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© World Energy Council 2013

World Energy Scenarios – The

Role of Hydropower in Composing

Energy Futures to 2050

Presentation at the World Hydropower Congress

Session “2050 GW by 2050: What are the scenarios?”

Beijing, 20 May 2015

Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer

Executive Chair, World Energy Resources,

World Energy Council, London

© World Energy Council 2013 15/007 gkl 2

Table of contents

► Global status in 2014

► Drivers of hydropower expansion and prospects

► Methodology and assumptions of the WEC

scenarios

► Results of the WEC scenario study: global level

► Results by world region

► Findings and conclusion


Role of hydropower in global electricity

generation

More than 1,000 GW of installed capacity

Share in electricity generation totalled 17 % in 2014

Third most important source in electricity generation – after coal & gas

By far the most important renewable energy source –

> 70 % of total renewables-based electricity production

Also: Pumped-storage hydro plants play an important role as they

provide balancing power, in particular for various renewable sources


Renewable energy share in global

electricity production, 2014

Fossil fuels

67 %

Global power production

23,600 TWh

Including renewables

~ 5,400 TWh

Kernenergie

14 %

Renewables

23 %

10 %

Nuclear Wind

3 %

Hydro

17 %

Bio-power2 %

Source: World Energy Council, REN 21, IHA, own estimates

Solar PV 1 %

Geothermal,CSP and

Ocean < 1 %


TOP 8 countries for hydropower in 2014

Total capacity Added in 2014 Generation

GW MW TWh

Source: IHA and REN 21

China 300 21,850 1,070

Brazil 89 3,312 392

Canada 78 1,724 376

United States 101 212 257

Russia 49 1,058 164

Norway 31 - 136

India 44 1,195 125

Japan 45 724 85

Rest of the world 318 14,925 1,345

World total 1,055 45,000 3,950


Global hydropower generation since 1980

Source: IHA, EIA, REN21 – Renewables 2014 Global Status Report


TOP 10 countries by remaining

hydropower potential

Total potential Current Undevelopedutilisation

TWh/year % TWh/year

Source: International Hydropower Association

Russia 1,670 10 1,502

China 2,140 41 1,259

Canada 1,181 32 799

India 660 21 523

Brazil 818 48 425

Indonesia 402 3 389

Peru 395 6 373

DR Congo 314 2 307

Tajikistan 317 5 301

U.S. 529 52 256


Table of contents


► Drivers of hydropower expansion and

prospects


scenarios





Main drivers of hydropower expansion

Increasing access to electricity supply

Improving security of electricity supply

Providing affordable electricity by reducing the risks

associated with the volatility of fossil-fuel import costs

Preserve fossil energy resources

CO2 emission limitation

Balance intermittent renewables such as wind and solar


Forecasts and scenario results

for hydropower

IEA ExxonMobil

EIA Ref. IEA NPS ExxonMobil

EIA Ref. IEA NPS Jazz Symphony

Global electricity generation in TWh

Source: IEA, Exxon Mobil, EIA, WEC

2025 2040WEC

3,672

4,785 4,7625,004

5,8106,232 6,222

5,146

6,530

2012


Table of contents



► Methodology and assumptions of the

WEC scenarios





► environmental sustainability

► energy security, and

► energy equity

WEC's latest scenario study

Stories quantified by Paul Scherrer Institute

(project partner)

Comprises two scenarios:

Both are designed to help a range of

stakeholders address the energy

trilemma, i.e. to achieve


Deriving the scenario stories

Two scenario stories were developed, exploratory not

normative, equally probable but differentiated rather than

‘good and bad’.

► Jazz

Priority is given to energy equity, with a focus on achieving

growth through low-cost energy.

► Symphony

Environmental sustainability and security of supply are

being prioritised through internationally co-ordinated

politics and instruments.


Input parameters Jazz Symphony

GDP growth 3.54 % p.a. 3.06 % p.a.

Population 2050 = 8.7 billion 2050 = 9.3 billion

Energy intensity -2.29 % p.a. -2.44 % p.a.

CO2 prices 2050: 23-45 USD/tCO2 2050: 75-80 USD/tCO2

Pol. support for

technologies

Limited; energy choices based on

free market principles -> only limited

nuclear, CCS, and large hydro

Stronger govt. support for

nuclear, CCS, and large

hydro

Instruments

CO2 markets emerge with no

internationally binding commitments

-> bottom-up through national,

regional, and local initiatives

Transition to emissions

trading as a cost-efficient

market instrument, based on

globally agreed climate

protection targets

Quantification assumptions


Table of contents




scenarios

► Results of the WEC scenario study: global

level




Global power generation1,000 TWh

Hydro

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Oil

Biomass

Geothermal

2010 2030 2050 2030 2050

Coal (incl. CCS)

Gas (incl. CCS)

Biomass (incl. CCS)

Wind

Solar

OthersJazz Symphony

21.5

35.2

53.6

47.9

2%4%

16%

14%

5%

15%

3%

Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013

31.9

15%

16%

8%

25%

1%

25%

15%

17%2%

8%

6%1%

36%

2%

24%

6%1%

11%

3%1%

8%

6%2%

2%

42%

28%

10%

13%

7%

40%

5%

22%

13%

16%4%


Global renewables-based electricity

production


Jazz

Hydro

Biomass

Biomass (with CCS)

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

TWh


Global renewables-based electricity production


Symphony

Hydro

Biomass

Biomass (with CCS)

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

TWh


Capacity, production and share of hydro-

power in global electricity production

2010 2030 2050

Capacity in GW

Jazz 1,026 1,267 1,575

Symphony 1,026 1,505 2,161

Production in TWh

Jazz 3,491 4,550 5,789

Symphony 3,491 5,408 7,701

Share of hydropower

Jazz 16 % 13 % 11 %

Symphony 16 % 17 % 16 %



Development of global CO₂ emissionsThe role of hydropower in the WEC scenarios

in billion tons

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: World Energy Council, World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050, London, October 2013 and own calculations

Hydropower impact

Hydropower impact

Jazz

Symphony


Table of contents




scenarios





Map of the eight regions


Share of hydropower in total electricity

production by world region 2010

62

32 7 1846

12

11 14

16

13 16

14

11 16

13

16

6 13

3

2 1

AFRICA(Sub-

Saharan)

Scenario

Jazz, 2050

Scenario

Symphony,

2050

22

12

6


Table of contents




scenarios





Key quantitative hydropower-related

findings of the WEC scenarios

Global power generation rises by 150 % (Jazz)/123 %

(Symphony) by 2050 compared with 2010

Renewables’ share in power generation increases from

20 % (2010) to 31 % (Jazz)/48 % (Symphony) in 2050

Hydropower will remain the most important renewable

source in Jazz – sharing this role with solar in Symphony in

2050 (16 % each for hydro and solar in 2050)

In Jazz, CO2 emissions increase until 2040; in Symphony,

this trend is reversed from 2020/2025 onwards


Conclusion Hydropower plays/will continue to play an important role in

electricity supply.

The contribution of hydropower to electricity generation

saved 3.3 billion tons of CO2 emissions in 2014; from 2015

to 2050 hydropower will help avoid over 120 billion tons of

CO2 emissions.

There is still a lot of hydropower potential at global level

that can be exploited, which will increase the importance of

hydropower in achieving the central energy-policy and

climate targets.

To meet the sustainability targets, internationally agreed

policies as well as market instruments are indispensable.

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