rule the market - karvy onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue059.pdf• the...

ISSUE: 059

19TH OCTOBER, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

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It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

IIP for August Disappoints While Retail Inflation for September at Elevated LevelIndex of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of August 2019 fell to (-) 1.1% in comparison to same period previous year on YoY basis and against street expectation of 1.8% growth. The cumulative growth for the period of April-August 2019 over the same period previous year came in at 2.4% on YoY basis. However, IIP is a volatile number and 3 months moving average is a better gauge which stands at 1.7%.

Within IIP, manufacturing (which accounts for 77.6% of total output) fell by (-) 1.2%, mining (which accounts for 14.4%) grew by 0.1% and electricity (which accounts for 8%) de-grew by (-) 0.9% compared to same period last year on YoY basis. Thus, the decline in IIP should be attributed to weakness in manufacturing and electricity sector. The industry group ‘Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers’ has shown the highest negative growth of (-) 23.1%. On the other hand, the industry groups ‘Manufacture of basic metals’ has shown the highest positive growth of 11.8%.

The decline in IIP suggests to the fact that measures taken by the government were of supply side and there is dire need of boosting demand by enhancing disposable income of individuals.

As per use-based, primary goods increased 1.1%, capital goods declined by (-) 21%, intermediate goods accelerated by 7%, infrastructure and construction goods de-grew by (-) 4.5%. The Consumer Durable goods have recorded decline of (-) 9.1% whereas consumer non-durable goods have increased by 4.1% in August 2019 over same period last year. The sharp decline in capital goods reflects upon weakness in investment activities.

Thus, IIP data suggests to overall slowdown in production, consumption and investment, the government and the central bank is expected to take co-ordinated fiscal and monetary measures to give big push to the economy.

Consumer Price Index Edged UpConsumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of September has come at 3.99% which is above market expectation of 3.7% and closer to RBI’s inflation target rate. The surge in retail inflation has been contributed by sharper rise in rural inflation to 3.22% from previous month reading of 2.2% and urban inflation rose to 8.76% as against 4.5% in last month.

Food prices witnessed sharp increase to 5.11% from year earlier. Within food items, Food & Beverages index rose to 4.7% wherein upward pressure came from rise in Meat & Fish prices to 10.29%, Vegetables at 15.4%, Pulses & Products at 8.4% and Non-Alcoholic Beverage at 3.21%.

The sharp rise in CPI inflation in September has been driven by food items which are likely to prove as temporary phenomena.

Among non-food inflation, Pan, Tobacco and Intoxicants surged to 4.59%, Households inflation rose to 4.75%, Clothing & Footwear inched up to 0.96% and miscellaneous climbed to 4.45% whereas Fuel & Light inflation fell to( –) 2.18%.

Core inflation excluding food and energy experienced dip in prices at 4.19% against 4.25% in prior month pointing to weakness in demand.

Although, the headline number is close to RBI’s inflation target of 4% within the band of +/-2%, it is still within the comfort zone of the RBI. We believe that elevated CPI number is a good sign of revival in consumption goods demand. We also believe that this rise in CPI may not deter RBI from pursuing accommodative stance, given the growth concerns.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-15

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Arun Kumar Mantri

Syed Hasan Jafar

M V Narasinga Rao

Osho Krishan

Amit Samar

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

R Rajashekar

Chetan K Waghray

Akshaya Ravindra Shinde

Konpal Pali

Mahesh Keshavrav Bendre

Rahul K Sharma

Sayali Shrikant Gadkari

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Arpit Chandna

Bharat Sunnam

Ramesh Chenchala

Ravi Pandey

Kushal Asthana

Amit Kumar

Vinod. J

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- DR. RAVI SINGHHead-Technical & Derivatives Research

EQUITY

Economy• The IMF on Wednesday urged the largest economies of the world including India to be prepared

to engage in a coordinated policy action, a day after it downgraded the 2019 global growth rate to 3% - the slowest pace since the 2008 global financial crisis.

• India’s exports contracted 6.57% in September as shipments of petroleum, engineering, gems & jewellery and chemicals fell. Imports declined 13.85% to a three-year low of $36.89 Bn indicating weak domestic demand in a slowing economy.

• The International Monetary Fund cut its estimate for India’s growth this year to 6.1% from 7% projected in July, calling on the country to use monetary policy and broad-based structural reforms to address cyclical weakness and strengthen confidence.

Agriculture• The government has asked dal millers to import pulses by October 31 to ensure availability and

keep a check on the domestic prices but the industry has sought time until the end of the year saying high global prices have delayed signing of contracts.

• Netherlands can contribute to connect the production capacity of India to consumers worldwide by excellent logistics and cold chain according to Dutch Vice Minister of Agriculture Marjolijn Sonnema.

• India’s largest listed hybrid seeds firm, Kaveri Seeds (KSL) is looking to adopt genetic male sterility (GMS) technology for hybrid cotton seed production aimed at reducing the pressure on profit margins with the state governments attempting to regulate hybrid cotton seed prices.

Banking & Finance• More than 100 urban co-operative banks (UCBs) having deposits with the fraud-hit Punjab

& Maharashtra Co-op bank (PMCB) should be given adequate time — depending on their profitability for the past three years — to make provisions according to Sahakar Bharati, an NGO in co-operative field.

• Securitization of assets by non-banking finance companies and mortgage lenders surged as much as 48% in the first half of the fiscal year as they raised funds selling assets when credit markets turned risk averse.

• Leading the India Inc in deleveraging through aggressive monetization of assets, Essar Group paid off Rs. 1.4 lakh crore debt and residual 10-15% will be cleared in the next two quarters according to Essar Capital Director Prashant Ruia.

Auto • Bajaj Auto returned to the scooter market with an electric avatar of the iconic Chetak after

over a decade. The vehicle will go on sale in Pune and Bangalore early next year. Bajaj will gauge customer response and preparedness of the electric vehicle ecosystem before expanding operations to other locations.

• MG Motor India on Wednesday said it has partnered with eChargeBays, a Delhi-based start-up, for setting up home charging infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs).

• The Transport Ministry has issued draft guidelines for setting up authorized vehicle scrapping facilities, a move that will help legalize the industry in India.

Power • India is considering building 30 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity along a desert on its

western border known for its sunny, windy and arid expanse.

• In a breather to ailing power distribution companies (discoms) in Andhra Pradesh, the Vijayawada High Court on Tuesday stayed orders of the Union Power Ministry directing them to provide letters of credit to wind and solar energy developers against payments.

• Engineering firm Larsen & Toubro (L&T) on Monday said it has operationalized two thermal power units of 660 MW each at state-run NTPC’s Khargone plant in Madhya Pradesh and Tanda project in Uttar Pradesh.

Oil & Gas• Billionaire Gautam Adani-run Adani Group has forged a partnership with UAE’s oil firm Adnoc,

German chemical giant BASF and Austria’s Borealis to study the feasibility of setting up a USD 4 Bn chemical complex at Mundra in Gujarat by 2024.

• The government is likely to provide Rs. 5,500 crore viability gap funding (VGF) to North-East gas grid.

• India’s fuel demand slipped to its lowest in over two years in September after a fall in diesel and industrial fuel consumption negated the rise in petrol and LPG consumption.

• US-based Tellurian Inc which signed an initial agreement to sell gas to Petronet LNG in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi will deliver liquefied natural gas (LNG) to India at a price of $6 per unit, a top executive and member of its founding family said, signaling a much lower price than the ceiling for output from difficult fields in India.

Steel• The National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) directed the Enforcement Directorate

(ED) to release assets of Bhushan Power and Steel Ltd. (BPSL) attached as part of investigations into alleged loan fraud and money laundering by the company and erstwhile promoter Sanjay Singhal. JSW Steel, which is looking to acquire the company in bankruptcy proceedings had sought protection from the ongoing probes.

Railways• Gautam Adani-led Adani Enterprises has set up a subsidiary to focus on metro rail projects, the

company informed bourses on Thursday.

• Investors may be rejoicing Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation’s blockbuster listing, but the railways is not happy with the pricing of the public sector e-commerce company’s valuation.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• The World Steel Association has revised its 2019 Short-Range Outlook (SRO) for steel demand higher on Monday on the back of strong Chinese demand. The Brussels based World Steel provided an updated SRO at its General Assembly in Monterrey, Mexico and forecast global steel demand to grow by 3.9% to 1.775 billion tonnes compared to an earlier forecast of 1.3% or 1.735 billion tonnes in April.

• China’s economy grew at the slowest rate in 27 years in the third quarter, official figures showed on Friday, as the country grapples with a protracted trade war with the US and slowing domestic demand.

• The undying popularity of sport-utility vehicles has made them the second-biggest contributor to the growth of global CO2 emissions in recent years, just behind the power sector, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.

• Chinese tech giant Huawei said on Wednesday that its revenue for the first nine months of the year grew by almost a quarter despite a US campaign to isolate the company globally.

TRENDSHEETSYMBOL CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 39298.38 38810 39054 39452 39605 Up

NIFTY 11661.85 11502 11582 11713 11765 Up

NIFTYBANK 29120.25 28693 28906 29292 29463 Up

YESBANK 51.25 34 42 56 61 Up

RELIANCE 1416.00 1321 1369 1446 1475 Up

INFY 767.90 738 753 790 812 Down

MARUTI 7351.25 6412 6882 7635 7920 Up

SBIN 269.10 247 258 276 282 Down

TATAMOTORS 136.60 113 125 146 156 Up

ZEEL 249.80 213 232 271 292 Down

BAJFINANCE 4136.60 3704 3920 4276 4416 Up

AXISBANK 711.00 658 684 727 742 Up

ICICIBANK 437.10 418 428 445 453 Up

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT

EX-DATE/RESULT DATE

Axis Bank Ltd. Quarterly Results 21 Oct 2019

Tata Elxsi Ltd. Quarterly Results 21 Oct 2019

Zensar Technologies Ltd. Quarterly Results 21 Oct 2019

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Comp Ltd Quarterly Results 22 Oct 2019

Jyothy Laboratories Ltd. Quarterly Results 22 Oct 2019

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. Quarterly Results 22 Oct 2019

HCL Technologies Ltd. Quarterly Results 23 Oct 2019

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Quarterly Results 23 Oct 2019

NIIT Technologies Ltd. Quarterly Results 23 Oct 2019

Westlife Development Ltd. Quarterly Results 24 Oct 2019

PNB Housing Finance Ltd. Quarterly Results 24 Oct 2019

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. Quarterly Results 24 Oct 2019

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. Interim Dividend - Rs. - 11.0 23 Oct 2019

Infosys Ltd. Interim Dividend - Rs. - 8.0 23 Oct 2019

Larsen & Toubro Infotech Ltd. Interim Dividend - Rs. - 12.50 24 Oct 2019

MindTree Ltd. Interim Dividend - Rs. - 3.0 24 Oct 2019

KSTREET - 19TH OCTOBER, 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

0.000

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Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap

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11-10-19 14-10-19 15-10-19 16-10-19 17-10-19

FII/FPI DII


RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

REVENUE 182,099 193,119 216,747

EBITDA 14,333 15,733 18,957

EBITDA(%) 7.9 8.1 8.7

PAT 6,701 7,931 10,296

EPS(Rs.) 14.1 16.7 21.7

RoE (%) 21.5 21.9 24.1

CorePE (x) 29.7 25.1 19.3

BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

TVS Motor Company CMP Rs.456

Target Price Rs.514Upside 12.7%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 594/340

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 217 /294

EPS (Rs.) 21.7

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 19.3

Dividend Yield (%) -

Stock Exchange BSE

EQUITY

Investment Rationale

• Q2FY20 Result Highlight: During Q2FY20, TVS net sales declined by 12.9% YoY to Rs. 43.5 Bn, driven by 18.5% volume decline and a 6.9% increase in average realizations. EBITDA margin expanded by 21 bps YoY to 8.8%. Improvement in EBITDA margin was primarily on account of 240 bps increase in gross margins in Q2FY20. PAT de-grew by 15.3% to Rs. 1.8 Bn.

• Stable Business and improved Profitability Outlook: TVS Management expects overall Indian 2W industry to witness stability in demand during H2FY20 vs. H1FY20 and need another 3-4 quarters for full demand recovery. The Management is confident of TVS’ outperformance over the industry growth supported by its new and better product line. We believe its four brands (Jupiter, Ntorq, Apache and Radeon) continue to perform exceedingly well. Their contribution to its domestic volumes has crossed 50% to its overall sales. As the Company enjoys pricing power in these brands, higher contribution from them augurs well for the overall profitability. During the quarter, TVS benefitted on account of softening of its key raw material prices. Management remained optimistic about the margin expansion going forward as the company has taken price hikes to offset the rise in prices on account of ABS/CBS features and also initiated cost cutting measures.

Valuation

TVS has well established four marquee brands (Jupiter, Ntorq, Apache and Radeon) which we believe will help TVS to outperform the industry growth in its domestic and its international business. We expect TVS to report 24% EPS CAGR over FY19-21E. We rate the stock as HOLD with a price target of Rs. 514 (PER of 22xFY21E earnings + Rs 37 for TVS Credit Services Ltd- 2x FY19 P/B). We have increased our target PER from 20x to 22 (~20% discount to 7 year 12M fwd average PE) to factor in expected volume improvement and margin expansion going forward.


57.39%

13.20%

19.02%

10.39%

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Sensex TVS Motors

BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories CMP Rs.2722

Target Price Rs.3259Upside 19.7%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 5.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 2965/2065

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 453/6370

EPS (Rs.) 155.2

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 17.5

Dividend Yield (%) -

Stock Exchange NSE

EQUITY

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

Investment Rationale

• The company has taken gradual shift and is a diversified pharma company with major revenues coming from US and India + Emerging Markets. We are enthused by company’s performance and maintain BUY on the stock.

• The India piece is expected to grow in double digits with increasing focus on brand introductions and increasing productivity. The EM piece will show renewed traction with concentrated efforts on increasing market share in chosen therapy areas including expansion of biosimilars and oncology portfolio, focus on scaling up in major markets, which include Russia, China, Brazil, South Africa and Ukraine. As the branded piece is more profitable, higher growth and higher contribution will yield better margins for the company.

• The company has launched 15-16 products YTD of which Daptomycin, Vitamin K, Testosterone, re-launch of Isotret and Fosaprepitant are important products which could generate revenues in excess of USD 10-15 Mn. Propofol injection is another important product but scale up would take time for this product. The Duvada plant had a pre- approval inspection for a new manufacturing line; however, the company received 8 observations for the Duvada plant. New approvals are unlikely to come from this facility. The company would continue to show decent revenue traction going ahead.

• The Company has a strong cash & cash equivalents of Rs. 28.43 Bn as of June 2019 and has low debt on its books. Dr Reddy’s is scouting for opportunities in the branded space with preference for India and the EM space; it is also open to the option to acquire in US or any other region.

Valuation

We upgrade our revenue estimates for FY20E/FY21E by 1.2% / 3.5% mainly due to upgrade in US business. We marginally decline our EDBITA margins for both the years. We however upgrade our EPS estimates for FY20E/FY21E by 0.3 %/3.5% to Rs. 146/Rs. 155.2 for FY 20E/FY21E. The stock is currently quoting at reasonable valuations of 19.1x FY20E and 17.9x FY 21E. We upgrade our price target to Rs. 3259 based on 21x FY 21E. We maintain BUY rating on the stock.

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

REVENUE 153,851 170,587 198,936

EBITDA 33,288 41,457 44,581

EBITDA(%) 21.6 24.3 22.4

PAT 18,795 24,243 25,763

EPS (Rs.) 113.2 146.0 155.2

RoE (%) 14.1 16.1 15.0

PE (x) 24.0 18.6 17.5


26.76%

30.73%13.77%

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EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

HDFC Bank Ltd

HDFC has been one of our preferred pick in the NBFC space and has outperformed majority of its peers. The stock has been making higher highs and higher lows on the weekly charts and is currently placed above the major long term moving averages on the daily charts. In the recent weeks, the stock took support around the crucial levels of 1940-1960 where three previous swing lows were placed. The counter has also retested the previous breakout levels of 1950 levels on the weekly charts and made smart pullback indicating fresh leg of rally to start from current levels towards all time highs. Analyzing the recent trend on the weekly charts, in the last three weeks, the stock has witnessed huge volumes indicating strong hands have started accumulating the counter at current levels. On the Bollinger band (20, 2), the stock also took support on the lower band and is all set to move towards the upper band which is placed around 2300 plus levels. At current juncture, we expect the counter to start fresh leg of rally and may enter in to an uncharted territory in long term perspective. The overall chart structure of the counter looks bullish and any breach above the psychological mark of 2150 levels may trigger fresh round of buying which may take the stock towards 2300-2400 levels. Medium to long term investors may start accumulating the stock around 2070-2080 levels for the targets of 2310-2400 levels keeping strict stop loss at 1940 levels.

Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd

M&M has seen inline momentum with Nifty Auto last week and closed the week with a positive return of 5.93% whereas Nifty Auto closed the week with a gain of 7.67%. The stock has seen sharp cut from the high of around 675 levels. This has dragged the stock to the low of 502 levels. Thereafter, the stock has bounced well with supportive volume formation on daily chats. The recent price action in the stock has formed rounding bottom formation on daily chart. The projected target for the above said pattern is placed at 685-695 levels for medium term. The stock comes under investors and trader friendly category. The historical price actions in the stock suggest that any meaningful dip in the stock may attract market participants. This helps stock to resume its up move. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northward given positive crossover with signal line and trading comfortable above signal line. The parabolic SAR is trading below its price action on daily charts that reflects uptrend in the stock to remain intact in near term. The recent development in the stock suggests that resumption of uptrend from the low of 505 levels. Hence, we suggest buy in the stock around 590 levels for the target of 685 levels and above that at 695 levels with a stop loss placed below 520 levels and any meaningful dip towards 550 levels can be used for averaging stock for said target.

STOCK HDFC

CMP 2094.45

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 2070-2080

AVERAGE 2010

STOP LOSS 1940

TARGET 1 2310

TARGET 2 2400

TIME FRAME 5-6 MONTHS

STOCK M&M

CMP 593.30

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 590

AVERAGE 550

STOP LOSS 520

TARGET 1 685

TARGET 2 695

TIME FRAME 4-6 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Initiation 85.5

Stop Loss 88.5

Target 80

Lot Size 7000

Margin 122000

21-DEMA 86

Open Interest Shares 44604000

Change in OI -357000

Cost of Carry (%) 8.36

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY BANK (29120.25) outperformed the Nifty with a gain of 3.84% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty gained by 3.06%. During the last two weeks, the index moved with a renewed buying and bounced off the 27568 levels. Technically, the index has given a breakout of the consolidation range of 27568 to 28857 levels. This breakout witnessed beyond the range is likely to trigger a bullish rally in the index by around 1300 points. The current state of bullishness in the index may continue to remain until the 28857 levels are holding strong. Two bank unions threaten to sit on a day-long bank strike against the merger of public sector banks, the State Bank of India expects the impact to be minimal while the Bank of Baroda has warned customers that its operations could be paralysed. The All India Bank Employees’ Association and Bank Employees Federation of India have served a notice to the Indian Banks’ Association informing them of the bank strike from 6 am on October 22 to 6 am on October 23. Yes Bank has seen the addition of 7.56 lakh new retail buyers over the past year, with the September quarter alone adding more than a third to the total, in an apparent vote of confidence by retail investors in the new management’s ability to raise funds and quickly engineer a turnaround. On the stock front, YESBANK, RBLBANK and INDUSINDBK closed in green with gains of 29.42%, 9.89% and 9.43% respectively during the week while BANKBARODA lost by 1.43% respectively. As indicated by the derivatives data, Bank Nifty may face resistance at 29500 followed by 30000 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 28500 followed by 28000 levels.

NIFTY AUTO (7964.75) has outperformed the Nifty 50 index on week to week basis and ended the week with positive gains over 7%. The index is in the cycle of higher highs and higher lows on daily chart and has witnessed resistance breakout from the previous swing closing of 7800 levels suggesting strength in the counter. The surge in the price was being backed by increase in average traded volumes indicating new participants accumulating the index. On weekly chart, the index has made a strong bullish candle indicating optimism in the overall counter ahead of festive season. On charts, the immediate support for the index is pegged around 7800 levels which is the recent breakout levels; sustaining above which the index may witness another round of rally while on the contrary, the resistance is pegged around 8050-8100 levels which is also its 200 DEMA, followed by 8200 zone which is the next crucial resistance levels for the index. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed sharp rally from the mean of the Bollinger (20, 2) and is currently settled near the upper band, at the same time the band is getting expanded indicating a higher probability of index to continue the movement in near future, this is further being supported by the 14 period RSI which is placed around 42-55 levels post a positive crossover on weekly chart suggesting further upside room in the counter. Going forward for the coming week, it is advisable to trade cautiously in the counter as stock specific action could be seen ahead of the earning season. Even it is advisable to always hedge the position and not to carry heavy leveraged positions.

NIFTY IT (15,410.10) has ended the week with a positive of over 0.56%, underperforming the benchmark index Nifty, which closed with gain of around 3.16%. The index is consolidating in the range of 15000-15450 levels from last 3 weeks. The index is facing the resistance at 15450 levels which is 200-EMA moving average on daily charts. The stocks which have outperformed the NIFTY IT index during the week were TATAELXSI, TCS, WIPRO, JUSTDIAL, NIITTECH, HEXAWARE, TECHM, MINDTREE and HCLTECH which gained 11.66%, 4.42%, 3.90%, 2.71%, 2.09%, 1.99%, 1.79%, 1.53% and 1.43% respectively and INFY underperformed the index. The breadth of the Nifty IT index was positive as 9 out of 10 stocks in the index ended on a positive note while 1 stock ended on a negative note. Technically, the index is placed well below its short and medium term moving average on daily chart indicating weakness in the index. On the Momentum oscillator front, the 14-period RSI is placed above its 9-period signal line on the daily chart reflecting the index may trade with positive bias in the coming trading sessions. Going ahead, the support for Nifty IT index is pegged around 15200 followed by 15000 levels. While on the higher side, the index may face resistance around 15450 levels where the 200-EMA moving average is placed on daily chart, once it crosses, it may rally towards 15700 levels.

NIFTY METAL (2456.00) has ended on a flat note with a gain of more than 0.50% for the truncated week and closed at 2456. It was the Friday’s strong positive move of more around 2% on the index that has helped metal space to close above green line for the week but still has underperformed Nifty 50 index which has gained more than 3% during the same period. Announcement of phase 1 of deal in trade talks has helped metals to see smart recovery throughout the week. On daily charts, the index is flirting with its major short term moving averages and is stuck in a broad range of 2350 to 2550. On the derivative front, the stocks suggest a long built up in most of the stocks indicating the ongoing positivity is likely to continue. The breadth of the index is very positive with 13 stocks ending in green and rest 2 have closed slightly in red. Leading the leader board, most of the PSE have gained more with HINDCOPPER gaining nearly 30% and NMDC, SAIL, COLAINDIA, JINDALSTEL gaining more than 10% during the week while HINDZINC, MOIL,NATIONALUM, TATASTEEL have gained around 5%. For now, the immediate supports for the index is placed near its recent swing lows of 2350 and below it previous major unfilled gap up zone of 2250-2280 shall act as a support while on the flipside, resistance may be assumed around 2530-2570 and above that at 2650 levels. Going forward, we assume the index is likely to continue its up move and may trade in the range of 2400 to 2520.

MARICO LIMITED: BUY MARICO (OCT FUTURE) | CMP: 393.10 SECTOR: FMCG

MARICO is trading with bullish bias on the weekly charts making repeated cycles of higher highs and higher lows. The stock is our preferred pick in the FMCG space and is currently trading above the major moving averages and support area of 380-385 levels on the daily charts. The stock has started a fresh leg of rally in the last week and is expected to give breakout from the consolidation range of 370-395 levels. Analyzing the price volume action, the stock has witnessed good volumes around the lower levels of 375-380 in the last week indicating good accumulation. On the Bollinger band (20, 2) front, the stock is trading well above the mean on the weekly charts with the lower band turning towards the northward direction indicating the supports are shifting towards higher levels. The immediate supports for the stock is placed at 385 followed by 377 levels while resistance is pegged around 398-401 levels in the short term period. Short term traders may go long on the stock around 388 levels keeping a stop loss below 378 for the targets of 402 levels in the October derivatives series.

Sentiment

Initiation 388

Stop Loss 378

Target 402

Lot Size 2600

Margin 181000

21-DEMA 385

Open Interest Shares 12040600

Change in OI -533000

Cost of Carry (%) 8.96

FEDERAL BANK: SELL FEDERALBNK (OCT FUTURE) | CMP: 84.25 SECTOR: BFSI

FEDERALBNK has been one of the underperformers in the broader markets in the past week and is trading with sideways to bearish bias on the weekly charts. At current juncture, the counter is trading well below the major moving averages and any pullback towards the above range may be utilized to create fresh short positions for short term perspective. On the weekly charts, the stock has closed below the mean of the Bollinger band (20, 2) indicating underlying weakness is likely to continue. On the other hand, the overall private banking index has witnessed good gains while the stock has been under the grip of the bears in the last few sessions. The stock is expected to retest the recent swing lows of 79-80 levels in the near term and breach below the same may trigger further round of selling which may take the stock price towards 75 levels as well. Any rise towards the 21-DEMA on the daily charts around 85-85.50 levels may be utilized to create fresh short positions in the stock for the downside targets of 80 keeping a strict stop loss above 88.50 levels in the October derivative series.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (11661.85): Indian equity benchmark index Nifty 50 closed higher by 3.06% during the week. During the week, Indian markets outperformed the major global markets.

The markets witnessed a sharp rally on foreign investor buying; progress in US-China trade talks and as well as a deal being reached between the UK and EU on Brexit. CPI

data released during the week climbed to a 14-month high of 3.99% in September due to costlier vegetables and pulses but remained within the RBI’s comfort zone. The WPI

inflation rate, on the other hand, fell to a 39-month low of 0.33% from 1.08% over the same period.

Technically, the index may face resistance around 11695 levels, the previous swing high formed around 23rd Sep 2019. For the index to maintain its bullishness, it needs to

breakout and sustain the said resistance of 11695-700 levels. On the derivatives front, open interest data suggests that the index may find its supports around 11600 followed

by 11500 levels while on the higher side, 11800 and 12000 may act as strong resistance.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE: BUY CALL IN NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of NIFTY 24 OCT 11700 CE @ 62

STG OUTFLOW 4650.00

BEP 11762.00

MAX PROFIT Unlimited above BEP

MAX LOSS 4650.00

RATIONALE The index is expected to trade with bullish bias in the near term.

TYPE: BULL CALL IN ADANIPORTS

FIRST LEG Buy ADANIPORTS October 425 CE @ 7.50

SECOND LEG Sell ADANIPORTS October 440 CE @ 3.50

BEP 429

MAX PROFIT 25000

MAX LOSS 10000

RATIONALE

ADANIPORTS has given breakout from 4 days triangle patterns and moved significantly higher to end with a gain of more than 3% on Friday. The stock is on the verge of breaking out of 5 months trading range and may move much higher in the coming weeks. The volumes on the up move are very much high when compared with the down moves, indicating strong hands are accumulating the counter. Its derivative activity suggests that positivity is likely to continue for near term. Hence, bullish view till expiry.

TYPE: PUT RATIO IN GLENMARK

FIRST LEG Buy 1 Lot of GLENMARK October 300 PE @ 12

SECOND LEG Sell 2 Lots of GLENMARK October 270 PE @ 2.75

BEP Lower BEP : 245 and Upper BEP : 293

MAX PROFIT 23500 if it expires at 270

MAX LOSS Unlimited Below Lower BEP and 6500 Above Upper BEP

RATIONALEGLENMARK is in clean downtrend witnessed by its lower lows and lower highs on all major time frames, and the stock has halved itself for the current calendar year. Along with Glenmark Pharma, other major Pharma stocks have cracked on the hangover of USFDA observations. The stock is in very short pull back rally. Hence, neutral to bearish view on the stock.

TYPE: BUY CALL IN BANK NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of BANK NIFTY 24 OCT 29200 CE @ 331

STG OUTFLOW 6620.00

BEP 29531.00

MAX PROFIT Unlimited above BEP

MAX LOSS 6,620.00

RATIONALE The index is expected to trade with bullish bias in the near term.

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7KSTREET - 19TH OCTOBER, 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

CASTROLIND 133.8 0.56 7439000 33.33

MUTHOOTFIN 675.8 1.89 2460000 26.93

BERGEPAINT 499.05 4.4 8404000 26.32

PVR 1827.55 1.91 1232000 24.91

CENTURYTEX 400.05 1.57 1751000 24.17

ADANIENT 175.1 27.86 32056000 21.37

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


STAR 353.85 9.08 2203000 -28.95

CESC 812.65 7.42 873000 -26.18

HEXAWARE 379.45 2.93 1652000 -19.81

TORNTPHARM 1684.65 2.45 398000 -17.08

CANBK 188.85 5.47 10898000 -12.4

DLF 168.85 15.97 40510000 -11.32

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


INDIGO 1729.9 -1.13 3813000 41.69

TATAPOWER 59.95 -1.88 49104000 21.27

SRF 2693.7 -0.01 1000000 19.01

EXIDEIND 183 -0.25 11525000 15.4

INFY 767.85 -5.76 50723000 12.87

PIDILITIND 1351.5 -1.05 3768000 10.35

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


AMARAJABAT 668.5 -4.92 1555000 -4.92

M&MFIN 319.25 -2.24 13450000 -2.24

BANKBARODA 89.8 -1.57 70983000 -1.57

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COMMODITIES

BULLIONIt was a choppy trading week for the global precious metals market that ended on 18th October as the market participants took a cautious approach ahead of two important events later in the month. The first event is the US Federal Reserve meeting on 29-30 October 2019 wherein the US central is likely to slash interest rate by another 25 basis points for the third time in a row as the economic condition is not showing great improvement after release of series of economic data since start of the month. Another event is completion of Brexit process on 31st October 2019. Great Britain has secured a Brexit deal with the European Union but it needs to get its parliament nod for the agreement approved. CME gold futures have moved in a thin range of $1480.75 - $1502.45 per troy ounce while silver futures traded in the range $17.18 - $17.76 per troy ounce. Major economic releases during the week were retail sales for the month of September, which fell by -0.3% against previous reading of growth of 0.6% and market expectation of growth of 0.3%. The US building permits and housing starts declined in September by -2.7% to 1.39 million and -9.4% to 1.26 million respectively. The US industrial production contracted to -0.4% in September from expansion of 0.8% in the previous month. The dollar index fell to 7-week low as the Euro and Great Britain Pound surged to multi-week highs after Brexit deal. However, this movement failed to have major impact on the bullion market. On domestic front, volatile movement in the Indian Rupee against the US dollar made the MCX gold and silver to show volatile trend during the week. On broader perspective, MCX gold traded in the range of Rs. 37771 – Rs. 38420 per 10 grams while silver traded in the range of Rs. 44700 – Rs. 46012 per kg.

ENERGYCrude oil prices remained stable on Friday after China, the world’s largest oil consumer

showed its weakest quarter of economic growth in nearly three decades and resulted in

a trade dispute with the US. The Chinese government released its third-quarter GDP data

which stood at 6% q/q, along with Industrial production of September showing positive

momentum stood at 5.8%. Although the prices breathed easy after the refining sector in

two consuming giants US & China boosted the bullish demand sentiment. As per EIA weekly

inventory report, US crude inventories increased by 9.3 million barrels in the week ended

11th October compared to markets expectations for an increase of 2.9 million barrels. OPEC

and its allies have agreed to limit their oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) until

March 2020. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s crude output also rose 209,000 bpd to 9.789 million

bpd in August, a month after falling to its lowest since March 2014. US crude exports to

Asia, which have slumped due to record freight costs, stirred on Thursday as rates slid and

the premium in Asia for Russia’s ESPO Blend oil sent buyers back to US grades. According

to four OPEC sources, OPEC and partners including Russia found compliance with cuts for

September stood at 236%. OPEC and its allies have agreed to limit their oil production by 1.2

million barrels per day (bpd) until March 2020. Natural gas futures opened higher on Friday

amid the change in 8-14 days weather outlook as temperature levels hover near normal

levels suggesting a delay in expected winter season. As per EIA, working gas in storage was

3,519 Bcf as of Friday, 11th October representing a net increase of 104 Bcf from the previous

week. At 3,519 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. Stocks were 494

Bcf higher than last year at this time and 14 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,505 Bcf.

EIA forecasts that natural gas storage levels will total 3,792 Bcf by the end of October which

is 2% above the five-year average and 17% above October 2018 levels.

METALSMetals traded on a positive note in the initial days of the week ending on 18th October and

made losses in the later half after demand sentiments were affected by trade talks. Fall in

retail and core retail sales of US developed concerns for metal prices. Chinese government

is planning to follow strict standards of lowering impurities in imports of copper and

aluminium. As per the market news, it is likely to import aluminium of 98% purity and 0.7%

impurities. Imports of copper concentrates in China stood at 1.58 million tons in September,

which was down by 12.9% from August, as per the data from the China’s Customs. After

making a high of 2.07 million tons in July, the imports were down for the second straight

month. During the January-September period of 2019, China’s imports of copper

concentrate were summed up to 16 million tons, up 6.8% compared to the same period of

2018. Also, imports of unwrought copper and copper products expanded 10.1% from August

to 445,000 tons in September, thus bringing the imports in January-September period to

3.54 million tons, a fall of 11.3% on a yearly note. Passenger vehicle sales in China were down

in September for a third time on a monthly basis, by 6.6% from a 2018 to 1.81 million units,

as per the China Passenger Car Association. Imports of Tin in China were down by 18% in

August standing at 3,858 tons, and the cargoes from Myanmar were down to 3,553 tons.

Imports in August came in at 12,860 tons in physical content, with material from Myanmar

taking up 11,844 tons. Production and sales of new energy vehicles in China stood at 89,000

units and 80,000 units in September respectively, which was down by 29.9% and 34.2%

from September 2018. As of date starting from 2019, NEV sales amounted to 872,000 units,

which were up 20.8% from the same period last year, with production rising 20.9% on an

annual basis to 888,000 units.

COTTONCotton prices remained under pressure for most part of the week ended on 11th October extending its losses of previous week on bumper crop outlook. Commencement of arrivals in northern region especially in Punjab and Haryana triggered selling pressure in domestic market. Kapas prices ruled at Rs. 5200-5400 per quintal in northern part of India wherein it ruled at Rs. 5500- 5900 per quintal in Gujarat. Losses in cotton prices were also driven by the forecast of favorable weather condition for harvesting in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Improved harvesting activities and better yield prospects in Telangana supported by recent rainfall weighed on prices during the week. Cotton production in India during year 2019-20 is likely to be higher by at least 15%-18% due to larger acreages. Total cotton acreages for year 2019-20 is estimated at 127.63 lakh hectares against the 121.05 lakh hectares of prior year for corresponding period as per the data released by Ministry of Agriculture. Meanwhile, USDA projected Indian cotton production at 391 lakh bales ( 1 bales =170 kg) for year 2019-20 in its monthly supply and demand estimation report released on 10th October. Ministry of Agriculture trimmed its production estimates for cotton during year 2018-19 estimated at 287 lakh bales in its fourth and final advance estimates and projected cotton production in year 2019-20 at 322 lakh bales. However, ICE cotton futures witnessed upward movement where firmness were largely supported by expectation of positive progress of ongoing trade talk between US and China. Meanwhile, USDA revised its estimates for US cotton production slightly lower from last month estimates by 1% to 21.7 million bales, largely the result of a reduction in Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month, and ending stocks are reduced 200,000 bales at 7.0 million bales (1 bales = 480 lb each).

SOYBEAN Soybean prices extended its losses during the week due to surging arrival pressure at key trading centers. Forecast of favourable weather condition for harvesting in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra drifted prices down during the week. Daily arrivals of soybean across India increased up to 2 lakh bags by end of week wherein prices ruled at Rs. 3650-3750 per quintal. Moreover, rising prices disparity of Indian meal in global market also impacted market sentiments down during the week. However, prices tried to recover on Friday on lower production estimates released by Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) for year 2019-20. SOPA released its production estimates at 89.94 lakh tonnes against the government’s first advance estimates of 135.05 lakh tonnes. SOPA estimates total area under soybean in Khariff 2019 at 107.613 lakh hectares as against government’s estimate of 113.988 lakh hectares. Meanwhile, USDA revised global soybean production downwardly from 341.4 million tonnes to 338.97 million tonnes in its monthly supply and demand estimation report for month of October due to estimation of fall in production in US. USDA estimated US soybean production for year 2019-20 at 96.62 million tonnes against the prior forecast of 98.87 million tonnes. USDA trimmed soybean inventory levels in US abruptly from 17.43 million tonnes to 12.52 million tonnes. However, soybean production estimates for Argentina and Brazil were kept unchanged at 53 million tonnes and 123 million tonnes respectively in USDA latest report. At veg oil counter, CPO prices ruled under pressure due to increased inventory levels in Malaysia due to surging production and declining export. Malaysian palm oil board estimated CPO production in Malaysia at 1.84 million tonnes up by 1.15% from the previous month wherein CPO stocks were estimated at 1.35 million tonnes higher by 4.84 % M/M.

GUAROn NCDEX, guar seed and gum futures traded on a positive note during the week ended on 18th October tracking improved buying in physical market. Weak arrivals in major belts of Rajasthan and Haryana region may add positive sentiments in the market. Investors made a fresh position at the lower levels due to firm trend in the market. Gum exports were also improved during the week end. As per the Rajasthan government, first advanced estimates showed total guar production for the year 2019-20 at 17.16 lakh tonnes whereas the Gujarat first advance estimation showed105.64 thousand tonnes of guar production in 2019-20. During the week in Rajasthan, arrivals were recorded around 107470 quintals from 14th October to 18th September which was down by 16005 quintals from the previous week. As per the data from the agriculture and processed food products export development authority, India guar gum export from April-June 2019 is 148812 MT fall by 16%YoY. Guar seed most active November contract making a high of Rs. 3974 per quintal and closed the weekly session at Rs. 3944 per quintal down by 1.31% whereas gum futures for the same contract made a high of Rs. 7455 per quintal and closed the weekly session at Rs. 7352 per quintal down by 0.33%.


COMMODITIES

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 11-Oct 18-Oct % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 37845.0 38075.0 0.6% 39885.00 -4.54% 30107.00 26.47%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 45171.0 45304.0 0.3% 50672.00 -10.59% 34981.00 29.51%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3869.0 3866.0 -0.1% 5135.00 -24.71% 2993.00 29.17%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 158.1 163.6 3.5% 358.70 -54.39% 144.60 13.14%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 443.2 440.3 -0.6% 468.65 -6.05% 397.40 10.80%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 157.0 156.5 -0.3% 168.00 -6.88% 123.80 26.37%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 187.5 185.6 -1.0% 233.65 -20.59% 167.20 10.97%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 1248.5 1178.3 -5.6% 1314.80 -10.38% 735.00 60.31%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 133.7 133.5 -0.1% 158.25 -15.64% 124.75 7.01%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3766.0 3850.0 2.2% 4097.00 -6.03% 3149.00 22.26%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 754.9 753.5 -0.2% 784.00 -3.89% 713.60 5.59%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4060.0 4140.0 2.0% 4241.00 -2.38% 3711.00 11.56%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 548.2 557.4 1.7% 594.50 -6.24% 483.40 15.31%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4286.0 4448.0 3.8% 6300.00 -29.40% 4176.00 6.51%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 5732.0 5704.0 -0.5% 7360.00 -22.50% 5560.00 2.59%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 17075.0 16205.0 -5.1% 21000.00 -22.83% 15140.00 7.03%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 5841.0 6010.0 2.9% 7688.00 -21.83% 5267.00 14.11%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 3225.1 2539.2 -21.3% 4265.30 -40.47% 1375.90 84.55%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2093.0 2067.0 -1.2% 2162.00 -4.39% 1770.00 16.78%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3827.5 3890.0 1.6% 4869.50 -20.12% 3731.00 4.26%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 7262.0 7262.0 0.0% 10510.00 -30.90% 7002.00 3.71%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 19660.0 19620.0 -0.2% 23280.00 -15.72% 19320.00 1.55%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 2169.0 2268.0 4.6% 3698.00 -38.67% 1766.00 28.43%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1211.5 1204.0 -0.6% 1846.10 -34.78% 1176.00 2.38%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

LME ZINC 3M FORWARDS

MCX CPO OCT FUTURES


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• GOLD PRICES showed no change for the week against a falling US Dollar in Friday afternoon’s trading in London, holding at $1490 per ounce as world stock markets struggled following news of China’s weakest economic growth for at least 27 years. Western government bond prices slipped, edging longer-term interest rates higher and putting 10-year US Treasury yields unchanged for the week at 1.75% per year.

• US crude oil refinery inputs decreased during the week ending 11th October, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day (b/d) last week, 221,000 b/d less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 83.1% of their operable capacity last week.

• Global stainless steel consumption growth is set to slow this year before rebounding in 2020, according to projections from the International Stainless Steel Federation. Stainless consumption is forecast to grow 2.4% this year, down from a growth rate of 4.8% in 2018, and then rise by a further 4.4% in 2020, the ISSF said after its autumn meeting this week in Monterrey, Mexico.

• India’s cotton imports rose by around 800,000 bales to 2.3 million bales till 31st August this cotton season compared to the previous cotton season due to lower international rates than domestic prices, India Ratings and Research said on Friday.

• Indonesia’s palm oil output likely slipped in August from a month earlier while exports were seen about 7% higher, a Reuters survey showed. Exports were estimated at 2.9 million tonnes in August, up from 2.7 million tonnes in the previous month according to a survey of a palm oil industry group, an industry expert and a state palm oil research firm.

• American agribusiness Cargill is dedicating $225 Mn to an expansion project at its integrated soybean crush and oil refining site in Sidney, OH as the company looks to meet increasing demand for protein and refined oils.The investment will be used to boost the facility’s crush capacity and upgrade operations, the company said in a press release issued on Wednesday. Cargill also support area farmers with features like improved truck unloading capabilities in Sidney.

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COMMODITIES

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 277350 268400 -8950 -3.23%

Zinc 62025 60825 -1200 -1.93%

Aluminium 983600 977125 -6475 -0.66%

Lead 68850 69125 275 0.40%

Nickel 94134 86580 -7554 -8.02%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 118108 134509 16401 13.89%

Zinc 64095 70172 6077 9.48%

Aluminium 313911 319873 5962 1.90%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 30204 30600 396 1.31%

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 11-Oct 18-Oct % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1722.00 1728.50 0.38%

Copper LME 3M 5803.00 5749.00 -0.93%

Lead LME 3M 2177.00 2186.00 0.41%

Nickel LME 3M 17525.00 16220.00 -7.45%

Zinc LME 3M 2423.00 2434.00 0.45%

Gold CME Aug 1538.10 1538.10 0.00%

Silver CME July 14.28 14.28 0.00%

WTI Crude oil CME June 54.91 54.10 -1.48%

Natural Gas CME June 2.22 2.32 4.37%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 11-Oct 18-Oct % change

Soybean CBOT July 959.75 956.50 -0.34%

Soy oil CBOT July 27.98 27.98 0.00%

CPO BMD Aug 2027.00 2027.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE July 66.23 66.23 0.00%

CHINA TRADE BALANCE DATA

Aug % change Year ago % change YTD % change"Ending

Stocks"

CRUDE OIL & REFINED PRODUCTS

Imports

Crude oil 41.24 42.17 -2.2 37.21 10.8 369.04 9.7

Refined products 2.14 2.09 2.6 2.92 -26.5 22.63 -8.8

Fuel Oil No. 5-7 0.87 0.98 -10.9 1.73 -49.5 10.76 -13.3

Natural gas 8.21 8.34 -1.5 7.62 7.8 71.22 10

Exports

Crude oil 0.08 N/A N/A 0.29 -70.5 0.76 -65.6

Refined products 5.68 4.08 39.4 4.07 39.6 47.76 7.8

Net Imports:

Crude oil 41.16 N/A N/A 36.93 11.5 368.28 10.2

Refined products -3.54 -1.99 -78 -1.15 -207.2 -25.12 -29.1

BASE METALS

Imports

Unwrought copper 445000 404000 10.1 521000 -14.6 3539000 -11.3

Copper ores & concentrates

1581000 1815000 -12.9 1930000 -18.1 16003000 6.8

Exports

Unwrought aluminium and

products435000 466000 -6.7 507000 -14.2 4370000 2.8

-21.27%

-5.62%

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0.68%

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4.56%

5.24%

-25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00%

Barley

Soybean

Dhaniya

Silver

Natural Gas

Crude Oil

Copper

Mentha Oil

Castor Seed

Turmeric

Lead

RM Seed

Wheat

Nickel

Aluminum

Gold

Zinc

Cotton

Guar Seed

Jeera

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Soy Oil

Cardamom

CPO

Guar Gum


USD/INR

USDINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 71.71 and low of 70.76. The RSI is at 57.43. Moving average of 50 is at 70.55. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend Buying at 70.80 TP 71.50-71.70 SL 70.50

EUR/INR

EURINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 79.31 and low of 78.04. The RSI is trading at 54.90. Moving average of 50 is at 79.28. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 79.00 TP 80.00 SL 78.50.

GBP/INR

GBPINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 92.38 and low of 89.15. The RSI is trading at 62.67. Moving average of 50 is at 89.44. The trend is looking bullish for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 91.00 TP 92.30 SL 90.50.

JPY/INR

JPYINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 66.15 and low of 65.29. The RSI is at 53.08. Moving average of 50 is at 64.13. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 67.00 TP 65.80 SL 67.50.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

USD/INR closed for the week at 71.14 after hitting a weekly high of 71.72 and low of 70.74. Sensex ended the week 246 points higher at 39298 whereas the Nifty was up 75 points at 11661. Pound fell marginally on doubts about the merits of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal and about the likelihood of him persuading Parliament to approve it. Chinese Yuan traded weak against USD after China’s economic growth slowed to its lowest in nearly 30 years in the third quarter, rising 6.0% rather than the expected 6.1%. DXY trades at 97.54 down 0.06%. Euro traded around seven-week high against the US dollar. India’s retail inflation rate in September grew 3.99% almost breaching RBI’s target level of 4%. Retail inflation for August stood at 3.21%. Few days back, the IMF reduced India’s growth forecast for FY20 by 90 basis points to 6.1% from its July estimate. On October 4, the RBI too revised its FY20 India growth estimates to 6.1% from 6.8% earlier. Despite the recent revision in India’s growth estimates, market believes the economy will start looking up from the second half (H2) of FY20. India’s industrial productivity for August contracted 1.1% year-on-year (YoY) vis-a-vis 4.3% YoY growth in the preceding month. On the global front, China wants another high-level meeting later this month to finalize the recent agreement between US and China. Dollar weakened on lower US retail data. US retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September, increasing chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates later this month. Pound traded near a five-month high against the Dollar and the Euro after Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Union leaders agreed a new deal for Britain to exit the bloc. Even if Johnson wins approval in parliament, Britain is still on course for more distant economic ties and increased trade barriers with the EU affecting its economic growth. Turkish markets rose after its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to a five-day ceasefire in Syria following a meeting with US Vice President. Yuan held steady against the Dollar after data showed China’s economy grew at the weakest pace in more than 27 years in the third quarter due to trade war with the US and weak factory production. China’s economic growth slowed more than expected to 6.0% year-on-year in the third quarter. The world’s two-largest economies have imposed tariffs on each other’s goods threatening global economic growth. US and Chinese trade negotiators are working to finalize Phase 1 trade deal text for their presidents to sign next month, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said. USD/INR to find near term support at 71.00 and resistance at 71.50 levels.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• British pound traded near a five-month high against the dollar and the euro after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Union leaders agreed a new deal for Britain to exit the bloc.

• Even if Johnson wins approval in parliament, Britain is still on course for more distant economic ties and increased trade barriers with the EU affecting its economic growth.

• Turkish markets rose after its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to a five-day ceasefire in Syria following a meeting with US Vice President.

• Chinese economy grew by 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019, the lowest quarterly growth since records began in March 1992.

• US industrial production fell 0.4% in September, the biggest drop since April.

• US crude inventories increased by 9.3 million barrels in the week ended Oct.11 against a forecast of 2.9 million barrels.

• US retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September, increasing chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates later this month.

• US and Chinese trade negotiators are working to finalize Phase 1 trade deal text for their presidents to sign next month, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said.

• China’s Foreign Ministry expressed strong indignation at US lawmakers’ actions. Hong Kong is China’s internal affairs and urged US Lawmakers to stop interfering.

• Bank of Korea cuts key interest rate to 1.25% from 1.50%.

• India’s exports contracted by 6.57% to $26 Bn in September.

• IMF has reduced India’s growth forecast for FY20 by 90 basis points to 6.1% down from 7% estimate in July.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 70.92 71.72 70.74 71.14

EURINR 78.30 79.28 78.05 79.27

GBPINR 89.56 92.38 89.10 91.69

JPYINR 65.86 66.14 65.32 65.52


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Local Start Date Country Indicator Name Period Prior Min Max Count SmartEstimate® Predicted Surprise

21 Oct 2019 United Kingdom House Price Rightmove MM Oct -0.20000%

21 Oct 2019 United Kingdom House Price Rightmove YY Oct 0.20000%

21 Oct 2019 China (Mainland) China House Prices YY Sep 8.8%

21 Oct 2019 China (Mainland) Loan Prime Rate 1Y Oct 4.20%

21 Oct 2019 China (Mainland) Loan Prime Rate 5Y Oct 4.85%

21 Oct 2019 United Kingdom Steel Production Sep 562.50k

21 Oct 2019 United States Federal Budget,$ Sep -200.00B

22 Oct 2019 United Kingdom PSNB Ex Banks GBP Sep 6.418B 8.300B 10.300B 11 9.4552B -0.0448B

22 Oct 2019 United Kingdom PSNB, GBP Sep 5.766B 7.600B 9.500B 5 8.7082B 0.0082B

22 Oct 2019 United Kingdom PSNCR, GBP Sep 6.399B

22 Oct 2019 United Kingdom CBI Trends - Orders Oct -28 -35 -18 7 -26.3 -3.3

22 Oct 2019 United States Redbook MM 19 Oct, w/e -0.2%

22 Oct 2019 United States Redbook YY 19 Oct, w/e 4.1%

22 Oct 2019 United States Existing Home Sales Sep 5.49M 5.32M 5.60M 36 5.446M -0.004M

22 Oct 2019 United States Exist. Home Sales % Chg Sep 1.3% -1.6% 1.1% 15 -0.54% 0.16%

22 Oct 2019 United States Rich Fed Comp. Index Oct -9

22 Oct 2019 United States Rich Fed, Services Index Oct 6

22 Oct 2019 United States Rich Fed Mfg Shipments Oct -14

23 Oct 2019 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 18 Oct, w/e 0.5%

23 Oct 2019 United States Mortgage Market Index 18 Oct, w/e 585.5

23 Oct 2019 United States MBA Purchase Index 18 Oct, w/e 250.6

23 Oct 2019 United States Mortgage Refinance Index 18 Oct, w/e 2,505.8

23 Oct 2019 United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 18 Oct, w/e 3.92%

23 Oct 2019 India M3 Money Supply 11 Oct, w/e 9.7%

23 Oct 2019 United States Monthly Home Price MM Aug 0.4%

23 Oct 2019 United States Monthly Home Price YY Aug 5.0%

23 Oct 2019 United States Monthly Home Price Index Aug 276.9

23 Oct 2019 Euro Zone Consumer Confid. Flash Oct -6.5 -7.5 -5.9 16 -6.74 0.06

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 18 Oct, w/e 9.281M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks 18 Oct, w/e -3.823M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk 14 Oct, w/e -2.562M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Crude Imports 18 Oct, w/e 0.224M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks 18 Oct, w/e -0.008M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock 18 Oct, w/e 0.516M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Prods Imports 18 Oct, w/e -0.459M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Dist Output 18 Oct, w/e -0.147M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Crude Runs 14 Oct, w/e -0.220M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Refining Util 18 Oct, w/e -2.6%

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Wkly Crude Cushing 18 Oct, w/e 1.276M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P 18 Oct, w/e -0.068M

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Ethanol Ref Stk 18 Oct, w/e 22,061k

23 Oct 2019 United States EIA Ethanol Fuel Total 18 Oct, w/e 971k

24 Oct 2019 United Kingdom UK Finance Mortgage Apps Sep 42.576k

24 Oct 2019 Euro Zone Markit Mfg Flash PMI Oct 45.7 45.0 46.5 23 45.80 -0.20

24 Oct 2019 Euro Zone Markit Serv Flash PMI Oct 51.6 51.0 52.5 23 51.86 -0.04

24 Oct 2019 Euro Zone Markit Comp Flash PMI Oct 50.1 49.5 50.8 17 50.25 -0.15

24 Oct 2019 Euro Zone ECB Refinancing Rate Oct 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 92 0.000% 0.000%

24 Oct 2019 Euro Zone ECB Deposit Rate Oct -0.50% -0.50% -0.50% 88 -0.500% 0.000%

24 Oct 2019 United States Build Permits R Numb Sep 1.387M

24 Oct 2019 United States Build Permits R Chg MM Sep -2.7%

24 Oct 2019 United States Durable Goods Sep 0.2% -3.0% 2.2% 39 -0.63% 0.07%

CURRENCY


24 Oct 2019 United States Durables Ex-Transport Sep 0.5% -0.9% 0.5% 29 -0.07% 0.03%

24 Oct 2019 United States Durables Ex-Defense MM Sep -0.6%

24 Oct 2019 United States Nondefe Cap Ex-Air Sep -0.4% -0.3% 0.1% 7 -0.12% -0.02%

24 Oct 2019 United States Initial Jobless Claims 19 Oct, w/e 214k 210k 220k 21 215.0k 0.0k

24 Oct 2019 United States Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 19 Oct, w/e 214.75k

24 Oct 2019 United States Continued Jobless Claims 12 Oct, w/e 1.679M 1.675M 1.680M 5 1.6769M 0.0019M

24 Oct 2019 United States Markit Comp Flash PMI Oct 51.0

24 Oct 2019 United States Markit Mfg PMI Flash Oct 51.1 49.7 51.0 11 50.42 -0.28

24 Oct 2019 United States Markit Svcs PMI Flash Oct 50.9 50.5 52.0 10 50.79 -0.11

24 Oct 2019 United States New Home Sales-Units Sep 0.713M 0.670M 0.730M 37 0.7018M 0.0018M

24 Oct 2019 United States New Home Sales Chg MM Sep 7.1% -6.0% 2.1% 14 -1.08% -0.58%

24 Oct 2019 United States EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf 18 Oct, w/e 104B

24 Oct 2019 United States Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow 18 Oct, w/e 104B

24 Oct 2019 United States KC Fed Manufacturing Oct 11

24 Oct 2019 United States KC Fed Composite Index Oct -2

25 Oct 2019 India Bank Loan Growth 7 Oct, w/e

25 Oct 2019 India Deposit Growth 7 Oct, w/e

25 Oct 2019 India FX Reserves, USD 14 Oct, w/e 439.71B

25 Oct 2019 United States U Mich Sentiment Final Oct 96.0 93.0 97.5 28 95.89 -0.11

25 Oct 2019 United States U Mich Conditions Final Oct 113.4

25 Oct 2019 United States U Mich Expectations Final Oct 84.8

25 Oct 2019 United States U Mich 1Yr Inf Final Oct 2.5%

25 Oct 2019 United States U Mich 5-Yr Inf Final Oct 2.2%

18 Oct 2019 7:30 China (Mainland) Industrial Output YY Sep 4.4% 5.0% Percent Percent

18 Oct 2019 7:30 China (Mainland) Retail Sales YY Sep 7.5% 7.8% Percent Percent

18 Oct 2019 7:30 China (Mainland) GDP YY Q3 6.2% 6.1% Percent Percent

18 Oct 2019 7:30 China (Mainland) GDP QQ SA Q3 1.6% 1.5% Percent Percent

18 Oct 2019 7:30 China (Mainland) GDP YTD YY Q3 6.3% Percent Percent

18 Oct 2019 7:30 China (Mainland) Industrial Production YTD YY Sep 5.6% Percent Percent

18 Oct 2019 7:30 China (Mainland) Retail Sales YTD YY Sep 8.21% Percent Percent

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Corn Export Sales New 7 Oct, w/e 319.20k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Corn Export Sales Net 7 Oct, w/e 284.400k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Corn Exp Sale Next Yr Net 7 Oct, w/e 0.00k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Corn Exp Sales Net Total 7 Oct, w/e 284.40k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soybean Export Sales New 7 Oct, w/e 2,178.800k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soybean Export Sales Net 7 Oct, w/e 2,092.500k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soybean Exp Sale Next Yr Net 7 Oct, w/e 3.00k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soybean Exp Sale Net Total 7 Oct, w/e 2,095.50k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soybeanmeal Exp Sale Net 7 Oct, w/e 364.70k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soymeal Exp Sls Next Yr Net 7 Oct, w/e 0.00k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soybn Meal Exp Sls Net Total 7 Oct, w/e 364.70k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soybeanoil Exp Sales Net 7 Oct, w/e 1.20k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soybn Oil Exp Sls Nxt Yr Net 7 Oct, w/e 0.00k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Soybn Oil Exp Sls Net Total 7 Oct, w/e 1.20k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Wheat Export Sales New 7 Oct, w/e 582.400k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Wheat Export Sales Net 7 Oct, w/e 521.900k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Wheat Exp Sale Next Yr Net 7 Oct, w/e 0.00k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Wheat Exp Sale Net Total 7 Oct, w/e 521.90k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Beef Export Sales New 7 Oct, w/e 15.000k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Beef Export Sales Net 7 Oct, w/e -29.000k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Up Cotton Exp Sales New 7 Oct, w/e 198.600k Number of Number of

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States Up Cotton Exp Sales Net 7 Oct, w/e 188.800k Number of Number of

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States US Pork Export Sales New 7 Oct, w/e 34.800k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 18:00 United States US Pork Export Sales Net 7 Oct, w/e 31.300k Tonne Tonne

18 Oct 2019 19:30 United States Leading Index Chg MM Sep -0.3% 0.1% Percent Percent

CURRENCY


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