sma presentation_infrastructure conference_4th feb 2011
TRANSCRIPT
Indian Port Growth Story: Other Side of the Coin
Satya Pal Business Analyst- Infrastructure
“Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver”Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
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Introducing Salva Resources
Salva Resources is a global provider of key technical and commercial services to the mining industry.
Mining Consultancy Salva Market Analytics
Data Products
Exploration Management
Resource Modeling
Mine Planning
Equipment Supply
Coal Marketing
Due Diligence
Salva Report
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Outlook Series 2011
Custom Consulting
Data Base
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
Our Locations
International Head Office Indonesian Office
Level 11, 82 Eagle Street Level 3, Bhumyhamca Sekawan Building
Brisbane, QLD 4000 Raya Cilandak KKO Street
Australia Garden Centre Cilandak Commercial Estate
Ph: +61 7 (0) 3211 9911 Jakarta, Indonesia
[email protected] Ph: +62 (81) 5164 8205
Indian Head Office
6th Floor, DN24
Matrix Tower, Sector V
Salt Lake City
Kolkata, 700 091
India
Ph: +91 (0) 33 6522 1030
2Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
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Our Projects
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
Disclaimer
The views expressed here contain information derived from publicly available sources that have not been independently verified. No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or the reliability of the information. Any forward looking information in this presentation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. The map of India shown is for illustrative purposes only and does not confirm to the geographical boundaries of the country. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by Salva Resources.
4Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
Agenda
Current state of play
Road ahead
Concerns and suggestions
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Indian Port Growth Story: Other Side of the Coin
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
Current State of Play
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XIth Plan (Original Projections)Electricity (incl. NCE)
Roads & Bridges
Telecommunications
Railways (incl. MRTS)
Irrigation (incl. Watershed) Water Supply & Sanitation Ports (incl. Inland waterways) Airports
Storage
Oil & gas pipelines Total: INR 2,056,150 CrorePort: INR 87,995 Crore
XIth Plan (Revised Projected)Electricity (incl. NCE)
Roads & Bridges
Telecommunications
Railways (incl. MRTS)
Irrigation (incl. Watershed) Water Supply & Sanitation Ports (incl. Inland waterways) Airports
Storage
Oil & gas pipelines Total: INR 2,054,205 CrorePort: INR 40,647 Crore
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5
54
33
4
3
-
20
40
60
80
100
XI Plan (Original Projections) XI Plan (Revised Projected)
INR
Th
ou
san
d C
rore
Sector wise Revision in Port Investment
Centre Private States
4.28% 1.98%
Source: Planning Commission, Government of India
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, IndiaThere has been mismatch in planning and execution especially from central sector
Current State of Play
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Chennai Mega Container Terminal
Sagar Island Project
Vizhinjam Port
Source: Salva ResearchInfrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, IndiaProject delay and overcapacity are the main reason for these shortfalls in investment
8Indian bulk ports: 2010
Haldia
DhamraParadip
VishakhapatnamGangavaram
Kakinada
Krishnapatnam
EnnoreChennai
Karaikal
Tuticorin
New Mangalore
BelekeriKarwar
Mormugao
Jaigad
Mumbai
HaziraMagdalla
Pipavav
KandlaMundra
Operational ports
Cochin
Current State of Play
36 8715464
144
233
100
231
387
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2015 2020
Coal Import Demand Forecast (Mt)
Coking coal Non coking coal Total
Source: Salva ResearchInfrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, IndiaDemand for both Coking as well as Thermal coal grow in medium to long term
9Indian bulk ports: 2020
Haldia
DhamraParadip
VishakhapatnamGangavaram
Kakinada
Krishnapatnam
EnnoreChennai
Karaikal
Tuticorin
New Mangalore
BelekeriKarwar
Mormugao
Jaigad
MumbaiDighi
HaziraMagdalla
Dahej
Pipavav
KandlaMundra
Astaranga
Machilipatnam
Caddulur
Salaya
Gopalpur
Kirthania Sagar Island
Valsad
Cement Plants
Steel Plants
Power Plants
Upcoming ports
Operational ports
Cochin
Talsara
Road Ahead
Source: Salva ResearchInfrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, IndiaDemand for different coal will have regional bias
Road Ahead
Mega/ Ultra Mega Power Projects and major Steel plants are planning captive ports
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Project name Industry Developer Capacity Coal requirement Captive PortMundra Thermal Power Project Power Adani Power Ltd 4620 MW 14.45 Mtpa Mundra SEZ
Ratnagiri Power JSW Energy Ltd 1200 MW 4.14 Mtpa Jaigarh portSalaya Thermal Power Plant Power Essar Energy 1200 MW 4.20 Mtpa Salaya portHazira Integrated Steel Plant Steel Essar Steel 9 Mtpa 1.50 Mtpa Hazira port
Jagatsinghpur Integrated Steel Plant Steel Posco India Pvt Ltd 12 Mtpa 14.00 Mtpa Jatadhari Muhan
Kalinganagar Steeel Plant Steel Tata Steel 6 Mtpa 3.96 Mtpa Dhamra port
Project name Industry Developer Capacity Coal requirement Anchored PortTata Mundra UMPP Power Tata Power 4000 MW 15.94 Mtpa Mundra SEZ
Krishnapatnam UMPP Power Reliance Power Ltd 3960 MW 15.46 Mtpa Krishnapatnam port
Or they will have a long term cargo agreement with some port
Source: Salva Research
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, IndiaDevelopment of ports in India will be driven by end user industry and not vice versa
Road Ahead
11Source: Salva ResearchOrissa port projectsInfrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
State should encourage investors and the central government should facilitate early execution of projects, in port deficit states
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Road Ahead
Vishakhapatnam
Gangavaram
Kakinada
Krishnapatnam
EnnoreChennai
Karaikal
Tuticorin
New Mangalore
BelekeriKarwar
Mormugao
Jaigad
Mumbai
Cochin
MachilipatnamNijampatnam
Cuddalore
Nellore
North Goa
Chikmagalooru
Bellary
Chitaurgarh
Ongole
Guntur
Durg
South Goa
Iron ore deposits and relevant ports in India Source: Salva ResearchInfrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
Iron ore depositsMore detailed analysis is required while assessing the viability of a port, in a port
surplus region
Concerns
Potential private port projects are suffering from undue delay
In medium term Indian port will experience regional over capacity
Central government, States and Industrialists are not on a common platform
Suggestions
Centre and state government needs to work more closely for the common goal. State should facilitate and let the market prevail
Rather than adding a new terminal in major ports, central government should emphasize on increasing efficiency
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Concerns and Suggestions
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India
We should not forget that our conservative spending behavior was one of the reasons why we were not badly affected by Global Financial Crisis
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Thank You!
Infrastructure: The Global Growth Driver3-4 February 2011; Hotel Taj Bengal, Kolkata, India