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Rogue Valley Climate; Trends & Projections Table Rock Kiwanis, Thursday May 22 nd Alan Journet Ph.D. http://socan.info alanjournet@gmail.com 541-301-4107 Presentation (as pdf) on web site: click Projects select Presentation Project scroll down to listed presentation schedule http://socan.info alanjournet@gmail.com Slide 2 What incited my concern about climate change? 30 years teaching biology at Southeast Missouri State University: What are these? Mainly ecology, science methods, conservation biology so lets start with a little biology... Slide 3 What Determines Biological Community Distribution? Average Temperature. Average Precipitation. X Slide 4 So What? MAJOR BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES OF THE WORLD These control the agricultural and forestry potential of our land Not only do these represent where our flora and fauna livebut Slide 5 Business as usual CO 2 850 ppm Some redress: CO 2 550 ppm Williams & Jackson 2007: http://www.frontiersinecology.org/paleoecology/williams.pdfhttp://www.frontiersinecology.org/paleoecology/williams.pdf POTENTIAL FUTURE OF CURRENT NATURAL COMMUNITIES Within 500km Blue Probability = 1; Red Probability = 0 Slide 6 A Medical Issue: Diagnosis and Response Prob. Of Survival 100 50 10 20 30 40 I II III IV My Choices: 1 Accept the diagnosis Conclude I have cancer, and undergo treatment. But they could be wrongmaybe I dont have cancer. 2- Deny the diagnosis Conclude Im fine, and decline treatment. But I could be wrongmaybe I do have cancer. TIME IN MONTHS 12 24NOW 2 1995 AML: No treatment Hopium Slide 7 Outline Why I am Concerned Trends and Projections Temperature Projections for the Rogue Valley Temperature extremes Droughts / Wildfires Precipitation Patterns in the Rogue Valley Rain vs Snow. Stream flow patterns. Weird Weather Consequences. The Bigger Picture What We Can Do? Slide 8 THE MESSAGES 1) Climate change consequences are here and now 2) Projections are mainly continuations of current trends For those who plan to nap through my presentation. Slide 9 Historic Trends are based on DATA The Future is Based on Projections: ~ But Are Projections Meaningful? Slide 10 http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-9-5.html Global models using 1901-1950 as baseline. a)Simulations incorporating natural and human-induced influences. b) Simulations with natural influences only. Black Actual Red - Modeled Black Actual Blue - Modeled Slide 11 Medford Average Temperature History US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Slide 12 Rogue Basin Temperature History and Projections 1961-1990 Ave 50.03 0 F Summer Ave 63.58 0 F Winter Ave 38.17 0 F Business As Usual Slide 13 Projected Increases 2035-2045 Average 1.6 4 F (51.6 53.8 F) Winter 1 3.5 F (39.1 41.7 F) Summer 1 6 F (64.4 69.5 F) August 1 7.5 F (67.1 73.5 F) 2075-2085 Average 4.3 8.2 F (54.3 58.2 F) Winter 3.4 6.3 F (41.5 44.5 F) Summer 5.5 11.8 F (69.1 75.4 F) August 6.7 16.8 F (72.7 82.8 F) Slide 14 Historic and Projected Ashland/Medford Annual Temperature http://www.wunderground.com/climate/local.html?id=42500353445&var=TAVG Ashland Medford Slide 15 US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Medford 100 Degree Days History EXTREMES ARE ALSO IMPORTANT Slide 16 Heat Waves: Number of Days > 100 o F Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Slide 17 Historic Precipitation Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. National increase of 5% Substantial Regional Difference Slide 18 Rogue Valley Precipitation Trends and Projections Slide 19 46 http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment Projected Precipitation Seasonal Pattern High Emissions Scenarios = Business As Usual Slide 20 http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west April 22 nd 2014 Over 6 months Slide 21 Jackson County Declaration Governor John Kitzhaber signed Executive Order 14-04 on May 6 th when Jackson County was declared a Drought Emergency Area. Josephine County Commissioners declared A Drought Emergency. Slide 22 2006-20352036-20652066-2095 http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Reprint_2010-14.pdf Palmer Drought Severity Index with Projections Green: Decreasing Drought 7 months fewer per 30 years Yellow- Red: Increasing Drought over 60 months more per 30 yrs Business as usual Slide 23 1958 2007 Historic Heavy Downpours (Heaviest 1% of all events): % Increase in Freq. Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More events featuring heavy downpours Slide 24 1958 2007 Historic Increase in Amount of pptn falling in Heavy Downpours Pattern Heaviest 1% as Amount in Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More precipitation in the heavier downpours Slide 25 Projected Patterns in Light, Moderate & Heavy Precipitatio n Events by 2090s Reduced Light Drizzle Days Increased Heavy Downpour Days Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Slide 26 US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Medford Annual Snowfall - Inches Historic Slide 27 Historic Grants Pass Annual Snowfall http://www.wunderground.com/climate/local.html?id=USC00353445&var=SNOW&MR=1 Slide 28 March 2014 Snowpack ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/or_swepctnormal_update.pdf Slide 29 Snow vs Rainfall Trend Current trend is towards precipitation falling as rain at lower elevations rather than snow at higher elevations Expected to continue Reduced snow water equivalent Earlier snowmelt Earlier and lower peak stream flow Slide 30 Mid-Elevation Snowfall Crater Lake 7,000 8,000 ft N. California 1950 - 2000 Below 7500 13% decline Above 7500 12% increase Slide 31 Projected PNW Run-off Timing Run-off peak earlier & lower Late summer run-off lower Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Warming & Loss of Snowpack Slide 32 0.5 C is the difference between a high fire year and a low fire year. (http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate- change-yellowstone-fires.html )http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate- change-yellowstone-fires.html Forest studies tell us wildfire frequency is high when annual average temperature is high and snowmelt arrives early. Western Wildfires & Climate Change Exactly the historic trends and projections discussed Slide 33 http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html Western Wildfires & Climate Change Slide 34 http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html Western Wildfires & Climate Change Slide 35 Related Climatic Factors: Local Trends & Projections Slide 36 US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Medford Frost-Free and Freeze Free Days Historic Frost-Free: >36F Freeze Free: >33F Whats happening locally in terms of growing season? Slide 37 Medford Growing Degree and Freezing Days Historic Growing Degree Days: > 50F Freezing Days: < 33F US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Less Irrigation Water Slide 38 Jet Stream and the Arctic Oscillation Polar Air Pressure Low - air rising Polar Air Pressure High - air falling http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/unusually-cold-spring-in-europe-and-the-southeast-us-due-to-the-arct Slide 39 Climate Change (Chaos) and the Jet Stream http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/03/07/climate-change-may- be-affecting-the-jet-stream/ COLD WARM COLD WARM Slide 40 Any Thoughts or Feelings So Far? THE MESSAGES 1) Climate change consequences are here and now 2) Projections are mainly continuations of current trends 3) Unless we choose to address the problem 4) Denying the evidence just delays action 5) Its about Inter-generational Justice; do we care about the future, or not? Slide 41 NASA GISS Historic Data: 1880 - 2013 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif Since 1970s - 1.3 F Since 1880s - app. 2.0 F Since 1750s - >2.0F 1998 2008 2010 2013 1880 -1900 Every year since 1998 is warmer than every year before that Slide 42 http://skepticalscience.com//news.php?f=big-picture Visions of The Last 40 Years Slide 43 U.S. Temperatures 1880 2013 Goddard Institute for Space Studies Departure from 1951- 1980 mean 2012 - Continental U.S. 1.03 F above previous record. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.D.gif 0 1.8 0.9 2.7 0.9 1.8 FF Slide 44 http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter12.pdf Future Temperature Range (Beyond 2100) 3.6 F 7.2 F 10.8 F 14.4 F 18.0 F 21.6 F Slide 45 Managing the Unavoidable (Adaptation) Managing ourselves and our environment in ways that minimize the threats posed; Preparing ourselves and natural systems to withstand climate changes that are unavoidable and which we cannot minimize. Bierbaum, R and J. Holdren, JP, MacCracken, M, Moss RH, Raven PH. 2007 Confronting climate change: Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable. http://www.sigmaxi.org/about/news/UNSEGonline.pdfhttp://www.sigmaxi.org/about/news/UNSEGonline.pdf But this is not enough.. Avoiding the Unmanageable (Mitigation) Reducing the release of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere. Slide 46 Rogue Valley: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Private cars/trucks Public Transit Local Freight Transportation 32% Energy 24% Materials = Stuff 44% Energy to make stuff Energy to transport stuff here Fossil Fuels for energy production Energy used in our homes & local businesses Natural gas for heating Clothes, shoes, phones, TVs Slide 47 Areas To Address Individually Energy Consumption Transportation Stuff Slide 48 We Have Choices! Individually & Collectively Money inflows & outflows Back in the Day Now. Energy Accounting GHG CO 2 Carbon Accounting Hopium Slide 49 Questions? Any comments or questions ????