TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Study Project TRANS-CSP

Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar Power (WP02 Scenario)

Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)

IFEED

NREA

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

WP02 Scenario

Scope:

Develop a sustainable scenario for power generation in Europe taking into consideration the transfer of solar electricity from MENA

Result:

A well balanced mix of renewables with fossil fuel backup can provide low cost, secure and compatible electricity for Europe. Solar electricity imports can significantly reduce the electricity cost.

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

South-Eastern Europe

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ita G

DP

[100

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/y]

Greece

Turkey

Bosnia-HerzegowinaBulgaria

Croatia

Macedonia

Romania

Serbia &MontenegroSlowenia

Western Europe

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Netherlands

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Eastern Europe

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Scandinavia

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ita G

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[100

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Sweden

Driving Force for Electricity Demand: Growth of Economy

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Driving Force for Electricity Demand: Population

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Po

pu

lati

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illio

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SloweniaSerbia & MontenegroGreeceTurkeyCroatiaMacedoniaBulgariaBosnia-HerzegowinaRomaniaSlowac RepublicPolandHungaryCzech RepublicSwedenNorwayDenmarkIcelandFinlandSwitzerlandUnited KingdomNetherlandsLuxembourgIrelandGermanyFranceBelgiumAustriaItalySpainPortugal

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Driving Force for Electricity Demand: Electricity Intensity

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1960

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Ele

ctric

ity/C

apita

[kW

h/ca

p]

GDP/Capita [1000 US$ 1996 PPP]

Year

Fitting Empirical Data of 25 (150) Countries

y = a x b

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Scandinavia

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Cap

ita P

ower

Dem

and

[kW

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p/y]

Denmark

Finland

Iceland

Norway

Sweden

Eastern Europe

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ita P

ower

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[kW

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p/y]

CzechRepublic

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Poland

SlowacRepublic

Western Europe

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Per

Cap

ita P

ower

Dem

and

[kW

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p/y] Portugal

Spain

Italy

Austria

Belgium

France

Germany

Ireland

Netherlands

Switzerland

United Kingdom

South-Eastern Europe

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Per

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ita P

ower

Dem

and

[kW

h/ca

p/y] Greece

Turkey

Bosnia-HerzegowinaBulgaria

Croatia

Macedonia

Romania

Serbia &MontenegroSlowenia

Development of the Per Capita Electricity Demand

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Gross Electricity Demand in the Analysed Countries

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1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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Gro

ss E

lect

ricity

Con

sum

ptio

n T

Wh/

y

SwitzerlandNorwayIcelandBosnia-HerzegowinaSerbia & MontenegroRomaniaMacedoniaBulgariaTurkeySwedenCroatiaFinlandGreeceHungarySloweniaSlowac RepublicCzech RepublicPolandItalyIrelandUnited KingdomDenmarkGermanyNetherlandsLuxembourgBelgiumAustriaFrancePortugalSpain

Scenario TRANS-CSPHistorical Data

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Plenty Renewable Energy Resources in EUMENA

Biomass (1)

Wind Energy (30)

Geothermal Energy (1)

Hydropower (30)

Solar Energy (250)

In brackets: (Typical Yield in GWhel/km²/y)

Every 10 km² in MENA yield 15 million barrels of fuel oil per year in form of solar energy

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

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Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050

Ele

ctr

icit

y in

TW

h/y

Solar

Geothermal

Hydro

Wind

Biomass

Wave/Tide

Desalination

MENA

Europe

Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA

> 630 000

Sustainable Mix ?

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Parameters for Electricity Cost Calculation in the Scenario

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

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Spe

cific

Inve

stm

ent [

$/kW

]

PhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear

Specific Investment of Power Technologies (Example Spain)

Nuclear power: increasing cost of waste disposal and security

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

CO2 Capture and Sequestration (CCS) included in fossil fueled generation costs after 2020CSP in solar only operation

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ost [

c/kW

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PhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclearImport Solar

Electricity Cost of Power Technologies (Example Spain)

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

TRANS-CSP: Electricity Generation in Europe

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Wh/

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Import SolarImport OtherPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear

5 resources,mostly imported and limited

10 resources,mostly domestic and unlimited

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

TRANS-CSP: Import Dependency vs. Current Trend

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Sh

are

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tal

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ctri

city Import Dependency

in the TRANS-CSPScenario

Current Trend ofImport Dependency

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

TRANS-CSP: Installed Capacity in Europe

At any time, peak power demand is covered with an extra 25 % reserve of firm power capacity

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Pow

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apa

city

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]

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1400Import SolarImport OtherPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclearPeak Load

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

TRANS-CSP delivers Power on Demand:Peaking vs. Fluctuating Capacity

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

A Well Balanced Mix provides Firm Power on Demand

Germany, Winter Week 2050

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19.11. 20.11. 21.11. 22.11. 23.11. 24.11. 25.11.

Po

wer

[G

W]

Cogen Fossil PV, Wind Bio., Geo., Hydro. Import CSPPump Storage Peaking Plants (fossil) RES Surplus

Hourly time series modelling of power supply in the TRANS-CSP scenario

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Capacity Balance Germany 2050

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Hour of Year

Def

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an

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urp

lus

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W]

DeficitSurplus

A Well Balanced Mix provides Firm Power on Demand

requiredpeakingcapacity

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Renewable Energy Resource Indicators

FLh Annual Full Load Hours

THDR Temperature of Hot Dry Rocks in 5000 m Depth

DNI Direct Normal Irradiance

GTI Global Irradiance on Surface tilted by Latitude

Resource Hydro Geo Bio CSP Wind PV Wa/TiIndicator Flh THDR FLh DNI FLh GTI FLhUnit h/y °C h/y kWh/m²/y h/y kWh/m²/y h/yAustria 3608 200 4500 820 897 1380 0Cyprus 0 100 3500 2200 900 2100 4000Denmark 2818 100 5000 950 1736 1180 4000Finland 4933 100 5500 950 1316 1180 4000France 2838 200 4500 1060 633 1560 4000Czech Republic 1100 100 4500 760 1143 1130 0Belgium 4466 100 4500 700 1444 1140 4000Ireland 2264 100 4500 700 1610 1120 4000Luxembourg 789 100 4500 700 1500 1130 0Netherlands 2432 180 4500 700 1786 1120 4000Sweden 4852 180 4500 1070 1602 1240 4000Switzerland 2894 100 4500 990 1000 1170 0United Kingdom 1857 180 4500 660 2184 1100 4000Poland 1881 180 4500 790 1000 1140 4000Bulgaria 1667 180 5500 1070 900 1510 0Slowac Republic 2000 180 4500 750 900 1430 0Slowenia 4419 180 4500 860 900 1250 4000Germany 3667 180 4500 900 1709 1260 4000Hungary 3771 220 4500 1100 900 1370 0Greece 1331 213 3500 1900 1517 1730 4000Italy 2502 200 3500 2000 1600 1800 4000Malta 0 100 3500 2000 900 2150 4000Portugal 2589 213 3500 2100 3620 1910 4000Spain 1705 213 4500 2250 2325 2020 4000Turkey 2762 281 3500 2000 2000 1900 4000Macedonia 2667 100 4500 1100 900 1450 4000Croatia 2823 180 4500 940 900 1400 4000Romania 3086 190 4500 1200 900 1500 0Serbia & Montenegro 3715 220 4500 1250 900 1550 4000Bosnia-Herzegowina 3091 100 4500 1100 900 1450 4000Iceland 6038 400 4500 810 900 970 4000Norway 5164 100 5000 580 1923 850 4000

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ.Austria 56,0 56,0 n.a. 3,0 n.a. 10,8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,0 n.a. 2,9 n.a. n.a.Cyprus 24,0 1,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,5 23 20 n.a. 6,0 n.a. 0,1 n.a. 0,2Denmark 0,0 0,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6,9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 55,0 n.a. 1,3 n.a. 2,2Finland 20,0 20,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 20,4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 27,0 n.a. 1,7 n.a. 2,0France 72,0 72,0 n.a. 9,0 n.a. 86,2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 129,0 n.a. 23,4 n.a. 12,0Czech Republic 4,0 3,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8,7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5,8 n.a. 1,1 n.a. n.a.Belgium 0,3 0,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 13,0 n.a. 2,1 n.a. 0,2Ireland 1,0 1,3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8,9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 55,0 n.a. 1,1 n.a. 4,0Luxembourg n.a. 0,9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,0 n.a. 0,8 n.a. n.a.Netherlands 0,1 0,1 n.a. 0,9 n.a. 10,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 40,0 n.a. 4,3 n.a. 1,0Sweden 130,0 90,0 n.a. 0,9 n.a. 24,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 63,5 n.a. 3,7 n.a. 2,0Switzerland 41,0 38,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,0 n.a. 3,7 n.a. n.a.United Kingdom 7,8 7,8 n.a. 0,2 n.a. 39,3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 344,0 n.a. 7,8 n.a. 60,0Poland 14,0 7,0 n.a. 1,0 n.a. 34,3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 65,0 n.a. 3,1 n.a. 1,0Bulgaria 15,0 12,0 n.a. 0,6 n.a. 18,4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8,9 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a.Slowac Republic 7,0 6,0 n.a. 1,7 n.a. 4,6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,7 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a.Slowenia 9,0 8,0 n.a. 0,3 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,3 n.a. 1,0 n.a. n.a.Germany 26,0 26,0 120,0 45,0 n.a. 71,4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 262,0 n.a. 23,4 n.a. 7,0Hungary 5,0 4,0 n.a. 25,9 n.a. 11,3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,3 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a.Greece 15,0 12,0 n.a. 4,7 n.a. 8,0 44 4 n.a. 49,0 n.a. 3,9 n.a. 4,0Italy 105,0 65,0 n.a. 15,0 n.a. 42,9 88 7 n.a. 79,0 n.a. 17,6 n.a. 3,0Malta n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,2 2 2 n.a. 0,2 n.a. 0,1 n.a. 0,1Portugal 33,0 20,0 n.a. 7,0 n.a. 14,6 436 142 n.a. 18,0 n.a. 3,9 n.a. 7,0Spain 70,0 41,0 n.a. 18,0 n.a. 79,2 1646 1278 n.a. 93,0 n.a. 19,5 n.a. 13,0Turkey 216,0 122,0 n.a. 150,0 n.a. 47,8 405 131 n.a. 110,0 n.a. 15,6 n.a. n.a.Macedonia 6,0 4,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,1 n.a. 0,6 n.a. n.a.Croatia 9,0 8,0 n.a. 0,6 n.a. 12,1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2,6 n.a. 0,8 n.a. 3,0Romania 36,0 18,0 n.a. 0,5 n.a. 3,7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 7,9 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a.Serbia & Montenegro 27,0 27,0 n.a. 2,1 n.a. 13,6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,3 n.a. 1,0 n.a. 2,0Bosnia-Herzegowina 24,0 19,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11,6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,1 n.a. 0,6 n.a. n.a.Iceland 64,0 40,0 n.a. 91,2 n.a. 0,1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,0 n.a. 0,3 n.a. 10,0Norway 200,0 178,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11,9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 76,0 n.a. 1,0 n.a. 10,0Total 908 378 616 1584 1517 154 144

Wind PV Wa/TiHydro Geo Bio CSP

Total 908 378 616 1584 1517 154 144

Renewable Electricity Potentials in TWh/y