Climate Change in the Rogue Valley:Current Projections & Reasoned Responses

Alan Journet

alanjournet@gmail.com / 541-301-4107Professor emeritus,

Southeast Missouri State UniversityNow living in Applegate Valley

Co-Facilitatorhttp://socan.info

For ppt: http://socan.info Projects Presentation Project Scroll down to ‘SOCAN Presentations Delivered’

What incited my concernabout climate change?

30 years teaching biology at Southeast Missouri State University:

Mainly ecology, science methods.

What Determines BiologicalCommunity Distribution?

• Average Temperature.• Average Precipitation.

X

So What?MAJOR BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES OF THE WORLD

These control the agricultural and forestry potential of our land

Not only do these represent whereour flora and fauna live…but

Intergenerational JusticeStewardship

Level Playing FieldExternalizing waste

allowspollution of our air –

Newer carbon-free technologiescannot compete with free

waste allowance

“What have futuregenerations ever done

for me?”

Free?We all pay the price.

97% of climateScientists agree –

The planet is warmingHuman caused gas emissions

are contributing

Anthropocene EraCRITICAL VALUES

Are We Sacrificing Our Environment & Future For Short-term Economic

Benefit?

• 1995 –

• Within two weeks -

• AML

• Bone Marrow

Risk Assessment….A Personal Example – Why I am addicted to Hopium

A Medical IssueDiagnosis and Response

Prob. OfSurvival

100

50

10

20

30

40

I

II

III

IV

My Choices:

1 – Accept the diagnosisConclude I have cancer, and undergo treatment.

But they could be wrong…maybe I don’t have cancer.

2- Deny the diagnosisConclude I’m fine, and decline treatment.

But I could be wrong…maybe I do have cancer.

What do you think you’d do?TIME IN MONTHS12 24NOW 2

1995AML: No

treatment

What do you think I did?

Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012cf 1951-1980

10th warmest in theGISS record

1998

2000-2009 was hottest

decade on record

Nine of the ten hottest years recorded

occurred in that decade

GISS = Goddard Institute forSpace Studies

20121.3⁰F

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif

No-one under 36 has experienced a cooler than

(20th C) average year

Projected Temperature Trends in Pacific Northwest to 2100

http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach1scenarios642.pdf

Historic Data

Projections

Unavoidable

Unmanageable

Unknown

Rogue Valley Temperature History and Projections

2099

1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F

Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.100F

1900 2000

1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F

Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.100F

Seasonal Patternscompared to 1961-1990 average

2035-2045Average

1.5 – 4.0⁰F

Winter 1– 3.5⁰F

Summer1 – 6.0⁰F

August 1.3 – 7.8⁰F

2075-2085Average

4.3 -8.2⁰F

Winter 3.4 -6.3⁰F

Summer5.6 – 11.8⁰F

August 6.7 – 16.8⁰F

Projected Extreme 1 in 20 year Heat Events by 2080-2099

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

In addition to averages – extremes are important….

Projected Days > 100oF

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Projected Precipitation

Seasonal Pattern –

HighEmissions Scenarios

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Crater Lake (May, 2011)

Declining Mid-Elevation Snowfall 7,000 – 8,000 ft

1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

f(x) = − 24.5952380952381 x + 639.928571428571

Average annual snowfall at Crater Lake HQ

From when data were first collected

Inch

es o

f sno

wfa

ll

Source: Crater Lake National Park

25% Reduction

N. California 1950 - 2000

Below 7500’ 13% declineAbove 7500’ 12% increase

Applegate Lake

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Jackson County Irrigation Ditches arecritical for agricultural productivity

For Grapes

and Pears

CO2, Temperature and Crop Production

Increasing CO2 may be positive, but increasing temp is negative

Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

From Interstate 5 –Saturday July 27th

Wolf Creek AreaNorth of Grants Pass

Medford Mail Tribune – Glendale Fire July 29th

This could be worst fire season in 10 years

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

Wildfires

10 F makes difference between a high fire year and a low fire year.(http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-yellowstone-fires.html )

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/infographic-wildfires-climate-change.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

Natural Community Condition Trends

1 - Elimination of spruce/fir/hemlock forest,2 - Reduction in Douglas fir dominated association,3 - Possible expansion of Ponderosa pine association,4 - Expansion of Oregon oak chapparal association,5 - Expansion of shrubland and grassland.

2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC

• AR-5 Fifth Assessment Report 2013-2014“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.”

Established in 1988 by U.N. Environment Programme and World Meteorological Union. Composed of thousands of atmospheric scientists and climate scientists the world who review literature, evaluate what is happening, and provide consensus summaries. Reported 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, and now 201/2014.

Atmosphere:“Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 …. In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years.”Likely = 66 – 100%

2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC

2008 The National Intelligence Council: National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030: Drought, severe weather, flooding and refugees, water and resource shortages.

97% of Practicing Climate Scientists agree with 2007 IPCC

– 2009, 2010, 2013 peer-reviewed studies

“Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade).

“It is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the mid-20th century.”Virtually Certain = 99 – 100%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

B UT

23 X CO2 296 X CO2

Approximately 75% > 75%

The Problem?

• Greenhouse gases released by human activity:• Carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen.

2000 Global Emissions

It’s basically about energy production/consumption

• Reduce energy use – especially when energy is generated by burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas);

• Especially reduce fossil fuel based transportation and electricity generation.• Reduce, reuse, recycle.

• Individual ActionA necessary but insufficient condition.

Essence of A Solution

We Have Choices!

Money inflows& outflows

Back in the Day… Now….

EnergyAccounting

$ GHG

CO2

CarbonAccounting

Hopium Addiction

What produces carbon emissions locally? Good Co, Eugene, OR GHG Inventory

http://rvcog.org/cogboard/2011/Dec_14/RVCOG-REA-Final_PPT-121511.pdf

Oregon Electric Generation Mix

Source: Oregon Department of Energy

Fossil fuels >50%

Rogue Valley Energy Production and Consumption

Average Energy Use in Oregon Homes

The ‘low hanging fruit’…

Energy Efficiency Pyramid for Home Improvements

Increasing CO2 Mitigation

Cost in€ per ton= $1.4

Positive =Cost

(Negative =Savings)

Economic Study Undertaken by McKinsey Consulting Firm © 2010

Actions here cost us money

Actions here save us money

Let’s think now about the economics of addressing climate change…

Reducing carbon emissions

Note I – China = 8.24 GtU.S. = 5.8 GtCombined 14 Gt

Impact of the Financial Crisis on Carbon Economics © 2010; Per-Anders Enkvist, Jens Dinkel, Charles Lin, McKinsey & Company

Note II - Role of Technology

Federal Solutions

• How would a carbon tax work?• Levies tax at the point of origin (mine, well, extraction site),• The annually increasing tax (or fee) would discourage carbon

fuels and make carbon-free alternatives more cost-effective and competitive,

• Revenue could be used to promote R&D of alternative fuels or be returned to taxpayers as a dividend,

• Since total emissions are not regulated, effectiveness will depend on the pressures imposed by the tax, and the guess of a ‘correct’ tax to achieve a determined goal.

• It IS a tax….

• To those who complain that it’s a tax….• We are currently paying a tax in suffering and economic losses due to

heat waves, droughts, severe weather, etc. (some $200 b in U.S. over 2 years).

• Who should pay the tax?• Those benefitting from polluting our atmosphere• Or• Those suffering.

It’s a TAX!!!!

http://socan.info

Co-Facilitators:Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.com

Kathy Conway kathleendconway@gmail.com

MEETINGS: Generally Last Tuesday of the month Special Topic Presentation 6:00 – 6:30 pm

General Meeting: 6:30 – 8:00 pmMedford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.

Mission & Goal Statement

Our Mission:

• To recognize the urgency for bold action against climate change• To promote awareness and understanding about the causes and consequences of climate change• To develop solutions and motivate concerned citizens to take action

Goal:Collaborating with individuals and organizations throughout the world, we seek a reduction in the global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to 350 parts per million. To achieve this, we encourage both personal and governmental actions that reduce carbon dioxide emissions from individual to global levels.

Focus GroupsCommunity Education

Green Energy GovernmentNatural Resources

ProjectsBear Creek Salmon Festival

Curriculum DivestmentWeather Riparian Restoration

Federal Government State GovernmentPresentations

StandingTeamsResearch Media Creative

Leadership Circle

Meetings on 2nd Friday, noon-2pm at Talent Library

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CURRICULUM:Engage regional educators in developing curricular materials promoting in students an awareness and understanding of the science of climate change together with its causes, consequences and counters. Our target is to produce materials that can be used either in the curriculum (i.e. schools or at home) or in extra-curricular situations (youth groups, after school clubs, Nature Centers, Summer Camps, etc.). Next meeting – please come – Thursday October 17th Phoenix Public Library 4:00 – 6:00 pm.

WEATHER REPORTING:In collaboration with NOAA (U.S. Weather Service) staff we are trying to facilitate the inclusion by Weather Reporters of more climate change discussion in reports and analyses.

DIVESTMENT:Develop a plan for divestment by city governments, religious groups, other organizations, educational institutions, and individuals from fossil

PROJECT TEAMS

PRESENTATIONS:Offers presentations (and movies) to regional community, school, and service groups on aspects of climate change and how to address it.

GOVERNMENT:Engage Federal, State and Local Representatives, Agencies, and their staffs in discussion regarding climate change and how to address it

LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT:Developing district-by-district summaries of climate change projections and consequences to educate local media and legislators.

NETWORKING:Explores local, regional, and national organizations with which SOCAN might develop a formal relationship, interact, or collaborate on projects.

ENERGY:Promoting energy efficiency and alternative energy.

PROJECT TEAMS

Please join us!

For more information:Visit http://socan.info

OrContact

Alan Journet alanjournet@gmail.com541-301-4107

or Kathy Conway kathleendconway@gmail.com

541-324-4501

Please join us!