session 7b – how to turn silver to gold by learning from other … · 2017-07-13 · 7/12/2017...
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Session 7B – How To Turn Silver To Gold By Learning From Other Long Term Care Markets
Kuan Ho Tan, FSA, CERA Ken Cheung, FIAA
7/12/2017
The SOA Asia‐Pacific Annual Symposium6‐7, July 2017
How to Turn Silver to Gold by Learning from Other Long Term Care Markets
KUAN HO TAN
Senior Marketing Actuary, South East Asia, SCOR
6‐7, July 2017
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KEN CHEUNG
Head of Hong Kong & Taiwan, SCOR
7/12/2017
For someone at the age of 65+ the probability of needing LTC over the lifetime is
30%Of the population needing LTC, have substantial LTC needs
(≥ 3 ADLs limitation)
68%
Fast Facts
Source: American Association for Long‐Term Care insurance
Ageing Landscape in Asia
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Asia is the Global Home of the Elderly
Source: Advancing into the Golden Years, Marsh & McLennan Companies Report, 2016
Asia Pacific is experiencing an explosive growth of the number of elderly people (aged 65 and above), outpacing other regions. By 2030 the number of senior people in APAC is projected to increase by 200 million (+70%)
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100
160
300
80
130
260
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
North America Europe Rest of the world Asia Pacific
Elderly population projection from 2015 to 2030, million, 2015‐2030
2015 2030
+70%
+62%
+30%
+60%
Societal ageing represent economical risks placing higher burden on economy. APAC major economies account for nearly quarter of global GDP, while being the most aged society.
25%
25%24%
27%
Share of GDP by region, %
APAC
North America
Europe
Rest of the World
297.4 million
155.8 million
53.7 million
98.4 million
Elderly population by regions
What stands out in the APAC region is unparalleled speed at which growth of elderly population is happening. Compare :
11%Of the population
18%Of the population
China – 15 years
Germany – 25 years11%Of the population
20%Of the population
Singapore – 15 years
France – 49 years13%Of the population
23%Of the population
South Korea – 15 years
Italy – 40 years
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
FR THA US JPN CHN MYS VNM KOR IDN PHIL SIN IND
Healthcare financing sources, %, 2014
Public Expenditure Private Insurance Out‐of‐pocket spending
The number of elderly people who need care is increasing;
and longer period of care is needed due to medical
advances → This puts tremendous pressure on public
healthcare financing
Total health spending as a % of GDP for Asia is also well
below that of OECD countries – 9.2%
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11
10
7
7
6
5
5
5
4
4
3
USA
France
Japan
Korea, Rep.
Vietnam
China
Singapore
Philippines
India
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Health expenditure, % of GDP, 2014OECD Average
Long Term Care Financing
Source: Advancing into the Golden Years, Marsh & McLennan Companies Report, 2016; OECD Health Statistics
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ADL
Eating / Feeding oneself
Dressing
Mobility (level surface / transfer
from bed to wheelchair)
Bathing
Toileting
Continence
IADL
Housework
Money Management
Medication Adherence
Shopping
Use of Telephone
The ADL/IADL measures for assessing dependency and Dementia
Six General Stages the Elderly Take through the Care System Based on Their Health Condition
Increasing Frailty
IncreasingDependency
Transition CareResidential Care
Self Sufficient
Assisted living
Family Support
Home Care
Hospitalization
Full Recovery
Poor Recovery
Partial Recovery
TypicalAging Needs
Substantialdeterioration
Low care level required
Continuum of Care
DEMENTIA
Health Conditions
Social SupportLifestyle Choices
Demographics
Key Risk Factors Associated with Old Age Disability
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Demographic & Socio‐Economic Insights
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24% 15% 19%
% of Elderly Population, 2012 vs. 2050, ≥ 60
France Singapore USA
30% by 2050
38% by 2050
27% by 2050
World Average, 11%
77%84%
75%
49% 51% 48%
France Singapore USA
Proportion Currently Married, ≥ 60, %
Men Women
Elderly Population is Significant in France, Singapore and USA
Source: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/2012PopAgeingandDev_WallChart.pdf
Life expectancy at age 60
France: Singapore: USA: 22 2522 2522 27
8% 6% 43% 20% 35% 25%
Men
Women
Proportion of people aged ≥ 60, who are economically active %
France USASingapore
4 7 5
France Singapore USA
Old‐age support ratio (No. of age 15‐64 over No. of Age 65+), %, 2012
2 by 2050
2 by 2050
3 by 2050
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LTC Coverage (Public / Private)
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Singapore
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Public LTC Insurance System in Singapore (ElderShield)
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Established June, 2002
Eligibility For aged 40 and above; Opt‐out is allowed
Benefits SGD 400 (USD 290) monthly for 72 months upon insured cannot perform 3 out of 6 ADL
Cost Coverage Very basic coverage considering average nursing home costs SGD1000‐3500 monthly (USD725‐2537)
Coverage Duration Whole life
Premiums Deducted from one’s Medisave account until age 65
Insurer Common insurance scheme managed by 3 panel insurers (Aviva, Great Eastern and NTUC Income)
Private LTC MarketPrivate LTC Market
Supplementary LTC plans (by non‐panel insurer)
Supplementary ElderShield Plans (by panel insurer)
Private LTC market in Singapore
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Supplementary PlansI – Supplements which are extensions of basic ElderShield
II – Supplements which overlap with basic ElderShield
III – Supplements which integrate with basic ElderShield
Eldershield
ElderShield
ElderShield
6 years
6 years
6 years
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France
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Established 2002
Eligibility to benefits
≥ Age 60
Benefits
1) Indemnity model, cash benefit according to a service plan
2) Monthly cash benefit, is paid to people belonging to GIR 1 to GIR 4 levels.
3) The benefit is capped each year, as a function of these four levels, taking into account the
beneficiary’s income.
4) Steeply income adjusted (up to 90% copay)
Criteria
There are 6 level of GIR (Groupe Iso‐Resource) that determine the amount of benefits
GIR 1 –GIR2
3AVQ4 –4AVQ6
GIR 3 – 2AVQ4 –3AVQ6
GIR4 ‐ 2AVQ6
Severe (Total) Loss of Autonomy
Moderate (Partial)Loss of Autonomy
Public LTC Insurance System in France ‐ APA(Allocation Personnalisée d‘Autonomie)
AGGIR Based on 6 levels, from GIR 1
to GIR 6
ADL Definition based on loss of X
out of 4, 5 or 6 ADL
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Covers 5.7m out of 66m
population
15% of age 40+ (2010)
Supplements gap of LTC
LTC costs = €3500
Avg pension = €1200
Avg APA payout = €500
Majority were age 56‐66
Higher % married/ have
children
Higher level of education
Expect to leave a relatively
large estate/ bequest
Banks are the main channel
Highly concentrated (70% of PHs and premiums collected by top 5 companies)
Group LTC Insurance represents 45% of market
Employers may pay for a portion of premiums
However, only provide coverage while employed
Huge private LTCI market
Subscribers Profile Distribution Group LTC Insurance
Private LTC Market in France
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Features of Individual LTCI
Indemnity policies are dominant
2/3 policies cover heavy & irrecoverable dependency only
Waiting Period & Claims deferred Period
Entry age up to age 75 years
Medical underwriting applies
Simple fixed cash monthly benefit for life
Offers flexibility to subscribers
Easy to understand
Easier to project costs vs benefits tied to service
WP :Nil(accident); 1 year(illness); 3 year (dementia)
DP : 90 days
Private Individual LTC Insurance Product Highlights
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USA
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Established 1965
Eligibility
Medicaid (low/no income & disabled)
Medicare (Age ≥ 65, for those recovering from an acute illness or accident entailing hospitalization)
Benefits
Medicare (limited LTC coverage)
‐ Up to 100 days of care in a skilled nursing facility (SNF) after an acute care episode‐ 100% of first 20 days in SNF, copayment required from day 21‐ 100 home health visits per hospitalization‐ Hospice care at the end of life
Medicaid (broad LTC benefits)
‐ From institutional to home care
Public LTC System in the USA
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Public LTC System in the USAAccording to National Health Expenditure Survey compiled by the centers for Medicare & Medicaid services, the U.S. spent $239 billion on LTC in 2014
79 (33%)
70 (30%)
49 (20%)
7 (3%) 14 (6%)
19 (8%)
Funding of 2014 Long‐Term Care Expenditures (Billions)
Medicaid
Medicare
Out of Pocket
LTC Insurance
Other Insurance
Other
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Product Highlights
Long Term Care policies in USA are customizable on 5 general levels that fit various needs:
Maximum amount of benefit payable (per day, per week, per month)
Length of benefit period
Maximum daily benefit for Home care / Community based care
Waiting Period
Inflation Protection
Provides reimbursement upon use of multiple types of services
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General Information
2 out of 6 ADLs or suffered a
severe cognitive impairment
Bed hold reservation benefit
Durable Medical Equipment Benefit
Respite Care Benefit
World Wide Coverage Benefit
Facility Benefits: nursing facility or residential care
facility
Home and community‐based care benefits
Care Coordinator Benefits
Hospice Care Benefit
Waiver of Premium Benefit
US LTC ProductsComprehensive and Nursing Care & Residential Care Reimbursement
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Private LTC Market in the USAAfter more than two decades of rapid growth, the LTCI industry has undergone significant contraction, both in terms of sales and insurers participating in the market. One area of continued growth in the market is with combination or hybrid product
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500
420
609 600
698
754
362
300 283253 254
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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Individual Market Sales: 1990‐2014 (Thousands)
Source: LifePlans Analysis Based on AHIP, LIMRA and LifePlans Sales Surveys, 1990‐2015
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LTC Insurance Statistics Based on SCOR’s Experience
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Actuarial Modelling – Statistical Data
Depends on age, sex, life expectancy without severe disability
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Depends on age, sex, medical selection effect
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Depends on age sex, time already spent in LTC, the main disease responsible for dependence
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Longevity of active people Incidence of dependence Longevity of dependent people
Three transitional probability laws for a simple total dependency product – increased levels of dependency require much more complicated framework
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Actuarial Modelling – Semi‐Markov Model Used by Scor Global Life
Loss of autonomy
Healthy Dead
= 0,
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Mortality of autonomous individuals1. Insured that have not lost their autonomy (according to the retained definition) and that have not died ‐> Life
expectancy in good health (without incapacity)
2. The mortality in state of autonomy is lower than a “general mortality”
3. An observation on the individual insurance portfolios: the insureds live longer than what could be observed on the
general population or on the official insurance tables
4. The longevity in state of autonomy corresponds to the length of premiums payment
Life Expectancy Male Female
Autonomous General Pop’n Autonomous General Pop‘n
60 y.o. 22.5 20.3 27.1 25.3
65 y.o. 18.5 16.4 22.5 20.9
70 y.o. 14.7 13.0 18.0 16.7
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Loss of Independence/Autonomy ‐ Definitions
« Do it alone without being encouraged » ADL ‐ « YES/NO » ASSESSMENT
Bathing / Toileting Be able to maintain personal hygiene standards
Dressing Be able to dress and to undress, and possibly by wearing appropriate clothing
Eating Be able to serve and to eat food already prepared and made available
Mobility / Walking Be able to move inside the home on flat ground with suitable equipment
Transferring Be able to move from bed to chair and from chair to bed
ContinenceBe able to use toilet or to ensure urinary and faecal continence, including using sanitary bandages or surgical equipment
Total loss of independence = Loss of 3 out of 4 ADL or 4 out of 5 or 4/5 out of 6
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Experience on the mortality of dependents
Disease 65 y.o. 72 y.o. 77 y.o. 82 y.o. 87 y.o.
Dementia 20.3% 36.0% 46.9% 49.8% 47.0%
Cancer 43.7% 26.2% 15.4% 10.1% 6.3%
Cardio‐vascular pathology
16.4% 16.6% 15.5% 12.0% 11.3%
Neuro‐psychiatric disease
14.6% 12.3% 10.1% 7.0% 5.4%
Polypathology 5.1% 8.9% 12.1% 21.1% 29.9%
Description
1. Complex law depending on several parameters (not only age and gender)
2. Various approaches: we retained a model close to the disability one, depending on age at claim and length in the state of dependency
2 – 4 years
2 – 7 years
1 – 6 years
4 months – 2 years
2 – 10 years
Polypathology
Neuro‐psychiatric disease
Cardio‐vascular pathology
Cancer
Dementia
Findings: 1. The causes of LTC depend on age
2. The length in the state of loss of autonomy depends on the initial pathology
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Female: First Year of Mortality rate in LTC
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Men: First Year of Mortality rate in LTC
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Mortality of the first year in LTC
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Mortality of the second year in LTC
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Incidence rate in LTC by Pathology grouping
Source: A semi‐markov model with pathologies for LTC insurance, Guillaume Biessy, SCOR Global Life
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Experience on the incidence rates: mostly women are concerned
Example: at 70 y.o. +50% and at 75 y.o. +25%
Example: at 85 y.o. +5% and at 90 y.o. +10%Higher incidence among “older” women
UnderlyingDistinct Processes
Higher incidence among “young” male
Higher mortality for male than for female
Dependent women live longer
A higher number of dependent women than dependent men at the same age
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Conclusion
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Conclusion
Government initiatives needed boost interest and success for private insurance
LTC is one of the greatest generational challenges as population ages
There are good references and benchmarks to learn from other countries.
LTC risks can be managed by tapping into expertise and research available.
You don’t have to be great to start, you have to start to be great.
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