climate change information and knowledge management...

Support to Monitoring PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh

General Economics Division, Planning Commission, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh &

UNDP Bangladesh

Policy Study on

The Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Povertyand Economic Growth and the Options of Coping

with Adverse Effect of Climate Change in Bangladesh

Published by :

Support to Monitoring PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh

General Economics Division, Planning Commission,

Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh &

UNDP Bangladesh

Policy Study on

Research Team

Dr. Atiq Rahman, Team LeaderMr. Mozaharul Alam. Coordinator and Adaptation ExpertMr. Khandaker Mainuddin, Poverty Assessment SpecialistMd. Liaquat Ali, Natural Resource Management SpecialistMr. S.M. Alauddin, Social Development SpecialistMr. Md. Golam Rabbani, Water and Infrastructure SpecialistDr. Md. Muslem Uddin Miah, Agriculture SpecialistMr. Md. Rabi Uzzaman, Assistant Study Coordinator Mr. Shah Mohammad Ashraful Amin, Disaster Assessment Expert

Publication: May 2009

The Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty andEconomic Growth and the Options of Copingwith Adverse Effect of Climate Change in Bangladesh

The analysis, findings & recommendations of this study do not necessarily reflect the views of General Economics Division, Planning Commission and United Nations Development Programme, rather with which the duly research institution is concerned.

The General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission initiated Policy Studies relating to MDGs under its UNDP assisted project 'Support to Monitoring PRS and MDGs in Bangladesh'. Policy studies were felt necessary to support informed and evidence based policy and strategy making for development planning. In the first phase, three topics were selected for the policy studies. One of these three studies is 'The Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options of Coping with Adverse Effect of Climate Change in Bangladesh'. This study was outsourced to 'Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)'.

The study examines the global initiatives on climate change and points out various aspects of climate change regarding poverty and economic growth and ways of coping with its adverse effects in Bangladesh. It projects that climate change could affect more than 70 million people of Bangladesh due to its geographic location, low elevation, high population density, poor infrastructure, high levels of poverty and high dependency on natural resources.

The study identifies areas that need to be given priority by the Government of Bangladesh and other concerns. It recommends that Government of Bangladesh should consider scientific climate models and IPCC (Inter-government Panel on the Climate Change) reports as the basis to prepare country specific climate action plans in line with the sectoral projections / policies / plans for climate adaptation purposes. The Study suggests implementation of the national climate strategy and action plans particularly in the area of food security, social protection, human health, infrastructure, knowledge management and research, capacity building and institutional strengthening, in the context of poverty reduction and economic growth.

We hope that the study would be useful in policy making in the evolving climate change mitigation and adaptation program for Bangladesh. We express our appreciation to BCAS for carrying out the study on behalf of GED. We would also like to thank UNDP for supporting GED in undertaking this policy study.

National Project Director, Support to Monitoring PRS and MDGs in BangladeshGeneral Economics Division, Planning CommissionGovernment of the People's Republic of Bangladesh

Foreword

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary xiii

1. Background 1

1.1 Climate Change and Millennium Development Goals 3

1.2 Climate and Climate Change in Bangladesh 4

2. The Study 7

2.1 Objectives of the Project 9

2.2 Scope of Work 9

3. Conceptual Framework, Methodology and Tools 11

3.1 Conceptual Framework: Understanding and Framing Linkage between Poverty and Climate Change 13

3.1.1 Climate Change 13

3.1.2 Impacts and Vulnerability 13

3.1.3 Review of PRSP and MDGs in the Context of Climate Change 13

3.2 Strategy to Deal with Adverse Effects of Climate Change 14

3.2.1 Reduction of Exposure and Sensitivity 14

3.2.2 Enhance Adaptive Capacity of Vulnerable Sectors and Communities 14

3.3 Analytical Methods and Tools 15

3.3.1 Assessment of Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth 15

3.3.1.1 Analysis of Poverty Database 15

3.3.1.2 Assessment of Impacts on Key Sectors and by Regions 15

3.3.1.3 Interview with Key Experts 16

3.3.1.4 Workshops 16

3.3.2 Formulation of Strategies and Policy Choices 16

3.3.2.1 Formulation of Draft Strategies and Policy Choices 16

3.3.2.2 Workshop and Finalization of Strategies 16

4. Climate Change, I pacts and vulnerability – Global and Regional Context 17

4.1 Climate Change - Global Context 19

4.1.1 Impacted Sectors: Freshwater Resources 19

4.1.2 Ecosystem 19

4.1.3 Food, Fibre & Forest Product 19

4.1.4 Coastal & Low Lying Areas 20

4.1.5 Industry and Human Settlement 20

4.1.6 Health and Nutrition 20

4.2 Climate Change - Regional Context 20

5. Climate Change – Bangladesh 23

5.1 Climate Change Studies Bangladesh 25

5.2 Present and Future Scenario of Climate 26

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5.2.1 Observed Changes 26

5.2.1.1 Temperature 26 5.2.1.2 Rainfall 26 5.2.2 Future Climate Change Scenario 27 5.3 Changes in Sea Level and Salinity Intrusion 29 5.4 Extreme Climatic Events 31 5.4.1 Changes in Flood Frequency 32 5.4.2 Changes in Cyclone and Storm Surges 34

5.4.3 Changes in Drought 35

6. Bangladesh: Impacts of and Vulnerabilities to Climate Change 39

6.1 Context of Vulnerability 41 6.2 Impacts on Crop Agriculture 42 6.2.1 Existing Impacts – Perception 42 6.2.2 Future Impacts – Perception 46 6.2.3 Future Impacts – Model Result 47 6.3 Fisheries 48 6.3.1 Existing Impacts – Perception 48 6.3.2 Future Impacts 48 6.4 Livestock 49 6.5 Forestry 49 6.6 Water Supply and Sanitation 50 6.7 Industry and Infrastructure 51 6.8 Health 52 6.8.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Health- Perception 53 6.8.2 Impacts of Climate Change on Health- observed changes 53

6.9 Education 55

7. Climate Change, Poverty and Economic Growth 59

7.1 Distribution of Poverty 61

7.2 Intensity and Severity of Poverty 63

7.3 Climate Change Impacts on Poverty and Economic Growth 64

7.3.1 Agriculture 64

7.3.2 Fisheries 65

7.3.3 Livestock 66

7.3.4 Forestry 66

7.3.5 Water and Sanitation 67

7.3.6 Health 68

7.3.7 Education 68

7.4 Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth 68

7.4.1 Impacts of Hazards on Sectors 69

7.4.2 Impacts of Hazards on GDP 70

7.4.3 Impacts of Flood on Different Types of Livelihoods 72

7.4.3.1 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Khulna Division 72

7.4.3.2 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Chittagong Division 72

7.4.3.3 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Rajshahi Division 72

7.4.3.4 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Dhaka Division 72

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7.4.3.5 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Sylhet Division 73

7.4.3.6 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Barisal Division 73

7.4.3.7 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Bangladesh 73

7.4.4 Impacts of Cyclone on Different Types of Livelihood 73

7.4.5 Causes and Impacts Relationship 74

8. Existing Coping Strategies/Practices 77

8.1 Crop Agriculture 79

8.2 Fisheries 79

8.3 Forestry 80

8.4 Livestock 80

8.5 Water and Sanitation 80

8.6 Industry and Infrastructure 81

8.7 Health 81

8.8 Education 81

9. Probable Future Coping Strategies 83

9.1 Reduction of Exposure 85

9.2 Reduction of Sensitivity 88

9.3 Improvement of Adaptive Capacity of Community 92

9.4 Institutional Capacity Building 94

10. Changes Needed in Planning Process 97

10.1 Incorporation of Climate Change 99

10.2 Creating Enabling Condition 99

10.3 Ensure Participation of Vulnerable Communities and Local Need 99

10.4 Role of General Economic Division 100

10.5 mmediate Projects for Implementation 100

10.5.1 Enhance understanding and knowledge on climate change and development

with special focus on poverty and economic growth 100

10.5.2 Quantitative analysis and assessment of climate change impacts on

economic growth and poverty by regions and livelihood groups 101

10.5.3 Capacity Enhancement of Planning Cadre on Climate Change Issues 102

11. Conclusion 103

12. Key Terminologies 107 12.1 Climate 109 12.2 Climate Change 109 12.3 Climate System 109 12.4 Climate Variability 109 12.5 Extreme Weather Event 109

References 110

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List of Tables

Table 1.1 Linkages between Millennium Development Goals and Climate Change vulnerability context 3Table 5.1 Climate Change scenario for Bangladesh 28Table 5.2 Climate change scenarios of different seasons and geographical regions of the country 28Table 5.3 Trend of tidal surge in three coastal stations 29Table 5.4 Sea level change under different emission scenarios 29Table 5.5 Changes in fresh and brackish water area [in Ha] in dry and monsoon seasons 30Table 5.6 Frequency table of Hazards 31Table 5.7 Different types of flood occurring in Bangladesh 32Table 5.8 Flood with area coverage 33Table 5.9 Return period of flood according to affected area 34Table 5.10 Historical record of cyclone formed in the Bay of Bengal 34Table 5.11 Existing Drought affected Areas under different drought classes 36Table 5.12 Drought Affected areas 37Table 5.13 Frequency of occurrence of drought 37Table 5.14 Showing historical significance of drought 37Table 6.1 Summary of vulnerability context 41Table 6.2 Level of impacts of Climate Change on different sectors 42Table 6.3 Perception of present level Impacts related to Climate Change on crop 43 agriculture in the flood and flash flood affected areasTable 6.4 Perception of present level impacts related to Climate Change on crop 43 agriculture in the drought prone areasTable 6.5 Perception of present level of impacts related to Climate Change on crop 44 agriculture in the coastal areasTable 6.6 Loss of production by different types of hazards 45Table 6.7 Perception of future level of impacts related to Climate Change in the flood prone areas 46Table 6.8 Perception of future level of impacts related to Climate Change in the drought prone areas 46Table 6.9 Perception of future level of impacts related to Climate Change in the Coastal areas 47Table 6.10 Damage to infrastructure by different major cyclones 51Table 6.11 Damage to infrastructure by recent floods 52 Table 6.12 Level of impacts of Climate Change on health 53Table 6.13 Incidence of diarrhoea during major flood events 54Table 6.14 Dengue outbreak history in Bangladesh 55Table 6.15 Dengue incidences in Bangladesh 55Table 6.16 Impacts of different disasters on education infrastructure and the subsequent impacts 56Table 7.1 Climatic elements, critical vulnerable areas and impacted sectors and links with PRSP and MDGs 61Table 7.2 Number and density of poor people by region, 2005 63Table 7.3 Poverty Gap and Squared Poverty Gap by region, 2005 64Table 7.4 Present and future impacts of different climatic events on crop agriculture, poverty and economic growth 64Table 7.5 Present and future impacts of different climatic events on fisheries, poverty and economic growth 65Table 7.6 Present and future impacts of different climatic events on livestock, poverty and economic growth 66Table 7.7 Present and future impacts of different climatic events on forestry, poverty and economic growth 67Table 7.8 Present and future impacts of different climatic events on water and sanitation, poverty and economic growth 68Table 7.9 Damage to Boro Rice production due to cyclone, storm surge and hail storm (in M. Ton) 69Table 7.10 Loss of Boro Rice due to flood (in M. Ton) 69Table 7.11 Loss of AUS Rice due to flood (in M. Ton) 70Table 7.12 Loss of AMAN Rice due to flood (in M Ton) 70

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Table 7.13 Change in contribution to GDP due to Climate Change related hazards 70Table 7.14 Exposure of households involved in agriculture to cyclone 76Table 9.1 Provides list of adaptation measures to reduce exposure 85Table 9.2 Provides list of adaptation options to reduce sensitivity of the system 88Table 9.3 Provides types of intervention to enhance adaptive capacity of the community 92Table 9.4 Provides types of intervention to enhance adaptive capacity of the community 94

List of Figures

Figure 3.1 Strength of relationship of climatic signals and their impacts on sectors and social development 14Figure 3.2 Linkages and formulation of strategies for adaptation and mitigation 15Figure 5.1 Changes in trend of annual rainfall and days-without rain (Rangpur station) 27Figure 6.1 Year-wise occurrence of flood with % of area inundated and damage to crops 45Figure 6.2 Relationship between temperature and malarial incidences 54Figure 7.1 Existing Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth in Relation to impacts on Sectors-Flood Prone Area 75

Figure 7.2 Existing Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth in Relation to impacts on Sectors-Coastal Area 75

Figure 7.3 Existing Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth in Relation to impacts on Sectors-Drought Prone Area 76

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A B B R E V I A T I O N

ADB Asian Development Bank

AEZ Agro Ecological Zone

AR4 Fourth Assessment Report

BARI Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute

BBS Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics

BCAS Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies

BCCSAP Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan

BINA Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture

BMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department

BRRI Bangladesh Rice Research Institute

BUET Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

BWDB Bangladesh Water Development Board

CCC Climate Change Cell

CCCM Canadian Climate Change Model

CCIA Climate Change Impact Assessment

CDMP Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme

CEGIS Centre for Environment and Geographic Information System

CNRS Centre for Natural Resource Studies

DAE Department of Agricultural Extension

DoE Department of Environment

DSSAT Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer

FAO Food and Agricultural Organization

GCM General Circulation Model

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GED General Economic Division

GIS Geographic Information System

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A B B R E V I A T I O N

GO Government Organization

GoB Government of Bangladesh

HIES Household Income and Expenditure Survey

HYV High Yielding Variety

ICDDR,B International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IWM Institute of Water Modeling

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

MOEF Ministry of Environment and Forestry

MoU Memorandum of Understanding

NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action

NGO Non-Government Organization

ODA Overseas Development Assistance

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies

PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

PSF Pond Sand Filters

SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation

SIS Small Indigenous Species

SLR Sea Level Rise

SMRC SAARC Meteorological Research Centre

SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios

STW Shallow Tube-Well

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

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The Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth andthe Options of Coping with adverse Effect of Climate Change in Bangladesh

Responding to The Millennium Development Challenge through Private Sector’s Involvement in Bangladesh

Climate change is a reality and no longer a future concern. Many adverse effects of climate change stimuli including variability and extreme are already visible. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that the average global surface temperature has increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years. It is also reported that the sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres. Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climatic system during the 21st century. It has also stated that impacts during the 21st century would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century. For South Asia, IPCC report predicts that monsoon rainfall will increase, resulting in higher flows during monsoon season in the river system. It has also predicted that sea level rise will be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters which will lead to salinity intrusion and coastal flooding.

Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many climate change related extreme events. It is expected that climate change will bring changes in characteristics of extreme events and gradual changes phenomenon of the physical and natural systems. Due to higher level of dependency on natural resource base, overall impacts of climate change on Bangladesh would be significant. It is estimated that climate change could affect more than 70 million people of Bangladesh. Key factors contributing to its vulnerability are geographic location, low elevation, high population density, poor infrastructure, high levels of poverty and dependency on natural resources. Coastal resources upon which the most people depend are likely to be affected severally due to climate variability and change. It is predicted that for 45 cm rise of sea level may inundate 10-15% of the land by the year 2050 resulting over 35 million climate migrant from the coastal districts.

Ultimately adverse impacts of climate change will have the potential to undermine poverty reduction efforts and could compromise the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and targets, such as the reduction of poverty and hunger by 2015. The National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction (2009-2011) has recognised climate change as one of the emerging issues in pro-poor growth. Poor people are generally most vulnerable to climate change because they live in areas more prone to flooding, cyclones, droughts etc.,

Executive SummaryExecutive Summary

xiv


and have little capacity to adapt to such shocks. They are also more dependent on ecosystem services and products for their livelihoods. Any impact that climate change has on natural systems therefore threatens the livelihoods, food intake and health of poor people. Loss of employment and impacts on assets are likely to reduce opportunities for education in several ways. During the natural disaster and post-disaster period children may be required to help more with household tasks leaving less time for schooling. Even catastrophic cyclone and storm surges damage school facilities and educational materials.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has undertaken a project “Support to Monitoring Poverty Reduction Strategies and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Bangladesh” to enhance the institutional capacity of the government’s General Economic Division (GED) as the National Poverty Focal Point. Under this project, Planning Commission under the Ministry of Planning has carried out a research on “The Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options of Coping with Adverse Effect of Climate Change in Bangladesh.” Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) has undertaken this research on behalf of the General Economic Division. The overall objective of the project is to enhance institutional capacity of the General Economic Division to respond to the planning perspectives of the dynamically evolving socio-economic circumstances under changing climate.

This study has employed both qualitative and quantitative assessment approaches and used primary and secondary data and information. Understanding the relationship between climate change and poverty was one of the key areas. It has been done through analyzing available poverty data and information and information on climate change and its impacts on different sectors. Another area of the study was to understand impacts of climate change on economic growth which has been done through analysing major sectors contributing to economic growth and their impacts due to climate change. National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction, and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan have been consulted to understand poverty and climate related policy aspect. Based on these analyses, the report contains required policy, and strategy to deal with adverse impacts of climate change in the context of poverty and economic growth, as well as possible role of General Economic Division. In order to derive expert opinion on linkage among climate change adverse impacts, poverty and economic growth, about 30 individuals have been interviewed from relevant sectors and two small expert group consultations have conducted. It is also to be noted that this report has been finalized through sharing with key stakeholders in a workshop and suggestions have been incorporated in the final report.

The analysis from expert interviews revealed that reduction of crop yield by gradual change and total or partial damage due to extreme events are key impacts facing by crop agriculture sector. It is also to be noted that most of the crops are affected at flowering to grain-filling stage and thus impacts vary by agro-ecological zone. It has been revealed that 50% reduction of crop production would increase poverty at the same percentage. Assessment of impacts on economic growth is difficult to find but it appears that it could reduce 12% of GDP contribution for a particular disaster. Effects of cyclone are more severe than flood. The experts agreed that 60% damage of crop by a cyclone increases poverty at the same percentage affecting their resources and livelihoods, and decreases economic growth by 15% for the respective period. Thus, MDG 1 (Poverty eradication and hunger) is badly affected and pushed backward. Besides, drought, cold spell, river bank erosion etc. have remarkable impacts on crop agriculture and consequently on poverty and economic growth.

In the fisheries sector climate change will have both negative and positive impacts. The positive impact is possible increase in the open water fisheries during flood. It appears that the impacts would not be remarkable in national context rather it would affect investment at individual level. The key experts’ interviews and consultation workshops revealed that flood and cyclone affect culture fisheries severely while effects of other shocks such as drought, salinity intrusion, erratic rainfall, heat wave, cold wave, fogginess is low to moderate. This leads to loss of livelihoods of the poor fishermen and decrease nutrition status of the rural poor. Moreover, frequent warnings of cyclone lead the fishermen to stay at home for longer periods and thus their income decreased which increased their poverty level.

The consultation with key experts’ state that livestock sector is badly affected by climate variability and shocks.

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Flood, drought, cyclone, sea level rise etc. are the major climate induced natural disasters which cause loss of livestock, damage pasturelands, increase fodder scarcity, destroy shelters, decrease production, increase management cost through incidence of diseases etc. It is also perceive that severe impacts of climate change and extremes on livestock affect poverty moderately. But the impacts of sea level rise affects poverty and economic growth of this particular sector severely as stated by the key experts. Drought, salinity intrusion and heat wave affect the sector moderately and consequently, both poverty and economic growth are moderately affected. Thus, the impacts of climate change on livestock affect poverty reduction activities and in attaining the MDGs.

The impacts of extreme weather events especially, cyclone and storm surge on forestry affect poverty and economic growth in different ways. The supper cyclone Sidr destructed one-quarter of the Sundarbans and almost 100% afforested trees along its path. Poverty is severely affected by cyclone in the context of severity of impact on forestry. Livelihoods of the poor and marginal communities in the forest areas, especially in the Sundarbans area mostly depend on forest resources. Very pertinently, impacts of shocks on forestry affect the poor of that particular livelihood group. It is perceived that salinity intrusion severely affect forest trees and resources especially in the coastal region. This has moderate impacts on poverty and economic growth. The other shocks like flood and drought have moderate impacts on forestry which has low impacts on poverty and economic growth. Besides this, erratic rainfall and temperature variation have low impacts on forestry and lower impacts on poverty.

It is likely that the gradual change phenomena such as temperature rise and erratic behaviour of rainfall will lead to increased water demand and drought while sea level rise and salinity intrusion will deteriorate water quality in the coastal region. Climate change related extreme events particularly cyclone and storm surge will damage water supply and sanitation infrastructure particularly in the coastal region.

Flood and cyclone are the two major climatic events which affect industry sector severely. The women workers involved in handloom become fully unemployed during flood. In the coastal area, industry and infrastructure are mainly affected by cyclone and storm surge. It destroys buildings of industries and machineries in one hand; on the other hand, it destroys roads and other communication networks, power supply networks, water supply networks, and causes health degradation and death of workers. Moreover, salinity has large scale impacts on industry.

Human health suffers from different climatic variability and shocks in different ways. It is revealed from the analysis that health is affected, especially during and after shocks like flood and cyclone. Flood affects sources of drinking water and sanitation system through contamination which lead to out break of diarrhoea, cholera, skin diseases including scabies, drowning, snake bite and even death. Cyclone, sea level rise and salinity intrusion cause outbreaks of diarrhoea, cholera and other water borne diseases, use of saline water causes hypertension, increase blood pressure, corrosive effects due to salt in air, scabies and other skin diseases. Besides that, drought, erratic rainfall and temperature variation increase vector borne diseases, heat stroke, malnutrition, fever etc. Cold wave creates respiratory problem, especially that of children and the old.

Strategies and actions suggested in the report to deal with adverse impacts of present and future climate change and related disasters are based on suggestions derived from different consultation workshops and key experts’ interviews. Key principles considered in formulating strategies and actions were a) reduction of exposure of income stream and production systems, b) reduction of sensitivity of the exposed systems, and c) increase adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities. Institutional and capacity building aspects to support implementation of actions have also been considered. It was found that there is similarity of suggestions mentioned here and in the national climate change strategy and action plan.

In order to address adverse impacts of climate change and reduction of greenhouse gas emission in the context of poverty and national economic growth, a number of changes have been suggested by different stakeholders including changes in planning process while designing programs and projects by different ministries and departments in the climate sensitive geographical region. These include short, medium and long term perspective of climate change, create enabling conditions to incorporate climate change perspectives, ensure participation of all relevant stakeholders particularly potential vulnerable communities to climate change.

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General Economic Division being a focal point for developing medium and long term plans for Bangladesh and facilitating key decision making process of the Government of Bangladesh, it needs to play an important role to address climate change impacts and vulnerability in their planning process. In order to bring changes General Economic Division of the Planning Commission has to improve its capability as well as facilitate other relevant ministries and departments. The following are major areas for immediate attention and action has been suggested.

Knowledge and Research

• Encourage and motivate relevant sectoral ministries and department to enhance existing research and initiate new research linking climate change, poverty and economic growth;

• Develop disaggregated database on climate change, poverty and economic growth to facilitate quantitative analysis and assessment on inter-linkage among climate change impacts, poverty and economic growth and designing different interventions to address climate change;

• Facilitate development of a comprehensive landuse and land zoning plan for proper utilization of land resources to support poverty reduction and economic growth in a sustainable manner. The land zoning also should incorporate climate change as it will bring changes characteristics of physical environment; and

• Support facilities for information gathering through scientific research, and made provision to support activities addressing poverty, economic growth and climate change together.

Capacity Building

• General Economic Division of the Planning Commission should setup a Climate Change Unit to enhance GED’s knowledge base. It should also build awareness and capacity of staff of planning cell of every ministry and department.

• The proposed climate change unit must coordinate with all relevant government agencies at all levels, including both vertical and horizontal while designing and implementing project;

• GED should made provision for financial support to enhance technical capacity of other ministries and departments to incorporate climate change in development and implementation of project.

Policy Issues

• Initiating policy review toward incorporation of climate change issues in the policy, programme and project development;

• General Economic Division (GED) will give priority to the programme and project addressing poverty, economic growth and climate change together;

• GED should facilitate/expedite extension of available research knowledge and good practices/technologies addressing climate change, poverty and economic growth together;

• GED should emphasize agriculture friendly planning process by incorporating CC impacts

In order to address the above need, this study has recommended three immediate activities to understand the issues related to inter-linkage among climate change, poverty and economic growth and facilitate decision making process. These are a) enhance understanding and knowledge on climate change and development with special focus on poverty and economic growth, b) quantitative analysis and assessment of climate change impacts on economic growth and poverty by regions and livelihood groups, and c) Capacity Enhancement of Planning Cadre on Climate Change Issues.

Responding to The Millennium Development Challenge through Private Sector’s Involvement in Bangladesh

Background

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1. The Millennium Declaration of the United Nations was adopted in 2000 by all member states followed by a list of eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which were inclusive of 18 targets and 48 indicators. Bangladesh is committed to achieve the MDGs within the stipulated timeframe, i.e. 2015. Following the adoption of the Millennium Declaration, the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), the medium term budgetary framework and the annual development plan were tuned with the MDGs’ targets. However, progress towards attainment of MDGs has been mixed in Bangladesh. People living in the remote char and river erosion areas with little assets and employment opportunities in the lean period are usual victims of extreme poverty. The progress in meeting MDGs include reduction in gender disparity in primary and secondary schooling; reduction in proportion of population below the national poverty line; promotion and implementation of minimum level of energy consumption; and, achievement to a certain degree in reduction in incidences of communicable diseases and promoting safe drinking water supply.

“Millennium Development Goals: The Mid-Term Bangladesh Progress Report-2007” has highlighted several challenges in achieving the MDG targets. Overall, the target of achieving poverty reduction is on the track but the major challenge is increasing the share of the poorest quintile in the national income. Statistics from 1991 to 2005 shows that share of the poorest quintile has decreased from 6.5 percent to 5.3 percent against the target to increase 14.0 percent by 2015. Bangladesh has two risks in meeting the target - failing to sustain the present trend of economic growth and the extreme groups might get lesser benefits from the economic growth. On the issue of health, particularly to deal with Malaria, the country needs to develop strong mechanisms to monitor outbreak of the disease in high-risk district(s) and to develop effective treatments for drug resistant malaria strains. Simultaneously, increase in detection and cure rates, along with improvements in the quality of diagnostic services, will pose a major challenge for the country.

1.1 Climate Change and Millennium Development Goals

The pattern and behaviour of climate, including variability and extreme events, play a significant role in freshwater availability; in agriculture and its productivity; in the function of natural ecosystems and biodiversity; in influencing human health; and in influencing the livelihood of the people dependent on the natural resource base. These characteristics of climate either create a favourable condition for a system to function better, or put risk on a system and increase its vulnerability. Therefore, economic growth, and the performance of a nation and society rely to a large extent on the behaviour of climate.

Climate change is an environmental issue having significant implications on development, including achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and its targets. The National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction (2009-2011) has recognised climate change as one of the emerging issues in pro-poor growth. Poor people are generally the most vulnerable to climate change because they live in areas more prone to flooding, cyclones, droughts etc., and have little capacity to adapt to such shocks. They are also more dependent on ecosystem services and products for their livelihoods. Any impact that climate change has on natural systems therefore threatens the livelihoods, food intake and health of poor people. Loss of employment and impacts on assets are likely to reduce opportunities for education in several ways. During the natural disaster and post-disaster period children may be required to help more with household tasks leaving less time for schooling. Even catastrophic cyclone and storm surges damage school facilities and educational materials. The following table provides linkage between Millennium Development Goals and climate change.

Table 1.1 Linkages between Millennium Development Goals and Climate Change Vulnerability Context

Millennium Development Goals

Climate Change Context

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme povertyand hunger

Livelihood and income of a large population depends on the natural resource base and most of the poor people often live in marginalized lands and areas more prone to natural disasters. Climate change means that many natural disaster prone areas will become more prone due to increased frequency and intensity of disasters. Drought prone areas will become hotter and drier, with less predictable rainfall; flood frequency and intensity along onset and recession will be changed in future; nature of cyclone and storm surges will be different from the historical trend.

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1.2 Climate and Climate Change in Bangladesh

The climate of Bangladesh is influenced by monsoon climate and characterized by high temperature, heavy rainfall, often-excessive humidity and marked seasonal variations. Although more than half the area is north of the Tropics, the effect of the Himalayan mountain chain is such as to make the climate more or less tropical throughout the year. The climate is controlled primarily by summer and winter winds, and partly by pre-monsoon (March to May) and post-monsoon (late October to November) circulation. The Southwest Monsoon originates over the Indian Ocean, and carries warm, moist and unstable air. The easterly Trade Winds are also warm, but relatively drier. The Northeast Monsoon comes from the Siberian Desert, retaining most of its pristine cold, and blows over the country, usually in gusts, during dry winter months.

Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many climate change related extreme events and natural disasters. It is expected that climate change will bring changes in characteristics of natural hazards and gradual changes phenomenon of the physical system. Studies and assessments of impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation to climate change and sea level rise for Bangladesh clearly demonstrates that Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for South Asia, predicts that monsoon rainfall will increase, resulting in higher flows during monsoon season in the river system. It has also predicted that sea level rise will be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters which will lead to salinity intrusion and coastal flooding. Rainfall is predicted to become higher and more erratic. Frequency and intensity of natural disasters are likely to increase especially in the northern and western part of the country.

All of these together will change crop yields and affect many poor people’s livelihoods. For example, 2007 floods inundated 32,000 sq. km in area that destroyed over 85,000 houses and approximately 1.2 million acres of crops were destroyed or partially damaged. Total estimated loss in terms of dollar was over $1 billion.

It is likely that natural disasters will damage more houses and will cause temporary migration. It may also require children to help more with household works leaving less time for schooling. Malnourishment and diseases also impair learning. Extreme climate change related disasters threaten school buildings and educational materials. For example, cyclone Sidr caused huge damage to school buildings and wiped out teaching materials.

Adverse impacts of climate change are likely to reduce availability and deteriorate quality of water for domestic use. Fetching water for domestic use, for which women are usually responsible are likely to bear disproportionate hardship when provision of these vital necessities becomes difficult.

Direct climate change effects include increases in mortality and illness associated with heat waves, particularly amongst the elderly and the urban poor. Women and children are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events. For example, when the 1991 cyclone hit Bangladesh, 90 percent of victims were women and children.

Climate change is likely to increase the prevalence and infection of vector and water-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, cholera and dysentery etc, Children and pregnant women are particularly susceptible to such diseases.

Climate change will probably cause a decline in the quantity and quality of drinking water, which is a prerequisite for good health. Malnutrition, main cause of ill health among children, could also be exacerbated due to declining natural resource productivity and inadequate supply of food insecurity.

Changes in temperature and rainfall distribution, and sea level rise and salinity intrusion are likely to change ecosystem characteristics and shift ecosystem boundaries. Climate change also poses a greater survival threat than the destruction of many natural habitats including coral reefs. Degradation of biodiversity will reduce the availability of many traditional medicines which may affect poor and rural people who depend more on natural resources for medicine as well as income and food.

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Goal 3: Promotegender equality and empower women

Goals 4, 5 and 6: Health related issues

Goal 7: Ensureenvironmental sustainability

Source: Modified from Reid H and Alam M, 2005

The Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and

the Options of Coping with adverse Effect of Climate Change in Bangladesh

5

Several early evidences of the above phenomenon and its associated impacts in the agriculture system are already visible in Bangladesh. Erratic behaviour of rainfall and temperature, occurrence of extreme weather events and salinity intrusion are key indication of changes in the climatic system. Impacts of changes in the climatic system on production and human system are also being noticed in Bangladesh. Among the different production system, agriculture will face significant adverse impacts of climate change due to changes in hydrological regime which will be influenced by temperature, monsoon rainfall and regional water flow, and extreme weather events. More water in monsoon season will cause floods and low water flow and erratic behaviour of rainfall will result in intense and frequent drought.

The major environmental issues identified and addressed in the Fifth Five Year Plan are natural disasters, industrial pollution, health and sanitation, deforestation, desertification, changes in climatic condition, increased intensity of droughts, severity of floods, increased salinity/tidal surge or water stagnancy and deteriorating habitat of flora and fauna. Since the Fifth Five Year Plan, there had been no other national development plan. But the government has prepared a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) which has more or less reiterated the same concerns in various forms within the document apart from a separate chapter on environment which includes resource management, environmental health, biodiversity and multilateral environmental agreements including those related to climate change. The Government of Bangladesh has prepared the second Poverty Reduction Strategy for the country and adverse impacts of climate change is being considered as one of the key challenges in achieving different targets including Millennium Development Goals.



The Study

9



2. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is undertaking a project “Support to Monitoring Poverty Reduction Strategies and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Bangladesh” to enhance the institutional capacity of the government’s General Economic Division (GED) as the National Poverty Focal Point. Enhancement of institutional capacity includes skills and technical know how of its officials that would enable them to respond to the planning perspectives of the dynamically evolving socio-economic circumstances in the country as well as emerging challenges of climate change. Under this project, Planning Commission under the Ministry of Planning is carrying out a research project on “The Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth and the Options of Coping with Adverse Effect of Climate Change in Bangladesh.” Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) has been awarded this research project and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in May, 2008 with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

2.1 Objectives of the Project

The overall objective of the project is to enhance institutional capacity of the General Economic Division to respond to the planning perspectives of the dynamically evolving socio-economic circumstances under changing climate. The specific objectives are;

Assessment of probable impacts of climate change on MDGs with special focus on Poverty and Hunger, and Economic Growth and formulate a strategy to deal with adverse effects of climate change in Bangladesh;

Equip the General Economic Division with technical know-how and policy choices to respond on planning perspective related to climate change issues of the country;

Enhance understanding and knowledge on impacts of climate change on poverty (income and social) and economic growth (overall GDP and sectoral contribution);

Develop a strategy to cope with adverse effects of climate change (adaptation and mitigation strategy which will include options, policy choices, institutional capacity needs for mainstreaming adaptation at national and sectoral level, and capacity strengthening of GED to facilitate sectoral integration).

2.2 Scope of Work

The research has developed conceptual framework for understanding the linkages between climate change impacts & vulnerability and economic growth particularly poverty reduction and other Millennium Development Goals. The study has focused and analyzed the impacts of climate change on economic growth and poverty by analyzing impacts on different sectors. The sectors include agriculture and land resources, water resources, health and sanitation, housing, industry and infrastructure.

Based on the conceptual framework and analyzing available literature on climate change and poverty including PRSP and MDGs, strategies have been developed to deal with adverse impacts of climate change which will enhance the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable sectors and communities. This strategy document includes policy and advocacy tools which will help to enhance capacity of the personnel of GED to address climate change issues and impacts in their planning process. The specific scope of work is given below.

Development of a conceptual framework and methodology for assessment of probable impacts of climate change on MDGs with special focus on Poverty and Hunger, and Economic Growth;

Carryout analysis of collected data and information using the conceptual framework and methodology;

Capture expert knowledge and understanding on impacts of climate change on different Millennium Development Goals, impacts of economic growth and strategies with different actions to deal with these impacts;

Formulate a strategy to deal with adverse effects of climate change in Bangladesh which will enhance capacity of the General Economic Division with technical know how and policy choices to respond on planning perspective related to climate change issues of the country.



Conceptual Framework Methodology and Tools


13

3. This study has employed both qualitative and quantitative approaches and used primary and secondary data and information. Understanding the relationship between climate change and poverty was one of the key thinking processes and activities which has been carried out through analyzing available poverty related data and information; information on climate change, vulnerability and its impacts on different sectors; statistics of economic growth; review available policies and strategies including National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction, Millennium Development Goals and Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. Based on these analyses, this final report contains policy, and strategy needed to deal with adverse impacts of climate change in the context of poverty and economic growth, and possible role of General Economic Division. This report has been shared with relevant stakeholders through workshops and suggestions have been incorporated in the final report.

The conceptual framework, approach and methodology, and analytical tools used to undertake this research are described below:

3.1 Conceptual Framework: Understanding and Framing Linkage between Poverty and Climate Change

Understanding and framing linkages between adverse impacts of climate change and poverty including other relevant Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is one of the key issues to General Economic Division (GED) for addressing climate change and facilitate integration in implementation process of the PRSP and the MDGs. In order to understand the linkage and multi-dimensional aspects of climate change and poverty along with economic growth, this study used a framework to capture different elements. This framework suggested three key elements i.e. a) understand different aspects of climate change, b) impacts and vulnerability of climate change by region and by sectors with special focus on diverse livelihood options of the people, and c) link with economic growth and poverty reduction. The framework guided analysis of both quantitative and qualitative data and information related to climate change and poverty. An elaboration of different elements of the conceptual framework is given below.

3.1.1 Climate Change

A review and assessment has been carried out to understand climate change science, climatic trend and variability, and extreme events. These include changes in trend of temperature and rainfall, salinity intrusion, erratic behaviour of rainfall and temperature, and climate change related extreme events such as flood, drought, cyclone and storm surges. The review and assessment were done based on available literature and studies on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change for Bangladesh including IPCC reports. A summary of observed changes in the climatic system and future climate change scenarios is given in section 5 which helps to understand and assess impacts of these changes on different sectors supporting economic growth and livelihoods of the people.

3.1.2 Impacts and Vulnerability

Assessment of impacts and vulnerability of climate change on different sectors and by geographical region is the second element of the conceptual framework. Assessment has been done for agriculture including fisheries and livestock, water resources, human settlement, health, infrastructure, industries, and education. This assessment has been done through collection and review of secondary data and literature, and collection of inputs from experts in the relevant field. The vulnerability component includes both physical and social vulnerability. The social impacts and vulnerability focus on dependency of the people on different sectors and how those sectors are impacted due to climate change including extreme events.

3.1.3 Review of PRSP and MDGs in the Context of Climate Change

PRSP and MDGs has been reviewed to understand the status of poverty and hunger, education, health and environmental sustainability in the context of climate change. The review has focused on adverse effects on different strategies and goals of PRSP and MDGs against different climate change contexts such as erratic rainfall and temperature, drought, flood, cyclone, salinity, etc. Different government and non-government projects related to poverty reduction, promotion of education, health and environment have also been reviewed in the context of climate change. The review result has been used to understand the links and gaps of PRSP and MDGs in terms of climate change.

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One of the critical issues of the conceptual framework is that all aspects of climate change will not equally affect a sector. The impacts will vary by space and time and hence the impacts on livelihood will eventually vary. Figure 3.1 provides schematic representation of strength of relationship of climate change aspects and their impacts on sectors and social development aspects.

Figure 3.1 Strength of Relationship of Climatic Signal and their Impacts of Sectors and Social Development

3.2 Strategy to Deal with Adverse Effects of Climate Change

Various strategies suggested in this study to deal with adverse effects of climate change were based on several strategies and action plans already formulated by different ministries of the government as well as suggestions and recommendations derived through different consultation processes. The study team collected available strategy documents related to climate change and analyzed those to understand different types of measures to address the adverse impacts of climate change. These analyses have focused on reduction of exposure and sensitivity and enhancement of adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities and sectors for short, medium and long term perspectives.

3.2.1 Reduction of Exposure and Sensitivity

Most of the sectors are more or less exposed to climate change stimuli including variability and extremes, and of different degrees of sensitivity. Temperature and rainfall are the two key elements of climate which have direct impacts on agriculture, human health, infrastructure etc. This framework considered sector-wise vulnerability to specific climatic element and at what level which contributed to develop appropriate strategies for reducing level of exposure and sensitivity.

3.2.2 Enhance Adaptive Capacity of Vulnerable Sectors and Communities

The study also suggested strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable sectors and communities. Vulnerable sectors as well as communities identified from the secondary sources as well as suggestions and recommendations derived through consultation that help in developing different strategies to reduce vulnerabilities of communities. This includes different income generating options and probable adaptation activities. The following figure shows overall framework for analyzing the situation for development of strategies for adaptation.

Clim

ate Ch

ang

e Sign

al

Social D

evelop

men

t (Po

verty Alleviatio

n/M

DG

s)

Extreme Events(e.g. Cyclone

& Storm Surges)

Hydrology(e.g. Floods &

Droughts)

Temperature(e.g. heat

waves)

Source: Modified from Saleem et al., 2006

Imp

acts on

Sectors


15

Figure 3.2 Linkage and Formulation of Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation

3.3 Analytical Methods and Tools

Different analytical tools and methods are used for assessing the probable impacts of climate change on poverty and economic growth. Both qualitative and quantitative methods, statistical tools, and Geographic Information System (GIS) have been used to analyse poverty and climate change related data and information. The following section provides a summary of different approaches and methods employed in this study.

3.3.1 Assessment of Probable Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth

3.3.1.1 Analysis of Poverty Database

Analysis of poverty data includes compilation of poverty database by region and dependency of household on different sectors as primary source of income. The primary source of income has been used as indicator of main livelihood. Data and information have been collected from secondary sources which include Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) for poverty and economic growth. Other sources are FAO, UNDP General Economic Division etc. The team members visited these organizations for collecting data and information on poverty and economic growth. The General Economic Division of the Planning Commission has been visited for collection of data on economic growth, PRSP and poverty related data and information. The collected data has been analyzed to understand the trend of poverty and economic growth and linked with trend of climate change for future planning. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used to analyze data in the special context and presentation of analytical information through maps.

3.3.1.2 Assessment of Impacts on Key Sectors and by Regions

While assessing climate impacts on different sectors and society it is necessary to keep in mind that it will not affect all the sectors and regions equally as mentioned in the conceptual framework. Therefore, the impacts of climate change on different sectors and by regions have been assessed using GIS and statistical package. The IPCC reports, UNDP country study reports, National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) and other relevant study reports have been reviewed and assessed during this assessment as well. One of the critical issues is harmonization of time dimension of climate change impacts and target of poverty reduction and Millennium Development Goals. This has been done by simple down scaling thought dividing level of impacts of climate change by time to match with poverty target and Millennium Development Goals.

Human interference

MITIGATION of climate change via

GHG sources and sinks

CLIMATE CHANGEincluding variability

Policy responses

PlannedADAPTATION

to the impacts and vulnerabilities

Exposure,Sensitivity

Initial Impacts or Effects

Autonomous Adjustments

Residual or Net Impacts

I M P

A C

T S

V U

L N

E R

A B

I L

I T I

E S

Source: IPCC

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3.3.1.3 Interview with Key Experts

Interview with key experts have been carried out using a check list covering the two major categories of information i.e. a) impacts related and b) response related. The interview with key experts focus on linkage among sectoral impacts, poverty, strategy to address adverse effects of climate change on poverty and GDP, institutional capacity building needs and arrangement. List of Experts interviewed is given in Annex-A.

3.3.1.4 Workshops

Two workshops have been organized to capture expert opinions on several aspects of climate change, poverty and economic growth. Key questions addressed in the consultation workshops are a) what are the existing impacts of climate change? b) what are the existing coping strategies and practices? c) what are the probable impacts of future climate change? d) what are the probable coping strategies and practices? e) what are the changes we have to bring into planning process to address CC? f ) what role GED (Planning Commission) needs to play in the process? Experts included from government organizations, non-government organizations, academics and civil society groups with relevant experiences and expertise.

3.3.2 Formulation of Strategies and Policy Choices

3.3.2.1 Formulation of Draft Strategies and Policy Choices

Based on the above analysis, this report suggested strategies and policy choices to deal with adverse impacts of climate change giving special focus on Poverty and Other Millennium Development Goals. Strategy and policy choices have been developed based on secondary information, outcome of the interview with key experts and findings of the workshop. These strategies are categorised under three broader categories a) means of reduction of exposure, b) means of reduction of sensitivity, and c) means of enhancement of adaptive capacity of the communities. Findings of the analysis, interviews and workshop have been compiled in this draft report.

3.3.2.2 Workshop and Finalization of Strategies

A workshop was organized by the General Economic Division of the Planning Commission where the draft report was presented. The final report has incorporated suggestions and recommendations of the workshop.


Climate Change, Impacts andvulnerability – Global and

Regional Context

19


4.1 Climate Change - Global Context

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had unequivocally confirmed the warming of climate system and linked it directly to human activity. The effects of warming were already grave and they were growing. The global average surface temperature has already increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years; sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003; mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres; eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years. Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climatic system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

The AR4 stated that for the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2˚C per decade is projected for a range of Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1˚C per decade would be expected. Expected changes in global mean temperature is likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4˚C from 1990 to 2100 while water availability will increase in moist tropics and high latitudes and decrease in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes. Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990 and the 2080s. Future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and heavy precipitation.

4.1.1 Impacted Sectors: Freshwater Resources

The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC projected that by mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of which are presently water-stressed areas. Drought-affected areas are likely to increase to a considerable extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk. In the course of this century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by melt water from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives.

4.1.2 Ecosystem

The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded by this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated with disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, over-exploitation of resources). Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5˚C. For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5-2.5˚C and in concomitant atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, there are projected to be major changes in the ecosystem structure and function, species’ ecological interactions, and species’ geographical ranges, with predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity, and ecosystem goods and services e.g., water and food supply. The progressive acidification of oceans due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is expected to have negative impacts on marine shell-forming organisms (e.g., corals) and their dependent species.

4.1.3 Food, Fibre & Forest Product

Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1-3˚C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions. At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2˚C), which would increase the risk of hunger. Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1-3˚C, but above this it is projected to decrease. Increase in the frequency of droughts and floods is projected to affect local crop production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes.

Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1-3˚C, but above this it is projected to decrease. Regional changes in the distribution and

20


production of particular fish species are expected due to continued warming, with adverse effects projected for aquaculture and fisheries. The important challenge would be access to and distribution of food.

4.1.4 Coastal & Low Lying Areas

Coastal systems and low-lying areas are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, due to climate change and sea-level rise. Many million more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable. Adaptation for coasts will be more challenging in developing countries than in developed countries, due to constraints on adaptive capacity.

4.1.5 Industry and Human Settlement

Industry, settlement and society: costs and benefits of climate change for industry, settlement and society will vary widely by location and scale. In the aggregate, however, net effects will tend to be more negative the larger the change in climate. The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal and river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, and those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring. Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in high-risk areas. They tend to have more limited adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies.

4.1.6 Health and Nutrition

Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity, through increases in malnutrition and consequent disorders, with implications for child growth and development; increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat-waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts; the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease; the increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone related to climate change; and, the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors.

By 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change. If coupled with increased demand, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems. Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and yield potential, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas, are expected to decrease. This would further adversely affect food security and exacerbate malnutrition in the continent. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.

Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations. The cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5-10% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

4.2 Climate Change - Regional Context

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for South Asia, predicts that monsoon rainfall will increase, resulting in higher flows during monsoon season in the river system. It has also predicted that sea level rise will be between 0.18 to 0.79 meters which will lead to salinity intrusion and coastal flooding.

Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, and rock avalanches from destabilised slopes, and to affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as


21

the glaciers recede. Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South-East Asia, particularly in large river basins, is projected to decrease due to climate change which, along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect more than a billion people by the 2050s. Coastal areas, especially heavily-populated mega delta regions in South, East and South-East Asia, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and, in some mega deltas, flooding from the rivers. Climate change is projected to impinge on the sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia, as it compounds the pressures on natural resources and the environment associated with rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, and economic development.

It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and South-East Asia while they could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. Taken together and considering the influence of rapid population growth and urbanisation, the risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries.

Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise in East, South and South-East Asia due to projected changes in the hydrological cycle associated with global warming. Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in South Asia.

Himalayan glaciers are retreating at rates ranging from 10 to 60m per year and many small glaciers (<0.2 sq.km) have already disappeared. In particular, the Gangotri Glacier, the source of the Ganges River, is retreating at accelerating speed.

Such glacier retreat will cause two effects on river hydrology. First, large increases in river peak flows will eventually result in devastating flood and second, increase in quantity of glacio-fluvial sediments transported due to excessive melting. This can then cause large-scale damage to downstream river valley schemes such as agriculture and water supply. But on the other hand, rapid melting of the Himalayan glaciers, are expected to reduce by 80% by 2035. Hence, it will result in scarcity of water in a long run (ICIMOD & UNEP, 2007). Bangladesh being one of the lower riparian countries will face more devastating floods in a near term and will face irony of water scarcity in the long run.


Climate Change – Bangladesh

25


5. Bangladesh is already vulnerable to many gradual change phenomena of climate change as well as climate change related extreme events. It is expected that climate change will bring changes in characteristics of gradual change phenomenon and natural hazards which will result changes in physical, social and production system. Studies and assessments on impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation to climate change and sea level rise for Bangladesh clearly demonstrate that Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries in the world. Rainfall is predicted to become higher and more erratic. Frequency and intensity of natural disasters are likely to increase especially in the northern and western part of the country. Several early evidences of the above phenomenon and its associated impacts in the agriculture, health, water and sanitation, biodiversity are already visible in Bangladesh.

Overall impacts of climate change on Bangladesh would be significant. It is estimated that climate change could affect more that 70 million people of Bangladesh due to its geographic location, low elevation, high population density, poor infrastructure, high levels of poverty and high dependency on natural resources1. It was found that the population living in the coastal area is more vulnerable than the population in other areas (Alam and Laurel, 2005). Coastal resources upon which the most people depend are likely to be affected severally due to climate variability and change2. It is predicted that for 45 cm rise of sea level may inundate 10-15% of the land by the year 2050 resulting over 35 million climate refugees from the coastal districts3. Ultimately adverse impacts have the potential to undermine poverty reduction efforts and could compromise the Millennium Development goals (MDGs), such as the eradication of poverty and hunger by 2015. The OECD and World Bank also estimated that 40% of the Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) to Bangladesh may be climate sensitive or at risk.

It is also revealed from the studies and assessments that the context of vulnerabilities and associated impacts vary by spatial, temporal scale and socio-economic condition of communities, resulting need for different adaptation measures and actions. Coastal area of the country is prone to salinity intrusion and tropical cyclone; floodplains in the central areas are prone to flood; north western region of the country is prone to drought; north eastern part of the country is prone to flash flood; and hilly region of the country is prone to erosion and landslide. Water resources and agriculture reported to be most impacted sectors due to climate change.

Recognition of adverse impacts of climate change on economic development, life and livelihoods of the poor and ultimately impeding Millennium Development Goals has pushed urgent need for adaptation to deal with unavoidable impacts of climate stimuli including variability and extreme events in Bangladesh. The Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh has prepared Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008 as a living document and has allocated about US$ 43 million. The development partners in Bangladesh and the Government of Bangladesh have also agreed to setup a Multi-donor Trust Fund (MTF) to deal with Climate Change adaptation and mitigation.

5.1 Climate Change Studies Bangladesh

Over the last decade several studies have been conducted on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for Bangladesh using different climate change scenarios. Most of the studies focus on water, agriculture, biodiversity, human health, and infrastructure (BCAS et al., 1994; Huq et al., 1999; World Bank, 2000; ADB, 1994; MOEF, 2000). Recently several studies have been conducted at sub-national/geographical sub-region scale as well as on different sectors with special focus on coastal zone and agriculture sector (IWM and CEGIS, 2007; BCAS, 2007; CEGIS, 2006; CNRS, 2007). In 2005, Ministry of Environment and Forests has formulated National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) (MOEF, 2005) to address immediate and urgent needs to deal with climate change. Very recently the Government of Bangladesh has prepared Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008 to deal with adverse impacts of climate change which includes six thematic areas and 37 programmes. The thematic area includes a) food security, social protection and health, b) comprehensive disaster management, c) infrastructure, d) research and knowledge management, e) mitigation and low carbon management, and f ) capacity building and institutional strengthening (GoB, 2008). The following sections

1UN Human Development Report 2007/'082OECD, 20033Climate Change Cell, DoE, Bangladesh

26


provide a) summary of climate change scenarios including regional variation and variation between global and regional models, b) probable impacts on different sectors including water, agriculture and health.

5.2 Present and Future Scenario of Climate

5.2.1 Observed Changes

5.2.1.1 Temperature

The observed climatic data from 1971 to 2002 indicate that the temperature is generally increasing in the monsoon season (June, July and August). The average monsoon maximum and minimum temperatures show an increasing trend annually at 0.05˚C and 0.03˚C, respectively. Average winter season (December, January and February) maximum and minimum temperature show respectively a decreasing and an increasing trend annually at 0.001˚C and 0.016˚C (Rahman Alam: 2003). It is also revealed that 1998 was the warmest year in the last 30 years.

SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) has studied surface climatological data on monthly and annual mean maximum and minimum temperature, and monthly and annual rainfall for the period of 1961-90. The study showed an increasing trend of mean maximum and minimum temperature in some seasons and decreasing trend in some others. Overall trend of the annual mean maximum temperature has shown a significant increase over the period of 1961-90. Regional variations have been observed around the average trend (SMRC, 2003).

Bogra and Rangpur are two among other meteorological stations in the northwest region of Bangladesh. Observed data of the Bogra Station from 1971 to 2002 indicates that overall annual maximum and minimum temperature are generally increasing annually at the rate of 0.008˚C and 0.003˚C, respectively. However, rate of change in the monsoon season is higher than annual rate of change. In monsoon season (June, July and August), average maximum and minimum temperature show an increasing trend annually at the rate of 0.033˚C and 0.014˚C, respectively which means monsoon season is becoming warmer. On the other hand average maximum temperature in winter season (December, January and February) shows almost no change while minimum temperature shows an increasing trend annually at the rate of 0.035˚C which means winter is also becoming warmer.

Observed data of the Rangpur Station from 1978 to 2002 indicates that overall annual maximum and minimum temperature are generally increasing annually at the rate of 0.035˚C and 0.027˚C, respectively. However, rate of change of maximum temperature in the monsoon season is slightly lower than annual rate of change. In monsoon season (June, July and August), average maximum temperature shows an increasing trend annually at the rate of 0.02˚C while changes in minimum temperature in the monsoon season is insignificant. On the other hand average maximum temperature in winter season (December, January and February) shows an increasing trend annually at the rate of 0.041˚C while minimum temperature shows an increasing trend annually at the rate of 0.026˚C which reflects winter is also becoming warmer.

5.2.1.2 Rainfall

The mean annual rainfall of the country is about 2300mm, but there exists a wide spatial and temporal distribution. Annual rainfall ranges from 1200mm in the extreme west to over 5000mm in the east and north-east (MPO, 1991). It is 1220 mm in the north-western part, 1490mm in the central part, 3380mm in the coastal areas, and over 5000mm in the north-eastern part - across the borders from Cherapunji and Mawsyriem, two of the rainiest places in the world (Rashid, 1991). Possible connections with El Nino have only now begun to attract attention as a major possible influence on climatic patterns in the Sub-continent.

It was observed that during the last monsoon (2006) there was lower rainfall and that resulted in reduction of Aman crop production of about 25-30% (Karim, 2006). The most remarkable change of rainfall is the change in duration of rainy season. Bangladesh NAPA states that the duration of rainy season has been decreased but the total annual rainfall remains more or less same. It means that heavy rainfall is occurred within short period. This behaviour of rainfall mostly affects agriculture sector and other livelihood systems.

It is found from rainfall data in Bogra that the annual average rainfall is 1834 mm of which 1024 mm rain occurs

27


during the month of June, July and August. On the other hand annual average rainfall for Rangpur is 2270 mm of which 1294 mm occurs during the month of June, July and August.

It is found from the analysis that number of days without rainfall in Bogra station is showing an increasing trend while total annual rainfall is showing decreasing trend. It is also to be noted that the change is not significant and relationship is not very strong. It is found from the analysis that both number of days without rainfall and annual total rainfall in Rangpur is increasing, which means more rain is occurring in short duration. It also reflects erratic behaviour of rainfall. It is also to be noted that the change is not significant and relationship is not very strong. Figure 3.2 shows changes in annual rainfall and days without rainfall with their trend in Rangpur Station.

Figure 5.1 Change in Trend of Annual Rainfall and Days-without Rain (Rangpur Station)

5.2.2 Future Climate Change Scenario

General Circulation Model (GCM) and Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) have been run to develop future climate change scenarios for Bangladesh. The GCM is a global scale model where PRECIS is a regional scale model. Both models output indicate a steady increase in temperatures along with increased trend of summer monsoon precipitation with higher level of inter seasonal variability. Global Circulation Model (GCM) predicts an average temperature increase of 1.0ºC by 2030, 1.4ºC by 2050 and 2.4ºC by 2100. The results also revealed somewhat more warming during the winter months than during the summer. GCM also estimates that precipitation will increase between 6 to 12% during monsoon months (June, July and August) in 2030 and 2100 respectively while small decreases in the winter months (December, January and February) also predicts. However, value of standard deviation from mean suggests that changes are not statistically significant (Agrawala et al., 2003).

The PREICS model result shows that temperature (maximum and minimum) and rainfall vary over space and time. Value of some months is much higher than the season or annual average. Annual average of maximum temperature show an increasing trend but shows that increase over time will decline while minimum temperature shows gradual increase over time. Projection shows that rainfall in monsoon and post-monsoon seasons will increase while rainfall in the dry season will remain closer to historical amount. Rainfall in pre-monsoon shows erratic nature. It predicts that rainfall will increase about 4, 2.3 and 6.7 percent in 2030, 2050 and 2070 respectively in reference to the observed baseline period 1961-1990 (BUET, 2008). Table 5.1 shows summary

y = 12.565x + 2067.6R2 = 0.041

y = 0.4483x + 247.86R2 = 0.0282

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

19721973

19751976

19771978

19791980

19821983

19841985

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

2002

Day

s w

ith

ou

t R

ain

fall

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Days without Rain Annual Total

Linear (Annual Total) Linear (Days without Rain)

Rai

nfa

ll in

mm

28


of future climate change scenario generated by using GCM and PRECIS models while Table 5.2 shows climate change scenario of different seasons and geographical regions of the country.

Table 5.1 Climate Change Scenario for Bangladesh

Source: MoEF, 2005, BUET, 2008 Note: * JJAS

Table 5.2 Climate change scenarios of different seasons and geographical region of the country

Source: BUET, 2008

Temperaturechange (˚C) Mean

(standard deviation)

Precipitationchange (%) Mean

(standard deviation)

SeaLevelRise(cm)Model Year

Annual DJF JJA Annual DJF JJA

GCM 2030 1.0 1.1

0.3- 0.02

0.8 5 -2 6

PRECIS 2030 (Max) 1.3*

2030 (Min) 1.18 0.65 1.78*

4 -8.7 3.8

14

GCM 2050 1.4 1.6 1.1 6 -5 8

PRECIS 2050 (Max) 0.2 0.07 0.89*

2050

(Min) 1.24 0.59 1.65*

2.3 -4.7 3.0

32

2030 DJF MAM JJAS ON Ann NE -9.6 9.0 4.2 24.6 7.0 SE -5.3 3.3 -3.3 14.3 2.3 NW -17.9 2.0 27.0 4.6 3.9 SW -3.6 -2.9 -5.5 19.8 2.0

Rainfall Change (%)

BD -8.7 4.1 3.8 16.6 4.0 NE 0.22 -0.05 -0.26 -0.33 -0.10 SE 0.10 0.56 0.70 -0.59 0.30 NW -0.31 0.03 0.16 -0.26 -0.06 SW -012 0.09 0.30 -0.90 -0.0 6

Maximum Temperature Change (C)

BD -0.03 0.16 0.23 -0.52 0.02 NE 0.20 0.69 0.48 0.13 0.40 SE 0.27 0.41 0.78 -0.46 0.35 NW 0.06 0.42 0.69 0.20 0.38 SW 0.01 0.40 0.62 0.33 0.36

Minimum Temperature Change (C)

BD 0.13 0.48 0.64 0.05 0.37


29

Tidal Station Region Latitude (N) Longitude (E) Datum (m) Trend (mm/year)

Hiron Point Western 3.784

4.996

4.836 7.8

4.0

Char Changa Central 22˚08’

21˚48’ 89˚28’

21˚26’ 91˚59’

91˚06’ 6.0

Cox’s Bazar Eastern

Sea Level Rise (cm) A2

(High Emission Scenario)

B1 (High Emission Scenario)

High

Low

High

Low

2020 2050 2080

6 27 62

- 5 9

5 23 48

- 8 15

5.3 Changes in Sea Level and Salinity Intrusion

Change in the sea level at local level depends on several factors and therefore future sea level rise projected in the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will not be uniform all over world. One of the critical factors related to Bangladesh coast is vertical land movement (subsidence/uplift). Seasonal variation of salinity intrusion also depends on freshwater flow in the river system and cyclonic storm surges.

The SAARC Meteorological Research Council (SMRC) carried out a study on recent relative sea level rise in the Bangladesh coast. The study has used 22 years historical tidal data of the three coastal stations. The study revealed that the rate of sea level rise during the last 22 years is many fold higher than the mean rate of global sea level rise over 100 years, which showed the important effect of the regional tectonic subsidence. Variation among the stations was also found. Table 5.3 represents the trend of tidal level in three costal stations.

Table 5.3 Trend of tidal surge in three coastal stations

Source: SMRC, No. 3

The IPCC 3rd Assessment report estimated that the global rise in sea level from 1990 to 2100 would be between 9 and 88 cm. The Third Assessment Report has also projected global sea level rise for the year 2020, 2050 and 2080 using different emission scenarios. Future projection of Global Sea Level Rise is given below.

Table 5.4 Sea Level Change under different Emission Scenarios

Recent study result revealed that about 13% more area (469,000 ha) will be inundated in monsoon due to 62 cm sea level rise for high emission scenario A2 in addition to the inundated area in base condition. The most vulnerable areas are the areas without polders like Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Barisal, Jhalakati, Bagerhat, Narail. Due to increased rainfall in addition to 62cm sea level rise, the inundated area will be increased and about 16% (551,500 ha) more area will be inundated in the year 2080. On the contrary, in the dry season due to 62cm sea level rise about 364,200 ha (10%) more area will be inundated (inundation more than 30cm) for A2 scenario in the year 2080. However, 15cm sea level rise has insignificant impact on inundation in dry season.

It is important to note that analyzing the impacts of sea level rise in the coastal areas need to incorporate dynamic nature of its morphology and formation process. Bangladesh is a dynamic delta and its landmass is still growing by gradual deposition of sediment. The average sediment accumulation rate for the last few hundred

30


Scenario Dry Season Monsoon Se ason Fresh waterarea (<1 ppt)

Brackish waterarea (>1 ppt)

Change(%)

Fresh waterarea (<1 ppt)

Brackish waterarea (>1 ppt)

Change(%)

Base 2,152,000 3779600 9403A2, 27cm [2050]

2273300 2441200 3665400 10508 114200

A2, 62cm [2080]

2135700 2578800 426800 3502800 12111 276700

2,562,500

years in the coastal areas of Bangladesh is 5-6 mm a year. Therefore, while sea level rises 7 mm/year and the land rises 5-6 mm/year. From the above figures it may appear that the relative sea level rise in the coastal areas of Bangladesh is 1-2 mm/year but significant implication of the sea level rise is losing the productive land which has formed over time.

Salinity intrusion in surface water is highly seasonal in Bangladesh. Salinity and its seasonal variation are dominant factor for coastal echo-system, fisheries and agriculture. Therefore, any changes on present spatial and temporal variation of salinity will affect the biophysical system of coastal area. Distribution of salinity level and landward intrusion in the rivers and surface water for the base condition has been assessed using the southwest region model and Bay of Bengal model for dry and monsoon season. For the base year 2005, it is found that in monsoon (June to September), the saline water is fully flushed out of the Meghna Estuary, but in the western part of the lower delta it is still saline due to scarcity of fresh water flow from upstream. It is found that 5 ppt isohaline (line of equal salinity level) intrude more than 70 km landward in the western part of Sundarbans, through the lean flowing Jamuna-Malancha-Raimangal river system, whereas comparatively higher freshwater flow through Pussur-Sibsa river system pushes the 5 ppt saline front more downward and keeps it at the estuary mouth. Similarly, the Baleswar-Bishkhali river systems with higher monsoonal freshwater flow from the Padma-Lower Meghna, keeps this south central region almost saline free during monsoon. During dry season (December to March) deep landward intrusion occurs through various inlets in the western part of coastal zone and through Meghna Estuary.

Salinity will intrude more landward specially during dry season due to sea level rise. Consequently brackish water area would increase and it is seen that sea level rise of 27 cm causes 6% increase of brackish water area compared to base condition. About an additional area of 327,700 ha would become high saline water zone (>5 ppt) during dry season due to 60 cm sea level rise. In the monsoon about 6% of sweet water areas (276,700 ha) will be lost. Impact of 15cm sea level rise on salinity intrusion under low emission scenario B1 in the year 2080 is insignificant.

Table 5.5 Changes in fresh and brackish water area [Ha] in dry and monsoon


31

No. of events Decades

Flood Cyclone Tornado Drought

80s 1 7 2 3

90s 3 4 1 3

00s 9 7 6 1

01s 6

19

1 5 0

Total 19 14 7

5.4 Extreme Climatic Events

Natural disaster is a regular phenomenon in Bangladesh. Key natural disasters are riverine and flash flood, tropical cyclones, tornados, and droughts due to its unique geographical location (Himalaya to the north and Bay of Bengal to the south). It is reported that between 1991 and 2000, 93 major disasters occurred in Bangladesh, resulting in nearly 200,000 deaths and causing US $ 5.9 billion in damages with high losses in agriculture and infrastructure (CCC, 2007). Since then, the country is experiencing extreme climatic events frequently. It is revealed from the disaster records of last three decades that frequency of natural disasters has increased over time. The following table shows that frequency of flood and tornado has increased in last two decades.

Table 5.6 Frequency Table of Hazards

Source: BWDB (2007), CEGIS & SMRC

32


Time/duration Tentative affected area

Pre monsoon months of April and May

The foot of the Northern and eastern hills of Bangladesh

In thesouth-western part of the country

Catchment areasof three majorrivers.

South western coastal areas.

April-May, June-August

April-May andJune-September

Tidal flood occurs from Juneto September

Causes of occurrence

Run-off durin gexceptionaly heavy rainfall occurring in neighboring upland areas

Heavy rainfall occurring over flood planeand terrace areas within Bangladesh.

Snow melt in high Himalayans, Heavy monsoon rainfalls over the Himalayans, the Asam Hills, theTripura Hills and the Uppar Brahmaputra and Ganges flood plains

In case of important cyclones the entire coastal beltis flooded. Coastal areas are also subjected to tidal flooding

5.4.1 Changes in Flood Frequency

Flood is a regular natural disaster occurring in Bangladesh and thus entailing huge damage to the economy. Four main types of natural floods occur in Bangladesh:

Table 5.7 Different types of flood occurring in Bangladesh

Source: Ahmed, 2006

The projected increase in rainfall during monsoon would be reflected in the flow regimes of the rivers of Bangladesh. Increased flooding and drainage congestion, therefore, are the expected consequences from a warmer and wetter condition. The increased runoff would also aggravate the existing drainage problem and create new ones. Bangladeshi rivers, especially the major ones, have lost gradient during the past several decades. Consequently their conveyance capacity has diminished significantly. Furthermore, snow melting in the Himalayan region along with simultaneous rise in sea level will eventually result in prolonged and devastating flood.

From historical point of view, it has been observed that the frequency, intensity and magnitude of flood have increased as well. Since 1954, 48 small, medium and big floods have struck Bangladesh. Among those, 7 events were severe where more than 30% of land area was inundated. The following table shows flooded area from 1954 to 2007.

Coastal Flood

River Flood

Rainwater flood/ Monsoon Flood

Flash Flood

Type of Flood

33


Source: BWDB, 2007 (Annual flood report, 2007)

In the context of return period of different scale of flood, it is also found that a flood event which inundates 37% of land usually occurs once in every 10 years. But it is found that number of floods inundated 37% of land occurred 5 times in last 30 years and 3 times in last 10 years. Similarly, flood which inundates 60% area suppose to occur once in every 50 years but in last 30 years such flood has occurred twice and in last 10 years has occurred once. So, it is quite evident that frequency and intensity of flood has increased significantly in last 30 years.

34


Cyclone

Year Maximum Wind Speed (Kph)

Surge Height (m) Causalities

Nov. 1901 62-88

Nov. 1904 62-88

Oct. 1905 62-88

Oct. 1909 89-117 172

Dec. 1909 89-117

Apr. 1911 89-117

Sep. 1919 (Bengal Cyclone) 120 3500

Apr. 1922 89-117

May. 1923 89-117 6

May. 1926 89-117 2700

May. 1941 89-117 3.03 -3.64 5000

Oct. 1947 89-117 500

Oct. 1960 (8 -10) 129 6 9450

Oct. 1960 (30 -31) 193 6.6 5149

May. 1961 (5 -9) 161 5 11,468

May. 1961 (27 -30) 161 6.5

Oct. 1962 93

May. 1963 193 6 22000

Oct. 1963 81

May. 1965 161 3.7 19279

Dec. 1965 184 3.6 3000

Oct. 1966 139 6.67 850

Table 5.9 Return period of flood according to affected area

5.4.2 Changes in Cyclone and Storm Surges

The Bay of Bengal is a known breeding ground of tropical cyclone and hit the coastal area of Bangladesh during pre-monsoon (April and May) and post-monsoon (October and November) seasons. One of the reasons why it hits Bangladesh coast often is the conical shape of the Bay of Bengal. Over the last 50 years, 15 severe cyclones with wind speed ranging from 140 to 225 km/hr have hit the coastal area of Bangladesh of which 7 hit in pre-monsoon and rest in the post-monsoon season.

Tropical cyclones are the most talked about climatic events in the subcontinent especially in Bangladesh and India. The coastal area of Bangladesh is more vulnerable to cyclones in the Bay of Bengal Regions. In this study, frequency of cyclonic disturbance formed over the Bay of Bengal has been compiled for the period 1901 to 2007.

Return period (Years)Flooded Area

2 5 10 20 25 50 100

Area affected % 20 30 37 43 52 60 70

Last 30 years 5 3 2 2

Last 10 years 3 2 1 1

Table 5.10 Historical record of Cyclone formed in Bay of Bengal

35


Cyclone

Year Maximum Wind Speed (Kph)

Surge Height (m) Causalities

Oc t. 1970 163

Nov. 1970 224 10 500000

Dec. 1973 111 4.55 1000

Nov. 1974 161 5.1 20

Jun. 1975 83 5

May. 1977 120

Dec. 1981 167 4.55 72

Oct. 1983 122 43

Nov. 1983 135 1.5 300

May. 1985 154 4.55 10000

Nov. 1986 110 0.61 60

Nov. 1988 161 4.4 568 3

Apr. 1991 225 7.6 1,38,882

Jun. 1991 110 2.5 300

Nov. 1992 50

Apr. 1994 210 4.85 184

Nov. 1995 210 650

May. 1997 230 4.55 155

Source: SMRC and Wikipedia.

Table 4.10 shows that 15 most damaging cyclones have struck Bangladesh very badly. Among those 4 were catastrophic and killer cyclones which struck in 1919, 1970, 1991 and 2007. The damaging cyclonic events have been identified depending on wind speed and surge height. The cyclones which have wind speed of 120 kph and surge height of 4.5 m have taken into account.

Since cyclones have potential to cause severe damage to agriculture, district wise frequency and affected household along with their vulnerability of being affected by cyclone have been presented in the following table.

5.4.3 Changes in Drought

Bangladesh experiences major droughts once in 5 years. Droughts at local scale are much more frequent and affect part of the crop life cycle. The western part of the country is vulnerable to drought during pre-monsoon period.

Sep. 1997 150 3.05 67

May. 1998 150 2.44

Nov. 1998 90 2.44

Nov. 2007 220 4.5 3000

36


Drought Class Rabi Pre-Kharif Kharif

Very Severe 0.446 0.403 0.344

Severe 1.71 1.15 0.74

Moderate 2.95 4.76 3.17

Slight 4.21 4.09 2.90

No Drought 3.17 2.09 0.68

Non-T. Aman 4.71

During the last 50 years, Bangladesh suffered about 20 drought conditions. The drought condition in north-western Bangladesh in recent decades had led to a shortfall of rice production of 3.5 million tons in the 1990s. If other losses, such as, to other crops (all rabi crops, sugarcane, tobacco, wheat http://banglapedia.search.com.bd/HT/S_0582.htm, etc) as well as to perennial agricultural resources, such as, bamboo, betel nut, fruits like litchi, mango, jackfruit, banana etc. are considered, the loss will be substantially much higher.

Current Severe drought can affect yield in 30% of the country, reducing national production by 10%. 2030 Temperature increase of 0.5˚C and annual rainfall reduction of 5% could reduce runoff into the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers by 14%, 11% and 8%, respectively. With 12% reduction in runoff, the population living in severe drought-prone areas increases from 4% to 9% under moderate climate change. Table 5.11 provides the exiting drought affected areas under different drought classes.

Table 5.11 Exiting Drought Affected Areas under Different Drought Classes

Future droughts may increase the probability of a dry year, meaning a year with a certain percentage of below-average rainfall, by 4.4 times by 2050. Temperature increase of 1.3˚C and precipitation decrease of 9% would reduce runoff into the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna Rivers by 27%, 21% and 15%, respectively. If runoff drops 22% in kharif season, drought-prone areas would expand to include north-western to central, western and south-western regions (GoB, 2005)


37

1791

1865 Drought proceeding famine occurred in Dhaka.

1866

1872

1874

1951

1973

1975

1978 -79

1981 Severe drought adversely affected crop production.

1982

1989

1994 -95

Table 5.14 Showing historical significance of droughts

Year % of affected area

1951 31.63%

1957 46.54%

1958 37.47%

1961 22.39%

1966 18.42%

1972 42.48%

1979 42.04%

District Frequency

Panchagar

Thakurgaon

Jessore 1

1

1

Naogaon 5

Nawabganj 5

Rajshahi 1

Natore 1

Nilpahamari 1

Joypurhat 3

Dinajpur 3

Rangpur 3

Pabna 1

Bogra 1

Table 5.13 Frequency of Occurrence of Drough Table 5.12 Drought Affected Area

Drought affected Jessore district. Priceshad risen twice and three times of their usual levels.

Severe drought in Bogra. The rice production of the district was hit hard and the price went up three times its normal level.

Drought in Sundarbans. The rainfall was deficient and in several lots the crops sufferedto a great extent.

Bogra was affected and the crop failure was much greater. The rainfall was extremely low.

Severe drought in northwest Bangladesh and substantially reduced rice production.

One of the severest in the present century and was responsible for the 1974 famine in northern Bangladesh.

This drought affected 47% of the entire country and caused sufferings to about 53% of the total population.

Severe drought causing widespread damage to crops. Reduced rice production by about 2 million tons and directly affected about 42% of the cultivated land and 44% of the population. It was one of the severest in recent times.

Caused a total loss of rice production amounting to about 53,000 tons. In the same year flood damaged about 36,000 tons of rice.

Most of the rivers in NW Bangladesh dried up and in several districts, such as Naogaon, Nawabganj, Nilpahamari and Thakurgaon; dust syndrome occurred for a prolonged period due to drying up the topsoil.

This drought was followed by that of 1995-96, caused immense damage to crops, especially in the case of rice and jute the main crops of NW Bangladesh. These are followed by bamboo-clumps, a major cash earning crop of many farmers in the region. In the recent times, this was most persistent drought in Bangladesh.


Bangladesh: Impacts and Vulnerabilities toClimate Change

41


Table 6.1 Summary of Vulnerability Context

Climate Change Vulnerability Context and Characteristics

Changes in Flooding Characteristics Coverage of inundated area in monsoon season will increase(more flood vulnerable area)

Changes in depth and duration of inundation (depth of water will be higherand periodwill be longer)

Changes in recession period of flood water (water logging) Changes in flood frequency (more frequent and intense flood) Changes in Drought Characteristics Changes in drought intensity (more area under severe drought) Changes of extent of drought prone area (expansion of area) Changes in timing of drought (erratic behaviour of rainfall and temperature)Changes in Coastal Characteristics Expansion of salinized areas Increase in salinity intensityIncrease drainage congestion and coastal flooding

Coastal Zone

Cyclone and storm surges Changes in Haor Basin Characteristics Changes in timing of flash flood Changes in recession period Changes in distribution of rainfall and intensity Changes in erosion of top soil

Hilly Region

Increase possibility of landslide

Types of Geographic al Areas with Dominant Ecosystems

Floodplain (freshwater aquatic ecosystem, fisheries, Transplanted Aman)

Drought Prone (dryness, moisture stressed condition)

Haor Basin (tectonically depressed area)

6.1 Context of Vulnerability

The above section of the report provides climate change scenarios and its associated contexts of vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise for Bangladesh. It revealed that vulnerability context varies across the country. The contexts may be characterised by geographical region with predominant ecosystem. The present vulnerability of the country is related to flood (riverine and flash flood), drought, salinity, cyclone and storm surges, and river bank and soil erosion which will be aggravated by climate change and sea level rise. The north-western region of Bangladesh is prone to seasonal drought where extreme temperature and erratic behaviour of rainfall are key issues related to climate change. Salinity intrusion, sea level rise, and cyclone and storm surges are key issues for the low lying coastal area. The floodplain ecosystem spread over mostly in the central region of the country which will face frequent and intense flood due to climate change. The north-eastern and hilly areas of the country will face more devastating flash flood. A summary of the characteristics of the climate related vulnerability context by major geographical regions and ecosystems are given below.

The above mentioned vulnerability context of climate change is likely to affect agriculture sector including crops, livestock and fisheries; freshwater for drinking and agricultural purpose; and rural infrastructure including water supply and sanitation, and rural roads. The following table shows level of impacts of climate change on different sectors.

42


Physical Vulnerability Context

Flood Sea Level Rise

Extreme Temperature

Coastal Inundation

SalinityIntrusion

Drought RiverFlood

Flash Flood

CycloneandStormSurges

Erosion and Accretion

Sectoral VulnerabilityContext

+++ ++ +++ +++ + ++ +++ - Crop Agriculture

++ + + ++ ++ + + - Fisheries

++ ++ +++ - - + +++ - Livestock

+ ++ - ++ + + +++ Infrastructure

++ +++ ++ - ++ + + - Industries

++ +++ +++ - ++ - + - Biodiversity

+++ + +++ - ++ - ++ - Health

- - - - - - +++ +++ Human Settlement

++ + - - + - + - Energy

Table 6.2 Level of Impacts of Climate Change on Different Sectors

Source: NAPA

6.2 Impacts on Crop Agriculture

Agricultural crop of Bangladesh is influenced by seasonal characteristics and different variables of climate such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, day-length etc. It is also often constrained by different disasters such as floods, droughts, soil and water salinity, cyclone and storm surges. Several studies indicated that climate is changing and becoming more unpredictable every year in Bangladesh. There is a strong possibility that moisture content of the topsoil in the north-western region would decrease substantially resulting from decrease in winter precipitation and higher evapo-transpiration.

Degradation of productive land including quality and physical loss are key concerns for coastal agriculture due to salinity intrusion and sea level rise. Drainage congestion and water logging is very likely in the coastal region as a result of combined effect of higher sea water levels, subsidence, sedimentation of estuary branches, higher riverbed levels and reduced sedimentation in flood-protected areas.

The higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns coupled with increased flooding, rising salinity in the coastal belt, droughts in the northwest and southwest, and drainage congestions are likely to reduce crop yields and crop production. Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model result shows that yield reduction will vary by types of crops and their growing season. IPCC estimates that, by 2050, rice production in Bangladesh could decline by 8 percent and wheat by 32 percent.

6.2.1 Existing Impacts – Perception

Result of the expert interviews revealed that the impacts of climate change including variability and extremes on crops are multi-dimensional. Nature of variability and extreme, location and season are important determinant of level of impacts. The main crop, rice, is severely affected by extreme particularly flood, drought, cyclone and storm surges. Other factors are salinity intrusion and temperature variation and rainfall.

43


Major Changes and ImpactsCrop loss/yield reduction (%)

• Soil quality degradation by sand deposition due to bank erosion 10

• Improve soil health by deposition of silts and SOM 20

• Changes in flooding characteristics (increased frequency, severity, duration and extent)

30

• Changes in crops/cropping patterns with new varieties 15 (incr ease)

• Damage of Aus, Aman by riverine flood and river bank erosion 30

• Damage of Boro Rice by flash flood in basin areas 40

• Delay sowing of pulses and vegetables 30

• Increase waterlogged area 20

• River bank erosion causing decrease of cultivable land 20

• Increasing incidence of pests and diseases 10

Source: Key experts interviews and workshop for MDG-GED project, 2008


• Decreasing soil moisture that affect crop production systems 20 • Changes in drought characteristics (time/duration, severity and extent) 20 • Degradation of soil physical properties due to depletion of SOM and decrease of microbial population

20

• Increasing soil-related constraints (viz.swelling/cracking clays, P-fixation, micro-nutrient deficiencies of Zn, B and Mo)

25

• Cultivable paddy land is transferring to high value crops especially in Barind areas

15

• Changes in crops/cropping pattern with new varieties 10 (increase) • Aman crop is affected by drought 30

Reduction of crop yield by gradual change and total or partial damage due to extreme events are key impacts facing by crop agriculture sector. In addition to direct climate and climate related disaster, other key factors of yield reduction are degradation of soil health by sand deposition and erosion of cultivable land. The following table provides several stress factors identified by the experts and probable yield reduction. It is also to be noted that most of the crops are affected at flowering to grain-filling stage and thus impacts vary by agro-ecological zone.

Table 6.3 Perception of Present Level of Impacts related to Climate Change on Crop Agriculture in the Flood and Flash Flood Affected Areas

Table 6.4 Perception of Present Level of Impacts related to Climate Change on Crop Agriculture in the Drought Affected Areas

44



• Wheat is affected by drought and shorter winter period 20 • Rabicrops/vegetables, pulses being affected due to moisture stress and fogginess

30

• Fruit dropping due to moisture stress, B deficiency and fogginess 30

• Increasing incidence of pests and diseases


15


• Increasing soil salinity with extent and severity 20 • Swelling/heavy clays/salt crusting in land preparation 15 • Degradation of soil physical/chemical properties due to prolonged water stagnancy creating micro-nutrient deficiencies of S and Zn wetland rice cultivation.

25

• Increasing soil-related constraints (viz.swelling/cracking clays, soil wetness) that create problems in land preparation

30

• Late planting of rabi crops due to delaying in recession of flood water and soil wetness

20

• Damage of standing crops (khesari, soybean, groundnut) due to moisture stress and salinity

30

• Increasing water-logged areas keeping more cultivable land as fallow in Rabi, Kharif-I and Kharif-II season

Fallow: 50%

• Changes in crops/cropping pattern with varieties 10 (increase)30 20 30 20

• Rainfed aus crop is affected by drought and salinity • Boro and wheat is affected by salinity • Conversion of crop land into shrimp culture • Increasing incidences of pests and diseases

• Decreasing income source of the poor in coastal areas

Table 6.5 Perception of Present Level of Impacts related to Climate Change on Crop Agriculture inthe Coast Areas


Experts have also expressed their views on changing cropping pattern. Changes in characteristics such as untimely and prolonged flooding, erratic rainfall, temperature variation, prolonged drought, changes in the length of winter and summer seasons have identified as climate change related drivers. Key experts informed that the length of winter season is decreasing whereas summer is increasing. Present cropping seasons are also facing uneven distribution of rainfall and temperature variation which is leading seasonal adjustment in the cropping pattern and in most cases these are temporary changes. Moreover, crop land is transferring to horticulture especially in the drought prone area. This reduces rice crop production considerably at local level but significant implication is limiting rural livelihood opportunities in crop agriculture.

Damage of crop is another key effect of climate variability and extremes. Flood (all types) and cyclone damage standing crops severely. Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE) under the Ministry of Agriculture has


45

Figure 6.1 Year wise occurrence of flood with % of area inundated and damage to crops.

Source: CEGIS, BBS and DAE 2007.

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Year

Cro

p D

am

ag

e (

MT

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Are

a I

nu

nd

ate

d (

%)

C rop Damage Area inundated

Loss in Production (M. Tons)

Flood (all types) Cyclone/Storm/Hailstorm

Year

Aus

71,835

31,565

176,970

12,558

30,117

274,875

26,510

-

27,540

52,030

177,880

150,590

Aman Boro Aus Aman Boro

1993 115,31 3 - 141 - 80,522

1994 3,535 139,08 0 - - -

1995 541,99 5 - - - -

1996 8,677 - - - 25,012

1997 6,240 - - 4,501 -

1998 927,35 7 23,558 - - -

1999 242,60 5 - - - -

2000 197,97 0 - 1,572 - 317,460

2001 34,870 - - - 18,440

2002 131,89 0 - - - 247,760

2003 43,880 - - 15,610

2004 954,50 0 - - - 497,220

Source: BBS

Table 6.6 Loss of production by different types of hazards

estimated that 1.39, 1.26 and 14.48 lakhs hectares of crop land was affected by flood in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. Cyclone Sidr has fully destroyed 300,940 ha of Transplanted Aman and partially damaged 700,533 ha (Draft report on cyclone Sidr, CDMP). The following table shows yearly damage of rice variety by flood and cyclone.

Usually adverse impacts of climate change on soil quality and its subsequent effects on crop are not recognized. Experts interviewed informed that temperature variation could increase biotic activity of the soil and increase deficiency of soil nutrient and likely to reduce crop production. It has also revealed that flood has both positive and negative impact on soil. In the case of land covered by sand which degrades the quality of soil while silt deposition improves soil quality which has positive impact on crop production.

It is evident that the higher the magnitude of flood, the higher the damages of crop agriculture. It is found that flood of 1998 and 2004 cause significant damage to crops. The following figure shows relationship between area inundated and damage to crop.

46


Major changes and impacts Crop loss/yield reduction (%)

• Deposition of SOM will be increased in low-lying areas 10 • Minerals and coarse materials will be increased in char lands with areas and extent

10

• Cropping pattern, cropping season and variety of crops will be changed 10 • Coverage of rabi crops will be decreased 15

• Prolonged flood/Late flood will delay rabi crops 10 • Increase intensity/severity of flash floods will hamper Boro cultivation in Haor basins

50

• Overall cropyield will be decreased due to degradation of soil quality and climatic hazards

15

Table 6.7 Perception of Future Level of Impacts related to Climate Change in the Flood prone areas

Major changes and impacts Crop loss/Yield

reduction

• Soil reserve nutrients will be decreased due to increased mineralization, depletion of SOM and intensive cultivation

20

30

TA-30, wheat 20

and mustard 10

30

30

10

20

20

Table 6.8 Perception of Present Level of Impacts related to Climate Change in the Drought Prone Areas

6.2.2 Future Impacts – Perception

The probable impacts of climate change on crop agriculture will be aggravated in future since the frequency and intensity of shocks and erratic behaviour of rainfall and temperature will increase, stated by the key experts of agriculture sector. Historical data also states that frequency and intensity of flood and cyclone will increase which will affect crop agriculture at a greater scale. The major effects of climate change will include changes in cropping pattern and crop variety, reduction of coverage of Rabi crops, changes of Boro season, extent of damage of standing crops. T. Aman, wheat and pulses will suffer more due to increase severity and area of drought. The experts from SRDI informed that the high land crop will be affected by climate change very severely, medium high land severely and medium lowland & low land will be unchanged. It is also informed that most of the climatic events will degrade the quality of soil. The respondent said that the more developed soil, the poorer quality of soil. Frequent flood, erratic rainfall and temperature variation will increase biotic activity, decomposition, porosity and permeability of soil which will affect crop agriculture. These impacts will vary in different ecological zones. The following tables show the perceptions of future impacts of climate change, variability and extremes in different ecological zones on crop agriculture:

• Dry-land crop varieties will be changed

• T. Aman will highly be affected by drought and moisture stress

• Chickpea, tomato will be affected at higher temperature

• Flowering and grain-filling stage of wheat and T. Aman will be affected seriously by

temperature variation and decreased winter period and moisture stress

• Sterility of wheat, pulses and oilseeds will be increased due to increased fogginess

• Seedlings of Boro will be hampered due to cold wave

• Cold wave will affect mustard, chickpea, lentil, and other rabi crops at the stage of

flowering and grain filling and cause yield reduction

• Disease of potato will be increased due to cold wave and fogginess


47

Major Changes and ImpactsCrop loss/Yieldreduction (%)

• Soil salinitywill be increased with extent and severity 20 • Swelling/heavy clays/salt crusting in land preparation 10 • Degradation of soil physical/chemical properties due to prolonged water stagnancy creating micro-nutrient deficiencies of S and Znwetland rice cultivation.

20

• Increasing soil-related constraints (viz.swelling/cracking clays, soilwetness) that create problems in land preparation

20

• Late planting of rabi crops due to delaying in recession of flood water and soil wetness

20

• Damage of standing crops (khesari, soybean, groundnut) due to moisture stress and salinity

20

• Increasing water-logged areas keeping more cultivable land as fallow in Rabi, Kharif-I and Kharif-II season

Fallow:50%

• Changes in crops/cropping pattern with varieties 10 (increase) • Rainfed aus crop will be affected bydrought and salinity 20 • Boro and wheat will be affected by salinity 20 • Conversion of crop land into shrimp culture 30 • Increasing incidences of pests and diseases 20

• Decreasing income source of the poor in coastal areas

Table 6.9 Perception of Present Level of Impacts related to Climate Change in the Coastal Areas

6.2.3 Future Impacts – Model Result

Various studies indicate that a temperature rise of 1 to 20C in combination with lower solar radiation causes sterility in rice spikelets. High temperature was found to reduce yields of HYVs of aus, aman and boro rice in all study locations and in all seasons. The effect was particularly evident at a rise of temperature by 40C. Climate changes, especially in temperature, humidity and radiation, have great effects on the incidence of insect pests, diseases and microorganisms. A change of 10C changes the virulence of some races of rust infecting wheat.

The production of crop in Bangladesh is constrained by too much water during the wet season and too little during the dry season. Presently total irrigated area is 4.4 million ha which is more than 50 % of the potentially irrigable area of 7.12 million ha cultivated area. This area is being irrigated through surface and ground water. Irrigation coverage through Shallow tubewells (STWs) during the dry period has grown very fast following a policy of privatization and deregulation. As a result, the groundwater table in Bangladesh is declining at a rapid rate causing STWs to become non-operational in many parts of the country during dry period. Lack of surface water during the dry season limits the function of Low Lift Pumps.

The GFDL model predicted about 17 % decline in overall rice production and as high as 61 per cent decline in wheat production compared to the baseline situation of 1990 under 4 degree changes in temperature. The highest impact would be on wheat followed by rice (aus variety). This translates to a reduction of 4.5 million tons of rice at the present level (2002) of production. Of the three varieties of rice grown in Bangladesh, the aus rice (grown during the summer, monsoon period under rain-fed conditions) seems to be the most vulnerable. The other model, Canadian Climate Change Model (CCCM) predicted a significant fall in food-grain production. It should be noted, however, that this scenario was based on projecting existing cropping patterns into the future-which is not necessarily what will happen, as there are signs of significant changes already taking place in cropping patterns.

It was noticed that temperature increase of 4oC would have severe impact on food-grain production, especially for wheat production. On the other hand, carbon-dioxide fertilization would facilitate food-grain production. A rise in temperature would cause significant decrease in production of 28 % and 68 % for rice and wheat respectively. Moreover, doubling of atmospheric concentration of CO2 in combination with a similar rise in temperature would result in an overall 20 % rise in rice production and 31 % decline in wheat production. It was

48


found that boro rice would enjoy good harvest under severe climate change scenario with doubling of atmospheric concentration of CO2 (Karim et al., 1999).

The apparent increase in yield of boro (dry season rice crop generally grown under irrigated conditions and includes high yielding varieties) and other crops might be constrained by moisture stress. A 60 % moisture stress on top of other effects might cause as high as 32 % decline in boro yield, instead of having an overall 20 % net increase. It is feared that moisture stress would be more intense during the dry season, which might force the Bangladeshi farmers to reduce the area for boro cultivation. Shortfall in foodgrain production would severely threaten food security of the poverty-ridden country.

Under a severe (4oC temperature rise) climate change scenario the potential shortfall in rice production could exceed 30 % from the trend, while that for wheat and potato could be as high as 50 % and 70 % respectively (Karim, 1996). Under a moderate climate change scenario the crop loss due to salinity intrusion could be about 0.2 Mt (Habibullah et al., 1998). The loss of production due to such effects may be relatively higher compared to that under floods. However, the loss incurred in other sectors could be much higher in case of floods than the direct climatic changes. The effect of low-flow on agricultural vulnerability is considered to be much less intense compared to other effects. The ultimate impacts of loss of food grain production would increase import of food which will require spending hard currency.

6.3 Fisheries

There is limited quantitative assessment of impacts of climate change on fisheries but it is anticipated that aquaculture will be affected adversely due to increased flooding and lack of availability of water in the dry season. While production may increase in open water fisheries as a result of monsoon flood. Therefore, total production of freshwater fishes may remain same. It is also expected that composition of coastal fisheries may change overtime as a result of coastal inundation and salinity intrusion. It is also anticipated that livestock will face fodder crisis in the coastal and heat related stress in the north-west region of the country.

6.3.1 Existing Impacts – Perception

Climate change will have both negative and positive impacts on fisheries. The positive impact is possible increase in the open water fisheries during flood. It appears that the impacts would not be remarkable in national context rather it would affect investment at individual level. The key experts’ interviews and consultation workshops revealed that flood and cyclone affect culture fisheries severely while affect of other shocks such as drought, salinity intrusion, erratic rainfall, heat wave, cold wave, fogginess is low to moderate. Flood causes fish loss damaging pond dykes, hatcheries, nurseries and embankments. It also affects fish production through disease outbreaks and pond siltation. Fish production may also be hampered by affecting breeding ground of fish due to siltation of fish habitat. These affect livelihoods of fishermen and fish farmers.

Coastal aquaculture and fisheries are severely affected by cyclone and storm surges. Cyclone causes destruction of fishers’ lives and properties (boats, nets etc.). It damages fish landing and marketing centres, aquaculture infrastructure including embankments, sluice gate, hatcheries, and nurseries. In the drought prone areas, fish production decreases due to drying up of inland water bodies or limited availability of water. It also affects fish stock, growth and breeding of fishes. Moreover, drought causes disease outbreaks, reduction of fisheries seasons and declination of broods of natural SIS.

Salinity intrusion affects freshwater fisheries by decreasing inland water bodies. It decreases income and nutrition of rural poor but has positive impacts on coastal shrimp culture. Erratic rainfall adversely affect natural spawning of fish including major carp spawning in Halda river and Kaptai lake and ultimately fish production and fishers. Cold wave and fogginess also adversely affect fisheries. Cold wave affects breeding performance and growth of fish species which reduces fish production. Besides, fogginess causes fish mortality in aquaculture pond and small water bodies due to depletion of dissolve oxygen.

6.3.2 Future Impacts

It is likely that fisheries sector will face the similar problem related to climate change including variability and

49


extreme. Key difference will be frequency, intensity and scale of the problem. Similar to the present situation, flood will have both positive and negative impacts in future. Flood will affect aquaculture infrastructure, pond siltation, habitat of fish breeding at larger scale while increased area under inundation and long duration is likely to increase open water fisheries. Drought will affect fish growth, breeding & production, increase disease vulnerability, reduce fishing season and reduce broods of natural SIS. Probable impacts of cyclone are almost similar to existing impacts but severity will be increased which will affect poverty at wider scale. Salinity intrusion and erratic rainfall will also affect fish production.

6.4 Livestock

Assessment of impacts of climate change on livestock is also limited. However, it is suggested that extreme temperature and climate change related natural disasters would affect livestock significantly. High temperature would affect livestock in a number of ways: causes great discomfort as in the case of human, decreases feed intake and alters nutrient metabolism leading to high loss of energy and the combined effects of discomfort and nutrient metabolism reduces their productivity, resulting in financial loss for the farmers. Apart from extreme temperature, natural disasters such as cyclone and tidal surge as mentioned above, also cause immense loss and sufferings to livestock through destruction of forage crops as well as housing. Deaths of livestock due to cyclone and storm surge are huge in the coastal area.

The consultation workshops and key experts’ interviews state that livestock sector is badly affected by climate variability and shocks. Flood, cyclone and sea level rise have major impacts on livestock. Flood causes loss of livestock, damage pasturelands which increase fodder scarcity and diseases of livestock. Cyclone and storm surge causes huge loss of animal lives and shelters, damage of fodder, poor health and disease outbreak. Ultimately it results reduction of livestock population. Sea level rise and associated coastal inundation leads to inundation of pastureland and increase animal feed scarcity and increase incidence of animal diseases. It also reduces animal rearing coverage. Drought hampered the production of livestock, increase management cost through incidence of diseases and increase food scarcity which results poor health of livestock. Besides, salinity intrusion, temperature variation and heat wave cause harm to livestock affecting fodder land and health of poultry and other domesticated animals.

It is difficult to have perception on the impacts of climate change, variability and extremes on livestock because there is no baseline information on these exist. But it is easily perceived that death and production of livestock will decrease considerably with increasing intensity and frequency of shocks. Production of livelihood will also hampered due to decrease of grazing lands, increase death of livestock etc. These will lead to decrease health status affecting meat and milk production.

6.5 Forestry

Cyclone and storm surges along with salinity intrusion are the major shocks for forestry sector, stated by the key experts. Cyclone damages forest and scale of damage depends on severity of cyclone and storm surges. The supper cyclone Sidr destructed one-quarter of the Sundarbans and almost 100% afforested trees along its path. It has been observed that all the trees at road sides as well as homesteads of about 10 to 15 years old have been destructed by the Sidr. It means, 10-15 years of investments of individuals on homestead forestry as well as afforestation have been simply diminished within only a few hours. Salinity intrusion has also adverse effects on freshwater forest ecosystem. It affects adversely the flora and fauna composition. Flood and river bank erosion moderately affect forest and cause loss of biodiversity, mortality of flood susceptible trees and plants and destroy both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.

In the north-western part of the country, drought badly affects trees and plants due to moisture stress of the soil. Branches and leaves of trees are dried up due to lack of moisture and excessive evapo-transpiration. Besides, erratic rainfall, heat wave, and temperature variation cause harm to germination of seeds and transfer of species from one place to another. Temperature variation brings changes in species of natural hill forest.

A large number of people depend on forest resources particularly on the natural forest and forest product. Forestry sector will be affected by climate induced shocks and changes at higher scale. Flood will cause loss of trees and

50


plants, biodiversity of the affected forest and forest based industries and infrastructure. Cyclone and storm surge will simply destroy forest as well as homestead forest. Drought will affect forest causing drying up of branches and leaves and soil moisture stress. Flora and fauna composition will be severely affected by sea level rise and salinity intrusion. Temperature variation and erratic rainfall will change species composition and constraint germination which will reduce forest production considerably.

6.6 Water Supply and Sanitation

The contexts of vulnerability of water and sanitation to climate change stimuli including variability and extremes vary from region to region within the country. It is likely that the gradual change phenomena such as temperature rise and erratic behaviour of rainfall will lead to increased water demand and drought while sea level rise and salinity intrusion will deteriorate water quality in the coastal region. Climate change related extreme events particularly cyclone and storm surge will damage water supply and sanitation infrastructure particularly in the coastal region.

Increase in summer temperature will increase water demand in the urban area for drinking and bathing as well as industrial water demand for cooling system. The competition of demand may aggravate the current conflict between domestic and industrial water supplies in the urban areas. Situation will be different in the rural area where availability and quality of rivers and artesian wells and pond water in the dry season will be deteriorated.

Shortage of safe drinking water is likely to become more pronounced, especially in the coastal belt and drought prone areas in the north-west of the country. It is also likely that saline water boundary will be pushed more towards inland and vast areas will face severe water crisis in future. People now having access to fresh water will no longer enjoy this service. Due to cyclone and storm surge, huge volumes of saline water will come to the land area and contaminate freshwater ponds. These will severely damage the existing drinking water sources. For instance, ponds for the Pond Sand Filters (PSF) and dug wells may be flooded with saline water. It may also contaminate hand tube wells and other sources as well.

It is likely that unavailability and low quality will accentuate the prevailing drinking water crisis in the dry season. This will impose hardship on women and children, who are responsible for collecting drinking water for their families. Saline drinking water may also result in increase health hazards, especially for pregnant women. It appears that climate change is likely to adversely affect women more than men.

Climate is controlled mainly by the combined effects of atmosphere and hydrosphere. Naturally water is affected by climate change, variability and extremes. Climate change affects water sector in different ways. In the monsoon, excessive rainfall causes flood and water logging which results in scarcity of drinking water, water borne diseases’ outbreak, damage of crops, infrastructure (embankments, roads, educational and social institutes), reduces income sources and livelihood options, and death of human beings and other animals. In the dry season, lack of rainfall causes scarcity of water for drinking, household activities and irrigation as well as diseases like dehydration, scabies and other infectious diseases. In the coastal area, cyclone and salinity intrusion affect fresh water sources severely. Cyclone damages water infrastructure, increases contamination of fresh water sources with saline water, causes water pollution which results in scarcity of drinking water and water for irrigation. Besides this, back water effects and coastal inundation reduces sources of fresh water and thus food production and other livelihoods are also affected.

Water and sanitation will face severe impacts of climate change in future. Scarcity of drinking and irrigation water will be the major issue which will affect lives and livelihoods of the poor. Excessive water in the monsoon will damage settlements and infrastructure, disease outbreaks and even death at higher scale compared to the existing situation, whereas lack of rainfall in the monsoon will cause scarcity of water for drinking and sanitation. Drought will also create scarcity of water for irrigation which will affect crop production and decrease livelihood options of the poor. Cyclone and salinity in the coastal region will increase damage of fresh water sources and agricultural land which will also affect the livelihoods of the poor. Besides that, water borne diseases will affect human health severely.

51


Table 6.10 Damage to Infrastructure by Different Major Cyclones

EventDamage

1991 Cyclone 2007 Cyclone ‘Sidr’ 2008 Cyclone ‘Rashmi’

No. of Affected District 19 30 17

No. of Most Affected District 12

No. of Affected Upazila 102 200 27

No. of Affected

Union/Pourashava/Municipality 9 (Municipality)

1,950

(Union/Paurashava)

94 (Union)

No. of Affected Family 20,64,026 20,64,026 92,701

No. of Affected People 1,07,98,275 89,23,259 3,21,831

Fully damaged crops 1,33,272acr. 7,42,826 acr. 775 acr.

Partially damaged crops 7,91,621 acr 17,30,116 acr 18,022 acr.

No. of fully damaged household 8,19,608 5,63,877 4,360

No. of partially damaged household 8,82,750 9,55,065 12,404

No. of death people 1,38,882 3,363 7

No. of Injured People 1,39,058 55,282 --

No. of Livestock death 10,61,029

3,865

5,801

17,78,507 ----

No. of fully damaged educationalinstitutions 4,231

----

No. of partiall ydamaged educationalinstitutions 12,723

Fullydamaged roads 764 miles (earthen) 1,714 km

107

Partially damaged roads 6,361 km 6,361 km 212 km

No. of damaged bridges/culverts, 496 1,687 -----

Embankment 707 miles 1,875 km 28 km

No. of damaged trees ----- 40,65,316 -----

Source: DMB, 2008

6.7 Industry and Infrastructure

Climate change, variability and extremes have large impacts on Industry and Infrastructure. Flood and cyclone are the two major climatic events which affect this sector severely. Flood has great impacts on small and medium industries, including handloom. The key experts informed that handloom industries in Pabna, Sirajganj and Bogra are severely affected by flood and river bank erosion almost every year. Investment by handloom owners is lost. Loom workers lose their income for two to three months and often migrate to greater cities for carrying their livelihoods. This creates huge pressure on cities’ utility services, health, sanitation and sewerage systems. The women workers involved in handloom become fully unemployed during flood. They cannot either earn or migrate to other places. Other industries also suffer due to disruption of roads and communication systems, power supply networks etc. Drought also affects industrial production causing health stress of worker, seasonal migration due to scarcity of water and decreases in the number of workers in the drought season etc.

In the coastal area, industry and infrastructure are mainly affected by cyclone and storm surge. Climate change events, especially cyclone have both direct and indirect impacts on industry. It destroys buildings of industries and machineries in one hand; on the other hand, it destroys roads and other communication networks, power supply networks, water supply networks, and causes health degradation and death of workers. Moreover, salinity has large scale impacts on industry. The Khulna Paper Mill was closed due to increase water salinity of the river. It also affects machineries and materials of industries and causes loss of large investments. Erratic rainfall causes urban drainage congestion which also affects production of industries. Tourism industries are affected by coastal erosion, coastal inundation, cyclone and storm surge, scarcity of fresh water availability in the coastal region etc. The following two tables provide damage of different types of infrastructure due to major cyclones and floods which struck Bangladesh.

52


Table 6.11 Damage to Infrastructure by Recent Floods

Damage Event 2004 Flood 2007 Flood 2008 Flood

39 39 22

265 254 86

--- 67 06

2,492 1965 481

21,420 Sq. km 32000 3,394.13

74,68,128 2264933 2,25,009

3,63,37,944 9,74,461

16,05,958 acr. 7,55,047 acr. 21,62 8 acr.

10,38,176 acr 7,62,653 acr 3,26,71 7 acr.

1,55,182 62,96 5 11,44 8

1,20,45,484 8,81,92 2 75,45 3

277 3,363 7

55,28 2 --

4,973 871 ----

1,155 510 49

12,893 7,040 405

6,641 km 2,869 km 58 km

26,884 km 1,714 km 1,912.1 km

5,478 km 7,164 km 97 km

87 km 8.55 km 2,215 km

731 km 99.35 km

Source: DMB, 2008 and Relief Web, 2008

1,05,72,145

6.8 Health

Many scientists already anticipated that more frequent and more intense and severe weather events will result in increased deaths, injuries and disease in developed countries like Canada, but the biggest impact will be felt in low-lying, heavily populated areas such as Bangladesh, particularly when coupled with sea level rise attendant upon global warming (Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment, 2004). According to IPCC (2001), the global warming would increase the vector borne and water borne diseases in the tropics. Best-estimate climate change scenario indicates that the incidences of dengue may increase threefold in Indonesia (ADB, 1994b in IPCC, 1997). In fact, the increasing trend and variation of dengue occurrences are consistent with the corresponding trend and variation of temperature, which infers that the anticipated future warming in Bangladesh might increase the dengue occurrence (NAPA Study note).

No. of Affected District

No. of Affected Upazila

No. of Affected Pourashava,

No. of Affected Union

Total Affected Area

No. of Affected Family

No. of Affected People's

Fully damaged crops

Partially damaged crops

No. of fully damaged household

No. of partially damaged household

No. of death people

No. of Injured People

No. of Livestock death

No. of fully damaged educational

institutionsNo. of partially damaged educational

institutionsFully damaged roads

Partially damaged roads

No. of damaged bridges/culverts,

Embankment (Fully Damaged)

Embankment (Partially Damaged)


53

6.8.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Health- Perception

Human health suffers from different climatic variability and shocks in different ways. The experts informed that health is affected, especially during and after shocks like flood and cyclone. Slow onsets of climatic system have also impacts on health. Flood affects sources of drinking water and sanitation system through contamination which lead to out break of diarrhoea, cholera, skin diseases including scabies, drowning, snake bite and even death. Cyclone, sea level rise and salinity intrusion cause outbreaks of diarrhoea, cholera and other water borne diseases, use of saline water causes hypertension, increase blood pressure, corrosive effects due to salt in air, scabies and other skin diseases. Besides that, drought, erratic rainfall and temperature variation increase vector borne diseases, heat stroke, malnutrition, fever etc. Cold wave creates respiratory problem, especially that of children and the old.

It is already proven that different types of diseases breakout during and after flood. In future, these impacts will be more frequent and severe since intensity and frequency of flood will increase. Similarly, cyclone and storm surge will affect human health and lives severely with the increasing intensity and frequency of cyclone. Besides this, temperature variation, erratic rainfall will increase incidence of vector borne diseases like dengue, malaria. Lack of fresh water in drought prone and coastal areas will increase malnutrition, extreme poverty, bring changes in occupation, increase migration etc. The following table shows the level of impacts on health and subsequently on poverty and economic growth.

6.8.2 Impacts of Climate Change on Health- observed changes

Climate induced natural hazards are major concerns in addressing health impacts. In a massive flood in 1988, 30 million people were affected in the country where 5.37 million were affected by diarrhoea. In 1998, more than 30 million people were affected by flood but the incidence of diarrhoea has been decreased by more than 50% compared to 1988. This was mainly due to extensive measures taken by the government. In 90s, the government of Bangladesh has undertaken different effective measures to prevent diarrhoea. The major programmes are National Campaign on Health Awareness, Oral Rehydration, Increased Water Supply and Sanitation coverage etc. Besides this, the government has developed a National Policy for Water Supply and Sanitation in 1998 to promote use of safe water and sanitation practices. Moreover, some national NGOs like BRAC, Proshika, NGO Forum for Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation etc. have taken massive awareness programmes on health and awareness. But from 2000 to 2007, the incidence of diarrhoea shows an increasing trend, though most of the programmes are still operating. This is because of increased frequency of flood. In 2007, the incidences were highest in the last six years may be due to flood and recurrent floods. However, the incidence of diarrhoea is high in all the flood year. This indicates that the incidences may increase with increase of flood events. It may be noted again and again that the poor always lose more but recover less in any extreme event.

Level of Impacts

Health Poverty Economic Growth Key issues

Present Future Present Future Present Future

Flood, Erratic Rainfall Moderate

Moderate

Severe Low Moderate Very low

Very low

Low

Drought Low

ModerateLow

Very

low Low Low

Cyclone Moderate Severe Low Moderate Low Moderate

Coastal Inundation, Salinity Low Moderate Very low Low

Table 6.12 Level of Impacts of Climate Change on Health

Source: Workshop Exercise

54


Table 6.13 Incidence of Diarrhea during major flood events

Malaria is one of the major public health problems in Bangladesh. Out of 64 districts, 13 bordering districts in the east and northeast facing the Indian states of Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya and part of Myanmar belong to the high-risk malaria zone. A total of 14.7 million populations are at high-risk of malaria in the country, although there is sporadic incidence of malaria in other parts of the country as well. An estimated 1.0 million clinical cases are treated every year while 61,495 laboratories confirmed cases were reported during 2002 from routine surveillance. During 2002, a total of 598 deaths were reported. Plasmodium falciparum is the predominant infection (61-71%) and An. dirus is the principal vector (WHO, 2004). The available literature says that Malaria’s sensitivity to climate is illustrated in desert and highland fringe areas where rainfall and temperature, respectively are critical parameters for disease transmission (WHO, WMO, UNEP, 2002). The occurrence of malaria in 1997 in Chittagong, Khagrachari, Bandarban, Cox’s Bazar area critically supports this hypothesis (HPSR, 2000).

Dengue is another major climate sensitive disease in Bangladesh. It usually spreads over tropical and sub-tropical region. According to Koopman et al. (1991), an increase of 3–4˚C in average temperature may double the reproduction rate of the dengue virus. It is also evident that erratic rainfall and monsoon flooding are strongly correlated for breeding Aedes mosquito, especially in urban, fringe and high elevated areas (source: www.geocities.com). Breaking News of Dengue Website, July 2001 states that Intermittent rains and reactivation of aedes larvae from the unclean breeding sites are believed to be the reasons of outbreak of dengue. It is reported that 3 billion world population are at risk of dengue fever and 60% of them are located in the 10 south-east asian countries. Bangladesh is the 7th country in south-east asia with DHF reported in 2000. In 2001, it was reported that 60,000 people had become the carrier of dengue (Breaking News, Dengue Website, 9 August 2009). Children are the most sufferers of dengue epidemic. The following table shows the historical outbreak of dengue fever in Bangladesh.

Trend of average maximum temperature and incidences of malaria

(1988-2008)

28. 00

28. 50

29. 00

29. 50

30. 00

30. 50

31. 00

31. 50

32. 00

32. 50

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Year

Tem

perature (

C)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Incid

ences o

f

ma

laria

Ma x t emp

Ma laria

Figure 6.2: Relationship between Temperature and Malarial Incidences

Major FloodAffected Population (in

million) Incidence of Diarrhea (in

million)

1988 30 5.37

1998 30.6 2.06

2000 3 1.56

2004 36 2.33

2007 10 2.34

2008 1 1.9


55

In Bangladesh, out break of dengue was first documented in 1964 but epidemic was reported in 2000. Dengue remained almost unknown to the country due to lack of knowledge, technology, research, skilled professionals etc. The table 6.15 shows that death from dengue has decreased over the period. This is mainly due to increase in knowledge, awareness, research and measures taken by different public and private sectors.

Table 6.15: Dengue Incidences in Bangladesh

Source: www.geocities.com

6.9 Education

Flood has multi dimensional impacts on education. Impacts of slow onset or climate variability on education are not remarkable but the rapid onsets like flood and cyclone have severe impacts on education. It damages school buildings and houses, displaces children and detaches them from schools, loss of study materials, use of schools as shelters in the non-flooded areas hamper continuation of education, and increases the rate of dropout. In a sense, education is totally disrupted during flood in the affected areas. Cyclone is another devastating shock for education. It damages education infrastructure, increases poverty, increases drop out rate etc. Drought has also negative impacts on education. Children of the drought affected areas are engaged in income generating activities and suffer from malnutrition. Scarcity of drinking and other water resources also lead to low attendance of the children in their schools.

Key expert interviews show that flood and cyclone will have very severe impacts on education by damaging school buildings and study materials, displacing children from one place to another and so on. These impacts will affect the poor very severely because the rich could migrate and settle in the cities but the poor do not have that capacity. Salinity will affect education in a different way, i.e. opportunity of shrimp farming and fry collection will encourage the poor children to be engaged in these activities to carry on with their livelihood.

Table 6.14 Dengue outbreak history in Bangladesh

Period Description

1964 First documented out break of dengue in Bangladesh

1977 – 78 Few cases of DF were found in a Clandestine Survey by IEDCR

1982 – 83 Out of 2456 blood samples taken, 278 found DEN- 1

1984 – 86 21 samples collected, 3 found positive by HI Test.

Up to 1986 Major cities were free to DHF.

1997 Cross sectional serological survey at CMCH tested 255-paired sera in which 35 were positive cases

1999 Few death cases were reported in DHF

2000 Currently an epidemic has been reported in this country

2001 Epidemic has been reported in this country.

2002 Epidemic has been reported in this country.

Source: NAPA study note

Year Dengue Case Death CFR%

2000 5,550/10,000 93/100 1.7%/1.0%

2001 2,430/25,000 44/100 1.8%/0.4%

2002 6,132/60,000 58/100 0.9%/0.2%

2003 886 10 1.1

2004 2000 7 0.4

2 005 500+ up to Oct - -

Total 17,498/95,000 212/300 1.2%/0.3%

56


Key issues Probable Impacts Level of impacts

Flood

Drought - - - - Cyclone

Coastal inundation

Salinity

Table 6.16 Impacts of different disasters on Education Infrastructure and subsequent impacts

Destruction of infrastructure School damage Material lose

School building will damage Book and other materials lost

People who are educated, richthey will migrate to better citiesor country, but the poor,uneducated and unskilled people will suffer severely

Opportunity of shrimp farmingand fry collection has increased, but the overall situation will be severe

Very Severe Very Low Very Low

Very Severe Very Severe Moderate

Very Severe

Very Severe

Identifiedimpacts

Poverty

Very Severe Very Severe

Very Severe Very Severe

Economic growth

57


3705254

39592942

833025

75

58

109

2427226

58844 102

72

192

366

784435

1219786

Cy clone Sidr: A C as e Study

Type of Destruction Institutions Full Destruction Partial

Destruction FormalPrimary Education Non-formal

Subtotal Primary EducationFormalSecondary Education Non-formal

Subtotal Secondary Education Pre primary learning centers

Adult Literacy centers

Non-formal Education

Post literacy Education Centers

Subtotal Non-formal Education TOTAL 2429

Source: GoB, 2008

An estimated 5,927 educational institutions were fully destroyed or partially damaged by Cyclone Sidr, resulting in a total value of damage and losses of BDT 4.7 billion.

However, the education sector's needs are approximately BDT 7.8 billion (US$ 113 million), due primarily to increased cost of constructing new schools that would also serve as emergency shelters.

The highest numbers of fully destroyed primary schools are located in Barguna (230), Pirojpur (149), Patuakhali (98), Barisal (91), and Bagerhat (68). The highest numbers of partially destroyed primary schools are in Barisal (632), Patuakhali (550), Pirojpur (401), Jhalakathi (340), and Barguna (335). The worst affected; both fully and partially destroyed, schools are in Barisal (723).

According to the initial assessment, a total of 9,655 educational institutions have been fully or partially destroyed in 19 of the 30 cyclone affected districts. Table below summarizes the extent of destruction to Formal as well as Non-Formal Educational Institutions

In the twelve badly affected districts (namely Bagerhat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Gopalgonj, Jhalakathi, Khulna, Madaripur, Patuakhalki, Priojpur, Satkhira, and Shariatpur) an estimated 4,879 registered secondary and higher secondary schools, colleges and madrashahs existed prior to the disaster. Out of these, a total of 3,736 (76.6 percent) were either fully destroyed or partially damaged, of which 787 (16 percent) were fully destroyed. It was found that most of the affected institutions were made of C.I. sheet roofing with wooden pillar and bamboo fencing.

The Ministry of Education has decided to undertake a short-run program to resume academic activities in the cyclone-torn institutions by erecting temporary structures, providing books and study materials, waiving examination fees and rescheduling public examinations. In the long run, the Government has planned to construct academic building-cum-cyclone shelters in the cyclone affected coastal areas.

Climate Change Povertyand Economic Growth


61

Most Impacted Sectors Links with PRSP Links withMDGs

Temperature rise and drought

North-west Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries) Water Energy Health

Coastal AreaIsland

Floods

Cyclone andStorm Surge1

Coastal and Marine Zone

Drainage congestion

Coastal Area Urban South West

- -

Source: Modified from NAPA Bangladesh

Central Region North East Region Char land

Climate and Related Elements

Critical Vulnerable Areas

Sea Level Riseand Salinity Intrusion

Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock) Water (water logging, drinking water, urban) Human settlement Energy Health

Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock) Water (urban, industry) Infrastructure Human settlement Health Disaster Energy

Marine Fishing Infrastructure Human settlement Life and property

Water (Navigation) Agriculture (crop)

Strategic Block I, II, III, IV & V v

Strategic Block I, II, III, IV & V



Goal 1, 2, 3and 7

Goal 1, 2, 3and 7

Goal 1, 3 and 7

Goal 1, 3 and 7

7. Relationship among climate change, poverty, economic growth and sustainable development is multidimensional and complex. It is recognized in the scientific and negotiating community that climate change induced impacts will put additional challenges to many of the Millennium Development Goals and targets in general, and poverty and hunger, and environmental sustainability in particular.

It is revealed from the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Bangladesh that different climatic elements will impact different sectors in a different scale by different geographical areas. The following table shows different climatic elements and their impacts by different regions and their link with different strategic blocks of Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper and Millennium Development Goals.

Table 7.1: Climatic Elements, critical vulnerable areas and impacted sectors and Links with PRSP and MDGs

7.1 Distribution of Poverty

Despite the recent macro economic achievements, poverty is still pervasive and endemic in Bangladesh. According to the Household Expenditure Survey (HES) of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), using the most commonplace definition, about half of the population could be considered poor in the mid-1990s, while a quarter of the population could be considered extreme poor (WB, 1997). Among them, the bottom 10 percent of the population are steeped in severe deprivation so much that they require substantial transfers to keep them from starvation and to reach a level that is considered micro-credit worthy (Farashuddin, 2001).

Levels of poverty vary substantially across the country and strong correlation was found with spatial distribution

62



63

Area Population Poor Population

density/Sq. kmRe gion

Square Km

% Crore %

Poverty Incidence%

Crore % Poor All

Barisal 13297 9.01 0.89 6.42 0.46 8.3 346 669

Chittagong 33771 22.88 2.67 19.25 0.91 16.4 270 790

Dhaka 31120 21.09 4.47 32.23 1.43 25.8 460 143 6

Khulna 22273 15.09 1.62 11.68 0.74 13.3 332 727

Rajsh ahi 34514 23.39 3.34 24.08 1.71 30.8 495 967

Sylhet 12596 8.54 0.88 6.34 0.30 5.4 238 699

Bangladesh 417571 100 13.87 100

52.0

34.0

32.0

45.7

51.2

33.8

40.0 5.55 100 376 940

Source: BBS

Table 7.2: Number and Density of Poor people by Region 2005

of food insecurity. The United Nations World Food Programme has reported that the poorest upazilas can be found in the north-west, the coastal belt, Mymensingh, Netrakona, Bangdarban and Rangamati districts. In terms of absolute numbers, districts with more than one million people living in extreme poverty include Sirajganj, Naogaon, Bogra, Mymensingh and Chittagong (GOB and FAO, 2004).

Given the size of population and poverty incidence by administrative divisions, it shows that the largest number of poor lives in Rajshahi followed by Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Barisal and Sylhet districts. The following Table provides information about density of the poor by divisions.

Recent analysis by General Economic Division revealed that the proportion of poor is higher compared to its proportion of population in the lagging divisions. On the other hand, proportion of poor is lower compared to its proportion of population in the forward divisions. In 2005, the proportion of population in Khulna division was 11.68% and the proportion of poor was 13.3 %. The proportion of population in Barisal division was 6.42% whereas the proportion of poor was 8.3%. The proportion of population was 24.08% in Rajshahi division and the proportion of poor was 30.8%. In Dhaka division the proportion of population was 32.23% and the proportion of poor was 25.8%. The proportion of population in Chittagong division was 19.25% while the proportion of poor was 5.4%. This distribution holds true for all districts as well.

7.2 Intensity and Severity of Poverty

Like the poverty incidence the intensity of poverty, measured by the poverty gap, is much higher in Barisal, Rajshahi and the Khulna division. Similar is the case with the severity of poverty, as measured by this squared poverty gap. However, one observation can be made with respect to incidence, intensity and severity of poverty across Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet. Although, incidence of poverty in Chittagong is higher than that of Dhaka and Sylhet, its intensity and severity are lower than those of the other two divisions respectively. It implies that poor people in Chittagong are better off than their counter parts in Sylhet and Dhaka.

64


Level of Impacts (%)Climatic Events

Identified Impacts Poverty Economic growth

Present Future (2100)



Flood 50 80 50 80 12 17

Table 7.3: Poverty Gap and Squared Poverty gap by Region 2005

7.3 Climate Change Impacts on Poverty and Economic Growth

Impacts of climate change on poverty and economic growth has been assessed based on perception and quantitative analysis. The quantitative analysis has been done based on dependence of household on different sectors and exposure to different climatic events and their frequency. The following section provides summary of findings.

7.3.1 Agriculture

The study has made an attempt to assess adverse effects of climate change, variability and extremes on poverty and economic growth related to crop agriculture. Discussion with experts focuses on shocks and time of occurrence. It has been revealed that 50% reduction of crop production would increase poverty at the same percentage. Assessment of impacts on economic growth is difficult to find but it appears that it could reduce 12% of GDP contribution for that particular time. Effects of cyclone are more severe than flood. The experts agreed that 60% damage of crop by a cyclone increases poverty at the same percentage affecting their resources and livelihoods, and decreases economic growth by 15% for the respective period. Thus, MDG 1 (Poverty eradication and hunger) is badly affected and pushed backward. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report states that the intensity and frequency of both flood and cyclone will increase in future. So, these two climatic shocks are a major challenge for Bangladesh in implementing PRSP and attaining the MDGs.

The consultation workshop with the key experts suggested that changes in flood and cyclone characteristics will affect crop agriculture very severely, which will affect poverty at the same scale. The poor will suffer mostly because they have less capacity to respond to these shocks. The economic growth of the particular sector will also be affected considerably. The experts suggested that reduction may rise up to 70-80% and impacts on economic growth could be 17%. Moreover, drought and erratic rainfall will also reduce crop production by 40% and 30% respectively, which will affect poverty moderately and economic growth at a lower scale. The following table shows the level of present and future impacts of different climatic events on crop agriculture, poverty and economic growth.

Table 7.4: Present and future impacts of different climatic events on crop agriculture, poverty and economic growth.

Poverty Gap Squared Poverty GapDivision

Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban

Barisal 15.5 16.3 10.7 6.3 6.6 4.3

Chittagong 6.3 6.5 5.6 1.7 1.7 1.6

Dhaka 6.9 8.6 4.0 2.1 2.7 1.1

Khulna 10.8 10.4 12.3 3.5 3.2 4.6

Rajshahi 11.9 12.0 11.4 3.8 3.8 3.9

Sylhet 7.2 7.6 4.5 2.1 2.2 1.5

National

Source: BBS

9.0 9.8 6.5 2.9 3.1 2.1

65


Level of Impacts (%)Climatic Events

Identified Impacts Poverty Economic growth

Erratic rainfall 20 30 10 20 2 4

Temperature variation 05 7 2 5 1 2

Heat wave - 2 - 1 - 1

Fogginess 10 15 2 3 1 1

Source: Consultation workshop with key experts, 2008

Level of impacts Key issues

Identified impacts Poverty Economic growth

Present Future(2100)



Flood and river bank erosion Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate

Drought Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Cyclone and Storm surge Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate

Sea level rise - Severe - Severe - Severe

Salinity Intrusion Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Erratic Rainfall Moderate Low Low Low Low Low

Temperature Variation Low Moderate Low Low Low Low

Heat waveave - Low - Low - Low

Cold Wave Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low

Fogginess Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low

Incidence of Pest and diseases - Moderate - Low - VeryLow

Source: Key experts’ workshop

Moderate

Drought 25 40 8 30 2 5

Cyclone 60 70 60 70 15 17

Coastal inundation 10 15 5 8 1 2

7.3.2 Fisheries

The workshops and key experts’ interviews revealed that flood and river bank erosion and cyclone and storm surge have severe impacts on fisheries. It has been stated that these impacts affect poverty and economic growth moderately. The experts explained that these shocks damage aquaculture infrastructure and cause fish loss. This leads to loss of livelihoods of the poor fishermen and decrease nutrition status of the rural poor. Moreover, frequent warnings of cyclone lead the fishermen to stay at home for longer periods and thus their income decreased which increased their poverty level. Besides that, drought, salinity intrusion and erratic behaviour of rainfall affect moderately and as a result poverty and economic growth are also affected moderately. It is noted here that poverty includes only the poor who are dependent on this particular sector. Similarly, the economic growth includes only the growth of this particular sector and not national economic growth.

The impacts of climate change on the fisheries sector will increase the poverty of the particular livelihood group and economic growth of the sector. Severe impacts of flood, drought, cyclone and storm surge, sea level rise and salinity intrusion will affect poverty of the livelihood group severely as stated by the key experts of the fisheries sector. Income of the poor, especially who are dependent on fisheries will reduce considerably. Moreover, they will suffer from malnutrition due to reduction of fishing. Economic growth of fisheries sector will also be affected moderately.

Table 7.5: Present and future impacts of different climatic events on fisheries, poverty and economic growth

66


Table 7.6: Present and future impacts of different climatic events on livestock, poverty and economic growth

Level of impacts

Identified impacts Poverty Economic growthKey issues

Present Future Present Future Present Future

Flood and river bank erosion

Severe - Moderate Severe Moderate Severe

Drought Moderate - Moderate Severe Moderate Severe

Cyclone andStorm surge

Severe - Severe Severe Severe Severe

Sea level rise Severe - Severe Severe Severe Severe

Salinity Intrusion Moderate - Moderate Severe Moderate Severe

Erratic Rainfall Low - Low Low Low Low

TemperatureVariation

Moderate - Moderate - Moderate -

Heat wave Moderate - Moderate Low Moderate Low

Cold Wave Moderate - Moderate Very Low Moderate Very Low

Fogginess - - - - - -

Incidence of Pestand diseases

Moderate Moderate Moderate


7.3.3 Livestock

Livestock rearing is an important source of income and livelihood options for the rural poor of the country. Pertinently, the impact of climate change on livestock affects the livelihood of the rural poor. It reduces livelihood opportunities, income and employment opportunities of the poor villagers. The experts of livestock sector perceive that severe impacts of climate change and extremes on livestock affect poverty moderately. But the impacts of sea level rise affects poverty and economic growth of this particular sector severely as stated by the key experts. Drought, salinity intrusion and heat wave affect the sector moderately and consequently, both poverty and economic growth are moderately affected. Thus, the impacts of climate change on livestock affect poverty reduction activities and in attaining the MDGs.

It is difficult to have a perception on the impacts of climate change, variability and extremes on livestock because there is no baseline information on these issues. But it is easily perceived that death and production of livestock will decrease considerably with increasing intensity and frequency of shocks. Production of livelihood will also be hampered due to decrease of grazing lands, increase in death of livestocks etc. These will lead to decrease in the health status affecting meat and milk production.

7.3.4 Forestry

The impacts of extreme weather events on forestry affect poverty and economic growth in different ways. Poverty is severely affected by cyclone in the context of severity of impact on forestry. Livelihoods of the poor and marginal communities in the forest areas, especially in the Sundarbans area mostly depend on forest resources. Very pertinently, impacts of shocks on forestry affect the poor of that particular livelihood group. The experts perceive that salinity intrusion severely affect forest trees and resources especially in the coastal region.

67


Table 7.7: Present and future impacts of different climatic events on forestry, poverty and economic growth

Level of impacts

Identified impacts Poverty Economic growthKey issues

PresentFuture (2100)

PresentFuture(2100)

PresentFuture(2100)

Flood and river bank erosion Moderate Severe Low Severe Low Severe

Drought Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Cyclone and Storm surge Severe Severe Severe Very Severe

Severe Very Severe

Sea level rise Moderate VerySevere

Low Severe Low Severe

Salinity Intrusion Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate

Moderate

Severe

Erratic Rainfall Low Very Low

Very Low

Temperature Variation Low Moderate Low Low Low Low

Heat wave VeryLow

Low Very Low

Low Very Low

Low

Cold Wave - VeryLow

- Very Low

- Very Low

Fogginess - Very Low

- Very Low

- Very Low

Incidence of Pest and diseases - - - - - -


This has moderate impacts on poverty and economic growth. The other shocks like flood and drought have moderate impacts on forestry which has low impacts on poverty and economic growth. Besides this, erratic rainfall and temperature variation have low impacts on forestry and lower impacts on poverty.

Sea level rise will affect forest coverage in the coastal areas very severely in future as stated by the key experts. The reason behind this is submergence of brackish forest species and disappearance of inland trees and plants due to increase soil salinity by sea level rise. Flood, cyclone and salinity intrusion will have severe impact on forest resources. Poverty will be affected severely because the livelihood group depending on forest resources will lose their income source. Economic growth of forest sector will also be hampered severely due to increasing frequency and intensity of climate induced shocks.

7.3.5 Water and Sanitation

Water is such an element that any effect on water affects development of any sector. Both slow and rapid onsets related to climate change have direct impact on water. The consultation workshops and interviews state that sea level rise affects water very severely, whereas flood and river bank erosion, cyclone and storm surges and heat wave affect severely. The results of these effects affect poverty and economic growth moderately because crop damage, disease outbreaks, loss of livelihood options, damage of infrastructure increases poverty affecting economic growth of different sectors.

68


Effects of climate change on water will be more severe compared to existing situation. Moderate impacts on water and sanitation will turn into severe to very severe as stated by the key experts. It is also noted that these impacts will affect poverty at greater scale.

Table 7.8: Present and future impacts of different climatic events on water and sanitation, poverty and economic growth

7.3.6 Health

It is revealed from the consultations that severe impacts of flood, cyclone and sea level rise on health affect poverty and economic growth severely causing malnutrition and health degradation. Drought and erratic rainfall have moderate impacts on health and affects poverty and economic growth at a low to moderate scale. The impacts on health affect poverty because the poor has less capacity to respond to those impacts.

7.3.7 Education

Education is one of the major elements for accelerating poverty eradication and economic growth. Pertinently, impact on education will affect poverty eradication and economic growth. The consultations reveal that severe impacts of flood and cyclone on education affects poverty and economic growth severely whereas a moderate impact of sea level rise’s affect on education affects poverty and economic growth at a low scale.

7.4 Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic Growth

This study made an attempt to analyse impacts of climate change on poverty and economic growth against different climate change vulnerability contexts, particularly extreme events. It has followed the following logic to assess impacts on poverty and economic growth.

Impacts on Poverty = Level of Exposure = Frequency of Hazard x Number of exposed household of different livelihood categories

Impacts on Economic Growth = Sum of impacts of different sectors. But due to lack of data on impacts it has only considered agriculture as a first step to understand the problems and also consider flood as one of the key hazards.

Level of impacts

Identified impacts Poverty Economic growth Key issues


Present Future (2100 ) Present Future (2100)

Flood and river bank erosion Severe Very Severe

Moderate Very Severe

Moderate Very Severe

Drought Moderate Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Severe

Cyclone and Storm surge Severe Very Severe

Severe Very Severe

Severe Very Severe

Sea level rise Very Severe

Very Severe

Severe Very Severe

Severe Very Severe

Salinity Intrusion Moderate Severe Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Erratic Rainfall Moderate Very Severe

Low Very Severe

Low Very Severe

Temperature Variation - ---- -

- ---- -

Heat wave Severe Severe Moderate Severe Moderate Severe

Cold Wave - Severe - Severe - Severe

Fogginess

Incidence of Pest and diseases - - - - - -



69

Boro

Year Production Loss Loss + Production % of Loss

1994 6538170 139080 6677250 2.08

1995 7221020

Table 7.10: Loss of Boro Rice due to Flood (in M Ton)

1996 7459920

1997 8137330

1998 10551900 23558

-

-

-

-

-

10575458 0.22

1999 0

2000 11920940

2001 11765500

2002 12221850

2003 12837230

2004 13837060

Source: Year Book of Agricultural Statistics, 2005

7.4.1 Impacts of Hazards on Sectors

Table 7.9 shows loss of Boro crop production by cyclone, Storm Surge and Hail storm over the last 10 years. In 2000 and 2004, wind based shocks affected Boro production in coastal districts and north-east region and caused 6.35% and 10.65% loss of production respectively. Therefore, the increasing trend of these hazards will eventually affect the Boro rice production more intensively in future.

Table 7.9: Damage to Boro rice Production due to Cyclone, Storm Surge and Hail storm (in M. Ton)

Usually Aus and Aman rice are affected by flood on a regular basis. In the year 1998 and 2004, two catastrophic floods occurred and damaged the Aus and Aman production significantly. Available data shows that Aus production was decreased by 14.53% and 9.12% in 1998 and 2004, respectively. While, Aman production decreased by 10.70% and 8.86% in 1998 and 2004, respectively. These two main crops are affected and damages are caused at different extents by flood almost every year. However, historical data of flood shows that intensity and frequency of severe flood is in increasing trend which reflects higher damage of these two main crops. Table 7.10 to 7.12 shows loss of production of Boro, Aus and Aman due to flood.

YearRegion 1994

514610269000

186040200400

65860364600114660

19530

1734700

01734700

1995555980300320

232540219870

77410424040120510

21500

1952170

01952170

1996568630251090

243810242950

88110447600134680

25860

2002730

250122027742

1.23

1997597500289490

262710251600

95830593260138150

28510

2257050

2257050

1998701090376170

321060342800194350732810214930

13660

2896870

2896870

2000762830666350

543080331350608300517220664430591110

4684670

3174605002130

6.35

2001745360676750

513710323150581460616810691480524420

4673140

184404691580

0.39

2002800970681580

552520284220623030649750775420476420

4843910

2477605091670

4.87

2003848410697760

551230343150596650787060720670536,560

5081490

156105097100

0.31

2004675563665129

359728221808440382618543651199539576

4171928

4972204669148

10.65

SylhetChittagong

NoakhaliFaridpurBarisalJessoreKhulnaPatuakhali

TotalProduction

LossProduction+ loss% of Loss

Source: Agricultural Statistics, 2005

70



Table 7.13: Change in Contribution to GDP due to CC related hazards

GDP of three consecutive year (Million Taka)

Crop Agriculture Hazard profile

Previous yr. Next yr. Same yr. Average

PY & N Y

Production

Decrease

Decrease

in %Cyclone- Nov, 1970 - - -

Cyclone-Nov. 1971 (2) - -

Cyclone-Dec; Tornado-

April, 1973

197661 22212 22352 109936.5 87584.5 79.67

Cyclone-Aug., Nov.;

Riverine flood 1974

22352 25477 22212 23914.5 1702.5 7.12

Table 7.12: Loss of AMAN Rice due to Flood (in M.Ton)

Aman

Year Production Loss Loss + Production % of Loss 1993

0.045.81

0.09

0.07

10.70

1.730.32

1.17

0.38

8.86

85074859332325

9560457

8856140

8663207

242605

1144690010761060

11246840

11564470

10774117

115313

3535541995

8677

6240

927357

242605

19797034870

131890

43880

954500

9551780

8849900

11248930

9819617

11520590

11114950

10726190

85039508790330

7735850

19941995

1996

1997

1998

1999

20002001

2002

2003

2004


Table 7.11: Loss of AUSRice due to Flood (in M Ton)

Aus

Year Production 0

1790670

1676020

1870750

1874730

1616880

8979640

17808690

35617380

71234760

1500470

Loss + Production Loss71835 71835

1822235

1852990

1883308

1904847

1891755

26510

8979640

17836230

35669410

71412640

1651060

31565

176970

12558

30117

274875

26510

-

27540

52030

177880

150590

% of Loss1993

1994 1.73

1995 9.55

1996 0.67

1997 1.58

1998 14.53

1999

2000

2001 0.15

2002 0.15

2003 0.25

2004 9.12


7.4.2 Impacts of Hazards on GDP

1998 and 2004 were two years of multi-hazards, including severe floods (both riverine and flash). Contribution of crop agriculture to GDP has been reduced by 2.48% and 2.38% respectively. Compared to the percentage of loss of AMAN and AUS production with reduction of contribution of crop agriculture to GDP in 1998 and 2004, it is clear that the loss of production has posed a great impact on National GDP of the particular sector.



71

Cyclone-May; Drought

1975

22212 24457 25477 23334.5 -2142.5

Cyclone-May; Tornado-

Apr, 1977

24457 26941 27381 25699 -1682 -6.55

Drought- 1978-79 27381 26841 26941 27111 170 0.63

3.63

-9.18

Cyclone- Dec.; Drought

1981

28481 28794 27597 28637.5 1040.5

Drought- 1982 27597 29120 28794 28358.5 -435.5 -1.54

Cyclone- Oct & Nov 1983 28794 29155 29120 28974.5 -145.5 -0.50

Cyclone- May 1985 29155 139596 139599 84375.5 -55223.5 -65.45

Cyclone- 1986 139599 137119 139596 138359 -1237 -0.89

Riverine flood-1987 139596 134509 137119 137052.5 -66.5 -0.05

Source: BBS, Wikipedia, CDMP, SMRC.

Cyclone- Nov.; Riverine

flood 1988

137119 150828 134509 143973.5 9464.5 6.57

Tornado- April; Drought; 134509 152575 150828 143542 -7286 -5.08

Riverine flood 1989

Cyclone- Apr, May, 1991 152575 156392 154640 154483.5 -156.5 -0.10

Cyclone- May,Nov 1992 154640 157203 156392 155921.5 -470.5 -0.30

Tornado-Jan & May;

Riverine flood; River

erosion-June, 1993

156392 148068 157203 152230 -4973 -3.27

Cyclone- Apr.; Drought

1994

157203 152168 148068 154685.5 6617.5 4.28

Cyclone-Nov. 1995 (2);

Tornado-Sep. 1995

148068 255376 152168 201722 49554 24.57

Tornado- May, 1996 152168 258098 255376 205133 -50243 -24.49

Cyclone- May, Sept.,

Tornado- Oct. 1997

255376 266136 258098 260756 2658 1.02

Cyclone-May, Nov.,

Tornado-July; Riverine

Flood 1998

258098 287688 266136 272893 6757 2.48

Tornado- March1999 266136 305481 287688 285808.5 -1879.5 -0.66

-4.28Tornado-Sep.; Riverine

flood; Flash flood 2000

287688 298187 305481 292937.5 -12543.5

Tornado-May,; Nor’wester-

Apr , 2003

306765 320339 319875 313552 -6323 -2.02

Tornado & Nor’wester-Apr;

Riverine flood; flash flood,

2004

319875 336439 320339 328157 7818 2.38

GDP of three consecutive year (Million Taka)

Crop Agriculture Hazard profile

Previous yr. Next yr. Same yr. Average

PY & N YProduction

Decrease

Decrease

in %

72



Agri/For/Live

23%

Fishery

2%

Agri Labor

18%

Non-agri labor

3%

Handloom

0%

Industry

1%

Business

16%

Transport

4%

Service

15%

Other

18%

Agri/For/Live

37%

Fishery

1%Agri Labor

26%

Non-agri labor

4%

Handloom

2%

Industry

1%

Business

12%

Transport

3%

Service

6%

Other

8%

Agri/For/Live

30%

Fishery

1%

Agri Labor

16%

Non-agri labor

3%

Handloom

1%

Industry

1%

Business

16%

Transport

4%

Service

14%

Other

14%

7.4.3 Impacts of Flood on Different Types of Livelihoods

Exposure of households to flood varies by livelihood groups, and agriculture and agricultural labour dependent families are most affected due to their higher engagement in this sector. In Rajshahi division, 63% of households involved in agriculture and agricultural labour are exposed to flood. Therefore, household dependent on agriculture is the most vulnerable livelihood group in this division. Similarly in Khulna, Barisal and Sylhet division, 54%, 51% and 49% of households are exposed to flood respectively which is significantly higher in number than those of Dhaka and Chittagong divisions.

Agri/For/Live

31%

Fishery

2%Agri Labor

23%

Non-agri labor

4%

Handloom

1%

Industry

1%

Business

16%

Transport

4%

Service

9%Other 9%

7.4.3.1 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Khulna Division 7.4.3.2 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Chittagong Division

7.4.3.3 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Rajshahi Division 7.4.3.4 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Dhaka Division

73



7.4.3.7 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Bangladesh

7.4.4 Impacts of Cyclone on Different Types of Livelihood

There are 19 districts in the coastal belt of Bangladesh and table 03 shows the most vulnerable ones depending on frequency of being affected by cyclone. The coastal districts are eventually vulnerable to cyclone due to gevographical location but among those 19 coastal districts Patuakhali, Barisal, Cox’s Bazar, Khulna, Bhola, Noakhali, Chittagong and Barguna are the most vulnerable districts depending on percentage of household being affected by cyclones in the past 37 years.

It is a matter of great regret that almost all the districts of Bangladesh have had bad experience of suffering from flood except for the hilly region of the country. Therefore, to assess the actual impact of flood, a district wise vulnerability and damage assessment is required. In this case, the percentage of household involved in agriculture in each flood affected district has been calculated and their vulnerability has been assessed through multiplying the percentage with frequency of flood. Some details have been presented in the next section of the report.

Agri/For/Live

27%

Fishery

3%

Agri Labor

22%

Non-agri labor

8%

Handloom

0%

Industry

1%

Business

12%

Transport

2%

Service

6%

Other

19%Agri/For/Live

30%

Fishery

5%Agri Labor

21%

Non-agri labor

5%

Handloom

0%

Industry

1%

Business

15%

Transport

2%

Service

9%

Other

12%

Agri/For/Live

31%

Fishery

2%

Agri Labor

20%

Non-agri labor 4%

Handloom

1%

Industry

1%

Business

14%

Transport

4%

Service

10%

Other

13%

Cyclone 1970-2007

District Times Total HH HH involved in

Agri.

HH affected

in %

Vulnerability %

Dhaka 1666181 70827 4.25 4.251

Table 7.14: Exposure of Household Involved in Agriculture to Cyclone

7.4.3.5 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Sylhet Division 7.4.3.6 % of HH Exposed to Flood in Barisal Division

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7.4.5 Causes and Impacts Relationship

It is evident from the above sections that adverse impacts of climate related issues on different sectors and region will vary and at the same time impacts on poverty and economic growth will also vary. It is found that adverse impacts in the coastal area are severe compared to other regions and impacts on poverty and economic growth are severe as well. Flood affects different sectors at different scale and ultimate impacts on poverty and economic growth will be moderate. The following diagrams show level of impacts of climate related issues and their subsequent impacts on poverty and economic grow.

Cyclone 1970-2007

District Times Total HH HH involved in

Agri.

HH affected

in %

Vulnerability %

Sylhet 412708 70326 17.04 17.04

Bagerhat 319004 86438 27.10 27.10

Kushtia 376927 105568 28.01 28.01

Jessore

1

1

1

1

1

3

12

8

5

8

10

8

9

519400 164039 31.58 31.58

Faridpur 345578 121069 35.03 35.03

Barguna 176648 67810 38.39 115.16

Chittagong 1180682 122180 10.35 124.18

Noakhali 451580 79944 17.70 141.63

Bhola 325073 93812 28.86 144.29

Khulna 486611 89928 18.48 147.84

Cox's Bazar 290131 57465 19.81 198.07

Barisal 463319 114938 24.81 198.46

Patuakhali 282570 97221 34.41 309.65

Source: SMRC, 2003, Wikipedia, DAE and BBS, 2007

75



Figure 7.1 Existing Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth in

Relation to impacts on Sectors-Flood Prone Areas

Poverty

Economic Growth

Level of impacts

Very severe SevereModerate LowVery low

Crop Agriculture

Fisheries

Forestry

Livestock

Industry &Infrastructure

Water and Sanitation

Health

Education

Climate Change Vulnerability

(Riverine Flood,FlsahFlood, River

Band Erision

Flood Prone Areas

Sectors

Level ofimpacts

Very severe Severe Moderate Low Very low

Poverty

Economic Growth

Crop Agriculture

Fisheries

Forestry

Livestock

Industry and Infrastructure


Health

Education

Climate Change vulnerabilities (Cyclone,

SLR, Salinity)

Coastal Area

Sectors

Figure 7.2 Existing Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty andEconomic growth in Relation to impacts on Sectors-Coastal Area

76



Climate Change vulnerabilities (Drought, Temperature Variation

Erratic Rainfall)

Level ofimpacts

Very severe Severe Moderate Low Very low No impact

Poverty

Economic Growth

Crop Agriculture

Fisheries

Forestry

Livestock



Health

Education

Drought Prone Areas

Sectors

Figure 7.3 Existing Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty and Economic growth in Relation to impacts on Sectors- Drought Prone Areas



77

Existing CopingStrategies/Practices



79

8. There are a number of strategies and practices which have evolved over time to deal with the adverse effects of climate and non-climatic stresses. Most of them have evolved as a reactive response to problems. However, many of them have potential to address future climate change and associated problems. The following section summarizes the existing coping strategies and practices by different sectors derived from stakeholder consultations and expert interviews.

8.1 Crop Agriculture

• BARI & BINA have undertaken research strategies on development of risk tolerant variety (drought and salt-tolerant & short duration pulses and oil seed crop varieties, including drought tolerant wheat)

• BRRI is strengthening their research strategy to adopt rice cultivation with changing climatic situation:

- Cultivation of BR 42, 43 & BINA Dhan 7 as drought tolerant crops

- Local variety is cultivated in low-lying coastal areas

• Research is going on to develop new varieties for coastal region through cross breeding between salt tolerant and submerged varieties and BRRI already released salt-tolerant rice variety (Bridhan 47) for the coastal region

• Farmers use ash in the field to keep the soil warm during winter

• Farmers are adopting some innovative practices(viz. zero tillage, priming of seeds during sowing, mulching, relay cropping, dry seeding, rain water harvest, floating bed vegetable cultivation, sorjan system, short duration varieties etc.) in the drought prone area

• Farmers are adopting some innovative practices (viz. zero tillage, sorjan system, floating bed agriculture etc.) in flood prone and salinity/tidal surge areas

• Documentation, motivation, training & dissemination of new adoptive technologies by the farmers

• Development of linkage with GO/NGOs and private sectors

• Short duration Boro rice (limited scale)

• Raised pit system

• Adjustment of cropping pattern

8.2 Fisheries

Raising pond embankment

Pond fencing by net

Fish in pond harvested before drought and in commercial farming water is supplied

Awareness and precaution

Enhancement of fish production through rehabilitation of fish production and establishment of fish sanctuary increased aquaculture production

Aquatic vegetation shelter in ponds

• Agitation of surface water

• Advance fishes’ selling

• Re-digging deeply

• Preparing water reservoir

• Digging canals and re-digging

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• Binding boats and nets with trees

• Changing species

• Introduction of salinity tolerant species

8.3 Forestry

Plantation in highlands

Dyke plantation

Introduction of drought resistant species

Planting deep rooted species in cyclone prone areas

Development of small scale coastal embankment

Afforestation along the coastal belt

Germination programs

A learning that temperature scenarios for future need to be considered for choice of species to secure the investments in plantation sector

8.4 Livestock

Emergency response & post flood rehabilitation program.

Transfer of small ruminant and poultry from flood and cyclone affected areas to high land

Shed for poultry/shed management during drought

Emergency recovery, restoration & response with long term restoration

Cold water spraying on the shed during high temperature

Use of preventive medicine for disease prevention and curative measures

Sometimes people sell their livestock to avoid sufferings from natural hazards

Advance food preservation

Preparing raised land

Salinity tolerant grass

8.5 Water and Sanitation

• Construction of cyclone shelter, coastal Embankment, and coastal Polder

• Development of drainage System

• Riverbank protection

• Construction of submergible embankment

• River Dragging

Change of land use and land use pattern

Innovative agricultural practices (floating vegetable garden, seedbed).

Deep tube-well water supply for irrigation and rainwater harvesting for supplementary irrigation

Abandonment and shifting to higher lands

Saltwater shrimp and fish culture

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8.6 Industry and Infrastructure

There have been repair and rehabilitation of existing infrastructures such as rural houses and internal roads/bridges during post disaster period.

There has been construction of embankments at the individual level by hotels so as to protect their establishments from intrusion of saline water in coastal areas (Hotel Sea Crown spent Tk. 25 lacs but this can not be long lasting).

Restoration of the connectivity/accessibility to utility supplies such as gas, water and electricity by reconstruction of the infrastructures after a disaster.

Small and medium industries are kept closed for a few days due to massive floods or salt water intrusion.

Parts of the Tourism industry such as a huge portion of the Marine Drive were shifted due to coastal erosion.

8.7 Health

Indigenous Knowledge, Alum to prevent diseases under changing situation

Adjust cooking, Consumption Pattern through remaining half-fed or sometimes unfed

Provide special health services through special medical team,

Hygiene promotion

Use of water purification tablet for providing safe water and sanitation facilities

Government emergency preparedness program

Special diseases control program by the government

Maternal and child base program

Promote use of rainwater, tube well water and pond water

Nutrition program

Health ARA program

8.8 Education

• During summer and rapid onset disaster, educational institutions declare vacation

• There is also provision of flexible school calendar

• In some areas of the country where flood and water logging are major problems, people use boat to go to educational institutions

• Shelter home cum school building built

• House to be well-built and flood tolerant, so that people do not get displaced during flood

83



Probable FutureCoping Strategies


85

9. Strategies and actions suggested here to deal with adverse impacts of present and future climate change and related disasters are based on suggestions derived from different consultation workshops and key experts’ interviews. Key principles considered in formulating strategies and actions were a) reduction of exposure of income stream and production systems, b) reduction of sensitivity of the exposed systems, and c) increase adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities. Institutional and capacity building aspects to support implementation of actions have also been considered. It was found that there is similarity of suggestions mentioned here and in the national climate change strategy and action plan.

9.1 Reduction of Exposure

“Exposure” is defined as the contact between an agent and a target. Basically it is the state of being exposed or laid open or bare; openness to danger; accessibility to anything that may affect adversely. Different systems are exposed to different climate related extreme events in different ways and magnitude. Hence, the reduction of exposure means the strategies or measures to be undertaken to reduce the exposures of the systems which are the driving force of economic growth from climate related shocks. It is to be noted that most of the measures are physical types of intervention in nature. The following table shows the measures to reduce the exposure of different systems.

Table 9.1 Provide list of adaptation measures to reduce exposure

Exposed Systems

Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Actions for Implementation

Flood and Flash flood

Drought

Cyclone and Storm surge

Agriculture

Sea level rise


Fisheries

Construction of embankment incorporating future climate change and adequate sluice gates

Excavationand re-excavation of canals, ponds and ditches, construction ofsluice gateson theopening mouths of thecanalsRainwater harvesting technology should be strengthened for all types of dry land crops during drier months

Development of concept proposal, approach and pursue with local government and Water Development Board

Development of concept proposal, approach and pursue with local government and Water Development Board

Deep-rooted fruit trees andfruit crops should be planted in cyclone prone areas

Local government, non-government organizations and community can develop contingency plan for lifting stagnant water

Coastal embankment should beconstructed highenough toprotect saltwater intrusion

Increase water holding capacity of river by dredging/de-siltation

Construction of flood free pond embankment and net fencing, rehabilitation

86


Exposed Systems


Drought

Cyclone and storm surge

Sea level rise

Salinity Intrusion

Flood andFlash flood

Drought

Sea level rise

Forestry

Salinity Intrusion

Storage of fry/fingerlings in flood free govt./private hatcheries for post flood stocking Re-excavation of water bodies regularly Enhance open water fish production through rehabilitation of fish habitats and establishment of fish sanctuary

Construction of water reservoir for water supply to aqua culture and in river system Storage of rain water and river water by damps

Timely warning, awareness creation and precaution Cyclone shelter and boat shelter for fishermen, multi-storied dwelling houses

Intensified coastal aquaculturewith appropriate technology and infrastructure

Water drainage needs to be improved toreduce flood damage to trees and plants

Germination and planting technologies intervention for all hazards individually

Technology for holding the rain water

Embankment for protection ofsaline water

Cheaper treatment plants for purifying the saline water


87

Exposed Systems



Livestock

Drought

Erratic Rainfall

Disease prevention and curativemeasures


Drought

Water andSanitation

Salinity Intrusion

Establishment of water treatment plant



Harve sting of rain water

Climate change impact assessment is very essential at the initial stage of planning and implementation of any infrastructural or industrial development

Establish future infrastructures through change in existing guidelines and designs with regular upgrading

Need flood shelters and more cyclone shelters at right locations that shouldbe multi-purpose Need more disaster- resistant infrastructure

Intensify flood protection measures and construction of multi-storied buildings with proper sanitation system

Improvement and expansion of drainage system in both urban and rural areas

Development of irrigation system for fodder production, feeds and fodder preservation for lean period

Construction of livestock shelter Establishment of flood centers,ensure animal food supply, preventive measures during flood

Local government, non-government organizations, and community can develop plan to establish flood-free shelters for livestock

88


9.2 Reduction of Sensitivity

Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise). Measures related to reduction of sensitivity are research and innovation, changes in practices, and physical interventions. The following table shows the means of reduction of sensitivity of the exposed systems.

Exposed Systems

Exposed to Measures to Reduce Exposure Actions for Imp lementation


Salinity Intrusion

Storm, Cyclone and Nor’wester

Flood Raise plinth height above flood level

Homestead

Flood

Table 9.2 Provide list of adaptation options to reduce sensitivity of the system

ExposedSystems

Exposed to Means of Reduction Actions for Implementation

Flood andFlash flood

Agriculture

The rural housing infrastructure should be stronger and more with standing

All kinds of necessary supplies suchas the utilities of electricity, gas and water should be constructed at safe locations

Relocate industries located in the coastal areas since they require fresh water for internal processing

Plantation of water and storm resistant trees at homestead and road side

Construction of multipurpose flood shelters insuitable places. Specific suggestion is to build primary schools at Senbari and Baidyabari.

Development of concept proposal, approach and pursue with local government and ministry of education

Community awareness and financial support topoor andvulnerable community

Develop program for implementation of social and community forestry program by local NGOs and local government

Flood tolerant crop varietiesto be introduced (BRRI-42, 43 & BINA shail)

Introduction of early/short duration variety (BRRI-33, & BINA-7)

Extension program through engagement of DAE, BARI, local government, NGOs and community to promote improved variety of crops

89


Drought

Cyclone and Storm surge

Exposed Systems


Sea level Introduce modern technology for cultivating new variety of drought

Organize vulnerable farmer community to introduce new

Organize vulnerable farmer community tointroduce short duration and deep water cropvarieties

Developconcept proposal andengage local government, NGOs and community toimplement this action

Research on changes inclimaticsystemof crop seasons involving research organizations from GOs and NGOs

BARI, BINA, BRRI and Research NGOs

GoB and NGOs

BARI in associationwithNGOs

Introduce short duration crop varieties and deepwater varieties

Construction of water reservoir and provide irrigation system

Introduce drought tolerant crop varieties in drought prone areas using residual moisture

Extension program of BR 33, a short duration variety (118 days) is known as drought escaping in drought prone areas

All BRRI dhan should be grown in medium high land

Cropping pattern needs tobe changed

Choice of crop variety and cropping pattern

Screening of existing varieties in vulnerable situation considering climate change impacts (for all hazards)

Submergence variety needs to bedeveloped for future adaptation incrop agriculture of flood prone areas

Study on assessment of crop lossshould be undertaken (crop lossdue to all types ofclimatic eventsindividually)

Crop adjustment and revised time of sowing/planting should be studied through on-farm trials/demonstration

90


ExposedSystems


rise and salttolerant crops

Salinity Intrusion

Cold Wave

Fisheries

Drought

Sea level rise

Salinity Intrusion

Temperature Variation

Flood and flash flood

Drought

Forestry

Salinity

Flood andFlash

BRRI-47 can to lerate 6-10 ds/m, at a young stage it can tolerate 14 ds/m.Extension program of this variety needs to be taken in coastal areas.

Organize vulnerable farmer community to introduce new technology by NGOs and local government

technology by NGOs and local government

Cold tolerant crop varieties need tobe invented/developed and distributed among farmers in northern districts

Development and supply of shortcycle fish species for aquaculture

Adjust aquaculture period withculture cycle from October-June

Introduce flood plain aquaculture

Aquaculture and fishing technology change and modification (for all hazards)

Increase aquaculture practiceincluding freshwater shrimpcultivation

Introduce drought resistant fish spp. for aquaculture Introduce sea cage culture and sea ranching

Introduce brackish water finfish aquaculture

Saline resistant spp. needs to be introduced in aquaculture

Enclosure around selected large fresh waterhabitats

Introduce temperature tolerant species

More salt tolerant trees with high yielding variety need to be

Watertolerant forest tree sand plants species needed in flood prone areas

Good irrigation system to be developed for trees and plants Drought resistant varieties of tree sand plants should be introduced and planted

91


ExposedSystems


developed


Drought

Sea level rise

Salinity Intrusion

Temperature Variation

Livestock

Heat wave





Existing Infrastructure

Flood

Intrusion

Aware and involve policy personnel and mass population

Development offeeding system toreduce production ofmethane and carbon dioxide

Preservation of feeds and fodder,introduction of drought tolerant fodder speciesProtect fodder production area by embankment

Introduction of salt tolerant fodder species

Temperature tolerance livestock breeds should be under taken

Development of special type of housing for animal and poultry, feeds and fodder preservation,introduction of heat tolerant fodder species

Early warning dissemination needs to be improved (for all hazards)

Awareness raising and capacity building toward adverse impacts of climate change on industry and infrastructure (for all hazards)

Assessmentof climate change impacts on industries and infrastructure

Develop a baseline data based on impacts of CC and industry and infrastructure

Develop climate resilient cluster compact villages – a growth center with all one-stop services such asschool, community centre,shopping complex, industrial activity- a climate proof settlement

Increase robustness of existing roads and embankments through increasing their heighs. Aspecific suggestion is to raise plinth height of Goalgram to Kaligram bound road.

Development of concept proposal, approach and pursue with local government.

92


ExposedSystems


Housing

Aquaculture Flood

Exposed Systems


Agriculture Floodand Flash flood

Table 9.3 Provide types of intervention to enhance adaptive capacity of the community

Storm and Flood

Making storm resistant houses and increase plinth height of houses (flood free houses)

Organize vulnerable household sand provide resources to build storm resistant and flood free houses

Mobilize fishermen community and aquaculture groups to build a resilience system

Raising and strengthening of embankments ofthe ponds

• Establish cottage industries at local level: Tailoring, Bamboo and cane, Jute goods, earth goods, Jewelleries industries

• Promote alternative livelihood options (poultry and cattle rearing, aquaculture, plant nursery, etc.)

• Encourage farmers to adopt innovative practices viz. floating bed agriculture and sorjan system in flood prone areas

• Increase aquaculture practice including freshwater shrimp cultivation

• Establish information centre at local level on different technologies for adaptation to deal with flood and water logging

• Community based public property management (water, aquatic resources etc.)

• Capacity building and awareness raising programs for farmers should be undertaken

Development of programs by local NGOs for diversification of livelihood options, depending on household assets and capabilities

Training for farmersdemonstrations, developcommunication materialsinvolving NGOs

9.3 Improvement of Adaptive Capacity of Community

Improvement of adaptive capacity of the community is required to primarily build resilience of the community through implementation of different types of soft measures including training, education and alternative means of livelihood system.


93

Exposed Systems Exposed to Means of Reduction

Drought


Sea level rise

Salinity Intrusion

Erratic Rainfall

Heat wave

Cold Wave • Introduce cold tolerant species

Fisheries Drought

Communities Heat wave • Tidal River Management (TRM)

Livestock Cold Wave

• Early vegetables can be grown profitably to improve the livelihood of farming community

• Encourage farmers to adopt innovative practices viz. zero tillage, priming, dry farming, mulching, relay cropping etc. in drought prone area

• Tides level started to recede from 15 September. This time high yielding varieties should grow in coastal areas

• Farmers should be encouraged to adopt some promising traditional/innovative practices viz. zero tillage, sorjan system, floating bed agriculture, rainwater harvest, cultivation of aquatic crops/medicinal plants etc. to improve livelihoods of the vulnerable community

• Salt tolerant species like chilli, groundnut, methi, water melon, cucumber etc. should be cultivated in saline prone areas

• Fish disease control and curative measures in ponds by using medicine/insecticides, keep the surrounding environment by the pond clean

• Create agitation in water or use aeration

• Ensure demand based water supply for aquaculture

• Establish veterinary centre at village level for animal health during flood and water logging period Management technology should be developed

Development of program by local NGOs and local engagement of local government, particularly veterinary doctor for providing services

Development of program by NGOs in association with Water Development Board for community based implementation

Actions for Implementation

94


ExposedSystems Exposed to Means of Reduction

Health Fogginess

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

Flood, water logging

implementation

• Ensure pure/safe drinking water Establish health centre and need skilled doctors Prevention of water borne diseases Installation of community based sanitary latrines at flood free places

• Need based effective training for vulnerable community; Improve early warning system and information flow;

• Training and awareness raising on disaster risk reduction;

• Increase flood preparedness activities (food storage, fuel, savings, etc.) Introduction of removable cooking stoves Building strong flood shelter

Develop and implement institutional capacity building of Local NGOs and communities. through conducting providing different trainings throughout project design and implementation

Development of program by local NGOs for vulnerable communities to provide healthservices as suggested



Institutions Issue Means Actions for

Implementation

GeneralEconomicDivision

AnalyticalandHuman

Prepare new project

Table 9.4 Provides types of intervention to enhance adaptive capacity of the community

9.4 Institutional Capacity Building

Institutional capacity building is necessary to facilitate and create enabling condition to implement different types of adaptation options mentioned above. The following table provides different types of actions at institutional and community levels.

• Develop longitudinal disaggregated poverty database along with different streams of income of a household and their assets.

• Carryout training to enhance institutional and human capacity to analyze poverty in the context of climate change.

97


Changes Needed inPlanning Process

99


10. In order to address adverse impacts of climate change and reduction of greenhouse gas emission in the context of poverty and national economic growth, a number of changes have been suggested by different stakeholders including changes in planning process while designing programs and projects by different ministries and departments in the climate sensitive geographical region. These include short, medium and long term perspective of climate change, create enabling conditions to incorporate climate change perspectives, ensure participation of all relevant stakeholders particularly potential vulnerable communities to climate change.

10.1 Incorporation of Climate Change

It is revealed from a number of national development policy, sectoral policies, strategies and action plan that climate change has received significant attention. These national documents have also incorporated several actions related to mainstreaming and capacity building for adaptation to climate change and reduction of greenhouse gas emission. However, a number of sectoral policies have not incorporated climate change. Considering sense of urgency and level of present and future impacts on poverty and economic growth, issues of climate change need to be incorporated immediately. Planning Commission as central policy making institution should play a central role in initiating policy review toward incorporation of climate change issues in the policy, programme and project development. It should also maintaining synergy among policies, strategies, programme and actions by different actors. It may also initiate a process for regular review and update of policies, strategies and action plans in the context of climate change. Learning from the implementation of different actions and measures by different stakeholders may create a basis for review and fine tuning of actions.

Considering the time dimension of climate change, designing of any development programs/projects should incorporate short-term, medium-term and long-term climate change perspectives including extreme events and risk management. It is also important that poverty and economic growth are connected with multiple sectors and need a multi-sectoral approach. Considering contribution of agriculture as key rural livelihoods, contribution to economic and sensitivity of the sector to climate change, priority should be given to incorporate adverse impacts arising from climate change and extreme events while designing development programs and projects in the agriculture sector.

10.2 Creating Enabling Condition

Inter linkage among adverse impacts of climate change, poverty and economic growth is clear. However, there is a lack of quantitative analysis and assessment based on disagreed and longitudinal database. Quantitative analysis and assessment of impacts of climate change on economic growth and poverty by regions and livelihoods groups would facilitate formulation of programme and projects for different sectors. It will also give clear picture of adaptation need for different sectors and livelihood groups as well as mitigation potential. In order to carryout quantitative analysis and assessment of impacts of climate change on poverty and economic growth by sectors and regions, a disaggregated and longitudinal database needs to be developed. The database needs to include extent and severity of present and future impacts on different sectors and livelihood groups. It will also facilitate medium and long term planning to incorporate climate change into development process.

Creation of provision and giving priority to the programs and projects those will address poverty, economic growth and climate change issue together. Types of projects may include research and climate resilient development giving emphasis on key sectors supporting livelihoods and economic growth; development of a comprehensive and dynamic land use plan and land zoning considering climate change issues including assessment of impacts; technology development and deployment for agriculture sector including scale up of local level innovative practices. This may also give priority to the climate resilient infrastructure development including building materials. Development of tools to assess climate change impacts and technology needs for all development program and projects to address climate change is necessary to enhance enabling capacity of practitioner.

10.3 Ensure Participation of Vulnerable Communities and Local Need

Impacts of climate change are disproportionate and vary by geographical region and by sectors. Capacity to

100


address adverse impacts of climate change also varies by livelihood groups and their socio-economic condition. In order to capture context specificity of adaption to climate change and technology needs for different sectors and livelihood groups, participation of climate vulnerable communities in designing and implementation and program and project is most important. Local level participation will also identify future needs for research and development to meet local level needs.

10.4 Role of General Economic Division

Being a focal point for developing medium and long term plans for Bangladesh and facilitating key decision making process of the Government of Bangladesh, GED needs to play an important role to address climate change impacts and vulnerability in their planning process. Planning Commission is formulating a Vision Paper for Bangladesh and rightly placed to incorporate climate change in this paper. This paper should include latest climate change assessment and adaptation needs to promote sustainable development of Bangladesh.

In addition, to address the climate change issues in policy and decision making activities of the General Economic Division of the Planning Commission, it has to improve its capability as well as facilitate other relevant ministries and departments. The following are major areas for immediate attention and action.

Knowledge and Research

Encourage and motivate relevant sectoral ministries and department to enhance existing research and initiate new research linking climate change, poverty and economic growth;

Develop disaggregated database on climate change, poverty and economic growth to facilitate quantitative analysis and assessment on inter-linkage among climate change impacts, poverty and economic growth and designing different interventions to address climate change;

Facilitate development of a comprehensive landuse and land zoning plan for proper utilization of land resources to support poverty reduction and economic growth in a sustainable manner. The land zoning also should incorporate climate change as it will bring changes characteristics of physical environment; and

Support facilities for information gathering through scientific research, and made provision to support activities addressing poverty, economic growth and climate change together.

Capacity Building

General Economic Division of the Planning Commission should setup a Climate Change Unit to enhance GED’s knowledge base. It should also build awareness and capacity of staff of planning cell of every ministry and department.

The proposed climate change unit must coordinate with all relevant government agencies at all levels, including both vertical and horizontal while designing and implementing project;

GED should made provision for financial support to enhance technical capacity of other ministries and departments to incorporate climate change in development and implementation of project.

Policy Issues

Initiating policy review toward incorporation of climate change issues in the policy, programme and project development;

General Economic Division (GED) will give priority to the programme and project addressing poverty, economic growth and climate change together; GED should facilitate/expedite extension of available research knowledge and good practices/technologies addressing climate change, poverty and economic growth together;

GED should emphasize agriculture friendly planning process by incorporating CC impacts.


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10.5 Immediate Projects for Implementation

10.5.1 Enhance understanding and knowledge on climate change and development with special focus on poverty and economic growth.

Objective

The primary objectives of the project are to enhance understanding and knowledge on climate change and development with special focus on poverty and economic growth, and identification of possible interventions to reduce adverse impacts of climate change and reduction of greenhouse gas emission.

Justification

Adverse impacts of climate change on poverty and economic growth is real now. About 40% people of the country are living below poverty line and a large proportion of human population of the country is at risk to climate change and relevant extremes and shocks. The government of Bangladesh has taken initiatives to address poverty through formulation and implementation of “National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction” for the period of 2009-2011. It has recognized need to address climate change which needs enhance understanding to the extent and severity of the problem as well as possible interventions at project level. As a part of medium and long term planning which is one of the key roles of the General Economic Division of the Planning Commission enhanced understanding and linkage along with possible measures are key.

The Department of Environment (DoE) under the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) mainly deals with climate change issues at national and international levels along with its other mandates. A climate change cell has established under Comprehensive Disaster Management Programmes (CDMP) to meet gaps in research on climate change issues and facilitate mainstreaming climate change in national and sectoral development. Moreover, many government and non-government organizations are doing research on climate change issues and impacts at national, regional and levels. The Planning Commission (PC) under the Ministry of Planning is the key institution for overall development including poverty reduction of the country and therefore should take key role in mainstreaming climate change into development process. In order to play the key role in mainstreaming climate change in national and sectoral development, enhance understanding and knowledge on climate change and development including economic growth and poverty is necessary for General Economic Division.

Activities

a) Establish a climate change cell in the General Economic Division of the Planning Commission with adequate trained professional;

b) Develop a framework for continued collection and compilation of climate change scenarios, impacts assessments and possible measures both in adaptation and mitigation;

c) Synthesis of climate change impacts, vulnerabilities and possible adaptation measures for different sectors and by geographical regional and by livelihoods groups;

d) Develop a framework, methodology and tools for integrating climate change into Development Project Proposals (DPPs) and conduct regular training for sectoral agencies;

e) Coordinate all research related to climate change and development

Timeline: Short-term

Responsibility: General Economic Division of Planning Commission, Ministry of Planning

10.5.2 Quantitative analysis and assessment of climate change impacts on economic growth and poverty by regions and livelihood groups

Objective

The primary objective of the project is to analyse and assess quantitative impacts of climate change on economic growth and poverty by regions and livelihoods groups through development of a disaggregated database.

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Justification

Adverse impacts of climate change are already visible and different sectors and livelihood groups are being

impacted differently. Agriculture sector especially crop agriculture is highly being affected by extreme weather events and shocks and level of impacts will be more in future due to changes characteristics of climate. In addition, water resources, one of the key inputs to agriculture, will be impacted due to climate change. Health services, education, industries especially small and medium industries, urban and rural infrastructure will also be affected by adverse impacts of climate change and climate change related extreme events. Ultimately different livelihood groups depending on these sectors will be impacted and overall economic growth of the country will also face additional stress. It is also recognized that the poorest of the poor will be affected hardest. However, there is lack of analysis based on disaggregated database on what extent and how impacts of climate change on different sectors are affecting and will affect different livelihood groups. Several stakeholders suggested that quantification of impacts of climate change on economic growth and poverty is important to facilitate medium and long term planning to incorporate climate change into development process.

Activities

a) Undertake a process to design framework, methodology and tools to collect disaggregated data on a continuous basis and stored in a retrieval and relational database system;

b) Undertake a process to develop an analytical framework to carryout periodical analysis of the situation to facilitate decision making process;

c) Develop a process to ensure continued collection of disaggregated data; and

d) Develop data base maintenance and sharing system among different relevant government and non-government research organizations.


Responsibility: Ministry of Planning and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

10.5.3 Capacity Enhancement of Planning Cadre on Climate Change Issues

Objective

The primary objective of the capacity building of the planning cadre on climate change issues is integrating climate change in designing program and project. It will promote implementation of adaptation activities and building resilience of the vulnerable community to cope with climate change and reduce risk of declining economic growth.

Justification

Adverse impacts of climate change on different sectors supporting livelihoods and economic growth are unavoidable. Existing process for formulation of a program and project does not address climate change issues and impacts. Therefore, it is important to enhance capacity of the planning cadre to incorporate climate change as programme or project usually born in the planning cell of a ministry or a department.

Activities

a) Development of capacity building training module on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation;

b) Develop a framework including methodologies and tools to facilitate incorporation of climate change in designing sector specific program and project; and

c) Carryout training for planning cadre of key relevant ministries and departments.


Responsibility: Ministry of Planning


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Conclusion

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11. Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change is well recognized due to its higher level of exposure to both the gradual change phenomenon and extreme events, and due to lack of institutional and financial capacity to deal with climate change related problems as well. Changes in the climatic system and its associated adverse impacts are already visible. Changes in the duration of seasons, i.e. lengthening of the summer season and shortening of the winter season, shifting of mango flowering season; increase in the frequency of hazards; changes in the rainfall pattern etc. are major indicators of climate change in Bangladesh.

The IPCC estimates that by 2050 rice production in Bangladesh could decline by 8% and wheat production by 32% (against a base year of 1990). If sea level rise is higher than currently expected and coastal polders are not strengthened and/or new ones built, six to eight million people could be displaced by 2050 and would have to be resettled. Climate change is likely to increase the incidence of water-borne and air-borne diseases. Bacteria, parasites and disease vectors breed faster in warmer and wetter conditions and where there is poor drainage and sanitation.

The relationship between climate change adverse impacts and poverty is multi-dimensional and complex. For better understanding the complex relationship needs longitudinal disaggregated poverty database along with different streams of income of a household and their assets. Strengthening of institutional and human capacity to analyse poverty in the context of climate change is also needed. The relationship between adverse impacts of climate change with GDP growth is complex as well.

It has been revealed that during and immediately after a disaster, the government, development partners, non-government organizations and the civil society place significant extra efforts to cope with the situation and, therefore, by the next growing season there is additional output from the impacted sectors. The direct annual cost to the national economy of natural disasters over the last 10 years (damage and loss in production) was estimated to be between 0.5% and 1% of GDP. However, it is to be noted that national expenditure increases to address a disaster or the cost is diverted from other sectoral activities. In future, increase in frequency and intensity of natural disasters will put extra pressure on the national economy and it is likely that other sectors may suffer due to diverting of resources from one sector to another sector.

Different sectors are coping with climate change related adverse impacts but most of them are reactive adaptation measures. However, many of the measures have potential to work as future adaptation options but we need evaluation of their robustness under future changed conditions. Effective knowledge management and undertaking of new research will enhance capacity of different sectoral agencies to undertake adaptation to climate change in an efficient manner.

The Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh is the focal point for climate change at national and international level. The Government of Bangladesh has formulated the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008 as a living document to address climate change issues. In 2005, the Government also formulated the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) where the immediate and urgent needs of adaptation have been identified.

The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2008 is built on six pillars of which five are related to impact management and one is related to mitigation through low carbon development. These pillars are a) Food security, social protection and health, b) Comprehensive Disaster Management, c) Infrastructure, d) Research and knowledge management, e) Mitigation and low carbon development and f ) Capacity building and institutional strengthening. It has suggested that the Climate Change Action Plan will be implemented under the overall guidance of the National Environment Committee. It will be coordinated by the concerned Ministry of Environment and Forests. Programs funded under the Plan will be implemented by Ministries or their agencies, with the involvement, as appropriate, of civil society and the private sector.

The strategy document revealed that the Bangladesh Government is committed to integrate and mainstream climate change into all aspects of national, sectoral and spatial development in the country. This will require: (a) incorporating climate change into policies, plans, programs and projects; (b) establishment and building the capacity of ministries and agencies so that they are able to do this (e.g., building on the climate change cells in

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each ministry); focusing, to start with, on those specific sectors, where climate change will be a key issue (e.g., water, agriculture, food, disaster management, health, forests, energy and power, transport and communication, women affairs and Chittagong Hill Tracts)

Two changes are required in the process by which ministries and agencies prepare and submit proposals to the Planning Commission: the Planning Commission, in consultation with the National Steering Committee on Climate Change and sectoral ministries, should introduce a set of designs and planning parameters for projects for selected target years (e.g. 2030, 2050 and 2100), which should take into account the likely climate change impacts; the pro-formas, which the Planning Commission requires for project proposals (TPP, PP etc.), designed to ensure that all elements for taking decisions for climate resilience or climate sensitivity are included and correctly reflected.

Establishing and building the capacity of climate change cells in ministries and agencies to incorporate climate change considerations in all planning design and implementation processes as a long-term measure is vital. Supporting implementation of the national strategy and action plan, particularly in the area of food security, social protection and human health; infrastructure development; knowledge management and research; and, capacity building and institutional strengthening can be key areas for the General Economic Division in the context of poverty and economic growth as a long term target.


Key Terminologies


109

12.1 Climate

Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the "average weather," or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands of years. The classical period is 3 decades, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.

12.2 Climate Change

Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which defines "climate change" as: "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods." See also climate variability.

12.3 Climate System

The climate system is the highly complex system consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the cryosphere, the land surface, and the biosphere, and the interactions between them. The climate system evolves in time under the influence of its own internal dynamics and because of external forcings such as volcanic eruptions, solar variations and human-induced forcings such as the changing composition of the atmosphere and land use.

12.4 Climate Variability

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system (internal variability), or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external variability). See also climate change.

12.5 Extreme Weather Event

An event that is rare within its statistical reference distribution at a particular place. Definitions of "rare" vary, but an extreme weather event would normally be as rare as or rarer than the 10th or 90th percentile. By definition, the characteristics of what is called "extreme weather" may vary from place to place. An "extreme climate event" is an average of a number of weather events over a certain period of time, an average which is itself extreme (e.g., rainfall over a season).

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3. Bangladesh Development Series “Bangladesh 2020” A Long Term Perspective Study, 1998.

4. Bangladesh Economic Review, 2008

5. BBS, (2007) “Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)”, Statistical year Book of Bangladesh”, 2007.

6. BBS, (2008) “Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)”, Statistical year Book of Bangladesh”, 2008.

7. Climate Change Cell, DoE (2007) “Climate Change and Bangladesh” published by DFID, UNDP and Department of Environment, Bangladesh. September 2007

8. Department of Agricultural Extension, (2007). Disaster Risk Management in Agricultural Project, Supported by Comprehensive Disaster Management Program (CDMP), UNDP.

9. Department of Agricultural Extension, (2007). Disaster Risk Management in Agricultural Project, Supported by Comprehensive Disaster Management Program (CDMP), UNDP.

10. Farashuddin, M., (2001). 'Bangladesh Development Agenda and Vision 2020: Rhetoric or Reality?', The Independent, April 29, Dhaka.

11. GoB (2005). National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), Final report; November 2005; Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh (GoB) Dhaka.

12. GoB (2008); “Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh Damage, Loss and Needs Assessment for Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction”, A Report Prepared by the Government of Bangladesh Assisted by the International Development Community with Financial Support from the European Commission.

13. GoB & FAO, (2004) The Food Security Atlas of Bangladesh: Towards a Poverty and Hunger Free Bangladesh, Planning Division, Government of Bangladesh and World Food Programme, United Nations, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

14. Habibullah M., et.al. (1998) Assessment of Food grain Production Loss Due to Climate Induced Soil Salinity: A Case Study, in Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change for Bangladesh, S. Huq, Z. Karim, M. Asaduzzaman and F. Mahtab (Eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1998. pp 51-66.

15. Hasan, Faruque, (2008); Bangladesh drowning: A reality or a myth? Published in The Daily Star on 01 November 2008.

16. Human Development Report 2007/2008: Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World.

17. ICIMOD & UNEP (2007); Impact of Climate Change on Himalayan Glaciers and Glacial Lakes: Case Studies on GLOF and Associated Hazards in Nepal and Bhutan, ICIMOD & UNEP, June 2007.

18. Karim et. al (1999) Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change for Bangladesh, Kluwer Academic publishers, Dordrecht

19. Karim, Z. (1996) Agricultural Vulnerability and Poverty Alleviation in Bangladesh. In Climate Change and World Food Security, T.E. Downing (Ed.), NATO ASI Series, 137. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Hiedelberg, 1996. pp. 307-346.

References


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20. MoEF (2005). National Adaptation program of Action (NAPA), Final report; November 2005; Ministry of Environment and Forest, Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh (GoB) Dhaka, 48p.

21. Rahman, A. & Alam, M. (2003). “Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in least Developed Countries (LDCs), Working paper II, Bangladesh Country case Study, IIED, London, UK.

22. Rashid, (1991) “Geography of Bangladesh”, The University Press Limited, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

23. SMRC, (2003). The Vulnerability Assessment of the SAARC Coastal Region due to Sea LevelRise: Bangladesh Case, SMRC-No.3, SMRC Publication, Dhaka, Bangladesh

24. SMRC, (1998) “The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on the Coastal Region of SAARC Countries and Their Influence in the Region”, SMRC-No.1, SMRC Publication, Dhaka, Bangladesh

25. World Bank (1997). “World Development Report, 1997”. The State in a Changing World, Oxford University Press, Inc., 200 Madison Avenue, new York, N.Y. 10016, USA.

26. http://www.localfooddirectory.ca/foodshed/?q=node/490 accessed on 06 November 2008.

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List of Key Experts of different sectors that have been interviewed

Sl No.

Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information

1 Dr. Abu Wali Raghib Hassan Sub-component Manager (National Project Director) Livelihood Adaptation to ClimateChange (LACC-II) Project

2 Dr. A.K.M.Farhad Project Director GUTI UREA PROGRAM Field Service Wing

3

4

5

6

7

Cro

p A

gri

cult

ure

Dr. Md. Abdus Salam Chief Scientific Officer and Head Agronomy DivisionBangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture (BINA)

Prof. Dr. ShahMohammad Ullah Chairman

Professor Dr. M. Ali Akbar Department of Animal Husbandry

Dr. M. Shahabuddin Khan Chief Scientific Officer & Head

Dr. M A Salam Director (Research)

Room No. 403, 3rd floor, 1st Building, Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE) Khamarbari, Farmgate, Dhaka-1215 Cell: 01552312600, Email: [email protected]

Room No. 401, 3rd floor, 2nd Building Department of Agriculture Extension (DAE)Khamarbari, Farmgate, Dhaka-1215

P.O. Box-4, Mymensingh-2200 Tel: +88-091-54401-2, Ext. 307 (Off) +88-091-52960 Cell: 01711938290 Fax: +88-091-54091 Email: [email protected]

Department of Soil, Water and Environment University of Dhaka, Dhaka. Tel: 9661920-59, Ext. 6132 (Off), 9664988(Res) Cell: 01190337632 Fax: (880-2) 8615583 Email: [email protected]

Bangladesh Agricultural University,Mymensingh-2200 Tel: 091-52030 (Direct). 55695-7/2600 (Office) 091-54055 (Res.) Fax: 091-55810 Cell: 01715-004752 Email: [email protected]

SoilScience DivisionBARI, Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701 Tel: 880-2-9256403 (Off) 880-2-8060903, 8034740 (Res) Email: [email protected], [email protected]

Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur 1701, Dhaka. Tel: 9252429 (Off) Mobile: 01711595577Fax: 88-02-9261110 Email: [email protected]

Annex A

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Sl No. Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information

8 Prof.Dr. M. A.Sattar Department of Environmental Science

Bangladesh Agricultural University,Mymensingh -2202Tel: (091)55695-7/2608 (Off), (091)53927 (Res.)Mobile: 01711855366 Fax: +88-091-55810 Email: [email protected]

9 Dr. Rafiqul Islam Professor

10 Dr. Jahiruddin Professor

11 Dr. Badirul Islam Chief Scientific Officer (OFRD)

12 Dr. M. Sirajul Islam Chief Scientific Officer (Physiology)

13 Dr. M. K. Basher Chief Scientific Officer (Breeding)

14 Mr. Jalal uddin Md. Shoel Chief Scientific Officer (CSO)

15 Mr. Kabel Hossain Dewan Chief Scientific Officer (CSO)

16 Shaikh Siraj Director and Founding Member

Cro

p A

gri

cult

ure

Channel I, Dhaka

Department of Soil ScienceBangladesh Agricultural UniversityMymensingh-2202Tel: 091-55695-7 Ext. 2420 (Off)Fax: 091-55810Email: [email protected]

Department of Soil ScienceBangladesh Agricultural UniversityMymensingh-2202 Tel: 091-55695-7Ext. 2420 (Off) Fax: 091-55810Email: [email protected]

BangladeshAgriculture Research Institute(BARI), Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701, Dhaka.Cell: 01199100909Email: [email protected]

BangladeshRice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur -1701,Dhaka.Tel: 9257517 (off)Email: [email protected]

BangladeshRice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur -1701,Dhaka.Cell: 01711283982Email: [email protected]

Soil Research Development Institute (SRDI),Khamarbari, Farmgate, Dhaka-1215Cell: 01716048256Fax: 9110844

Soil Research Development Institute (SRDI),Khamarbari, Farmgate, Dhaka-1215Tel: 9127674Cell: 01918610026Fax: 9110844

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SlNo. Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information

17 Dr. Shahjahan Ali KhandakerDeputy Chief

18 Mr. Joarder Shibendra NathDeputy Chief

19 Dr. M.A. MazidDirector General

20 Dr. M.A. WahabProfessorLimnology &Aquaculture

21 Dr. Md. Giasuddin KhanSenior Fisheries Scientist

22 Dr. Md. Ebadul HaquePrincipal Scientific Officer(Training)

Fish

erie

s an

d L

ives

tock

23 Mr. AKM ShamsuddinChief Conservator of Forest (CCF)

24 Mr. Abul kalamDeputy Conservator of Forests

Fore

st

25 Mr. Md. Nurul IslamChief Engineer

Ministry of Fisheries & Livestock (MOFL) Bangladesh Secretariat, DhakaTel: 7169564 Cell: 01712200932

Department of Fisheries (DOF)Matshaya Bhaban,Ramna, DhakaTel:- 9567216

BangladeshFisheries Research InstituteMymensinghCell: 01711-544919

Department of Fisheries Management Faculty of FisheriesBangladesh Agriculture University (BAU) MymensinghCell : 01715099156

World Fish CenterHouse # 22B, Road # 7, Block- F,Banani, Dhaka.Tel.: 8813250,8814624Cell: 01711392292E-mail: [email protected]

Bangladesh Livestock Research Institute(BLRI)Savar, DhakaTel: 7791685 (off.)Cell: 01712142110

Ban Bhaban, Agargaon,Sher-e-BanglaNagar, Dhaka-1207Tel:- 8118671

Planning WingBan Bhaban, Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka-1207

Department of Local Government and Engineering, LGED Bhaban (Level 5), Agargaon,Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka-1207.Tel: 8114804,8116817Fax: 8113144,8116390Cell: 01711566370E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]

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SlNo. Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information

26 Mr. Md ReazuddinDirector (Technical - 1)

27 Mr. Md. Mujibur RahmanProfessor

28 Mr. M. Aminul IslamAssistant Country Director (ACD)

29 Mr. Abu Mostofa Kamal UddinProgramme Manager (ClimateChange Cell)

30 Mr. A. K.M. Khorshed AlamJoint Chief

31 Ms. Hosne Ara BegumJoint Chief (InfrastructureDivision)

32 Ms. Saleha KhatunJoint Chief (Industry Division)

Ind

ust

ry a

nd

Infr

astr

uct

ure

Department of Environment (DoE)Paribesh Bhaban (2ndfloor)E-16, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207Tel.: 9115120 (Off.)Fax: 9118682 Cell: 01678120996E-mail: [email protected]

Dept. of Civil Engineering3rd Floor, Civil Engineering BuildingBUET, Dhaka-1000.Fax: 9663695 Cell: 01713002904

Environment & Sustainable, Development,UNDP Bangladesh18thFloor, IDB Bhaban, Agargaon,Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.G.P.O Box 224,Dhaka-1000.Tel: 8118600, Ext.-2464Fax: 8113196Cell: 01818260741

Department of Environment (DoE)Paribesh Bhaban (4th Floor)Room # 514, E-16, AgargaonSher-e-Bangla Nagar,Dhaka-1207.Email: [email protected]

GED, Planning CommissionRoom-24, Block-14Planning Commission Agargaon,Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.Cell: 01199104412E-mail: [email protected]

Room-18, Block-4Planning CommissionAgargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka.Tel: 8114706Fax: 9127230

Room- 18, Block-3Planning CommissionAgargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar,Dhaka.Tel: 8114709E-mail: [email protected]

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Sl.No. Name and Designation Sector Detail Contact Information

33 Mr. Abdul QuyumAdditional Chief Engineer

34 Mr. Giasuddin Ahmed ChowdhuryExecutive Director, CEGIS

35 Dr. Ainun NishatCountry Representative W

ater

and

San

itat

ion

36 Professor Sk. Akhtar AhmedHead of the Department

37 Mr.Sirajul IslamEnvironmental, Microbiologist

38 Mr. Md. Ihtishamul HuqSuperintendent EngineerGround Water Circle

Hea

lth

39 Mr. Md. Azizul HaqDirector in Charge

40 Prof. Nazrul IslamChairman

41 Prof Jihadul KarimMember

Educ

atio

n

42 Dr. Al-AminProfessor & Director

43 Dr. Saleh Uddin AhmedDirector

Aca

dem

icia

ns

Water Development Board (BWDB)Motijheel C/A, Dhaka-1000Mob : 01552-402328

House No.6, Road No. 23/CGulshan-1, DhakaTel.: 8821570-2

IUCN-BangladeshHouse 11, Road 138, Gulshan 1Dhaka 1212

Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, NIPSOMMohakhali, Dhaka Tel.: 8821236, 9898798E-Mail: [email protected]

Dept. of Environmental Microbiology ICDDR,B, Mohakhali, DhakaTel.: 8811751-60 (2407)E-mail : [email protected]

DPHE, DPHE Bhavan,14 Shaheed Captain Mansur Ali Sarani, Kakrail, Dhaka-1000Tel.: 9343358E-mail : [email protected]

CAMPE5/14, Humayun RoadMohammadpur, Dhaka-1207Tel.: 9130427, 8115769, 8155031-2E-mail : [email protected]

University Grant Commission (UGC) Sher-e-Bangal Nagar, Agargaon, Dhaka-1207Tel.: 8112629, 8124133E-mail: [email protected]

University Grant Commission (UGC)Sher-e-Bangal NagarAgargaon, Dhaka-1207Cell: 017113031335

Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences Chittagong University,Chittagong 4331, Bangladesh Phone: 0088 031 714914 (office)Cell : 0088 01819820184 (personal)E-mail: [email protected]

Bangladesh Fisheries Research Institute Bangladesh Agricultural University Campus Mymensingh, Bangladesh

94


ExposedSystems Exposed to Means of Reduction

Health Fogginess

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

Flood, water logging

implementation

• Ensure pure/safe drinking water Establish health centre and need skilled doctors Prevention of water borne diseases Installation of community based sanitary latrines at flood free places

• Need based effective training for vulnerable community; Improve early warning system and information flow;

• Training and awareness raising on disaster risk reduction;


Develop and implement institutional capacity building of Local NGOs and communities. through conducting providing different trainings throughout project design and implementation

Development of program by local NGOs for vulnerable communities to provide healthservices as suggested



Institutions Issue Means Actions for

Implementation

GeneralEconomicDivision

AnalyticalandHuman

Prepare new project

Table 9.4 Provides types of intervention to enhance adaptive capacity of the community

9.4 Institutional Capacity Building

Institutional capacity building is necessary to facilitate and create enabling condition to implement different types of adaptation options mentioned above. The following table provides different types of actions at institutional and community levels.

• Develop longitudinal disaggregated poverty database along with different streams of income of a household and their assets.

• Carryout training to enhance institutional and human capacity to analyze poverty in the context of climate change.

climate change information and knowledge management...

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