

7. Some Immigrants Left, Growth of Immigrants Slowed or

Halted • There are no hard data on counts of illegal

immigrants before or after the policy was enacted.• Multiple informants, from the community and

from local agencies, agree that some people left because of the policy and the controversy about it.

• Supportive data (not conclusive):– Lower ESL enrollments in local schools, Sept 2008

– Decrease in births to uninsured mothers

– Individuals detained and turned over to ICE

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More on loss of immigrants . . .More on loss of immigrants . . .• We estimate that several thousand illegal

immigrants left when the policy was enacted• Economic crisis contributed

– Mortgage crisis– Loss of construction jobs, housing market decline

• Growth in immigrant population was rapid and increasing 2000 – 2006– The pattern of rising growth has halted– The growth was probably reversed– The police policy was partly responsible for the shift

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8. Overcrowded Housing andLoitering Declined

8. Overcrowded Housing andLoitering Declined

• Neighborhood services records show dramatic decline in complaints about parking in overcrowded properties– Down 38% from 2006 to 2008

• Residents reported less loitering at day labor sites– But this problem came back after its initial decline

• Mortgage foreclosures reached crisis proportions• Complaints about neglected vacant properties

went up substantially– Weed/tall grass violations doubled from 2006 to 2008

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9. Little Evidence for Improved Sense of Safety

9. Little Evidence for Improved Sense of Safety

• Some individuals reported feeling safer after the policy was implemented– Especially those in neighborhoods that had experienced

problems with overcrowding, public drunkenness

• But there was no decline in county-wide perceptions of safety (as measured in annual citizen surveys) during the years when immigration increased

• And there was no overall increase in the feeling of safety in the 2008 citizen survey

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10. Hispanic Perceptionsof PWC Became Negative10. Hispanic Perceptions

of PWC Became Negative

Want to live in PWC 5 years from now?

Want to live in PWC 5 years from now?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2004 2006 2008

1 Hispanic 2 Black (non-Hispanic) 3 All Others

% ‘yes’

11. Trust in PWC GovernmentDropped for Hispanics, Blacks

11. Trust in PWC GovernmentDropped for Hispanics, Blacks

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008


% who trust PWC government to do what’s right all or most of the time

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Overall . . .Overall . . .

• Police implemented the policy smoothly, with a high level of effort and professionalism

• The policy has had significant effects– Some of these match the multiple goals

– Some of these are negative for the County

• The social costs of the policy were high– Sharp ethnic disparities in perception emerged in the

2008 Citizen Survey

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Next stepsNext steps

• We’ll report on 2009 Citizen Survey next month• Second survey of officers• New round of informant interviews• More police officer focus groups• Intensive, follow-up interviews• Focus group with citizens on perceptions of Police• Gather data on crime from other jurisdictions• Final report mid-2010



Enforcement Policy



Enforcement Policy

www.virginia.edu/surveys

August 4, 2009

summary: interim report evaluation study of the pwc police illegal immigration enforcement policy ...

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