ricardo cuenca iep institute of peruvian studies siep peruvian society for educational research
TRANSCRIPT
Public education in Metropolitan Lima: In danger of extinction?
Ricardo CuencaIEP Institute of Peruvian Studies
SIEP Peruvian Society for Educational Research
Contents
1. Metropolitan Lima: a new city2. Research questions, hypothesis and
objectives3. Mapping of private schools in
Metropolitan Lima4. Outlook for private schools in
Metropolitan Lima5. Future of public schools in
Metropolitan Lima
Metropolitan Lima: a new city
Demographic characteristicsEconomic characteristics
Metropolitan Lima: a new city
Lima: Demographic characteristics Lima, Peru’s capital,
is the second-largest desert city in the world after Cairo
The estimated population in 2010 was 9,160,384 inhabitants (28% of total)
The area is 2,811.65 Km² (0.2% of the country)
Population density is 19.3 inhabitants per Km2
Lima: Economic characteristics
Real monthly average per-capita income in Metropolitan Lima is 58% higher than in
other urban areas 72% higher than in
rural areas
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Rural Other urbanMetropolitan Lima
Research questions, objectives and hypothesis
Research questions
What is the future of public schools in Metropolitan Lima?
Who is demanding private basic education in Lima?
What is the quality of private schools in Metropolitan Lima?
Who would be the future users of public schools in Lima?
Hypothesis
Demand for public basic education services in Metropolitan Lima could be reduced to the most excluded families, in a scenario in which the supply of private education
increases, despite the quality of the service
economic growth is sustained family size remains the same (or
decreases)
Objectives
Analyze the future situation of public schools in Metropolitan Lima in light of the economic and socio-demographic changes in the country project the enrollment rate in primary education
in private schools in Metropolitan Lima identify relationships between poverty levels in
districts and the existence of low-performing private schools
discuss the role of public schools in light of the expansion of private education
Mapping of private schools in Metropolitan Lima
Location of schoolsCharacteristics of schoolsQuality of education
Location of schools – I
Location of schools – II The majority of schools in Lima are private The higher the income, the larger the number of
private schools The lower the income, the greater the demand for
private schools
Cieneg
uilla
Pach
acam
acLim
aLu
rin
Chaclaca
yo
Rimac
Barra
nco
La V
ictor
ia
San Ju
an d
e Mira
flore
s
Comas
Villa M
aria D
el T
riunfo
Villa E
l Salva
dor
Mag
dalen
a Del
Mar
San M
artin
de
Porre
s
Mag
dalen
a Vie
ja
Jesu
s Mar
ia
La M
olin
a
Santia
go de
Surco
Mira
flore
s0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Private Public Poverty
Characteristics of schools – I
Private schools are “smaller” (student enrollment)
San Is
idro
Jesu
s Mar
ia
La M
olin
a
Mag
dalen
a Del
Mar
San M
iguel
Barra
nco
Breña
Lima
Chaclaca
yo
San M
artin
de
Porre
s
Los Oliv
os
Indep
enden
cia
Comas
Villa E
l Salva
dor AteLu
rin
Villa M
aria D
el T
riunfo
Carab
ayllo
Pach
acam
ac0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Privada Pública
Characteristics of schools – II
The number of teachers is slightly higher in private schools
Lima
Ancon Ate
Barra
nco
Breña
Carab
ayllo
Chaclac
ayo
Chorri
llos
Ciene
guill
a
Comas
El A
gust
ino
Inde
pend
encia
Jesu
s Mar
ia
La M
olin
a
La V
ictor
iaLin
ce
Los Oliv
os
Lurig
anch
oLu
rin
Magda
lena
Del
Mar
Magda
lena
Vie
ja
Miraflo
res
Pach
acam
ac
Puen
te P
iedr
a
Rimac
San
Borja
San
Isidr
o
San
Juan
de
Lurig
anch
o
San
Juan
de
Mira
flore
s
San
Luis
San
Martin
de
Porre
s
San
Migue
l
Sant
a Ani
ta
Sant
iago
de
Surc
o
Surq
uillo
Villa
El S
alva
dor
Villa
Mar
ia D
el T
riunf
o0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Publica Privada
Quality of education – I
The quality of private education is not uniform
Chaclaca
yo
Pach
acam
ac
Surquillo
Villa E
l Salva
dor
Carab
ayllo
Rimac
San Ju
an d
e Lu
rigan
cho
Comas
Breña
San M
artin
de
Porre
s
Los Oliv
os
Lurig
anch
o
Santa
Anita
Jesu
s Mar
ia
Mag
dalen
a Del
Mar
Santia
go de
Surco
Mira
flore
s
San B
orja
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
index of household income % of students tested at Level 2
Quality of education – II
Private education is of higher quality in wealthier districts
Chaclaca
yo
Pach
acam
ac
Surquillo
Villa E
l Salva
dor
Carab
ayllo
Rimac
San Ju
an d
e Lu
rigan
cho
Comas
Breña
San M
artin
de
Porre
s
Los Oliv
os
Lurig
anch
o
Santa
Anita
Jesu
s Mar
ia
Mag
dalen
a Del
Mar
Santia
go de
Surco
Mira
flore
s
San B
orja
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
index of household income % of students tested at Level 2
Outlook for private schools in Metropolitan Lima
Increase in supply of private educationSustained economic growthFamily size
Increase in supply of private education Only for primary education…
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
20162017
20182019
20202021
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Private Public
Sustained economic growth
The districts with the greatest economic growth used to be the poorest … that trend continues
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
growth 04-09 population
Family size
The number of family members could drop from 4.5 to 3.5
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
20172018
20192020
2021
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
# of members projection
Future of public schools in Metropolitan Lima
Principal findingThe “dream” of private educationLack of interest in public schoolsEducation for human capitalFinal questions
Principal finding
If this scenario holds true, the analysis shows a high probability of: displacement of public education by
private education concentration of public education among
the city’s most excluded groups
The “dream” of private education
Quality of teachers (associated with higher salaries)
Parental control and oversight Better infrastructure and equipment
(technology) Inefficiency of the State compared to
private institutions High levels of corruption in public
administration Profitability of investment in private
education
Lack of interest in public schools
Exceptional measures take the place of regular policies
“Managing scarcity” in education policies for public schools
Poverty is not offset by high-quality education in public schools
“Free” public education?
Education for human capital
The rise of the knowledge production and information management in modern societies
The primacy of effectiveness and profitability as criteria
The educational system must allocate and redistribute resources effectively if it is to increase its educational capital (individual)
Final questions
To whom will schools belong in the future? Families? The State? Private enterprise?
What roles will the State play? What will happen to its traditional role of “taking care” of citizens?
Have we reached the end of one form of organization of the educational system?
Is the private school the future of urban education?
Lima: a city of constrasts
¡Thank you very much!
Ricardo CuencaIEP Institut of Peruvian Studies
SIEP Peruvian Society for Educational Research