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Seattle Rental and Commercial Vacancy Report from Jones Lang LaSalle, presented to the Seattle Mortgage Bankers AssociationTRANSCRIPT
Creating leverage through superior market insight
May 2010
Jones Lang LaSalle Propaganda
• Founded in 1783 in London• 1999 LaSalle Partners and Jones Lang Wooten merged• Local Level - purchased the Staubach Company in 2008• 2009 - Global Revenues $2.5 Billion• 60 Countries with 750 locations including 180 corporate offices• Provide Facilities Management and Property Management on a global basis totaling over 1.6
Billion square feet• $40 Billion of Pension Fund and Asset Management through LaSalle Investment Management • Employees: 36,600• Only Investment Grade Professional Real Estate Services Firm• Ranked Number 1 by the Watkins Survey as Best Real Estate Services Firm• Rated the Most Ethical Real Estate Firm in the World by Ethisphere
Global outlook
Europe – The “L”
Additional 4% or 8.5M job losses
predicted in the EU within 2010-11;
Unemployment to reach 10.25%
Poland & Czech Republic strong;
Germany & France slow growth; Spain,
Greece weak
United States – The “U”
GDP growth rate predicted at ~ 2.4% & unemployment rate predicted to drop to ~ 9.5% by 3Q2010
Job growth sectors: Financial 2012+,
Education & Healthcare 2010+,
IT 2010+
Asia – The “V”
India & China projected to grow at
7%+ and 9%+, respectively over
next 2 years
Investment activity expected to grow by
30 – 50%
8
Rental GrowthSlowing
RentsFalling
Rental GrowthAccelerating
RentsBottoming Out
Global Property Clock
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle IP
Asia-PacificEuropeAmericas
Mexico City SeoulFrankfurt, Toronto
Amsterdam, Berlin, Chicago, Madrid,Milan, Los Angeles, Seattle
Boston, New York
Brussels, Singapore
Paris, Beijing
Moscow, Shanghai, San FranciscoDelhi Tokyo, Washington DCMumbaiLondon, Hong Kong
Note
• This diagram illustrates where Jones Lang LaSalle estimates each prime office market is within its individual rental cycle.
• Markets can move around the clock at different speeds and in different directions
• The diagram is a convenient method of comparing the relative position of markets in their rental cycle
• Their position is not necessarily representative of investment or development market prospects.
• Their position refers to Prime Face Rental Values Sydney
São Paolo
Rollercoaster freefall ending as several U.S. markets have approached bottom
Rental Growth Slowing
Rents Falling
Rental Growth Accelerating
Rents Bottoming Out
West Palm Beach
Detroit, Miami
Charlotte, Cleveland, Hartford / New Haven, Orange County, Orlando, Sacramento, Westchester County
Atlanta, Fairfield County, Indianapolis, New Jersey, Oakland / East Bay, Philadelphia, Richmond,, St. Louis, Tampa
Chicago, Cincinnati, Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles, Memphis, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco Peninsula, Seattle, Silicon Valley
Boston, Dallas, Jacksonville, New York, Raleigh / DurhamAustin, Baltimore, Denver, Minneapolis, Oakland / East Bay
Pittsburgh
Washington, DC
San Francisco
Houston, San Antonio
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Source: Global Insight
Global GDP is expected to be positive through 2012, fueling future development
-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%
8.0%10.0%12.0%
Indi
a
Chi
na
Jap
an
Ger
man
y
Fra
nce
UK
US
Ital
y
Rus
sia
Can
ada
Wor
ld
2009 2010 2011 2012
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
India China Japan Germany France UK US Italy Russia Canada
Fixed Investment YOY % 2009 Fixed Investment YOY % 2010
Source: Global Insight
China and India will continue to drive demand for global materials
Construction outlook
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Producer price index
Lumber Iron and steel Crude petroleum
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
US key material prices increased, yet still below 2008 levels
• US construction cost index climbed in 2010
• US building cost index has increased for the past four months
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
January-07 January-08 January-09 January-10
Mil.$, SAAR
Total - Office
Source: Moody’s economy.com and the Census Bureau
US office construction spending continued to fall
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q2 2000 Q2 2001 Q2 2002 Q2 2003 Q2 2004 Q2 2005 Q2 2006 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009
Tightening Standards for Commercial Real Estate LoansReporting Stronger Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans
Source: Federal Reserve Board - Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
US bank standards of commercial loans increased as demand fell
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2007 2008 2009 2010
Commercial annual growth Residential annual growth
Commercial construction contracted by 13.4 percent
Residential construction contracted by 16.9 percent
Percent change from a year earlier
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Construction includes natural resources and mining
US job losses extended in commercial construction, while easing in residential
• Positive fixed investment forecasted in India, China, US, Russia and Canada will drive global demand for key materials such as oil, copper and iron and steel in 2010
• The residential crisis has bottomed out in many markets and new construction starts are showing signs of stabilizing, although well below the markets peak
• Commercial construction will likely see further deterioration due to a slow recovery in the labor market, particularly in office-using industries
• Energy and petroleum prices will continue to fluctuate
• Money is scarce, banks unwilling to loan, no new construction projects in the foreseeable future
• The stimulus infrastructure program has caused a 2.1 percent increase in public construction spending in 2009. A further increase will likely be realized in 2010 and 2011
Outlook
Financing outlook
REIT shares up big in 2009 but still off from peakCommercial prices increasing for 3 straight months and have likely bottomed out
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
Dec-00
May-01
Oct-01
Mar-02
Aug-02Ja
n-03Ju
n-03Nov-0
3Apr-0
4Sep
-04Feb-05Ju
l-05
Dec-05
May-06
Oct-06
Mar-07
Aug-07Ja
n-08Ju
n-08Nov-0
8Apr-0
9Sep
-09Feb-10
Moody's Property Index Bloomberg REIT Index
REIT shares still down 50% from peak and property prices down 40%
Source: Bloomberg, Jones Lang LaSalle
CMBS market slowly reemerging
CMBS Volume(in Billions)
0255075
100125150175200225250
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert, Jones Lang LaSalle
Old versus new CMBSSimplicity and transparency will prevail
IndependentB-Piece HolderSpecial Servicer
33Rating Agencies (#)
28353# of Properties
1202# of Loans
325# of Tranches
2.5x1.3xIssuer DSCR (last $)
42%52%AAA LTV
52%74%Issuer LTV
$400 million$7.56 billionSize
November 2009July 2007Issuance Date
DDR 2009 - DDR1GSMS 2007 - GG10
Source: CMSA, Jones Lang LaSalle
Residential Mortgages
CorporateLoans Commercial Mortgages
ConsumerLoans
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Proj
ecte
d Lo
sses
, $ B
illion
sStaggering scale of “bad asset” problemNot just commercial real estate
Source: Moody’s Economy.com, Jones Lang LaSalle
Current commercial real estate debt outstanding$3.4 trillion as of year-end 2009
Commercial Banks, 50%
CMBS & CDO, 20%
Life Companies, 9%
GSE, 6%
Agency & GSE-Backed, 5%
Finance Companies, 2%REITs, 1%
All Other,
7%
Source: Federal Reserve, Jones Lang LaSalle
Commercial real estate debt maturities by lenderBank maturities dominate landscape and will be most challenged
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
($ B
illio
ns)
Life Insurance Companies
GSEs
CMBS
Others (including pension funds)
Banks (construction loans)
Banks (income-producingproperties)
Source: Morgan Stanley, MBA, FDIC, FFIEC, Intex, PPR, and Jones Lang LaSalle
Transaction volumes down 63% in 2009 versus 2008Volumes down 89% from 2007 peak
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Tran
sact
ion
Volu
mes
in B
illio
ns
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Jones Lang LaSalle
Cap rates have returned to early 2004 rangeOutlook is for bifurcated market with primary markets leading the charge
Source: Real Capital Analytics, Jones Lang LaSalle
5.00%
5.75%
6.50%
7.25%
8.00%
8.75%
9.50%
10.25%
Feb-
01Ju
n-01
Oct
-01
Feb-
02Ju
n-02
Oct
-02
Feb-
03Ju
n-03
Oct
-03
Feb-
04
Jun-
04O
ct-0
4Fe
b-05
Jun-
05O
ct-0
5Fe
b-06
Jun-
06
Oct
-06
Feb-
07Ju
n-07
Oct
-07
Feb-
08Ju
n-08
Oct
-08
Feb-
09Ju
n-09
Oct
-09
Feb-
10
Apartment Industrial Office Retail
Deleveraging has forced sales and recapitalizations
EQUITY: $25.0 MM
NEW EQUITY: $10.0 MM
DEBT: $65.0 MM DEBT: $75.0 MM
EQUITY: $25.0 MM
A-NOTE: $79.2 MM
B-NOTE: $42.6 MM
MEZZ: $22.8 MM
LOST VALUE: $52.2 MM
EQUITY: $7.6 MM2004 – 2007
• Value changes reflect NCREIF data (adjusted 4 quarters to account for the lag in the index)
2010
• 100% of the Equity & Mezz and $21.6 MM of the B-Note of the 2007 deal is wiped out, as prices return to 2004 levels
• Borrower needs to invest 1.4x their original equity in order to refinance asset
ADDITIONAL EQUITY TO REFI DEAL: $10.0 MM
$160 MM
$100 MM
2004 DEAL: $100.0 MM 2007 DEAL: $152.2 MM 2010 DEAL: $100.0 MM
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Market comparison
Tenants demand financials on landlordsLandlord demands financials on tenants
Over reliance on CMBS for financing needs during peak years
Blind eye to how debt is structured as long as you get the proceeds
Underwriting based on future cash flows
90% financing
Yesterday
Strong relationships with balance sheet lenders
Detailed knowledge of complex capital stacks
Rational pricing and underwriting of risk
Moderate leverage and "skin in the game"
Today
The commercial real estate shoe may not drop
• Commercial real estate prices have bottomed out
• Cap rates have begun to decline, with properties in primary markets outpacing those in secondary and tertiary markets
• Fundamentals remain weak; it’s a tenants market
• Owners equity is gone - trying to cover debt service - eventually will need new capital source
• As a result of the flight to quality, too much money is chasing too few assets
• REITs have been able to raise cheap capital in the public markets and are driving aggressive pricing
Capital Markets outlook
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Number of Months After Peak Employment
Perc
ent C
umul
ative
Job
Los
s Re
lativ
e to
Pea
k Em
ploy
men
t 1974 1981 1990 2001 2007
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Moody’s Economy.com, Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Just-ended recession was most destructive to labor market since Great Depression; Total employment in the U.S. is now less than the level of 10 years ago
U.S. job market stabilizing but the damage has been doneCurrent recession’s path of job destruction vs. notable recessions of past 40 years
Just-ended recession
Commercial mortgage maturity schedule
0
100
200
300
400
500
60020
09
2010
2011
2012
2013
($ B
il.)
CMBS Insurance Companies Banks
Source: Credit Suisse, SNL Financial, Trepp, ACLI, Jones Lang LaSalle
Many lenders to be focused on existing loans and not new origination
• A combination of time, property market fundamentals and post-bubble lending conditions will work against landlords throughout much of this forecast horizon
$396$433
$514
$391 $391
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Retail Apartment Office Hotel Industrial0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
$ Distress % of avg. ann. 2005-2008 sales volume*
The distress is building; Banks thus far prefer workouts/extensions in the hopes of strong recoveryIndustrial less distressed than all other property types
Distress ($ in billions)
*Scaled to size of total 2005-2008 transaction volume for each property typeSource: Jones Lang LaSalle, Real Capital Analytics
Recovery in commercial real estate debt marketsAgency (Fannie / Freddie) issuance of multifamily debt is on pace to shatter all-time records. 1Q 2010 issuance alone was $7.7 billion.
Multifamily Issuance by Agencies
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,00020
02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1Q 2
010
(Act
ual)
1Q 2
010
(Ann
ualiz
ed)
($ M
illio
ns)
Source: JPMorgan
2010 prospects for real estate investing…
• Pressure will continue to build on lenders to dispose of real estate assets despite ongoing preference for extending loans: regulatory environment will have impact
• Volumes will remain much lower than historical averages until either: 1) sellers capitulate closing the bid/ask 2) enough time passes so that values regain enough lost ground, or 3) lenders change strategy and begin wave of foreclosures
• A public markets solution to the supply of debt capital is critical: Continue to watch CMBS and REIT markets as leading recovery indicators
• REITs will continue to raise more capital to strengthen their balance sheets and make strategic acquisitions
• The strongest will survive: Healthy balance sheets a critical factor
• Real estate will revert to being a long-term investment vehicle that provides income, diversification in portfolios and potentially as an inflation hedge strategy
• Scarcity of core product in major markets is pushing pricing upwards
Mixed investor and lender mindset
- Tapped unsecured debt markets- Stocks recovered from lows- Comparatively low leverage- Poised for selective acquisitions
REIT Operators Banks/Servicers
- Redemptions are down- Largely marked-to-market- New offerings reflect current pricing - Return to “normal” portfolio
balancing by YE 2010
Domestic Institutions
- Keeping core; selling non-core assets & markets
- Net buyers but focused on yield
Offshore
- Equity largely wiped out- Selling where equity can be found- Need for cash will lead to
structured transactions
- Generally not selling unless forced- Using creative financing to buy
time- Multiple strategies to limit losses
- Strategies depend on cost of capital
- If enacted, changes to FAS 13 will change real estate strategies –may lead to more ownership
Private Equity/Opportunity Funds
Corporate Owners
- Increased REO sales activity- Still not marked-to-market- Auctions will be used for non-
institutional grade assets
- Among most active and motivated sellers in 2010
- Largely distressed and discounted loan portfolios with FDIC participation and incentive for long term hold
FDIC
There is a light at the end of the tunnel, but real estate markets are the caboose of the train
Tenants expand
Stimulus
Economic growth returns
Employment growth returns
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Seattle Office Market Q1 2010
Direct Sublease
Set of Seattle office buildings lit up with opportunity
Class B
Class A
Total
$30.6421.8%29.9 Million
$21.2713.2%21.6 Million
$25.5618.2%51.5 Million
Average Asking RatesVacancySquare Feet
Source: CoStar
Dank’s Summary - Strengths
Strengths
• Economy starting to recover with job growth starting in Q3 and Q4 of this year
• National banks are out of financial trouble but the state and regional banks are still hurting i.e. Frontier Bank closing last Friday
• Banks are starting to lend again but small businesses are still impacted because the local and state banks are still on the sidelines
• China and India are leading the way - we are truly a global economy
• In the Americas: Canada and Brazil barely felt the impact of the economy
• Corporate earnings have been robust with continued expectations
• Seattle has the 5 B’s according to Matthew Gardner - Boeing, Bytes, Books, Billionaires and Biotech that will help to drive the economy
• TEU Counts at the Port of Seattle up over 34% from last year
Dank’s Summary - Issues
Issues
• Greece debt problems are starting to affect other major countries including Germany and France
• US debt is not sustainable and action must be taken in near future, according the Federal Reserve Chairman
• Taxes are likely to go up which could dampen the recovery and job growth
• Real estate bubble in China and India could impact their economy, thus globally
• New governmental report on Obama Care states the costs will likely increase by $300B and the cost curve will continue up instead of down - further eroding consumer purchase power
• Cost of gas is expected to increase and could reach $5.00 per gallon by summer especially with Gulf of Mexico oil spill
Thank you!