“rogue valley climate trends & projections” league of women voters; march 2015 ...
TRANSCRIPT
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“Rogue Valley Climate Trends & Projections”League of Women Voters; March 2015
http://socan.info [email protected] 541-301-4107
Presentation (as ppt or pdf) on web site: click ‘http://socan.info/previous-presentations-handouts/’
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Shasta Lake, Summer 2014
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/22/1323804/-California-drought-63-trillion-gallons-of-groundwater-lost-and-the-surface-of-the-Earth-is-rising?detail=email
CA: water calendar year ended Sept 30th - third driest year on recordhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/03/california-drought-fourth-year_n_5928818.html?ir=Green&utm_campaign=100414&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Alert-green&utm_content=Title
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Oroville Lake, Summer
20112014
20112014
20112014
http://imgur.com/a/IgoUq
Fourth consecutive year of droughthttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/03/california-drought-fourth-year_n_5928818.html?ir=Green&utm_campaign=100414&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Alert-green&utm_content=Title
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Hart Lake, Oregon - Historical
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hart_Lake_(Oregon)#mediaviewer/File:Northern_Hart_Lake_(Lake_County,_Oregon_scenic_images)_(lakDA0090).jpg http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warner_Lakes
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Hart Lake, Oregon: Summer 2014Alan Journet
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From Interstate 5 –Saturday July 27th
Wolf Creek AreaNorth of Grants Pass
Medford Mail Tribune – Glendale Fire July 29th
This could be worst fire season in 10 years
Wildfire July 26th 2013 Thunderstorms
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August 7th 2013
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http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?OR
March 3rd 2015
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http://www.erh.noaa.gov/akq/brief/longrange.php#extend
90 Temperature Outlook 90 Precipitation Outlook
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THE MESSAGES
1) Climate change consequences are here and now
2) Projections are mainly continuations of current trends
For those who plan to nap through my presentation….
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Historic Trends are based on DATA
The Future is Based on Projections:
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Medford Average Temperature History
US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford
2014 Ave 58.9
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Rogue Basin Temperature History and Projections
1961-1990 Ave – 50.030F
Summer Ave – 63.580F Winter Ave – 38.170F
Business As Usual
1900190819161924193219401948195619641972198019881996200420122020202820362044205220602068207620842092210045
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
Rogue Basin Temperature Trend and Projections
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
CSIRO Annual Ave
HADLEY Annual Ave
MIROC Annual Ave
Years 1900 to 2100
Tem
pera
ture
⁰F
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Projected Increases
2035-2045Average1.6 – 4⁰F
(51.6 – 53.8⁰F)
Winter 1 – 3.5⁰F
(39.1 – 41.7⁰F)
Summer1 – 6⁰F
(64.4 – 69.5⁰F)
August 1 – 7.5⁰F
(67.1 – 73.5⁰F)
2075-2085Average
4.3 – 8.2⁰F(54.3 – 58.2⁰F)
Winter 3.4 – 6.3⁰F
(41.5 – 44.5⁰F)
Summer5.5 – 11.8⁰F
(69.1 – 75.4⁰F)
August6.7 – 16.8⁰F
(72.7 – 82.8⁰F)
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http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp
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http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp
> 8.0 F⁰> 8.0 F⁰
> 4.0 F⁰
> 8.0 F⁰
> 4.0 F⁰
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http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp
> 8.0 F⁰
> 4.0 F⁰
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http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp
> 8.0 F⁰
> 4. 0 F⁰
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US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford
Medford 100 Degree Days HistoryEXTREMESARE ALSO
IMPORTANT
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Heat Waves: Number of Days > 100oF
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
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Historic Precipitation
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
National increaseof 5%
Substantial RegionalDifference
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Medford Annual Precipitation - Inches Historic
US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford
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http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/apps/nccv_viewer.asp
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46
http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment
Projected Precipitati
onSeasonal Pattern –
HighEmissions Scenarios
= ‘Business As Usual’
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Projected Patterns in Light,
Moderate & Heavy
Precipitation Events by 2090s
ReducedLight
DrizzleDays
IncreasedHeavy
DownpourDays
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
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Mid-Elevation Snowfall Crater Lake 7,000 – 8,000 ft
1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
f(x) = − 20.8757407407407 x + 627.493641975309
Decade
Snow
fall
in In
ches
Approximately 25% decrease from 1930s.N. California 1950 - 2000
Below 7500’ 13% declineAbove 7500’ 12% increase
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http://downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/pdfs/climate-impacts-report.pdf
Declining snowpack leads toreduced water supply in our ‘natural’ reservoirs.
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
Red = decreasing snow waterBlue = increasing snow water
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Spring Snowmelt Dates - Critical in West
Longitude
Latit
ude
Impact on streams – both peak timing and flow rate
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
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Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
Projected
Stream Flow
Timing in Western States
Historic Stream
Flow Timing in Western States
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Projected PNW Run-off Timing
Run-off peak earlier
& lower
Late summer run-off lower
Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.
Warming & Loss of
Snowpack
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2006-2035 2036-2065 2066-2095
http://globalchange.mit.edu/files/document/MITJPSPGC_Reprint_2010-14.pdf
Palmer Drought Severity Index with Projections
Green: Decreasing Drought 7 months fewer per 30 years
Yellow- Red: Increasing Drought over 60 months more per 30 yrs
– Businessas
usual
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http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?west
U.S. Population affected by this drought: 52,257,282
70.05% of U.S. is D0 – D4 or above
Over 6 months
March 3rd 2015
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The Short-term Future
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.html
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• 0.5⁰C is the difference between a high fire year
and a low fire year.(
http://news.discovery.com/earth/climate-change-yellowstone-fires.html
)
Forest studies tell us wildfire frequency is high whenannual average temperature is high and
when snowmelt arrives early.
Western Wildfires & Climate Change
Exactly the historic trends and projections discussed
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Climate Change (Chaos) and the Jet Stream
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/03/07/climate-change-may-be-affecting-the-jet-stream/
COLD
WARM WARM
COLD
WARM
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http://www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
Changing U.S Growth Cold Hardiness Zones (Arbor Day Foundation)
Climate is shifting – gardeners may adjust
but soils and biomes cannot.
The map is based on the average annual
minimum winter temperature.
Zone 8a10 – 15⁰F
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A LocalExample
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http://www.sou.edu/envirostudies/gjones_docs/GJones%20Climate%20Change%20Geoscience%20Canada.pdf
Historical Apr – OctAverage 1961-1990
Projected Range for2035 - 2045
Projected Range for2075 - 2085
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2014
Global Temperatures 1880 – 2014cf 1951-1980
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A2.gif
0
0.36
-0.36
0.72
-0.72
1.08
⁰F
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http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5_WGI-12Doc2b_FinalDraft_Chapter12.pdf
Future Temperature Range (Beyond 2100)
3.6⁰F
7.2⁰F
10.8⁰F
14.4⁰F
18.0⁰F
21.6⁰F
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Managing the Unavoidable (Adaptation)
Managing ourselves and our environment in ways that minimize the threats posed;
Preparing ourselves and natural systems to withstand climate changes that are unavoidable and which we cannot minimize.
Bierbaum, R and J. Holdren, JP, MacCracken, M, Moss RH, Raven PH. 2007 Confronting climate change: Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable. http://www.sigmaxi.org/about/news/UNSEGonline.pdf
But this is not enough…..Avoiding the Unmanageable (Mitigation)
Reducing the release of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas
B UT
30 X CO2 296 X CO2
Approximately 75% > 75%
The Problem?
• Greenhouse gases released by human activity:• Carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen.
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Rogue Valley: Use of These Fuels
Private cars/trucksPublic TransitLocal Freight
Transportation
32%En
ergy24%
Materials = Stuff44%
Energy to make stuffEnergy to transport stuff here
Fossil Fuels for energy productionEnergy used in our homes
& local businessesNatural gas for heating
Clothes, shoes, ‘phones, TVs
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Our Future: Do The Math!
http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/how-many-gigatons-of-co2/
There IS Urgency!!
http://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/7/521/2014/essdd-7-521-2014.pdf
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We Have Choices! Individually & Collectively
Money inflows& outflows
Back in the Day… Now….
EnergyAccounting
GHG
CO2
CarbonAccounting
Hopium
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http://socan.info
Co-Facilitators:Alan Journet [email protected]
Kathy Conway [email protected]
MEETINGS: (Last Tuesday)Special Topic Presentation 6:00 pm – 6:30pm
General Meeting 6:30 – 7:30 pmWhat We Can Do:
Political Action Activities: http://socan.info/state-political-action/ Medford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.
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• Questions?
Any comments or questions ????