rogers 2010 10-27-psp_s4_south_sound_forestland_conversion
TRANSCRIPT
SOUTH SOUND FORESTLAND CONVERSIONSouth Sound Science Symposium, October 27th, 2010
Luke Rogers, Research Scientist, University of Washington
Integrated Statewide Parcel Data
Washington Forestland Database
Concepts
What is the rate of forestland conversion?
What is the current conversion risk? What are landowners giving? What are landowners getting? What are landowners willing to do? Concerns Opportunities
Land Use 1988
Land Use 1996
Land Use 2004
Forest land use change ~1.8% per yearForest cover change ~0.67% per year
South Sound Land Use Change 1988 - 2004
Mixed Use118,0
00 Urban or Subur-
ban84,000 Remained
For-es-
t496,000
1978-1979 1988-1989 2001
2037 1901 1885
40123833
3389
16361662
1763
95
281In/Out of FIA Inventory
National Forest
Reserve
Other Public
Forest Industry
Other Private
Owner Group
Net ownership change
75
48
56
26
51
123
24
50
23
Non-timberland
Right-of-way
Urban
Agriculture
Timberland Ownership Net Flow
South Sound Conversion Risk
What are Landowners Giving?
< 5 miles 5 - 10 miles
10 - 20 miles
20 - 40 miles
> 40 miles
$0$5,000
$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000
Foregone Revenue for Development by Parcel Size and Distance to an
Urban Area < 10 acres
10 - 20 acres
Distance to an Urban Growth Area (miles)Avera
ge F
ore
go
ne R
even
ue
($/a
cre
)
What are Landowners Getting?
Enacted by the Legislature in 1971 A typical 40 acre parcel in the South Sound pays
$40 in property tax when enrolled in the DFL program vs. $1,036 at highest and best use (HBU).
Add Forest Excise Tax ~$10/acre/year = $440 FFR costs ~$1,200-$2,000/yr for that same
parcel 311,000 acres of Designated Forest Lands $10 million tax-shift to non-DFL properties =
$0.13/$1,000 = $53/yr for a $400k home
Development Compensation? Equalize the difference between the
market value of forest lands and the net present value of managing for timber on those same lands.
Using 5% discount rate = forest NPV rate Contiguous ownerships at least 20 acres,
undeveloped, and parcels are at least 5 acres
$96m Annuity over $76bn = $1.26/$1,000 = $500/yr for a $400k home
Willingness to Participate
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $3000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Incentive Payment ($/acre)
Lan
dow
ner
En
rollm
en
t
Willingness to Participate
Per Acre Payment
Contract
Length
25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 25010-year contract 7.7% 17.0% 33.7% 51.3% 65.5% 76.4% 87.1% 93.0% 96.6% 97.5%30-year contract 0.8% 2.6% 7.7% 17.5% 34.3% 51.6% 66.2% 77.0% 87.6% 93.1%50-year contract 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 2.6% 7.8% 17.6% 34.6% 52.4% 66.6% 77.3%Perpetuity 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 2.9% 8.4% 19.3% 35.7% 53.4% 67.4% 78.1%
Expected acreage enrolled, percent available acreage enrolled, total payments Per Acre Payment 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250
Contract
Length
10 1700.83 3384.90 6663.34 10266.55 13118.97 15629.26 17723.22 18994.42 20200.44 20660.94 8.0% 15.8% 31.2% 48.0% 61.3% 73.1% 82.9% 88.8% 94.4% 96.6% $42,521 $169,245 $499,751 $1,026,655 $1,639,871 $2,344,389 $3,101,564 $3,798,885 $4,545,100 $5,165,23430 227.19 745.74 1700.83 3565.59 6707.00 10285.30 13216.62 15699.66 17755.08 19014.27 1.1% 3.5% 8.0% 16.7% 31.4% 48.1% 61.8% 73.4% 83.0% 88.9% $5,680 $37,287 $127,562 $356,559 $838,374 $1,542,795 $2,312,909 $3,139,932 $3,994,893 $4,753,56750 0.00 14.72 227.19 745.74 1710.95 3593.63 6763.01 10415.67 13368.54 15772.30 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 3.5% 8.0% 16.8% 31.6% 48.7% 62.5% 73.7% $0 $736 $17,039 $74,574 $213,869 $539,044 $1,183,527 $2,083,134 $3,007,921 $3,943,076Perpetuity 0.00 14.72 371.81 822.24 1784.96 3811.77 6964.03 10592.30 13505.95 15965.01 0.0% 0.1% 1.7% 3.8% 8.3% 17.8% 32.6% 49.5% 63.1% 74.6% $0 $736 $27,886 $82,224 $223,120 $571,765 $1,218,704 $2,118,460 $3,038,840 $3,991,253
Lin, Sonja. (2010) Conservation Easements as a Strategy to Retain Working Forests
What are Landowners Willing to Do?
Use the forestland owner survey results to determine, for a watershed, how much income would be needed to buy continued forest management
Used $200/acre/year $70 million/year = $0.92/$1,000 =
$368/yr for a $400k home
Concerns
Forestlands are more at risk now than ever Loss of infrastructure, aging population,
REITs, population pressure DFL program helped to mitigate risk into
the 1990s DFL program expensive for local
communities Regulatory takings trump tax incentives
2x - 4x Zoning – unintended consequences?
Wear et al. – between 20 and 70 ppsm Pf drops from 75% to 25%
Opportunities
93% of small owners willing to commit to 10 year easement for $200/acre/year, 53% for 50+
Statewide balance of tax incentive programs rather than at the county level
PSP Local Improvement/Utility Districts Mitigation funds/markets Development right markets (not just
TDR)
