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Copyright 2003 Robotics Trends
57 East Main Street, Suite 217
Westboro, M 015!1
"50!# 3$$%$$7! & '''(roboticstrends(co)
Sizing and Seizing the Robotics Opportunity
Dan Kara
President, Robotics Trends
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*e+t rained and Right rained na-ysis
Enab-ing techno-ogy
.uantitati/e research
Rea- pain point
o/ern)ent )andated ser/icesupport 'ith an endpoint +ied in ti)e
Researchacade)ia
articipation by -eading /endors
articipation by in/est)ent co))unity
articipation by s)a--er entrepreneuria- co)panies
Co-u)n inches in industry and genera- press
4i++usion o+ inno/ations
Avoiding the Pitfalls of Prognostication
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ndustria-, Ser/ice and ersona- Robotics
ndustria- Robotsndustria- Robots
Mature, established marketExisting dedicated conferences, publications, portals and analyst groupsMarket growth slowing, and limited by:
Structured environments (factory floor!igh price and high entry fees
Ser/ice RobotsSer/ice Robots
Early adopter stage"o dedicated analyst group!andful (#$ dedicated conferences (academic, %&'&) attendees, no vendorsStrong growth expected
Semi'structured environments*ariable price+inked to diverse markets (eg professional cleaning, homeland security, search and rescue, military etc
ersona- Robotsersona- Robots
Early adopter stage"o dedicated analyst group "o dedicated conferences (limited representation in toy eventsExceptional growth expected
+oosely'structured environmentsMostly low price+inked to diverse markets (eg home, entertainment, lawn - garden (.%%/, toy (.&)/, etc
TWO !R"#$" !ARKTS
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Ser/ice Robotics
Ser/icing hu)ans
ersona- sa+eguarding, e-der-y assistance, robot%assisted surgery, guide robots etc(
Ser/icing e6uip)ent
-oor, pipe and 'indo' c-eaning, inspection, )aintenance, repair, etc(
er+or)ing other autono)ous +unctions
Ep-oration, 'ar+are, sur/ei--ance, transport, data ac6uisition, inspection, )edica- andor
other ser/ice robots that can not be c-assi+ied in the abo/e t'o groups(
A robot which operates semi or fully autonomously toperform services useful to the well being of humans andequipment, excluding manufacturing operations.
- International ederation of !obotics
"obile robot sales are expected to soar from #$$% million in &''' to morethan #() billion in *ve years. +echnologies are such that decades of laborin arti*cial intelligence, sensing, navigation, communications and responseare beginning to bear fruit in the form of practical mobile robots.
% cti/e Media Research
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"ine etection
!oboticurgery
Industrialleaning
/xploration
earch 0!escue
1nmanned Arial2ehicles
ample ubmar3ets
ecurity4ealthcare
+he 5 industry grew than3s to abundant, inexpensive, high-performancecomponents. ensors and actuators suitable for robots are now readily available,ma3ing it easy to build robots, and putting robotics on a 5-li3e growth curve.
-+a3ayu3i uruta, 5rincipal, 6apan cience and +echnology orp.
Ser/ice Robotics
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ample ubmar3ets
Ser/ice Robotics
8 gricu-ture, orestry, Mining 8 *aboratory, C-ean roo)
8 uto)atic Re+ue-ing 8 Mar9eting, Sa-es, ni)atronics
8 Construction, 4e)o-ition 8 Medica-, Surgica- Robots
8 Courier, 4e-i/ery 8 Micro and :ano Robots
8 4ata c6uisition ; Mobi-e Sensors 8 Mi-itary, Co)bat
8 E6uip)ent Maintenance and Ser/icing 8 o)e-and Security 8 Security and Sur/ei--ance
8 >u)anitarian 4e%)ining 8 Space Ep-oration
8 >u)anoid and nthropo)orphic robots 8 Transportation, nte--igent ?ehic-es8 ndustria-@ro+essiona- C-eaning 8 An)anned eria- ?ehic-es
8 nspection and Repair 8 An)anned Ander'ater ?ehic-es
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Education>obbyist
Entertain)ent S)art toys etc(
uto)ated ho)e etc(
>o)e ssistance ssisti/e robots, 'hee-chair robots etc(
?acuu) c-eaning, -a'n )o'ing, +-oor 'aing etc(
A domestic service robot which educates, entertains orassists in the home.
4ome robotics today is where the 5 industry was in the(7)'s.
- 5aolo 5ir8anian, hief cientist, /volution !obotics
ersona- Robotics
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?acuu) C-eaners
Education
Toys
Sa)p-e Sub)ar9ets
*a'n Mo'ersersona- ssistance
E-der ssistance
Entertain)ent
%# have felt for years that the first &'iller application& of personal robots (ill be
co)panionship, especially for the elderly*+ % Roger roc9ett, ro+essor o+ Co)puter
Science and Engineering, >ar/ard Ani/ersity, and ounder, >ar/ard Robotics *ab
ersona- Robotics
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1B70s irst Robot oo)
'Robots on production -ines
'100 +ir)s in/o-/ed 'robots
n+ancy o+ Robotics
'Manipu-ation
'2%4 /isua- sensors
'SCR robots
% irst 1$%bit )icroprocessors
1B!0s Robots eco)e Entrenched n industry
'rc 'e-ding robots on production -ines
'nother 200 +ir)s beco)e in/o-/ed robots
'Robots contro--ed by /isua- sensors
d/anced Robots>u)anoid 4esigns
'ipedMu-tiped 'a-9ing
'nte--igent contro- syste)s
'More ad/anced processors
'irst se)iconductor sensors
% Strong research
1BB0s ro-i+eration o+ ndustria- Robots
'Maturity reached in robotic auto)obi-e and app-iance)anu+acturing
'>onda re-eases 2
'>o)e, entertain)ent and ser/ice robots e)erge
nte--igent >u)anoid Syste)s
'?R%based re)ote contro-
'eha/iora- inte--igence
'Miniature on%board co)puters
'ansei robots
'Mu-ti%robotsMicro%robots
'a--ing co)puter prices
'Micro)achine techno-ogy
'?R techno-ogy
'Massi/e gro'th o+ nternet
2000s Second Robot oo)
'pp-ication o+ robot techno-ogy into ne' +ie-ds
'ntegration o+ RT and T
'>u)anoid p-at+or)s
' nte--igent entertain)ent
irst Stage o+ R;4 into the robots o+ the
+uture
'urther epansion o+ nternet
% :anotechno-ogy e)erges
2010s ro-i+eration o+ :e' Robots
ndustria-, Ser/ice and ersona- Robots
4ecade ndustry cade)iaResearch Re-ated Techno-ogy
Research 4ri/ing Second Robot oo)
SourceD :ationa- nstitute o+ d/anced ndustria- Science and Techno-ogy, apan
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5ersonal and ervice !obotics "ar3et!esearch9Academia
>undreds o+ uni/ersities 'or-d'ide ha/e research progra)s in robotics and
are a'arding degrees in robotics( These FrobotisistsG are increasing-y being
hired by -oba- 2000 organi=ations to -in9 )obi-e robots ")obi-e co)puters#
into eisting T syste)s(
Research continues and products are continua--y re-eased by )aHor co)panies
such as uHitsu, >e'-ett%ac9ard and others 'or9 to bring robots to )ar9et(
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Wor-d'ide Robotics Mar9et ro'th
Source -apan Robotics Association
Mar9et Si=e "I1,000s#
Jear
I5($ I5(7
I11(0
I2K(B
I$$(K Ser/ice ; ersona-
Robotics Mar9ets
Ser/ice ; ersona- Robotics Mar9et
2000 I0($
2005 I5(K
2010 I17(1
2025 I51(7
L Ec-udes *o' *e/e- E-ectronic Toys
.uantitati/e Research
ersona- and Ser/ice Robotics Mar9ets 4ri/e ro'th
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Ser/ice and ersona- Robotics Mar9et ro'th
Mar9et Si=e "I1,000s#
Jear
I3($
I$(2
Source .nited $ations cono)ic /o))ission and #nternational 0ederation of Robotics
A:EC and R redict Strong ro'th
.uantitati/e Research
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Ser/ice and ersona- Robotics Mar9et ro'th
Anits So-d "1,000s#
Jear
$25,KK0
2,1B3,2K0
Source .nited $ations cono)ic /o))ission and #nternational 0ederation of Robotics
A:EC and R redict Strong ro'th
.uantitati/e Research
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Microchip techno-ogy and processing speed,
Wire-ess techno-ogy, Te-eco))unications,
Speech recognition,
Motion sensor techno-ogy, and
n+or)ation techno-ogy, and
E)bedded syste)s de/e-op)ent too-s(
nabling Technology in Place
Many o+ the enab-ing techno-ogies re6uired to gro' and enab-e both thepersona- and ser/ice )ar9et p-ace a-ready eists, and a )ar9et +or theseproducts is a-ready in p-ace( So)e o+ the )ost sa-ient enab-ing techno-ogiesinc-ude ad/ances inD
Ser/ice and ersona- Robotics Mar9et ro'th
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E-ectronics and uto)oti/e ?endors >onda, Sony, uHitsu, Sanyo, >itachi, :EC, Mitsubishi, Epson and others
Mi-@ero ?endors oeing, Raytheon, e-- >e-icopter, enera- 4yna)ics, >arris Corporation,
>oney'e--, *oc9heed Martin, :orthrop ru))an, TRW, Curtis%Wright -ightSyste)s, MTRE, Roc9'e--, Ja)aha and others
Toys and Entertain)ent >asbro, Sega, andi, To)y, Tiger E-ectronics and others
>o)e uto)ation E-ectro-u, Eure9a, anasonic Hoined by ne'co)ers 4yson, iRobot and others
5ersonal and ervice !obotics "ar3etupport by :eading 2endors
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ain oints ging popu-ation Cost contro-
The Fnet, net big thingG
o/ern)ent Mandates Causa-ity reduction
r)y goa- that by 2015, one%third o+ the operationa- ground co)bat /ehic-es areun)anned
Si)i-ar initiati/es under'ay by AS :a/y and Marines
5ersonal and ervice !obotics "ar3et5ain 5oints and ;overnment "andates
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0obotics 1echnology (01 will see significant growth in the next & years
22)3s academic4research is driving second robot boom
+arge target market 100Ns Aser roups
100Ns cade)ic nstitutions 100Ns o/ern)enta- odies ":ationa- and nternationa-#
oth 2 and consu)er )ar9ets +arge vendor market
Consu)er "Sony, >onda, *ego, >asbro, Epson, etc(#
4edicated robotics /endorsD Mi-itaryeronauticsSecurity "Raytheon, Anited Techno-ogy, etc(#
MaHor T /endors in near +uture "Microso+t, >, M, etc(#
5ersonal and ervice !obotics "ar3etAlignment of the tars