IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)Role of Working Group III (Mitigation)

British High Commission, New Delhi29 January 2016

IPCC outputs

+ Special Reports as requested by the Panel, e.g. Extreme Events; Renewable Energy; Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage; Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry; Aviation

WG-III Bureau elected October 2015

Outline of AR5 WG-III Report

1 Introductory Chapter2 Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies3 Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods

4 Sustainable Development and Equity

5 Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

6 Assessing Transformation Pathways

7 Energy Systems8 Transport9 Buildings10 Industry

11 Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

12 Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning

13 International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments14 Regional Development and Cooperation

15 National and Sub-National Policies and Institutions

16 Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues

Cumulative CO2 emissions are correlated with global temperatures

5

The window for action is rapidly closing65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used

Amount Used1870-2011:

515GtC

Amount Remaining:

275GtC

Total Carbon Budget:

790GtC

AR5 WGI SPM

Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal.

~3°C

Based on Figure 6.7 AR5 WGIII SPM

Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C

Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C

A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks

Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges

But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C

AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM

Mitigation Measures

More efficient use of energy

Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy• Many of these technologies exist today

Improved carbon sinks• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management

and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage

Lifestyle and behavioural changesAR5 WGIII SPM

10

Emission patterns would need to change throughout the economy.

Aspirations of new Bureau

➜ Enhance participation of developing country experts ➜ Deepen engagement between Working Groups➜ Strengthen links between the insights obtained from high level

integrated assessment modelling and the concrete steps required to mitigate climate change

➜ Increase policy relevance and neutrality by incorporating inputs from business, industry and finance

➜ Enhance the relevance for policymakers charged with following through decisions made under the Framework Convention

➜ Connect to domestic challenges such as job creation, health, innovation and technology development, energy access and poverty alleviation

31 proposals for Special Reports during AR6: Two or three possible

Cluster A: Land use, desertification, food and agriculture 7 proposals

Cluster B: Cryosphere, oceans and mountains 8 proposals

Cluster C: Health and security 2 proposals

Cluster D: Integrating adaptation and mitigation 5 proposals

Cluster E: Carbon pricing 1 proposal

Cluster F: Scenarios and low-carbon development 4 proposals including UNFCCC 1.5°

Cluster G: Managing climate data and information 1 proposal

Cluster H: Updates policy relevant messages/extreme events 2 proposals

Cluster I: Cities 1 proposal

AR6 milestones – latter part of cycle to be decided

➜ October 2015: election of Bureau➜ April 2016: selection of Special Reports

➜ 2018: date of report requested by UNFCCC on implications of 1.5°global warming

➜ 2020/21: assessment reports start to be approved ➜ 2021/22: deadline for AR6 Synthesis Report➜ 2022: end of AR6 and election of new Bureau

Public sector energy RD&D spend has recovered, and is focusing increasingly on renewables and efficiency

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

$/ba

rrel

201

2

$bn

2012

US

Other

Renewable Energy

Nuclear

Fossil Fuels

Crude oil price

Source: IEA

Energy innovation underpinned by advances in underlying science and engineering

Materials scienceBiosciences

Information and communication technologies

The energy innovation system

Grubler & Wilson (2014)

Renewables costs have been falling, especially PV

IPCC SRREN

The productivity of fossil fuel extraction has also risen

Source: Energy Information Administration

The effectiveness of energy innovation systems:technology case studies

Heat pumps

Smart grid

Shale gas

Wind energy

Waveenergy

The effectiveness of energy innovation systems:country case studies