SEAN-CC Regional Training Workshop: Building Capacity on Access to Funds for Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives

Mozaharul AlamRegional Climate Change CoordinatorRegional Office for Asia and the Pacific (ROAP)United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Climate change adaptation priorities in SEA countries

Climate Change: reading the signs - temperature

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Global mean temperature has increased 0.76oC during 1906-2005

The average temperature in Southeast Asia has increased 0.1–0.3°C per decade over the last 50 years

Increase in temperature varies by countries – highest change observed in Singapore

Source: IPCC, 2007

Climate Change: reading the signs – precipitation

Indonesia: decrease in annual rainfall during recent decades in some areas

Philippines: increase in annual rainfall and in the number of rainy days

Singapore: decrease in annual rainfall in the past three decades

Thailand: decrease annual rainfall for the last five decades

Viet Nam: decrease in monthly rainfall in July-August and increase in September to November

Precipitation in Southeast Asia trended downward from 1960to 2000.

Source: IPCC, 2007

Climate Change: reading the signs – sea level rise

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Sea level has risen at the rate 1.8 mm/year since 1961 and 3.1 mm/year since 1993.

IPCC estimated sea levels may rise 18cm - 59cm in the coming century.

The Greenland ice sheet, which could raise sea levels by 6m if it melted away, is currently losing more than 100 cubic km a year-faster than can be explained by natural melting.

In SEA, sea levels have risen 1–3 millimeters per year and projected to rise by 70 cm by 2100

Climate Change: reading the signs – extreme events

Extreme Events

Key Trends

Heat waves Increase in hot days and warm nights, and decrease in cold days and nights between 1961 and 1998

Intense rains and floods

Increased occurrence of extreme rains causing flash floods in Viet Nam; landslides and floods in 1990 and 2004 in the Philippines, and floods in Cambodia in 2000, 2011

Droughts Droughts normally associated with El Niño years in Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam; droughts in 1997 and 1998 causing massive crop failures and water shortages as well as forest fires in various parts of Indonesia, Lao PDR, and Philippines

Typhoons On average, 20 cyclones cross the Philippine, about eight or nine making landfall each year; an average increase of 4.2 in the frequency of cyclones entering the Philippine during the period 1990—2003

Source: IPCC, 2007

Climate Change: reading the signs – projection of temperature

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Global mean temperature projected to be increased by 1.8 to 5.4°C by 2100

The mean surface air temperature in SEA would increase between 0.75–0.87°C by 2039, 1.32–2.01°C by 2069, and 1.96–3.77°C by 2100 (IPCC, 2007)

Source: IPCC, 2007

Reading the signs – projection of temperature

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Indonesia: increase 2.1°C and 3.4°C by 2100 under the B2 and A2 scenarios, respectively.

Philippines: increase of 1.2–3.9°C by 2080, using all the IPCC emission scenarios.

Singapore: similar to the projected global mean temperature rise of 2.5°C with a range of 1.7–4.4°C.

Thailand: increase 2–4°C by the end of this century

Viet Nam: increase in temperature of 2–4°C by 2100

Cambodia: increase in mean annual temperatures of 0.3-0.6°C by 2025, 0.7-2.7°C by the 2060s and of 1.4-4.3 °C by the 2090s

Reading the signs – projection of temperature

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Source: WB, 2013

4oC Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia

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Agriculture

Yields of cereals crops could decrease by up to 5% across South East Asia (best-case scenario) and reduction in yield may be as much as 30% or higher. Any reduction in rice yield could be very significant for large rice producers such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.

Water Availability

Climate change may affect the Southeast Asian monsoon and the seasonal pattern of rainfall. Incidence of drought will increase but this does not mean decrease of average annual amount of rainfall.

4oC Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia

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Sea Level Rise

Highly populated and low-lying delta areas along the Southeast Asian coast are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise such as Bangkok Manila, Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City.

Marine Ecosystem

Could be fundamentally altered by ocean acidification and could have a significant impact on fisheries.

Many communities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and the Philippines rely on fisheries for their income

4oC Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia

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Health

More incidences of heat-related illness, including heat stress, strokes and cardiovascular disorders. City populations (such as in Jakarta, Manila, Bangkok) may be particularly at risk from rising temperatures.

Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever may change in geographical spread, and the duration of the transmission seasons could lengthen.

4oC Global Temperature Rise: impacts on Southeast Asia

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Mekong Delta

The global average sea-level could rise by up to 80 cm by the end of the century and such sea-level rises could submerge the lowest parts of the delta

It could also increase the threat of saline intrusion and storm surge damage to rice crops across the region.

Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia

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Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009

Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia (2000)

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Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009

Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)

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Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009

Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia

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Source: Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia A. Francisco, 2009

Example of Vulnerability

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(a) Myanmar’s overall climate change vulnerability index (taking into account areas and socio-economic sectors most at risk); and (b) climate change vulnerability index for Myanmar considering population density.

Example of Vulnerability

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SEA Countries Responses

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Least Developed Countries: Formulated National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)

National Communication: All SEA Countries, except Brunei Darussalam

Technology Need Assessment: Most SEA Countries Emergence of new institution: Setting up national

institution at higher level to address climate change.

Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies

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Agriculture: Promotion of locally relevant technologies, climate-resilient

rice crop varieties, crop diversification, improvement of technologies and ex/in-situ conservation of plant genetic resources - rural and subsistence farmers (Myanmar, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand)

Development and improvement of small-scale aquaculture ponds, promotion of household integrated farming, community irrigation systems, soil conservation (Cambodia)

Promote secondary professions to improve the livelihoods of farmers affected by climate change induced natural disasters (Lao PDR)

Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies

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Agriculture: Development of milkfish farming technology, cultivation

engineering of beef cattle (Indonesia) Precision farming technology (Thailand) Plant genetics/plant breeding, shifting from rice to upland

grains, and shifting from triple cropping to double cropping and a shrimp/fish/poultry crop (Vietnam)

Precision water management and drainage to ensure sufficient water availability for both agriculture and other uses, precision farming technology (Malaysia, Thailand)

Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies

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Agriculture: CC resilience of agriculture and fisheries production and

distribution systems, and communities (Philippines) Climate-sensitive agriculture and fisheries policies, plans

and programs formulated. Enhanced capacity for CCA and DRR of government,

farming and fishing communities and industry.

Water Resources: Constructing small-scale water reservoir (flood control and

increasing water supplies for local communities) (Myanmar, Cambodia)

Rehabilitation/construction/improvement of a multiple-use reservoir, dam, flood protection dikes, waterways, drainage and water gates (Cambodia, Singapore, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Vietnam)

Rainwater harvesting, wells for domestic water supply, household water treatment and safe storage (Cambodia, Vietnam)

Enabling policy, knowledge and capacity for IWRM, water supply and demand management of water improved (Philippines, Malaysia)

Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies

Water Resources: Awareness raising on water and water resource

management, strengthen institutional and human resource capacities related to water and water resource management (Lao PDR)

Water resources model - Groundwater flow modeling with MODFLOW and related programs (Indonesia)

Networking (via pipes or canals) and management of infrastructures (Malaysia)

Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies

Forest: Reforestation in degraded/sensitive forest areas, degraded

watershed areas for ecosystem resilience and rural livelihoods (Myanmar)

Continue the slash and burn eradication programme and permanent job creation program (Lao PDR)

Strengthen capacity of village forestry volunteers in forest planting, caring and management techniques as well as the use of village forests (Lao PDR)

Plant science/plant genetics and agroforestry

Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies

Biodiversity: Buffering marine habitats and sustaining fish populations

through community-based MPA management and ecosystem sensitive fishery practices (Myanmar)

Mainstreaming ecosystem-based climate change adaptation for buffering rural communities into policy, planning and relevant projects (Myanmar)

Management and conservation of protected areas and key biodiversity areas (Philippines)

Capacity for integrated ecosystem-based management approach in protected areas and key biodiversity areas (Philippines)

Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies

Coastal Zone: Adaptation to climate change through Integrated Coastal Zone

Management (ICZM) (Myanmar, Vietnam) Mangrove reforestation, restoration for resilient ecosystems

and rural livelihoods (Myanmar, Cambodia) Community and household water supply in coastal provinces

(Cambodia) Rehabilitation of multiple-use canals, coastal protection

infrastructure, reclamation (Cambodia, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam)

Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies

Cross Cutting - Early Warning System: Improving weather observation capacity - weather radar

system (Myanmar, Lao PDR) Developing (flood and drought) early warning system - local

communities (Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Vietnam) Vegetation planting for flood and windstorm protection

(Cambodia) Strengthening of community disaster preparedness and

response capacity (Cambodia) Strengthen the capacity of the National Disaster Management

Committees (Lao PDR)

Adaptation Priorities: sectors and technologies

Multiple sector and issues: responses inter-linkage

Environmental Sustainabilitysustaining the provision of ecosystem services

(provision of food water, fuel, climate regulation)

Disaster Risk Reduction(natural e.g. flood, drought,

cyclone and storm surges,earthquake etc; man-made e.g.

oil spillage, nuclear etc.)

Climate Change(temperature rise; variationin rainfall and precipitation;changes in sea level;salinity intrusion)

• Improvement of early warning systems;

• Improvement of modeling and forecasting of short-term and long-term phenomenon;

• Development of drought, flood, salinity resilient crop variety

• Improvement of systematic observation and monitoring;

• Improve local level plan, design and implementation;

• Information and communication;• Integrated coastal zone management;• Integrated watershed management;• Conservation, protection and

management of ecosystems and services.

• Ecosystem based adaptation (coastal, mountain, dry land, river basin);

• Reduction of emission from deforestation and forest degradation;

• Management of marine ecosystem (blue carbon)

• Multi-hazard and risk mapping;• Local level capacity building for

disaster preparedness and environmental management

Alam, M., 2011

Adaptation: Estimated costs per sector

Sector Study

UNFCCC (2007) Parry et al (2009) World Bank (2010)a

Agriculture, forestry, fisheries

$7 $7 $6

Water resources $9 Much higher than other two studies

$11

Human health $5 At least $10 $3

Coastal zones $5 $10 $29

Infrastructure $22-41 $65-154 $29

Extreme events $2 $2 $7

Fisheries $2 $2 $2

Ecosystems $2 $33-40a $2

Total $54-73 >$129-225 $80-90b

Adaptation: Distribution

Source: Climate Funds Update 2012

THANK YOU !

For more information:Mozaharul Alam

Regional Climate Change CoordinatorUnited Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Email: mozaharul.alam@unep.orgWeb: www.unep.org/climatechange