Hans von Storch

Director, Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS, GermanyProfessor, Meteorological Institute, Hamburg University, Hamburg

Roles played in any of the IPCC assessment processes?

• TAR: lead author WG I• AR4: volunteered to act as lead author, but not picked; invitation to act as review author declined.• AR5: volunteered to act as lead author in WG II; obviously not picked

Participation at some expert workshops

Overview

• Problems• Suggested elements of a solution• The regional example BACC

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

The IPCC…

• Reports contain errors. This is not a surprise given the sheer volume of the reports.

• Examples: Himalaya, Low lying part of The Netherlands, endangered food supply in Africa.

• All WG 2 (impacts), all exaggerations – by coincidence? Often related to employing material provided by interested parties.

• IPCC has not adopted mechanisms for dealing with such problems.

• But, maybe “just” sloppiness…• But: No known errors in WG 1(physics)

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

2009

Not a sloppy error …- reviewers pointed to the problem

- the authors choose this representation even though the issue was, and still is, scientifically contested. Significant literature was disregarded.

- IPCC authors have decided to violate the mission of IPCC, by presenting disinformation.

- IPCC secretariat is not giving answers, why issue is not rectified.

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

supplementary materials to Chapter 1 of WGII

2006

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

Survey in Hamburg

sehr groß groß weniger groß nicht gegebenDie Bedrohung durch den Klimawandel halten wir für ...

0

10

20

30

40

50

%

Umfrage von Beate Ratter, GKSSFe h le r: + /- 4 %

Ham burg 2008Ham burg 2009Ham burg 2010

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

Insight needed: Climate science is in a postnormal state

• Postnormal science: Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier.

• When facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent, science is not done for reasons for curiosity but is asked for as support for preconceived value-based agendas.

• Climate science is in a postnormal state.

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

Lund and Stockholm

Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?

Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“

Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some

extent but not completely avoided

Storms

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

Postnormality requires

• Analysis of two bodies of knowledge claims, namely (dominantly) scientifically constructed knowledge, and (dominantly) culturally constructed knowledge.

• Analytical support by cultural sciences needed.• Discrimination between scientifically solid core of

knowledge vs. added politically convenient (contested) knowledge claims.

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

IPCC procedures need revisions

1. Dominant (“best”) authors are no longer responsible for describing consensus (as “lead authors”) – (otherwise they assess their own work).

2. Political and economic interests are not informing the process of assessing the legitimate scientific knowledge.       

3. An independent “ombudsman”-system takes care of complaints about factual errors (in determining consensus) and conflicts of interest.

4. Assessment by IPCC is independent of acting persons. Dominant authors must be frequently replaced.

5. IPCC is providing an ovberview of the contested issues. In particular it describes dis-sensus. IPCC encourages falsification.

6. Political and scientific functions within IPCC must be strictly separated.

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

The Baltic Sea Catchment Assessment: BACCAn IPCC-like effort to document the scientifically legitimized knowledge about anthropogenic climate change available for the Baltic Sea catchment.

Under the supervision of the GEWEX sub-programme BALTEX.

Two issues, the IPCC could learn something from BACC:

1. Strict separation between bookkeeping of knowledge (BACC) and political assessment (HELCOM).

2. Survey among scientists on how well the effort succeeded in tracking the available knowledge.

3. The issue of “grey”-nessHans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

More than 30 contributing institutionsMore than 80 contributing authors from 13 countries More than 2000 references

The report is based on the BACC material but condensed to 59 pages with a focus of the marine environment of the Baltic Sea. It has been approved by the HELCOM contracting governments of 9 countries and the European Commission.

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

Assessing Scientific Reports: The BACC reportHow well do you feel your area of expertise was represented

1 = not at all 7 = very well

2 3 4 5 6

not a

t all

very

well

level of representation

other

Sea level rise

Change in marine ecosystems

Change in terrestrial - freshwater ecosystems

Projections of future anthropogenic climate change

Past and current climate change

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

Bray, 2010, pers. comm.

The issue of “grey”-ness

“The essence of the Lead Authors’ task is the synthesis of material drawn comprehensively from the available scientifically legitimate literature (e.g. peer reviewed literature, conference proceedings, reports of scientific institutes). Studies whose results and conclusions cannot be reconciled with a consensus view but which are of a good scientific and technical standard should be taken into account. The assessment should thus encompass the knowledge about what scientists agree on but also identify cases of disagreement or knowledge gaps.”

BACC-2 rules

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC

Take home• IPCC is an indispensable effort.• IPCC processes need to be improved.• Needed: Mechanism to deal with claims about errors and

conflicts of interest.• Needed: Mechanism to avoid group dynamics.• Needed: Discrimination between scientifically legitimate

knowledge and culturally constructed (value-based) knowledge claims.

• No assessment, if no scientific legitimate knowledge has been generated.

• Learning from regional efforts.

Hans von Storch - 1. Problems - 2. Elements of a solution - 3. Example BACC