riset ekonomi mingguan 22 october 2013

8/13/2019 Riset Ekonomi Mingguan 22 October 2013

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RISET EKONOMI MINGGUAN

Analisis Pasar dan Ekonomi Selasa, 22 Oktober 201

This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an

offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein hasbeen obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

ngga Cipta

conomist

6221 2854 2396

[email protected]

asan m nggu a uOptimisme mendominasi pergerakkan pasar global minggu

Setelah terperangkap di dalam kecemasan shutdown dan anca

default AS, investor kembali fokus ke penundaan tapering the

Terjadinya shutdown diperkirakan memperlambat pertumbu

ekonomi AS dan penyerapan tenaga kerja. Indeks S&P 500 y

minggu lalu naik 2.42% w-w menjadi pemicu utama pengu

indeks saham global. Jakarta Composite Index berhasil meng

0.59% w-w bersamaan dengan rupiah yang juga menguat 1.46%

w. Dollar Index yang terpangkas 0.88% w-w mendorong pengu

hampir seluruh mata uang di dunia. Pasar obligasi juga terdo

oleh optimisme terlihat dari terpangkasnya tingkat imbal h

Dibandingkan dengan US Treasury 10 thn yang hanya tu

10.9bps, tingkat imbal hasil Obligasi Pemerintah Indonesia l

unggul setelah turun 50.7bps w-w. Data 17 Oktober menunjuk

persentase kepemilikan asing pada obligasi pemerintah m

stabil di kisaran 30%.

Walaupun aliran dana asing mulai kembali masuk dan kurs ru

menguat, tampaknya kondisi likuiditas dollar belum memua

Bank Indonesia. Minggu lalu BI kembali sepakat dengan Ko

Selatan untuk melakukan currency swap sebesar USD10bln

juga menjaga kursnya di kisaran 10,300 di atas kurs NDF 1bln y

hanya berkutat di kisaran 10,800-11,200 per dollar.

Pasar minggu iniDi awal minggu ini penguatan di pasar mulai reda, tetapi d

pekerjaan AS yang diumumkan Selasa malam mengembaloptimisme investor. Data Nonfarm payrolls diumumkan ha

bertambah 148 ribu, jauh di bawah ekspektasi pasar yang

ribu. Walupun tingkat pengangguran turun ke 7.2%, pasar me

bahwa shutdown yang terjadi menghambat penyerapan ten

kerja sehingga taperingakan molor lebih lama lagi. Data terse

harus dikonfirmasi oleh FOMC meeting di akhir Okto

Sementara itu survei bloomberg terhadap jadwal tape

menunjukkan pesimisme bahwa the Fed akan melakukan

dalam waktu dekat. Hasil survei memprediksi the Fed akan m

melakukan tapering pada 18-19 Maret tahun depan den

penurunan pembelian obligasi bulanan dari USD85blnUSD70bln. Yang mengejutkan, pada akhir tahun depan the

diharapkan sudah tidak lagi melakukan pembelian obligasi.

Optimisme penundaan tapering masih akan membuat pelema

dollar terjaga sehingga mendukung penguatan mata uang lai

dunia. Kurs rupiah NDF juga diperkirakan menguat walaupu

sepertinya masih nyaman untuk menjaga kurs JISDOR di kisa

11,300an.

urrencies w-w%

ndices w-w%

onds w-w bps

ommodities w-w%

-1.46%

-0.88%-0.74% -0.71%

-0.28%

0.06%

0.30%

1.06%

2.00%

1.50%

1.00%

0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

IDR JISDOR Dollar Index USD/THB USD/MYR USD/BRL USD/PHP USD/INR EUR/USD

0.41%0.52%

0.59%

0.78%

1.09%

1.36%

1.61%

1.82% 1.85%

2.09%

2.42%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

S TI H ang

Seng

JC I K LC I Ni kk ei

225

KOSPI DAX PCOMP SET FTSE 100 S&P 500

(0.70)(3.30) (3.70)

(10.94)

(15.00)

(50.70)

60.00)

50.00)

40.00)

30.00)

20.00)

10.00)

-

Philly 10y Bund 10y Japanese 10y UST 10y Brazil 10y Indonesian 10y

-1.20% -1.19%

0.00%

0.42%

0.89%

3.46%

2.00%

1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

Oil Brent Oil WTI Rice CPO Coal Gold

rce: Bloomberg
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


2/4

2PT SAMUEL SEKURITAS INDONESIA


This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as anoffer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein hasbeen obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Chart 1. Rupiah and Jakarta Composite Index

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

7/24/2013

7/26/2013

7/30/2013

8/1/2013

8/5/2013

8/7/2013

8/9/2013

8/13/2013

8/15/2013

8/19/2013

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10/10/2013

10/14/2013

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10/22/2013

10/24/2013

10/26/2013

10/28/2013

10/30/2013

11/1/2013

11/3/2013

11/5/2013

11/7/2013

11/9/2013

11/11/2013

11/13/2013

Better

Chinas

GDP

US

nonfarm

payroll

FOMC

meeting

Inflation and

trade figures

USD/IDR NDF 1 mth

Jakarta

Composite

Index

Source: Bloomberg


3/4

3PT SAMUEL SEKURITAS INDONESIA


This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as anoffer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein hasbeen obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Chart 2. Real Output Chart 3. Prices

Chart 4. Interest Rates Chart 5. Trade

Chart 6. Foreign Reserves Chart 7. Currency

6.36%

5.81%

7.55%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

20.00%

5.50%

5.60%

5.70%

5.80%

5.90%

6.00%

6.10%

6.20%

6.30%

6.40%

Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13

GDP y-y Investment y-y (RHS)

8.40%

4.72%

2.50%

3.50%

4.50%

5.50%

6.50%

7.50%

8.50%

9.50%

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13

Inflation y-y% Core y-y%

7.25%

5.75%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%

6.50%

7.00%

7.50%

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13

BI rate JIBOR ON

(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

(500)

-

500

1,000

1,500

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

Trade Balance (LHS) Exports ImportsUSD mln USD mln

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

36%

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

Foreign on Bonds % Foreign Reserves (USD bln) - RHS11,350

70

75

80

85

90

95

1008,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13

USD/IDR

Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Index (RHS in

reverse order)

Source: Bloomberg, Bank Indonesia, Ministry of Finance, IMF, BIS


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This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an

offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein hasbeen obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

Research Team

Muhamad Alfatih, CSA, CFTeSenior Technical AnalystIndices, equities, commodities,currencies +6221 2854 [email protected]

Muhammad IsfandiQuantitative Technical AnalystIndices, equities +6221 2854 8329

[email protected]

Rangga CiptaEconomist+6221 2854 8396

[email protected]

Adrianus Bias Prasu ryoHead of Equity ResearchTelecommunication, Cement,Construction, Toll Road +6221 2854 [email protected]

Joseph PangaribuanAnalystBanking, Heavy equipment, Auto,MiningContractors, Cigarettes, Plantation+6221 2854 8144

[email protected]

Yualdo T. YudoprawiroAnalys tMetal Mining, Coal Mining,Consumer Goods +6221 2854 [email protected]

Benedictus Agung SwandonoAnalys tProperty +6221 2854 [email protected]

Todd ShowalterAnalystSmall Cap+6221 2854 [email protected]

AizaResearch Associate+6221 2854 [email protected]

Equity Sales TeamAndie Pena Director of Equity Sales+6221 2854 [email protected]

Lucia IrawatiHead Unit of Equity+6221 2854 [email protected]

Iwan SetiadiHead Unit of Equity+6221 2854 [email protected]

Ferry KhusaeriHead Unit of Equity+6221 2854 [email protected]

Peter HamsjaHead Unit of Equity+6221 2854 [email protected]

Equity Institutional Sales Team

Indra S. Affandi Senior Institutional Sales+6221 2854 [email protected]

Yulianah Senior Institutional Sales+6221 2854 [email protected]

Online Trading Sales Team

Nugroho NuswantoroHead of Marketing OLT+6221 2854 [email protected]

Rina LestariSPV Customer Service+6221 2854 [email protected]
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riset ekonomi mingguan 22 october 2013

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