srivastava: from the mobile internet to the ubiquitous ... · telecommunications programme geneva,...

from the mobile from the mobile internet to the internet to the

ubiquitous internetubiquitous internet

YonseiYonsei University Graduate Global IT and University Graduate Global IT and Telecommunications Telecommunications ProgrammeProgramme

Geneva, 24 July 2006

Lara SrivastavaITU New Initiatives Programme Director

Strategy and Policy UnitThe views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.

Lara Srivastava can be contacted at [email protected]

©IT

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Helping the world communicate


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industry transitionsfrom local thinking to global thinkingfrom physical distance to virtual proximityfrom stable markets to fast-paced innovationfrom stringent regulation to increasing forbearancefrom low-speed to high-speedfrom frequent information flow to perpetual information flowfrom sometimes-on to always-onfrom fixed to mobile

NA

SA


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One mobile phone for every three human beings…

0

500

1'000

1'500

2'000

2'500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

fixed linesmobile subscribers

2.14 billion mobile

1.28 billion fixed (est.)

Source: ITU

67% m

ore mobile

!


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… and one person out of every 6 is an internet user

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 050

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Mobile subscribersInternet usersMobile penetrationInternet penetration

Users (millions) and penetration per 100 pop.

the two giants of the ICT industry:Mobile andthe Internet


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so what ofmobile + internet


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Not surprisingly there is much excitement about combining the two

A merger of:mobile (wireless) technologiesand information and data communications serviceswith the flexibility of IP networks

Convergence of:terminalsnetworksservices and applicationscorporate structures


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What drives it? User requirements

on-the-go access to information communication & file sharingthirst for multimedia

Market trendsthe mobile revolutionrapid take-up of internet and broadbandincreased use of portable and palmtop computers, and multimedia devices

Technological Innovationhigh speed, cost effective mobile systemsintegrated computing applicationssmall, powerful, application-rich user devices


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Early mobile internet: Mobile messaging mania!

Korea: mid-2005 – 90 million text messages sent a dayUnited States: youth sending around 1.6 billion text messages a month (mid-2005), but with convergence of TV and messaging in formats such as ‘American Idol,’ analysts predict this to increase to 2.5 billion messages a month, over 30 billion messages sent a year. United Kingdom: 2005 saw 29 billion SMS sent, compared with ~20 billion in 2003


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Phenomenal SMS growth in the giant of the mobile world

SMS messages in China (millions)

440 6'07540'400

103'000

172'600

300'000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Source: MIC


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and MMS begins to take off…(e.g. UK SMS vs MMS per user)

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2003 Q1 2003 Q2 2003 Q3 2003 Q4 2004 Q10.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

MMS messages per userSMS messages per user

Source: OFCOM, Operators


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money in the pocket: certainly…but whose pocket?By some estimates, the total SMS revenues in 2005 were about 75 Billion USD. Compare this to:

Global box office ~ 25-30 billion USD (US only 9 billion). Global music industry revenues ~ 35 billion.Videogaming, consoles and all software ~ 40 billionSMS outdoes them all

However, SMS is still priced above cost!Operators have in fact been increasing the retail price of SMS instead of decreasing it (e.g. roaming premiums introduced after SMS became “popular”)How will this encourage future services?


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the numbers on affordability

Source: ITU World Information Society Report

0.060.07

0.10

0.140.16

Americas Asia Africa Europe Oceania

Average price of an SMS, in US$, 2005

cheap-to-produce services, e.g. SMS, priced well-above cost in some regions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Cos

t (U

SD)

mobile basket23%

2003 2003 20032005 2005 2005

20 hours' Internet access25%

broadband($/100 kbps) 40%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Cos

t (U

SD)

mobile basket23%

2003 2003 20032005 2005 2005

20 hours' Internet access25%

broadband($/100 kbps) 40%

Average cost of ICT usage worldwide, in US$, 2003-2005

price of mobile services hasn’t decreased at same rate as broadband, internet


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Europe seeing the impact of the lack of affordability

(the case of Sweden)


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meanwhile, in Japan, digital music is more popular over mobiles than PCs!

Internet activities with a personal computer in Japan (2005)

55.4%

54.4%

50.2%

39.7%

21.7%

19.1%

16.3%

15.1%

10.6%

10.0%

8.8%

7.1%

4.0%

2.5%

2.4%

Acquisition of information about goods, services, companies, shops, etc.

Communication and/or information exchange w ith off ices, friends, etc.

Acquisition of new s and/or w eather forecast

Purchase and/or dealing of merchandise and/or services

Acquisition of information about central and/or local governments

Acquisition and/or audition of (animated and/or still) graphical digital content

Acquisition and/or audition of musical digital content

Application for quiz campaign and/or lottery, reply to questionnaire

No response

Participation in on-line games (netw orking games)

Internet banking

Job hunting

Other responses

E-application, tax return and/or report tow ard central/local governments

Correspondence course over internet (e-learning)

Internet activities with a mobile phone in Japan (2005)

69.5%

26.2%

25.1%

13.3%

11.2%

8.6%

6.8%

3.1%

1.9%

1.5%

1.5%

0.2%

0.0%

1.2%

22.4%

Communication and/or information exchange w ith off ices, friends, etc.

Acquisition and/or audition of musical digital content

Acquisition of new s and/or w eather forecast

Acquisition of information about goods, services, companies, shops, etc.

Acquisition and/or audition of (animated and/or still) graphical digital content

Purchase and/or dealing of merchandise and/or services

Application for quiz campaign and/or lottery, reply to questionnaire

Participation in on-line games (netw orking games)

Internet banking

Acquisition of information about central and/or local governments

Job hunting

Correspondence course over internet (e-learning)

E-application, tax return and/or report tow ard central/local governments

Other responses

No response

Source: MIC


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Much has to do with the success of services like i-mode

April 2002: 32 million subscribers December 2005: 85.6 subscribers

Growth of i-mode subscribers 2000-2002

Source: http://www.nttdocomo.com

Growth of i-mode subs 2004-2006


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mobile internet penetration

Penetration rates of internet-enabled mobile phones (Sept 2004)

94.1%

89.0%

33.5%

28.2%

22.1%

21.7%

21.4%

20.0%

18.9%

14.8%

Japan

Korea

United States

Austria

Finland

Netherlands

Hong Kong, China

Australia

Italy

Germany

Source: MIC, 3G mobile, as cited in ITU New Initiatives Programme, The Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile Multimedia Services, 2006


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key factors for making the internet mobile

• Avoiding the replication of the fixed-line internet access experience• awareness of issues such as screen size• understanding the user

• Harmonization of content– Open source, open access

• e.g. Japan

• Cultural and locally-relevant content• Affordable, cost-based pricing• Appropriate policy/regulatory framework

• including the protection of IP rights ….and….


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…and speed:the next G


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Growth of W-CDMA and CDMA 20001x

Users

Countries with networks

Growth of IMT-2000 worldwide(in millions of users, year-end)

269m

134m

78m

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2003 2004 2005

Growth 71%

Growth 100%

Number of countries with 3G/IMT-2000 services

1 418

41

68

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

78

2005


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W-CDMA subscriber growth (Jan 2005 – December 2005)

44.42 million W-CDMA subs worldwide at year-end 2005

Source: 3G today


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IMT-2000:W-CDMA, CDMA 2000 1x, CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO

IMT-2000 Subscribers:324 million “IMT-2000” users in total in March 2006

A head start for CDMA 2000?CDMA2000 1x seems to have a head start on W-CDMA for nowCDMA 2000 1x was a more natural shift from 2G cdmaOne - the jump from GSM to W-CDMA was a more substantial upgrade another reason cited is the high licensing fees for 3G in Europe (UMTS)

Classification:Although ITU includes CDMA2000 in the IMT-2000 family, it can be said that it is more appropriate to refer to CDMA 2000 1x EV-DO when talking about mobile broadbandthere are more W-CDMA subs than CDMA 1x EV-DO

of which 86.2 million W-CDMA (56.1) & 1x EV-DO (30.1) only

Speeds: W-CDMA: Average 250-300 kbit/s, theoretical 2 Mbit/sW-CDMA HSDPA: Average 2 Mbit/s, theoretical 14 Mbit/sCDMA 2000 1x: Average 60-100 kbit/s, theoretical 153 kbit/sCDMA 2000 1x EV-DO: Average 400-800 kbit/s, theoretical 2.4 Mbit/s


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as high-speed networks are deployed, services will diversify

Global mobile entertainment revenues (in USD millions)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Music Games Gambling Video Personalisation Adult Total

Source: Informa


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…and costs will drop

Source: Nokia, as cited by UMTS Forum

but that question remains: are/will retail prices drop sufficiently?


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mobile internet, portable internet


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the trade-off? mobility and speed

high-speed

high-mobility

low-mobility

low-speed

- xDSL- FTTH - Wi-Fi

- 2G, e.g. GSM - 2.5G- early 3G

Mobile Broadband:3G +Mobile-Fi? WiMax ?

Body/personalarea networks

e.g .- RFID

- Zigbee

still largely untapped markets !


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mobile broadband untapped revenue opportunities


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In addition to 3G+, new developments for mobile data

include: 802.16 & 802.20

IEEE 802.16 or WiMaxWorldwide Interoperability for Microwave accessCapacity: max 70 Mbit/s over 50 km

IEEE 802.20 also known as “Mobile-Fi”Optimized for high-mobility environments


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End-user devices: the mobile still dominates – why?

Economies of scale2 billion and growing

Wide Appealyoung, old, male, female, rich, poor…

Size and portabilitySmaller than the laptop

Emotional Attachmentmany can’t leave home without it

Fashion and identityAccessory, personal diary, status symbol

Physical proximityAt day, at night, standing still, on the move


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complementary strategies …

IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.

Short RangeConnectivity

WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

return channele.g. cellular

download channel

New RadioInterface

Services andApplications

IP based Core Network

IMT-2000

WLANtype

Cellular2nd gen.

Short RangeConnectivity

WirelinexDSL

otherentities

DigitalBroadcast

return channele.g. cellular

download channel

New RadioInterface

Services andApplications

IP based Core Network

Source: ITU WP 8F


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Ubiquitous Networks and Ubiquitous Computing

Ubiquitous computingEmbedding computational power into everyday items “intelligence” moves to the edges

e.g. smart objects/structures, intelligent appliances

Ubiquitous networksalways-on, anyone, everywhere network accessGiving network access to “anything”In this way, everything becomes ‘networked’NGN networks will most likely be the core/backbone infrastructure for deploying ubiquitous networks


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short-range technologies key to ubiquitous networking

typically in the “low-mobility, low speed” areaSome replace wires, other serve to multiply network connectionsExamples:

BluetoothUltra Wide BandZigbeeRFID (radio frequency ID)

Sensors

Mobile:2G/2.5G

Ubiquitous

e.g. PAN

Wireless:WLAN

High mobility

Low mobility

Low speed High speed

Portable:3G & others


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the radio revolution densest radio systems in the world are terrestrial radio and cellular …but we are soon entering a new era:

the ratio of radios to humans is nearing 1 to 1in which this ratio could exceed 1000 to 1

radios would be all around us, becoming “ambient” in the environment , through technologies like RFID … thereby radically transforming technology access

Making it “indistinguishable” from daily life


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RFID and sensors at the core of this revolution

RFIDThrough systems including tags and readers, RFID can identify and track itemsRFID tags can be very small (~ a grain of rice and even smaller) Networked RFID allows for smaller and smaller things to be connected

SensorsSensors and networks of sensors can complement RFID by enabling the collection of additional and relevant data, e.g. temperature, pressure, presence of bacteria etc…


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growth of radio & sensors

Adoption of wireless sensor networks (2004 -2010)

0

1

10

100

1'000

10'000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sales

Price

Units

Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things, adapted from Harbor Research

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

USD millions

supply chain

other

transport

pharmaceutical

retail

Source: ITU Internet Reports 2005: The Internet of Things, adapted from Juniper Research

RFID Growth (Western Europe)


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more convergence: mobile RFIDMobility is a natural extension of RFID deployment

Ability to track and monitor everyday things using a device one would carry anywaydata verification at the point of delivery and real-time data transfer (where fixed readers can’t reach) extends the reach of the “ubiquitous internet”

The integration of RFID capabilities in mobile phone is already underway, e.g .

the release a couple of years ago of Nokia mobile RFID kit for business, and the imminent release of the consumer phonethe US DoD planning to purchase mobile RFID devicesstandardization is advancing in forums such as NFC


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Some important challenges ahead

Pricing, affordability and new billing models Fostering competitiveservices and healthy content marketHarmonization of regulatory approachesSpectrum coordination, flexibilityStandards for mobile ubiquity (RFID, NFC etc.)

Network integrity/securityGovernance of resources Privacy and data protection

ITU Internet Reports 2005THE INTERNET OF THINGS

Over 200 pages of analysis, including statistical annex

www.itu.int/internetofthings/

THE ITU NEW INITIATIVES PROGRAMMEResearch & policy analysis (reports, workshops)on a wide range of topics since 1999

www.itu.int/ni

ITU Internet Reports 2006

digital.lifedigital.life

Coming in December 2006!


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International Telecommunication Union

Lara SrivastavaITU New Initiatives Programme Director

<[email protected]>

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srivastava: from the mobile internet to the ubiquitous ... · telecommunications programme geneva,...

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