Eco-Congregation

Local Networks Seminar

26 September 2015

John FergusonEcoideaM Ltd

What will we cover?

Some of the fundamental issues: Climate change Resources Air quality Energy Water Food

…… we won’t cover biodiversity and habitats, desertification, soil erosion, soil contamination, marine pollution, nano-technology, genetic engineering and a few other things that also matter!!

4 Workshops.

Why is it Important….just a reminder?

From the fringes to the centre of concern in less than 30 years.

Population / Resources / Climate / Energy / Water / Food / Health / Infrastructure / Global Financial .

A changing global economy – the fall of nations – an inexorable process – managing change with the wisdom of understanding history and hindsight.

If ever there was a time to re-think our priorities and re-vision and re-engineer our future this is probably a good time to really get to grips with it.

Is good stewardship of God’s good creation not part of every Christian’s duty?

The fundamentals of survival and a dignified life are unchanged since the beginning of time?

Environment Infrastructure Society

Air to breathe

Water / Resources

Food to eat

Air to breathe

Water / Resources

Food to eat

Shelter

Services

Industrial systems

Shelter

Services

Industrial systems

Rule of Law

Security

Spirit

Rule of Law

Security

Spirit

Thomas Malthus

increases in geometric increases in geometric progression, the progression, the resources to sustain this resources to sustain this growth do not. Thus, if growth do not. Thus, if population grows too population grows too much faster than food much faster than food production, this growth production, this growth is checked by famine, is checked by famine, disease, and war.disease, and war.

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)InIn ““An Essay on the Principles of An Essay on the Principles of PopulationPopulation””, , published in 1798,published in 1798, Thomas Thomas Malthus argued that while populationMalthus argued that while population

18000

15

30

45

1850 1900 1950 2000Source: A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (OECD, Paris, 1995).

Economy

Population

Rel

ativ

e to

th

e 18

20 le

vel

World’s population, a little over a billion at the time of Malthus, has multiplied about seven-fold since then.

Measured in inflation-adjusted dollars, world’s total output, now about $40 trillion, was about $700 billion at the time of Malthus.

Clearly, economic growth has been more strongly exponential than that of the demand (population growth) that created it.

The Carbon Challenge - UK

Max Stretch Barriers

Power 5 MtCO2Full decarbonisation. Peaks met by

low-carbon storage.

6 MtCO2Full decarbonisation. Peaks met by

unabated gas.

10 MtCO2Full decarbonisation. Peaks met by unabated gas. Inflexible demand.

Buildings 0 MtCO2Full roll-out of EE, HPs and DH.

Remainder met by resistive.

12 MtCO2Extensive roll-out of EE. Full roll-out of HPs and DH. Rest met by gas boilers.

28 MtCO2Barriers restrict take-up of disruptive EE,

HPs and DH. Gas still meets 25%.

Surface Transport

2 MtCO2All cars and vans are EVs.

All HGVs use H2.

6 MtCO2All cars and vans are EVs.

75% HGVs use H2.

25 MtCO2Late take-up or focus on PHEVs means

30% liquid fuel remains for cars and vans. 50% HGVs use H2.

Industry 28 MtCO2Full deployment of CCS and

electrification where possible.

68 MtCO2No (expensive) electrification, and CCS

not applied to refineries or cement.

87 MtCO2No electrification and very limited use of

CCS.

Non-CO236 MtCO2e

All on-farm measures deployed. Landfill eliminated by 2020, reduced food waste and livestock products.

48 MtCO2eAll on-farm measures deployed. Landfill reduced beyond EU Landfill Directive,

‘simple’ reductions in food waste.

51 MtCO2eAll on-farm measures deployed, EU

Landfill Directive met. No waste, reduction, diet change or F-gas ban.

Aviation & Shipping

33 MtCO2DfT low aviation scenario.CCC low shipping scenario.

45 MtCO2Central scenarios: Aviation at 2005 levels. Shipping a third below 2010.

68 MtCO2DfT high aviation scenario.CCC high shipping scenario.

Biomass CCS

-45 MtCO2Biomass use with CCS prioritised as most effective at reducing emissions. [Includes lifecycle emissions.]

Potential pathways 2010-2050 – all require extensive deployment of measures and development of options

PowerPower

BuildingsBuildings

TransportTransport

IndustryIndustry

Non-CO2Non-CO2

Aviation and shipping

Aviation and shipping

2010s2010s 2030s2030s 2040s2040s2020s2020s

Further expansion and decarbonise mid-merit/peak

Low-carbon heatCommercial Residential Hard-to-treat

Roll out low-carbon vehicles to fleet

More on-farm measures, F-gases, reduce waste and

diet impact?

Efficiency

Decarbonise baseload

EV penetration up;

Early H2 adoptionEfficiency

CCS, electrification and other fuel switching? Product substitution?

Efficiency

Efficiency on farms, divert waste from

landfillOperational measures, new plane/ship efficiency,

whilst demand grows (though possibly constrained)

EU - Waste

Increase Resource Use EfficiencyUse less – recycle more

Industrial Symbiosis

Analogy for Industrial Symbiosis:

Producers and users of waste materials are the mushrooms connected by the mycelia of material interchange.

•Perhaps thousands of different material being exchanged between producers and users.•Where there is no apparent use this forms a research area to find a productive use!

Investing in resource efficiency & eco-innovation boosts competitiveness

Energy – 10 Key Messages. (Trilema: Security – Equity – Sustainability)

1. Energy system complexity will increase by 2050.2. Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply.3. Energy demand expected ot outstrip population growth.4. The energy mix in 2050 will mainly still be fossil based.5. Regional priorities differ: there is no ‘one-size-fits- all’ solution to the energy

trilemma.6. The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450ppm target without

unacceptable carbon prices.7. A low-carbon future is not only linked to renewables: CC(U)S is important and

consumer behaviour needs changing.8. CC(U)S technology, solar energy and energy storage are the key uncertainties

up to 2050.9. Balancing the energy trilemma means making difficult choices.10.Functioning energy markets require investments and regional integration to

deliver benefits to all consumers.11.Energy policy should ensure that energy and carbon markets deliver.

UK Energy Use Break Down

The Global Energy System

Global Air Quality 2001 – 2006 (PM) ： Global PM2.5 Map

UK Electricity Scenarios

Who uses it?

Global Water. Circa 4x1020 Gallons

Per capita water availability

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1960 1990 2025

Africa

Asia

MEast & NAfrica

Th

ou

sa

nd

m3

World

Water Scarcity.

Geopolitics of Water

Driver - Food

Food Futures:Rethinking UK Strategy

Over the next few decades, the global food system will come under renewed pressure from the combined effects of seven fundamental factors: population growth, the nutrition transition, energy, land, water, labour and climate change. The combined effects will create constraints on food supply and if action is not taken, there is a real potential for demand growth to outstrip increases in global food production.

A Chatham House Report – January 2009

Food Waste

Food:

£420 per annum per family = taking1/5 cars off the road …..and people starve to death

every single day….one down side of affluence…

http://www.lovefoodhatewaste.com/

Food – Price Inflation

Spending on food

Who eats the most!?

What is the quality of what we eat?

URBAN FOOD HUBS

Supporting City food production – short supply chains.

Food Production - On roof tops, Building basements, derelict land and standard industrial sheds in the City.

Short supply chain foods increasing city self sufficiency.

A Final Thought!

““Nature has enough for our need, but not for our greedNature has enough for our need, but not for our greed””. .

Mahatma GandhiMahatma Gandhi

Be joyful…not worrisome:We are to be stewardsWe are to love and care for God’s creation but not to worship it

……..above all…do not despair…….we take with us a gospel of restoration, peace and hope….!

Where do we start to make a difference?

In general terms – technology innovation – behaviour change – national – international policy – trade agreements – market drivers etc.

More than 50% of global population lives in cities.. Generating more than 50% of global economic output. More than 70% of global carbon attributed to cities.

Sustainable Cities initiatives – Transition Towns movement etc…

Communities (however define) ultimately are what matter and a good place to start.

Role of the Church: Support Encourage Lead by example Innovate in the gaps where possible – practical simple things can

make a big difference

Workshops

• Workshop 1 Topic:Building a Framework for Action on – Community Renewables including Energy Efficiency

and Fuel Poverty?

• Workshop 2 Topic:Building a Framework for Action on – Waste: reduce, reuse, recycle

• Workshop 3 Topic:Building a Framework for Action on – Local Food Production andFood Poverty

• Workshop 4 Topic:Building a Framework for Action on – Conserving the Local Environment

Methodology

Task 1 for each works-shop: Identify practical activity ideas for each topic that are deliverable (at a community or national level. Small or large).

Task 2 for each workshop: List resources – advice – training – other events - guidance etc that would help deliver these ideas.

Task 3 for each work-shop: Ranking of ideas – done at end of all workshops. Use of coloured dots.

There will also be a separate flip chart called: ‘’Big Ideas – Random Stuff’’