Formerly the Cardinal Richelieu of Saudi. King’s advisor and Hd. of Royal Ct. Now removed from all positions of power. Engineered appoint. of Prince Bandar as Chief of the General Intelligence. Tuwaijri-Bandar axis has been key, along with UAE’s Crown Prince Mmhd bin Zayed al-Nahyan, in organising against the Muslim Brotherhood.

Legislative body advises the King & Exec Cabinet. 150 members (30 women). Expanding mandate to propose/amend existing laws without King’s consultation.

Al-Sheikh family. 2nd only to royal family in power. Has religious authority and supports the Saud family’s secular authority. The Grand Mufti and the speaker of the Shura are Al-Sheikh family members.

Convened when Nayef succeeded Sultan as Crown Prince (‘11) but not when naming King Salman to succeed Nayef in ‘12. Prince Talal resigned in protest.

Head of Shura Council.

Member of Min. Foreign Affairs since ‘75.

Majority stake in Kingdom Holding Co. Vocal critic of Gov’t policy

Former Amb. to U.K. & U.S. Former DG Intell. Dir.

Removed from DPM role in MoD post ‘09

Chairman of Alleg. Comm.

Removed as Pres. of Intel.

Agency ‘14

Religion

Government

Defence

Royal Family

Highest ranking 1st gen. non-Sudairi faction. If he were to ascend to the throne

(with no powerful sons his ascension is less threatening to other factions) he would

have a limited independent power base and consequently be considered beholden to a key group (likely King Abdullah’s sons

and allies).

Saudi Arabia Game of ThronesKey players in the looming transfer of power to a new generation of princes

KING ABDUL AZIZ IBN SAUD KING SAUD KING FAISAL K. KHALED KING FAHD KING ABDULLAH

Reigned 21 years 11 years 11 years 7 years 23 years 10 years

’32 ’53 ‘64 ‘75 ‘82 ‘05 ‘15KING SALMAN

Abdullah bin Abdulaziz (d. 2015)

Saud bin Abdulaziz (ousted 1964)

Faisal bin Abdulaziz (murdered 1975)

Khaled bin Abdulaziz (d. 1982)

Fahd bin Abdulaziz (d. 2005)

Sultan bin Abdulaziz (d. 2011)

Nayef bin Abdulaziz (d. 2012)

Salman bin Abdulaziz (crowned 2015)

Talal bin Abdulaziz

Muqrin bin Abdulaziz Crown Prince

Ahmed bin Abdulaziz Abdulaziz ibn Saud (d. 1953)

Mohammad bin Fahd bin Abdulaziz

Miteb bin Abduallah bin Abdulaziz

Mishaal bin Abdullah bin Abdulaziz

Turki bin Abdullah bin Abdulaziz

Khaled bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz

Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz

Salman bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz

Sultan bin Salman bin Abdulaziz

Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz

Faisal bin Salman bin Abdulaziz

Al-Waleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz

Khalid bin Talal bin Abdulaziz

Saud Al-Faisal bin Abdulaziz

Turki Al-Faisal bin Abdulaziz

Khaled Al-Faisal bin Abdulaziz

Mohammed bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz Dep. Crown Prince

Mishaal bin Abdulaziz

TSC turns big data into smart data for customers to strategically map, mine and monitor complex business environments, networks of issues, stakeholders, positions, influence and interests. www.thestakeholdercompany.com | info@thestakeholdercompany.com TSC accepts no liability for any loss or damage whatsoever arising from reliance on any information given or opinion expressed in this presentation.

1st of gen to reach Dep. Crown Prince. Signals power shift to the 2nd gen. May also signal longer term consolidation of Sudairi power  

Appeared to have been groomed for Dep. Crown Prince Saudi Arabian National Guard (appointed by father)

Dominant factions  

Sudairi 7 2nd gen. Strongest kin-based faction of 7 full brothers within the House of Saud, (“Al Fahd”), all children of Hassa bint Ahmed Al Sudairi and King Abdulaziz. Only Fahd has ever been King (‘82-’05). 2 have come close, having been appointed Crown Prince, only to have been outlived by the non-Sudairi King Abdullah

Key issue: the race to survive

Control over the kingdom’s 3 security portfolios continues to be key to being considered a dominant faction

King Salman & sons have continued to assert control over the sons of Sultan, whose influence has waned during the illness and subsequent death of their father

Defence Ministry

Ministry of Interior

Jan

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Yemen

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Oman

Iraq Jordan

Egypt

Sudan

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Israel

Syria

Qatar UAE

Bahrain Kuwait

Somalia The issue horizon The

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1st gen. 2nd gen.

Saud bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz

Former Gov. of East Prov. Allegedly replaced (‘13) for failing to contain sectarian unrest

Consist of the sons of Abdullah, Salman and Nayef. They depend on inter-faction relations & alliances including Sudairi groups (particularly the sons of Fahd and Sultan) and non-Sudairis such as Faisal’s sons

Mmhd bin Salman has control over the MoD while SANG remains under Mitib bin Abdullah. 30/1/15: Bandar bin Sultan removed as Sec Gen N’tl Sec Council and Council abolished. New security body established to be led by Mmhd bin Nayef, Khalid bin Bandar relieved as Chief of General Intelligence Presidency replaced by General Khalid bin Ali bin Abdullah Al-Humaidan. Reshuffle appears aimed to unify decision making on security matters under one body.

Gov. of Eastern Province Retained portfolio in ‘15 Cabinet reshuffle. Significant change in oil production policy unlikely given strong consultation with King’s immediate circle. Potential successors are either Prince Abdulaziz or Aramco CEO Khalid Al-Falih.

Central power

Rapid ascension to power. Considered to have great influence over King Salman (father)

1st member from grandson gen. in succession line Khaled al-Faisal replaced

Mishaal as Gov. of Mecca Prov. (30/ 1/15)

+37~  

Power distribution: lineage, leadership and personal character

30/1/15: Prince Abdulaziz (King’s son) named deputy oil minister

There are 33-35 critical ministries and other senior appointments. 11 are held by members of the royal family, and 8 by senior princes. 23 are technocrats who will play a critical role in preserving the continuity of power and most will remain in office regardless of how the succession progresses. 30/1/15: 12 public bodies (fields ranging from energy to education) abolished to streamline decision-making

Saudi Arabia, the linchpin of regional stability and the country that 1.7 billion Muslims turn towards 5 times daily, promotes that succession will be: an orderly transfer of power, stable, predictable and business as usual. Yet the death of the Saudi monarch has brought the challenges facing the country into sharp focus and shows these are hyper-turbulent times both at home and abroad.

On the home front, princely intrigue and tussle over who inherits the kingdom in a generational shift in power from the Saudi gerontocracy may yet lead to cracks in the Al Saud edifice. Outside the palace gates, the House of Saud faces quasi-existential fault lines to which it must either confront, curb or bend to. A restless unemployed ‘Youth Bulge’, increasingly armed with the ‘idea’ of the Arab Spring, social media and a sense of unjustness, are faced off against devout Wahhabism that sustains jihadist ideology, stokes sectarianism and exposes the monarchy to charges of hypocrisy. With oil supporting 80% of the budget, cheque book diplomacy may buy social acquiescence for a time but at a high cost to the economy.

Abroad, the territory looks increasingly uncharted and volatile. The historic Sunni and Shia fault line has reopened, virulent new strains of Sunni jihadism have emerged, Saudi-Iranian proxy struggles spread and half a dozen conflicts rage. No state nor border seems immune from violent, potentate shifting change. Set this against a recalibration of the U.S.- Saudi security for oil pact, and the fight for oil supremacy vs. shale-oil upstarts. Old status quos can no longer be counted upon.

Faisal bin Banda

Replaced by Faisal bin Bandar as Gov. of Riyadh (30/ 1/15)

Several top (comparative liberal) officials removed from Justice Ministry and Religious Police (30/1/15)

Capital Market Authority

Dr. Azzam bin Mohammad Al-

Dakhil

Appointed Minister (30/1/15)

Replaced by Abdulrahman bin Abdulmohsen Al-Fadhli (30/1/15)

Replaced by Khalid bin Abdullah Al-Araj (30/1/15)

Replaced by Adel bin Aqeel Al-Khatib (30/1/15)

Dr. Walid bin Mohammad bin Saleh Al-Samaan

Mohammed Jadaan Appoint. Head (30/1/15)

Appointed (30/1/15)

Replaced by Dr. Majid bin Abdullah Al-Qusaibi (30/1/15)

Replaced by Sheikh Saleh bin Abdulaziz Al AsShaikh (30/1/15)

Remains unclear if change will impact plan to open stock market

to foreign investors in ‘15

30/1/15: abolished formerly top decision-making body (since ‘00). Responsibilities now fall under new economic ministry and Al-Nami.

Supreme Council for Petroleum and

Minerals