rookery south – implications for air quality and health · pdf fileannual mean no2...

Delivering sustainable solutions in a more competitive world

Rookery South –implications for air quality and health

Roger Barrowcliffe, 24 May 2008


Content

• Changes to local air quality• dispersion model results

• Dioxins and metals – the food chain model• effects on a hypothetical resident/farmer

• Particles• background knowledge on health effects

• our calculation for the population around Rookery Pit


Expected Annual Average Concentrations (µg m-3)

Pollutant RRF Contribution (maximum point of impact)

Existing Concentration

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2)

1.5 15-20

Sulphur dioxide (SO2)

0.4 7

PM10/PM2.5 0.05 18/9

Dioxins 0.000 000 000 49 0.000 000 36


Additional Annual Average NO2Concentrations ( µg m-3)

496000 497000 498000 499000 500000 501000 502000 503000 504000 505000 506000236000

237000

238000

239000

240000

241000

242000

243000

244000

245000

246000

Annual mean NO2(micrograms/m3)


Additional maximum one hour average NOx concentrations ( µg m-3)


NOx concentrations, at the location of maximum impact, hour by hour (2009)(Pink = background, blue = EfW contribution)


Food chain modelling (dioxins and metals)

Key points:• the US EPA human health risk assessment

protocol is followed by ERM;• hypothetical residents/farmers defined for ‘worst

case exposure’;• along with their diet;• for some metals, the health effect is described in

terms of a carcinogenic risk• for dioxins, the health effect is evaluated by

calculating the additional lifetime body burden


Location of Receptors


Risk – what does it mean?

1 in 20,000,000 (=0.05 x 10-6)Animal venom (wasps)1 in 10,000,000 (=0.1 x 10-6)Lightning strike1 in 5,000,000Terrorist bomb (in London)1 in 420,000Rail accident1 in 30,000Accident at work1 in 12,000Accident at home1 in 10,000Motor vehicle accident1 in 600Man, aged 35-441 in 200Smoking 30 cigarettes per day

The table below shows the annual risks of fatality, based on simple incidence statistics


Carcinogenic lifetime risk by pathway

Pathway Farmer (near Stewartby)

Resident (Stewartby)

Inhalation 0.47 x 10-6 0.24 x 10-6

Ingestion - vegetation 0.79 x 10-6 0.26 x 10-6

Ingestion - beef 0.44 x 10-6 -

Ingestion- chicken 0.00003 x 10-6 -

Ingestion - milk 0.0029 x 10-6 -

Ingestion - soil 0.000014 x 10-6 0.000065 x 10-6

Total: 2.0 x 10-6 0.5 x 10-6


Particles and Health – background and a brief history

• the historical perspective• the epidemiological evidence• a quick look inside the human respiratory system• sources of advice and guidance• methods of quantification


Deaths and Air Pollution during December 1952 in Greater London

025

050

075

010

00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Day

Dea

ths

010

0020

0030

0040

00SO

2 and

Sm

oke

(µg/

m-3

)

Deaths

SulphurDioxide

Smoke


Ultrafine particles (source: Univ of Birmingham)


Real life particles from a street (source: WHO)


1990s – the epidemiologists’ discoveries

• The ‘Six Cities’ Study• Harvard School of Public Health

• Other supporting North American studies • Utah steel mills

• 7Th Day Adventists

• Results replicated in other countries• Headline: particles associated with mortality, no

threshold of effect


‘Six Cities’ Study – The Key Result


Particles and Health – What we know

• The epidemiologically observed association between premature death and long term residence in areas with high PM concentrations is robust.

• Deaths appear to be cardio-vascular related.• Similar associations are observed with

exacerbation of asthma and other respiratory disease.

• Proximity to busy roads, with a high density of diesel vehicles, increases the prevalence of negative effects in some studies.


Why might particles be harmful? A look at the human respiratory system

• Upper respiratory tract• Lower respiratory tract:

• Main Bronchus, 2

• Smaller bronchus, 1,000

• Bronchiole, 2,000

• Terminal bronchiole, 3,000

• Alveolar duct, 30,000,000

• Alveolus, 300,000,000


The Alveoli


Soot particle inside an alveolus


Loss in statistical life expectancy in months, attributable to anthropogenic contributions to PM2.5 emissions (2003) (Source: CAFE)


Calculating mortality for long term exposure to PM2.5

There is 0.6% increase in mortality in a population exposed to an increase of 1 µg m-3 PM2.5 as an annual average concentration

Attributable to Pope et al (2002) and used by COMEAP and CAFE

Used by ERM as the basis for calculating ‘loss of life years’,in conjunction with dispersion model results, population data and the use of ‘life tables’

The key result from epidemiological studies:


Quantifying the additional health effects – PM10


Our results – a summary of results for PM10

Outcome Background (per 1,000, per annum)

Additional (per annum, whole population) *

Hospital admission –cardiovascular

14 0.033

Hospital admission -respiratory

7.8 0.033

GP consultation -asthma

64 0.63

Chronic bronchitis 8 0.22

* Note: whole population considered = 26,431

Background data from national statistics – available information from Hospital Episode Statistics on-line


Our result for PM2.5

• A total of 0.62 years life lost across the population of 26,431

• Or, put another way, equal to 12 minutes per person if the effect is distributed uniformly

• Recall that the current impact of PM2.5 is about 8-9 months of life lost for each person in England


Summary

• Changes to local air quality calculated using a dispersion model – impact is small relative to existing concentrations

• Full compliance with air quality standards• Risks to health of dioxins and metals examined

through full risk assessment model – risk is very small and within tolerability criterion

• Effects of exposure to additional concentrations of particles quantified and compared to existing health outcomes

rookery south – implications for air quality and health · pdf fileannual mean no2...

Documents