rule the market - karvy onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue048.pdf ·...

ISSUE: 048

03RD AUGUST, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

Disclaimer: Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL] is registered as a research analyst with SEBI (Registration No INZ000172733). KSBL is also a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production, profiling and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. This report is based on information obtained from public sources, the respective corporate under coverage and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KSBL. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, KSBL is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KSBL from doing so. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. KSBL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither KSBL nor any associate companies of KSBL accepts any liability arising from the use of information and views mentioned in this report. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, profiling and related services or in any other capacity.KSBL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analyst(s) is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report. Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

Central Bank EasingGlobal markets were expecting a more dovish Fed and are disappointed by “mid cycle adjustment” and in the immediate aftermath of the move, the US Dollar (DXY) rose to a 2 year high. The move is not good for EM equities including India and on Thursday, Nifty declined by 1.24%. The world economy got further bad news when US President Donald Trump announced his decision to hike tariffs by 10% on imports worth

USD 300 Bn. This has further rattled markets. Although, ironically raised the probability of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.

The US economy has experienced growth deceleration, but remains in decent shape. The unemployment rate at 3.7% is near a 50 year low, wages grew at 3.2% YoY and latest GDP grew at 2.1%, a healthy pace, but the rate of growth has slowed down from 2.9% for the year 2018. However, there are concerns about the durability of growth after what is the longest business cycle expansion and flattening of the US yield curve has heightened these concerns.

However, slowing growth outside of US, notably in China as well as Europe and Japan is a matter of concern. Trade wars have increased concerns of a sharp slowdown and possible recession in the global economy and the US Federal Reserve views these cuts as an insurance rather than a start of a easing cycle, though further cuts are not ruled out.

For Indian equities, the less dovish US Monetary Policy comes on top of the headwinds it has faced recently, like FII selling on account of tax proposals. There are other reasons as well for weakness in Indian equities; firstly, the weakness in economy has not abated, as evident by the core sector data and auto sales. Secondly, while some companies have reported good numbers, most companies have reported earnings that have been disappointing and commentary has not been encouraging.

For Indian markets, the next important trigger is the RBI policy meeting next week. A 25 bps cut is widely anticipated, though a 50 bps cut cannot be ruled out. We also do not rule out further stimulus from the government. This could be in the form of a temporary GST cut for Autos, increase in infrastructure spending, etc. On account of the RBI actions to provide liquidity, the system is now in surplus. We continue to believe that the economy should stabilize in Q2FY2019-20 and gradually improve. H2FY2019-20 should be better the first half. As a result, equity markets should be in better shape in a couple of quarters.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-15

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Arun Kumar Mantri

Osho Krishan

Amit Samar

M V Narasinga Rao

Deepak Balkrushna Sakure

Rahul K Sharma

Akshaya Shinde

Konpal Pali

Vivek Lohumi

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Ravi Pandey

Ravikanth P

Kushal Asthana

Arpit Chandna

Ramesh Chenchala

Amit Kumar

Karvy Head Office

Karvy Stock Broking Limited, Plot No.31/P, Karvy Millennium Towers, Nanakramguda, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad, Telangana-500032, India.

For More updates & Stock ResearchVisit: www.karvyonline.com

Toll free: 1800 419 8283

Email: [email protected]

Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- VIVEK RANJAN MISRAHead-Fundamental Research

EQUITY

Economy:

• Slower global growth, below normal monsoon and weaker corporate earnings will pull down India’s economic growth rate below 7% this fiscal, rating agency Crisil said. The agency has reduced its fiscal 2020 forecast by 20 basis points to 6.9%. One basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Agriculture:

• Dr KV Srinivasan, Chairman, Texprocil in a statement stated that exports of cotton yarn from India in the first quarter of April-June 2019 have fallen by a steep 33% from 338 Mn Kgs for the period April-June 2018 to 226 Mn Kgs in April – June 2019.

Banking:

• State-run Punjab National Bank (PNB) is looking to reduce its gross non-performing loans at under 12% this year with better recoveries.

• SBI Cards Payment and Services Pvt Ltd (SBI Cards), a 74:26 joint venture between SBI and global private equity firm Carlyle has started talks with merchant bankers for the proposed initial public offer (IPO) that’s pegged at about Rs. 8,000 crore.

Auto:

• Honda Cars India Ltd (HCIL) on Thursday reported a 48.67% decline in domestic sales to 10,250 units in July as against 19,970 units in the same month last year.

• The country’s largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki on Thursday reported 36.2% decline in passenger vehicle sales in the domestic market at 98210 units for July.

Power & Oil:

• Non-subsidized cooking gas (LPG) price was cut by Rs. 62.50 per cylinder on Wednesday on softening international rates.

• The Central government has asked states to ensure that the “must-run” status of renewable energy plants is honored and that if supply from these units is curtailed, the reason must be given in writing to generating companies.

Telecom:

• Vodafone Idea Ltd, India’s second-largest telecom operator in terms of subscribers is set to monetize its stake in Indus Towers as part of the latter’s merger with Bharti Infratel, which is in the final stage. Vodafone Idea is likely to get about Rs. 5,500-6,000 crore from the sale of its holding.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• Trump on Thursday said Washington will apply 10% tariffs on $300 Bn of Chinese goods starting Sep 1. That’s in addition to the $250 Bn of Chinese goods already subject to a 25% US tariff — which Beijing had retaliated to by imposing elevated levies on billions of dollars of American products that it imports.

TRENDSHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 37118.22 35820 36469 37905 38692 Down

NIFTY 10997.35 10590 10794 11256 11514 Down

NIFTYBANK 28204.95 26921 27563 29220 30235 Down

AXISBANK 673.85 608 641 723 773 Down

ICICIBANK 410.60 385 398 431 451 Down

IBULHSGFIN 489.65 398 444 567 645 Down

RELIANCE 1184.35 1114 1149 1221 1257 Down

YESBANK 88.30 72 80 98 107 Down

SBIN 308.45 281 295 334 360 Down

INDUSINDBK 1382.90 1245 1314 1450 1516 Down

HDFCBANK 2214.35 2135 2175 2262 2309 Down

BAJFINANCE 3237.90 3039 3139 3319 3399 Down

HDFC 2124.80 1977 2051 2187 2249 Down

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT

EX-DATE/

RESULT DATE

Hinduja Global Solutions Ltd Result Update 05 AUG 2019

Fortis Healthcare Ltd Result Update 06 Aug 2019

Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd Result Update 06 Aug 2019

Emami Ltd Result Update 08 Aug 2019

Britannia Industries Ltd Result Update 09 Aug 2019

Info Edge Ltd Final Dividend- Rs. 2.0 05 Aug 2019

CRISIL Interim Dividend- Rs. 6.0 06 Aug 2019

Dabur India Ltd Final Dividend- Rs. 1.5 07 Aug 2019

Indusind Bank Ltd Dividend- Rs.7.5 08 Aug 2019

KSTREET - 03RD AUGUST 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

-0.04

-0.04

-0.03

-0.03

-0.02

-0.02

-0.01

-0.01

0.00 Nifty

Sensex

BSE Midcap

BSE Smallcap

Nifty N

ext 50

Nifty M

idcap 100

-0.08

-0.07

-0.06

-0.05

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0.00 Auto

Bank

Services

FMC

G

Pharma

IT Metal

Energy

Consum

ption

Realty

-0.04

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0.00

0.01

0.02

Nasdaq

Dow

Jones

S&P 50

0

Nikkei

Hang Sang

Sanghai Com

p

FTSE 100

CA

C 40

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

CH

OLA

MA

ND

ALA

M

INV

ESTMEN

T AN

D

AJA

NTA

PHA

RMA

LTD

GM

R INFRA

STRUC

TURE

LTD

CRO

MPTO

N G

REAV

ES C

ON

SUM

ER EL

BERGER PA

INTS IN

DIA

LTD

IDBI BA

NK

LTD

ENG

INEERS IN

DIA

LTD

IND

IAN

BAN

K

DEW

AN

HO

USIN

G

FINA

NC

E CO

RP

IND

IABU

LLS VEN

TURES

LTD

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

TATA

CO

NSU

LTAN

CY

SVC

S LTD

BHA

RTI AIRTEL LTD

ASIA

N PA

INTS LTD

HC

L TECH

NO

LOG

IES LTD

HIN

DU

STAN

UN

ILEVER

LTD

GRA

SIM IN

DU

STRIES LTD

TATA

MO

TORS LTD

VED

AN

TA LTD

ZEE ENTERTA

INM

ENT

ENTERPRISE

IND

IABU

LLS HO

USIN

G

FINA

NC

E L

-2000.00

-1500.00

-1000.00

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

26-07-19 29-07-19 30-07-19 31-07-19 01-08-19

FII/FPI DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Dr. Reddy Labs Ltd CMP Rs.2529Target Price Rs.3148Upside 24.5%

Investment Rationale

• FY2018 onwards, the company has been totally focused on eliminating needless layers and unnecessary costs. Changing dynamics of the generics markets and cost competitiveness will continue to be a key driver.

• In FY2019, cost optimization initiatives enabled the company to improve profitability. Multi-year initiatives are now in place to drive cost and procurement efficiencies; to optimize R&D spends and productivity and to improve manpower throughput by delivering and eliminating needless overlaps.

• To create a profitable and sustainable model, the company has sold its antibiotic formulations facility in Bristol, US, its API manufacturing. Business unit at Jeedimetla, Hyderabad and the rights to distribute and market the specialty derma brands portfolio.

• On the regulatory front, all plants have clearance except Srikakulam API plant.

• The company plans to launch more than 30 products in FY20E in the US markets. Company has been able to ramp-up in gSubaxone sales since its re-launch. Recent launch of Ramelton is also an interesting product with three players

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 5.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 2695/1873

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $Bn) 420/6044

EPS (Rs.) 149.9

P/E Ratio (times) (FY21E) 17.2

Dividend Yield (%) -

Stock Exchange NSE

P/E CHARTValuation

We downgrade our Revenues for FY20E/FY21E by 3.4%/1.8% on account of downgrade in US, PSAI and Proprietary business. We upgrade our EBITDAM by 340 bps/70 bps to 24.5%/22.5% for FY20E/FY21E due to Celegene settlement income and receipt of USD 70 Mn upfront payment on sale of derma business. We upgrade our EPS estimates for FY20E by 7.2%/3.5% to Rs. 145.6/Rs 149.9 for FY 20E/21E. We upgrade our price target to Rs. 3148 based on 21x FY21E and maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 153,851 168,636 192,247

EBITDA 33,288 41,310 43,343

EBITDA(%) 21.6 24.5 22.5

PAT 18,795 24,162 24,890

EPS (Rs.) 113.2 145.6 149.9

RoE (%) 14.1 16.0 14.5

PE (x) 13.1 17.1 16.8

27%

30% 9%

34% Promoters

FII

DII

Others 2,000

2,300

2,600

2,900

3,200

33,500

35,500

37,500

39,500

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19

Sensex (LHS) DRL (RHS)

59%

5%

26%

10% Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others 60

80

100

120

140

160

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19

Kalpataru Power Transm. Ltd Sensex

27%

30% 9%

34% Promoters

FII

DII

Others 2,000

2,300

2,600

2,900

3,200

33,500

35,500

37,500

39,500

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19


59%

5%

26%

10% Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others 60

80

100

120

140

160

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19



BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd. CMP Rs.464Target Price Rs.591Upside 27%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 2.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 555/267

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 71190/1020

EPS (Rs.) 26.2

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 13.5

Dividend Yield (%) 0.6

Stock Exchange BSE

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 71151 83001 93834

EBITDA 7782 9118 10384

EBITDA(%) 10.9 11.0 11.1

PAT 4013 4573 5282

EPS(Rs.) 26.2 29.8 34.4

RoE (%) 12.7 12.8 13.2

PE (x) 18.0 15.6 13.5

Investment Rationale

• KPTIL is a part of Kalpataru group that was established in 1969 with proven experience and expertise spanning over three decades. It has established its footprints in more than 50 countries.

• The order book in last three financial years has seen tremendous growth of 29%. The current order book of Rs.147450 Mn stands at 2.1x the revenues which provide a very strong revenue visibility of 15% CAGR during FY19-21E.

• The non T&D order book is at Rs. 69302 Mn and is footing at 47% of total order book and it is expected to spurt by 40-50% for FY20 on the back of faster execution of strong order book. The railway margins now stand improved in the range of 8-9%. We expect the non T&D business to contribute 40% by FY21.

• The current T&D order book of Rs. 78149 Mn contributes around 53% of total order book. The management expects the new orders from Green Energy Corridor (GEC) to boost the order inflows in the coming quarters. The company after unsuccessful attempt for bidding GEC orders as a developer will now be focusing on EPC projects of the same GEC orders. We expect the T&D revenues to grow at 10% CAGR during FY19-20E with strong execution of T&D projects.

• Company has entered into a definitive agreement with CLP India to sell its 3 three transmission assets for an enterprise value of Rs. 32750 Mn. The sale proceeds are expected to be utilized by reducing the debt and capex for future growth.

Valuation

Given the strong order book across segments, we expect the revenues to grow at 15% CAGR during FY19-20E. We value Kalpataru on SOTP basis with standalone business at 14x to FY21E EPS, JMC by giving discount to market cap, SSL on book value, and Indore real estate project on B/V. We arrive at a target price of Rs. 591 for a “BUY” rating representing an upside potential of 25%.

27%

30% 9%

34% Promoters

FII

DII

Others 2,000

2,300

2,600

2,900

3,200

33,500

35,500

37,500

39,500

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19


59%

5%

26%

10% Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others 60

80

100

120

140

160

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19


27%

30% 9%

34% Promoters

FII

DII

Others 2,000

2,300

2,600

2,900

3,200

33,500

35,500

37,500

39,500

Aug

-18

Oct

-18

Dec

-18

Feb-

19

Apr

-19

Jun-

19

Aug

-19


59%

5%

26%

10% Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others 60

80

100

120

140

160

Jul-

18

Aug

-18

Sep-

18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr

-19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-

19



EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Dabur India Ltd

Dabur India Ltd. is one of India’s leading FMCG Companies with Revenues of over Rs. 8,500 crore & Market Capitalisation of over Rs. 72,500 crore. Dabur today operates in key consumer product categories like Hair Care, Oral Care, Health Care, Skin Care, Home Care and Foods. The ayurvedic company has a wide distribution network, covering 6.7 million retail outlets with a high penetration in both urban and rural markets. DABUR has rallied from 219 to 490.65 on monthly chart and has corrected to 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of the said rally i.e. around 355 and bounced back from there to close near 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels indicating end of the correction and a possible fresh leg of rally from these levels. The stock was unfazed by the recent sell off in the broader markets indicating bullishness in the counter. Adding to it, Heiken candlesticks and parabolic SAR is signalling positive trend on the weekly charts reflecting the stock is well placed to move higher in the coming days. 14 periods RSI is trading above the 9 period averages on daily chart as well as weekly charts indicating positive momentum. The stock is trading well above all of its major moving averages on daily as well as weekly charts indicating strong positive momentum in the counter for all major time frames. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock around 415-420 levels for the potential upside targets of 502-518 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 355 levels.

Asian Paints

Asian Paints – The third largest paint company in Asia founded in the year 1942. Its main businesses are manufacturing, selling and distribution of paints, coatings, products related to home decor, bath fittings and related services. Company operates in 16 countries with 27 manufacturing facilities all over the word. It serves customers of 65 countries through the distribution channel. The company is leading the Indian market since 1967. Technically, stock is in secular uptrend making higher highs and higher lows from past few weeks. The stock is trading above all the major moving i.e. 21/55/100/200/500 on daily, weekly and monthly charts. A positive moving average crossover has been seen in the stock on daily charts indicating an upside movement in the stock. Recently, stock has bounced well from the support zone of 1290-1300 levels and moving northwards indicating inherent strength in the counter. Previously, stock had respected the 100 EMA on weekly chart and bounced well after a correction. After that stock was trading with a positive bias and recently closed above the resistance of 1530 levels. Stock is in uptrend and has the potential to move towards 1770 levels in the near term. On the oscillator front, MACD (12, 26, 9) is trading northward above the zero line on weekly charts indicating the inbuilt strength in the counter. At the current levels, stock is giving an excellent opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock around 1540 levels for the potential upside target of 1730 followed by 1770 levels over the next 5-6 months, keeping a stop loss below 1390 levels.

STOCK DABUR

CMP 426.50

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 415-420

AVERAGE 365

STOP LOSS 355

TARGET 1 501

TARGET 2 518

TIME FRAME 6-9 MONTHS

STOCK ASIANPAINT

CMP 1545.20

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 1540

AVERAGE 1420

STOP LOSS 1390

TARGET 1 1730

TARGET 2 1770

TIME FRAME 5-6 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Initiation 122

Stop Loss 131

Target 111

Lot Size 3200

Margin 96367

21-DEMA 137

Open Interest Shares 35942400

Change in OI 3472000

Cost of Carry (%) 8.49

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY IT (15,422.10) has traded on a sideways note and settled with gains of nearly half a percent on weekly closing basis. On the stock front, TCS 4.55%, MINDTREE 2.04%, HCLTECH 0.59% & WIPRO 0.02% managed to close on a flat to positive note while stocks like TECHM -1.04%, OFSS -1.31%, INFY -1.52%, INFIBEAM -3.62%, TATAELXSI -3.7% & NIITTECH -5.46% underperformed on a weekly closing basis. Technically, index consolidated above its major 200-DEMA which is currently placed near 15365 levels and hovering near it while finding resistance to move and sustain above its 21-DEMA placed near 15227 levels. On the momentum oscillator front, 14-pd weekly RSI found support near 40-levels and turning sideways indicating possibility of further consolidation in the index in the sessions to come. On the downside, index has an immediate support near 15200 followed by 15000 levels while on the higher side, 15600 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 15700 levels. Going forward, index on sustaining above 15200 levels is likely to trade with mixed bias between 15200-15600 levels; breakout on either side will trigger further momentum of 150-200 points.

NIFTY FMCG (28,930.75) has ended the week with a negative return of around 0.8% outperforming the benchmark index Nifty which closed with losses of around 2.5%. Technically, NIFTY FMCG index is placed below all its major moving averages on the daily chart and below the short to medium term moving averages on the weekly chart for the fourth straight week. The index is placed below its parabolic SAR on the daily as well as weekly chart indicating sluggishness in the index. The stocks which have outperformed the NIFTY FMCG index during the week were MARICO, TATAGLOBAL, COLPAL, UBL, GSKCONS and HINDUNILVR while JUBLFOOD, BRITANNIA, ITC, EMAMILTD, MCDOWELL-N and GODREJIND underperformed the index. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14-period RSI is placed below its 9-period signal line on the daily as well as weekly chart, reflecting the index may trade with weak bias in the coming trading sessions. Going ahead, the index is expected to trade with sideways to negative bias. The support for the NIFTY FMCG index is pegged around 28600 followed by 28400 levels while on the higher side, the index may face resistance around 29300 followed by 29500 levels.

NIFTY BANK (28,204.95) has underperformed the Nifty with a loss of 3.82% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty lost by 2.54%. During the last week, the index moved with a downward bias after breaking the crucial support at 29447 levels in the prior week. Technically, the index broke the uptrend starting from the swing low at 24250 levels to the recent all-time high at 31783 levels after it broke the higher low at 28525 levels. For the week ahead, the index may trade with a bearish bias until and unless 28525 levels are taken off from downside. On the news front, Punjab National Bank is looking to reduce its gross non-performing loans at under 12% this year with better recoveries. In the quarter to June, gross NPAs of the bank came down to 16.49% at Rs. 77,000 crore from 18.26% or Rs. 82,889 crore. In FY19, recoveries of the bank stood at Rs. 20,000 crore which included Rs. 2,100 crore through a one-time settlement scheme. The bank also managed to arrest fresh slippages at Rs. 4,711 crore in the June quarter from Rs. 5,250 crore. The lender will continue to focus on retail loans which accounts for 54% of its total loan book. On the stock front, all the stocks in the index closed in red during the week. RBLBANK, SBIN, FEDERALBNK and YESBANK lost by 11.15%, 10.10%, 8.18% and 8.17% respectively. As indicated by the derivatives data, BankNifty may face resistance at 28500 followed by 29000 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 28000 followed by 27500 levels.

NIFTY METAL (2,459.10 ) has closed in red by around 8.5% underperforming the benchmark index Nifty which lost around 2.52% on weekly basis. Technically, the index is holding below its 21/50/100/200 day EMA levels on daily chart. Other indicators parabolic SAR suggest a negative trend in the index. On daily charts, the index has tested the lower band in Bollinger bands and the bands are expanding. The index is sustaining below a runaway gap on the daily chart. ADX suggest strengthening negative trend in the index and 14 day RSI is trading at 25.30 with a negative crossover. Among the index stocks like APLAPOLLO, COALINDIA, HINDALCO, HINDCOPPER, JSLHISAR, TATASTEEL, JSWSTEEL, JINDALSTEL, NMDC, HINDZINC, NATIONALUM, VEDL, MOIL and SAIL closed in red while WELCORP is the only stock that closed in green. Going forward, the supports for the index are placed around 2430 levels and below it at 2362 zone, any breach below the level could aggravate selling pressure in the counter while resistance is placed around 2510 levels and above that around 2590 levels suggesting possibility of huge supply at these levels.

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK: BUY KOTAKBANK (AUG FUTURE) | CMP: 1508.75 SECTOR: BANKING

KOTAKBANK is our preferable bet from private banking and comes under trader and investors friendly stocks. The stock is consolidating near its support of 1480-1525 levels. The stock has outperformed Bank Nifty last week and closed the week with a flat tone and generated a negative return of 0.28%. Whereas, Bank Nifty has closed the week with a negative return of 3.82%. The recent consolidation range in the stock has seen supportive volume formation in the counter. The historical price action in the stock reflects that any meaningful dip in the stock may attract market participants. This helps stock to resume its up move. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northwards given positive crossover with signal line and trading comfortable above signal line. The recent development in the stock suggests that the up move in the stock will remain intact. Hence, we recommend Smart Traders to buy the stock for upside target of 1600 levels with a stop loss placed below 1425 levels.

Sentiment

Initiation 1500

Stop Loss 1425

Target 1600

Lot Size 400

Margin 106975

21-DEMA 1498

Open Interest Shares 9234400

Change in OI 1138000

Cost of Carry (%) 1.03

JINDAL STEEL LIMITED: SELL JINDALSTEL (AUG FUTURE) | CMP: 120.20 SECTOR: METALS

JINDALSTEL has given price breakdown around 123 levels and trading well below the same. The stock has closed the week with a negative return of 8.67% and outperformed Nifty Metal. The recent fall from the high of 149 levels has seen supportive volume formation. The stock is trading below all its major moving averages on daily charts indicating weakness in the counter. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing southward given negative crossover with signal line and trading comfortable below signal line. The parabolic SAR is trading above the price action on weekly charts which indicates downtrend in the stock will remain intact. The recent development in the stock suggests that the stock will remain under pressure in near term. Hence, we suggets Smart Traders to sell the stock for downside target of 111 levels with a stop loss placed above 131 levels.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (10997.35): Nifty continued its downward spiral movement for the week and ended on a negative note with a cut of more than 2.50%. Huge intraday volatility crept into Nifty throughout the week with first half of the week witnessing unidirectional down move and slipped more than 300 points since previous week’s close. However, on Thursday, the weekly options expiry day and Friday, Nifty slipped further towards 10850 but last hour pullbacks helped Nifty to close around 11000 zone. Lacklustre numbers from companies have kept positive sentiments under check. Foreign players continued their selling spree and sold on all trading days to the tune of whopping Rs. 6790 crore. On the flip side, our domestic participants managed to counter the FII’s selling and bought equity securities worth Rs. 8284.68 crore. Going forward, as we approach towards the fag end of the results season, stock specific action will pick up and the key commentary from MPC and RBI monetary policy amid slowdown in economy will play a very crucial role in deciding the near term trend of our markets. Around 40 derivative space listed companies will announce their Q1 numbers and prominent one are Indian Bank, SRF, Pidilitind, Titan, Rec Ltd, Auropharma, CIPLA, HCLTECH, Lupin, M&M, Siemens, Indiacem, Hexaware, Voltas, NBCC, MGL, Tatachem, BHEL, BPCL, Britannina, NCC, Suntv, and Divis Lab. Technically, Nifty is sustaining well below its major long term moving averages and reeling under pressure even in oversold zone. With crucial week ahead, derivatives markers for Nifty placed at 10800 to 10900 on the lower side, and 11100 and 11200 levels on the higher end. Going forward, we expect Nifty to trade in the range of 10800 to 11200 with negative bias in the coming week.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE: SHORT STRANGLE IN NIFTY

FIRST LEG Sell one lot of NIFTY 08 AUG 11200 CE @ 26

SECOND LEG Sell one lot of NIFTY 08 AUG 10800 PE @ 27

UBEP 11253.00

LBEP 10747.00

MAX PROFIT 3,975.00

MAX LOSS Unlimited beyond UBEP'S & LBEP'S

STOP LOSS Above and below the UBEP'S & LBEP'S

RATIONALE The index is expected to trade in the range of 10800 - 11200 in the near term.

TYPE: BEAR PUT IN VEDL

FIRST LEG Buy 1 Lot of VEDL AUGUST 140 PE @ 4.50

SECOND LEG Sell 1 Lot of VEDL AUGUST 130 PE @ 2.25

BEP 137.75

MAX PROFIT 23250

MAX LOSS 6750

RATIONALEVEDL has lost more than 13% in the previous week and has given a fresh breakdown of trading range with huge volumes indicating possible start of fresh leg of down move. Ongoing trade war impact along with slow down in China is hurting metal space. The stock has clocked fresh 52 wk lows along with oscillators nowhere near over sold region. Hence, bearish view for near term.

TYPE: CALL RATIO SPREAD IN BANK NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of BANKNIFTY 08 AUG 28200 @ 315

SECOND LEG Sell two lot of BANKNIFTY 08 AUG 28700 @ 105

UBEP 29095.00

LBEP 28305.00

MAX PROFIT 8,100

STG OUTFLOW 2,100

MAX LOSS Unlimited beyond UBEP'S

RATIONALE The index is expected to trade with mildly bullish bias.

TYPE: BUY CALL IN ADANIENT

FIRST LEG Buy ADANIENT August 130 CE @ 7.50

BEP 137.50

MAX PROFIT Unlimited

MAX LOSS 30000

STOP LOSS 4.50 (option levels)

RATIONALE The stock is outperforming its broader index over last four days and is consolidating in the unfilled gap up zone. The stock has gained more than 2% in previous session and closed the trade at the highest point of trade. Its derivative activity suggests short covering in the counter. Hence, bullish view for near term.

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2780

0.0

0

2790

0.0

0

280

00

.00

2810

0.0

0

2820

0.0

0

2830

0.0

0

2840

0.0

0

2850

0.0

0

2860

0.0

0

2870

0.0

0

2880

0.0

0

2890

0.0

0

290

00

.00

2910

0.0

0

2920

0.0

0

2930

0.0

0

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

105

107

109 111

113

115

117

119

121

123

125

127

129

131

133

135

137

139

141

143

145

147

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

140

142

144

146

148

150

152

154

156

158

160

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2780

0.0

0

2790

0.0

0

280

00

.00

2810

0.0

0

2820

0.0

0

2830

0.0

0

2840

0.0

0

2850

0.0

0

2860

0.0

0

2870

0.0

0

2880

0.0

0

2890

0.0

0

290

00

.00

2910

0.0

0

2920

0.0

0

2930

0.0

0

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

105

107

109 111

113

115

117

119

121

123

125

127

129

131

133

135

137

139

141

143

145

147

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

140

142

144

146

148

150

152

154

156

158

160

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2780

0.0

0

2790

0.0

0

280

00

.00

2810

0.0

0

2820

0.0

0

2830

0.0

0

2840

0.0

0

2850

0.0

0

2860

0.0

0

2870

0.0

0

2880

0.0

0

2890

0.0

0

290

00

.00

2910

0.0

0

2920

0.0

0

2930

0.0

0

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

105

107

109 111

113

115

117

119

121

123

125

127

129

131

133

135

137

139

141

143

145

147

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

140

142

144

146

148

150

152

154

156

158

160

-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2780

0.0

0

2790

0.0

0

280

00

.00

2810

0.0

0

2820

0.0

0

2830

0.0

0

2840

0.0

0

2850

0.0

0

2860

0.0

0

2870

0.0

0

2880

0.0

0

2890

0.0

0

290

00

.00

2910

0.0

0

2920

0.0

0

2930

0.0

0

-40000

-30000

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

105

107

109 111

113

115

117

119

121

123

125

127

129

131

133

135

137

139

141

143

145

147

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

120

122

124

126

128

130

132

134

136

138

140

142

144

146

148

150

152

154

156

158

160

7KSTREET - 03RD AUGUST 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

VOLTAS 611.55 4.91 4802000 53.32

CHOLAFIN 266.6 8.62 3755000 37.42

STAR 392.65 11.04 3825600 35.78

UJJIVAN 284.4 4.31 6476800 31.13

MARICO 372.65 3.21 10452000 25.59

TATAGLOBAL 265.6 2.81 7279200 22.88

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


GMRINFRA 15.1 3.07 143865000 -13.03

MUTHOOTFIN 621.3 5.11 2424000 -15.66

BERGEPAINT 334.4 1.98 1982200 -12.10

SRTRANSFIN 978.45 0.24 4647000 -9.10

HCLTECH 1010.5 0.90 8740200 -5.96

M&MFIN 301.7 1.67 14446250 -4.83

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


SIEMENS 1115.05 -6.01 1406900 41.01

TVSMOTOR 372.30 -0.94 7973900 33.43

MRF 53869.55 -0.86 31490 31.26

RBLBANK 407.45 -10.76 12343200 30.73

BSOFT 72.35 -3.53 2939100 29.13

SBIN 308.45 -9.97 89730000 29.11

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


NIITTECH 1198.70 -5.90 1052250 -21.53

APOLLOHOSP 1310.20 -3.88 1130500 -20.05

SRF 2632.70 -3.83 926750 -15.11

BAJFINANCE 3237.90 -0.82 6543750 -13.46

KAJARIACER 467.50 -2.55 2046800 -12.36

RECLTD 134.55 -5.25 27288000 -10.68

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

0

5

10

15

20

25

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 1-Aug 2-Aug

Thou

sand

s

Index Fut. OI Index Fut. Net Buy

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480

1500


Thou

sand

s

Stock Fut. OI Stock Fut. Net Buy

0

5

10

15

20

25

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

170

180

190

200

210

220

230


Thou

sand

s


-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480

1500


Thou

sand

s Stock Fut. OI Stock Fut. Net Buy

0

5

10

15

20

25

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

170

180

190

200

210

220

230


Thou

sand

s


-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480

1500


Thou

sand

s


0

5

10

15

20

25

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

170

180

190

200

210

220

230


Thou

sand

s


-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480

1500


Thou

sand

s


0

5

10

15

20

25

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

170

180

190

200

210

220

230


Thou

sand

s


-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480

1500


Thou

sand

s


0

5

10

15

20

25

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1050

0

1060

0

1070

0

1080

0

1090

0

110

00

1110

0

1120

0

1130

0

1140

0

1150

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2770

0

2780

0

2790

0

280

00

2810

0

2820

0

2830

0

2840

0

2850

0

2860

0

2870

0

Call Put

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

170

180

190

200

210

220

230


Thou

sand

s


-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

1440

1460

1480

1500


Thou

sand

s



COMMODITIES

BULLIONWorld bullion market had witnessed a volatile trend in the week ended on 2nd August, 2019 wherein the market ended on a positive note during first two trading sessions on safe haven asset buying amidst stronger dollar. Trade participation was muted at the beginning of the week as the market participants were waiting for US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting outcome scheduled on 31st July, 2019. Since the beginning of July month, there were talks on cutting interest rate by US central bank which was endorsed by its Chairman as well as other members on multiple occasions. As expected, the US central bank slashed its federal fund rates by 25 basis points for the first time since economic recession in 2008-09. Apart from US, Bank of Japan also said that it would not hesitate to act appropriately if the situation warrants for its intervention. Normally, interest rate cut would be positive for the bullion. But the market reacted negatively as the market had discounted 25 basis point cut. Next day to the interest rate cut decision, CME gold futures staged a strong rally as the global equity market tumbled to multi-month lows. During the week, World Gold Council has released is 2nd quarter report wherein it said that gold demand was 1,123 tons in Q2 up 8% YoY. H1 demand jumped to a three-year high of 2,181.7 tons, largely due to record-breaking central bank purchases. Apart from central bank decision, market is waiting for release of non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data on Friday. On domestic front, MCX gold futures for October delivery rallied to hit fresh all time high of Rs. 36067 per 10 gms tracking stronger international market. Indian rupee depreciated against US dollar by 1.03% to end the week at Rs. 69.59 per dollar and this also supported the rally in Indian market.

ENERGYCrude oil prices witnessed the steepest fall since 3 years on Thursday after US President Donald Trump imposed additional tariff on Chinese goods which is further expected to intensify the trade war between two economic giants. Although prices started the week on a positive note amid awaiting decision of FED regarding interest rate cut which was expected to result in better growth outlook. Separately, EIA in its monthly report said that US crude oil output declined 26,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May to 12.11 million bpd. The agency also revised its estimate for April oil production down by 28,000 bpd to a monthly record of 12.13 million bpd. As per EIA weekly inventory reports, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 10.8 million barrels from the previous week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are at the five year average for this time of year. US energy firms reduced the number of oil rigs operating for a fourth week in a row, putting the rig count down for the eighth consecutive month as producers follow through on plans to cut spending on new drilling and completions. As per Baker Hughes, US drillers cut three oil rigs in the week to July 26, bringing the total count down to 776, the lowest since February 2018. As per Reuters survey report, OPEC oil output hit an eight-year low in July as a further voluntary cut by top exporter Saudi Arabia deepened losses caused by US sanctions on Iran and outages elsewhere in the group. The OPEC pumped 29.42 million barrels per day (bpd) this month down 280,000 bpd from June’s revised figure and the lowest OPEC total since 2011. Within OPEC, Venezuela’s oil exports fell 17.5% in July to their second-lowest level since Washington imposed sanctions on the nation as state-run PDVSA finds fewer customers to take its oil. Iraqi oil exports rose to 3.566 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from 3.52 million bpd the previous month.

METALSMetals started the week on a mixed note and amid the expectations of Fed rate cuts made highs and later in the week witnessed a huge fall amid the stronger dollar and Trump’s comments on imposing 10% tariffs on $300 Bn worth Chinese goods. After removal of sanctions, Russian Rusal posted its 20.8% rise in sales during the second quarter of 2019. The production levels remained normal and up 1% on a quarterly basis standing at 0.938 million tonnes. Sales were at 1.082 million tonnes up on a quarterly basis. Sales of value-added products rose by 59.9% on the quarter due to a planned gradual recovery in the overall sales mix. Imports of copper cathode from China fell for a second straight month in June from May to 212,328 tons a 12.36% fall, showed the data from China customs released over the weekend. On a yearly basis, imports in June decreased by 30.8% from a year ago compared to a drop of 29.2% in May. With Chinese government taking measure to curb the environmental pollution by clipping the expansion of foundries, zinc prices is to find support in the near term. Automobile sales at China are likely to fall to 26.68 million units in 2019 a 5% fall, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) which is lower than its previous forecast of 28 million units. Sales estimation of passenger vehicles is at 22.44 million units down 5.4% and those of commercial vehicles at 4.24 million units, off 3% both in the year. On the whole, slackness in demand shall support the downside trend and any recovery must be used to sell. Tracking the fall in June exports of aluminium foil from China to 115,900 tons against 125,000 tons of aluminum foil in May, prices shall find its negative bias intact. Production of crude steel during Jan – Jun 2019

from China stood at 492 million tons which is 9.9% up compared to Jan – Jun 2018. Rise in consumption shall give support to the prices in the near term for Zinc. China’s exports of aluminium extrusions, bars and rods shrank 8.6% from May to stand at 88,100 tons in June on a stronger Chinese yuan and higher SHFE/LME aluminium price ratios, showed SMM calculation based on the latest customs data. Imports of stainless steel were down by 32% during July 2019 compared to June standing at 47,600 tons. Nearly 291,300 tons of Indonesian stainless steel entered China in January-June, down 60.96% on a yearly basis. Imports are expected to fall further as China’s Ministry of Commerce on July 23 imposed anti-dumping tariffs of 18.1% to 103.1% on stainless steel billets and hot-rolled stainless steel plates from the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia.

COTTONDomestic cotton futures traded on weaker note for most part of the week ended on 2nd August on improved sowing activities across India. Forecast of favourable weather condition in central and southern region and tepid demand from millers weighed on the cotton prices during the week. Total area under cotton across India were reported at 109 lakh hectares till 25th July compared to 102.5 lakh hectares of prior year for corresponding period higher by 5% y/y. Moreover, sluggish yarn export from India also impacted market sentiments negatively during the week. India’s cotton yarn exports during first quarter of financial year 2019-20 was 33% lower compared to the same period last year. The Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council (Texprocil) showed cotton yarn exports from April to June 2019 were 226 million kg as against 338 million kg during the same period last year. In June, the exports were just 59 million kg, which is 50.74% less compared to June 2018. Similarly, ICE cotton futures traded down on unfruitful trade talk between US and China. Furthermore, intensifying trade dispute after announcement of additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods by US kept prices down. USDA release weekly export sales data for the week ending 25th July showed net sales of 10,200 RB for 2018-19 were down 94% from the previous week and 90% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (8,000 RB), India (7,300 RB), Pakistan (4,100 RB), Malaysia (2,100 RB) and Mexico (1,900 RB). Exports of 6,700 RB were down 17% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average. Likewise, improved crop condition in US also pressurized prices during the week as USDA rated 61% of cotton crop in US under good to excellent condition compared to 60% of prior week and 43% of prior year for corresponding period.

SOYBEAN Soybean futures traded mixed to lower for most part of the week due to tepid domestic demand at major trading centers. Moreover, weighing on the prices was the improved sowing progress in major soybean growing states in India. Forecast of favourable weather condition in central region prompted stockiest to release their stocks keeping prices under pressure. At sowing front, total area under soybean were reported at 97.14 lakh hectares till end of 26th July compared to 101.5 lakh hectares of prior year. Moreover, weakness in prices of soybean in global market driven by bleak demand outlook also weighed on the prices during the week. Total arrival of soybean in year 2018-19 till end of June were reported at 89 lakh tons compared to 75 lakh tons of prior year as per the data revealed to Soybean Processors association of India. At global front, CBOT soybean prices slumped on improved crop condition amid tumbling exports. UDSA weekly export sales data for the week ending 25th July showed net sales 143,100 MT for 2018-19 resulting in increases for Japan (67,800 MT), China (66,800 MT), Mexico (61,800 MT), Egypt (58,800 MT and Saudi Arabia (55,000 MT). Exports of 921,300 MT were up 45% from the previous week and 24% from the prior 4-week average.

GUARGuar seed and gum futures were traded on a higher note during the week ended on 2nd August, 2019 due to improved demand in the market tracking bullish fundamental outlook such as investors were buying at a prevailing level due to higher demand in the major physical market which led to the rise in prices. However, the fall in gum/seed ratio to 2.01 to 2.02 in second consecutive week had indicated low demand for gum for the export and industries purpose. According to the sowing data released by the Ministry of Agriculture Govt. of Rajasthan, the farmers have planted 1348 lakh hectare Moong as on 31st July, 2019 compared to 1683.3 lakh hectare planted in the same period a year ago and Bajra acreage stood at 2962.9 lakh hectare as on 26th July 2019 against 3484.5 lakh hectare planted in the same period last year. As on 1st Aug, farmers had planted 1451.5 lakh hectare against 2612.3 lakh hectare. As per the IMD forecast, heavy rainfall will happen during the week in the northwest region of Rajasthan and cover many of Haryana. Thus the southwest monsoon had further advanced into remaining parts of west Rajasthan and hence covered the entire country during the week against its normal date 31st July. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has also reported that monsoon rainfall in August and September would be at 100% LPA which will enhance guar seed acreage.


COMMODITIES

LEAD

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 26-Jul 2-Aug % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 34773.0 35470.0 2.0% 35588.00 -0.33% 29268.00 21.19%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 41152.0 41303.0 0.4% 41825.00 -1.25% 34981.00 18.07%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3869.0 3880.0 0.3% 5669.00 -31.56% 2993.00 29.64%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 150.8 148.1 -1.8% 358.70 -58.71% 145.50 1.79%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 444.6 433.0 -2.6% 469.35 -7.74% 397.40 8.96%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 158.6 150.7 -5.0% 168.00 -10.30% 123.80 21.73%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 190.3 188.2 -1.1% 233.65 -19.47% 163.80 14.87%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 995.3 1019.8 2.5% 1043.00 -2.22% 735.00 38.75%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 138.6 139.2 0.4% 167.80 -17.07% 124.75 11.54%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3616.0 3584.0 -0.9% 3915.00 -8.45% 3149.00 13.81%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 739.3 736.4 -0.4% 784.00 -6.07% 713.60 3.20%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3942.0 3909.0 -0.8% 4244.00 -7.89% 3711.00 5.34%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 509.9 519.0 1.8% 609.80 -14.89% 483.40 7.36%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5554.0 5592.0 0.7% 6300.00 -11.24% 4512.00 23.94%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6930.0 6586.0 -5.0% 7360.00 -10.52% 5870.00 12.20%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 17870.0 17090.0 -4.4% 21000.00 -18.62% 15140.00 12.88%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 6365.0 6405.0 0.6% 7688.00 -16.69% 4507.00 42.11%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 3405.2 4113.2 20.8% 4113.20 0.00% 1060.00 288.04%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2075.0 2073.0 -0.1% 2162.00 -4.12% 1770.00 17.12%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4180.0 4282.0 2.4% 4869.50 -12.06% 4074.00 5.11%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 8349.0 8443.0 1.1% 10510.00 -19.67% 8070.00 4.62%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 21050.0 20060.0 -4.7% 24280.00 -17.38% 19950.00 0.55%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 3173.0 3303.0 4.1% 3380.00 -2.28% 1595.50 107.02%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1251.5 1271.0 1.6% 1846.10 -31.15% 1176.00 8.08%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

GOLD

CRUDE OIL

LME Lead 3M forwards are hovering around $1956/Mt down by +5% from the previous week’s closing price of $2075. Prices are trading near the weekly 13EMA support levels of $1950. At present, the momentum indicators like RSI-14 and William R% have approached the oversold zone. Thus in the beginning of the next week, we might see pullbacks, then fall is expected. Weekly resistances are seen around $2010-2015 and key resistance is seen around $2070 levels. Lower side supports are seen around $1900-1910 levels. MCX lead August contract futures are trading around Rs. 151.50/kg, bearish trend is in progress; lower side support is seen around Rs. 145-146. We recommend selling on rise around 155-156 with a stop loss above 160.Recommendations: Lead August MCX: Sell at 155-156 TP 145 SL 160

Gold Spot prices are hovering around $1433/ounce. Prices are trading within a confined range of $1385-1355 since last several sessions. During the same period, momentum indicators (RSI-14, William R %) have corrected from overbought zone to normal zone. Still prices are hovering above the weekly and daily EMA support levels. Therefore, we are expecting gold prices to move higher in the coming week and we recommend building long positions from lower levels. Recommendations: Gold Oct MCX: Buy at 35750-35800 TP 36350 SL 35500

As on 2nd August, 2019 crude oil October contract futures are hovering around $55.00/barrel, down by $1.50 from the previous week’s closing price of $56.20. At present, prices are hovering below the long term falling trend line and also below the weekly EMA support levels of $56.50 levels. Weekly and daily indicators are hovering around at a neutral zone. Therefore, we recommend selling on rise.Recommendations: Crude Oil August MCX: Sell at 3900-3910 TP 3750 SL 3960


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• Gold prices on Friday touched a record high of Rs. 36,327 per ten grams in the domestic markets as speculators widened their bets, tracking a firm trend overseas. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold for delivery in August contracts traded higher by Rs. 216 or 0.62% to Rs. 35,132 per 10 gram in a business turnover of 3,459 lots.

• Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may cut prices for most of the crude grades it sells to Asia for a second straight month in September after Middle East benchmark prices weakened. The official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light crude could drop by at least 50 cents a barrel, falling below a premium of $2 a barrel for the first time in four months, a Reuter’s survey of five buyers in Asia showed.

• Aluminium prices hit their lowest in about a month overnight on fears of weak consumption after the world’s biggest steelmaker cut its global demand forecast and Chinese data showed shrinking factory activity. Top steelmaker ArcelorMittal cut its estimate for global steel demand growth to between 0.5% and 1.5% in 2019 from a previous forecast of 1%-1.5%.

• Despite June 2019 ending upto two-thirds drier than normal, heavy rainfall in July brought the seasonal performance upto 91%. Further, the IMD predicts that the second half of the monsoon (August-September) is quantitatively likely to be 100% of the long period average.

• Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-25 fell 2.0% to 1,150,972 tonnes from 1,174,292 tonnes shipped during June 1-25, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said on Thursday (Source- Reuters)

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• According to ICAC’s assessment, prices will remain under pressure as production is set to outpace consumption. Cotton prices are likely to slide further amid gloomy prospects for global consumption. Global cotton prices have already corrected by close to 26% in the past one year from 99.5 cents a pound in August 2018 to 74 cents in July 2019.

• Copper tumbled to its lowest in over three weeks after US President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 Bn of Chinese imports from next month. Trump said he could raise tariffs further if China fails to move more quickly to strike a trade deal, following a lack of progress at recent trade negotiations in China.

• Chicago soybean futures edged away from the prior session’s seven-week low on Friday but remained on track for a weekly loss as an escalation in a year-long trade dispute between the US and China weighed on the market.

• Nickel inventories in the Shanghai bonded areas extended their increases this week, as a wider import loss of 3,500 yuan/mt continued to deter outflows to domestic markets. Arrival of forward cargoes that were ordered when the arbitrage window was open also grew the bonded stocks.

145

147

149

151

153

155

157

159

161

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

19-Jul 23-Jul 25-Jul 29-Jul 31-Jul 2-Aug

Open Interest Volume Price (INR/MMBTU)

3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

4100

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

19-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul 25-Jul 26-Jul 29-Jul 30-Jul 31-Jul 1-Aug 2-Aug

Volume Open Interest Price (INR/Bbl)

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16


$/B

BL

-0.03

-0.02

-0.01

0

0.01

0.02

0.03


$/M

MB

tu


COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 26-Jul 02-Aug % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1806.50 1777.00 -1.63%

Copper LME 3M 5966.00 5865.00 -1.69%

Lead LME 3M 2075.00 1981.50 -4.51%

Nickel LME 3M 14135.00 14450.00 2.23%

Zinc LME 3M 2441.00 2396.50 -1.82%

Gold CME Aug 1418.50 1443.90 1.79%

Silver CME July 14.28 14.28 0.00%

WTI Crude oil CME June 56.16 54.49 -2.97%

Natural Gas CME June 2.17 2.17 -0.18%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 26-Jul 02-Aug % change

Soybean CBOT July 899.25 866.25 -3.67%

Soy oil CBOT July 27.98 27.98 0.00%

CPO BMD Aug 2027.00 2027.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE July 66.23 66.23 0.00%

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 292950 286600 -6350 -2.17%

Zinc 73675 78500 4825 6.55%

Aluminium 1016800 1024200 7400 0.73%

Lead 55475 85375 29900 53.90%

Nickel 143988 143658 -330 -0.23%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 149189 155971 6782 4.55%

Zinc 74984 75781 797 1.06%

Aluminium 396400 403660 7260 1.83%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 37674 38719 1045 2.77%

Gold supply and demand (MTs)

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q/Q Growth

Supply

Mine production 847.5 882.6 4.14%

Net producer hedging 2.2 -10.5 -568.28%

Recycled gold 287.4 314.6 9.45%

Total supply 1,137.2 1,186.7 4.35%

Demand

Fabrication

Jewellery 536.7 554.7 3.36%

Technology 80.0 81.1 1.38%

Sub-total above fabrication 616.8 635.9 3.10%

Total bar & coin demand 258.3 218.6 -15.37%

ETFs & similar products 40.3 67.2 66.72%

Central bank & other inst. 149.8 224.4 49.81%

Gold demand 1,065.2 1,146.1 7.60%

Surplus/Deficit 72.1 40.6 -43.60%

Total demand 1,137.2 1,186.7 4.35%

-10.13%

-7.21%

-7.04%

-6.03%

-5.09%

-4.59%

-2.61%

-2.28%

-1.07%

-0.99%

-0.58%

0.33%

0.36%

1.05%

1.34%

1.94%

2.12%

3.15%

3.29%

4.05%

5.50%

9.11%

14.37%

17.15%

43.61%

-20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00%

Natural Gas

Mentha Oil

Turmeric

Soybean

Soy Oil

Barley

Zinc

Castor Seed

Jeera

Aluminum

RM Seed

Dhaniya

Guar Gum

Lead

CPO

Guar Seed

Cardamom

Wheat

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Nickel

Copper

Cotton

Silver

Gold

Crude Oil


USD/INR

USDINR is trading at 69.58. During the week, it made a high of 69.66 and low of 68.66. The RSI is at 43.13. Moving average of 32 is at 69.81 and 55 is at 70.40. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 69.40 TP 70.00 SL 69.00

EUR/INR

EURINR is trading at 77.23. During the week, it made a high of 77.33 and low of 76.14. The RSI is trading at 41.33. Moving average of 32 is at 80.09 and 55 is at 80.06. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 77.10-77.00 TP 78.00 SL 76.60.

GBP/INR

GBPINR is trading at 84.36. During the week, it made a high of 86.29 and low of 83.31. The RSI is trading at 27.62. Moving average of 32 is at 89.64 and 55 is at 90.67. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 84.50 TP 83.50 SL 85.00.

JPY/INR

JPYINR is trading at 65.12. During the week, it made a high of 65.17 and low of 63.15. The RSI is at 49.26. Moving average of 32 is at 63.65 and 55 is at 63.56. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 65.00-64.80 TP 66.50 SL 64.40.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

USD/INR closed for the week at 69.58 after hitting weekly high of 69.67 and low of 68.69. Indian government is likely to put on hold a plan to raise the minimum public shareholding in listed companies to 35% from 25%, as per sources with direct knowledge of the matter. The government is also looking for ways to ease concerns of foreign portfolio investors that have pulled out of Indian equity markets after a budget announcement of higher taxes for individuals and trusts earning more than Rs. 20 Mn a year. Foreign investors turned net sellers in Indian markets in July as they pulled out more than Rs. 11,000 crore, highest in 2019. Growth of eight core Indian industries dropped to 0.2% in June mainly due to a contraction in oil-related sectors as well as in cement production. India’s fiscal deficit touched Rs. 4.32 lakh crore for the June quarter, which is 61.4% of the budget estimate for 2019-20 fiscal. Reserve Bank of India further liberalized the norms related to ECB by relaxing the end-use restrictions with regard to working capital, general corporate purpose and repayment of rupee loans. Borrowers will be allowed to raise ECBs with a minimum average maturity period of 7 years for repayment of rupee loans availed domestically for capital expenditure. We don’t expect large-scale easing by the RBI in the next meeting. India’s June crude oil imports fell 13.4% from a year earlier to their lowest since February 2017. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has ruled out reconsidering plan to issue foreign currency overseas sovereign bonds. US Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points to shore up the economy against risks including trade friction. Fed’s Powell said nothing in the US economy poses major near-term threat. China’s offshore yuan fell to its weakest in 2-1/2 years today and was close to a record low after US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump said yesterday that a 10% tariff would be imposed on $300 Bn worth of Chinese goods on September 1 after US negotiators reported no progress during trade negotiations in Shanghai. Since USD/INR has now broken key resistance levels, some more rupee weakness is expected in the coming week.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• US GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, weaker than the 3.1% pace in the first quarter but stronger than the 1.8% projected.

• Sterling slid to a 28-month low as Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government said it now assumed there would be a no-deal Brexit because a “stubborn” European Union was refusing to renegotiate their divorce.

• No-deal Brexit likely to send shock waves through the world economy, tip Britain’s economy into a recession, roil financial markets and weaken London’s position as the pre-eminent international financial center.

• Reserve Bank of India further liberalized the norms related to ECB by relaxing the end-use restrictions with regard to working capital, general corporate purpose and repayment of rupee loans.

• US Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points to shore up the economy against risks including trade friction.

• Powell said “it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts.” At the same time, he said, “I didn’t say it’s just one rate cut.”

• Japanese yen hit a more-than-one month high against the dollar after US President Donald Trump broke a truce in the China-US trade war.

• Trump said he would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 Bn worth of Chinese imports on September 1 after US negotiators returned from trade talks in Shanghai.

• At its meeting yesterday, the UK MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%. Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.

• Foreign investors turned net sellers in Indian markets in July as they pulled out more than Rs. 11,000 crore, highest in 2019.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 68.92 69.67 68.69 68.58

EURINR 76.72 77.32 76.64 77.25

GBPINR 85.28 85.30 83.62 84.33

JPYINR 63.44 65.17 63.36 65.12


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

GMT Start Date Local Time Country Relevance Indicator Name Period Reuters Poll Actual Prefix Unit Prior

5 Aug 07:15 China (Mainland) High Caixin Services PMI Jul 2019 Diff.Idx 52

5 Aug 13:30 United Kingdom Not RatedNew Passenger cars

RegistrationJul 2019 No. of 2E+05

5 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Medium Markit/CIPS Serv PMI Jul 2019 50.2 Diff.Idx 50.2

5 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom High Composite PMI Jul 2019 Diff.Idx

5 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom High Reserve Assets Total Jul 2019 Mln USD 2E+05

5 Aug 19:15 United States High Markit Comp Final PMI Jul 2019 Diff.Idx 51.6

5 Aug 19:15 United States High Markit Svcs PMI Final Jul 2019 Diff.Idx 52.2

5 Aug 19:30 United States Low Employment Trends Jul 2019 Index 109.5

5 Aug 19:30 United States High ISM N-Mfg PMI Jul 2019 55.5 Index 55.1

5 Aug 19:30 United States Low ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Jul 2019 58.3 Index 58.2

5 Aug 19:30 United States Low ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Jul 2019 Index 55

5 Aug 19:30 United States Low ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Jul 2019 Index 55.8

5 Aug 19:30 United States Low ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx Jul 2019 Index 58.9

5 Aug 20:30 United States Not Rated Export Wheat Inspected W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 390.7

5 Aug 20:30 United States Not Rated Export Corn Inspected W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 645.4

5 Aug 20:30 United States Not Rated Exp Soybean Inspected W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 1031

5 Aug 02:30 United States Not Rated All Car Sales Jul 2019 4.61 4.96

5 Aug 02:30 United States Not Rated All Truck Sales Jul 2019 12.21 12.33

5 Aug 04:31 United Kingdom Low BRC Retail Sales YY Jul 2019 Percent -1.6

6 Aug 15:30 United Kingdom Low BBA Mortgage Rate Jul 2019 Percent 4.3

6 Aug 18:25 United States Low Redbook MM W 03 Aug Percent 1

6 Aug 18:25 United States Low Redbook YY W 03 Aug Percent 4.5

6 Aug 19:30 United States Medium JOLTS Job Openings Jun 2019 7.268 Mln Person 7.323

7 Aug 13:00 United Kingdom High Halifax House Prices MM Jul 2019 0.2 Percent -0.3

7 Aug 13:00 United Kingdom Low HalifaxHousePrice 3M/YY Jul 2019 4.4 Percent 5.7

7 Aug 13:30 China (Mainland) Low FX Reserves (Monthly) Jul 2019 3.113 Trl USD 3.119

7 Aug 16:30 United States Low MBA Mortgage Applications W 02 Aug Percent -1.4

7 Aug 16:30 United States Low Mortgage Market Index W 02 Aug Index 484

7 Aug 16:30 United States Low MBA Purchase Index W 02 Aug Index 253

7 Aug 16:30 United States Low Mortgage Refinance Index W 02 Aug Index 1791

7 Aug 16:30 United States Low MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate W 02 Aug Percent 4.08

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Crude Stocks W 02 Aug Mln Barrel -8.496

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks W 02 Aug Mln Barrel -0.894

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk W 02 Aug Mln Barrel -1.791

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Crude Imports W 02 Aug Mln Barrel 0.353

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks W 02 Aug Mln Barrel -0.005

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock W 02 Aug Mln Barrel 0.333

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Prods Imports W 02 Aug Mln Brl/Day 0.065

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Dist Output W 02 Aug Mln Brl/Day -0.055

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Crude Runs W 02 Aug Mln Brl/Day -0.043

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Refining Util W 02 Aug Percent -0.1

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Wkly Crude Cushing W 02 Aug Mln Barrel -1.533

7 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P W 02 Aug Mln Brl/Day 0.327

7 Aug 20:30 United States Low TR IPSOS PCSI Aug 2019 Diff.Idx 62.48

7 Aug 23:00 United States Not Rated EIA Ethanol Ref Stk W 02 Aug Thou Barrel 24468

7 Aug 23:00 United States Not Rated EIA Ethanol Fuel Total W 02 Aug Thou Brl/Day 1031

7 Aug 00:30 United States Medium Consumer Credit Jun 2019 16 Bln USD 17.09

7 Aug 04:31 United Kingdom Medium RICS Housing Survey Jul 2019 1 Balance -1

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Corn Export Sales New W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 199.4

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Corn Export Sales Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 143

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Corn Exp Sale Next Yr Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 129.6

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Corn Exp Sales Net Total W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 272.6

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybean Export Sales New W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 394

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybean Export Sales Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 143.1

CURRENCY


8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybean Exp Sale Next Yr Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 305.5

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybean Exp Sale Net Total W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 448.6

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybeanmeal Exp Sale Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 113.6

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soymeal Exp Sls Next Yr Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 46.5

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybn Meal Exp Sls Net Total W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 160.1

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybeanoil Exp Sales Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 14.6

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybn Oil Exp Sls Nxt Yr Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 0.3

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybn Oil Exp Sls Net Total W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 14.9

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Wheat Export Sales New W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 384.3

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Wheat Export Sales Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 383

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Wheat Exp Sale Next Yr Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 0

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Wheat Exp Sale Net Total W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 383

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Beef Export Sales New W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 13.6

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Beef Export Sales Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 11.3

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Up Cotton Exp Sales New W 01 Aug Thou No. of 33

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated Up Cotton Exp Sales Net W 01 Aug Thou No. of 10.2

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated US Pork Export Sales New W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 23.5

8 Aug 18:00 United States Not Rated US Pork Export Sales Net W 01 Aug Thou Tonne 8.8

8 Aug 18:00 United States High Initial Jobless Claims W 03 Aug 215 Thou Person 215

8 Aug 18:00 United States Low Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg W 03 Aug Thou Person 211.5

8 Aug 18:00 United States Medium Continued Jobless Claims W 27 Jul Mln Person 1.699

8 Aug 19:30 United States Medium Wholesale Invt(y), R MM Jun 2019 0.2 Percent 0.2

8 Aug 19:30 United States Low Wholesale Sales MM Jun 2019 0.2 Percent 0.1

8 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf W 02 Aug Bln Cft 65

8 Aug 20:00 United States Not Rated Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow W 02 Aug Bln Cft 65

8 Aug : China (Mainland) High Exports YY Jul 2019 -2.2 Percent -1.3

8 Aug : China (Mainland) High Imports YY Jul 2019 -7.6 Percent -7.3

8 Aug : China (Mainland) High Trade Balance USD Jul 2019 37.49 Bln USD 50.98

8 Aug : China (Mainland) Not Rated Yuan-Denominated Exports Jul 2019 Percent 6.1

8 Aug : China (Mainland) Not Rated Yuan-Denominated Imports Jul 2019 Percent -0.4

8 Aug : China (Mainland) Not Rated Yuan-Denominated Trade Ba Jul 2019 Bln CNY 345.2

9 Aug 07:00 China (Mainland) High PPI YY Jul 2019 -0.1 Percent 0

9 Aug 07:00 China (Mainland) High CPI YY Jul 2019 2.7 Percent 2.7

9 Aug 07:00 China (Mainland) Medium CPI MM Jul 2019 0.2 Percent -0.1

9 Aug 07:30 China (Mainland) High Total Social Financing Jul 2019 1410 Bln CNY 2260

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Medium Business Invest QQ Prelim Q2 2019 -0.3 Percent 0.4

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Medium Business Invest YY Prelim Q2 2019 Percent -1.5

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom High GDP Est 3M/3M Jun 2019 0 Percent 0.3

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom High GDP Estimate MM Jun 2019 0.1 Percent 0.3

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom High GDP Estimate YY Jun 2019 1.3 Percent 1.5

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Not Rated Services MM Jun 2019 Percent 0

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Not Rated Services YY Jun 2019 Percent 1.7

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Medium Industrial Output MM Jun 2019 -0.2 Percent 1.4

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Medium Industrial Output YY Jun 2019 -0.2 Percent 0.9

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom High Manufacturing Output MM Jun 2019 -0.1 Percent 1.4

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Medium Manufacturing Output YY Jun 2019 -1.1 Percent 0

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Low Construction O/P Vol MM Jun 2019 -0.5 Percent 0.6

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Low Construction O/P Vol YY Jun 2019 0.2 Percent 1.7

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Medium Goods Trade Balance GBP Jun 2019 -11.86 Bln GBP -11.52

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom Low Goods Trade Bal. Non-EU Jun 2019 Bln GBP -4.905

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom High GDP Prelim QQ Q2 2019 0 Percent 0.5

9 Aug 14:00 United Kingdom High GDP Prelim YY Q2 2019 1.4 Percent 1.8

9 Aug 18:00 United States Medium PPI Final Demand YY Jul 2019 1.7 Percent 1.7

9 Aug 18:00 United States Medium PPI Final Demand MM Jul 2019 0.2 Percent 0.1

9 Aug 18:00 United States Medium PPI exFood/Energy YY Jul 2019 2.3 Percent 2.3

9 Aug 18:00 United States Medium PPI exFood/Energy MM Jul 2019 0.2 Percent 0.3

9 Aug 18:00 United States Low PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr YY Jul 2019 Percent 2.1

9 Aug 18:00 United States Low PPI ex Food/Energy/Tr MM Jul 2019 Percent 0

9 Aug : China (Mainland) High M2 Money Supply YY Jul 2019 8.5 Percent 8.5

9 Aug : China (Mainland) High New Yuan Loans Jul 2019 1273 Bln CNY 1660

9 Aug : China (Mainland) Medium Outstanding Loan Growth Jul 2019 12.8 Percent 13

CURRENCY


rule the market - karvy onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue048.pdf ·...

Documents