rt las vegas presentation

7/17/2019 RT Las Vegas Presentation

1/17

Copyright 2003 Robotics Trends

57 East Main Street, Suite 217

Westboro, M 015!1

"50!# 3$$%$$7! & '''(roboticstrends(co)

Sizing and Seizing the Robotics Opportunity

Dan Kara

President, Robotics Trends


2/17


*e+t rained and Right rained na-ysis

Enab-ing techno-ogy

.uantitati/e research

Rea- pain point

o/ern)ent )andated ser/icesupport 'ith an endpoint +ied in ti)e

Researchacade)ia

articipation by -eading /endors

articipation by in/est)ent co))unity

articipation by s)a--er entrepreneuria- co)panies

Co-u)n inches in industry and genera- press

4i++usion o+ inno/ations

Avoiding the Pitfalls of Prognostication


3/17


ndustria-, Ser/ice and ersona- Robotics

ndustria- Robotsndustria- Robots

Mature, established marketExisting dedicated conferences, publications, portals and analyst groupsMarket growth slowing, and limited by:

Structured environments (factory floor!igh price and high entry fees

Ser/ice RobotsSer/ice Robots

Early adopter stage"o dedicated analyst group!andful (#$ dedicated conferences (academic, %&'&) attendees, no vendorsStrong growth expected

Semi'structured environments*ariable price+inked to diverse markets (eg professional cleaning, homeland security, search and rescue, military etc

ersona- Robotsersona- Robots

Early adopter stage"o dedicated analyst group "o dedicated conferences (limited representation in toy eventsExceptional growth expected

+oosely'structured environmentsMostly low price+inked to diverse markets (eg home, entertainment, lawn - garden (.%%/, toy (.&)/, etc

TWO !R"#$" !ARKTS
http://64.35.93.160/pressroom/digitalimages/photo?photo_id=108279


4/17


Ser/ice Robotics

Ser/icing hu)ans

ersona- sa+eguarding, e-der-y assistance, robot%assisted surgery, guide robots etc(

Ser/icing e6uip)ent

-oor, pipe and 'indo' c-eaning, inspection, )aintenance, repair, etc(

er+or)ing other autono)ous +unctions

Ep-oration, 'ar+are, sur/ei--ance, transport, data ac6uisition, inspection, )edica- andor

other ser/ice robots that can not be c-assi+ied in the abo/e t'o groups(

A robot which operates semi or fully autonomously toperform services useful to the well being of humans andequipment, excluding manufacturing operations.

- International ederation of !obotics

"obile robot sales are expected to soar from #$$% million in &''' to morethan #() billion in *ve years. +echnologies are such that decades of laborin arti*cial intelligence, sensing, navigation, communications and responseare beginning to bear fruit in the form of practical mobile robots.

% cti/e Media Research


5/17


"ine etection

!oboticurgery

Industrialleaning

/xploration

earch 0!escue

1nmanned Arial2ehicles

ample ubmar3ets

ecurity4ealthcare

+he 5 industry grew than3s to abundant, inexpensive, high-performancecomponents. ensors and actuators suitable for robots are now readily available,ma3ing it easy to build robots, and putting robotics on a 5-li3e growth curve.

-+a3ayu3i uruta, 5rincipal, 6apan cience and +echnology orp.

Ser/ice Robotics


6/17


ample ubmar3ets

Ser/ice Robotics

8 gricu-ture, orestry, Mining 8 *aboratory, C-ean roo)

8 uto)atic Re+ue-ing 8 Mar9eting, Sa-es, ni)atronics

8 Construction, 4e)o-ition 8 Medica-, Surgica- Robots

8 Courier, 4e-i/ery 8 Micro and :ano Robots

8 4ata c6uisition ; Mobi-e Sensors 8 Mi-itary, Co)bat

8 E6uip)ent Maintenance and Ser/icing 8 o)e-and Security 8 Security and Sur/ei--ance

8 >u)anitarian 4e%)ining 8 Space Ep-oration

8 >u)anoid and nthropo)orphic robots 8 Transportation, nte--igent ?ehic-es8 ndustria-@ro+essiona- C-eaning 8 An)anned eria- ?ehic-es

8 nspection and Repair 8 An)anned Ander'ater ?ehic-es


7/17Copyright 2003 Robotics Trends

Education>obbyist

Entertain)ent S)art toys etc(

uto)ated ho)e etc(

>o)e ssistance ssisti/e robots, 'hee-chair robots etc(

?acuu) c-eaning, -a'n )o'ing, +-oor 'aing etc(

A domestic service robot which educates, entertains orassists in the home.

4ome robotics today is where the 5 industry was in the(7)'s.

- 5aolo 5ir8anian, hief cientist, /volution !obotics

ersona- Robotics



?acuu) C-eaners

Education

Toys

Sa)p-e Sub)ar9ets

*a'n Mo'ersersona- ssistance

E-der ssistance

Entertain)ent

%# have felt for years that the first &'iller application& of personal robots (ill be

co)panionship, especially for the elderly*+ % Roger roc9ett, ro+essor o+ Co)puter

Science and Engineering, >ar/ard Ani/ersity, and ounder, >ar/ard Robotics *ab

ersona- Robotics
http://www.hobbytron.net/legomindstorms200.html



1B70s irst Robot oo)

'Robots on production -ines

'100 +ir)s in/o-/ed 'robots

n+ancy o+ Robotics

'Manipu-ation

'2%4 /isua- sensors

'SCR robots

% irst 1$%bit )icroprocessors

1B!0s Robots eco)e Entrenched n industry

'rc 'e-ding robots on production -ines

'nother 200 +ir)s beco)e in/o-/ed robots

'Robots contro--ed by /isua- sensors

d/anced Robots>u)anoid 4esigns

'ipedMu-tiped 'a-9ing

'nte--igent contro- syste)s

'More ad/anced processors

'irst se)iconductor sensors

% Strong research

1BB0s ro-i+eration o+ ndustria- Robots

'Maturity reached in robotic auto)obi-e and app-iance)anu+acturing

'>onda re-eases 2

'>o)e, entertain)ent and ser/ice robots e)erge

nte--igent >u)anoid Syste)s

'?R%based re)ote contro-

'eha/iora- inte--igence

'Miniature on%board co)puters

'ansei robots

'Mu-ti%robotsMicro%robots

'a--ing co)puter prices

'Micro)achine techno-ogy

'?R techno-ogy

'Massi/e gro'th o+ nternet

2000s Second Robot oo)

'pp-ication o+ robot techno-ogy into ne' +ie-ds

'ntegration o+ RT and T

'>u)anoid p-at+or)s

' nte--igent entertain)ent

irst Stage o+ R;4 into the robots o+ the

+uture

'urther epansion o+ nternet

% :anotechno-ogy e)erges

2010s ro-i+eration o+ :e' Robots

ndustria-, Ser/ice and ersona- Robots

4ecade ndustry cade)iaResearch Re-ated Techno-ogy

Research 4ri/ing Second Robot oo)

SourceD :ationa- nstitute o+ d/anced ndustria- Science and Techno-ogy, apan



5ersonal and ervice !obotics "ar3et!esearch9Academia

>undreds o+ uni/ersities 'or-d'ide ha/e research progra)s in robotics and

are a'arding degrees in robotics( These FrobotisistsG are increasing-y being

hired by -oba- 2000 organi=ations to -in9 )obi-e robots ")obi-e co)puters#

into eisting T syste)s(

Research continues and products are continua--y re-eased by )aHor co)panies

such as uHitsu, >e'-ett%ac9ard and others 'or9 to bring robots to )ar9et(



Wor-d'ide Robotics Mar9et ro'th

Source -apan Robotics Association

Mar9et Si=e "I1,000s#

Jear

I5($ I5(7

I11(0

I2K(B

I$$(K Ser/ice ; ersona-

Robotics Mar9ets

Ser/ice ; ersona- Robotics Mar9et

2000 I0($

2005 I5(K

2010 I17(1

2025 I51(7

L Ec-udes *o' *e/e- E-ectronic Toys

.uantitati/e Research

ersona- and Ser/ice Robotics Mar9ets 4ri/e ro'th



Ser/ice and ersona- Robotics Mar9et ro'th

Mar9et Si=e "I1,000s#

Jear

I3($

I$(2

Source .nited $ations cono)ic /o))ission and #nternational 0ederation of Robotics

A:EC and R redict Strong ro'th





Anits So-d "1,000s#

Jear

$25,KK0

2,1B3,2K0

Source .nited $ations cono)ic /o))ission and #nternational 0ederation of Robotics

A:EC and R redict Strong ro'th



14/17


Microchip techno-ogy and processing speed,

Wire-ess techno-ogy, Te-eco))unications,

Speech recognition,

Motion sensor techno-ogy, and

n+or)ation techno-ogy, and

E)bedded syste)s de/e-op)ent too-s(

nabling Technology in Place

Many o+ the enab-ing techno-ogies re6uired to gro' and enab-e both thepersona- and ser/ice )ar9et p-ace a-ready eists, and a )ar9et +or theseproducts is a-ready in p-ace( So)e o+ the )ost sa-ient enab-ing techno-ogiesinc-ude ad/ances inD



15/17


E-ectronics and uto)oti/e ?endors >onda, Sony, uHitsu, Sanyo, >itachi, :EC, Mitsubishi, Epson and others

Mi-@ero ?endors oeing, Raytheon, e-- >e-icopter, enera- 4yna)ics, >arris Corporation,

>oney'e--, *oc9heed Martin, :orthrop ru))an, TRW, Curtis%Wright -ightSyste)s, MTRE, Roc9'e--, Ja)aha and others

Toys and Entertain)ent >asbro, Sega, andi, To)y, Tiger E-ectronics and others

>o)e uto)ation E-ectro-u, Eure9a, anasonic Hoined by ne'co)ers 4yson, iRobot and others

5ersonal and ervice !obotics "ar3etupport by :eading 2endors


16/17


ain oints ging popu-ation Cost contro-

The Fnet, net big thingG

o/ern)ent Mandates Causa-ity reduction

r)y goa- that by 2015, one%third o+ the operationa- ground co)bat /ehic-es areun)anned

Si)i-ar initiati/es under'ay by AS :a/y and Marines

5ersonal and ervice !obotics "ar3et5ain 5oints and ;overnment "andates


17/17


0obotics 1echnology (01 will see significant growth in the next & years

22)3s academic4research is driving second robot boom

+arge target market 100Ns Aser roups

100Ns cade)ic nstitutions 100Ns o/ern)enta- odies ":ationa- and nternationa-#

oth 2 and consu)er )ar9ets +arge vendor market

Consu)er "Sony, >onda, *ego, >asbro, Epson, etc(#

4edicated robotics /endorsD Mi-itaryeronauticsSecurity "Raytheon, Anited Techno-ogy, etc(#

MaHor T /endors in near +uture "Microso+t, >, M, etc(#

5ersonal and ervice !obotics "ar3etAlignment of the tars

rt las vegas presentation

Documents

robotics trendsndustria

robotics trendsine etection

dedicated conferences

guide robots

analyst groupsmarket

toy eventsexceptional

igh price

ariable price