ArndtRuther-MehlisWeeberKüpfer

Spatial Mobility and Demographic Change Causes, Effects, Regional Development Strategies

Regional Impacts of Demographic ChangeEDUPROF-meeting on April 14th & 15th in Groningen

Prof. Dr. Christian Arndt, EconomicsProf. Dr. Alfred Ruther-Mehlis, Urban PlanningProf. Dr. Rotraut Weeber, Urban Sociology, Real EstateProf. Dr. Christian Küpfer, Landscape and Environmental Planning

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The HfWU University and the Research Team

Arndt Ruther-Mehlis Weeber Küpfer

HfWU – University of Economics and Environment, Nürtingen/Geislingen

• Region of Stuttgart• about 4000 students and 25 degree programmes• main subjects

– Business and Economics,– Environmental Sciences, e.g. Environmental Planning and Protection – Urban Planning, Landscape Architecture, Agricultural Economics,– Real Estate, Energy and Resource Management.

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40

19

10

54 3 3

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 ab 80 alleJahrgänge

The HfWU focus on demographic change and spatial mobility

Migration rates by age-groups(per year, age of the head of the household)

Weeber+Partner, Source: Sozio-Ökonomisches Panel 1996-2005

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Demographic change and spatial mobility, four main research questions:

1. Come, Go, StayWhich populations groups? Where from and where to?

2. Who moves away? And why?What are the groups’ causes, motives, decision criteria?

3. Primary and secondary effects in the different areas?

4. What are the levers and strategies for influencing the changes and effects? What regional strategies are particularly relevant for rural and suburban areas?

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Migration balances across age-groups and cities

0-1

-31

53

-50

-28-22

18-5

044

-5-4

01

11

-50 -30 -10 10 30 50

011110

-11

-105

2-1

60

-100

-12

23

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

75 and more70 – u. 7565 – u. 7060 – u. 6555 – u. 6050 – u. 5545 – u. 5040 – u. 4535 – u. 4030 – u. 3525 – u. 3021 – u. 2520 – u. 2118 – u. 2015 – u. 1810 – u. 156 – u. 10

5 –u. 61 – u. 5

u. 1

Stadt Nagold (21.756)

Stadt Beuren (3.641)

Stadt Stuttgart (565.950)

Stadt Ulm (122.087)

-47-410

-55-152

-7375

711768

22971840

-243-519

-325-203-139

-229-385-392

-203-496

2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000

-2-87

0-28

-95

165167

39965

-76-58

-29-3

-11-22-30-37-18

-53

300 -100 100 300 500

75 and more70 – u. 7565 – u. 7060 – u. 6555 – u. 6050 – u. 5545 – u. 5040 – u. 4535 – u. 4030 – u. 3525 – u. 3021 – u. 2520 – u. 2118 – u. 2015 – u. 1810 – u. 156 – u. 10

5 –u. 61 – u. 5

u. 1Weeber based on Statistisches Landesamt, 2010

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Brain Exchange and Demographic Change

• Understanding the reasons, sources, future extent and impacts of regional migration on the demographic change needs knowledge about

– the skill-composition of migratory flows– the duration of migration– interactions between skill-composition an duration of migration– inter-regional and inter-national migratory flows– patterns of commuting

• Empirical identification problemlack of data on the semi-aggregated and micro level

• Possible solutions– Estimation techniques– Existing micro data – Using existing / establishing own surveys

so far: certain groups SHARE, GSOEP, student and alumni data

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Stylized facts:Regions in a Region

• Heterogeneity of – top-destination countries,– brain drain and – border effects

when the skill composition is accounted for

Source: Arndt, Christensen, Gurka (2010)

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Summary and Outlook

• Demographic change affects rural and suburban areas differently!– Young people have to leave these areas for higher education– Simultaneously higher educated young people do not find an adequate job in rural

areas and some suburban areas – Matching problems on the labor market

• Follow Up– What are the driving forces behind these processes?– Interactions between age groups, skill-levels, duration and stickyness– Scope for regional development strategies regarding infrastructure and

education?

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Change of age-groups 2010 to 2030 – federal state Baden-Württemberg

population projection Statistisches Landesamtes

Source: Weeber+Partner; Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg

-250000

-200000

-150000

-100000

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

0-4

5-9

10-1

4

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

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75-7

9

80-8

4

85-8

9

ab 9

0

Kinder-219265

Jugendl.,Junge Erw.-263153

Junge im Erwerbsalter, Aufbauphase-142068

Ältere im Erwerbsalter,Konsolidierungsp.-600514

Junge Alte+499704

Hochaltrige+354059