TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Study Project TRANS-CSP

Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar Power (WP04 Socio-Economic Impacts)

Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)

IFEED

NREA

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

WP04 Socio-Economic Impacts

Scope:

Assess the impacts of the TRANS-CSP scenario with respect to wealth creation, compatibility, security of supply and cost of electricity.

Result:

The TRANS-CSP scenario can eliminate the negative impacts of the present fossil-nuclear supply system and accellerate economic development in MENA.

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Oil

$/bb

l, C

oal $

/ton G

as $/MB

TU

Spot prices for coal have doubled, oil & gas tripled, uranium increased by 4 times in the past 5 years

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Coal &

Lign

ite

Fuel O

il

Natur

al Gas

Biomas

s

Photo

volta

ics

Wind

Ene

rgy

Hydro

power

Nuclea

r

Ext

ern

al C

ost

€-c

en

t/kW

h

Source:ExternEProgram

The hidden cost of „cheap“ energy: additional external costs of power generation in EU assessed by the ExternE program

span width of several EU countries

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

External Costs of Energy

Social Costs (quantified in ExternE)

Damages to Health (e.g. pollution of air and water)

Damages to Materials and Buildings (e.g. acid rain)

Damages to Crops (e.g. over nutrition, acid rain)

Environmental Costs (quantified in ExternE)

Damages to Ecosystems (e.g. over nutrition, acid rain)

Greenhouse Effect (e.g. desertification, weather extremes, global climate change)

Environmental Overuse (e.g. deforestation)

Smog (e.g. Asian Brown Cloud)

Political Costs (not quantified)

Political and Military Presence to Secure Energy Resources (e.g. USA in Saudi Arabia)

Wars on Resources (e.g. Persian Gulf Wars)

Political Decisions Influenced by Dependency on World Market (e.g. see today’s newspaper)

Nuclear Costs (not quantified)

Nuclear Waste Disposal for over 25 000 years (unsolved)

Protection of Transport of Nuclear Waste Materials (Castor Transports in Germany)

Hazard of Nuclear Accidents (e.g. Tschernobyl, no insurance for such risks)

Proliferation of Nuclear Materials (e.g. Threat of Dirty Bombs with Plutonium)

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Fuel Price History

Fu

el #

2 an

d e

qu

ival

ent

CS

P C

ost

[$

/MW

h)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CSP Cost Projection

Fuel #2 Cost Equivalent CSP Cost

Instead of being escalating, volatile and hidden, renewable energy costs tend to decrease due to learning and economies of scale, as long as market introduction continues under a reliable legal policy framework

similar curves for all renewables

fuel price level of the 1990ies achievable in 2015

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

TRANS-CSP: Investment for Least Cost Electricity

TRANS-CSP Mix: Energy Mix as described here incl. RUE, RES and CCSMix 2000: Maintaining exactly the Power Mix like in the Year 2000 with CCSNo Nuclear: Mix like in the Year 2000, but substituting Nuclear by Coal & CCS

Spain

4,04,55,05,56,06,57,07,58,08,59,0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Ave

rage

Ele

ctric

ity C

ost

[c/k

Wh]

TRANS-CSP Mix Mix 2000 No Nuclear Solar Import

invest phase least cost phase

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

European consumers pay today 35-70 billion € per year more for fuels for power generation than in the year 2000. The fuel cost escalation has lead to

a loss of GDP of approximately 1.5 % an increase of unemployment of about 0.8 % an increase of consumer prices of 2.4 %

European citizens pay about 80 billion € per year for fossil and nuclear energy in form of subsidies and external costs, in contrast to 8 billion €/y for the market introduction of the total renewable energy portfolio.

Security of supply is enhanced by the diversification of the portfolio of assets by renewables that has a high energy economic value which

up to now has been neglected by energy policy.

TRANS-CSP potentially eliminates the negative socio-economic impacts of the present unsustainable power system and leads to a secure, low cost and reliable supply after 15 years investment phase.

TRANS-CSP: Socio-Economic Impacts in Europe

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP Additional Positive Impacts in MENA:Concentrating Solar Thermal Power Plants combined with Sea Water Desalination in Coastal Desert Areas

Energy+Water+Income

=

Sustainable economic development in arid regions

(artist view created with Google Earth)

HVDC Link

AC Grid

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Photo of the top of a Linear Fresnel Concentrating Solar Collector and artist view of a greenhouse installed underneath to protect the plants from excessive irradiance and evaporation. This could be a concept for multi-purpose plants for power, water and horticulture. Other local uses include shade for parking and the production of steam for cooling and process heat. Source: Solarmundo, DLR

Power, Water, Shade, Income: A Solar Powered Desert Development Machine

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

Electricity

Power Cycle for Co-Generation

Concentrating Solar Collector Field

SolarHeat

Fuel

Heat

Thermal Energy Storage

MULTI-EFFECTDESALINATION Freshwater

Sea Water

Electricity

Power Cycle for Co-Generation

Concentrating Solar Collector Field

SolarHeat

Fuel

Heat

Thermal Energy Storage

MULTI-EFFECTDESALINATION Freshwater

Sea Water

Principle of a concentrating solar collector (left) and a solar power station with combined thermal sea water desalination (right). The generated electricity can be used for domestic power, for export and for further desalination via reverse osmosis. At present, a project of this type is developed in Jordan. The AQUA-CSP study starting in July 2006 will assess its potentials in MENA.

Concentrating Solar Thermal Power: A Technology for Sustainable Energy and Water

reflector

receiver

TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP

“The sun-belt and the technology belt can become very powerful when they begin to understand themselves as a community: a community of energy, water and climate security; a community for their common future.”

H.R.H. Prince El Hassan Bin Talal

President of the Club of Rome

Address for World Energy Dialogue,

Hannover Messe, April 2006