“Security of Supply in the

Energy Sector”ENC 2000

Lille, October 7, 2002

Temperature Rise in the 20th Century

Source: IPCC Report 1996

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Deviations from the global average temperature over the period 1951 - 1980

Deg

rees

(C

elsi

us)

Possible Temperature Developmentin the 21st. Century

14

15

16

17

18

19

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

1980 1990-0,2

0

0,5

Deg

ree

Cel

sius

Source: UNEP

1,0°C

> 2,0°C

< 5,8°C

How the Greenhouse Effect is affecting the Weather

The numbers indicate changes caused by a doubling of carbon dioxide emissions: “5“ signifies extremely heavy rainfall at five times the current frequency. This increases the risk of flooding depending on topographyEvery eight years, many areas of Europe could expect to be hit by heavy rainfall.

1

2

2

2

Less Equivalent X 2 X 5 X 6 X 71 2 3 5 7

1

2

23

3

5

5

5

5

5

5

2

7

7

Source: FDT 31.01.2002

Global Petroleum Production 1930 - 2050

conventional petroleum (incl. very small part of fat oil)

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

? ? ??

expectedmid-depletion

point

expectedmid-depletion

point

Source: Udall and Andrews, 1999 und Hiller, 1999

unconven-tional

petroleum

Maximum oil productionto be expected

between 2010 - 20

Energy Ellipse

Source: Kemp G.; Harkavy R.E.: Strategie Geography and the Changing; Middle East, Washington, 1997

About 70 per cent of the Oil Reserves and

almost 40 per cent of the Natural Gas

Reserves worldwide are in the Persian Gulf States as well

as around the Caspian Sea.

Saudi-Arabia

IranIraq

Kazakhstan

Norway

Russia

Netherlands

AlgeriaEgypt

Libya

Romania

Germany

Ukraina

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Great Britain

France

1.000 km2.000 km

3.000 km

Natural Gas Deposits in 1999

Norway

Russia

Netherlands

AlgeriaEgypt

Libya

Ukraina

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Great Britain

1.000 km2.000 km

3.000 km

Natural Gas Deposits in 2010

Natural Gas Deposits in 2025

Russia

Turkmenistan

1.000 km2.000 km

3.000 km

World Energy Consumption up to 2060

Gas, Oil, Coal

Nuclear power

Trad. Biomass

Renewable Energy

0

500

1000

1500

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Exajoules

exa = 1018 1 Exajoule = 34,12 Mio t SKE

- Scenario: Sustained Growth

Source: Deutsche Shell