Scientific Management of Mediterranean coastal zone: an Ocean Forecasting System

for Oil Spill and Search and Rescue Operations

Jordi, A.1, M. I. Ferrer1, G. Vizoso1, A. Orfila2, G. Basterretxea1, B. Casas1, A. Álvarez1, D. Roig1, B. Garau1, M. Martínez1, V. Fernández1, A. Fornés1, M. Ruiz1, J. J. Fornós3, P. Balaguer1, C. M. Duarte1, I. Rodríguez4, E. Alvarez4, R. Onken5, J. Tintoré1

1 GOIFIS, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), www.imedea.csic.uib/goifis2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University3 Departament de Ciències de la Terra, UIB4 Área del Medio Físico, Puertos del Estado5 Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre

Outline

• Description of the system• Operational circulation sub-system

• Coastal ocean forecast• Ocean observations• Atmospheric forcing

• Oil spill coastal sub-system• Trajectories• Environmental sensitivity

• Management sub-system

• Application to Mallorca: MED05• System configuration• Results: Currents• Results: Drifting buoys

• Conclusions

Description of the system

Operational circulation sub-system

• The goal of the operational sub-system is to provide, in near-real time, reliable information and forecasts for marine environmental conditions, to support all kind of activities at sea.

• The operational circulation sub-system is based on an interdisciplinary observing system coupled with numerical predictive models of atmospheric and oceanic state variables. Data assimilation merges the observation with different model state variables.

Coastal ocean forecast

The Mediterranean Sea is a complex and variable ocean system where several temporal and spatial scales (basin, sub-basin and local) interact to form a highly variable general circulation.

Coastal ocean forecast: Basin scale

Examples of scientific results since 1995 (year of the first paper published in the subject in peer reviewed journals): large scale circulation, role of bottom topography, specific features, transport in detailed sections, etc.

Coastal ocean forecast: Sub-basin scale

Examples of scientific results since 1992: mesoscale/mean flow interactions, blocking basin scale circulation in specific sub-basins, circulation Alborán and Balearic Seas, etc.

Coastal ocean forecast: Local scale

Examples of scientific results since 1993: sub-basin-local interaction through canyons, shelf/slope exchanges, circulation in bays, residence times and water quality, etc.

Coastal ocean forecast: Forecasting toolsCapacities for near-real time data assimilation together with new tools for initialization and/or assimilation of satellite data.

• SOFT (Satellite Ocean Forecasting Tool) is based on nonlinear prediction techniques like genetic algorithms to forecast future ocean states at the specific sub-basins.

• FORMS (Feature-Oriented Regional Modeling Sampling ) is a generic and portable methodology to initialize and/or to update fields for a coastal ocean model.

Ocean observations

Atmospheric forcing

Improvements in numerical weather prediction models have given access to surface fluxes with high temporal and spatial resolution of sufficient quality for use in forcing ocean models.

• ECMWF: European Center for Medium-term Weather Forecasting

• INM: Instituto Nacional de Meteorología

• UIB: Universitat de les Illes Balears

Oil spill coastal sub-system: Trajectories

The oil spill coastal sub-system incorporates the information associated with the response to oil spills. The trajectories module predicts the spill trajectory taking into account the physical and chemical processes that affect the oil and is based on the General NOAA Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME).

Oil spill coastal sub-system: Environmental sensitivity

The Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) evaluates the coastal zone vulnerability combining physical, biological, geological and socio-economic parameters of the coastline into a single environmental sensitivity index to oil spills.

Management sub-system

The management sub-system is based on a geographical information system (GIS) for oil spill crisis management. It incorporates all the available information, identifies resources at risk, establishes protection priorities and appropriate response.

Application to Mallorca: MED05

MED05 exercise10th – 11th – 12th May 2005

MED05: System configuration

• Real time data• SST• CTD

• Atmospheric forcing• INM - HIRLAM (0.16º)

• Wave model• Puertos del Estado

• Oceanic circulation model• DieCAST (0.03º)• Nested to MFSTEP

• Oil spill model• GNOME• U. Cantabria

0 6 12 … 72 hours

MED05: Currents

• Comparison between real (intense color) and predicted trajectories (soft color).

• Points indicates the position every 12 hours.

• Circle represents the initial position.

• Title indicates the initial date.

MED05: Drifting buoys

• Comparison between real (intense color) and predicted trajectories (soft color).

• Points indicates the position every 12 hours.

• Circle represents the initial position.

• Title indicates the initial date.

MED05: Drifting buoys

• Comparison between real (intense color) and predicted trajectories (soft color).

• Points indicates the position every 12 hours.

• Circle represents the initial position.

• Title indicates the initial date.

MED05: Drifting buoys

• Comparison between real (intense color) and predicted trajectories (soft color).

• Points indicates the position every 12 hours.

• Circle represents the initial position.

• Title indicates the initial date.

MED05: Drifting buoys

Conclusions

• An ocean forecasting system for management of the Mediterranean coastal zone has been described.

• The system can be used for other applications like search and rescue operations.

• MED05 exercise demonstrates the capability of the system to provide real-time currents and drifting buoys predictions.

• MED05 exercise shows the importance of small scale variability in the Mediterranean Sea