session 1 3 orourke

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Presentation to National Academy of SciencesCommittee on Naval Engineering in the 21 Centuryst

Some Potential Technology Implications of the Navy’s Future

Ronald O’RourkeCongressional Research Service

National Academy of Sciences2100 C St., NW, Washington, DC

January 13, 2010



Disclaimer

— These views are my own and do not necessarily reflect

the views of CRS, LoC, or Congress

Introduction – my background

— CRS naval issues analyst since 1984

— Role of CRS

— Responsible for tracking Navy strategy, plans,programs, budgets, technology, industrial base, and

related issues, particularly ship acquisition

— Reports, briefings, testimony for Congress

— Magazine/journal articles and presentations to

government, industry, and academic audiences



Outline

— Some potential technology implications of

— Navy’s future operating environment

— future Navy operations

— Navy’s future resource situation

— Note: some potential implications

— not intended as a comprehensive listing

— no particular order



Navy’s future operating environment




— Advanced above-surface anti-access weapons,

including:— ASBMs (China reportedly developing)— advanced ASCMs— advanced SAMs— advanced tactical aircraft




— Advanced below-surface anti-access weapons,

including:— modern submarines— wake-homing torpedoes— modern (as well as older) mines




— Advanced below-surface anti-access weapons,

including:— modern submarines— wake-homing torpedoes— modern (as well as older) mines

— Technologies for a distributed, sensor-intensive (vs.platform-intensive) approach to ASW

— Anti-torpedo torpedo (ATT) to counter wake homers— Soft-kill options against wake-homers— Improved MCM technologies, particularly for

— faster MCM— improved MCM in very shallow water/surf zone




— Vulnerability of, or uncertain access to, regional land

bases




— Vulnerability of, or uncertain access to, regional land

bases

— Technologies for reducing reliance on regional landbases for fuel, supplies, and repairing battle damage— ships with increased fuel and supplies

— ships with reduced fuel use and smaller crews— integrated electric drive— technologies to reduce crew size

— nuclear power for surface ships other than CVNs— ships with greater survivability




— Cyberwarfare and ASAT




— Cyberwarfare and ASAT

— Improved defensive and perhaps offensive cyberwarfarecapabilities organic to the fleet

— Ability to continue operating effectively if systems and

networks are degraded or eliminated by cyber attackand/or ASAT— redundancy— rapid reconstitution— capabilities for stand-alone operations




— Possible adversary use of nuclear weapons




— Possible adversary use of nuclear weapons

— Ships, aircraft, and systems hardened against nuclear-weapon effects such as EMP, thermal, overpressure

— Shipboard citadels and decontamination systems




— Terrorist and irregular-warfare threats to forward-

deployed Navy ships




— Terrorist and irregular-warfare threats to forward-

deployed Navy ships

— Improved technologies for detecting and counteringshore-based ASCMs, smaller aircraft, small boats, mini-subs, mines, swimmers, rockets, and mortars

— lethal and non-lethal weapons for countering smallboats

— sensors, barriers, and lethal and non-lethalweapons for countering swimmers

— sensors and weapons for cost-effectively

countering rockets and mortars— topside equipment that can withstand attacks by

rockets and mortars




— Policymaker focus on energy use and climate change

— recently announced Navy goals




— Policymaker focus on energy use and climate change

— recently announced Navy goals

— Technologies for reducing Navy’s dependence onpetroleum-based fuel, and for moving Navy toward goalof carbon-neutral operations at sea

— wider use of features for improving hydrodynamicperformance (e.g., bow bulbs, stern flaps, hullcoatings)— effective, environmentally friendly coatings

— hybrid electric drive and integrated electric drive

— higher-efficiency gas turbines— fuel cells— more energy-efficient shipboard equipment— biofuels— nuclear power for surface ships other than CVNs

— kite-assisted propulsion



Future Navy operations




— Possibly operating outside range of anti-access

weapons




— Possibly operating outside range of anti-access

weapons

— Longer-ranged manned aircraft and UAVs/UCAVs— e.g., UCAS-N

— Longer-ranged strike/NSFS weapons— e.g., rail gun for NSFS

— Off-board sensors and networking for longer-rangedsurveillance, targeting, and damage assessment




— Expanding sea-based BMD operations




— Expanding sea-based BMD operations

— Defense against Chinese ASBMs— improved shipboard radars and other sensors— networking with off-board radars— DEWs, particularly lasers

— terminal-phase defense against ASBMs— soft-kill options for countering ASBMs

— European BMD operations— Integration with land-based European BMD

systems— SM-3 Block IIB




— Irregular warfare and counter-terrorism operations




— Irregular warfare and counter-terrorism operations

— Improved ship-based ISR capabilities, including UAVs— persistent ISR— UAVs on submarines

— Improved expeditionary EW, SIGINT, counter-IED,EOD, and riverine capabilities

— Fast-to-target, low-collateral-damage strike weapons

— Improved capabilities for covertly inserting andrecovering SOF— e.g., ASDS follow-on




— Anti-piracy operations




— Anti-piracy operations

— Improved ISR capabilities— persistent— improved discrimination of pirates from non-pirates— lower cost

— Non-lethal weapons for countering pirates




— Partner capacity-building operations




— Partner capacity-building operations

— Improved facilities for shipboard education and training— built into ships— modular and portable




— Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR)

operations




— Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR)

operations

— Improved ship-to-shore transfer of HADR-relatedequipment and supplies

— Equipment for using ships to provide emergency power ashore




— Increased surface-ship operations in the Arctic

— diminishment of Arctic sea ice




— Increased surface-ship operations in the Arctic

— diminishment of Arctic sea ice

— ships with ice-strengthened hulls

— systems and components designed to operate in

extreme cold

— aircraft fuel for operations in extreme cold

— communication and navigation systems for supporting

high-latitude operations

— Arctic search and rescue capabilities— e.g., for responding to a large cruise ship in distress



Navy’s future resource situation

— Ship and aircraft procurement affordability




— Ship and aircraft procurement affordability

— Greater use of common hulls/airframes, systems, andcomponents

— Improved design for producibility/production engineering

— Improved materials

— Improved construction processes and methods— e.g., NSRP

— Technologies to reduce size of ship radars andintegrated electric drive systems

— Technologies to reduce ship crew size




— Reduced ship and aircraft procurement rates




— Reduced ship and aircraft procurement rates

— Longer ship and aircraft service lives— more-rugged construction/more-durable materials— greater growth margins— open-architecture combat systems and physical

open architecture to facilitate modernizationover long lives— improved condition tracking and assessment

— Greater percentage of ship life spent on deployment— more-rugged construction/more durable materials

— features facilitating long-duration deploymentswith crew rotation (aka Sea Swap) and/or multiplecrewing

— Increased use of UVs to extend ship capabilities




— O&S costs crowding out funding for procurement




— O&S costs crowding out funding for procurement

— Ships with reduced crew sizes

— Ships and aircraft with open-architecture combatsystems and physical open architecture to reduce life-

cycle modernization costs

— Ships and aircraft with improved materials to reducelife-cycle maintenance costs

— Increased use of UVs to as substitutes for mannedplatforms



Thank you

session 1 3 orourke

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