rgs ibg 2011 conference woodburn
TRANSCRIPT
Is the British rail freight market becoming more diversified?
Dr Allan WoodburnTransport Studies Department
University of Westminster, London
Study aim
• To investigate whether the rail freight market in Britain has been diversifying away from the traditional bulk commodity flows
Relevance of study
• Long-term decline in rail freight market share from 1950s to 1990s
• Shift from wagonload to trainload operation• Simultaneous concentration on bulk commodities
(e.g. coal, aggregates, steel)• Led to limited role for and narrow focus of rail
freight market – not much activity “downstream” in the supply chain
• General desire for rail to play greater role – sustainability reasons
A (very) simplified supply chain
Raw materials Processing Distribution
to customer
Significant rail use Limited rail use
Declining importance in UK Increasing importance in UK
Wagonload rail freight – mix of goods
Trainload rail freight - aggregates
Composition of British rail freight market (1998-99 – 2010-11; freight moved)
1998-99
1999-00
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Coal Metals ConstructionOil & petroleum International Domestic intermodalOther
Source: ORR (2011)
Key trends in rail freight volumes
• Bulk commodities share increased from 59% in 1998-99 to 63% in 2010-11, but mixed pattern:– Large increase in ‘coal’ from 1998-99 to 2006-07,
with general decline since– Decline in ‘international’, particularly from 2000-01
to 2001-02, with fairly minor fluctuations thereafter– Year-on-year increase in ‘domestic intermodal’ since
2001-02, rising from 18 per cent of the market to 30 per cent
– Considerable decline in ‘other’ since 2003-04
Bulk share increased - no diversification?
• So, little structural change in the rail freight market since the 1990s?
• Some hints of change, particularly with growth in intermodal:– Container traffic to/from deep-sea ports– Containers and swapbodies through Channel Tunnel– Containers and swapbodies on Anglo-Scottish corridor
• Limited evidence of diversification other than intermodal
Intermodal examples
Current rail freight use in the supply chain
Raw materials Processing Distribution
to customer
Significant use Limited use
Declining importance in UK Increasing importance in UK
Intermodal rail freight
Limited use
Traditional rail freight
Significant use
Conclusions
• Key bulk sectors still dominate rail freight market
• Other flows in traditional wagons have been in (irreversible?) decline
• Intermodal volumes have grown by 60% since 1998-99
• While not hugely significant in volume terms, evidence of some diversification