rule the market - karvy onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue025.pdf• tech mahindra...

ISSUE: 025

23RD FEBRUARY, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

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It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

Declining NPAs for banks - Too early to celebrate

Even though it’s good news that the NPAs are getting reduced from March 2018, it is yet to be

confirmed that Indian banks are really out of their struggling phase. The RBI’s Financial Stability Report

(FSR) states that in a major recovery from the Non-performing assets, the Gross NPA magnitude of

both public and private sector banks showed a six months decline from March 2015 before the Asset

Quality Review (AQR) efforts began. While agreeing that a fall in Gross NPAs from 11.5% in March

2018 to 10.8% in Sept 2018 suggests that the NPA problem has saturated, it mustn’t be forgotten that

the March 2018 NPAs were extremely high. Additionally, the February 2018 circular led to stressed

advances merging into NPAs adding to the disclosures over the years using the AQR method. It’s not

a major surprise to see the reduction in NPAs since then. Regarding the increase in credit growth to

13.1% (YoY) in Sept 2018, it was just limited to the retail and service segments. However, this is not a

considerable achievement as most of these loans are driven by personal banks which are in favour of

the retail segment, while the PSU banks credit growth increased from 5.9% in Mar 2018 to 9.1% in Sep

2018 which is far below the 22.5% increase in private banks in Sep 2018. Growth in loans to a cross-

section of the economy may require a reasonable time. However, the government in order to push the

economy by increasing the loans should make sure that the governance reforms in the banks aren’t

kept aside.

The recent relaxation of NPA norms with respect to MSMEs is perceivable, however, it has to be viewed

against the report’s observation that the performance of PSBs within the MSME segment trails that of

other intermediaries. The FSR observes that disposal by personal banks is within the nature of asset-

backed loans, whereas PSBs are extending plain capital and term loan structures. Therefore, the flow

of credit to MSMEs is multiplied by the governance problem in PSBs. It’d appear that their massive,

decentralized network isn’t translating into a stronger grasp of micro-realities. Banks must encourage

various set of skills at the branch level.

What else could be done?

In attempting to push loans, the Central bank and also the Centre must rethink the current approach

of blaming bankers for all the NPAs. A distinction has to be created between genuine lending decision

gone wrong and one that smacks of corruption. It’s all too straightforward for a public sector banker

to prevent lending altogether with the worry of being entangled in a ‘vigilance case’. Rather, the main

focus ought to be on making clean processes and sturdy, responsible boards, together with ‘verticals’

of sector-specific consultants. In short, Banking reforms have begun just recently.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-14

Events 16

TeamDr Ravi Singh

Arun Kumar Mantri

Aditya Kistampally

Deepak Balkrushna Sakure

M V Narasinga Rao

Naga Chaitanya

Osho Krishan

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Vivek Korkondabhattar

Konpal Pali

Arvind Vinjamoori

Cherukuri Surya Sandeep

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Ramesh Chenchala

Ravikanth Pedapati

Ravi Pandey

Anup B.P

Bharath Sunnam

Amit Kumar

Vinod Jaya Kumar

Karvy Head Office

Karvy Stock Broking Limited, Plot No.31, 6th Floor, Karvy Millennium Towers, Financial District, Nanakramguda, Hyderabad, 500 032, India.

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- VIVEK RANJAN MISRAHead-Fundamental Research

EQUITY

Economy

• India needs to take steps to boost economic growth as the inflation outlookremains low, the RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) said in minutes.

• The EPFO has decided to provide 8.65% interest on PF deposits for 2018-19against 8.55% in the last year to its 6 crore subscribers, first hike since FY16.

• The Securities and Exchange Board of India revised the minimum haircut applicable on government securities, a move which would increaseClearing Corporation of India’s safeguard against the falling market value of government securities it receives as collateral, the regulator said in a press release.

Automobile

• The upcoming implementation of BS-VI emission norms from 14st April2020, which will make vehicles significantly more expensive, is expected topush up demand in the second half of the year.

Technology

• Tech Mahindra announced Rs. 19.6bn share buyback on 21st February 2019. The buyback of up to 20.6mn shares which represents 2.1% of the total number of shares. The buyback price is set at a price of Rs. 950.

• NIIT Technologies Ltd. collaborated with Microsoft to offer cloud solutions for its enterprise clients. The company will focus on comprehensive cloud needs of enterprises, from infrastructure to business applications.

Steel

• The government has stopped the classification of steel producers as integrated, primary, and secondary to give a level-playing field to all steelmakers.

Pharma

• Cadila Healthcare Ltd. received the final approval from the US Food and Drug Administration to market phytonadione tablets, a generic version of Mephyton, in 5-mg strength.

Telecommunication

• Reliance Communications Ltd. has begun the process of raising funds to repay dues of Rs. 5.5bn owed to Ericsson India Pvt. Ltd. in order to comply with the Supreme Court’s direction.

Oil & Gas

• The new norms for bidding for oil and gas blocks approved recently by the Union Cabinet will be applicable prospectively, Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pardhan said.

• Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd. targeted capital expenditure of Rs. 320bn for itself and Rs. 55 bn for its overseas arm ONGC Videsh Ltd. for 2019-20 (Apr-Mar).

Cement

• JK Cement is likely to invest around Rs. 450 crores for setting up two grey cement grinding units at Balasinor in Gujarat and Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• Japanese manufacturing activity contracted in February for the first time in two-and-a-half years as factories cut output amid shrinking domestic andexport orders, survey showed on 21st Feb.

• The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to cut market-based rates andfurther lower banks’ reserve ratios (RRR) to boost credit growth and reduce firms’ borrowing costs.

• New orders for the key US made capital goods unexpectedly fell in December amid declining demand for machinery and primary metals, pointing to a sustained slowdown in business spending.

• Downing Street has delayed an announcement on no-deal Brexit Tariffs to avoid backlash from lawmakers so that the report comes after the Brexit votein Parliament.

TRENDSHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 35871.48 35018 35445 36141 36410 Down

NIFTY 10791.65 10506 10649 10872 10952 Down

NIFTYBANK 26867.55 26379 26623 27106 27345 Down

KOTAKBANK 1,237.90 1181 1209 1282 1326 Down

YESBANK 222.00 193 207 230 238 Up

RELIANCE 1,232.35 1187 1210 1256 1280 Down

TCS 1,925.65 1789 1857 2018 2110 Down

IBULHSGFIN 679.95 564 622 725 770 Up

ITC 274.30 267 271 280 286 Down

AXISBANK 702.05 671 686 712 722 Up

TATASTEEL 502.30 451 476 516 530 Up

DRREDDY 2,639.50 2427 2533 2718 2796 Down

TECHM 826.00 762 794 849 872 Up

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCompany name Date

KHAITAN (INDIA) LTD 25-Feb-19

UNITED DRILLING TOOLS LTD 25-Feb-19

ELANTAS BECK INDIA LTD. 26-Feb-19

HDFC AMC Ltd 26-Feb-19

SANOFI INDIA Ltd 26-Feb-19

STANDARD CHARTERED PLC 26-Feb-19

KSB Ltd 27-Feb-19

MERCK Ltd 27-Feb-19

RAIN INDUSTRIES Ltd. 27-Feb-19

VESUVIUS INDIA Ltd 27-Feb-19

REC Ltd. 28-Feb-19

ABB 01-Mar-19

KSTREET - 23RD FEBRUARY 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

NIFTY IN

DEX

SENSEX

IND

EX

SPBSMIP IN

DEX

SPBSSIP IND

EX

NIFTYJR IN

DEX

NSEM

CA

P IND

EX

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

NSEA

UTO

IND

EX

NSEBA

NK

IND

EX

NSESRV

IND

EX

NSEPH

RM IN

DEX

NSEIT IN

DEX

NSEM

ET IND

EX

NSEN

RG IN

DEX

NSEC

ON

IND

EX

NSEREA

L IND

EX

NSEFM

CG

IND

EX

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

CC

MP IN

DEX

IND

U IN

DEX

SPX IN

DEX

NK

Y IND

EX

HSI IN

DEX

SHC

OM

P IND

EX

UK

X IN

DEX

CA

C IN

DEX

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

RELIA

NC

E INFR

AS

TRU

CTU

RE LTD

JIND

AL S

TEEL & P

OW

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STER

LITE TECH

NO

LOG

IES LTD

DIS

H TV

IND

IA LTD

DEW

AN

HO

US

ING

FINA

NC

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RP

DILIP

BU

ILDC

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LTD

MP

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SIS

LTD

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SEN

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INFO

TECH

LTD

IDB

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NK

LTD

HEG

LTD

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

VED

AN

TA LTD

OIL &

NA

TUR

AL G

AS

C

OR

P LTD

IND

IAN

OIL C

OR

P LTD

TATA

MO

TOR

S LTD

TATA

STEEL LTD

AX

IS B

AN

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BH

AR

TI INFR

ATEL LTD

SU

N

PH

AR

MA

CEU

TICA

L …

EICH

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OTO

RS

LTD

YES

BA

NK

LTD

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

15-02-20

19

16-02-20

19

17-02-20

19

18-02-20

19

19-02-20

19

20-0

2-2019

21-02-20

19

22-02-20

19

FII/FPI DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

H.G. Infra Engineering Ltd CMP Rs.197.3Target Price Rs.240Upside 21.6%

Investment Rationale

• H.G. Infra Engineering Limited (HGIEL) is primarily engaged in the construction of infrastructure projects like highways, roads and bridges.

• The company also executes civil construction projects like extension and grading of runways, railways, land development and water pipeline projects.

• In view of the current order book outstanding, which stands at 4.25x to the FY18 revenue, we expect the revenue to grow at 26.3% CAGR during FY18-20E with the EBITDA margin to expand by 70 bps to reach 15.6% levels by FY20E.

• The company addresses projects from NHAI and MoRTH as well as private players like Tata Projects and IRB. The model focuses on efficient execution, proprietary ownership of construction equipment, complete integration, subcontracting, and skilled manpower that leads to cost optimization and better margins.

• We hold a positive view of the company and expect the company will grow in revenue and profitability given its track record of execution capabilities.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 10

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 355.75/170

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 12858.2/180.6

EPS (Rs.) 19.4

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 9.0

Dividend Yield (%) 0.3%

Stock Exchange BSE

P/E CHARTValuation

At CMP of 197.3, HG Infra is trading at 7.76x to FY20E EPS. In view of the robust order book outstanding coupled with its execution capabilities, we are of a positive view about the company’s future performance. However, excessive order book concentration & dependence on subcontracting remains key things to watch for. We assign a conservative 9x to its FY20E EPS (25% discount to its peer value) for its core operations. We arrive at a SOTP based target price at Rs. 240 with a ‘BUY’ rating.

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

Net Income 19317 21151 25772

EBITDA 3862 3611 4269

EBITDA Margin(%) 20.0 17.1 16.6

Net profit 2721 2177 2454

EPS(Rs) 19.4 15.5 17.5

RoE(%) 23.5 15.8 15.1

PE(x) 12.0 13.1 11.6

73.7

1.7

15.1

9.4

Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

KNR Sensex

55.4

3

28.8

12.9

Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Mar

-18

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

KNR Sensex

73.7

1.7

15.1

9.4

Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

KNR Sensex

55.4

3

28.8

12.9

Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Mar

-18

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

KNR Sensex


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

KNR Constructions Ltd CMP Rs.195.6Target Price Rs.260Upside 32.9%

Investment Rationale

• KNRCL provides engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services across various fast-growing sectors namely roads & highways, irrigation and urban water infrastructure management.

• KNR’s OB witnessed a 16% CAGR during the period FY 14-18 in line with the government’s road awards with the average order inflow being Rs. 30 bn during FY16-18. It has a consistent margin profile with around 15% EBITDAM, and RoE and RoCE at >15%.

• We expect KNR to witness an order inflow of Rs. 25bn and Rs. 40bn for FY20 & FY21E.

• The larger part of irrigation projects are witnessing a higher execution level, thus, we expect most of the irrigation projects to be completed by March 2019.

• KNR continues to bid for both Road and Irrigation projects which are the core strength of the company.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 2.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 339.7/163.3

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 27497.7/386

EPS (Rs.) 19.4

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 11.1

Dividend Yield (%) 0.4%

Stock Exchange BSE

ValuationAt CMP of Rs. 195.6, KNR Constructions’ standalone (EPC business) is trading at 11.17x to FY20E EPS. Infrastructure companies are slipping in to value zone due to recent market correction because of challenges in achieving FCs for already awarded projects. Considering the order book and current execution rates, we value the EPC business at 12x to its FY20E EPS to arrive at the value of Rs. 209 per share. Thus, we arrive at a SOTP based value of Rs. 260 per share with a ‘BUY’ RATING%.

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 18 FY 19 FY 20

Net Income 19317 21151 25772

EBITDA 3862 3611 4269

EBITDA(%) 20 17.1 16.6

Net Profit 2721 2177 2454

EPS(Rs.) 19.4 15.5 17.5

PE (x) 23.5 15.8 15.1

73.7

1.7

15.1

9.4

Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Mar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

KNR Sensex

55.4

3

28.8

12.9

Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Mar

-18

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

KNR Sensex

73.7

1.7

15.1

9.4

Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0 M

ar-18

Apr-18

May-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Aug-18

Sep-18

Oct-18

Nov-18

Dec-18

Jan-19

Feb-19

KNR Sensex

55.4

3

28.8

12.9

Promoters

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Mar

-18

Apr

-18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

KNR Sensex


EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Oberoi Realty Limited

OBEROIRLTY rallied from 199.20 levels in September 2015 to 604.75 levels in April 2018 and corrected from there to 440 levels, which is around 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the

said rally and bounced back to close above 38.2% retracement levels of the rally, indicating the end of the correction. The stock has given a breakout from 11 weeks of consolidation in the

weekly chart, indicating a fresh leg of the rally from these levels. Adding to it, the Parabolic SAR and Heiken candlesticks are signaling positive trend on the weekly charts, reflecting the

stock is well placed to move higher in the coming days. 14 periods RSI is trading above the 9-period averages in the weekly chart, indicating positive momentum. The stock is trading well

above all of its major moving averages on daily as well as weekly charts, indicating strong positive momentum in the counter for all major time frames. On Bollinger bands, weekly chart

stock has tested the upper bands and the bands are expanding, indicating positive momentum. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent opportunity for medium to long term

investors to accumulate the stock around 495-500 levels for the potential upside targets of 605-640 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 430 levels.

Tata Steel Limited

TATASTEEL rallied from 173 levels in September 2015 to 732 levels in January 2018 and corrected from there to 441.35 levels, which is around 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the said

rally and bounced back, indicating the end of the correction. The stock has given a breakout from bullish head and shoulder chart pattern in the daily line chart, indicating a fresh leg of

the rally from these levels. Adding to it, the Parabolic SAR and Heiken candlesticks suggest a positive trend in the counter on the weekly charts. 14 periods RSI is trading at 45.34 above

the 9-period averages trading at 36.94 in the weekly chart, indicating positive momentum. The stock has taken support around its 200 day exponential moving averages on weekly charts

indicating strength in the counter for a long term. On Bollinger bands monthly chart, the stock has tested the lower bands and has formed a primary reversal candle, indicating fresh leg

of the rally. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock around 495-500 levels for the potential upside

targets of 575-590 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 440 levels.

Stock OBEROIRLTY

CMP 503.1

Action BUY

Entry 495-500

Average 450

Stop Loss 430

Target 1 605

Target 2 640

Time Frame 6-9 Months

Stock TATASTEEL

CMP 502.3

Action BUY

Entry 495-500

Average 450

Stop loss 440

Target 1 575

Target 2 590

Time Frame 6-9 Months


EQUITY

Sentiment

Stop Loss 751

Target 706

Lot Size 700

Margin 90549

21-DEMA 745

Open Interest Shares 1017800

Change in OI 1017055

Cost of Carry (%) 17.07

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY METAL (2842.20) after a prolonged losing streak has managed to recoup some lost ground and closed with gains of more than 5.00% for the week passed by. The index has posted 8 continuous weeks of losses and has lost more than 10% for the year till date. The index has snapped its series of continuous clocking of fresh 52 wk lows. The broader index Nifty 50 has ended with a slight gain of around 0.65%, which depicts the power of short covering and value buying in the stock. On the first day of the week. the stock has formed panic bottom and then rallied over last 4 days. However, the index is still placed below its all major short, medium and long term moving averages confirming the ongoing downtrend and the recent derivative and price action suggests pull back rally is on and may extend further. For now, major long term major supports are placed at 2600-2650 zone, from where sharp bounce is seen and hence long term investments may be done with stop below the recent lows. Going into the internals, the breadth of the index is weak and stands at 11 gainers and rest 4 remained as losers or ended at flat line. Leading the leader board, WELCORP, JINDALSTEL, VEDL have gained more than 15%, even SAIL, TATASTEEL and JSWSTEEL have also gained more than 5% and on the laggard board COALINDIA and MOIL lost in the range of 2-4%. Technically, immediate supports for the NIFTY METAL index are pegged around 2700-2730 levels followed by 2600-2650. Whereas on the upside, immediate resistances are at 2850-2880 levels followed by 2930-2940 levels. Going forward, we expect the index to trade with positive bias in the range of 2750 to 2900.

NIFTY BANK (26,867.55) underperformed Nifty with a gain of 0.27% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty gained by 0.63%. During the week, the index took crucial support at 26,620 levels and witnessed a 480 point rally during the week towards 27,100 levels. Considering the technical setup on the daily charts, the index may continue to remain sideways in the short term ahead in the range of 26,400 to 27,600 levels. On the stock specific front, PNB gained the most with 4.78% during the week. The Centre has approved Rs. 48,239 crore in capital for a dozen public-sector banks (PSBs) including Allahabad Bank, Corporation Bank and PNB taking its total infusion into state-run lenders to almost 1 lakh crore so far this fiscal. The entire infusion will be through recapitalization bonds. It is expected to help PNB, Union Bank, Andhra Bank and Syndicate Bank from falling into the prompt corrective action (PCA) framework, apart from bolstering the capital base of various PSBs to facilitate greater lending to sensitive sectors like MSMEs and agriculture ahead of polls. Similarly, higher capital could enable PCA banks such as Allahabad Bank and Corporation Bank to get out of the corrective regime. On the other side, KOTAKBANK lost by 3.56%. The Kotak Mahindra Bank share price slipped in trade amid reports that ING group was looking to sell its stake through block deals. Technically, Bank Nifty may face crucial resistance at 27,200 and 27,590 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 26,650 levels followed by 26,380 levels.

NIFTY REALTY (233.15) ended the week with a gain of around 4.6% in line with NIFTY 50 which

closed with a gain of around 0.60%. The breadth of the REALTY index was also positive as 8

stocks out of 9 stocks in the index ended on a positive note while 1 stock ended on a negative

note. Stocks which gained in the last week were PRESTIGE, DLF, OBEROIRLTY, IBREALEST,

SUNTECK, BRIGADE, GODREJPROP and SOBHA which gained around 8.34%, 6.96%, 6.89, 4.83,

2.83, 1.84, 1.82 and 1.59 respectively, while PHOENIXLTD lost -1.00%. Technically, the said index is

trading well above its daily & weekly 20-day Simple moving average, indicating bullish bias. The

weekly 14-period RSI is trading above its 9 periods EMA, indicating a bullish bias in the near term.

Going ahead for the coming week, the index has support at 226 levels and below it at 220 levels

while resistance is pegged at 243 levels and above it at 246 levels.

NIFTY AUTO (8278.95) outperformed the Nifty 50 index on week to week basis and ended the week by over 1.50% which was majorly due to the surge in the heavyweight counters like M&M, EICHERMOT, TATAMOTORS, MOTHERSUMI & ASHOKLEY which surged around 3%, 2.10%, 8.20%, 9.50% and 2.75% respectively while other heavyweights like MARUTI, HEROMOTOCO & BAJAJ-AUTO remained subdued and settled the week on a flat to negative note. Technically, the index has witnessed support near 8000 levels which is the previous swing low and bounced from the same suggesting it to be a strong support. Even the index has witnessed robust volumes on closing basis for the whole week setting up a bullish view in the counter. The next support for the counter is pegged around 8000 levels which is the swing low followed by 7800 levels. While on the contrary, the resistance is pegged around the unfilled gap i.e. 8380-8400 levels, followed by 8600 levels. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed good recovery from the lower band towards the mean of the Bollinger band (20, 2) and has settled near the mean affirming our bullish stance. Even the 14 period RSI is placed around 38-48 levels suggesting further upside room in the counter. Going forward for the coming week, it is advisable to trade cautiously in the counter and to look for stock specific action as there might be momentum throughout the week because of the monthly sales data.

JSW STEEL LTD: BUY JSWSTEEL (MAR FUTURE) | CMP: 287.15 SECTOR: METAL

JSWSTEEL managed to close with gains of 7.16%, whereas NIFTY METAL Index closed with a gain of 6.14% on a weekly closing basis exhibiting outperformance of the stock in comparison to the benchmark. After making a swing low of 256.60 in the earlier week, stock price gradually recovered in the last few sessions. In the last session of the week, the stock price gained momentum with splurge in volume exhibiting buying interest in the counter. Technically, stock price managed to sustain above its 21-DEMA which is currently placed near 275 levels, while in the last session it closed near its 50-DEMA (286). On the momentum setup, 14-period RSI moved above the equilibrium level, reaffirming that momentum may accelerate further in sessions to come. Prices after piercing lower Bollinger Band (20,2) witnessed turnaround and moved and sustained above the middle band. Hence, we recommend Smart Trader to initiate a Long position near 282 levels for the higher target of 312, keeping stop loss below 262 levels.

Sentiment

Stop Loss 262

Target 312

Lot Size 1500

Margin 78529

21-DEMA 275

Open Interest Shares 61759500

Change in OI 61759225

Cost of Carry (%) 3.19

AMARA RAJA BATTERIES LTD: SELL AMARAJABAT (MAR FUTURE) | CMP: 731.80 SECTOR: AUTO-ANCL

AMARAJABAT closed the week on a flat note, while Nifty Auto closed with a gain of 1.87% during the same period clearly underperforming the said index. The stock’s March 2019 month contract closed the week with a negative return of around 0.50%. The stock is currently placed below all the major moving averages on the daily as well as an hourly chart. The stock is making lower highs and lower lows for the past few trading sessions which indicate ongoing selling pressure in the stock. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14 period RSI is placed below the signal line on the daily chart which re-affirms the negative view in this counter. On the derivative front, the stock has seen short accumulation in the week passed by indicating weak bias in the near term. Hence, we suggest smart traders short this counter around 735 levels with a stop loss placed at 751 levels for the target of 706 levels.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (10,791.65): Nifty, after making a swing low at 10,585 levels, witnessed a sharp surge towards 10,808 levels and closed with a weekly gain of 0.63%. The index witnessed moderate gains during the week to close at 10,791 levels as the market participants shrugged off the dovish comments from the RBI. Most of the six-member monetary policy committee of the RBI was in favor of spurring growth amid a soft inflation outlook on a sustained fall in food prices, the minutes of the February monetary policy meeting released on Thursday showed. In the current scenario, 10,880-11,000 zone may act as a hurdle zone which is in confluence with prior swing highs and 50% Fibonacci retracement for the down move of 11,760 levels to the major swing low of 10,030 levels. This indicates that the above resistance zone might act as strong resistance in the short run ahead. Nifty may indicate further strength once the resistance at 11,000 levels is confidently taken out from the downside. For the week ahead to watch, market participants may lay their focus on Federal Fiscal Deficit (Jan), and GDP numbers releasing on 28th February and Manufacturing PMI releasing on 1st March. On the derivatives front, Open interest data suggests that the index may likely to trade in the range of 10,700 to 11,000 levels as the index witnessed highest OI addition at these levels, while 10,400 and 10,900 levels may act as minor support and resistance respectively.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

Type: Buy Call in NIFTY

First leg Buy NIFTY FEB 10750 CE @ 95

Max Profit Unlimited

BEP 10845

Max Loss 7125

Stop loss 05 (Option levels)

Rationale The Index has formed a downtrend reversal pattern on the daily charts on Wednesday and has seen a very sharp rally over last three days, indicating possible halt of the previous major down move. On a broader time frame, the index is struck in the range of 10,500 to 11,100 over last three and half months. Going forward, holding on to the key supports of 10,700 zones, the index is likely to remain in its uptrend.

Type: Call Ratio in BANKNIFTY

First leg Buy 1 Lot of BANKNIFTY FEB 26800 CE @ 250

Second leg Sell 2 Lots of BANKNIFTY FEB 27200 CE @ 70


BEP Lower BEP 26900 and Upper BEP 27500

Max Loss 2200 Below 26900 and Unlimited above 27500

Stop loss 220 on Cumulative Option Premium

Rationale The Banking Index is struck in the range of 26,500 to 27,400 over last few weeks and this week, the index has given bullish reversal and given confirmation. The index is placed near its cluster of short-term moving averages. Hence, bullish to neutral view for near term.

Type: Buy Put in ASIANPAINT

First leg Buy ASIANPAINT Feb 1400 PE @ 16.50

BEP 1383.50


Max Loss 9900

Stop Loss 10.00 (option levels)

Rationale The stock has been trading below its entire major short term exponential moving averages in daily chart. The 14 day RSI is trading below its 9 period averages, indicating weakness. The stock has witnessed increase in open interest to the extent of 219,600 shares in February series i.e. around 4.09% on Friday with decrease in price.

Type: Buy Call in RECLTD

First leg Buy one lot of RECLTD FEB 132.50 CE @ 2.25

BEP 134.75


Max Loss 13500

Rationale The stock has given a breakout from last 10 months trading range and is currently trading with a gain of more than 6.50% for the month and 9.00% for the year. Its current month derivative activity suggests bullish view for the near term. Hence, bullish view for near term.

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7KSTREET - 23RD FEBRUARY 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

DISHTV 37.35 13.53 77104000 38.24

IRB 130 7.48 8896000 36.74

AMBUJACEM 210.95 3.00 14957500 26.76

CHOLAFIN 1188.3 0.07 964000 22.65

AJANTPHARM 984.25 1.03 1306000 21.15

ALBK 45.85 9.17 34372000 19.69

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


SREINFRA 27.7 13.99 6984000 -24.71

ADANIPORTS 354.3 1.19 18285000 -17.09

NESTLEIND 10685.5 1.42 305350 -15.64

SIEMENS 991.8 3.09 1865050 -13.23

ONGC 148.6 10.07 45296250 -12.23

RELINFRA 133.75 16.35 8819200 -10.92

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


KOTAKBANK 1237.90 -3.56 15981600 81.68

ENGINERSIN 106.20 -2.21 15555400 60.36

KPIT 107.75 -1.06 4110750 46.51

NHPC 23.55 -1.05 41256000 30.71

TORNTPOWER 232.70 -2.10 2349000 27.94

JUBLFOOD 1295.2 -0.43 3618500 25.21

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


PVR 1491.90 -0.14 1472000 -7.54

AMARAJABAT 730.15 -1.39 1017800 -6.31

INFIBEAM 35.75 -9.38 18772000 -5.65

BOSCHLTD 18120.75 -0.19 130620 -4.87

HEXAWARE 358.05 -0.46 3351000 -3.79

BHARATFIN 921.05 -2.41 5158500 -2.50

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

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1020

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104

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00

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1120

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Call Put

-6000

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104

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0

Call Put

0

10

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40

50

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2620

0

2630

0

264

00

2650

0

2660

0

2670

0

2680

0

2690

0

270

00

2710

0

2720

0

Call Put

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2620

0

2630

0

264

00

2650

0

2660

0

2670

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270

00

2710

0

2720

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Call Put

-600

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0

200

400

600

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380

385

390

395

400

405



-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

1520

1525

1530

1535

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1545




COMMODITIES

BULLIONIn the week gone by, the global bullion market had witnessed a large volatile movement reacting to various economic and political factors. During the first part of the week, gold prices were on rising trend on increased safe-haven asset buying across the board. There is increasing political instability in the US on raising funds for building a border wall along with Mexico and the UK on Brexit deal kept the gold on elevated levels. Because of these factors, CME gold futures rallied to 10 months high during the week. However, the trend was reversed in the last two trading sessions after the release of US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, wherein it had signaled for one interest rate hike in 2019. Soon after the release of meeting minutes, CME gold price fell from 10 month high. During the week, major economic releases were core durable goods order for the month of January, which came at 0.1% against the previous reading of -0.4% and weekly unemployment claims stood at 216,000 against a prior number of 239,000. On the domestic front, MCX gold prices rallied to more than 5 ½ years of Rs. 34031 per 10 grams during the week taking cues from the international market as well as depreciation of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. However, towards the end of the week, prices pared most of the gains on account of profit booking. To support the fall in the domestic gold prices, Indian Rupee also appreciated against US Dollar.

BASE METALSBase metals started the week with an initial weakness on Monday’s session as the US markets were closed in observance of President Washington’s Birthday and later turned to the positive note observing the global economic factors. But the positiveness is capped by the fall in Japanese Manufacturing activity and towards the end of week, weakness in growth of US capital goods orders and manufacturing activity, existing home sales made the markets to develop the concerns of demand from the US; however, optimism in US-China trade talks had made the prices negate the former and revive the positivity. China recycled 5.1 million tons of aluminum scrap in 2018, up 1% from 5.05 million tons in 2017. China Customs data showed that the imports of aluminium scrap in 2018 fell 30% to around 1.5 million tons, and most were from the US and Europe. On the economic front, Chinese banks extended a record 3230 billion Yuan ($476.87 billion) in net new Yuan loans in January, sharply more than expected, as policymakers try to prevent a sharper economic slowdown in the world’s top metals consumer. This move gave support to the rise in prices of metals on Monday’s session at Shanghai front. Mining giant Glencore has bought 200,000 tons of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange and will take delivery of the metal from warehouses owned by ISTIM UK in Port Klang, Malaysia. Hebei province launched a fresh round of rectification works to reduce the pollution of the waste lead-acid battery, according to a statement on the website of the Hebei government on January 29. The province will also target five illegal activities, to prevent pollution in the collecting, storage, delivery, and treatment of waste lead batteries. China produced 26.71 million tons of stainless steel in 2018, up 933,100 tons or 3.62% from 2017. Output of #300 was 12.82 million tons, up 100,000 tons or 0.78%, versus #400 at 5.47 million tons, up 399,000 tons or 7.30%, and #200 at 8.26 million tons, up 375,300 tons or 4.54%, all from 2017. Zinc mine output in Australia increased significantly in 2018. A further 5.9% rise in Europe was influenced by higher output in Finland, Greece, Macedonia and the Russian Federation that more than offset reductions in Poland and Sweden.

COTTONDomestic cotton futures witnessed smart recovery during prior week tracking firmness in global prices driven by optimism over ease of trade dispute between the US and China. The market was well supported by a series of positive comments passed by president Trump regarding well progress on a trade deal between the US and China. After finding support near 69-70 cent/ lb zone prices for May cotton futures traded at ICE has gained by more than 6% in last 6 sessions mainly due to short covering and ruling above 74 cent/lb mark on Friday. Technically, prices were ruling oversold zone and now recovering on the hope of improvement of trade with China. Spot prices of benchmark S-6 cotton remained down during the week ruled in range of Rs.41200- 41500 per candy due to muted demand at the physical market. Domestic fundamentals are still unsupportive due to lingering demand concerns. Despite weaker production outlook prices are unable to hold the gains mainly due to the subdued demand from millers. Major Cotton agencies have reduced their forecast of cotton consumption in India due to poor offtake by millers. Millers are going for hand to mouth buying due to tumbling export of cotton and yarn from India. Cotton Corporation of India has procured about 8.5 lakh bales of cotton in season 2018-19 and could buy about 15 lakh bales by end of the season as per news sources. USDA trimmed the production estimates for India from 27.5 million bales (346.2 lakh bales of 170 kg each) of 480 lb each to 27 million bales wherein export projection was improved from 4.4 million bales to 4.5 million bales during February. USDA reduced its estimates for cotton consumption in India from 25.3 million bales ( 324 lakh bales of 170 kg each) to 24.8 million bales.

OIL & OILSEEDSSoybean futures traded on a negative note for the most part of the week due to lowering demand at prevailing levels. Sell off in global prices due to subdued monthly import in China impacted market sentiments negatively. CBOT soybean futures traded down on uncertainty over the trade negotiation between US and China.

China released its trade data for the month of Jan showed China brought in 7.38 million tons of soybeans in January, down from 8.48 million tons a year earlier, lower by 13% YoY. Brazil’s agriculture statistics agency, Conab, lowered its estimate of the country’s soybean crop to 115.3 million tons, from 118.8 million in January. Soybean prices are expected to trade sideways today due to the absence of fresh cues to the market. The soybean market is closely watching the ongoing trade deal between US and China and any positive development could support the prices further. However, huge stocks at physical market and shrinking crush margin for millers could cap the excessive gains in prices. Mustard seeds futures at NCDEX platform traded mixed to lower due to reports of rise in acreages for upcoming season. The area under mustard seed cultivation has touched 69.37 lakh hectares as on 15th Feb against 67.06 lakh hac of the prior year, higher by 3.44% YoY. MCX CPO futures traded down on Thursday following firmness in Indian currency. Malaysia’s palm oil exports from Feb. 1-20 slightly rose 0.03-0.8% from a month earlier as per AmSpec Agri Malaysia and Intertek Testing Services.

SPICESDuring the week ended on 22nd February, commodities such as turmeric, jeera and cardamom in the spices basket traded downside, while dhaniya was in the sideways league. MCX Cardamom futures started off negatively to be in the falling trend for first three days of the week; prices fell to their multi-week lows of Rs.1442 per kg in terms of continuous C1 contract tracking limited demand at the spot market amid decent arrivals as against the expectations. However, prices recovered slightly from lower levels on profit booking as they traded positive for the last two days of the week. Concerns regarding the supply in the coming days due to lower production supported prices to note a small recovery. Hence, Mar futures traded in the range of Rs.1442-1490 per kg before closing at Rs.1470 per kg, down by 2.69% from its last week close. At the spot market, arrivals until Friday were at 389 MTs as compared to last week full arrivals of 430 MTs avg. auction prices were on a mixed note as min prices fell further by Rs.12 per kg WoW to Rs.1433 per kg while max prices recovered by Rs.51 per kg WoW to Rs.1382 per kg. Turmeric futures at the NCDEX platform continued their falling trend for the 8 continuous weeks; increase in arrivals at the spot market with higher moisture content weighed on the demand. Prices started in the negative note and extended loss trading down for the entire week as they fell to their 9-week low of Rs. 6186 per quintal. Hence, most active Apr futures made a low and high of Rs. 6186/quintal and Rs. 6322/quintal respectively before ending the week at Rs. 6200/quintal, lower by 1.68% WoW; on the other hand, next month May futures closed with a loss of 2.10% from its last close. NCDEX Jeera futures traded in a range bound levels with negative bias during the week. Prices were in the positive direction for the initial two days due to the extended recovery from the prior week. Improvement in the buying activities at the spot market also supported gains; however, prices resumed downtick for the rest of the week tracking higher arrivals at the spot market amid higher crop expectations. Further, the lack of major export demand scenario for old crop waiting for new crop weighed prices. Hence, active futures traded in the range of Rs.15300-15760 per quintal before closing at Rs.15380 per quintal, lower by 1.16% WoW, while Apr futures closed with a loss of 0.75% from last week close. Dhaniya futures traded sideways during the week; prices started positively but failed to hold on to the gains. Limited demand after increasing arrivals of higher moisture content due to rainfall weighed prices while supply concerns in terms of lower production capped loss. Hence, Apr futures traded in the range of Rs.6130-6280 per quintal before closing at Rs.6240/quintal, higher by 0.42%, while May futures closed with a small loss of 0.13% from its previous close.

RUBBERRubber prices traded positive note during the week ended on 22nd February 2019 and hit the nine months high over the optimism china US spat and deescalate their trade war. The expectation of prices Supported by the prices by rubber producing countries during the two-day meeting starting from Feb 21-22nd February 2018. The world top producers of natural rubber said in joint statement that they curb export up to 3 Lakh tons which showed a positive impact and help to boost the rubber prices. Rubber inventories at SHFE warehouses increased by 855 tons to 437876 tons during the last day of the week. However, on warrant stocks have witnessed a loss of 10 tons to 417630 tons. VietNam rubber export in January 2019 was around 1,75,000 tons, up by 28.9% YoY due to lower production and increased demand. As per the China customs data from January to December 2018, China imported a total of 1.23 million tons of synthetic rubber, a 10% decrease compared with the same period of last year; a total of 153,000 tons of synthetic rubber was exported, an increase of 9% compared with the same period last year.


CRUDE OIL

COMMODITIES

TREND SHEET

Commodities 15-Feb 22-Feb % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 33384 33517 0.4% 34031.00 -1.51% 29268.00 14.52%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 39962 40268 0.8% 41698.00 -3.43% 34981.00 15.11%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3951 4085 3.4% 5669.00 -27.94% 2993.00 36.49%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 186.60 192.30 3.1% 358.70 -46.39% 165.60 16.12%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 441.80 462.35 4.7% 493.25 -6.26% 397.40 16.34%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 147.65 145.90 -1.2% 171.80 -15.08% 133.15 9.58%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 190.45 194.50 2.1% 231.70 -16.06% 163.80 18.74%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 881.00 917.80 4.2% 1095.20 -16.20% 735.00 24.87%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 131.15 134.40 2.5% 178.85 -24.85% 124.75 7.74%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3726 3730 0.1% 3915.00 -4.73% 3149.00 18.45%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 776.00 766.95 -1.2% 796.35 -3.69% 713.60 7.48%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3843 3881 1.0% 4262.00 -8.94% 3727.00 4.13%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 559.70 560.70 0.2% 673.00 -16.69% 483.40 15.99%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5352 5252 -1.9% 6300.00 -16.63% 3831.00 37.09%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6306 6200 -1.7% 7702.00 -19.50% 5978.00 3.71%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 15560 15410 -1.0% 21000.00 -26.62% 14010.00 9.99%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 6214 6235 0.3% 6892.00 -9.53% 4186.00 48.95%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 1620.00 1471.30 -9.2% 1660.00 -11.37% 818.50 79.76%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2102 1955 -7.0% 2162.00 -9.57% 1640.00 19.21%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4220.50 4214.50 -0.1% 4869.50 -13.45% 3494.50 20.60%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 8416 8369 -0.6% 10510.00 -20.37% 7200.00 16.24%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 20130 20180 0.2% 24280.00 -16.89% 19850.00 1.66%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 2001.00 1983.50 -0.9% 2078.00 -4.55% 1166.00 70.11%

NCDEX Kapas (Rs/20 kg) 868 868 0.0% 938.50 -7.51% 854.00 1.64%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1612.40 1612.70 0.0% 1846.10 -12.64% 1106.00 45.81%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

CMP Weekly EMA RSI Direction

NYMEX $ 57.50/Barrel 8 $ 54.6071 UP

MCX Rs 4100/Barrel 13 $ 54.00

NICKEL

ZINC

Exchange Entry Target SL

NYMEX April $ 56.60-56.60 $ 59.50 $ 54.50

MCX MArch Rs 4030-4040 Rs 4250 Rs 3800


LME $ 13060/Mt 8 $ 1220071 UP

MCX Rs 925/Kg 13 $ 12100


LME 3M $ 12800-12900 $ 13800 $ 12200

MCX Feb Rs 905-910 Rs 980 Rs 860


LME $ 2700/Mt 8 $ 267358 UP

MCX Rs 193.30/Kg 13 $ 2675


LME 3M $ 2700-2690 $ 2795 $ 2640

MCX Feb Rs 192.50-193 Rs 200 Rs 188


COMMODITIES

NEWS DIGEST

• US crude oil stockpiles rose for a fifth straight week to the highest in more than a year, as production hit a record high and seasonal maintenance kept refining rates low last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. Crude inventories rose 3.7 million barrels in the week to 454.5 million barrels, the highest since October 2017. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast an increase of 3.1 million barrels.

• According to the first estimate of rabi production in 2018-19, National Bulk Handling Corporation (NBHC), rabi cereals production is expected to decline by 9.91%, while chana/gram is the most affected pulse seeing 9.92% fall in acreage. “As per our study, the total rabi cereals production for the year 2018-19 is expected to be lower by 9.91% to 115.49 mn MT and wheat is expected to show a decline in area by 2.54% to 29.66 mn Ha and production by 4.99% to 94.72 Million MT owing to scanty and inequitable distribution of rainfall in major growing areas,” an NBHC release said.

• The trade war between Washington and Beijing has had a major impact on the US agricultural space over the past two years, with the latest US Department of Agriculture figures shining a light on the difficulties faced by farmers during the dispute. Robert Johansson, the chief economist of the USDA, on Thursday said close to 25 mn metric tons, or about 27.5 mn tons, of US soybeans would go unsold in 2019 as a direct consequence of the trade war. US soybean exports to China fell by 13.5 mn metric tons year-over-year in the 2019 crop year, Johansson said. US soybean supplies have increased dramatically in the past two years amid the trade war. Johansson forecast that unsold soybean stocks would more than double to 24.8 million metric tons in 2019.

• The natural gas market is emerging from winter relatively unscathed despite potentially disruptive Chinese tariffs on US gas. But the ongoing trade dispute is still putting a chill on cooperation between the two energy powerhouses and threatens to sideline billions in investment.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• Gold was steady on Friday but still on track for a second weekly gain as sluggish US economic data stoked worries about a global slowdown and investors awaited signals on US-China trade talks. Spot gold was up 0.72% at $1,332.31 per ounce by 12:04 p.m. ET. US gold futures were up 0.53% at $1,334.90 per ounce.

• The rupee inched up 2 paise to 71.22 against the dollar in early trade on Friday amid a dip in crude oil prices and fresh foreign fund inflows. At the forex market, the local unit opened almost flat at 71.23 and stayed in a narrow range. The rupee had skidded by 13 paise to close at 71.24 against the dollar on Thursday. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought equities worth Rs. 55 crore on Thursday, while domestic institutional investors bought shares to the tune of Rs. 202 crore, provisional data showed.

• Oil prices touched more than three-month highs on Friday, supported by rising hopes that the United States and China would soon reach a deal to end their trade war, but new record US oil production limited gains. International Brent crude futures were up 10 cents at $67.17 per barrel around 12:25 p.m. ET (1725 GMT), striking a fresh high of $67.73 going back to mid-November. Brent was on track for a weekly gain of about 1.4%.

• The prices of the turmeric were decreased on Thursday. Due to an increase in the arrival of new turmeric, the price of the new finger turmeric was decreased. Similarly, due to the arrival of poor quality old turmeric, the prices of both varieties was also decreased. On Thursday 4,200 bags including 1,400 bags of new turmeric arrived for sale. On average 60% arrived old turmeric stocks were sold. But all the new turmeric were sold, said RKV Ravishankar, President, Erode Turmeric Merchants Association.

• Copper prices slipped from seven-month highs on Thursday as the dollar firmed and investors cashed in gains from a rally in the previous session fuelled by falling inventories. The dollar found strength in minutes from a US Federal Reserve meeting that raised expectations of a possible US interest rate increase this year. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ended 0.4% lower at $6,379 a ton, having hit its highest since July 10 at $6,426.50 in the previous session.

MCX CRUDE MCX NATURAL GAS

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

0

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8-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb

$/M

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tu

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100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

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Open Interest Volume Price (INR/MMBTU)

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50000

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Volume Open Interest Price (INR/Bbl)


COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 15-Feb 22-Feb % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1855.50 1906.50 2.75%

Copper LME 3M 6224.00 6374.00 2.41%

Lead LME 3M 2077.00 2070.00 -0.34%

Nickel LME 3M 12415.00 12845.00 3.46%

Zinc LME 3M 2664.00 2676.00 0.45%

Gold CME FEB 1318.80 1321.20 0.18%

Silver CME MAR 15.76 15.77 0.10%

WTI Crude oil CME FEB 55.79 56.84 1.88%

Natural Gas CME FEB 2.63 2.71 2.77%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 15-Feb 22-Feb % change

Soybean CBOT JAN 934.75 937.25 0.27%

Soy oil CBOT JAN 27.88 27.88 0.00%

CPO BMD MAR 2253.00 2252.00 -0.04%

Cotton ICE MAR 70.31 72.17 2.65%

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 143175 133825 -9350 -6.53%

Zinc 93450 81100 -12350 -13.22%

Aluminium 1266600 1239800 -26800 -2.12%

Lead 67300 76825 9525 14.15%

Nickel 200562 199974 -588 -0.29%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 142727 207118 64391 45.11%

Zinc 46931 86447 39516 84.20%

Aluminium 704761 736675 31914 4.53%

*Until Wednesday

WEEKLY STOCK POSITION IN LME (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 72417 65119 -7298 -10.08%

-9.18%

-6.99%

-1.87%

-1.68%

-1.19%

-1.17%

-0.96%

-0.87%

-0.56%

-0.14%

0.02%

0.11%

0.18%

0.25%

0.34%

0.40%

0.66%

0.77%

0.99%

2.13%

2.48%

3.05%

3.39%

4.18%

4.65%

-10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

Cardamom

Wheat

Castor Seed

Turmeric

Lead

Soy Oil

Jeera

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Guar Gum

Guar Seed

Mentha Oil

Soybean

CPO

Cotton

Dhaniya

Gold

Barley

Silver

RM Seed

Zinc

Aluminum

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

Nickel

Copper

CHINA ALUMINA OUTPUT (IN MILLION TONS)

2017 2018 Change

Shangdong Province 22.13 22.7 2.50%

Shanxi Province 18.34 20 8.30%

Henan Province 10.93 10.77 -1.50%

Guangxi Province 8.17 7.74 -5.50%

Guizhou Province 4.44 4.33 -2.60%

China (Total) 66.57 68.42 2.70%

PRIMARY ALUMINIUM MARKET (IN MILLION TONS)

Particulars Jan-Dec 2017 Jan-Dec 2018 Change

Aluminium Production 58.63 59.67 1.8%

Aluminium Consumption 59.84 60.52 1.1%

Balance -1.21 -0.86

China production 33.25 33.59 1.0%

China net exports (unwrought) 0.37 0.36 -0.5%

China net exports (Semis) 3.85 4.68 21.7%

Total reported stocks 2.35 2.40 2.5%

COPPER MARKET (IN MILLION TONS)

Particulars Jan-Dec 2017 Jan-Dec 2018 Change

Copper mine production 20.28 20.71 2.1%

Refined Copper Production 23.40 23.66 1.1%

Refined Copper Consumption 23.26 23.17 -0.4%

Balance 0.14 0.50

China apparent consumption 11.75 12.48 6.3%

EU demand 3.33 3.41 2.4%

Source: WBMS

Source: WBMS

METAL MARKET REVIEW


USD/INR

USDINR is currency trading at 71.14. During the week, it made a high of 71.51 and low of 70.91. The RSI is at 53.39. Moving average of 32 is at 70.51 and 55 is at 69.16. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 71.00-70.90 for a target price of 72.00 with a stop loss of 70.60.

EUR/INR

EURINR is currency trading at 80.66. During the week, it made a high of 80.99 and low of 80.47. The RSI is trading at 48.25. Moving average of 32 is at 80.95 and 55 is at 80.88. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 80.40-80.50 for a target price of 81.30 with a stop loss of 80.00.

GBP/INR

GBPINR is currency trading at 92.47. During the week, it made a high of 93.22 and low of 91.99. The RSI is trading at 53.45. Moving average of 32 is at 91.50 and 55 is at 91.42. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 92.00-92.10 for a target price of 93.40 with a stop loss of 91.50.

JPY/INR

JPYINR is currency trading at 64.14. During the week, it made a high of 64.70 and low of 64.01. The RSI is at 52.66. Moving average of 32 is at 63.58 and 55 is at 62.74. The trend is looking bearish for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 64.20-64.30 for a target price of 63.60 with a stop loss of 64.80.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

Although recovered from recent lows, dollar index has added limited gains as an unexpected fall in core capital goods orders and weak existing home sales has increased the expectations of no rate hike by FED in the near future. Decoding the FOMC meeting minutes show that FED has taken a complete U-Turn on rates. FED told markets that it would be patient when considering future rate hikes in contrast with its previous statements that had been calling for further rate hikes in 2019. The ECB meeting minutes showed that policymakers took a more cautious view of the Eurozone economy given the persistently soft economic data. But the surprise was in French business activity which rose more than expected as manufacturing growth helped offset the slack in services despite anti-government protests. The rally in oil prices has halted at $67.00 Brent as the US reported its crude output hit a record 12 mn barrels per day, undermining the efforts of OPEC to withhold supply. According to RBI MPC minutes, there is enough possible room for RBI to cut rates by another 50 bps. Inflation excluding food and fuel remains elevated and persistent and the inflation rates excepting food and fuel are also predicted to fall from its current level of about 5.9% in Q3 FY19 to about 5.1% in Q3 FY20.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• German Manufacturing PMI continued to drop and came in at 47.6 for February against the Reuters expectations at 50.

• Japan’s annual core consumer inflation accelerated slightly in January but remained distant from the central bank’s 2% target, reinforcing market expectations the country is nowhere near an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.

• The US economy is facing significant economic headwinds, San Francisco Fed President Daly said, but its near-record-long expansion does not appear to be hitting a dead end.

• Japan’s exports posted their biggest decline in more than two years as China-bound shipments tumbled, fuelling concerns about slowing global demand.

• British Prime Minister Theresa May makes another trip to Brussels, hoping European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker may prove more yielding than of late to salvage her Brexit deal.

• A no-deal Brexit would be a “mutual calamity” for Britain and the European Union that would deliver a sharp blow to the British economy, Finance Minister Philip Hammond said yesterday.

• India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $398.27 billion as of 15th February, compared with $398.12 billion a week earlier, the Reserve Bank of India said on Friday.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 71.32 71.51 70.91 71.14

EURINR 80.56 80.99 80.47 80.63

GBPINR 92.01 93.22 91.99 92.53

JPYINR 64.55 64.70 64.01 64.14


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Local Start Date Local Time Country Relevance Indicator Name Period Reuters Poll Unit Prior

25 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low National Activity Index Jan Index 0.27

25 Feb 2019 20:30 United States Medium Wholesale Invt(y), R MM Dec 0.2% Percent

25 Feb 2019 20:30 United States Low Wholesale Sales MM Dec Percent -0.6%

25 Feb 2019 21:00 United States Low Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Feb Index 1.00

26 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Medium Building Permits: Number Dec 1.293M Number of 1.322M

26 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low Build Permits: Change MM Dec Percent 4.5%

26 Feb 2019 19:00 United States High Housing Starts Number Dec 1.255M Number of 1.256M

26 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low House Starts MM: Change Dec Percent 3.2%

26 Feb 2019 19:25 United States Low Redbook MM 23 Feb, w/e Percent -1.5%

26 Feb 2019 19:25 United States Low Redbook YY 23 Feb, w/e Percent 5.4%

26 Feb 2019 19:30 United States Low Monthly Home Price MM Dec Percent 0.4%

26 Feb 2019 19:30 United States Low Monthly Home Price YY Dec Percent 5.8%

26 Feb 2019 19:30 United States Low Monthly Home Price Index Dec Index 269.2

26 Feb 2019 19:30 United States Medium CaseShiller 20 MM SA Dec Percent 0.3%

26 Feb 2019 19:30 United States Low CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Dec Percent -0.1%

26 Feb 2019 19:30 United States Medium CaseShiller 20 YY Dec 4.5% Percent 4.7%

26 Feb 2019 20:30 United States High Consumer Confidence Feb 125.0 Index 120.2

27 Feb 2019 17:30 United States Low MBA Mortgage Applications 22 Feb, w/e Percent 3.6%

27 Feb 2019 17:30 United States Low Mortgage Market Index 22 Feb, w/e Index 365.3

27 Feb 2019 17:30 United States Low MBA Purchase Index 22 Feb, w/e Index 232.7

27 Feb 2019 17:30 United States Low Mortgage Refinance Index 22 Feb, w/e Index 1,084.4

27 Feb 2019 17:30 United States Low MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 22 Feb, w/e Percent 4.66%

27 Feb 2019 19:00 United States High Durable Goods Jan 0.2% Percent

27 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Medium Durables Ex-Transport Jan Percent

27 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Medium Building Permits: Number Jan Number of

27 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low Build Permits: Change MM Jan Percent

27 Feb 2019 19:00 United States High Housing Starts Number Jan Number of

27 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low House Starts MM: Change Jan Percent

27 Feb 2019 20:30 United States Low Durables Ex-Def, R MM Dec Percent 1.8%

27 Feb 2019 20:30 United States Low Durable Goods, R MM Dec Percent 1.2%

27 Feb 2019 20:30 United States High Factory Orders MM Dec 0.9% Percent -0.6%

27 Feb 2019 20:30 United States Low Durables Ex-Transpt R MM Dec Percent 0.1%

27 Feb 2019 20:30 United States Low Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Dec Percent -0.7%

27 Feb 2019 20:30 United States Low Factory Ex-Transp MM Dec Percent -1.3%

27 Feb 2019 20:30 United States Low Pending Homes Index Jan Index 99.0

27 Feb 2019 20:30 United States Medium Pending Sales Change MM Jan -0.4% Percent -2.2%

28 Feb 2019 06:30 China (Mainland) Low NBS Non-Mfg PMI Feb Index (diffusion) 54.7

28 Feb 2019 06:30 China (Mainland) High NBS Manufacturing PMI Feb 49.5 Index (diffusion) 49.5

28 Feb 2019 15:30 India Low Fed Fiscal Deficit, INR Jan INR 7,014.57B

28 Feb 2019 17:30 India Medium Fiscal Year GDP 17/18 2018 Percent 6.7%

28 Feb 2019 17:30 India High GDP Quarterly YY Q3 6.9% Percent 7.1%

28 Feb 2019 17:30 India Low Infrastructure Output YY Jan Percent 2.60%

28 Feb 2019 18:30 Russia Low Cbank Wkly Reserves 22 Feb, w/e USD 474.6B

28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low Corporate Profits Prelim Q4 Percent 3.5%

CURRENCY


28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States High GDP 2nd Estimate Q4 2.4% Percent

28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low GDP Sales Prelim Q4 Percent

28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low GDP Cons Spending Prelim Q4 Percent

28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Medium GDP Deflator Prelim Q4 Percent

28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Medium Core PCE Prices Prelim Q4 1.6% Percent

28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low PCE Prices Prelim Q4 Percent

28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States High Initial Jobless Claims 23 Feb, w/e 220k Person 216k

28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Low Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 23 Feb, w/e Person 235.75k

28 Feb 2019 19:00 United States Medium Continued Jobless Claims 16 Feb, w/e Person 1.725M

28 Feb 2019 20:15 United States Medium Chicago PMI Feb 58.2 Index 56.7

28 Feb 2019 21:30 United States Low KC Fed Manufacturing Feb Index 2

28 Feb 2019 21:30 United States Low KC Fed Composite Index Feb Index (diffusion) 5

1 Mar 2019 07:15 China (Mainland) Medium Caixin Mfg PMI Final Feb 48.5 Index (diffusion) 48.3

1 Mar 2019 10:30 India Medium Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Feb Index (diffusion) 53.9

1 Mar 2019 11:30 Russia Medium Markit Mfg PMI Feb Index (diffusion) 50.9

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States Medium Personal Income MM Jan 0.3% Percent

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States Medium Personal Consump Real MM Dec Percent 0.3%

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States High Consumption, Adjusted MM Dec 0.0% Percent 0.4%

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States Medium Core PCE Price Index MM Dec 0.1% Percent 0.1%

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States Low Core PCE Price Index YY Dec 1.9% Percent 1.9%

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States Low PCE Price Index MM Dec Percent 0.1%

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States Low PCE Price Index YY Dec Percent 1.8%

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States Medium Retail Sales Ex-Autos MM Jan 0.1% Percent -1.8%

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States High Retail Sales MM Jan 0.1% Percent -1.2%

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States Low Retail Ex Gas/Autos Jan Percent -1.4%

1 Mar 2019 19:00 United States Medium Retail Control Jan 0.6% Percent -1.7%

1 Mar 2019 20:15 United States Medium Markit Mfg PMI Final Feb Index (diffusion) 53.7

1 Mar 2019 20:30 United States High ISM Manufacturing PMI Feb 56.0 Index 56.6

1 Mar 2019 20:30 United States Medium ISM Mfg Prices Paid Feb Index 49.6

1 Mar 2019 20:30 United States Low ISM Manuf Employment Idx Feb Index 55.5

1 Mar 2019 20:30 United States Low ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Feb Index 58.2

1 Mar 2019 20:30 United States High U Mich Sentiment Final Feb 95.6 Index 95.5

1 Mar 2019 20:30 United States Low U Mich Conditions Final Feb Index 110.0

1 Mar 2019 20:30 United States Low U Mich Expectations Final Feb Index 86.2

1 Mar 2019 20:30 United States Low U Mich 1Yr Inf Final Feb Percent 2.5%

1 Mar 2019 20:30 United States Low U Mich 5-Yr Inf Final Feb Percent 2.3%

1 Mar 2019 United States Medium Personal Income MM Dec 0.4% Percent 0.2%

2 Mar 2019 02:00 United States Medium Total Vehicle Sales Feb 16.80M Number of 16.70M

CURRENCY


Activity at Central Bank of India, Agra

Activity at P&S Bank, Kalarhere

Activity at Union Bank Branch, Mount Abu

Activity at Central Bank of India

Activity at PSB, Ambala

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