september 2013 eco dev
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Indicators for
Economic Developers: Where
is our Economy Going?
Taggert J. Brooks, PhDAssociate Professor of Economics
University of Wisconsin-La Crosse
I HAVE NO IDEAREALLY
Reference Points MatterANCHORS AWAY
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
240.0
Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13
Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices
Phoenix
Minneapolis
7 Rivers Region
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12
Unemployment Rates
La Crosse
MSA
WI
US
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
7.5
9.0
10.5
12.0
Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12
Unemployment Rates
MN
WI
US
UNEMPLOYMENT RATESBY COUNTY
EMPLOYMENT GROWTHBY STATE
2450.0
2500.0
2550.0
2600.0
2650.0
2700.0
2750.0
2800.0
2850.0
2900.0
2950.0
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Min
neso
ta N
on-F
arm
Em
plo
yment:
Thousa
nds
The Dayton Promise: 240,000 Jobs
Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
2550.0
2600.0
2650.0
2700.0
2750.0
2800.0
2850.0
2900.0
2950.0
3000.0
3050.0
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Wis
consi
n N
on-F
arm
Em
plo
yment:
Thousa
nds
The Walker Promise: 250,000 Jobs
Source: BLS, http://goo.gl/lE69o
UncertaintyELIMINATING POLICY UNCERTAINTY
FISCAL DRAGPOLICY UNCERTAINTY
The Fiscal Cliff
THE FEDERAL RESERVEMONETARY POLICY UNCERTAINTY
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
1/3/2007 1/3/2008 1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch
Liquidity to Key Credit Markets
Lending to Financial Institutions
Long Term Treasury Purchases
Traditional Security Holdings
Tri
llions
Bernanke decides to talk “taper”
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13
Number of Building Permits in La Crosse MSA
Total Permits
Single Unit Permits
THANKS.
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
1/3/2007 1/3/2008 1/3/2009 1/3/2010 1/3/2011 1/3/2012 1/3/2013
Fed Agency Debt Mortgage-Backed Securities Purch
Liquidity to Key Credit Markets
Lending to Financial Institutions
Long Term Treasury Purchases
Traditional Security Holdings
Tri
llions
Explicit 2% Target
Announced
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
April
2002
October
2003
March
2006
February
2008***
February
2009***
August
2010***
Febraury
2012***
August
2013***
7 Rivers Consumer Sentiment
*** Survey moves to web
7 Rivers
National
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2008Q1 2009Q4 2011Q3 2013Q2
Change in GDP since Q1 2008US
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
“
”
If employment & prices are strong,
We can give up QE before long,
So we're tapering it,
But just by a bit,
In case we turn out to be wrong.
FRIDAY, AUGUST 16, 2013
Advance Draft of Next FOMC Statement from:
Dr. Goose (www.limericksecon.com)