Status of the Planning Working Group’s (PWG) Efforts

Andrew Fusco

May 12, 2006

DRAFT 2

• Purpose of the PWG

• 2006 NCTPC process

• PWG efforts to date

• Next steps

Agenda

DRAFT 3

• Coordinates the development of the transmission studies to support the NCTPC– Establishes a base case model– Performs Resource Supply Option studies –

focused on reliability– Performs Enhanced Access studies – focused

on power supply economics– Develops cost and schedule estimates

Purpose of the PWG

DRAFT 4

NCTPC Process Flowchart

PWG evaluates reliability problems

and current transmission upgrade

plans

PWG develops and the OSC approves the reliability study

scope

PWG coordinates the study analysis,

identifies reliability problems, develops

solutions with estimates of costs

and schedules

Participants and TAG recommend scenarios and interfaces. The

OSC selects interface and scenario studies

for analysis

PWG coordinates the study analysis,

identifies access problems, develops

solutions with estimates of costs

and schedules

Reliability Planning

Enhanced Transmission Access Planning

OSC selects reliability and enhanced access solutions; checks for improved reliability through enhanced access solutions

OSC creates final draft

Collaborative Plan

Feedback and Iterative Studies

Participants and TAG review the reliability study

results

Participants’ resource planning

processes

Participants and TAG review the

enhanced access study

results

TAG feedback on final draft Collaborative

Plan

OSC approves final

Collaborative Plan

PWG develops and the OSC approves the

enhanced access study

scope

DRAFT 5 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

Enhanced Access Planning Process

Collaborative Plan Development

Develop Reliability Study Scope

Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions

Review Reliability Study Results

Evaluate current reliability problems and transmission upgrade plans

Propose and select enhanced access scenarios and interface

Develop Enhanced Access Study Scope

Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions

Review Enhanced Access Study Results

Reliability Planning Process

OSC publishes DRAFT Plan

TAG review and comment

Combine Reliability and Enhanced Results

2006 Overview Schedule

TAG Meetings

DRAFT 6

NCTPC Process Flowchart - REVISED

PWG evaluates reliability problems

and current transmission upgrade

plans

PWG develops and the OSC approves the reliability study

scope

PWG coordinates the study analysis,

identifies reliability problems, develops

solutions with estimates of costs

and schedules

Reliability Planning

OSC selects reliability and enhanced access solutions; checks for improved reliability through enhanced access solutions

OSC creates final draft

Collaborative Plan

Feedback and Iterative Studies

Participants and TAG review the reliability study

results

Participants’ resource planning

processes

TAG feedback on final draft Collaborative

Plan

OSC approves final

Collaborative Plan

DRAFT 7 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter

Collaborative Plan Development

Develop Reliability Study Scope

Perform analysis, identify problems, and develop solutions

Review Reliability Study Results

Evaluate current reliability problems and transmission upgrade plans

Reliability Planning Process

OSC publishes DRAFT Plan

TAG review and comment

Finalize Reliability Results

2006 Overview Schedule - REVISED

TAG Meetings

DRAFT 8

PWG Efforts to Date

• First PWG meeting in September 2005• Sept – Dec: Compared reliability planning

assumptions used by Duke and PEC• Oct – Jan: Developed scope for 2006

reliability study

DRAFT 9

PWG Efforts to Date

• Dec – Jan: Provided data for base case development– Load and resource forecasts– Dispatch order for resources– Coordinated interchange– Contingency and monitored line lists

DRAFT 10

PWG Efforts to Date

• Jan – Feb: Developed merged detailed base case

• Feb – Mar: Developed potential alternative resource options for study

• Mar – Apr: Performed base case and some generator maintenance reliability screenings

• Apr: Reviewed initial reliability screenings

DRAFT 11

Next Steps

• Complete studies for Resource Supply Options

• Identify reliability problems• Develop solutions

– Develop technical solutions– Develop cost and schedule estimates for

solutions

• Recommend alternative resource options for study